Part 2: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime October 28, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 10, Part 2 10:13 am NOTE: This is Part 2 of a report titled, GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime. Part
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Part 2: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime
October 28, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 10, Part 2 10:13 am
NOTE: This is Part 2 of a report titled, GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime. Part 1 focused on how Democrats lost the moral authority to lead the nation, with implications for the US Senate races. Part 2 covers races for the NC Appellate Judiciary, US House, and the NC General Assembly.
NC Supreme Court Seats Most Politically Consequential Races of 2022
WILL THE COURT FLIP? The two most politically consequential races in North Carolina this fall are for two seats on the North Carolina Supreme Court. If Republicans win one of the two, the court will flip from 4 – 3 Democratic to a 4 – 3 Republican majority.
Why is that so important? Because Republicans will then be able to redraw the congressional and legislative maps as they please, expanding their advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates for the remainder of the decade.
The US Supreme Court is now out of the partisan gerrymandering cases, leaving those issues to the states. Equally important, the governor of North Carolina has no authority to veto remapping legislation. Remove the Democratic state Supreme Court as an obstacle to Republican gerrymandering, and you will see new maps that boost GOP power.
WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN? If Democratic early voting turnout continues to trend below 2018 and 2020 levels, and if Republican early voting turnout continues to trend above 2018 and 2020, that plus a shift in independent voters towards GOP candidates signals it’s going to be a good night on November 8, 2022 for Republicans in the two state Supreme Court races and the four North Carolina Court of Appeals races.
EARLY VOTING TURNOUT OCT 28: 8th-day early voting turnout trends compared to same day 2018 and 2020, compliments of Mike Rusher, The Results Company:
- Democrats: down7% compared to 2018 early voting; 2.3% under 2020 turnout.
- Republicans: up8% over 2018; up 2.0% over 2020.
- Black voters: 18.5% of early voters, down from 20.3% in 2018 and 21.0% in 2020.
- Women: 52% of total, down5% below 2018 and 0.3% below 2020 (trending upward)
- Men: down3% from 2018 early voting share; up 3.4% over 2020 share.
- Unaffiliated voters are up over 2018 and 2020 (Note: independent voters breaking Republican nationally and in NC public opinion polls).
- The more Democrat-friendly under-45 age voters are lagging (31-44 age group is 9.1% of turnout; 18-30 age group only 5.5%). Over-45 year old voters are 85.4% of total.
- Over half (50.6%) of early voters thus far are the more GOP-friendly 65+ age group.
Democratic Justice Sam Ervin, IV may buck the Republican-friendly trends. He has unique positive statewide name identity because of his grandfather, Senator Sam Ervin. On the other hand, voters are so hyper-partisan right now that almost all Republicans/Lean Republican voters are more likely to vote a straight ticket in the six Appellate Judiciary races.
For background and contact for the two Supreme Court and four Court of Appeals races See the North Carolina Board of Elections Judicial Voter Guide 2022.
US House: Final 2022 Big Picture Forecast
US HOUSE MAJORITY: On November 8, 2022, Republicans will retake the majority in the U.S. House, thereby ending 82-year-old Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s reign as the most powerful Democrat in the United States Congress and most powerful woman in America.
The average net loss of the party in the White House in a midterm year is 26 House seats, suggesting the GOP will win a majority in the range of 239 seats (218 needed for majority).
NC CONGRESSIONAL RACES WHERE REPUBLICANS ARE FAVORED: In North Carolina’s congressional races, 7-of-14 districts so clearly favor the election of Republicans that there is no doubt the Republican nominee will win. Those likely Republican winners: Representatives Virginia Foxx, Patrick McHenry, Richard Hudson, Dan Bishop, David Rouser and Greg Murphy, along with newcomer Republican Chuck Edwards, who defeated former Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the GOP primary.
NC CONGRESSIONAL RACES WHERE DEMOCRATS ARE FAVORED: Six of NC’s 14 congressional districts so clearly favor the election of Democrats that there is no doubt the Democratic nominee will win. Those likely Democratic winners: Representatives Kathy Manning, Alma Adams and Deborah Ross, along with likely newcomers to the U.S. House Valerie Foushee (Rep. David Price’s district), Jeff Jackson (new district 14), and Don Davis (Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s district).
NC’s ONLY TOSS UP DISTRICT IS U.S. HOUSE 13: U.S. House District 13, a newly reconfigured swing district that includes southern Wake County, all of Johnston County, and portions of Harnett and Wayne Counties, is likely to be won by Republican newcomer Bo Hines. Hines’s advantages include President Biden’s low job approval on the most important problems facing the country, especially the cost of living and crime.
Note: North Carolina’s court-imposed maps are for one election only. New maps next cycle.
NC General Assembly: Supermajorities Yes or No?
The growing national Republican-friendly momentum in the final days of the 2022 midterm elections is why GOP candidates are more likely than Democrats to win the swing districts in races for the North Carolina Senate and House of Representatives.
NC SENATE: Republicans have a 28-seat majority in the 50-member Senate. They need to win two swing seats to reach the supermajority threshold of 30 seats. The GOP holds all seats in districts carried by former President Trump. Flipping two Democrat-held seats is not a tall order for seasoned NC Senate political pros. Supermajority likely.
NC HOUSE: Republicans have a 69-seat majority in the 120-member House, three short of a 72-seat supermajority. A GOP supermajority has been improbable all year. Now, a rising red wave creates a real opportunity for a Republican supermajority in the NC House.
Messages Voters Will Be Sending With Their Votes This Year
The NBC News October poll includes a question asking American voters what message they will be sending with their votes to those candidates who win. Six of the top eight answers are about the importance of political leaders to focus on solving problems on the mind of most voters rather than partisan or ideological agendas. The six messages are:
- Be More Effective/Productive/Do More
- More Bipartisanship/Work for the People
- Save This Country/Turn This Country Around
- Honesty/Integrity/Trust Matters
- Focus on the Problems Within the United States
- Listen to Your Constituents
These are cautionary political messages for both parties. Contrary to what many leaders say, no one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022.
The mandate is to focus on solving the most important problems on the mind of voters.
END
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
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