NC GOP Gains Supreme Court Majority and NC Senate Supermajority; Likely to Flip US House November 9, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 11 10:13 am Republicans Win 5-2 Majority on NC Supreme Court NC Supreme Court: North Carolina Republicans won the two state Supreme Court races and the four North Carolina Court of Appeals races, flipping
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NC GOP Gains Supreme Court Majority and NC Senate Supermajority; Likely to Flip US House
November 9, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 11 10:13 am
Republicans Win 5-2 Majority on NC Supreme Court
NC Supreme Court: North Carolina Republicans won the two state Supreme Court races and the four North Carolina Court of Appeals races, flipping the NC Supreme Court from a 4 – 3 Democratic majority to a 5 – 2 Republican majority. The two new justices are Richard Dietz, who defeated Lucy Inman, and Trey Allen, who defeated Sam Ervin, IV.
Implications: Republicans will now be able to redraw the congressional and legislative maps as they please (governor can’t veto maps), expanding their advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates.
For background on the winners of the two Supreme Court and four Court of Appeals races, see North Carolina Board of Elections Judicial Voter Guide 2022.
GOP Wins Supermajority in NC Senate; One Seat Short in NC House
NC SENATE & HOUSE: Republicans won a 30-seat supermajority in the 50-member NC Senate but fell one seat short in the 120-member NC House, giving Gov. Cooper the power of the veto for his final two years as governor and forcing the GOP to bargain.
DEMOCRATS WIN 35-of-37 WAKE AND MECKLENBURG SEATS: North Carolina’s two largest urban counties continue to be strongholds for Democrats running for the General Assembly, favoring Democrats in 35-of-37 of the combined state Senate and House races from Wake and Mecklenburg counties.
Democrats won 6-of-6 of the NC Senate races in Wake County, and 5-of-5 NC Senate races in Mecklenburg County. (Note: Although NC Senate 37 was won by Republican Vickie Sawyer, only 4-of-33 precincts are in Mecklenburg County; Iredell County 29 precincts.)
Wake County has 13 NC House districts. Democrats won 12-of-13, with Rep. Erin Pare the only GOP winner. Mecklenburg County has 13 NC House districts. Democrats won 12-of-13, with Rep. John Bradford, III the only GOP winner.
Urban Growth Implications: Although at first glance it appears exponential urban growth is the North Carolina GOP’s greatest political threat, surrounding Republican-friendly counties are growing exponentially too, keeping the state a level playing field.
Rumor: It is rumored that several NC House Democrats are considering switching to the GOP before the 2023 session begins. If one switched, Republicans would have a 72-seat supermajority in the NC House, and the ink in Gov. Cooper’s veto pen would dry up.
Meanwhile, Republicans will enjoy a solid 71-49 advantage in the NC House. The GOP caucus will elect the Speaker, and all committee chairs will be Republican.
GOP’s Budd Wins US Senate Race; Democrat Nickel Wins US House 13
US SENATE MAJORITY YET UNDETERMINED: Republican Ted Budd defeated Democrat Cheri Beasley 50.71% to 47.08% in the race for the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring Sen. Richard Burr.
As of this hour, the U.S. Senate majority is yet undetermined, with the majority likely decided on December 6 in a Georgia runoff election between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.
As of 10:13 am this morning, Sen. Warnock had 49.4% to Walker’s 48.5%. Georgia election laws require a winning margin of at least 50%.
Democrats flipped Pennsylvania and are likely to hold once-vulnerable Arizona. The GOP flipped Nevada and are likely to hold once-vulnerable Wisconsin.
NC REPUBLICANS WON FAVORABLE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS: In North Carolina’s congressional races, 7-of-14 districts so clearly favor the election of Republicans that there was never any doubt the Republican nominee would win. Republican winners: Representatives Virginia Foxx, Patrick McHenry, Richard Hudson, Dan Bishop, David Rouser and Greg Murphy, along with newcomer Republican Chuck Edwards, who defeated former Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the GOP primary.
NC DEMOCRATS WON FAVORABLE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS: Six of NC’s 14 congressional districts so clearly favor the election of Democrats that there was never any doubt the Democratic nominee would win. Democratic winners: Representatives Kathy Manning, Alma Adams and Deborah Ross, along with newcomers to the U.S. House Valerie Foushee (Rep. David Price’s district), Jeff Jackson (new district 14), and Don Davis (Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s district).
DEMOCRATS WIN NC’s ONLY TOSS UP DISTRICT: U.S. House District 13, a newly reconfigured swing district that includes southern Wake County, all of Johnston County, and portions of Harnett and Wayne Counties, was won by Democrat Wiley Nickel, 51.32% to 48.68% for Republican Bo Hines. Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hines hurt him badly in urban and suburban Wake County precincts. Plus, he simply could not overcome the fact that he was an inexperienced carpetbagger.
Messages Voters Sent With Their Votes on November 8, 2022
On November 8, 2022, there was no red wave sweeping Democrats out of power from sea to shining sea. Just as important, there was no blue wave. Nothing about the election results on Tuesday says that either party has a partisan or ideological mandate.
The economy and crime mattered a lot. So did abortion. In the suburbs, MAGA mattered; Trump hurt more than he helped. But there was no party mandate.
Where is the partisan or ideological mandate in a 50-50 US Senate, or even a Senate where one of the parties has a 51 or 52 seat majority? Where is the partisan or ideological mandate in a U.S. House where one of the parties has a single digit majority out of 435 members?
The NBC News October poll included a question asking American voters what message they would be sending with their votes to those candidates who won on November 8, 2022. Six of the top eight answers were about the importance of political leaders to focus on solving problems on the mind of most voters rather than partisan or ideological agendas.
The six messages sent to yesterday’s winners by voters are:
- Be More Effective/Productive/Do More
- More Bipartisanship/Work for the People
- Save This Country/Turn This Country Around
- Honesty/Integrity/Trust Matters
- Focus on the Problems Within the United States
- Listen to Your Constituents
These are cautionary political messages for both parties. No one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022. No one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022.
The mandate is to focus on solving the most important problems on the mind of voters.
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John N. Davis
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