Two Waves and a Seawall: Democratic Blue Wave Not Likely to Breach the Trump/GOP Seawall Until 2020 August 31, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 15 10:13 am Labor Day Forecast: GOP Holds Congress and NC General Assembly I see two political waves on the horizon. One, farther out, is a generational wave that is about to
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Two Waves and a Seawall: Democratic Blue Wave Not Likely to Breach the Trump/GOP Seawall Until 2020
August 31, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 15 10:13 am
Labor Day Forecast: GOP Holds Congress and NC General Assembly
I see two political waves on the horizon. One, farther out, is a generational wave that is about to sweep the nation of aging leaders in both parties. That’s the wave likely to swamp Republicans in 2020. As for the 2018 Democratic blue wave, it’s not likely to breach the Trump/GOP seawall because of historic economic expansion, President Trump’s job approval among Republicans, gerrymandered GOP-friendly districts, a bitter, out-of-touch Democratic establishment, and a political backlash against anti-Trump collusion among senior Obama Administration FBI officials.
Why is the generational wave likely to swamp Republicans in 2020? Because every study shows that emerging generations are far more progressive than their parents and grandparents.
Per Pew Research, six-in-ten Millennial voters (born since about 1980) are more likely to vote Democratic, which includes independents who lean Democratic. Among young women, 70% are more likely to vote Democratic.
As to Millennials social and economic policy leanings, per Gallup interviews this summer:
- 51% of 18-29-year-olds view socialism positively (45% view capitalism positively)
- Only 28% of 65+ year-olds view socialism positively (60% view capitalism positively)
About 9-in-10 of America’s young adults live in urban areas, according to Pew, where all voters are 2-to-1 (62%/31%) more likely to vote for Democrats. That fact has growing political significance in North Carolina, now projected to be among the 8 states with ½ of the country’s population by 2040.
Hence, 2020 offers a big opportunity for Democrats to recover politically in Washington, DC and in Raleigh. But first, Democrats have to get rid of their bitter, 20th Century-centric establishment leaders who still see racism, sexism and xenophobia as the primary motives of President Trump’s “deplorable” supporters; Democrats who blame everyone but themselves for losing the White House.
Blue Wave Weakened by Bitterness and Corruption
Bitterness over the loss of the 2016 presidential race to Donald Trump is weakening the Democratic blue wave. Bitterness keeps you focused on the negative. The vendetta.
Hillary Clinton told an audience in Mumbai, India in March 2018 that the white women who voted for Donald Trump did so because of “… an ongoing pressure to vote the way your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should.”
After the mid-July 2018 meeting in Helsinki between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, John Brennan, President Obama’s CIA Director from 2013-2017, tweeted that Trump’s performance “rises to & exceeds the threshold of ‘high crimes & misdemeanors.’ It was nothing short of treasonous.”
After President Trump stated that the April 2018 firing of Andrew McCabe, former Deputy Director of the FBI, was “A great day for Democracy,” Brennan tweeted, “When the full extent of your venality, moral turpitude, and political corruption becomes known, you will take your rightful place as a disgraced demagogue in the dustbin of history.”
Bitterness towards President Trump by Democrats like Hillary Clinton and John Brennan is weakening the Democratic blue wave. Also weakening the Democratic blue wave is the growing scandal among Obama Administration DOJ and FBI senior officials caught meddling in the presidential race.
Corrupt DOJ and FBI senior officials discredit the legitimate investigatory work being done by the upright FBI agents and Special Prosecutors like Robert Mueller. Too many FBI senior leaders already fired like FBI Director James Comey, Assistant FBI Director Andrew McCabe, and FBI Chief of Counterespionage Peter Strzok.
Corruption at the DOJ and the FBI renders the results of investigations on the Trump campaign politically useless to Democrats. It’s like offsetting penalties in a football game. One side throws a punch. The other side throws a punch. Offsetting penalties.
Bitterness and corruption are weakening the Democratic blue wave at the same time the Trump/GOP seawall is getting higher and higher.
Trump’s Job Approval Net +8 Over 2017; Base Solid at 85%
Overall, President Trump’s job approval average is 44%; significantly higher than a year ago.
In August 2017, according to the Real Clear Politics website, there were 25 polls conducted nationwide that asked voters whether they approved or disapproved of the job that President Trump was doing. The average of those 25 polls last August was 38.96% “Approve;” 56.16% “Disapprove.”
This August, there have been 22 polls conducted nationally on President Trump’s job approval, showing an average of 43.8% “Approve,” 52.6% “Disapprove.” That’s a net gain of 8 points over 2017.
Now, a positive 8-point swing to 44% job approval might not sound like a reliable predictor of whether Trump will have a positive impact on Republican candidates in 2018. However, consider this: President Obama’s job approval at the same time in 2010 was 45%, according to Gallup, but falling from 53% on Labor Day 2009 to 45% on Labor Day 2010. A negative trendline is ominous.
Obama’s trendline was negative on the eve of his first midterm exam. Trump’s trendline is positive.
Democrats stayed home in big numbers in 2010 because, as the job approval trendline shows, they lost confidence in their own leaders. President Obama made the politically disastrous mistake of putting healthcare over what was most important to voters during the aftermath of the worst recession since the Great Depression; jobs and the economy.
Not only is President Trump’s trendline positive among all voters, but his job approval among Republicans is 85%. If midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, this president is on track to have a favorable score on his midterm exam.
That’s because Trump is all about getting things done.
Seawall Built on Foundation of Disruption & Promises Kept
The foundation of the Trump/GOP defensive seawall is President Trump’s disruptiveness. It’s why his voters elected him. To drain the swamp. The federal establishment, including the Republican establishment. The powerful Obama administration and Hillary Clinton campaign insiders. All who have rigged the federal government to benefit the privileged few; those who have enriched themselves.
President Trump was also elected to disrupt the establishment news media who years ago discredited themselves when they picked a side in the partisan competition for power in the nation’s capital. Discrediting themselves long before Donald Trump went on his “Fake News” tear.
Thanks to a year-and-a-half of disruptiveness and keeping campaign promises by getting things done that his voters wanted, the Trump base is solidly in his corner and likely to turn out this fall to ensure that the President will have two more years of support from a GOP-majority Congress.
From his first day in office, President Trump has been loyal to his base. Signing executive orders overturning President Obama’s executive orders. Eliminating 22 regulations for every one new one. Appointing conservatives to the federal judiciary.
The Keystone pipeline and Dakota Access pipeline. Drilling and mining on public land. Peace through strength military strategy. Defeating ISIS in 90% of its territory.
Leading the successful passage of a bipartisan budget act that included $165 billion for the military. Sanctions against Russia for cyber-attacks and election meddling. Missile strikes against Syria for using chemical weapons against their own people.
Renegotiating defense agreements with the United Nations and trade agreements around the world. Household income at an all-time high.
An historic first, 6.7 million jobs available and 6.3 million unemployed workers. GDP at over 4%. Longest ever bull market run by the S&P 500. Millions of new jobs and record unemployment among Hispanics and African-Americans.
Tax cuts, both personal and corporate. Repatriation of hundreds of billions of dollars of corporate profits parked overseas in foreign banks because of high interest rates in the United States.
So, while bitter Democrats seek revenge, the Trump/GOP seawall is getting higher and higher.
Thanks to historic economic expansion, President Trump’s job approval among Republicans, gerrymandered GOP-friendly districts, a bitter, out-of-touch Democratic establishment, and a political backlash against anti-Trump collusion among senior Obama Administration FBI officials, Republicans are likely to hold their majorities in both the US Congress and the North Carolina General Assembly.
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