John Davis is a North Carolina political analyst, writer and speaker. He is an authority on evaluating candidates, with a forecast accuracy of 96% (1286 of 1399 races since 2000). Campaigns & Elections magazine named Davis one of 2012’s Top 10 "Political Influencers" in North Carolina.
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Contact: John N. Davis, 919-696-3859; johndavis@johndavisconsulting.com
This report is the final in a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
Today, I am adding Rule #10: No Matter How Often You Read it, the Tortoise Wins and the Hare Loses. Slow and steady is the final key to longevity.
Today, Republicans are the ones with the absolute power in North Carolina. They, like the hare in The Tortoise and the Hare, risk becoming vulnerable by racing so fast to the public policy finish line that they lose sight of the need to bring the voters along with them. Without the support of North Carolina voters, Republican leaders, like Obama, will cause their party a world of hurt.
I say all of this to amplify the most startling fact from the 2012 elections: only about half of the state’s voters are native North Carolinians. According to the March 2013 North Carolina Data-Net, “… barely half of the state’s voters were native North Carolinians. Forty-nine percent [49%] were born elsewhere.”
Why should the growth of new urban voters matter to Republicans? Because the study shows that those who moved to North Carolina in the last 5-to-10 years voted for Obama by 62% over Romney’s 38%.
In just 20 years, our voter rolls have grown from 3.4 million to 6.4 million. That growth rate is projected to continue for decades, steadily shrinking the percentage of native North Carolina voters.
As to the impact of our growth on partisan politics, the Republican share is also steadily shrinking.
In 2006, North Carolina registered Republicans numbered 35% of the 5.5 million voters. By 2010, the Republican share of all registered voters was down to 32% of 6.2 million voters. Today, April 24, 2013, North Carolina Republicans number only 30.8% of 6,624,136 voters.
“It turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
NY Times, 3/26/2013, regarding Pres. Obama’s new Organizing for Action “Social Welfare” organization
If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
“I think this is a vast overreaction …,” Krauthammer told Bill O’Reilly, “He’s a leading Republican, obviously presidential timbre. He’s got the highest popularity of any governor and he’s in a blue state.” Charles Krauthammer on CPAC’s snub of Republican Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey
Last year’s presidential race was the third in a row in which young voters favored the Democrat over the Republican. In 2004, John Kerry won the 18-29 year-old group by 9 points; in 2008, Barack Obama won the group by 34 points and by 23 points in 2012.
By way of partisan contrast, Ronald Reagan won 59% of 18-29 year olds in 1984. Those young Reagan conservatives are still conservative, and still more likely to vote Republican. However, they are now the keepers of a conservative litmus test nationally and here in North Carolina that Reagan could not pass.
Ronald Reagan would not have been welcomed to this weekend’s CPAC conference.
The next time a Republican man wants to say something about a gender-sensitive issue, like rape or contraception or reproductive rights, he should test his views over the intercom system at the nearest Target. Anytime between 5:30 pm and 9:30 pm; when working women shop.
John Davis Political Report, February 14, 2013
Only women who can afford to shop at Talbots go to Talbots. However, those who can afford to shop at Talbots also shop at Target, along with every other women’s demographic from age and education to family status. Single and married women with and without children; women with high school diplomas and those with university degrees; shop clerks and judges. Liberals shopping with conservatives. Target.
Why do women love Target? Because Target’s design strategy is to satisfy the needs of their guests, simplify their lives, make them feel great, at an affordable price for all. All women.
Should Republicans adopt a similar approach to rebranding the party for women voters? Satisfying needs? Simplifying lives? Making all women feel welcome?
Lady Justice may be blindfolded, and those scales she holds may be balanced, but if the case impacts the outcome of political races, Lady Justice will take that blindfold off to check the political party of the plaintiffs … then she will adjust the scales accordingly. John Davis Political Report, February 5, 2013
However, remember, North Carolina is a purple, battleground state trending blue. Blue is Democratic. Most of the growth in the next several decades will be in urban areas; Democrat-friendly areas.
If Republicans want to keep the majority on the appellate courts, they should:
“The typical Republican minority outreach program is a sham. It’s like the Republican ads with one or two African Americans or Hispanics standing around the candidate with a bunch of white people. Like the Minority Outreach staffer with no budget.” John Davis Political Report, 1/25/2013
When minority voters hear Republican leaders speak passionately about immigration, deficit spending, the national debt, taxes, entitlements, jobs and the economy, what they actually hear them say is, It’s time we put people aside and do what’s right. Conservatism over caring.
“Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity.” John Davis Political Report, 1/17/2013
Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. It’s true nationally and here in North Carolina. They are more moderate than conservative, more pro-government than anti-government, more independent than partisan, more diverse and more socially tolerant.
Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity; and, the best hope for resurgent Democrats.
John Davis Political Report - January 11, 2013: How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years. Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable; Rule #2: Criminal indictments will scare off contributors
“Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding.” John Davis Political Report, 1/11/2013
The arrogance of Democratic invulnerability in North Carolina has led to scandal after scandal, indictment after indictment, embarrassment after embarrassment, the loss of legislative power and political dominance, even scandal and academic fraud at our most revered universities.
Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding. That’s what happened to Democrats during the last ten years.
No leader is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
“They lived in the cellular shadows, effectively immune to traditional get-out-the-vote efforts.” Time magazine’s Michael Sherer, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters
Geek up! It wasn’t the data; it was the geeks who knew how to manage the data that gave Obama an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstar consultants. It wasn’t the mobile devices like smartphones and tablets; it was the geeks who discovered how apps can allow friends to knock on “new doors” of friends. Digital doors. If you want to contact young voters, to persuade them, to get them to volunteer or contribute to your campaign, to get them to go out and vote, you are going to have to geek up.
“Davis is actually unaffiliated.” News & Observer’s UNDER THE DOME, 12/21/2012
Biggest Winner: The North Carolina Republican Party. They invested early in a major commitment to personal voter contact, increasing the number of regional headquarters from 12 in 2010 to 24 in 2012; from 8 paid Get-Out-The-Vote staff in 2010 to 67 paid staffers in 2012. They neutralized Obama’s historic 2008 turnout advantage, thereby making this state the only swing state that Obama lost. Conservative Super PACs turned out to be the biggest losers of the 2012 election year. The biggest of the biggest losers? National Rifle Association.
North Carolina business and agricultural leaders did not leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left them.
By alienating business/agribusiness, the federal and state Democratic parties have lost their most reliable source of political contributions. It’s their greatest loss. North Carolina has become the Jurassic Park of pro-business Democrats. Extinct.
The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles.
The big mistake the Obama camp made this year in investing in North Carolina was in thinking that Obama carried the state in 2008 because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Fact: Obama was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party during the past 10 years and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party argue for a new era of GOP dominance in the Old North State.
Erskine Bowles was more than a serious threat to McCrory’s quest to be governor, his candidacy would have reinvigorated the North Carolina Democratic Party by attracting much needed national money and talent. Now, the steep political decline continues for Democrats as NC Republicans ascend to dominance.
EDITOR’S NOTE:
John Davis Political Report – UPDATE: July 16, 2012: North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in July 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in July 2012. No power, no money.
There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results. According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”
Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, has $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, has $714,000 cash. Game over.
If the elections were held today, the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party are so profound that they would be incapable of stopping a Republican takeover of all three branches of North Carolina state government. For the first time in the lifetime of any North Carolinian, if the elections were held today, voters would likely elect a Republican Governor, Republican majorities to the Council of State, state Senate, state House of Representatives, state Supreme Court and the Court of Appeals.
“What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?” Jesus, New Testament, Luke 15:4-7
Although my North Carolina forecasts were dead on, including my forecast since Labor Day 2011 that Obama would not carry the state again, I changed my forecast that Obama would win the U.S. Presidential race in early October. Mistake. My lost sheep.
I got all 13 congressional races right; 47 of 49 state Senate races right, 114 of 120 state House races right. I got the Governor and Council of State right; and Supreme Court Justice Newby. But, the lost sheep.
Two years ago, November 2, 2010, North Carolina Republicans won majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly for the first time since 1898.
They had exclusive legislative power. Power meant money.
One year ago, on July 27, 2011, legislative district maps, drawn by Republicans for the first time in over a hundred years, were enacted into law by the North Carolina General Assembly.
Yesterday, November 6, 2012, legislative election results were predictable. Maps + Money = Majority.
“Four years ago it was cool to be for Obama. Today, it’s cool to be independent.” Student in Hodding Carter’s Public Policy 70 Seminar at UNC-Chapel Hill
If President Obama loses his race for a second term, it will be because he disappointed his base on matters of the economy. Jobs. Unemployment. Debt. Disappointed his base.
I suspect that most of Hodding Carter’s students will vote for President Obama. I also suspect that they are not volunteering their time to turn out voters in record numbers this year; that they do not have Obama posters on their dorm walls.
Question from CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Monday, October 22, to Paul Begala, senior Democratic political consultant to pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action: “Has he [Obama] given up on North Carolina?” Paul Begala: “Yes.”
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s the key game-changing structural deficiency for the state Democrats. The other is the loss of enthusiasm for Obama.
The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election.
Mr. Romney should face what didn’t work the past 12 years. Republicans took some wrong turns, and they know it. Centrists and independents know it, too. Candor here, delivered in a spirit of honesty, without animus, would seem not like a repudiation but a refreshment. And this would be deeply undercutting of Mr. Obama, who needs this race to be a fight between two parties, not a fight between a past that didn’t work and a future that can.
The Bush family will understand. They respect politics, and its practitioners. Peggy Noonan, The Long Race Has Begun, Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2012
Senate, Republican House of Representatives Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America; National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup; CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem
With Public Policy Polling stating that Gov. Perdue’s approval is now the worst in America, with the National Journal reporting that NC is the #1 state for a GOP governor pickup, and with CNN concluding that Obama has a math problem if he thinks he can carry North Carolina again, I repeat last weeks conclusion: Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity are what lead me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
John Davis is a political analyst, writer and consultant who has followed North Carolina politics for 27 years. He is one of the state’s leading authorities on evaluating the strengths of candidates and predicting the outcome of political races. During the six election cycles since the beginning of this decade, Davis projected the winner in 1286 of 1399 North Carolina campaigns, for an accuracy rate of 96%.
“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
“Rave Reviews!” “Informative, insightful, entertaining”
“To meet Leadership North Carolina’s mission to inform, engage, and lead, top-notch speakers are essential. John’s presentation to the forty-four members of Leadership North Carolina Class XIX during our Government session was outstanding. Providing a baseline through the lens of the 2008 and 2010 elections helped our class understand the outlook for 2012. John’s always a hit and receives rave reviews!” Brian Etheridge, President, Leadership North Carolina, November 2011
“About 50% of the 250 people at our event came up to me afterwards raving about John Davis’ speech. He was both informative and witty. We could not have found a better keynote speaker!” Hal Routh, VP Business Development, Balfour Beatty Construction, October 2011
John Davis has made over 1,000 speeches in North Carolina and throughout the United States. He is known for his thoughtful analysis, his lively and humorous presentations, his candor and his accurate forecasts.
Sign up today for Davis’ 2013 speech titled, North Carolina’s New Political Reality. John discusses the dramatic shift in North Carolina’s center of political power to urban voters. Davis says they are, “More Moderate than Conservative, More Pro-Government than Anti-Government, More Independent than Partisan, More Diverse and More Tolerant … Voters who Demand to be Recognized and Respected by those Elected to Manage the Most Important Problems List.”
FEES: The fee for Triangle-based speeches is $500. The fee for all other state venues is $1,000 plus travel expenses. Out of state venues is $2,500 plus travel expenses.
“John- Thanks again for speaking as the keynote at the [North Carolina Agribusiness Council's 43rd Annual Meeting] dinner Monday night. I’ve heard nothing but RAVE reviews.” T. Ray Best, Duke Energy; President, NC Agribusiness Council, August, 2011
“John’s presentation to the National League of Cities Board of Directors in which he reviewed the politics and results of the 2008 presidential campaign and the mid-term elections and foreshadowed factors to watch in the 2012 races was informative, insightful, and entertaining!” Carolyn Coleman, Dir., Federal Relations, National League of Cities, Washington, D.C., July, 2011
“For over 15 years, members of the North Carolina Dental Political Action Committee have depended on Mr. Davis’ presentations at our annual sessions to keep abreast of happenings. No one has ever left the room when Mr. Davis speaks. At our past annual session several out of state guests stated ‘Where do we get a John Davis for our state?” Dr. Al Roseman, D.D.S, Wilmington, NC
While North Carolina Republicans lead the state during the 2013-2014 session of the North Carolina General Assembly, Democrats will be plotting and scheming how to retake the majority. John Davis is the best unbiased source observing and reporting to you candidly on the political implications of every move made by both parties.
Call John Davis today at 919-696-3859 to discuss a political investment consulting relationship.
2012 John Davis Consulting
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