New Study of North Carolina Partisan Bias Confirms Most Legislative Seats are Republicans to Lose March 8, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 4 2:13 pm Friendly GOP NC Senate Districts Outnumber Democrats 27 to 16 A new study of the partisan bias of each of the state’s 170 legislative districts, released today by the non-partisan political
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New Study of North Carolina Partisan Bias Confirms Most Legislative Seats are Republicans to Lose
March 8, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 4 2:13 pm
Friendly GOP NC Senate Districts Outnumber Democrats 27 to 16
A new study of the partisan bias of each of the state’s 170 legislative districts, released today by the non-partisan political research organization NCFEF (NC FreeEnterprise Foundation), confirms a convincing GOP advantage in the 2018 legislative seats that in my judgment argues well for ongoing Republican majorities in the North Carolina Senate and House for the remainder of the decade.
In the 50-member North Carolina Senate, Republicans have 27 friendly seats compared to only 16 friendly seats for the Democrats. As a simple majority in the state Senate is 26 seats, Republicans can lose all seven seats considered “Competitive” by NCFEF and still hold the majority.
NCFEF rates the 50 NC Senate seats as follows:
- 15 NC Senate Districts as “Strong Democratic”
- 1 NC Senate District as “Lean Democratic”
- 7 NC Senate Districts as “Competitive”
- 8 NC Senate Districts as “Lean Republican”
- 19 NC Senate Districts as “Strong Republican”
A complete list of the NC Senates districts with commentary by Jonathan Kappler, NCFEF Executive Director, can be found here on the NCFEF website.
Friendly GOP NC House Districts Outnumber Democrats 64 to 42
In the 120-member North Carolina House of Representatives, Republicans have 64 friendly seats compared to only 42 for the Democrats. As a simple majority in the state House is 61 seats, Republicans can lose all 14 seats considered “competitive” by NCFEF and still hold the majority.
NCFEF rates the 120 NC House seats as follows:
- 37 NC House Districts as “Strong Democratic”
- 5 NC House District as “Lean Democratic”
- 14 NC House Districts as “Competitive”
- 8 NC House Districts as “Lean Republican”
- 56 NC House Districts as “Strong Republican”
A complete list of the NC House districts with commentary by Jonathan Kappler, NCFEF Executive Director, can be found here on the NCFEF website.
Can a “Stormy” Daniels Wave Threaten the GOP Political Moorings?
Of course, Democrats are hoping for a giant wave energized by White House political ineptitude, like the sex scandal involving President Trump and porn star Stormy Daniels, to come crashing down on the Republican shore this November, tearing Republicans away from their most secure moorings.
Yes, sex scandals can cause destructive political waves. However, the great lesson of the presidential campaign of 2016 is if you’re going to start a wave based on the sexual conduct of your Republican opponent, you better be sure your party leaders do not include those like former president Bill Clinton, impeached for lying about his affair with a 21-year-old White House intern.
Exploiting his political power for sexual favors was mere sport for Bill Clinton throughout his terms as governor in Arkansas and president. Yet, Democrats continue to revere Bill Clinton. A Democratic wave based on the sexual misconduct of President Trump will merely trickle to shore.
And besides, legislative district maps are like seawalls built to withstand political waves.
That’s why the new study of the partisan bias of each of the state’s 170 legislative districts, released today by the non-partisan political research organization NCFEF, is so significant. It confirms a convincing GOP advantage in the 2018 legislative seats that in my judgment argues well for ongoing Republican majorities in the North Carolina Senate and House for the remainder of the decade.
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