“There’s no real financial infrastructure under the [state] Republican Party, and I reckon building one will take a long time,” he said. And doing so will be “sort of like straightening out a train wreck.” – Carter Wrenn, NC Republican Consultant

This is a very fragile time for North Carolina House Democrats and Republicans.  They all know that to some extent their political fortunes this year are tied to the results of President Obama’s reform agenda, beginning with healthcare legislation.  If he prevails, the value of his stock as a reform leader will rebound and the tarnished image of the Democratic Party will be polished up a bit.  If he fails, all bets are off.  Republicans will have a huge surge in momentum which will yield more investors making larger investments, an event that would be devastating for Democrats who have always been able to count on a financial advantage to win the close races.

I am persuaded that Obama is smart enough to come out of the healthcare reform debate with a win.  He has to.  His entire agenda is at stake.  He will make whatever sacrifices are necessary to declare a victory, “… a victory for the uninsured and the underinsured who can’t afford care.”

The greater likelihood is that by the time the May primaries roll around, the healthcare debate will be old news.  Obama will be directing his energies to the other problematic issues for Democrats by then: the economy, jobs, and big government spending.  There will be an uptick in the job approval numbers for the President and the Congress, and most incumbents will win their primaries.  There have only been two states with primaries thus far:  Illinois and Texas.  All incumbent members of congress seeking reelection won their races. [click to continue…]

{ 0 comments }