John Davis Consulting

November 3, 2020 Election Results for US and NC Races

November 4, 2020         Vol. XIII, No. 12       3:13 pm

Trump wins North Carolina; 74.56% turnout!

Trump wins North Carolina. As of today, a total of 5,487,252 North Carolina ballots have been cast in the 2020 General Election, a record turnout of 74.56%. And, as of this writing, President Donald Trump is carrying North Carolina with 2,732,084 to former Vice President Joe Biden’s 2,655,383.  

As to whether Trump or Biden will be president during the next four years, we will have to wait a couple weeks due to likely recounts and litigation. NOTE: In the event of a tie in the Electoral College or with no one receiving the required 270 votes, each US house delegation will cast one vote on behalf of their state. In that event, North Carolina’s one vote would go to President Trump with an 8 to 5 vote of the newly elected congressional delegation.

Meanwhile, the President’s charge of fraud during his 2 o’clock am statement at the White House this morning is the latest example of why he alone is the master of his fate. Many voters, especially white women in the suburbs who abandoned Trump after voting for him in 2016, are tired of his chaotic and insulting style of leadership.

If Trump loses, he will have no one to blame but himself.

The same can be said for Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who did not defeat a single Republican Member of Congress in her failed attempt to expand the Democratic majority yesterday. Four years of Democratic House vendetta-driven fiascos like the Russian collusion investigation, the Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings, and the impeachment hearings were seen by many Americans as an abuse of power for partisan political gain.

Pelosi has no one to blame but herself if she is not reelected by her caucus as speaker.

Meanwhile, the good news for the economy and public policy is that we are still a divided government at the state and federal levels. That means no one can run over the other with extremist initiatives, left or right. It means that bipartisan consensus is the ONLY pathway to progress on all the important issues of the day from a new stimulus bill to infrastructure spending and healthcare reform.

Every faction is checked by one or another of the branches of government at all levels. To get some of what you want, you will have to give your partisan opponents some of what they want.

Most importantly, all political leaders are accountable to the voters, who made it abundantly clear yesterday that no matter how much money you have or how much power you wield, they will decide who stays and who goes. The US Senate is likely to stay in the hands of Republicans.

US Senate 51-49 GOP IF MI and GA GOP hold leads; Tillis wins

• Democrats had a bad night in US Senate races, despite a spending advantage of a couple of billion dollars, as the US Senate appears to be more likely on track to stay in the hands of Republicans. As expected, Republicans Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona and Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado lost their races, and Democrat Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama (Sen. Jeff Sessions seat) lost to former Auburn football coach Tommy Turberville.
• One of the biggest surprises of the night was the reelection of Sen. Susan Collins of Maine. It is estimated that over $100 million was spent against Collins by liberal groups who turned against her for being the decisive vote confirming Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Other Republicans who were considered vulnerable but who were elected include Cornyn in Texas, Ernst in Iowa, Graham in South Carolina, Marshall in Kansas, and Daines in Montana.
• Ballots are still being counted in Michigan (Democratic Gary Peters is behind GOP challenger John James at 1:32 pm) and in Georgia, where GOP Sen. David Perdue is ahead by over 150,000 votes at 1:32 pm. There will be a January runoff in Georgia between GOP incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock because neither candidate received the required 50% of the total votes.
• Note: If GOP challenger John James holds his lead in Michigan and Georgia Sen. David Perdue holds his lead, then the Senate becomes 51-49 Republican.
• $239 million spent on Tillis-Cunningham race. Republican North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis has won a second term over Democrat Cal Cunningham, embattled by his sexting scandal, in the most expensive US Senate race in 2020. As of this writing, Tillis has 2,640,381 votes to Cunningham’s 2,543,692 votes (at 1:27 pm today).
• Outside groups alone spent $85 million attacking Tillis. Thanks to the backing of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Tillis-backed outside groups spent $90 million attacking Cal Cunningham. If you add the amounts spent by the candidates (Tillis spent $18 million; Cunningham spent $46 million) and outside groups, a whopping $239 million was spent in North Carolina on the Tillis-Cunningham race.
• NOTE: Thom Tillis defeated Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014 in the nation’s most expensive US Senate race that year. Total 2014 spending in the Tillis-Hagan race was $120 million, half of 2020 total.

US House Democratic “dumpster fire;” Speaker Pelosi is history

• The US House will stay in the hands of Democrats, although with a smaller 227-208 majority (currently Democrats have a 233-201 majority; 1 Indep). Notably, not one single Republican incumbent was defeated by the Democrats in what was supposed to be a night of expanding their majority. “It’s a dumpster fire,” said one Democrat … anonymously.
• The net loss for House Democrats is attributable to Speaker Pelosi’s misjudgments from the hyperpartisan impeachment hearings to her failure to negotiate a second stimulus bill this fall. With Speaker Pelosi’s Real Clear Politics “Favorable” score at a dismal 36.6% (Unfavorable 54%), and the overall Congressional job approval at an even more dismal 18% (72% disapprove), her quest to continue as speaker is doomed.
• While Pelosi is likely out as Speaker, GOP House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will likely be reelected to head the GOP Caucus.
• As expected, North Carolina’s US House delegation will total 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats:

Republicans: US House 3 Rep. Greg Murphy, US House 5 Rep. Virginia Foxx, US House 7 Rep. David Rouzer, US House 8 Rep. Richard Hudson, US House 9 Rep. Dan Bishop, US House 10 Rep. Patrick McHenry, US House 11 Madison Cawthorn (new), and US House 13 Rep. Ted Budd.

Democrats: US House 1 Rep. G.K. Butterfield, US House 2 Deborah Ross (new), US House 4 Rep. David Price, US House 6 Kathy Manning (new) and US House 12 Rep. Elma Adams.

North Carolina Governor & Council of State

• Governor Roy Cooper defeated GOP challenger Lt. Gov. Dan Forest by 2,803,782 to 2,563,258.
• Council of State. Although Gov. Cooper will be joined on the Council of State by Democrats Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Auditor Beth Wood and Attorney General Josh Stein, he will have to contend with a Republican majority State Senate and House and six Republicans on the Council of State, three incumbents and three newcomers.
• Council of State incumbent Republicans winning another term include Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, Treasurer Dale Folwell, and Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey. Republican newcomers on the Council of State include GOP candidate for Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, Republican Josh Dobson who won the Labor Commissioner’s race, and Catherine Truitt, GOP winner for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Republican Majority North Carolina General Assembly

• Republicans won the majorities in both the State Senate (29-21) and House (68-52), thanks to their ongoing advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates despite years of legal wrangling by Democrats.

• Holding the majority in both chambers of the General Assembly means Republicans will control the committees that draw the legislative and congressional district maps used for the remainder of the decade. Thanks to population growth, North Carolina’s new federal map will include one new congressional district (from 13 to 14), which will certainly be drawn to favor the election of a Republican.

• NOTE: NC Governor cannot veto redistricting bills. In 1996, North Carolina became the last state in the nation to give its governor veto power. However, to get the bill passed, then-Gov. Jim Hunt begrudgingly agreed to one major exception: governors have no veto power over redistricting and local bills. Read a one-page history of the wheeling and dealing to give North Carolina’s governor veto power here, as written by Hunt consultant Gary Pearce.

Republicans win all 8 Appellate Judiciary Races

• As of this writing, all of North Carolina Supreme Court (3) and Court of Appeals (5) races have been won by the Republican candidate. Per my forecast, appellate judiciary races went to “the party that wins the presidential contest.” We live in a time of hyper-partisanship. There is little ticket-splitting when all that voters know about the candidate is their party affiliation.
• The race for Chief Justice is razor-thin, with Republican Justice Paul Newby at 2,670,773 to 2,667,031 Democratic Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (at 1:50 pm). There are well more than enough outstanding mailed ballots that could flip the results of this race to Beasley between now and the final day for counting North Carolina absentee ballots, November 12.
• However, the other seven appellate judiciary races won by GOP candidates are likely decided.

When the final ballots are tabulated and the races are certified, all of us will have won some races and will be disappointed by the outcome of others. But the most important thing we must now resolved to do is to accept the results and vow to start fresh with a renewed commitment to finding ways to forge bipartisan alliances to improve the greater good. That will only happen if we, the voters, demand it of our newly elected leaders.

As I said last week, it is time to end the partisan estrangement. It is poisoning our society. Everyone has a personal story about the formation of their political judgment, the judgment they use to make their political decisions in the voting booth. If we knew each other’s stories, we would understand why we voted the way we voted this fall. If we knew each other’s stories we would not be as likely to question each other’s motives or political choices.

It is time to have a cup of coffee with someone who voted differently from you. Not to talk about politics or public policy, but to share your stories of the formation of your political judgment.

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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis