Forecasting Likely 2022 State and Federal Election Results by the Top 10 Wrong Track Reasons Top Ten Reasons Voters Say Nation is On the Wrong Track September 23, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 9 8:13 am Voters say US on Wrong Track: The September 2022 NBC News national political poll shows that almost 7-of-10 registered voters
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Forecasting Likely 2022 State and Federal Election Results by the Top 10 Wrong Track Reasons
Top Ten Reasons Voters Say Nation is On the Wrong Track
September 23, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 9 8:13 am
Voters say US on Wrong Track: The September 2022 NBC News national political poll shows that almost 7-of-10 registered voters (68%) think things in the nation are off on the wrong track.
Note: I trust the NBC News poll more than most because they always have a Democratic firm (Hart Research Associates) and a Republican firm (Public Opinion Strategies) collaborate on a balanced selection of participants, an unbiased questionnaire, and a fair interpretation of the results.
Top 10 Wrong Track Reasons: The top 10 reasons, in their own words, why voters think the nation is on the wrong track are, #1. Economy/Inflation, #2. Divided Nation/Political Division, #3. Border Control/Immigration, #4. Joe Biden, #5. Gas Prices, #6. Crime/Violence/Killings, #7. Government Overreach/Corruption, #8. Cost of Living, #9. Food Prices, #10. Women’s Reproductive Rights.
Other than the two issues, Divided Nation/Political Division and Women’s Reproductive Rights, eight of the ten reasons why voters say the nation is on the wrong track are advantageous to Republicans.
Cost-of-living vs. Abortion: Question 16 in the September 2022 NBC News poll just might be the most telling. The question asked voters if “cost-of-living” or “abortion” was more important in deciding their vote for Congress. Cost-of-living was more important to 59%; abortion more important to 37%.
So why is that question so significant? Because most voters disapprove (61%) of the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, only 37% approve. Yet, cost-of-living still matters more (59%) than abortion (37%) in choosing who to vote for in a congressional race.
Bottom line, most Americans are fearful of growing inflation. The poll shows that 63% said their family income was “falling behind” the cost-of-living; only 30% said their income was “about even.”
Biden Job Approval a Drag on Democrats: Although President Biden’s overall job approval in the NBC News poll is 45%, it plummets on the issues that matter most. Only 30% approve of his handling of cost-of-living; only 40% approve of his handling of the economy in general.
Even worse, only 23% think Biden’s policies have improved economic conditions, with 47% saying Biden’s policies have hurt economic conditions. By comparison, 41% of voters said former Pres. Trump’s policies helped the economy, with only 26% saying Trump’s policies hurt the economy.
Trump Support Declining Among Republicans: Unfortunately for Trump, the same poll showing voters favoring his economic policies over Biden’s policies also shows that 56% of voters think the investigations into “alleged wrongdoing” by Trump should continue; 41% said they should not.
Most significantly, when only Republicans were asked if they were more a supporter of Donald Trump or the Republican Party, only 33% said “Supporter of Donald Trump,” with a strong GOP majority of 58% saying “Supporter of the Republican Party.”
Many Republicans are tiring of the wake of chaos that follows Trump wherever he goes. Privately, many are probably hoping that enough clear evidence of Trump’s wrongdoings will surface from the ongoing civil and criminal investigations to keep him from running in the 2024 presidential race.
There are plenty of rising stars in the Republican Party who support Trump’s views on public policy but are not as likely to leave a path of destruction in their dealings with others, including other Republicans.
MAGA Turnout: Meanwhile, the MAGA crowd is furious over the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago and are likely to turn out in droves this fall. Politically, Democrats are making a big mistake thinking they can get away with indicting Republicans while running interference for their criminals.
Forecast: When voters were asked if they favored one party over the other, the answer was 40% Democrats/Leaning Democrat and 40% Republican/Leaning Republican. The same 50-50 split appeared again when voters were asked if they would prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans or Democrats. Answer? 46% preferred Republican control, 46% Democratic control.
However, per the new Cook Political Report ratings of congressional races released Wednesday, Republicans have 212 seats of the 218 needed for the majority that favor the GOP candidate. Democrats have a less favorable 192 friendly districts. That means Republicans need to win only six of the 31 remaining tossup races in order to wrest control of the U.S. House from Speaker Pelosi and company.
If economic concerns of voters like cost-of-living continue as most important when deciding how to vote, and if Biden’s job approval on economic issues remains low, and if 7-of-10 Americans continue to say the country is on the wrong track, then Republicans will win most of the toss up races, giving them majorities in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, as well as solid majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.
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John N. Davis
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