John Davis Consulting

Will Democrats Help President Trump and the GOP Out of the Political Hole They Have Dug for Themselves?

January 31, 2019         Vol. XII, No. 1         1:13 pm

Republicans Cannot Survive 2020 Without White Women & Independents

President Trump and the GOP have dug themselves into a hole with suburban white women and independent voters that will be difficult to climb out of without a little luck and some political gifts from the Democrats in 2020. Gifts like a flawed presidential nominee. Luck like the 2016 “October Surprise” letter from FBI Director James Comey, reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails.

Donald Trump never would have won the Oval Office without a gift like Hillary Clinton, the first female nominee of a major party, who lost 53% of all white women to Trump, including 45% of white women with college degrees, per CNN exit polls. Who lost independent voters 46% to 42%.

But in 2018, per CNN exit polls, Democrats won independent voters back, 54% to 42%.

• Independent men flipped from Trump +12 points in 2016 to Democrats +7 points in 2018
• Independent women’s support for Democrats from +5 points in 2016 to +17 points in 2018

Women, overall in 2018, favored Democrats by 59% to 40%. White women, who had supported Trump with 53% over Clinton in 2016, were tied at 49% each for Democrats and Republicans.

College-educated white women, who had given Donald Trump 45% of their votes in 2016, gave Republicans only 39% of their votes in 2018. Independent women: 56% Democratic; 39% GOP.

Republicans simply cannot survive in 2020 without white women and independent voters.

A Republican Party of Aging, White Men Has No Political Future 

There are 36 new women in the United State House of Representatives, 35 Democrats and 1 Republican. The total white men in the Democratic Caucus went from 41% to 38%. The total white men in the Republican Caucus went from 86% to 90%. That’s an appalling trendline. A losing trendline.

Here are a couple of the most appalling numbers from the makeup of the new US Congress:

• Republicans: 179 white men, 12 white women, 8 nonwhite men and 1 nonwhite woman
• Democrats: 91 white men, 48 white women, 55 nonwhite men and 41 nonwhite women

So, in a nation where 52% of the electorate are women, where, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center, one-third are nonwhite; a nation where one-in-ten eligible voters in 2020 will have been born outside the United States, where, per the US Census Bureau, Millennials will outnumber Baby Boomers in total population for the first time ever (73 million Millennials to 72 million Baby Boomers), Republican leaders in Washington, DC are becoming older, whiter and more male.

A Republican Party of aging, white men has no political future. The GOP must recruit women and minorities, especially in the suburbs, in order to stay competitive with Democrats, embolden by their takeover of the US House in 2018; driven to retake the White House and US Senate in 2020.

The loss of white women voters, particularly in the suburbs, and independent voters, cost Republicans the US House in 2018, and will cost them the White House in 2020, if fences aren’t mended. And the GOP leader who needs work hardest to mend those fences is President Trump.

Trump’s Average Job Approval After 638 Polls Has Shifted -12 Points 

If you want a politically sobering look at President Trump’s job approval after two years in office, forget the latest polls and look at the average of the 638 national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics since his inauguration that asked the question, “Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Trump is doing?”

President Trump began his term with an average of 45% of Americans approving of the job he was doing, and 45% disapproving. Today, after 638 national polls, the president’s overall averages are 42% approval and 54% disapproval, a negative shift of -12 points.

The fact that President Trump’s approval has eroded only three points (from 45% to 42%) is politically valuable, showing little erosion among his base. However, the increase in disapproval from 45% to 54% is most significant. The rising disapproval number is where the slippage among suburban women and independent voters is most evident.

President Trump needs a job approval closer to 50% to win a second term, and today’s overall average of 42% approval with a 54% disapproval is a political train wreck waiting to happen.

Of course, President Trump will be pushing his “Promises Kept” campaign. He has time to successfully negotiate trade deals with big markets like China and make some progress on issues like the denuclearization of North Korea and domestic items like immigration and infrastructure.

However, Trump is going to need some luck (Mueller Report? FISA Scandal?) and some political gifts from the Democrats in 2020, like another flawed presidential nominee, in order to reach a 50/50 chance of winning a second term.

Meanwhile, Democrats are drifting dangerously close to a radical agenda so far left that they could very well lose everything they gained in 2018. Which brings me to the title of this report: Will Democrats help President Trump and the GOP out of the political hole they have dug for themselves?

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John N. Davis

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