John Davis Consulting

Final Forecasts for US and NC Races Based on Late Events That Expose Partisan Strengths and Weaknesses

October 29, 2020         Vol. XIII, No. 11       9:13 am

Political malfeasance in front of 63 million voters

October 22, 2020, 10:22 pm. If the Trump-Biden presidential debate last Thursday night had ended at 10:22 pm, the moment Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden glanced down at his watch to check the time, he may still be in the running in battleground states like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Regrettably, for Biden and his supporters, the debate did not end until after he was pressed by President Trump with the question, “Would you close down the oil industry?” to which Joe Biden answered, “I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” adding, “the oil industry pollutes, significantly.” 

Snap. Just like that, states where American families depend on oil industry jobs, like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, moved into the column of those President Trump is now likely to win.

Biden hemorrhaging votes on left and right over oil. Joe Biden was already in trouble with Bernie Sanders and the Green New Deal Democrats over his flipflopping on banning hydraulic fracturing (fracking). Now, he is in trouble with the over-10 million workers who are proud to have helped make the United States energy independent as the world’s #1 producer of oil and natural gas.

Timing is everything in politics. Announcing during an economic crisis to 63 million people watching the debate that you are going to close down an industry that, per PricewaterhouseCoopers, contributes $1.3 trillion to the US economy along with 10.3 million jobs, is political malfeasance.

That one event may cost Biden the presidency and hurt NC down-ballot Democrats on Tuesday.

Anger has rotted the foundation of the Democratic Party

“Cowards” and “Spineless enablers.” There she goes again. Hillary Clinton, in a New York Times podcast released Monday, called Republicans who support President Trump “cowards” and “spineless enablers.” In 2016, she called Donald Trump supporters “a basket of deplorables.”

My wife and I are fortunate to have a large family and an extended family of lifelong friends. Many of our friends and family members are supporting former Vice President Joe Biden in the presidential race and many are supporting President Trump. Those who are voting for Trump are not “cowards” or “spineless enablers” of the president. They are simply life-long Republicans.

However, because of angry Democrats like Hillary Clinton, most of our Trump friends would not dare put a sign in their yard or a bumper sticker on their car. They have clammed up. They are among the silent voters of 2020 who also would not tell a stranger conducting a poll that they are for Trump.

That is why I believe the polls are off this year, by two to three points, on Trump’s support.

There is no greater threat to Democrats than their four-year inability to accept the legitimacy of the Trump victory in 2016. It has meant four years of Democrats echoing Hillary Clinton in calling President Trump supporters “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic.”

Four years of vendetta-driven political fiascos. The Russian collusion investigation, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings, the impeachment hearings and trial of President Trump, the “Cancel Culture” fiasco (think political correctness on steroids or “you’re a racist if you disagree with me”), and most recently, the “Defund the Police” while I loot and burn your business fiasco.

Anger has rotted the Democratic party’s foundation and created an environment so hostile that no Trump supporter, especially in Democrat-friendly urban areas, would dare tell a pollster the truth.

Enthusiasm trumps money in voter turnout

Anemic Biden rallies vs. MAGA enthusiasm. Anemic turnout for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris (and former President Barack Obama) at their political rallies is another late event that has me concluding that the campaign is in a tailspin and will likely lose next Tuesday.

Meanwhile, President Trump is speaking to tens-of-thousands of enthusiastic supporters day after day, many of whom wait all day, some in the cold rain under their MAGA hats, all just to see him arrive on Air Force One. He speaks for an hour and a half and the excitement at the conclusion is just as palpable as when he arrived at the podium.

Enthusiasm trumps money in turnout. An enthusiasm advantage has always meant a turnout advantage. Add the Trump enthusiasm to a GOP four-year, door-to-door ground game aimed at registering new Trump voters and fine-tuning turnout operations and you can readily see the potential for surprise upsets next Tuesday favoring Republicans in close races.

Per a report earlier this month by David Wasserman, Cook Political Report, of the six states Trump won by less than 5 points in 2016, four — Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania — voter registration trends are more robust for the GOP. “If the race tightens,” writes Wasserman, “or there’s a substantial polling error, Trump’s superior base growth could make a difference in a few tight states — and call into question why the Biden campaign chose to forgo hitting the streets.”

Yes, Democrats have the most money by far, federal and state races. The latest campaign finance reports, per OpenSecrets.org, show the Biden campaign raising a record-breaking $938 million through October 14, with President Trump’s campaign reporting $596 million, or only 61% of Biden’s haul. Here is the context: In 2016, Donald Trump raised only 58% of Hillary Clinton’s total (Trump $564 million; Clinton $973 million) and beat her soundly in the Electoral College.

US Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett. And finally, there is no greater proof of Trump’s ability to shake up the federal swamp than his appointment of over-200 federal judges and three justices on the United States Supreme Court, now 6-to-3 conservative thanks to this week’s newcomer, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a working mom with seven kids. Who knows, the Barrett appointment may even inspire a few votes for Trump from those illusive suburban white women who otherwise wouldn’t dare vote for him.

Federal Races: Likely Winners

• Trump will win a second term and carry North Carolina. Other battleground states likely to vote for Trump include Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Texas, and Arizona, giving Trump 278 electoral college votes (270 needed to win).
• The US Senate will stay in the hands of Republicans, likely 51-49, despite their loss of Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona, and Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado. Former Auburn football coach Tommy Turberville will defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama (Sen. Jeff Sessions seat). Also, look for a surprise upset in Michigan where GOP challenger John James is giving Democratic US Sen. Gary Peters fits. A James win would give the GOP a 52-48 seat majority.
• Republican North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis will win a second term over Democrat Cal Cunningham, who will lose support even among Democrats over matters of sexual misconduct.
• The US House will stay in the hands of Democrats who will suffer a net loss after more Americans blame Congressional Democrats (41%) than Congressional Republicans (25%) or Pres. Trump (19%) for the failure of Congress to pass a coronavirus stimulus bill, according to poll results released Wednesday morning by Politico/Morning Consult.
• Speaker Pelosi’s misjudgments from the partisan impeachment hearings to the latest stimulus bill doom her quest to continue as speaker. Pelosi’s Real Clear Politics “Favorable” score is 36.6% (Unfavorable 54%), below Pres. Trump’s 42% “Favorable” score (Unfavorable 54.8%).
• The North Carolina US House delegation will total 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats:

Republicans: US House 3 Rep. Greg Murphy, US House 5 Rep. Virginia Foxx, US House 7 Rep. David Rouzer, US House 8 Rep. Richard Hudson, US House 9 Rep. Dan Bishop, US House 10 Rep. Patrick McHenry, US House 11 Madison Cawthorn (new), and US House 13 Rep. Ted Budd.

Democrats: US House 1 Rep. G.K. Butterfield, US House 2 Deborah Ross (new), US House 4 Rep. David Price, US House 6 Kathy Manning (new) and US House 12 Rep. Elma Adams.

• NOTE: In the event of a tie in the Electoral College or with no one receiving the required 270 votes, each US house delegation will cast one vote on behalf of their state. In that event, North Carolina’s vote would go to Pres. Trump with an 8 to 5 vote of the delegation listed above.

State Races: Likely Winners

• Governor: The biggest surprise upset next week will be the defeat of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper by Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest. Per Gallup, North Carolina is the 8^th most “Very Religious” state. Forest has been a champion of religious conservatives on issues opposed by Gov. Cooper from school choice to pro-life, and no group is more exhilarated over new US Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett than religious conservatives. They will turn out in record numbers statewide.

Forest has also been an advocate of managing the coronavirus while opening the state when Gov. Cooper has insisted that the state remain closed, which is to say to business, education, religious leaders and those who need to get back to work that they cannot be trusted to manage reopening.

• Council of State likely winners include incumbent Democrats Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Auditor Beth Wood and Attorney General Josh Stein, along with incumbent Republicans Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler and Treasurer Dale Folwell.
• Newcomers favored to win positions on the Council of State include Republican candidate for Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, along with Republican Josh Dobson, candidate for Labor Commissioner, and Catherine Truitt, GOP nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction.
• The race for Insurance Commissioner has been a Toss-Up all year between incumbent Republican Mike Causey and former Democratic Commissioner Wayne Goodwin, although a Trump/Tillis/Forest trifecta would give the odds to Causey.
• The North Carolina General Assembly is likely to stay in the hands of Republicans, thanks to their ongoing advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates. According to Michael Bitzer with Catawba College, one of the state’s leading experts on the partisan leanings of congressional and legislative districts, Republicans enjoy a 27-to-19 advantage in the number of state Senate seats that favor one party or the other. They need 26 wins to hold the majority. On the North Carolina House side, Bitzer’s analysis shows a 69-to-47 seat advantage in the number of seats that favor one party or the other, with 61 wins needed to hold the majority.
• North Carolina appellate judiciary races for seats on the Supreme Court and Court of Appeals will likely go to the party that wins the presidential contest. We live in a time of hyper-partisanship. There will be little ticket-splitting in races where the only thing voters know about the candidates is their party affiliation.

All three branches of government at the federal and state levels are up for grabs next Tuesday. By the end of the day, the races will be over. When the dust settles, each of us will win some races and be disappointed by the outcome of others. But the most important thing we must do next week is to accept the final results and vow to start fresh with a renewed commitment to finding ways to forge bipartisan alliances to improve the greater good.

It is time to end the partisan estrangement. It is poisoning our society. Everyone has a personal story about the formation of their political judgment, the judgment they use to make their political decisions in the voting booth. If we knew each other’s stories, we would understand why we vote the way we vote. We would not likely question other voters’ motives or feel contempt for their political preferences.

It’s time to have a cup of coffee with someone who voted differently from you. Not to talk about politics or public policy, but to share your stories of the formation of your political judgment.

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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis