John Davis is a non-partisan political analyst. His 49-year career includes work at all levels of politics in over half the states in the nation. He is the author of the John Davis Political Report, now in its 16th year of publication, and is a frequent speaker for corporations and professional organizations.
Top Ten VP Kamala Harris Will Win, If, and Top Ten Former President Donald Trump Will Win, If October 31, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 10 1:13 pm Today’s North Carolina Early Voting Summary Per today’s Early Voting Analysis Day 14 by Mike Rusher, President, The Results Company: As of the close of early voting sites last night, over 3.6 million North Carolinians have voted, with Democrats voting in fewer numbers, surprisingly, than their 2022 and 2020 early voting turnout totals. “Democrats are now behind their 2020 pace by 320k votes,” notes Rusher. Equally surprising, Republicans and Unaffiliated voters are banking [More…]
Inflation and Immigration May Doom Kamala Harris in 2024 Like Covid-19 Doomed Donald Trump in 2020 October 18, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 9 9:13 am Most Americans Feel Worse Off Than Four Years Ago This morning, October 18, 2024, Gallup released a new study showing that more than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago; 39% said they are better off. Gallup noted that today’s low (39%) “better off” numbers are very close to the 1992 survey results, when only 38% of Americans said they were better off [More…]
Labor Day Forecast 2024: Look for Divided Executives and Legislators Checked by GOP Courts September 2, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 8 1:13 am Great News! Extremists checked by divided government! The best way to give you an idea of what to expect on November 5, 2024, is to remind you about what happened 28 years ago on November 5, 1996. Here’s a summary: On November 5, 1996, voters in North Carolina chose GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole for the White House and conservative firebrand Jesse Helms for the US Senate. But then, the same voters on the same day elected [More…]
Democrats Demoralized as Republicans Unite and Revel in Trump’s Heroic Defiance of Assassin’s Bullet July 17, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 7 1:13 pm A bullet changes everything Trump bloodied but unbowed; an iconic image for the ages. Surrounded by Secret Service agents, blood dripping down his face, his clenched fist raised in defiance of an assassin’s bullet. Victorious. As we saw last night at the GOP convention in Milwaukee, Republicans, including all former primary opponents like Ramaswamy, DeSantis, Scott, Burgum, and Haley, are now unified behind Trump. Enthusiastic about their prospects of winning the presidential race this November. Emotionally committed [More…]
Will Biden Give Vice President Kamala Harris the Advantage of Running as President Kamala Harris July 8, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 6 12:13 pm With Harris the Democratic nominee, Nikki Haley may be Trump’s best pick It’s over. President Joe Biden will likely soon announce that he will no longer seek a second term in the Oval Office. The CNN debate on June 27 confirmed what everyone already knew. Biden does not have the physical strength and mental acuity to be a competitive presidential candidate for the next four months, much less the strength and acuity to serve as president [More…]
If Biden Fails To Win CNN’s Presidential Debate Tonight, He Will Not Likely Be The Nominee June 27, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 5 11:13 am Biden must convince Democrats that he can defeat Trump If President Biden fails to win CNN’s presidential debate tonight in Atlanta, he will not likely be the nominee chosen at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August to take on former president Donald Trump. If Trump fails to win tonight, he will still be the Republican nominee chosen in Milwaukee in July. The reason tonight’s debate is a must win for Biden can be [More…]
Why Biden-Harris Cannot Defeat the “Terrifyingly Competent Trump 2024 Campaign” May 29, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 4 1:13 pm Trump “martyred by Biden White House” In April, Vanity Fair, a magazine of liberal culture, fashion and political opinion, published an article titled, Inside the Terrifyingly Competent Trump 2024 Campaign. As to Trump’s potential, the article posed the question, “How worried should you be?” Answer: “Very worried.” The Vanity Fair article describes the Trump campaign as “ a professionalized operation focused on one thing: winning.” The winning message? Per the article, prior to Trump’s 91 indictments, he was a “one-line artist [More…]
NH Gov. Chris Sununu on Why Fellow Anti-Trump Republicans Will Support Him No Matter What April 16, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 3 2:13 pm “I’m supporting not just the president, but the Republican administration.” Many Democrats are having a difficult time understanding why so many Republicans are continuing to support Donald Trump for president despite his seemingly endless list of alleged transgressions. However, having watched politics my entire life, it’s as simple as the rhetorical question, Do you really think that Republicans should have allowed Hillary Clinton to win the White House and pick those three US Supreme Court justices [More…]
Despite Trump’s Caustic Criticism the Nation’s Legal System May Be His Best Hope for a Second Term February 29, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 2 9:13 pm Running Against “The System” is Right Out of Trump’s 2016 Playbook Next Tuesday, March 5, 2024, former president Donald Trump will win North Carolina’s GOP presidential primary, as well as the presidential nomination contests in all other Super Tuesday states, including Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. He has already won Iowa with 51%, New Hampshire with 54%, South Carolina with 60%, and Michigan with 68% [More…]
Like Lemmings to the Sea Republicans Follow Democrats Off the Cliff with Mayorkas Impeachment January 31, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 1 2:13 pm Partisan Impeachments are a Fool’s Errand Last night, just after midnight, 18 Republicans and 0 Democrats on the US House Homeland Security Committee voted to advance two articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, accusing him of “breach of trust” and “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law.” And just like that, a fool’s errand of another partisan impeachment began. If there is any doubt of the foolishness of a partisan impeachment, [More…]
Rare Dual Conservative Dominance on US & NC Supreme Courts Likely for Years to Come May 31, 2023 Vol. XVI, No. 3 10:13 am Dozens of federal and state precedents will be overruled Conservative Through 2028: This is a unique era in which both our federal and state Supreme Courts are solidly conservative at the same time, and are likely to stay that way for years to come. The NC Supreme Court is 5-2 conservative. Conservatives will have an advantage on the state Supreme Court for a minimum of the next five years. Not including Republican Chief Justice Paul [More…]
Fifty-Year Search for First Black Cast to Compete in the Mississippi High School Drama Festival February 16, 2023 Marion Central Dramatics Club 1969 In honor of Black History Month, I would like to depart from my political commentary and tell you a personal story about my experiences while teaching sixth grade English from 1968 to 1970 at an all-Black school prior to integration in Marion County, Mississippi. The rural county school, named Marion Central, had a high school wing and an elementary school wing separated by an enclosed walkway. One day, the Marion Central High School Dramatics Club teacher came [More…]
In Today’s Divided State and Nation, You Have to Start Throwing Punches Earlier and Harder to Win January 24, 2023 Vol. XVI, No. 1 10:13 am “Retire or Get Fired” TV Ads Already Running for 2024 Races “Retire or Get Fired:” It never ends. Politics. A news story in The Hill last week reported that the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee is already running attack ads against Democratic US Senators from Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, three Republican-friendly states carried by former GOP President Donald Trump in 2020. The ad campaign, titled, “Retire or Get Fired,” is targeting Montana Democrat Sen. [More…]
NC GOP Gains Supreme Court Majority and NC Senate Supermajority; Likely to Flip US House November 9, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 11 10:13 am Republicans Win 5-2 Majority on NC Supreme Court NC Supreme Court: North Carolina Republicans won the two state Supreme Court races and the four North Carolina Court of Appeals races, flipping the NC Supreme Court from a 4 – 3 Democratic majority to a 5 – 2 Republican majority. The two new justices are Richard Dietz, who defeated Lucy Inman, and Trey Allen, who defeated Sam Ervin, IV. Implications: Republicans will now be able to redraw [More…]
Part 2: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime October 28, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 10, Part 2 10:13 am NOTE: This is Part 2 of a report titled, GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime. Part 1 focused on how Democrats lost the moral authority to lead the nation, with implications for the US Senate races. Part 2 covers races for the NC Appellate Judiciary, US House, and the NC General Assembly. NC Supreme Court Seats Most Politically Consequential Races of [More…]
Part 1: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime October 27, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 10 8:13 am NOTE: This is Part 1 of two reports under the title, GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime. Part 1 focuses on how Democrats lost the moral authority to lead the nation, with implications for the US Senate majority and North Carolina’s US Senate race. Part 2 will cover the US House, the North Carolina General Assembly, and the North Carolina Appellate Judiciary races. [More…]
Forecasting Likely 2022 State and Federal Election Results by the Top 10 Wrong Track Reasons Top Ten Reasons Voters Say Nation is On the Wrong Track September 23, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 9 8:13 am Voters say US on Wrong Track: The September 2022 NBC News national political poll shows that almost 7-of-10 registered voters (68%) think things in the nation are off on the wrong track. Note: I trust the NBC News poll more than most because they always have a Democratic firm (Hart Research Associates) and a Republican firm (Public Opinion Strategies) collaborate on a balanced selection of [More…]
Trump May Be a Rogue, But He’s Their Rogue, With the Same Redemptive Support You Give Your Rogues August 15, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 8 9:13 am Understanding the MAGA Crowd’s Loyalty to Trump FBI Raid Boosts Trump’s GOP Support for President 2024: Despite the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago, the House January 6 Committee, charges of tax evasion, and numerous other ongoing civil and criminal investigations, 58% of Republicans now say they would back Trump for president in 2024, a new high per an August 10 Morning Consult poll. Today’s Real Clear Politics average shows Trump’s support among Republicans at [More…]
Only the Strong Survive North Carolina’s Darwinian Politics in the Absence of a Partisan Advantage July 20, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 7 1:13 pm Three Ticks to the Right of Center is Not Enough North Carolina is Middle America: Per the Cook Political Report’s just-released 2022 PVI (Partisan Voter Index) study, there are 25 states more Republican-friendly than North Carolina and 25 more Democratic-friendly (includes DC). North Carolina has a slight but not failsafe advantage for Republicans (PVI score is R+3, meaning the statewide Republican average for the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections is 3 points higher than the national [More…]
Swing State Republicans Create Model for Winning in November 2022 by Managing “The Trump Factor” June 3, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 6 3:13 pm Republicans Quietly Shift Priority to Winning Over Loyalty to Trump GA Republicans Have Winning on Their Minds: After losing the presidential race in 2020 and both US Senate races in 2021, Georgia Republicans are now putting winning over all other considerations, including former President Trump’s vindictive primary endorsements. A May Fox News poll asked Georgia Republicans what was more important in their choice for governor, “winning,” “Trump,” or “abortion.” Those who said “Can win in November” [More…]
Can Pat McCrory Disarm Gun Dealer Ted Budd Before the US Senate Republican Primary Shootout May 17? April 13, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 5 8:13 am Why Only One-in-Five Republicans Support McCrory in GOP Primary NC GOP “Trump Republicans:” 60% of NC’s likely GOP primary voters consider themselves more a “Trump Republican” than a traditional conservative, per an April Civitas poll (Apr 1-3). Those saying, “More traditional Republican,” totaled 34.7%. US Senate Race: This explains why 65-year-old former Gov. Pat McCrory has only 21% support in the GOP primary race, trailing Trump-endorsed candidate, 51-year-old US Rep. Ted Budd, a Davie [More…]
Democrats’ Loss of National Moral Authority Threatens Their Candidates in North Carolina this Fall March 31, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 4 1:13 pm Biden is the Democratic Party’s Biggest Problem I’m not quite sure how President Biden and congressional Democrats get out of the political hole they’ve dug themselves into in time to stop a Republican takeover of the US House and Senate this fall. On their watch, per the March NBC News poll, a staggering 71% of Americans said the country is “off on the wrong track.” Democrats have lost the moral authority to lead the nation. The #1 [More…]
Today is a Great Day to be an American, a Nation of Laws; a North Carolinian, a State of Laws February 24, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 3 4:13 pm It all started 219 years ago on February 24, 1803 On this day, February 24, 1803, the authority of the United States Supreme Court to declare a legislative act unconstitutional was recognized for the first time in the case Marbury v. Madison. The doctrine of judicial review, established in that case, is the same doctrine that gave our state’s highest court, the North Carolina Supreme Court, the authority to declare that [More…]
North Carolina Democrats Will Suffer Politically if Biden and DC Democrats Continue to Claim Liberal Mandate January 28, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 2 7:13 am Biden no longer seen as competent and effective Many North Carolina Democrats will lose their campaigns in 2022 if President Biden and other national party leaders continue to disappoint their base and alienate independent voters by governing as if they were given a liberal mandate by voters in 2020. How bad is it for Democrats? Well, when Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet the Press, says that President Biden is “no longer seen as competent and [More…]
Justice As Rendered in 2022 by US Supreme Court and NC Supreme Court Was Determined at the Ballot Box < January 4, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 1 2:13 pm US Supreme Court likely to make Democrats’ lives miserable The US Supreme Court is likely to make Democrats’ lives miserable this year. And next year. And many years after that. All because Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, giving him the authority to nominate three Supreme Court Justices (Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, Barrett), at a time Republicans were the majority party in the US Senate (2015-2021), guaranteeing the confirmation of Trump’s picks [More…]
North Carolina’s Democratic Islands are Surrounded by a Sea of Republican Precincts in Exurban Counties October 1, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 11 12:13 pm Democratic islands in a sea of Republican precincts So, how is it that Republicans won 13 of the 17 statewide races in North Carolina in 2020? The 2020 US Census results show the biggest population gains were in Democratic-friendly urban counties and most of the population losses were in Republican-friendly rural counties. The reason is that exurbia, the regions just beyond the big city suburbs, are Republican-friendly areas that grew exponentially too! As to the population [More…]
Why Americans Can Expect and Republicans Should Prepare for President Kamala Harris Before 2024 July 9, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 10 7:13 am Democrats cannot risk another Hillary Clinton disaster Vice President Kamala Harris has made many rookie mistakes this year, most recently her mismanagement of President Biden’s already-mismanaged immigration crisis at the border with Mexico, all of which is immaterial to the Twenty-fifth Amendment of the US Constitution, which states that the vice president shall become president if the incumbent resigns, which is becoming increasingly likely. There are numerous reasons that may prompt President Biden to resign during [More…]
Political Maps and Moral Authority are the Most Influential Unknowns in the 2022 Showdown for Power June 14, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 9 7:13 am What if remapping turned Farmington, WV into Farmington, MD? Imagine how politically disruptive it would be if every 10 years, following the US Census, we redrew all of the state borders. One decade your hometown, say Farmington, West Virginia, is within the boundaries of a conservative Republican-friendly red state, and the next decade Farmington is within the boundaries of a neighboring liberal Democratic-friendly blue state like Maryland. Sen. Joe Manchin, the conservative West Virginia Democrat [More…]
Ousting Liz Cheney Carries Little Political Risk but Pinning Your Hopes on Trump is the Biggest Risk of All May 14, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 8 7:13 am Trump’s irresponsible statement this week has political consequences Is anyone surprised that US Senate Republicans have not elected Sen. Mitt Romney as a leader of their caucus, the only Republican Senator to vote “yes” to convict President Donald Trump during his first impeachment trial last year? Surely not. So why is anyone surprised that US House Republicans voted against Rep. Liz Cheney as a leader of their caucus this week, one of [More…]
Redemption Begins When We Stop Calling People “Racist” and Start Dealing With “Systemic Racism” April 30, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 7 2:13 pm “Systemic racism,” yes. “Racist,” no. On Wednesday, Sen. Tim Scott, an African American Republican from South Carolina, said during his response to President Joe Biden’s State of the Union Address, “Hear me clearly: America is not a racist country.” On Thursday, President Biden, in an interview with TODAY’s Craig Melvin, was asked to comment on Scott’s statement. “I don’t think America’s racist,” Biden said, “but I think the overhang from all of the Jim Crow (laws), and [More…]
Today’s US Census Release Shows Most Maps in States Gaining Seats in Congress to be Redrawn by GOP April 26, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 6 3:13 pm North Carolina will have 14 congressional seats It’s official! The US Census Bureau announced at 3 o’clock this afternoon that North Carolina is one of six states gaining a combined total of seven seats in the United States Congress, with five of the seven seats in states where Republicans control remapping. Thanks to a decade of population growth, states gaining seats in Congress include Texas (+2 seats), Florida (+1 seat), North Carolina (+1 [More…]
How a Secret Group Anticipated and Blocked President Trump’s Attempt to Reverse a Losing Campaign March 4, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 5 6:13 am What Democrats did was worse than corrupt, it was legal Last Sunday, at one hour and ten minutes (01:10:24) into his CPAC speech, former President Donald Trump described as “corrupt” what a Time Magazine article disclosed as how the Democrats won the White House. He said, “It’s a disaster for our country that we can allow something so corrupt to happen. Read that article. I really encourage you. You read that article.” So, I read [More…]
Biden Executive Orders Revoke Trump Legacy; Will He Avoid the First Term Disasters of Clinton and Obama? February 23, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 4 7:13 am 32 Biden executive orders show power to circumvent Congress Nothing says presidential power like the power to revoke the executive orders of your predecessor. Case in point: Last week, President Biden signed his 32nd executive order since his January 20, 2021 Inauguration, Executive Order on the Revocation of Executive Order 13801. Here is the link to all of President Biden’s executive orders as maintained by the Federal Register. Just like that, with each [More…]
Failure of Democrats to Apply the Pelosi-Nadler Impeachment Test Drives Trump’s Return to Power February 17, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 3 1:13 pm The sinister smirk that said impeachment was abuse of authority The image of that sinister smirk is emblazoned in my mind. It was a we-finally-got-him smirk by one of the US House impeachment managers as they walked ceremoniously past the TV crews in the Capitol Rotunda to deliver the Articles of Impeachment to the US Senate. It was a smirk that confirmed what I had grown to believe, that the House majority had weaponized their impeachment authority [More…]
Impeachment Trial Will Show Foolish Demagoguery as Constitutional, Not an Incitement of Insurrection February 9, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 2 4:13 pm Foolish demagoguery is constitutional Donald Trump brings out the worst in everyone, friend and foe alike. He brings out the worst in friends when he expects blind loyalty to everything he says or does, even if his expectations explode angrily from a narcissistic temper tantrum rather than the wise counsel of presidential advisors. Think of these former Trump Administration officials who were summarily dismissed and thrown under the bus by Trump in a tirade of insulting tweets because [More…]
The US Constitution Giveth and the US Constitution Taketh Away; Blessed Be the US Constitution February 2, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 1 11:13 am US Constitution requires 67 votes for conviction. Period. End of story. Next Monday, February 8, 2021, former president Donald Trump will try to win an acquittal in the court of public opinion by arguing during his second impeachment trial that he was unfairly cheated out of a second term in the Oval Office. That the January 6 storming of the US Capitol was spontaneous, not orchestrated. That lawlessness was due to a few bad [More…]
December 16, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 12 4:13 pm Grace in defeat is not in the DNA of most partisans It was an especially contentious presidential race. Two parties starkly divided using their corps of politically biased news reporters to advance personal attacks and argue that they were the only true protector of American virtues. One party favoring strong, centralized federal rule and higher taxes; the other preferring a decentralized federal government and lower taxes. Two presidential contenders. The incumbent President of the United States challenged by a seasoned pro who had run for president before and whose resume [More…]
November 3, 2020 Election Results for US and NC Races November 4, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 12 3:13 pm Trump wins North Carolina; 74.56% turnout! Trump wins North Carolina. As of today, a total of 5,487,252 North Carolina ballots have been cast in the 2020 General Election, a record turnout of 74.56%. And, as of this writing, President Donald Trump is carrying North Carolina with 2,732,084 to former Vice President Joe Biden’s 2,655,383. As to whether Trump or Biden will be president during the next four years, we will have to wait a couple weeks due to [More…]
Final Forecasts for US and NC Races Based on Late Events That Expose Partisan Strengths and Weaknesses October 29, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 11 9:13 am Political malfeasance in front of 63 million voters October 22, 2020, 10:22 pm. If the Trump-Biden presidential debate last Thursday night had ended at 10:22 pm, the moment Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden glanced down at his watch to check the time, he may still be in the running in battleground states like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Regrettably, for Biden and his supporters, the debate did not end until after he was [More…]
Leadership North Carolina, Raleigh, NC, November 5, 2019
“I thought John’s presentation was well thought out and thorough. Very informative and the 3 coffees works well as a memorable solution to the current lack of courteous discourse.”
“John Davis’ presentation was incredible and stated the obvious, having honest and open conversations. In our everyday lives, we encounter folks who are polar opposite from us. In order to move forward from where we are, we have to be open to listening to other points of view. “
“John Davis is a state treasure! He is consistently balanced, insightful, and entertaining.”
Audience Comments, Leadership North Carolina, November 5, 2019
NC Association of Community College Trustees, Raleigh, NC, April 5, 2019
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way. As always, John Davis is the best, one-stop source for bi-partisan information in the most comprehensive and most entertaining package/presentation for audiences of various levels of political acumen.”
Julie Woodson, Pres/CEO, NC Assn of Community College Trustees
It does not matter politically that everything President Donald Trump is accused of by US House Democrats is true if the alternative to President Trump is worse. After witnessing both the spectacle of the hyper-partisan impeachment proceedings, that failed to convert a single bipartisan vote, and the testimony by DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz exposing corruption in the highest ranks of the FBI, many Americans will undoubtedly conclude that the alternative to Trump is worse.
What’s worse than President Trump’s everyday appalling comments and behavior? How about FBI lawyers who alter CIA email to say that a respected CIA informant, Naval Academy graduate and Trump campaign advisor Carter Page, was not a CIA asset? Intentionally falsifying a FISA application document is illegal. Withholding exculpatory information is the reason Carter Page was unjustly suspected of spying for Russia and why the FISA court approved spying on Carter Page. [More …]
The impeachment proceedings beginning today in the US House must ultimately be seen in the court of public opinion as fair, unvengeful and bipartisan. Otherwise, Democrats will be facing a political backlash in 2020. A backlash that would likely include a second term for President Trump and perhaps two more conservatives on the United States Supreme Court.
On impeachment, US House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-South Carolina, said on CNN’s State of the Union, “If the public ever feels that we are being political with this, we will have done a tremendous harm to the country, to the Constitution, and to the people that we are sworn to serve.” Clyburn knows that in the court of public opinion, how the public “feels” about the impeachment proceedings against President Trump is far more important than the facts of the case.
President Trump can be “indicted” in a formal proceeding like the impeachment hearings but exonerated in the court of public opinion. That’s what happened to President Bill Clinton in 1998.
US House Republicans learned the hard way in 1998 that you can’t win just by exploiting the misfortunes of a scandal-plagued president. That strategic misjudgment could easily be repeated this year if, as Rep. James Clyburn said, the “public ever feels” that the US House Democrats are “being political” with the Trump impeachment hearings. [More …]
Partisan districts are one of the two root causes of the partisan incivility in America today. That’s because partisan zealots who live in those districts demand that their representatives stick to partisan ideals, even if nothing gets done. Compromise with the enemy and you lose your next primary race.
Ideals have become more important than deals. Republican ideals and Democratic ideals; the ideals of African-American voters and Hispanic voters in their majority-minority districts. Deal making, essential to incremental progress on the needs of the state and nation, has become an act of betrayal.
Moral superiority. That’s the second of the two root causes of partisan incivility in America. Public policy issues have become moral issues. Good versus evil. You can’t compromise your morals. You must not associate with politically immoral voters. Stay huddled at a distance with your moral tribe.
It’s time to move on from the root causes of political incivility. It’s time to urge our leaders to back a bill like H140, the FAIR Act, that will greatly reduce the number of partisan districts in the state. It’s time to ask our leaders to shift their focus from ideals to deals and to start treating each other like family. [More…]
We are a nation and state in which partisan leaders of every government branch are in political check. It’s why federal leaders in Washington are gridlocked on issues important to voters like immigration, gun violence and health care. It’s why state leaders in Raleigh can’t pass a budget.
A gridlocked nation and state in check at every turn is why voters are furious. It is why absolutely no partisan leader, from the White House and the US Congress to the Governor’s Mansion and the General Assembly, has a guaranteed 2020 political advantage.
President Trump has been checked from day one by disloyal federal bureaucrats, who can’t be fired, undermining his every move. Checked by angry, indictment-hungry US House Democrats using congressional oversight power to orchestrate justification for Articles of Impeachment.
Ironically, the Democratic House caucus is itself checked by feuding factions over impeachment; a divided caucus led by aging, out-of-touch leaders from by-gone eras checked by disrespectful squads of youthful, more liberal insurgents.
We are a nation in political check at every turn. Left and right. Rich and poor. Men and women of all races, ethnicities, sexual orientations, religions and political persuasions. The wealthy checked by the wealthy. Generations by generations. Liberal federal judges checked by conservative judges. [More…]
The US Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision split along partisan appointment lines, upheld the North Carolina Republican legislature’s partisan gerrymandered congressional maps in a ruling announced this morning in the Rucho v. Common Cause case. The decision, delivered by Chief Justice John Roberts, also concluded that under the US Constitution, any remedy to issues of partisan unfairness in mapmaking should be addressed by the states and the Congress, not the federal courts.
While acknowledging that “excessive partisanship in districting leads to results that reasonably seem unjust,” Chief Justice Roberts stated that partisan gerrymandering claims “present political questions beyond the reach of the federal courts.”
From now on, issues of partisan gerrymandering are for the states and the congress to decide.
Here are several highlights of the opinion:
“… the Constitution does not require proportional representation, and federal courts are neither equipped nor authorized to apportion political power as a matter of fairness.”
“This courts one-person, one-vote cases recognize that each person is entitled to an equal say in the election of representatives. It hardly follows from that principle that a person is entitled to have his political party achieve representation commensurate to its share of statewide support.”
“Vote dilution in the one-person, one-vote cases refers to the idea that each vote must carry equal weight. That requirement does not extend to political parties; it does not mean that each party must be influential in proportion to the number of its supporters.” [More…]
At 10 am this morning, Thursday, June 27, 2019, the US Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of partisan gerrymandering in North Carolina. The case, Rucho v. Common Cause, is one of the five final decisions of the term which began the first Monday of October 2018.
It is because of America’s time-honored, winner-take-all political system that I believe the court is more likely to uphold the right of the majority party to gerrymander congressional and legislative districts to their party’s advantage.
Further, my sense is that the US Supreme Court is getting weary of the clutter of politically motivated partisan gerrymandering cases every 10 years and will rule that those claims are no longer a matter for the federal courts. That means the individual states will have the exclusive responsibility for the determination of the fairness of partisan gerrymandering in their state.
I’m betting on a decision today that upholds partisan gerrymandering as one of the spoils of partisan political warfare. A decision that also concludes that any remedy to issues of partisan unfairness in mapmaking should be addressed by the states, not the federal courts.
In the court of voter opinion, Democrats are just as crooked as Republicans; an “indictment” does not have to be from a grand jury. A plausible accusation will do.
That’s why Democrats may want to wait until the next report from DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz, on the FBI’s handling of the Trump-Russia collusion investigation, before trying to gain a 2020 political advantage by proceeding with impeachment hearings against President Trump.
Will these two investigations help Republicans build the case in 2020 for a plausible accusation that senior FBI officials were politically biased in obtaining FISA warrants to spy on the Trump campaign? That they relied on opposition research funded by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC?
That’s all Trump needs politically in 2020. A plausible accusation. An “indictment” against his accusers in the court of voter opinion.
Simply put, Democrats are not going to win an “indictment” fight with President Trump. He is the better street fighter. He cheats. He bites. He hits below the belt. He provokes reckless vengeance. [More …]
Gallup’s annual Political Composition of the 50 US States, based on an aggregate of daily tracking polls across the year 2018, shows that Massachusetts is the most Democratic-friendly state, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 29 points. The most Republican-friendly state is Wyoming, where the GOP enjoys a 34-point advantage over the number of Democrats.
North Carolina? Right in the middle. A perfectly balanced swing state. Among the Top 10 Most Competitive in the United States, says Gallup. Where 42% of North Carolina voters are Republican/Lean Republican and 41% are Democratic/Lean Democratic.
Being a Top 10 Most Competitive state means the degree of difficulty for winning campaigns and governing is high compared to the states where one party has a clear advantage. Two other factors are further complicating North Carolina politics, divided government and high population growth.
The National Conference of State Legislatures table of partisan power in the 50 states shows that only two of the Top 10 Most Competitive states have divided state governments, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Both have Republican legislatures and Democratic governors.
And then there’s this: four of the Top 10 Most Competitive states, including North Carolina, are also among the nation’s fastest growing. And 77% of North Carolina’s growth is from in-migration. [More…]
Thanks to websites like Media Bias/Fact Check, many in the political news media have been caught picking sides. They have been caught being biased toward liberal or conservative causes, “through their story selection.” They intentionally seek to influence their readers or listeners by using words that “appeal to emotion or stereotypes.” They have been caught publishing “misleading reports and omitting reporting of information that may damage their causes.”
Is Fox News biased? No more so than The New Yorker, CNN or MSNBC. All four have been caught fanning the flames of partisan incivility by way of biased reporters and cable TV hosts masquerading as objective professional journalists.
How do you know a journalist is unprofessional? They choose sides. Their reporting intentionally fuels the contempt one faction has for another. Just like the years leading up to the Civil War.
Americans are divided into angry partisan groups who are so polarized that they do not talk with each other; groups led by ambitious demagogues claiming moral authority that must not be compromised. It is a time of partisan incivility. The #1 root cause of the nation’s #1 problem.
On Monday, February 18, 2019, Gallup released the results of its latest national survey of public opinion on the nation’s ills under the headline, Record High Name Government as Most Important Problem. The number of Americans naming “Government, poor leadership or politicians” as the nation’s #1 problem is the highest in 55 years, even higher than during the Watergate scandal.
Significantly, Gallup reports that both parties agree on the #1 problem. I repeat: both parties are tied in agreement that the #1 problem facing the nation is “Government, poor leadership or politicians.”
Causes? Of course, loyal Democrats and Republicans blame each other. However, per Gallup, “About half … blame both parties or cite ‘gridlock,’ ‘lack of cooperation.’”
President Trump and the GOP have dug themselves into a hole with suburban white women and independent voters that will be difficult to climb out of without a little luck and some political gifts from the Democrats in 2020. Gifts like a flawed presidential nominee. Luck like the 2016 “October Surprise” letter from FBI Director James Comey, reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails.
Donald Trump never would have won the Oval Office without a gift like Hillary Clinton, the first female nominee of a major party, who lost 53% of all white women to Trump, including 45% of white women with college degrees, per CNN exit polls. Who lost independent voters 46% to 42%.
But in 2018, per CNN exit polls, Democrats won independent voters back, 54% to 42%.
Independent men flipped from Trump +12 points in 2016 to Democrats +7 points in 2018
Independent women’s support for Democrats from +5 points in 2016 to +17 points in 2018
Women, overall in 2018, favored Democrats by 59% to 40%. White women, who had supported Trump with 53% over Clinton in 2016, were tied at 49% each for Democrats and Republicans.
Bottom line: Republican-held swing seats, whether state legislative or congressional, in suburban America, are now almost all in the hands of Democrats. Upper income, highly-educated suburban white voters in large metropolitan areas are now, in the age of President Trump, predictably Democratic.
The newly realigned Democratic coalition as an Electoral College threat to the GOP in the 2020 race for the White House, however, is offset equally by the newly realigned Republican coalition.
White working-class districts that voted for Obama-then-Trump are now becoming predictably Republican. They are joining white red-state conservatives in the South and Midwest to form a solid, Electoral College coalition equal in potential to the Democratic Electoral College coalition of coastal blue states and large states with dominant urban/suburban progressives.
The same political realignment of the political parties is taking place here North Carolina. Republicans are getting wiped out in urban counties. After Tuesday’s elections, Wake County has only one Republican member of its 16-member delegation to the North Carolina General Assembly, Senator John Alexander. For emphasis: Wake County has zero “0” GOP-held seats in the North Carolina House.
In addition to losing almost all legislative seats in North Carolina’s largest urban counties, Republicans also lost seven GOP-held districts carried by Hillary Clinton. A combination of those two categories of losses cost Republicans their supermajorities in both the North Carolina Senate and House.
The North Carolina Senate went from a 35-15 Republican supermajority to a Republican majority of 29-21. The North Carolina House went from a 75-45 supermajority to a 66-54 Republican majority. And, although a loss of supermajorities is politically devastating for Republicans — they now have to reckon with Governor Cooper and his veto power — the fact is that North Carolina is a swing state, with about 40% Republican/Lean Republican and 40% Democratic/Lean Democratic.
That’s why I used the term “political correction” in the title of this report. Blue urban counties voted Democratic, including their once-GOP suburbs. Red rural and ex-urban counties voted Republican. We corrected ourselves politically into the perfectly balanced swing state that we are.
Tuesday was a win-win election for both Republicans and Democrats, nationally and in North Carolina. We are now a state and nation of divided power. A positive political correction.
Old-school, baggage-laden, out-of-touch establishment Democrats like Bill and Hillary Clinton are the #1 obstacle to the Democratic Party’s political recovery efforts in 2018. They are motivating conservative women to vote in record numbers with insults and dismissiveness. Conservative women don’t think for themselves. You should believe liberal women victims of sexual assault but not Bill Clinton’s conservative sexual assault victims.
Which political party do you believe has a higher degree of moral authority on matters of sexual misconduct? After careful consideration of that question, I have concluded the following: both parties are tied at zero on anything to do with moral authority and sexual misconduct. Zero each. Period.
The great irony of the #MeToo movement is that it has confirmed what women who supported President Trump in 2016 have known all along: Democratic men are in no position to claim moral authority on matters of sexual misconduct over Republican men because they are just as bad.
That’s why Democrats who think that they are going to gain politically with their moral outrage over the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearing are in for a rude awakening. Democrats have zero moral authority with allegations of Republican sexual misconduct as long as they are dismissive of allegations against former president Bill Clinton of rape (Juanita Broaddrick), groping (Kathleen Willey), sexual assault (Leslie Millwee) and exposing himself (Paula Jones).
Whether embattled US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed or not, political history overwhelmingly argues for the likelihood of a 5-4 conservative Court.
A new analysis titled The Senate: How 2018 Sets Up 2020, published on the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics website on September 27, 2018, notes the following compelling facts:
Only twice in the history of US Senate popular elections (since 1914) has a party won 80% of the US Senate races: the 1932 Franklin Roosevelt landslide election (Great Depression era), and the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide election after President Kennedy’s assassination.
In order to net two (2) additional seats needed to seize the US Senate majority in 2018, Democrats must win 28 of the 35 contested seats (80%).
Democrats are disadvantaged in 2018 by the fact that they hold 26 of the 35 US Senate seats being contested, with 10 of the 26 Democrats running in states carried by Trump.
I see two political waves on the horizon. One, farther out, is a generational wave that is about to sweep the nation of aging leaders in both parties. That’s the wave likely to swamp Republicans in 2020. As for the 2018 Democratic blue wave, it’s not likely to breach the Trump/GOP seawall because of historic economic expansion, President Trump’s job approval among Republicans, gerrymandered GOP-friendly districts, a bitter, out-of-touch Democratic establishment, and a political backlash against anti-Trump collusion among senior Obama Administration FBI officials.
Why is the generational wave likely to swamp Republicans in 2020? Because every study shows that emerging generations are far more progressive than their parents and grandparents.
Per Pew Research, six-in-ten Millennial voters (born since about 1980) are more likely to vote Democratic, which includes independents who lean Democratic. Among young women, 70% are more likely to vote Democratic.
A fight with allies over the fairness of foreign trade deficits and foreign defense costs is a fight Donald Trump has wanted to have for over 30 years.
On September 2, 1987, Manhattan’s real estate developer Donald J. Trump spent $94,801 for a full-page ad in the New York Times, the Boston Globe and the Washington Post with the heading, There’s nothing wrong with America’s foreign and defense policy that a little backbone can’t cure. The subheading read, An open letter from Donald J Trump on why America should stop paying to defend countries that can afford to defend themselves.”
Writing in 1987, then about Japan and Saudi Arabia, Donald J. Trump the Manhattan real estate developer used the very language President Trump uses today:
“Japan and other nations have been taking advantage of the United States.”
“Why are these nations not paying the United States for the human lives and billions of dollars we are losing to protect their interests?”
Donald Trump ended the letter with the appeal, “Let America’s economy grow unencumbered by the cost of defending those who can easily afford to pay us for the defense of their freedom.”
North Carolina Republicans will begin the fall state legislative races with a major advantage in the number of friendly districts, all thanks to this week’s U.S. Supreme Court rulings upholding the standard for fairness established by Democrats during the 20th Century.
The Democratic standard for fairness? Extreme partisan gerrymandering.
So, are the North Carolina maps finally fixed for fall 2018 races? Yes.
As of Thursday, June 28, 2018, an 8-1 U.S. Supreme Court ruling secured North Carolina’s legislative maps as currently drawn for the fall. Per the Associated Press, “It means the districts used to elect nominees in the May primary should be the ones used in the November general election, and no special candidacy filing periods and elections are required.”
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy made a surprise announcement today of his intention to retire July 31, opening the opportunity for President Trump to solidify a conservative advantage on the nation’s highest court this year.
Kennedy, nominated by President Ronald Reagan in 1988, was often the court’s swing vote. He cast the deciding votes on many controversial decisions including the constitutional right to same-sex marriage, and Citizens United, the decision giving unlimited free speech rights to groups making independent expenditures during political campaigns.
It was also Kennedy who often sided with conservatives, like many of the rulings this month:
June 4: Colorado baker, who refused to make a wedding cake for a gay couple, has a constitutional right to have his religion treated with impartiality by government
June 18: “Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering” cases in Wisconsin and Maryland “punted” back to lower courts
June 21: OK’d sales taxes on online purchases (NC losing $400 M yearly per NCRMA)
June 25: “Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering” case in NC “punted” back to lower courts
June 26: Pro-life crisis pregnancy centers cannot be forced to provide information re: taxpayer-funded abortions
June 26: Trump’s Travel Ban on 7 mostly-Muslim countries upheld on president’s right to secure borders
June 27: Can’t force government employees to pay union dues
It’s hard to believe, but it was only a week ago, Tuesday, June 12, 2018, that President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made history by shaking hands in Singapore. People throughout the world are encouraged that there will be denuclearization and reunification of the Korean Peninsula.
As to political value, the event was spectacular. Even liberal news sources like The Atlantic published positive stories about the handshake seen around the globe.
Peter Beinart, contributing editor at The Atlantic and an associate professor of journalism and political science at the City University of New York, in a story titled, Why Can’t Democrats Give Trump Credit on North Korea?, wrote, “So, painful as it is, Democrats should give Trump the credit that, in this rare instance, he is due. In Singapore, two of the worst leaders in modern history met. And they made the world a safer place.”
Satisfaction with direction of country driving up Trump’s job approval
Bold leadership on the world stage along with record economic expansion and low unemployment at home are having a positive impact on President Trump’s job approval, a powerful predictor of the midterm elections referendum on the White House. Per Gallup’s June 18 national survey release:
Per today’s Washington Post, nationally, “about 17.6% of Democrats missed the last three elections, compared to about 10.3% of Republicans.” That’s about 6 million more Democrats than Republicans who did not vote in 2012, 2014 or 2016.
There is only one woman who can bring down the Trump Administration
Clearly, Democrats and had hoped to bring down the Trump Administration with ads about the President’s extramarital affairs with porn stars and Playboy bunnies. Unfortunately, there are too many Democrats like Bill Clinton and Anthony Wiener, along with hundreds of others exposed by the #MeToo movement like Harvey Weinstein, to claim a partisan moral high ground on sexual abuse.
Ironically, the #MeToo movement validated the claims of women who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, despite his history of disrespecting women, because they knew that many Democrats were as bad.
Last Tuesday, June 5, Harvey Weinstein, leading Democrat fundraiser, pleaded not guilty to charges of rape and sexual assault. He has been accused by over 70 women of sexual misconduct.
POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF TRUMP’S AFFAIRS: None. There is only one woman who can destroy the Trump presidency over extramarital improprieties: First Lady Melania Trump.
SCOTUS rules government “hostility” towards Christians unconstitutional in favor of Colorado baker who refused to bake wedding cake for gay couple
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-to-2 today in favor of a Christian baker in Lakewood, Colorado, who refused to make a wedding cake for a same-sex couple because of his religious convictions. The court stated that the religious beliefs of the owner of Masterpiece Cakeshop, Jack Phillips, were not treated with impartiality by the Colorado Civil Rights Commission, which ruled earlier that he had discriminated against the gay couple.
Here are key points:
Colorado Civil Rights Commission violated the baker’s First Amendment religious rights by “showing hostility” towards the baker’s religious beliefs;
Colorado Civil Rights Commission was “neither tolerant nor respectful of his religious beliefs,” and instead, “showed animus” towards the baker, thereby violating the baker’s rights.
Liberal justices Stephen Breyer and Elena Kagan joined the four conservative justices, along with Justice Anthony Kennedy, a swing vote, in the 7-2 decision.
Liberal justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor were the two dissenting justices.
FOR EMPHASIS: The U.S. Supreme Court DID NOT RULE that a baker has a constitutional right to refuse service to a gay couple. The court ruled that Christian bakers have a constitutional right to have their religious beliefs treated with impartiality and neutrality by the government.
Writing for the court, Justice Anthony Kennedy said that the larger issue of the constitutionality of the right to refuse a service to a gay couple based on religious convictions “must await further elaboration” in the courts. Many such cases are pending.
POLITCIAL IMPLICATIONS: Politically, this is a major win for religious conservatives who have long felt that the federal judiciary and other government officials have not respected their right to faith-based business practices.
Hang on to your hats, ladies and gentlemen, June is going to be a wild political ride.
Every single week in June, major U.S. Supreme Court decisions will be announced. Every Tuesday in June, primaries will be held. Globally significant talks between the U.S. and North Korea are in June.
In June, we will likely see more indictments resulting from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into whether the Trump campaign colluded with the Russian government during the 2016 presidential race. But will the June indictments be close enough to home to have any political fallout?
We will also likely see a report in June by Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz critical of how the FBI handled the Hillary Clinton email investigation. That report will give President Trump all the Twitter ammunition he needs to discredit the Justice Department and the FBI, offsetting any political fallout from the Russian collusion probe.
If President Trump does succeed in the denuclearization of North Korea during the coming months, his job approval will likely reach 50% by Labor Day, adding great height to his seawall of success in defense against the threat of a Democratic wave in November. A seawall already well-fortified by major regulatory and tax reform, economic expansion, jobs/wages growth, and favorable foreign trade deals.
The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of success. Remember, midterm elections are a referendum on the White House.
So, which will be higher? The wave or the seawall?
My sense is the Democratic wave is losing energy. Too many Democrats poisoning the party’s political potential with bitterness over having lost the presidential campaign to the likes of Donald Trump and his “deplorable” supporters. Bitterness exposing liberal hatred and bigotry. Elitism.
The Murder of Vernon Dahmer for Registering Blacks to Vote
There they were! I knew that I had kept them. Finally, after an hour and a half of digging through a lifetime of dusty boxes in the attic last Sunday night I found the newspaper articles I had clipped almost 43 years ago from the Hattiesburg AMERICAN, the daily paper in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, the county seat of Forrest County. I carefully unfolded each of the eight faded and brittle articles one at a time, reading and remembering:
Thursday, Jan. 25, 1968 11 charged with murder and arson
Friday, Mar. 8, 1968, Pitts pleads guilty to Dahmer charges; Anticipated state’s witness faces life on murder count plus long arson sentence
Monday, Mar. 11, 1968, Selection of jury begins for Sessum murder trial
Tuesday, Mar. 12, 1968, Jury completed for Sessum murder trial; pistol removed from purse carried by defendant’s wife
Wednesday, Mar. 13, 1968, Car brought into trial testimony; FBI agent says bullet-marked auto belonged to one defendant
Thursday, Mar. 14, 1968, Pitts puts finger on Sessum, other Klansmen; Names seven he said accompanied him in fatal fire-bombing raid on Dahmer place
Friday, Mar. 15, 1968, Defense tries hard to discredit Pitts; … the verdict.
On the night of January 10, 1966, Vernon Dahmer, 58, an African American businessman who served as President of the Forrest County NAACP, was murdered when his house and store in a rural community just north of Hattiesburg were firebombed by a raiding party of 13 members of the Ku Klux Klan. Dahmer, along with his wife and three children, escaped from their burning home by breaking a back bedroom window and climbing out, running to the barn to hide.
Before escaping the inferno, Dahmer ran into the blazing front living room and returned fire with his shotgun through the picture window. He was burned about the head, arms, and upper body.
Yes, a political wave is looming on the horizon. But it’s more generational than partisan. If it has a color, it’s more an independent purple than a Democratic blue. A big, purple wave that is certain to crash ashore and wash away aging, inflexible leaders in both parties. But when?
According to a study of North Carolina registered voters conducted by Dr. Michael Bitzer, Professor of Politics and History at Catawba College, as of Monday, February 5, 2018, Millennials (Born 1981-1997) and Generation Z (Born 1998 and after) are now 32% of the state’s 6.8 million registered voters, surpassing Baby Boomers as the state’s largest cohort on the voter rolls.
Millennials/Generation Z (Born since 1981): 32% of NC registered voters
Baby Boomers (1945-1965): 31% of NC registered voters
Generation X (1966-1980) are 27% of NC registered voters
Greatest/Silent Generation (Before 1945): 10% of NC registered voters
Millennials have a far more independent streak than older generations, contributing to the growth of Unaffiliated voters, who now outnumber Republicans for the first time in state history.
As to race and ethnicity, per Dr. Bitzer’s 2017 year-end analysis, Baby Boomers are White (74%), Black (20%), Other (6%), while Millennials are White (61%), Black (25%), Other (13%, primarily Hispanic and Asian voters).
A new study of the partisan bias of each of the state’s 170 legislative districts, released today by the non-partisan political research organization NCFEF (NC FreeEnterprise Foundation), confirms a convincing GOP advantage in the 2018 legislative seats that in my judgment argues well for ongoing Republican majorities in the North Carolina Senate and House for the remainder of the decade.
In the 50-member North Carolina Senate, Republicans have 27 friendly seats compared to only 16 friendly seats for the Democrats. As a simple majority in the state Senate is 26 seats, Republicans can lose all seven seats considered “Competitive” by NCFEF and still hold the majority.
In the 120-member North Carolina House of Representatives, Republicans have 64 friendly seats compared to only 42 for the Democrats. As a simple majority in the state House is 61 seats, Republicans can lose all 14 seats considered “competitive” by NCFEF and still hold the majority.
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled on Tuesday, February 6, that all but 11 of the 170 Republican-drawn legislative districts were allowed to stand for 2018, dashing the hopes of Democrats for taking back either the North Carolina Senate or House this year. The 11 districts, redrawn by the federal court’s “special master,” are in only six of the state’s 100 counties: Cumberland, Guilford, Hoke, Bladen, Sampson and Wayne. All others remain as drawn by Republicans.
On Monday morning, February 12, 2018, with candidate filing opening at noon, a three-judge state panel denied a last-ditch effort by Democrats to change state legislative maps. Republican-friendly districts will once again greatly outnumber the Democratic-friendly districts for the 2018 elections. Filing for 170 state legislative and 13 congressional seats continues through February 28, 2018.
Republicans have a 35/15 supermajority in the North Carolina Senate; a 75/45 supermajority in the North Carolina House. This week’s US Supreme Court ruling means that state Democrats will likely shift their political priorities to breaking the GOP supermajorities, rather than breaking the majorities.
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (D-Nash) has raised $2.4 million for Break the Majority, a state Democratic Party political action fund for legislative candidates. And, Democrats can count on a substantial amount of support from out-of-state groups.
Eric Holder, former US Atty. Gen. during the Obama administration, has formed the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, and plans to invest millions of dollars in legislative campaigns in a dozen states, including North Carolina, “in an effort to block Republicans from single-handedly drawing congressional maps after 2020,” said the New York Times on February 6, 2018.
But, Republicans can count on outside money too. On Saturday, January 27, 2018, the conservative billionaire Koch brothers and their allies announced that they plan to spend $400 million during the midterm elections to help the GOP keep their majorities in Washington, DC and other state capitals. Much of that money will be spent by Americans for Prosperity, a conservative organization known for their effectiveness in getting North Carolina Republicans out to vote.
It strikes me that a $400 million political commitment from conservative billionaires means that Democrats can forget gaining a financial advantage in 2018 through liberal billionaires.
First and foremost, President Trump’s #1 most important political feat during his first year in office is using his Twitter account to discredit his detractors, particularly liberal news journalists.
President Trump sent over 2,500 tweets during his first year in office
Using daily Tweets and friendly cable news sources like Fox News, President Trump has completely disrupted the “Golden Age” of White House news coverage, historically dominated by a small number of liberal-leaning TV networks and big city daily newspapers.
In recognizing President Trump as #1 Media Power Player of the year in 2017, Broadcasting & Cable magazine cautioned readers against assuming that Trump “governs solely by whim,” concluding that he is “the most compelling change agent this business has seen.”
Nothing sends Trump voters into a frenzy of roaring approval more than his calling out the “Fake News” media. That’s why his #1 most important POLITICAL feat likely to drive up turnout of the GOP base this fall is using Twitter to define himself a winner and his detractors as losers.
In a close second, reversing President Barack Obama’s executive orders.
The biggest mistake President Trump’s detractors are making is judging him by conventional presidential standards. There never has been nor will there ever be anything conventional about Donald Trump.
Trump defeated the Republican and Democratic political dynasties in 2016 because he was unconventional. Because three solid decades of outrageous, politically incorrect behavior virtually guaranteed that he would continue to be that way when he got to the Oval Office. Especially when dealing with privileged and powerful Washington insiders. Like the news media.
So outrageous and politically incorrect that establishment observers think he’s crazy.
At 1:50 am Saturday morning, with Vice President Pence presiding over a Yea 51-Nay 49 vote, President Donald Trump and US Senate Republicans practically assured that a major tax reform bill will be under the GOP’s 2017 Christmas tree, one already piled high with gifts including record Dow Jones averages (Dec 1: 24,232), a 17-year low unemployment rate (4.1% in October), and a higher-than-expected 3.3% GDP for Q3 2017. Senate and House GOP leaders will begin ironing out their differences on Monday, with the President’s signature likely before the December break.
With the success of the tax reform bill, much of the credit for the nation’s economic growth in the coming months can be claimed by President Trump and Congressional Republicans. Trump will be credited with deal-making skills and GOP lawmakers will be credited with being able to govern.
Success breeds success. Look for US Senate and US House Republicans, along with vulnerable Democratic US Senators running in red states, to collaborate on a Trump-led agenda in 2018. You can expect an infrastructure bill (including “The Wall”), new trade deals with China and other Asian countries, and repatriation of $2.4 trillion foreign profits parked abroad due to a 35% corporate tax rate.
With more legislative successes now likely, Trump’s job approval and favorability ratings will grow at the very least to the mid-40s throughout 2018. Not remarkable, but enough to stop a Democratic wave election and keep the majorities in both the US Senate and US House in the grip of Republicans.
The forewarning from Virginia for North Carolina’s 2018 candidates, especially Republicans, is that Republicans went from a 32-seat advantage (66-34) in the Virginia House of Delegates to a slim 51-49 majority. Two GOP committee chairs were defeated, along with four GOP members of the powerful Appropriations Committee.
But, the most important forewarning for North Carolina Republicans is that 11 of the 15 Republican incumbents who lost legislative races were defeated by Democratic women.
Democratic women in Virginia, shaken to the core by Hillary Clinton’s defeat, were reinvigorated by the Women’s March on Washington on January 21, 2017, then inspired all year long by anti-Trump fervor stirred by liberal women activists and their allied groups. For emphasis:
Republicans went from a 32-seat advantage (66-34) to a slim 51-49 majority
15 seats flipped GOP to Dem, 11 of 15 won by Dem women over GOP male incumbents
Women are now 27% of Virginia legislature (women were 19%)
Female winners in House of Delegate races include the 1st Asian delegate, 1st Latina delegates (2), the 1st Trans woman delegate and 1st openly lesbian candidate
In a twist of poetic justice, the state’s first transgender woman delegate defeated the Republican incumbent who drafted the “bathroom bill” in Virginia, similar to North Carolina’s HB2.
President Trump understands that better than anyone else in Washington DC. That’s why he is indifferent to the outrage of his critics like US Sen. Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican who chairs the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Corker has questioned the president’s “stability” and “competence.” He tweeted Sunday that “the White House has become an adult day care center.”
That’s it for Corker. He is now in the Trump trap. The latest Republican on a long list to fall prey to Trump’s ploy of needling his opponents into the tangled web of reactionary vindictiveness.
The Trump trap. Force your opponent to defend the way things have always been done … in the swamp. In Washington, DC. Where working class Americans struggling with inadequate employment opportunities are ignored in favor of those freed by the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision to form super PACs and buy the influence of elected and appointed insiders with hundreds of millions of untraceable dollars.
Yes, that swamp.
Congressional leaders take heed: Every despicable, incompetent, crude, insulting, immature, reckless, irresponsible and insensitive thing that Trump has ever said or done COMBINED, is not as bad in the minds of his supporters as a do-nothing federal government rigged for the privileged few.
The biggest political mistake being made today by establishment leaders of all institutions everywhere, at every level, is underestimating the ability of President Donald J. Trump to get what he wants. The Establishment is in denial. Establishment denial is Trump’s greatest political advantage among the four key predictors of 2018 likely winners, including the economy, Supreme Court decisions on immigration and redistricting, and presidential job approval.
Establishment denial. It’s as if the Establishment cannot bring themselves to acknowledge that a self-made billionaire … one with his name atop 65 resort properties and skyscrapers scattered over the world, the author of 15 books, including best sellers, with a degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and the conqueror of two political dynasties, the Democratic Clintons and the Republican Bushes … just might be as smart as they are. Or God forbid, even smarter!
Further, the news media elite of all persuasions, the academic community and many of the best and brightest from the worlds of business and government cannot bear to admit Trump’s ability to get what he wants without their genius and support. In Trump’s Washington, DC, they are no longer indispensable.
Establishment hubris; establishment denial is Trump’s greatest political asset.
The issue of what to do with North Carolina’s Confederate monuments is a matter that must only be answered locally, city by city, “in accordance with the law,” by way of a process that recognizes and respects opposing views. Otherwise, we risk more of the destruction of monuments and the disfiguring of statues, as we have seen in Durham, or the violence we saw in Charlottesville.
It is a mistake for our statewide politicians, including our Democratic governor and our Republican state legislature, to force how local communities resolve this matter. If the governor and legislature want to provide leadership on the issue, they need to call a Special Session and pass a bipartisan model process for how each city in North Carolina can resolve the issue of Confederate monuments locally.
The primary reason we need a sensible process for to how to resolve the issue of Confederate monuments locally is because too many people on all sides think that their moral authority on racially sensitive issues is so absolute that it warrants the dismissiveness of other views. That it justifies the enforcement of their views on everyone else.
Far too many of us … including many in the university community, rural conservative Southerners, members of the news media, liberal elites clustered in big cities and elected officials in both parties … bask in an air of righteous dismissiveness, especially on matters of racially sensitive issues.
That’s why, after considering the lawlessness in Charlottesville and Durham over the issue of Confederate monuments, I would like to recommend a more civil model … the way the City of New Orleans resolved the issue after decades of anger, anxiety, anticipation, humiliation and frustration … as detailed in a speech delivered on May 23, 2017 by New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu.
In 1844, James K. Polk, an 1818 honors graduate from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, won the race for U.S. President despite being accused by his opponent, Henry Clay, of being a “slave trader.” The accusation was based on “a completely fake excerpt from a book,” according to a Mother Jones story, Ten Most Awesome Presidential Mudslinging Moves Ever.
Fake news 173 years ago!
Henry Clay, a slave owner like Polk, thought he could win the votes of northern abolitionists if he attacked his opponent as worse than a slave owner, a “slave trader,” even though it was not true.
James K. Polk, born in Pineville near Charlotte, had some fake news of his own. He accused Clay of having sex with whores and breaking all the Ten Commandments. When Polk’s Democratic allies were compelled by the press to provide evidence, they declared that the details were “too disgusting to appear in public print.”
What a great political defense! I would tell you, but it’s too disgusting to appear in public print.
Monday’s News & Observer reported that North Carolina Democrats are coming to Raleigh this weekend for their annual Unity Dinner, and Eric Holder, former U.S. Attorney General under President Barack Obama, will speak about how they can take back the reins of political power in state capitols like ours.
As I read the story, I began to imagine what I would say to Democrats if I were on their dais Saturday. After all, the topic of how Democrats can recover their glory days in North Carolina is an intellectual challenge that I have stewed over a lot since the Republican takeover in 2013.
That was the year I wrote a series of reports titled, Top Ten Keys for NC Democratic Political Recovery, arguing that Democrats needed to shift their focus to “moderate voters hungry for a meat and potatoes economy,” and suggesting that “emerging generations must become the party’s priority.”
The final report in the 2013 series, Find a New Balance or Fall like a House of Cards, states that “finding a new balance is the overarching key to political recovery for Democrats.” It concludes with the following thought:
“Demographic trends driven by population growth argue that Democrats have a bright future in North Carolina, but how bright and how soon will be determined by how quickly the party finds a new balance with leaders and issues that will make centrist Democrats and moderate independents feel welcomed.”
That thought is as instructive in 2017 as it was in 2013. It is how I would begin and end what I would say to Democrats if I were on their dais Saturday.
Part 1: Seeing Public Life through the Prism of 50 Years Ago
Democrats have a bright future here in North Carolina and around the nation, assuming they can get beyond their strategy of inclusiveness that excludes everyone except minorities and liberals; if they can come down off the political high ground of ideological rigidity and shift their focus to casting a net of economic opportunities wide enough to rebuild a winning coalition.
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, former Chief of Staff to President Barack Obama, said as much at the Stanford Graduate School of Business on February 6, 2017. Emanuel said that Democrats would rather be right than win. (In my 40 years as a political professional, I have never heard that expression used to describe anyone but Republicans.)
“Winning’s everything,” implored Emanuel. “If you don’t win, you can’t make the public policy. I say that because it is hard for people in our party to accept that principle. Sometimes, you’ve just got to win, OK? Our party likes to be right, even if they lose.”
Today’s establishment Democrats are losing because they are clinging to 20th Century strategic priorities like civil rights, women’s liberation and Great Society poverty programs as if no progress has been made in the last 50 years; as if nothing should be as important to today’s emerging generations of Democrats than yesterday’s agenda.
Two reasons women do so well in North Carolina in races against men is that women outnumber men on the voter registration rolls and women turn out in higher percentages than men.
Registered voters 4/1/2017: 3,564,122 women (54%); 3,017,032 men (46%)
Turnout: 486,000 more women than men in 2012; 515,000 more women in 2016
You would think with those two advantages, and with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket with the potential of becoming the first women elected president of the United States, that all women candidates would have had an advantage in races with men.
But in 2016, gender was not nearly as important to conservative women as ideology and party. In other words, 2016 was not a “War on Women” election, it was a war among women for partisan and ideological advantage.
In North Carolina, that meant that Republican and Republican-leaning women, who turned out in higher numbers than Democratic and Democratic-leaning women, voted Republican all the way up and down the ballot.
That’s why all 6 women who lost, of the 9 who ran against men, were Democrats.
While watching Republican President Donald Trump’s first address to the joint session of the Republican-led U.S. Congress last night, I thought about the same scene eight years ago, when Democratic President Barack Obama stood for the first time before a Democratic-led U.S. Congress, and I wondered if Republicans realize just how vulnerable they are.
That’s the most important political lesson I’ve learned from watching campaigns for power over the public purse for over 40 years. Always remember that you are vulnerable.
Eight years ago, on this day, March 1, 2009 … the 41st day of President Barack Obama’s first term … Democrats wielded all the political power in Washington, DC and in Raleigh.
So much power that they forgot they were vulnerable.
Little did we know on this day in 2009, as the finishing touches were being made in preparation for the inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States, that in less than two years Democrats would suffer one of the most consequential political disasters in American history. Will Trump and the Republicans suffer the same fate in 2018?
In 2010, the Democrats’ 63-seat net loss in US House races had not been seen since 1938. Furthermore, the Democrats lost their rare filibuster-proof advantage in the US Senate.
Among the states, Democrats lost a net of 680 legislative seats in 2010, breaking the record set by Republicans after the post-Watergate GOP political disaster of 1974. Democrats also went from having a majority of the nation’s governorships to only 20 of the 50 state chief executives.
A catastrophic loss of political power at the federal and state level is the lot awaiting the GOP in 2018 if Donald Trump and the Republican congressional leadership make the same mistake that Barack Obama and the Democratic congressional leaders made during his first two years in office.
Time and time again, federal judges appointed by Democrats on the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals have thwarted North Carolina Republican lawmakers.
Now, at the dawn of a conservative federal judiciary, those rulings may one day be overturned. Surely, that’s what Republicans lay awake and dream about.
A decidedly conservative Supreme Court means that the authority to decide many social policy issues will likely return to the states. It means that conservative states like Utah, Alabama, and Wyoming may have laws on controversial issues like abortion and marriage completely different from liberal states like Vermont, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.
It means federal court rulings by judges who see racially discriminatory intent behind conservative election reform laws will be overturned by justices who see constitutionally permissible partisan intent.
The United States Supreme Court is by far the biggest political prize of 2016.
Embattled North Carolina Republican Governor Pat McCrory issued a two-minute video statement early this afternoon, Monday, December 5, 2016, conceding the governor’s race and calling on “all of us to please pray for our new governor, Roy Cooper.”
Just after 2 o’clock PM today, Governor-Elect Cooper acknowledged Governor McCrory’s decision to concede in an email. “I just received a call from Governor McCrory conceding the race and congratulating me on becoming the 75th governor of North Carolina,” wrote Cooper. “It will be the honor of my life to serve this great state,” he said.
Governor McCrory’s list of economic accomplishments was the envy of most governors in the United States, and argued well for a successful race for a second term. However, McCrory made the politically fatal mistake of being the highest-profile proponent of a controversial LGBT rights issue known as HB2 (AKA, “The Bathroom Bill”). The law was passed in haste and in a fit of moral retribution by GOP state lawmakers after the Charlotte City Council enacted an ordinance allowing transgendered individuals to use bathroom facilities of their sexual identity.
HB2 caused an immediate backlash, with many of the state’s largest employers and well admired public and private leaders calling for its repeal. Although the economic impact of the law was grossly overstated, the loss of NCAA and ACC tournaments and relentless national and international ridicule weakened the resolve of many rank and file McCrory supporters.
Sunday morning, October 16, while reading the news of the firebombing of the Republican Party Headquarters in Orange County, I remembered that Michael Moore, the documentary film maker from Flint, Michigan, told Chuck Todd on Meet the Press, Sunday, October 2, 2016, that Donald Trump was a “human Molotov Cocktail” that on Election Day angry voters were going to “throw into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
Michael Moore, second only to Hillary Clinton as the Democrat Republicans despise the most, thought Donald Trump would win the presidency for the same reason the British middle class voted to leave the European Union in the June 23, 2016 Brexit decision. Here is Moore’s pitch:
“From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we used to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats…”
Those are the voters that Moore is talking about when he said to Chuck Todd, “They see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
The person who threw the Molotov Cocktail through the window at the GOP headquarters in Hillsborough and painted “Nazi Republicans leave town or else,” was so angry at Republicans that he or she was willing to risk getting caught and going to jail.
That’s analogous to just how angry the Donald Trump voters are.
New poll results released Monday morning, October 24, 2016, by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic polling firm based in Raleigh, show GOP Governor Pat McCrory’s “Job Approval” now more positive (45%) than negative (43%) for the first time since July 2013. “We’d found Pat McCrory with a negative approval rating every single month since July 2013 until now,” said Tom Jensen, Director, Public Policy Polling.
Jensen attributed McCrory’s turnabout in favorable job approval to his handling of Hurricane Matthew. “There’s little that’s better for a Governor’s approval ratings than a Hurricane that voters perceive them to have handled well,” said Jensen.
WRAL reported that although the financial losses of the legislation totaled $505 million, that was only 0.1% of the state’s $510 billion GDP. Perhaps the minimal economic impact of the controversial LGBT-friendly legislation explains why two new statewide polls of likely voters show a positive trend in Governor Pat McCrory’s race for a second term.
According to a new CNN/ORC poll of likely voters in North Carolina, conducted October 10-15, 2016, North Carolina’s embattled Republican governor has clawed his way back to within one point of his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Roy Cooper, after trailing in almost all statewide voter opinion surveys throughout the election year.
Among likely voters, Cooper leads McCrory by 49% to 48%. That is a major shift in McCrory’s favor since the August CNN/ORC poll, in which McCrory trailed Cooper by six points (Cooper 52%; McCrory 46%).
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted October 10-12, 2016 also found Gov. Pat McCrory with 48% of likely voters, while challenger Roy Cooper received 49%.
Sunday morning, while reading the news of the firebombing of the Republican Party Headquarters in Orange County, I remembered that Michael Moore, the documentary film maker from Flint, Michigan, told Chuck Todd on Meet the Press, Sunday, October 2, 2016, that Donald Trump was a “human Molotov Cocktail” that on Election Day angry voters were going to “throw into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
Michael Moore, second only to Hillary Clinton as the Democrat Republicans despise the most, thinks Donald Trump will win the presidency for the same reason the British middle class voted to leave the European Union in the June 23, 2016 Brexit decision. Here is Moore’s pitch:
“From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we used to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats…”
Those are the voters that Moore is talking about when he said to Chuck Todd, “They see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
The person who threw the Molotov Cocktail through the window at the GOP headquarters in Hillsborough over the weekend and painted “Nazi Republicans leave town or else,” was so angry at Republicans that he or she was willing to risk getting caught and going to jail.
That’s analogous to just how angry the Donald Trump voters are.
For Roy Cooper, the Jonathan Ferrell case has become a lose-lose political dilemma. Not only did African Americans around the state feel betrayed by Cooper for not retrying the case against Randall Kerrick for killing the unarmed Ferrell, but law enforcement officers around the state also felt betrayed by Cooper for seeking an indictment against Kerrick in the first place.
As Jim Morrill noted in his August 16, 2016 story Lingering anger over Kerrick case boils up in N.C. governor’s race, about a third of the officers attending the state convention of the Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) walked out on Attorney General Roy Cooper as he was attempting to justify his decision to prosecute Kerrick for shooting and killing Ferrell.
According to Randy Hagler, state president of the FOP, the Kerrick case was a significant factor in why the organization, with over 6,000 members statewide, voted to endorse North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory this year. (FOP endorsed Democrat Walter Dalton in 2012.)
“We don’t defend bad officers … we try to represent the officers who are on the line making split-second decisions, and that’s the heart and soul of this entire organization,” said one of the delegates to Cooper during the Q&A session.
Then, September 23, 2016. The killing of Keith Scott, another African American male, by a Charlotte police officer. A killing followed by rioting, looting, objects thrown at officers and a protester shot dead. A state of emergency. Police camera footage withheld from the public.
Black voters in Mecklenburg County are furious with Democratic Mayor Jennifer Roberts and the Democratic majority (9-2) Charlotte City Council over the way they managed the crisis. They expressed their fury Monday night at a chaotic city council meeting, calling for the resignation of Roberts and shouting such incendiary phrases as, “Hands down – Shoot back.”
If black voter turnout in Mecklenburg County is down substantially this fall due to anger with local and state Democratic officials, all Democrats running in competitive statewide races this fall, especially Democratic gubernatorial nominee Roy Cooper, will be in big trouble.
The most consequential political event last night for North Carolina may not have been the presidential debate at Hofstra University, it may have been the Charlotte City Council meeting, where the Democratic Mayor and the 9-2 Democratic majority council faced the furor of African American voters over the handling of the police shooting and killing of Keith Scott last Tuesday.
According to this morning’s Charlotte Observer, A furious crowd of citizens criticized and often shouted down Charlotte City Council on Monday night, calling for resignations across the city and chanting, “Hands Down! Shoot Back!” and “No Justice, No Peace!
Turnout of African-American voters in 2016 without President Obama on the ticket has been a concern among Democrats nationwide after polling discovered early on a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton among black voters. On September 18, 2016, President Obama told the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation gala dinner audience that he would be “personally insulted” if African American voters did not turn out and vote for Clinton.
A new Pew Research Center study of the partisan makeup of U.S. voters, released September 13, 2016, shows that both Democrats and Republicans are becoming less white, less religious and better educated. However, Democrats in America are becoming less white, less religious and better educated at a faster rate than the national average, while Republicans are becoming less white, less religious and better educated at a slower rate than the national average.
Democrats have gone from 76% non-Hispanic white voters to 57% since 1992
Republicans have gone from 93% non-Hispanic whites to 86% since 1992
Pews national study, based on 8,000 interviews, reveals that 48% of registered voters identify as Democrats or lean towards the Democratic Party, while 44% identify as Republican or lean Republican. The profile of partisan voters is now clear. Who will turn out to vote is uncertain.
Unaffiliated voters are now 29% of all registered voters in the state, with Democrats at 40% (2,665,330) and Republicans at 30% (2,023,603). There are 28,781 Libertarians.
According to the Civitas survey, 1-in-4 Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina switched from the Republican Party; an almost equal number (22%) switched from the Democratic Party.
But, the true balance of the partisan market share in our state is not in how voters are registered, it is in how they are likely to vote. If you adjust the voter registration totals by the political leanings of Unaffiliated voters, the state becomes perfectly balanced, as seen in Gallup’s State of the States study, at 41% Democratic and 41% Republican.
Time was, Republicans gained a political advantage in North Carolina by adding conservative Democrats. Now, only about 15% of Democrats are predictably Republican. Today, it is the Republican-leaning Unaffiliated voters who give GOP statewide candidates even odds.
Bottom line: North Carolina’s Unaffiliated voters will decide the winners of all 18 statewide races on November 8, 2016. The races are: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, N.C. Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Auditor, Commissioner of Agriculture, Commissioner of Insurance, Commissioner of Labor, Secretary of State, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Treasurer, Supreme Court Justice (Bob Edmunds’ seat), and 5 seats on the N.C. Court of Appeals.
On Monday morning, August 1, Gallup reported that more Americans have a “More Favorable” view of the Democratic Party (44%) after the convention than of the Republican Party (35%).
Trump’s speech rated “Excellent/Good” by 35%; “Poor/Terrible” by 36%
American adults participating in the survey said that they are “More Likely” (45%) than “Less Likely” (41%) to vote for Hillary Clinton after the conventions. The survey showed that Americans are “Less Likely” (51%) rather than “More Likely” (36%) to vote for Donald Trump.
Gallup has measured the national conventions for over three decades. The 2016 Republican convention is the first since 1984 that the percentage of Americans have said they are “less likely” rather than “more likely” to vote for a party’s presidential nominee as a result of what they saw or heard about the convention.
Today, August 1, 2016, the Real Clear Politics national average of all polls measuring the head-to-head race for the presidency shows Clinton with 44.9%; Trump with 42.7%. The latest North Carolina presidential average is very close to the national numbers, with Clinton at 44% and Trump at 42%.
IMPLICATIONS: Democrats did a far better job launching their nominee for president at the convention in Philadelphia than the GOP did at their convention in Cleveland. However, due to the hyper-volatility of the 2016 presidential election and the game-changing vulnerabilities of both nominees, the likely winner will be unpredictable until Election Day, November 8, 2016.
This morning’s release of U.S. Sen. Richard Burr’s midyear campaign-finance report reveals a $5 million Cash on Hand advantage over Democratic rival Deborah Ross.
The midyear campaign-finance report filed by Deborah Ross (D-Wake), shows a total of $3,977,866 raised, with $1,909,177 Cash on Hand. Burr, a Forsyth County Republican, reported $8,309,160 raised and $6,953,253 Cash on Hand.
To put Ross’ fundraising totals in perspective, former US Senator Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) had four times the total Cash on Hand ($8,729,330) at the midyear mark in 2014. But to be fair, that’s simply a reflection of the power of incumbency, the bane of all challengers.
In 2014, when all was said and done, former US Senator Kay Hagan had raised $22,520,800, and still lost to Thom Tillis (R-Mecklenburg), who raised $11,000,378.
In addition to Hagan’s $22.5 million raised, she benefited from another $7.3 million spent on positive ads on her behalf by outside groups, and another $31.6 million spent by outside groups attacking Republican challenger Thom Tillis.
Will outside groups spend tens of millions of dollars on Ross’ behalf in 2016?
U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, R-NC, got a big break on June 30, 2016, when Roll Call’s Senate Challenger Rankings did not include his Democratic opponent, Deborah Ross, in the Top 10 challengers running in U.S. Senate races. Ross’ weak Roll Call evaluation, based on fundraising, election history, the quality of the campaigns and the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, means she will struggle to raise money the remainder of the campaign.
Roll Call noted that Ross was “not the Democrats’ first choice,” and that her “tenure as head of the state American Civil Liberties Union is already coming back to haunt her.” Ross’ ACLU record was attacked by fellow Democrats in the primary, who argued that her opposition to a sex-offender registry and the Ten Commandments in public schools made her “unelectable.”
First Quarter reports filed with the FEC show Burr’s fundraising at $7.2 million; Ross at $1.9 million. New reports, due any day, will tell whether Burr is maintaining a funding advantage.
Implications: You can’t beat a powerful incumbent without money, and you can’t raise money if the consensus is you are not a strong challenger. Although Deborah Ross is not seen as a strong challenger, Democrats may well take back the Senate in 2016.
The 2016 race for governor is a referendum on Gov. McCrory’s first term. Under McCrory’s leadership, the unemployment rate has steadily improved in all 100 counties. Other advances:
$4.4 billion in tax relief (personal and corporate)
Paid off $2.5 billion unemployment insurance debt to the feds
$1 billion rainy day fund has been set aside (largest in history)
Maintained AAA bond rating (only 10 states have AAA rating)
Education budgets largest in history
Teacher salaries have increased more than any other state
Exports grew at twice the national average
Ranked as one of the most innovative states in the nation
High School graduation rates at an all-time high
$1.6 billion in highway construction projects on the drawing boards
Major tort, regulatory and energy reforms (permitting “fracking”)
Following the current session of the General Assembly, look for Governor McCrory to double-down on his list of accomplishments, adding politically critical claims like “the fastest growing teacher salaries in the nation.”
All Roy Cooper can do is promise to do a better job than Pat McCrory. Better than the Prosperity Cup? Better than the #1 GDP in America? Better than a $2 billion infrastructure bond? Better than the fastest growing teacher salaries in the nation?
Growing prosperity in North Carolina is the single most important reason why it is going to be very difficult for Roy Cooper to make the argument that there is a compelling reason to change the state’s chief executive.
John Kasich could unite the country. Gallup’s new study of presidential contenders has Kasich with a net favorable opinion among Americans of +19 points, the highest of any candidate. But the best indicator of Kasich’s potential to unite the country can be found in CBS News exit polls the day he won 86 of 88 counties in his 2014 campaign for reelection as Governor of Ohio.
Republican Governor John Kasich, in a state carried twice by President Obama, won the backing of 60% of female voters, 56% of 18-to-29-year-old voters, 26% of African-American voters, 25% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, 69% of Independents, and 53% of union households.
President Barack Obama intended to unite Blue State Democrats and Red State Republicans in an all-out assault on the nation’s problems. He didn’t. National unity was never as important as ideological pride.
President Kasich is the most likely to succeed where President Obama failed; the United States of America.
On Tuesday, March 15, 2016, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory seized the advantage in his race for a second term with an 82% Republican primary victory and a 2-to-1 win (66%-to-34%) for Connect NC, a $2 billion infrastructure bond.
McCrory’s primary rout erases any doubt about his solid support among Republicans. But even more important is the political value of the Connect NC bond win to his race in the General Election with Attorney General Roy Cooper, the Democratic Party nominee.
Voters in 76 of 100 counties will see the Connect NC bond money being spent locally. Investments include well-regarded institutions like the UNC System, the NC Community College System, state parks, National Guard, water/sewer projects, the state zoo and agriculture research.
As accomplished and capable as Roy Cooper is, the 2016 race for governor is a referendum on Gov. McCrory’s first term. Now, thanks to an improving economy, his leadership on the budget and Connect NC, he has plenty of feathers in his cap to impress persuadable voters.
However, since last August, I have grown to appreciate why American voters have given up on the Bush/Obama era of Republican and Democratic leaders in Washington. I understand why so many working class Americans have embraced a braggadocios foul-mouthed outsider like Trump.
Voters see clearly now that the federal government is rigged by both parties for the benefit of their most loyal political constituencies along with those who fund their campaigns.
Voters now know that congressional groups who wave the righteous banners of “rights,” “values,” and “principles” like the Democratic Congressional Black Caucus and the Republican Freedom Caucus are nothing more than partisan extremists who would sell the country down the river before they would buy each other a cup of coffee and work together to find compromise solutions to the nation’s problems.
The political realignment of 2016 transcends all traditional notions of reasonable behavior and tenants of electability. Those who have worked their way up the ladder of public elective leadership over time are now seen as part of the problem.
Hillary Clinton, the grande dame of American politics, finds herself out of place at the casting call for the lead role in the new drama about America’s future. She desperately clings to a sense of superior capability, yet younger voters only see an old general fighting the last war.
Jeb Bush, like Charles and Thomas Adams, sons and brothers of U.S. Presidents, John Adams (1797-1801) and John Quincy Adams (1825-1829), is the son and brother of presidents who yearns to be his own man but cannot escape the gravity of Bush administration baggage.
All presidential elections are about the future. Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton are mired in the past. They are the consummate establishment candidates during an antiestablishment election-year that sees most voters realigning behind authentic revolutionary leaders.
Why are voters demanding authentic revolutionary leaders in 2016? Because the most important problems facing the country in 2016 are the same problems the country faced in 2006.
Trump’s appeal reminds me of why President Lincoln liked General Grant.
Long before Ulysses Grant became the legendary Civil War general, he was a ne’er-do-well with a serious drinking problem. Failed in business. Failed at farming.
At the age of 32, while serving as a Captain in the army, Grant was given an ultimatum to resign or face a court-martial because of his chronic drunkenness on post. He resigned.
Then came the Civil War. Brigadier General Ulysses Grant was so successful in winning battles despite his problem with alcohol that President Lincoln is said to have proclaimed, “Find out what brand of whiskey Grant drinks and send a barrel of it to each one of my generals.”
That’s Donald Trump’s appeal. He may be arrogant and crude, but an ever-growing number of voters believe he will get the job done; solve the nation’s #1 problem: government. Further, Trump has built a global financial empire at a time Americans are looking for someone who can solve the #2 problem: the creation of jobs and wealth in the new world economic order.
The race for governor of North Carolina will not be about Roy Cooper and the Democratic agenda, it will be a referendum on Pat McCrory’s first term. The fact is, the state is well into recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression. And, economic recovery has provided McCrory the means to make many politically marketable improvements.
McCrory’s accomplishments to date are among the five influential factors that in my judgement give him a political marketing advantage at the starting gate of the 2016 race for governor. The five are: 1. Fundraising potential; 2. Record of accomplishment; 3. Visionary plan; 4. Personal likability; 5. Urban crossover appeal.
On Tuesday, November 10, 2015, beginning at 9 o’clock EST, while you are watching GOP presidential frontrunners Trump, Carson and Fiorina during the Fox Business/Wall Street Journal debate from Milwaukee, remember this fact: only two presidents in United States history won with either no prior experience in public office or high military rank … like Trump, Carson and Fiorina.
The last president with no previous elected-office experience was President Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1961). However, he was a five-star general in the U.S. Army who served as Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in Europe during World War II. Eisenhower led the Normandy Invasion and the coalition that defeated Hitler. He was a qualified executive.
Ten days ago, October 13, 2015, the John Davis Political Report, Clinton Email Controversy Now Fruit of a Poisonous Tree after Republicans Seen Rigging Hearings, stated that Hillary Clinton would win the argument on the Benghazi email controversy during the Democratic presidential debate that evening because most voters believed “U.S. House Republicans rigged the Benghazi hearings to weaken Clinton’s campaign for president.”
Sure enough, when the poll results started coming, a large majority of Democrats agreed that Clinton had won on that and every other issue in the CNN/Facebook-sponsored Democratic presidential debate. For example, CNN’s national survey of registered Democrats who watched the Democratic debate revealed that 62% of the respondents believed Hillary Clinton won the debate; 35% said Bernie Sanders.
The perception that the Benghazi committee was a partisan political assault force was solidified on September 29, 2015, when Republican House Majority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy told Fox News host Sean Hannity, “Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping.” A foolish statement.
Tonight, during the first Democratic presidential debate beginning at 8:30 EST on CNN, what would have been a politically explosive issue regarding the use of a private email server by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be defused by the perception that U.S. House Republicans rigged the Benghazi hearings to weaken Clinton’s campaign for president.
In politics, perceptions are the only reality.
Tonight, during the debate sponsored by CNN and Facebook, Clinton will win the argument on the email controversy, saying she has taken responsibility for her decision to use a personal account, that the use of a private email account was allowed under State Department rules, that nothing she sent or received was marked classified, and that she provided all of her work-related emails to the State Department.
She will win because the Republican-led Special Committee on Benghazi obtained the email controversy under false pretense. The fruit of a poisonous tree.
Republican zealots in Washington D.C. are paving the way for Democrats to hold the White House in 2016 and retake the U.S. Senate by making the same mistake the Democratic zealots made after they were given control of the legislative branch in 2009. Namely, insisting that partisan priorities, like abortion, gay rights and immigration, are more important than the priorities of most voters: personal income and a federal government rigged in favor of the wealthy.
Evidence of the declining value of GOP stock at the federal level can be seen in the just-released (September 24, 2015) NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey:
29% of Americans have a “Favorable” view of GOP; 45% unfavorable (-16 pts)
42% of Americans have a “Favorable” view of the Democratic Party, significantly higher than the 35% “Unfavorable” (+7 pts)
Important note:The NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey was conducted by both Peter Hart, a respected Democratic pollster, and Bill McInturff, a respected Republican pollster.
Gallup’s new annual Governance poll, conducted September 9-13, shows that 8-in-10 Americans believe that the GOP-led Congress is “generally out of touch with average Americans.”
The United States needs a President who is experienced in both the creation of private wealth and the distribution of public wealth through government. One who is temperamentally suited for principled compromise as the best hope of solving the two most important problems of the day, according to Gallup, not enough income and too much government.
The nation does not need a belittler-in-chief, nor does it need a soft-spoken neurosurgeon with an inspiring personal story but lacking in experience in important problems of the day.
The nation does not need a leader elected just because of their race, ethnicity or gender. It does not need a leader who thinks that sticking to your beliefs even if it means shutting down the government is more important than principled compromise.
The United States needs a wise government leader. One who knows that private sector prosperity is the financial wherewithal for public sector progress. Nothing grows out of an estrangement and distrust between business and the White House but hundreds of billions of dollars in un-invested surplus private funds, stagnant wages and an $18 trillion sovereign debt.
The nation does not need a leader from a political dynasty. There are simply too many incestuous relationships with family insiders who aided and abetted in the creation of today’s major problems. Income. Government. Insiders with failed ideas and self-serving agendas.
Sobering state and national problems like those listed will, in time, undermine polarizing candidates with trumped-up political credibility. Likewise, sobering state and national problems will undermine the candidacies of polarizing partisan and ideological purists.
Ironically, today’s political leaders have not made sufficient progress towards solving state and federal problems because they are polarized by partisan and ideological purists who value principle over compromise solutions to problems. The hard-right/hard-left Donald Trump/Bernie Sanders ideologues are outraged over the results of the very problem they created: polarization.
Is Donald Trump’s priority to make America great, or is it to make Donald Trump great? Is Trump in the race to promote Trump Entertainment? Consider Trumps own words, again from the August 14, 2015 story in Politico magazine by Michael Kruse:
“It’s very possible that I could be the first presidential candidate to run and make money on it.” (Fortune, April 3, 2000)
Political outrage with government will drive the politics of 2016 at all levels.
Outraged voters do outrageous things. Ergo, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have zero chance of becoming President of the United States. Everyone knows that. They are merely the pre-game entertainment.
Trump is like the streaker during pre-game warmups at the Super Bowl, egged on by his buddies to do what they would not dare do. Run naked out onto the field on national TV. Outraged conservatives have egged Trump on to say what they would not dare say.
Trump is only in the race to promote Trump Entertainment. He has received hundreds of millions of dollars in free advertising world-wide benefiting his casinos and resorts. Trump boasted at the Fox GOP Debate last week about exploiting bankruptcy laws for business gain. In time, he will brag about using presidential politics for business gain.
As a promoter, like P.T. Barnum, Donald Trump is brilliant. However, he has 0% chance of being president, and he knows it. Which is fine by him. That’s not why he is running.
What was former five-term (2001-2011) Democratic Mayor of Raleigh Charles Meeker thinking when he announced last week that he was going to challenge four-term Republican Commissioner of Labor Cherie Berry in her race for a fifth term in 2016?
Doesn’t Meeker know that the five women on the North Carolina Council of State have a win/loss record of 18 and 0? Doesn’t he know that all 16 men who dared to challenge them since 1996 have been defeated?
Sixteen men. Vanquished, one and all. A NASCAR legend, a state senator, the incumbent State Auditor, prominent attorneys, wealthy businessmen, school board chairs, and a former speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives.
Not only have the five women on North Carolina’s Council of State never lost a Council of State race, they are all historic state leaders as significant as any founding father.
My sense is that Millennials just may be the deciding factor in the race for the White House as well as statewide races here and around the country. My reasoning is based on the likelihood that Millennials will be the largest group of undecided voters in 2016.
Their value as the largest group of persuadable voters is enriched by the fact that most voters in the older generations are predictably clustered in ideologically recalcitrant and partisan camps; neither of which is large enough to dominate North Carolina or national elections.
Democrats, in order to secure the lion’s share of younger voters in races against Republicans, must move their identity closer to the center on economic policy. Millennials are more cost-conscious because they came of age politically during a time of less discretionary income due to the recession and employment challenges.
Republicans, in order to secure the lion share of younger voters in races against Democrats, must move their identity closer to the center on social policy. As noted earlier, Millennials are twice as liberal and half as conservative as their parents and grandparents on social issues. Older generations tolerate social differences. Millennials celebrate social differences.
The bottom line: Independent, socially-left-of-center, economically-right-of-center Millennials will be the largest group of undecided voters and therefore the most valuable voters in 2016. How large? Large enough to have a decisive impact on the outcome of statewide races here in North Carolina; large enough to determine who wins the presidency.
I have struggled with Baltimore. Not with the rioting. I get the anger. If you don’t care about me, why should I care about you? My struggle is with how leaders take advantage of the new opportunity Baltimore gives to pitch conservative solutions to inner-city problems.
What makes Baltimore unique is that for the first time in the history of racially charged rioting in America, most local authorities are African-American Democrats. And, three of the six cops facing charges in the death of Freddie Gray, the incident that sparked the riots, are black.
The unintended paradox laid bare by the Baltimore riots in April is that African-American liberal Democrats find themselves in the unavoidable position of having to share responsibility for the circumstances and actions of inner-city black kids.
Baltimore has exposed the uncomfortable truth that liberal programs run by African-American Democrats have left too many inner-city kids behind, unheard, drowning in a sea of desperation.
I get the anger. If you don’t care about me, why should I care about you?
But racial solidarity is only one-third of the minority voter turnout story.
Another third is the fact that Republicans did not offer a conservative alternative in an effective, minority-targeted way. What was the compelling argument made by Republicans in the General Election of 2012 as to why African-Americans and other minorities should entrust GOP leaders with their concerns?
How much robust effort did Republicans make in the fall of 2012 to persuade minority voters that the conservative political agenda was in their best interest? Did they invest adequately in a well-researched and target-tested ad campaign with maximum saturation in minority markets throughout the country?
How much money did Republicans spend in the 2012 General Election on any minority market group? The Obama campaign spent $100 million on data analytics to improve their ability to communicate compelling messages to targeted potential voters like African-Americans. That’s why African-American turnout was higher in 2012 than in 2008.
That’s the third part of the minority turnout story. President Obama did not rely on racial solidarity to attain historic turnout among African-Americans in Ohio in the fall of 2012. Racial solidarity is not why African American turnout went from 11% in 2008 to 15% in Ohio in 2012.
Hillary Clinton, the presumptive presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, faces the challenge of turning out African American voters in numbers equal to the historic turnout in 2008 that led to Barack Obama carrying North Carolina by a mere 14,171 votes out of 4.3 million cast. The only time that African-American voters turned out in higher percentages than non-Hispanic white American voters was when Barack Obama was on the ballot.
The Republican nominee for president, as well as those for statewide offices in swing states like North Carolina, face the challenge of persuading minority voters to embrace conservative alternatives to liberal public policy, and the challenge of persuading minority voters to trust them at a time in American history when minorities have every reason not to trust Republicans.
Minority voters are key to winning the White House and statewide offices in swing states like North Carolina in 2016. The biggest difference I see with regards to minority voters in 2016 is that both Democrats and Republicans face an equally difficult challenge.
During the next couple of days, I will be writing a series of reports about minority voters and the challenges faced by both parties to rebrand themselves for a 21st century American electorate.
One is a recalcitrant, liberal extremist loner. One a recalcitrant, conservative extremist loner.
In other words, Cruz is Obama-Right. Which is why he is not likely to be president.
American voters are tired of extremism and partisan recalcitrance. Tired of loner politicians with a gift for oratory that fades into uselessness because their words are not accompanied by a gift for collaborative leadership.
Uncompromising, my-way-or-the-highway leaders like Barack Obama and Ted Cruz are likely to be out of vogue during an era when Americans are demanding those who are compelled to get things done, even if it means compromising with the other party, rather than those who are compelled to stick to their beliefs even if nothing gets done.
What Republicans wanted most was successes; legislative successes. Here in North Carolina, conservative legislative successes began to pile up. Legislative and congressional districts were remapped to the GOP’s advantage while election laws were changed to the Democrats’ disadvantage. No more straight ticket voting. No more public financing. Fewer days for early voting. Voter IDs.
Now, in 2015, Republicans in the General Assembly are adding to their list of election law reforms at the expense of Democrats with legislation that will change the way cities like Greensboro and counties like Wake elect their city council members and county commissioners.
Conservatives have seen legislative accomplishments in the last four years that they could only but dream of before the Tea Party revolution of 2010. Fracking. Firearms. Medicaid. Charter schools. Regulations. Taxes. Abortion. Teachers union. Consolidation. Reorganization. Environmental laws.
But too much good news is bad news for revolutionaries. Good economic news and a growing list of Republican legislative successes means a greater likelihood that the GOP will be united in 2016.
A united GOP is even worse news for North Carolina Democrats.
On Saturday, February 7, 2015, the State Executive Committee of the North Carolina Democratic Party will meet in Pittsboro. Their challenge is to decide how to restructure, reorganize and create a new vision needed to recover their political standing in North Carolina. There is no decision more critical to that end than the selection of a State Party Chair who can raise money.
A political party without money is one that cannot get its message out; cannot mobilize its base voters. More importantly, a political party without money is one that lacks the resources to restructure, reorganize and create a new vision for the political challenges of the 21st Century.
The challenges facing North Carolina Democrats are too great for ideological bickering. Just since 2010, Democrats have lost majorities in both chambers of the legislature, lost the Governor’s office, lost both U.S. Senate seats, and failed to carry the state for Obama in 2012.
They are not alone. Throughout the South, Democrats are facing the same long and arduous trek back to the state halls of political power.
When the second highest ranking Democrat in the U.S. Senate says, “We blew it,” I sit up and take notice. Such was the case on November 25, 2014, when U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, said, “Unfortunately, Democrats blew the opportunity the American people gave them in electing Obama and the Democratic Congress in 2008 amid a recession. We took their mandate and put all our focus on the wrong problem — healthcare reform.”
For emphasis: “We took their mandate and put all our focus on the wrong problem.”
The greatest threat to Republican political potential in 2016, both in Raleigh and Washington DC, is a misinterpretation by congressional and legislative majorities of the 2014 voter mandate.
Thank you so much for reading my report this year! There is no greater reward for a political writer than to be read by a balance of influential readers from all persuasions.
My goal has always been to provide a reliable analysis of political trends along with accurate forecasts of likely winners. In order to achieve that goal, I cannot be an advocate. If I were an advocate, my forecasts would be wrong half the time.
There are many sources of politically biased reporting, especially among advocacy news organizations. I urge you to read or listen to all of them. Biased perspectives on the status of campaigns are very helpful in sizing up competing arguments on who is likely to prevail in a race.
But if you do not have time to read or listen to all competing sources of political insight, please know that that is what I do every day throughout the year.
I had a secret forecasting advantage on January 10, 2014, when I titled the secondJohn Davis Political Report of the year, Vol. VII, No. 2, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan.
I also used that secret advantage on January 3, 2014, when I wrote the following in the firstJohn Davis Political Report of the year, Vol. VII, No. 1, North Carolina’s 2014 Political Preview:
Imagine waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC. If you are a member of the GOP, or if you prefer conservative solutions to problems, nothing could be finer. If you are a Democrat … ummmm, need I say more?
It happened.
A year of interviewing the most influential members of the Republican and Democratic parties in North Carolina during 2013 had given me a unique advantage in forecasting the likely winner in the Hagan-Tillis race in 2014.
I had secret measurements. Ten for Hagan. Ten for Tillis.
Bottom Line: Big night for Republicans in the state and nation, with the driving force in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race being the fact that more voters were concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than were concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.
North Carolina Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis defeated North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan by 48,501 votes out of a midterm election record turnout of 2,891,363 voters. He will serve in a solid 53-seat Republican majority in the U.S Senate, likely headed by Mitch McConnell, the current Senate Minority Leader.
Tillis won despite $35,569,285 spent by outside groups on attack ads against him, the most spent against any U.S. Senate candidate in the country in the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country, with $111 million accounted for as of Election Day.
Hagan raised $22,945,496 to Tillis’ $9,055,347.
North Carolina’s 13-member delegation to the US House of Representatives will have 10 Republicans and three Democrats. All incumbents won easily, as did newcomers Alma Adams, a Democrat in Democrat Mel Watt’s seat, and David Rouzer, a Republican in Democrat Mike McIntyre’s seat (the one-seat pick up for the GOP). US House 250 Republicans; 185 Democrats.
North Carolina’s 50-member Senate will have a 34-member Republican super majority, a gain of one, with Democrat Gene McLaurin losing to challenger Tom McInnis. All incumbent Senate Republicans won reelection, and all Open GOP seats were won by Republicans. There will be a 16-member Democratic minority in the state Senate.
North Carolina’s 120-member House will have 74 Republicans and 46 Democrats. Both chambers maintained their Republican super majorities.
North Carolina’s 7-member Supreme Court will be led by Chief Justice Mark Martin, a Republican, who will preside over a 4-3 Republican majority. Sam Ervin, a Democrat, defeated Republican Bob Hunter. Justices Robin Hudson and Cheri Beasley, both Democrats, fended off strong Republican challenges.
North Carolina’s 15-member Court of Appeals will have a Republican majority thanks to former Judge John Tyson’s victory in the 19-candidate race for Democrat Chief Judge John Martin’s seat. Lucy Inman, a Democrat, is the other newcomer to the court (Democrat Bob Hunter is retiring). Judge Mark Davis, a Democrat, won another term handily. Republican Judge Donna Stroud ran unopposed.
Tillis Tops List as Most Attacked U.S. Senate Candidate: Recent national news stories have reported that North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic U.S. Senator Kay Hagan and Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House Thom Tillis is likely to top the list of the most expensive U.S. Senate races in 2014, with spending in excess of $100 million.
Two-thirds of that $100 million is being spent by national independent groups, with 80% going to negative attack ads. A Washington Post analysis of who is “bearing the brunt of all of that negativity” shows that no candidate in America has had more money spent against them on negative ads than Thom Tillis in North Carolina.
A whopping $32 million has been spent on negative attack ads alone against Tillis.
Unfortunately for Hagan and North Carolina Democrats, the negative barrage of TV ads against Tillis has had two unintended consequences: Hagan’s five-point lead is down to zero; Hagan’s job disapproval is up five points.
Women and Blacks Down on Democratic Party: According to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted October 9-12, 2014, the Democratic Party has the worst Favorable (39%) to Unfavorable (51%) impression among Americans since 1984. What is most surprising, is that the downward spiral is driven by the disaffection of women and Black voters.
Among African-Americans, the positive image of the Democratic Party has declined by 17 points (82% to 65%) since August
Among women, the positive image of the Democratic Party has declined by 13 points (from 54% to 41%) since August
Democrats were already struggling against midterm election year odds of low turnout among their most loyal constituencies. Now, a dramatic disaffection of their most loyal constituencies.
Republicans on Track to Neutralize the Democrats’ Ground Game
If there is a game changer in the 2014 general election it is likely to be a superior GOP ground game that neutralizes the digital voter communications and turnout advantage Democrats established in 2008 and 2012. That potential is the result of an early commitment by the RNC to an in-house tech incubator called Para Bellum Labs, complete with 50 geeks and the best hardware and software money can buy, along with the allied support of organizations like Americans for Prosperity, who have committed tens of millions of dollars just to a ground game in 2014.
Of course, the Democrats are not ignoring the opportunity in 2014 to keep their digital advantage. They are operating under an umbrella called Project Ivy, scaling the highly successful Obama data-mining, contact and turnout operation to campaigns like North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race. And, there are many allied groups from unions to Planned Parenthood spending tens of millions of dollars to turn out African-Americans, single women and young voters.
Never doubt the ability of Democrats to turn out their voters in 2014.
Never doubt the ability of Republicans to match or surpass the Democrats’ turnout in 2014.
On Monday, September 22, 2014, the latest statewide poll of likely voters, released by High Point University, showed the race where it was in January, virtually tied with Hagan at 42% and Tillis at 40% (6% for Libertarian Sean Haugh; 12% Undecided or won’t say).
Key Question: So why is Kay Hagan struggling to seize a commanding lead in the race with Tillis despite a year-long fundraising and spending advantage? Because by an overwhelming margin, likely North Carolina voters disapprove of the job she and President Obama are doing.
President Barack Obama’s Job Approval is 38%; Disapprove 57%
Senator Kay Hagan’s Job Approval is 39%; Disapprove 50%
Historically, midterm elections are a referendum on the White House. With North Carolina voters having such low regard for the White House, ads saying “Hagan votes with the President 95% of the time” are keeping her disapproval numbers high and her potential for victory low.
Ultimately, this race will end in a tie with turnout operations determining the winner.
Nothing chills political fundraising more than the intimidating word from the majority party leadership that anyone who supports a certain candidate can forget the majority party’s support when they need help with their legislation.
You can rest assured that Democrat U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has put the word out to the political investor crowd that anyone backing North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis against North Carolina Democrat Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race can forget his support.
However, with most of the major national pundits saying that the next U.S. Senate Majority Leader is more likely to be a Republican, Sen. Harry Reid’s intimidation is greatly weakened.
Further, you can count on likely Republican U.S. Senate leaders to put the word out that in 2015, the GOP majority leadership will remember only those who supported Thom Tillis in 2014.
All political pollsters agree that the response of voters to the question, “If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democrat for Congress?” … also known as the Generic Congressional Ballot question … is one of the best predictors of which party has an advantage during any given election year.
According to the new bipartisan-led national George Washington University Battleground Poll, the GOP has a 4-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot at the fall 2014 starting gate.
GOP has a 16-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot in the states where there is a competitive U.S. Senate race (like North Carolina)
Independent voters are trending GOP 41% to 26% Democratic; 33% undecided
Republicans lead among Middle-Class voters by 11 points
GOP has a 12-point lead among those “extremely likely to vote” (51% to 39%)
69% of Republicans are “extremely likely to vote;” 57% of Democrats
There has been a dramatic loss of political momentum among North Carolina Democrats since 2008, the election year when historic voter registration and turnout accomplishments led to Greensboro Democrat Kay Hagan’s win over Elizabeth Dole for a seat in the U.S. Senate.
From January 1, 2008 through August 30, 2008, North Carolina Democrats registered a net gain of 171,955 new voters. This year, from January 1, 2014 through August 23, 2014, Democrats have suffered a net loss of 4,122 voters.
In 2008, Democrats had all of the power in North Carolina; the Governor, the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President Pro Tem of the Senate. Today, all of those positions are filled by Republicans. Today, the North Carolina Democratic Party has been abandoned by most of its financial backers from the past. Party leaders are in disarray, struggling to regain their footing.
There is so little respect for the North Carolina Democratic Party that the Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee has managed the $1,631,025 statewide turnout operation, with most of the money from the national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Kay Hagan’s political fortunes are certain to be impacted negatively by the loss of standing and resources of the North Carolina Democratic Party. The loss of momentum and enthusiasm this year when compared to 2008 is undeniably devastating.
Unless they can regain their 2008 momentum, Thom Tillis will defeat Kay Hagan this fall.
The best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1. They are clearly on that track, and it’s all being run out of the Wake County Democratic Party.
Since March 2014, the Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee has received $1,631,025, and has spent $1,563,534, almost all on “Office Rent” at 24 county headquarters around the state and “Salary” expenses for over 100 employees.
A new NPR (National Public Radio) poll released June 19, 2014, shows Pres. Obama’s Job Approval at only 38% among likely voters in the 12 states with competitive Senate races (which includes North Carolina). Perhaps more indicative of who is likely to have a political advantage this Fall are the survey responses by Independent voters that relate to whom voters trust by issue:
On the Economy, 48% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 28% trust Democrats
On Healthcare, 44% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 35% trust Democrats
On the Future of the Middle Class, Independent voters give both parties 38%
On Foreign Policy, 52% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 26% trust Democrats
The poll was conducted by a bipartisan team that included Democrat Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps and Republican Whit Ayers of Resurgent Republic.
If President Obama’s job approval remains in the low to mid 40s this Fall, he will be a drag on all Democrats running for the U.S. Senate, including Kay Hagan.
A growing list of scandals, as well as ongoing domestic and foreign policy challenges, suggest that Obama’s Job Approval will not likely recover enough by Oct/Nov for him to be a positive force for Democrats.
The national Tea Party groups like Americans for Prosperity, Tea Party Nation and Freedom Works cannot claim victory in the downfall of Eric Cantor because they did not spend one penny backing his opponent, David Brat, a Randolph-Macon College economics professor.
Brat spent only $122,000 on ads arguing that Cantor had become liberal because of his support for a pathway to citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants and because of his votes for budget deals. You don’t win on the issues with ads when you are outspent 26-to-1.
The Tea Party didn’t win this election. Eric Cantor lost the election.
This was not an anti-establishment anti-incumbent vote. Only one incumbent member of the U.S. House has lost this year: Ralph Hall, the oldest member of Congress at 91-years old.
This was an anti-Eric Cantor vote. An anti-Eric Cantor’s staff vote.
Oh, and he also lost because thought that he could win in 2014 like he always had; that he didn’t need to do anything different in 2014. That he could fight the last war.
Per AP Thurs, May 29, 2014: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has begun reserving “almost $44 million in advertising time” with television stations in 39 fall races.
North Carolina Implications: No North Carolina Congressional race is on the list of the 39 targets. That’s because there are no opportunities for Democrats to pick up a seat in North Carolina in 2014. Following the November elections, North Carolina will have 10 Republicans and 3 Democrats in the delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Per AP: “In all, the campaign committee plans to spend money in 19 districts to defend incumbent Democrats, mostly newcomers, and in 17 districts that are in Republican hands.”
Per AP: “That’s [$44 million] the largest ever from the committee and the biggest so far this election year from a party-run campaign committee.” By booking the time early, the DCCC locks in a lower price and a “discount of up to 35 percent.”
To date, no non-partisan observer has argued that Democrats can net 18 wins in 2014, the number needed to take the US House majority from Republicans (who have 233 seats to 199 seats held by Democrats). There are three vacancies.
Here are the 39 targeted races with cities highlighted:
North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson, one of the three Democrats on the “non-partisan” seven-member court, is likely to win her race this fall against Republican Eric Levinson, a Mecklenburg Superior Court judge, thereby earning a third term on the state’s highest court, all thanks to an ill-conceived primary TV ad accusing her of being soft on child molesters.
The Republican ad was ill-conceived for two reasons. One, voters who participate in midterm primary elections are older and wiser; wise to the wily ways of political TV ad consultants. For emphasis: They are the least likely voters to be duped. Two, the allegation that Justice Hudson is soft on child molesters is so far outside the boundaries of believability that it backfired.
On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC.”
That “possibility” is now a probability. The difference? GOP unity and enthusiasm during a midterm election year when the party in the White House always loses most of the close races.
North Carolina Democrats really need social and economic Republican hardliners to divide and weaken the GOP in 2014. That’s because they, the Democrats, lack the wherewithal to win against a united Republican Party. Unfortunately, Republicans are not cooperating.
So why aren’t Republicans likely to divide and conquer each other in 2014? Because the social and economic hardliners are out of favor. The government shutdown in October 2013 was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Republicans have now turned their attention away from ideological purity to winning legislative majorities, the U.S. House, and seizing the U.S. Senate.
If I had to choose only one bit of information for forecasting partisan fortunes in 2014, like the winner in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, it would be the answer to the question: Is the new GOP Honeybadger just another Republican Orca, or is it a Democratic Narwhal?
Narwhal? Orca? Honeybadger?
Project Narwhal is Democratic President Obama’s 2012 $100 million “get out the vote” digital data-mining, voter contact and turnout tracking operation. Project Narwhal drove up the turnout of the most unlikely voters in 2012, like African Americans in Ohio and young people everywhere, giving Obama another four years in the White House.
Orca? Orca is Republican Mitt Romney’s 2012 “get out the vote” app that was supposed to neutralize Obama’s Project Narwhal. Instead, Orca crashed. It turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. Never beta tested! In Boston, on Election Day, a Romney campaign aide told the Washington Times, “Somebody said Orca is lying on the beach with a harpoon in it.”
New Jersey and Virginia Signal Good Year for Incumbents
Virginia and New Jersey were the only two states in 2013 with gubernatorial and legislative elections. The political trends in those two states are almost always reliable predictors for North Carolina a year later. Read the predictive trends from those states for North Carolina in 2014.
Congressional and Legislative Races Will Not be Close
Read the big-picture forecasts for North Carolina in 2014 based on trends from 2013 and early indicators of likely advantages, like incumbency, fundraising and non-presidential election year turnout.
Tillis Likely GOP U.S. Senate Nominee with No Runoff
As to statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia, the overarching trend was the demand for leaders who placed a higher premium on getting things done over those who thought sticking to their beliefs was more important even if nothing gets done. In North Carolina’s U.S. Senate GOP primary race, that trend favors the election of Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, outright on May 6.
The safest place in America for Democrats is the District of Columbia, where 72% of the adults are Democratic/Lean Democratic and 14.3% are Republican/Lean Republican. The next best place in America for Democrats is New York, followed on the Top 10 Most Democratic states by Hawaii, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, California, Illinois and Delaware.
The safest place in America for Republicans is Wyoming, where 60.1% of adults are Republican/Lean Republican and only 20% are Democratic/Lean Democratic. Joining Wyoming among the Top 10 Most Republican states are Utah, North Dakota, Idaho, Kansas, Alaska, South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana and Oklahoma.
Where is North Carolina ranked on the list of state party leanings?
North Carolina is right square in the middle of Gallup’s list of state party leanings
41.3% of North Carolina adults are Democratic/Lean Democratic; 41.9% are Republican/Lean Republican
North Carolina is nestled in the middle of the list between Wisconsin and Ohio on the Democratic side; Arizona and Virginia on the Republican side
North Carolina is closer in partisan identity to Minnesota, Maine and Oregon than Tennessee, South Carolina and Alabama
Now you know why it’s so expensive to run for political office in North Carolina. Neither party has a partisan advantage.
If you take a look at the midterm elections during the second term of the last two presidents you will discover that they were not very favorable for North Carolina Republicans. Those two election years, 1998 and 2006, were years in which the GOP learned the hard way that you can’t win just by exploiting the misfortunes of Democrats. That strategic misjudgment could easily by repeated in 2014 if the GOP spends the year attacking Democrats on ObamaCare.
In 1998, the second term midterm elections of sex scandal-plagued Democratic President Bill Clinton, the state GOP suffered the loss of the majority in the North Carolina House of Representatives and lost Lauch Faircloth’s U.S. Senate seat to upstart John Edwards. At the federal level, Democrats actually gained five U.S. House seats and did not lose any Senate seats.
In 2006, Republicans lost the majority in the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, the majority of the governors and the majority of state legislatures in great part due to a scandal-plagued Republican Congress that broke all records for pork barrel spending.
Here in North Carolina, Republicans lost six-term U.S. Congressman Charles Taylor from Transylvania County, contributing to the Democratic takeover of the U.S. House.
At the state level, Republicans lost three out of four North Carolina Supreme Court races in 2006 (Democrats Sarah Parker, Patricia Timmons-Goodson and Robin Hudson won), and lost ground in both the state House and Senate despite the year-long scandal involving Speaker Black.
Important: Congressional Republicans humored the middle with liberal spending but lost their base voter. If you win the middle voters, but lose your base voter, you lose the war.
Political outrage with government will drive the politics of 2016 at all levels.
Outraged voters do outrageous things. Ergo, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have zero chance of becoming President of the United States. Everyone knows that. They are merely the pre-game entertainment.
Trump is like the streaker during pre-game warmups at the Super Bowl, egged on by his buddies to do what they would not dare do. Run naked out onto the field on national TV. Outraged conservatives have egged Trump on to say what they would not dare say.
Trump is only in the race to promote Trump Entertainment. He has received hundreds of millions of dollars in free advertising world-wide benefiting his casinos and resorts. Trump boasted at the Fox GOP Debate last week about exploiting bankruptcy laws for business gain. In time, he will brag about using presidential politics for business gain.
As a promoter, like P.T. Barnum, Donald Trump is brilliant. However, he has 0% chance of being president, and he knows it. Which is fine by him. That’s not why he is running.
What was former five-term (2001-2011) Democratic Mayor of Raleigh Charles Meeker thinking when he announced last week that he was going to challenge four-term Republican Commissioner of Labor Cherie Berry in her race for a fifth term in 2016?
Doesn’t Meeker know that the five women on the North Carolina Council of State have a win/loss record of 18 and 0? Doesn’t he know that all 16 men who dared to challenge them since 1996 have been defeated?
Sixteen men. Vanquished, one and all. A NASCAR legend, a state senator, the incumbent State Auditor, prominent attorneys, wealthy businessmen, school board chairs, and a former speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives.
Not only have the five women on North Carolina’s Council of State never lost a Council of State race, they are all historic state leaders as significant as any founding father.
My sense is that Millennials just may be the deciding factor in the race for the White House as well as statewide races here and around the country. My reasoning is based on the likelihood that Millennials will be the largest group of undecided voters in 2016.
Their value as the largest group of persuadable voters is enriched by the fact that most voters in the older generations are predictably clustered in ideologically recalcitrant and partisan camps; neither of which is large enough to dominate North Carolina or national elections.
Democrats, in order to secure the lion’s share of younger voters in races against Republicans, must move their identity closer to the center on economic policy. Millennials are more cost-conscious because they came of age politically during a time of less discretionary income due to the recession and employment challenges.
Republicans, in order to secure the lion share of younger voters in races against Democrats, must move their identity closer to the center on social policy. As noted earlier, Millennials are twice as liberal and half as conservative as their parents and grandparents on social issues. Older generations tolerate social differences. Millennials celebrate social differences.
The bottom line: Independent, socially-left-of-center, economically-right-of-center Millennials will be the largest group of undecided voters and therefore the most valuable voters in 2016. How large? Large enough to have a decisive impact on the outcome of statewide races here in North Carolina; large enough to determine who wins the presidency.
I have struggled with Baltimore. Not with the rioting. I get the anger. If you don’t care about me, why should I care about you? My struggle is with how leaders take advantage of the new opportunity Baltimore gives to pitch conservative solutions to inner-city problems.
What makes Baltimore unique is that for the first time in the history of racially charged rioting in America, most local authorities are African-American Democrats. And, three of the six cops facing charges in the death of Freddie Gray, the incident that sparked the riots, are black.
The unintended paradox laid bare by the Baltimore riots in April is that African-American liberal Democrats find themselves in the unavoidable position of having to share responsibility for the circumstances and actions of inner-city black kids.
Baltimore has exposed the uncomfortable truth that liberal programs run by African-American Democrats have left too many inner-city kids behind, unheard, drowning in a sea of desperation.
I get the anger. If you don’t care about me, why should I care about you?
But racial solidarity is only one-third of the minority voter turnout story.
Another third is the fact that Republicans did not offer a conservative alternative in an effective, minority-targeted way. What was the compelling argument made by Republicans in the General Election of 2012 as to why African-Americans and other minorities should entrust GOP leaders with their concerns?
How much robust effort did Republicans make in the fall of 2012 to persuade minority voters that the conservative political agenda was in their best interest? Did they invest adequately in a well-researched and target-tested ad campaign with maximum saturation in minority markets throughout the country?
How much money did Republicans spend in the 2012 General Election on any minority market group? The Obama campaign spent $100 million on data analytics to improve their ability to communicate compelling messages to targeted potential voters like African-Americans. That’s why African-American turnout was higher in 2012 than in 2008.
That’s the third part of the minority turnout story. President Obama did not rely on racial solidarity to attain historic turnout among African-Americans in Ohio in the fall of 2012. Racial solidarity is not why African American turnout went from 11% in 2008 to 15% in Ohio in 2012.
Hillary Clinton, the presumptive presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, faces the challenge of turning out African American voters in numbers equal to the historic turnout in 2008 that led to Barack Obama carrying North Carolina by a mere 14,171 votes out of 4.3 million cast. The only time that African-American voters turned out in higher percentages than non-Hispanic white American voters was when Barack Obama was on the ballot.
The Republican nominee for president, as well as those for statewide offices in swing states like North Carolina, face the challenge of persuading minority voters to embrace conservative alternatives to liberal public policy, and the challenge of persuading minority voters to trust them at a time in American history when minorities have every reason not to trust Republicans.
Minority voters are key to winning the White House and statewide offices in swing states like North Carolina in 2016. The biggest difference I see with regards to minority voters in 2016 is that both Democrats and Republicans face an equally difficult challenge.
During the next couple of days, I will be writing a series of reports about minority voters and the challenges faced by both parties to rebrand themselves for a 21st century American electorate.
One is a recalcitrant, liberal extremist loner. One a recalcitrant, conservative extremist loner.
In other words, Cruz is Obama-Right. Which is why he is not likely to be president.
American voters are tired of extremism and partisan recalcitrance. Tired of loner politicians with a gift for oratory that fades into uselessness because their words are not accompanied by a gift for collaborative leadership.
Uncompromising, my-way-or-the-highway leaders like Barack Obama and Ted Cruz are likely to be out of vogue during an era when Americans are demanding those who are compelled to get things done, even if it means compromising with the other party, rather than those who are compelled to stick to their beliefs even if nothing gets done.
What Republicans wanted most was successes; legislative successes. Here in North Carolina, conservative legislative successes began to pile up. Legislative and congressional districts were remapped to the GOP’s advantage while election laws were changed to the Democrats’ disadvantage. No more straight ticket voting. No more public financing. Fewer days for early voting. Voter IDs.
Now, in 2015, Republicans in the General Assembly are adding to their list of election law reforms at the expense of Democrats with legislation that will change the way cities like Greensboro and counties like Wake elect their city council members and county commissioners.
Conservatives have seen legislative accomplishments in the last four years that they could only but dream of before the Tea Party revolution of 2010. Fracking. Firearms. Medicaid. Charter schools. Regulations. Taxes. Abortion. Teachers union. Consolidation. Reorganization. Environmental laws.
But too much good news is bad news for revolutionaries. Good economic news and a growing list of Republican legislative successes means a greater likelihood that the GOP will be united in 2016.
A united GOP is even worse news for North Carolina Democrats.
On Saturday, February 7, 2015, the State Executive Committee of the North Carolina Democratic Party will meet in Pittsboro. Their challenge is to decide how to restructure, reorganize and create a new vision needed to recover their political standing in North Carolina. There is no decision more critical to that end than the selection of a State Party Chair who can raise money.
A political party without money is one that cannot get its message out; cannot mobilize its base voters. More importantly, a political party without money is one that lacks the resources to restructure, reorganize and create a new vision for the political challenges of the 21st Century.
The challenges facing North Carolina Democrats are too great for ideological bickering. Just since 2010, Democrats have lost majorities in both chambers of the legislature, lost the Governor’s office, lost both U.S. Senate seats, and failed to carry the state for Obama in 2012.
They are not alone. Throughout the South, Democrats are facing the same long and arduous trek back to the state halls of political power.
When the second highest ranking Democrat in the U.S. Senate says, “We blew it,” I sit up and take notice. Such was the case on November 25, 2014, when U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, said, “Unfortunately, Democrats blew the opportunity the American people gave them in electing Obama and the Democratic Congress in 2008 amid a recession. We took their mandate and put all our focus on the wrong problem — healthcare reform.”
For emphasis: “We took their mandate and put all our focus on the wrong problem.”
The greatest threat to Republican political potential in 2016, both in Raleigh and Washington DC, is a misinterpretation by congressional and legislative majorities of the 2014 voter mandate.
Thank you so much for reading my report this year! There is no greater reward for a political writer than to be read by a balance of influential readers from all persuasions.
My goal has always been to provide a reliable analysis of political trends along with accurate forecasts of likely winners. In order to achieve that goal, I cannot be an advocate. If I were an advocate, my forecasts would be wrong half the time.
There are many sources of politically biased reporting, especially among advocacy news organizations. I urge you to read or listen to all of them. Biased perspectives on the status of campaigns are very helpful in sizing up competing arguments on who is likely to prevail in a race.
But if you do not have time to read or listen to all competing sources of political insight, please know that that is what I do every day throughout the year.
I had a secret forecasting advantage on January 10, 2014, when I titled the secondJohn Davis Political Report of the year, Vol. VII, No. 2, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan.
I also used that secret advantage on January 3, 2014, when I wrote the following in the firstJohn Davis Political Report of the year, Vol. VII, No. 1, North Carolina’s 2014 Political Preview:
Imagine waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC. If you are a member of the GOP, or if you prefer conservative solutions to problems, nothing could be finer. If you are a Democrat … ummmm, need I say more?
It happened.
A year of interviewing the most influential members of the Republican and Democratic parties in North Carolina during 2013 had given me a unique advantage in forecasting the likely winner in the Hagan-Tillis race in 2014.
I had secret measurements. Ten for Hagan. Ten for Tillis.
Bottom Line: Big night for Republicans in the state and nation, with the driving force in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race being the fact that more voters were concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than were concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.
North Carolina Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis defeated North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan by 48,501 votes out of a midterm election record turnout of 2,891,363 voters. He will serve in a solid 53-seat Republican majority in the U.S Senate, likely headed by Mitch McConnell, the current Senate Minority Leader.
Tillis won despite $35,569,285 spent by outside groups on attack ads against him, the most spent against any U.S. Senate candidate in the country in the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country, with $111 million accounted for as of Election Day.
Hagan raised $22,945,496 to Tillis’ $9,055,347.
North Carolina’s 13-member delegation to the US House of Representatives will have 10 Republicans and three Democrats. All incumbents won easily, as did newcomers Alma Adams, a Democrat in Democrat Mel Watt’s seat, and David Rouzer, a Republican in Democrat Mike McIntyre’s seat (the one-seat pick up for the GOP). US House 250 Republicans; 185 Democrats.
North Carolina’s 50-member Senate will have a 34-member Republican super majority, a gain of one, with Democrat Gene McLaurin losing to challenger Tom McInnis. All incumbent Senate Republicans won reelection, and all Open GOP seats were won by Republicans. There will be a 16-member Democratic minority in the state Senate.
North Carolina’s 120-member House will have 74 Republicans and 46 Democrats. Both chambers maintained their Republican super majorities.
North Carolina’s 7-member Supreme Court will be led by Chief Justice Mark Martin, a Republican, who will preside over a 4-3 Republican majority. Sam Ervin, a Democrat, defeated Republican Bob Hunter. Justices Robin Hudson and Cheri Beasley, both Democrats, fended off strong Republican challenges.
North Carolina’s 15-member Court of Appeals will have a Republican majority thanks to former Judge John Tyson’s victory in the 19-candidate race for Democrat Chief Judge John Martin’s seat. Lucy Inman, a Democrat, is the other newcomer to the court (Democrat Bob Hunter is retiring). Judge Mark Davis, a Democrat, won another term handily. Republican Judge Donna Stroud ran unopposed.
Tillis Tops List as Most Attacked U.S. Senate Candidate: Recent national news stories have reported that North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic U.S. Senator Kay Hagan and Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House Thom Tillis is likely to top the list of the most expensive U.S. Senate races in 2014, with spending in excess of $100 million.
Two-thirds of that $100 million is being spent by national independent groups, with 80% going to negative attack ads. A Washington Post analysis of who is “bearing the brunt of all of that negativity” shows that no candidate in America has had more money spent against them on negative ads than Thom Tillis in North Carolina.
A whopping $32 million has been spent on negative attack ads alone against Tillis.
Unfortunately for Hagan and North Carolina Democrats, the negative barrage of TV ads against Tillis has had two unintended consequences: Hagan’s five-point lead is down to zero; Hagan’s job disapproval is up five points.
Women and Blacks Down on Democratic Party: According to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted October 9-12, 2014, the Democratic Party has the worst Favorable (39%) to Unfavorable (51%) impression among Americans since 1984. What is most surprising, is that the downward spiral is driven by the disaffection of women and Black voters.
Among African-Americans, the positive image of the Democratic Party has declined by 17 points (82% to 65%) since August
Among women, the positive image of the Democratic Party has declined by 13 points (from 54% to 41%) since August
Democrats were already struggling against midterm election year odds of low turnout among their most loyal constituencies. Now, a dramatic disaffection of their most loyal constituencies.
Republicans on Track to Neutralize the Democrats’ Ground Game
If there is a game changer in the 2014 general election it is likely to be a superior GOP ground game that neutralizes the digital voter communications and turnout advantage Democrats established in 2008 and 2012. That potential is the result of an early commitment by the RNC to an in-house tech incubator called Para Bellum Labs, complete with 50 geeks and the best hardware and software money can buy, along with the allied support of organizations like Americans for Prosperity, who have committed tens of millions of dollars just to a ground game in 2014.
Of course, the Democrats are not ignoring the opportunity in 2014 to keep their digital advantage. They are operating under an umbrella called Project Ivy, scaling the highly successful Obama data-mining, contact and turnout operation to campaigns like North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race. And, there are many allied groups from unions to Planned Parenthood spending tens of millions of dollars to turn out African-Americans, single women and young voters.
Never doubt the ability of Democrats to turn out their voters in 2014.
Never doubt the ability of Republicans to match or surpass the Democrats’ turnout in 2014.
On Monday, September 22, 2014, the latest statewide poll of likely voters, released by High Point University, showed the race where it was in January, virtually tied with Hagan at 42% and Tillis at 40% (6% for Libertarian Sean Haugh; 12% Undecided or won’t say).
Key Question: So why is Kay Hagan struggling to seize a commanding lead in the race with Tillis despite a year-long fundraising and spending advantage? Because by an overwhelming margin, likely North Carolina voters disapprove of the job she and President Obama are doing.
President Barack Obama’s Job Approval is 38%; Disapprove 57%
Senator Kay Hagan’s Job Approval is 39%; Disapprove 50%
Historically, midterm elections are a referendum on the White House. With North Carolina voters having such low regard for the White House, ads saying “Hagan votes with the President 95% of the time” are keeping her disapproval numbers high and her potential for victory low.
Ultimately, this race will end in a tie with turnout operations determining the winner.
Nothing chills political fundraising more than the intimidating word from the majority party leadership that anyone who supports a certain candidate can forget the majority party’s support when they need help with their legislation.
You can rest assured that Democrat U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has put the word out to the political investor crowd that anyone backing North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis against North Carolina Democrat Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race can forget his support.
However, with most of the major national pundits saying that the next U.S. Senate Majority Leader is more likely to be a Republican, Sen. Harry Reid’s intimidation is greatly weakened.
Further, you can count on likely Republican U.S. Senate leaders to put the word out that in 2015, the GOP majority leadership will remember only those who supported Thom Tillis in 2014.
All political pollsters agree that the response of voters to the question, “If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democrat for Congress?” … also known as the Generic Congressional Ballot question … is one of the best predictors of which party has an advantage during any given election year.
According to the new bipartisan-led national George Washington University Battleground Poll, the GOP has a 4-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot at the fall 2014 starting gate.
GOP has a 16-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot in the states where there is a competitive U.S. Senate race (like North Carolina)
Independent voters are trending GOP 41% to 26% Democratic; 33% undecided
Republicans lead among Middle-Class voters by 11 points
GOP has a 12-point lead among those “extremely likely to vote” (51% to 39%)
69% of Republicans are “extremely likely to vote;” 57% of Democrats
There has been a dramatic loss of political momentum among North Carolina Democrats since 2008, the election year when historic voter registration and turnout accomplishments led to Greensboro Democrat Kay Hagan’s win over Elizabeth Dole for a seat in the U.S. Senate.
From January 1, 2008 through August 30, 2008, North Carolina Democrats registered a net gain of 171,955 new voters. This year, from January 1, 2014 through August 23, 2014, Democrats have suffered a net loss of 4,122 voters.
In 2008, Democrats had all of the power in North Carolina; the Governor, the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President Pro Tem of the Senate. Today, all of those positions are filled by Republicans. Today, the North Carolina Democratic Party has been abandoned by most of its financial backers from the past. Party leaders are in disarray, struggling to regain their footing.
There is so little respect for the North Carolina Democratic Party that the Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee has managed the $1,631,025 statewide turnout operation, with most of the money from the national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Kay Hagan’s political fortunes are certain to be impacted negatively by the loss of standing and resources of the North Carolina Democratic Party. The loss of momentum and enthusiasm this year when compared to 2008 is undeniably devastating.
Unless they can regain their 2008 momentum, Thom Tillis will defeat Kay Hagan this fall.
The best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1. They are clearly on that track, and it’s all being run out of the Wake County Democratic Party.
Since March 2014, the Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee has received $1,631,025, and has spent $1,563,534, almost all on “Office Rent” at 24 county headquarters around the state and “Salary” expenses for over 100 employees.
A new NPR (National Public Radio) poll released June 19, 2014, shows Pres. Obama’s Job Approval at only 38% among likely voters in the 12 states with competitive Senate races (which includes North Carolina). Perhaps more indicative of who is likely to have a political advantage this Fall are the survey responses by Independent voters that relate to whom voters trust by issue:
On the Economy, 48% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 28% trust Democrats
On Healthcare, 44% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 35% trust Democrats
On the Future of the Middle Class, Independent voters give both parties 38%
On Foreign Policy, 52% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 26% trust Democrats
The poll was conducted by a bipartisan team that included Democrat Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps and Republican Whit Ayers of Resurgent Republic.
If President Obama’s job approval remains in the low to mid 40s this Fall, he will be a drag on all Democrats running for the U.S. Senate, including Kay Hagan.
A growing list of scandals, as well as ongoing domestic and foreign policy challenges, suggest that Obama’s Job Approval will not likely recover enough by Oct/Nov for him to be a positive force for Democrats.
The national Tea Party groups like Americans for Prosperity, Tea Party Nation and Freedom Works cannot claim victory in the downfall of Eric Cantor because they did not spend one penny backing his opponent, David Brat, a Randolph-Macon College economics professor.
Brat spent only $122,000 on ads arguing that Cantor had become liberal because of his support for a pathway to citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants and because of his votes for budget deals. You don’t win on the issues with ads when you are outspent 26-to-1.
The Tea Party didn’t win this election. Eric Cantor lost the election.
This was not an anti-establishment anti-incumbent vote. Only one incumbent member of the U.S. House has lost this year: Ralph Hall, the oldest member of Congress at 91-years old.
This was an anti-Eric Cantor vote. An anti-Eric Cantor’s staff vote.
Oh, and he also lost because thought that he could win in 2014 like he always had; that he didn’t need to do anything different in 2014. That he could fight the last war.
Per AP Thurs, May 29, 2014: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has begun reserving “almost $44 million in advertising time” with television stations in 39 fall races.
North Carolina Implications: No North Carolina Congressional race is on the list of the 39 targets. That’s because there are no opportunities for Democrats to pick up a seat in North Carolina in 2014. Following the November elections, North Carolina will have 10 Republicans and 3 Democrats in the delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Per AP: “In all, the campaign committee plans to spend money in 19 districts to defend incumbent Democrats, mostly newcomers, and in 17 districts that are in Republican hands.”
Per AP: “That’s [$44 million] the largest ever from the committee and the biggest so far this election year from a party-run campaign committee.” By booking the time early, the DCCC locks in a lower price and a “discount of up to 35 percent.”
To date, no non-partisan observer has argued that Democrats can net 18 wins in 2014, the number needed to take the US House majority from Republicans (who have 233 seats to 199 seats held by Democrats). There are three vacancies.
Here are the 39 targeted races with cities highlighted:
North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson, one of the three Democrats on the “non-partisan” seven-member court, is likely to win her race this fall against Republican Eric Levinson, a Mecklenburg Superior Court judge, thereby earning a third term on the state’s highest court, all thanks to an ill-conceived primary TV ad accusing her of being soft on child molesters.
The Republican ad was ill-conceived for two reasons. One, voters who participate in midterm primary elections are older and wiser; wise to the wily ways of political TV ad consultants. For emphasis: They are the least likely voters to be duped. Two, the allegation that Justice Hudson is soft on child molesters is so far outside the boundaries of believability that it backfired.
On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC.”
That “possibility” is now a probability. The difference? GOP unity and enthusiasm during a midterm election year when the party in the White House always loses most of the close races.
North Carolina Democrats really need social and economic Republican hardliners to divide and weaken the GOP in 2014. That’s because they, the Democrats, lack the wherewithal to win against a united Republican Party. Unfortunately, Republicans are not cooperating.
So why aren’t Republicans likely to divide and conquer each other in 2014? Because the social and economic hardliners are out of favor. The government shutdown in October 2013 was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Republicans have now turned their attention away from ideological purity to winning legislative majorities, the U.S. House, and seizing the U.S. Senate.
If I had to choose only one bit of information for forecasting partisan fortunes in 2014, like the winner in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, it would be the answer to the question: Is the new GOP Honeybadger just another Republican Orca, or is it a Democratic Narwhal?
Narwhal? Orca? Honeybadger?
Project Narwhal is Democratic President Obama’s 2012 $100 million “get out the vote” digital data-mining, voter contact and turnout tracking operation. Project Narwhal drove up the turnout of the most unlikely voters in 2012, like African Americans in Ohio and young people everywhere, giving Obama another four years in the White House.
Orca? Orca is Republican Mitt Romney’s 2012 “get out the vote” app that was supposed to neutralize Obama’s Project Narwhal. Instead, Orca crashed. It turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. Never beta tested! In Boston, on Election Day, a Romney campaign aide told the Washington Times, “Somebody said Orca is lying on the beach with a harpoon in it.”
New Jersey and Virginia Signal Good Year for Incumbents
Virginia and New Jersey were the only two states in 2013 with gubernatorial and legislative elections. The political trends in those two states are almost always reliable predictors for North Carolina a year later. Read the predictive trends from those states for North Carolina in 2014.
Congressional and Legislative Races Will Not be Close
Read the big-picture forecasts for North Carolina in 2014 based on trends from 2013 and early indicators of likely advantages, like incumbency, fundraising and non-presidential election year turnout.
Tillis Likely GOP U.S. Senate Nominee with No Runoff
As to statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia, the overarching trend was the demand for leaders who placed a higher premium on getting things done over those who thought sticking to their beliefs was more important even if nothing gets done. In North Carolina’s U.S. Senate GOP primary race, that trend favors the election of Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, outright on May 6.
The safest place in America for Democrats is the District of Columbia, where 72% of the adults are Democratic/Lean Democratic and 14.3% are Republican/Lean Republican. The next best place in America for Democrats is New York, followed on the Top 10 Most Democratic states by Hawaii, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, California, Illinois and Delaware.
The safest place in America for Republicans is Wyoming, where 60.1% of adults are Republican/Lean Republican and only 20% are Democratic/Lean Democratic. Joining Wyoming among the Top 10 Most Republican states are Utah, North Dakota, Idaho, Kansas, Alaska, South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana and Oklahoma.
Where is North Carolina ranked on the list of state party leanings?
North Carolina is right square in the middle of Gallup’s list of state party leanings
41.3% of North Carolina adults are Democratic/Lean Democratic; 41.9% are Republican/Lean Republican
North Carolina is nestled in the middle of the list between Wisconsin and Ohio on the Democratic side; Arizona and Virginia on the Republican side
North Carolina is closer in partisan identity to Minnesota, Maine and Oregon than Tennessee, South Carolina and Alabama
Now you know why it’s so expensive to run for political office in North Carolina. Neither party has a partisan advantage.
If you take a look at the midterm elections during the second term of the last two presidents you will discover that they were not very favorable for North Carolina Republicans. Those two election years, 1998 and 2006, were years in which the GOP learned the hard way that you can’t win just by exploiting the misfortunes of Democrats. That strategic misjudgment could easily by repeated in 2014 if the GOP spends the year attacking Democrats on ObamaCare.
In 1998, the second term midterm elections of sex scandal-plagued Democratic President Bill Clinton, the state GOP suffered the loss of the majority in the North Carolina House of Representatives and lost Lauch Faircloth’s U.S. Senate seat to upstart John Edwards. At the federal level, Democrats actually gained five U.S. House seats and did not lose any Senate seats.
In 2006, Republicans lost the majority in the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, the majority of the governors and the majority of state legislatures in great part due to a scandal-plagued Republican Congress that broke all records for pork barrel spending.
Here in North Carolina, Republicans lost six-term U.S. Congressman Charles Taylor from Transylvania County, contributing to the Democratic takeover of the U.S. House.
At the state level, Republicans lost three out of four North Carolina Supreme Court races in 2006 (Democrats Sarah Parker, Patricia Timmons-Goodson and Robin Hudson won), and lost ground in both the state House and Senate despite the year-long scandal involving Speaker Black.
Important: Congressional Republicans humored the middle with liberal spending but lost their base voter. If you win the middle voters, but lose your base voter, you lose the war.
Then, on January 21, 2014, perhaps the biggest surprise of all January Republican surprises.
Glenn Beck, former Fox News commentator with a reputation for irrational diatribes and hateful commentary, said in an interview with Fox News host Megyn Kelly, “I made an awful lot of mistakes, and I wish I could go back and be more uniting in my language. Because I think I played a role unfortunately in helping tear the country apart. And it’s not who we are. I didn’t realize how really fragile the people were. I thought we were kind of a little more in it together.
And now I look back and I realize if we could have talked about the uniting principles a little more, instead of just the problems, I think I would look back on it a little more fondly.”
Oh my goodness. Glenn Beck admitting on Fox News that his uncivil commentary helped tear the country apart. Admitting that words can hurt your party’s brand among voters in the middle. A clear sign of shifting priorities among Republicans.
The GOP’s failure to take back the White House and U.S. Senate in 2012 sparked a year of bitter feuding. Establishment conservatives and Tea Party insurgents blamed each other for destroying yet another opportunity to right the nation’s ship. But, then came October 1, 2013; the day of the government shutdown. A fiasco that damaged Republicans so badly that it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate in 2014.
Granted, American voters blamed everyone associated with the shutdown, even dubbing the 113th Congress the “Worst Congress in History.” A Democrat-led Senate; Republican-led House. According to Gallup, only 5% of Democrats approved of the job Congress was doing in October 2013; only 13% of Independents and 15% of Republicans approved.
But most of all, voters blamed the Republican Party. Ten times more than the Democrats.
Of course, the great hope of Brannon/Harris/Flynn/Grant is to force a primary runoff by ganging up on Tillis with enough outside super PAC attack ads that keep his vote below 40%. However, the odds are greater that they will splinter the hard right conservatives and Tillis will parlay a sizable cash and organizational advantage into a primary victory on May 6, 2014.
Tillis’ legislative accomplishments are such that it will simply be too difficult for any Republican to get very far with an attempt to discredit his commitment to the conservative cause. In other words, even his on primary detractors will not likely stay divided against him for long. They want to defeat Hagan.
The Shutdown last December taught most Republicans two important lessons: one, bitter ideological divisions hurt them more than the Democrats; two, just saying no without an alternative proposal is not acceptable to most Americans as leadership.
Imagine waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC.
If you are a member of the GOP, or if you prefer conservative solutions to problems, nothing could be finer. If you are a Democrat … ummmm, need I say more?
