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North Carolina General Assembly Maps Now Fixed for Fall Races with Major GOP Advantage in Friendly Districts

June 29, 2018         Vol. XI, No. 13         7:13 am

Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering Still the Law of the Land

North Carolina Republicans will begin the fall state legislative races with a major advantage in the number of friendly districts, all thanks to this week’s U.S. Supreme Court rulings upholding the standard for fairness established by Democrats during the 20^th Century.

The Democratic standard for fairness? Extreme partisan gerrymandering.

So, are the North Carolina maps finally fixed for fall 2018 races? Yes.

As of Thursday, June 28, 2018, an 8-1 U.S. Supreme Court ruling secured North Carolina’s legislative maps as currently drawn for the fall. Per the Associated Press, “It means the districts used to elect nominees in the May primary should be the ones used in the November general election, and no special candidacy filing periods and elections are required.”

Finally, it’s done. Advantage Republicans.

Liberal Daily Kos Says New Districts Almost as Bad for Democrats as Old

So, just how big is the Republican advantage among the 170 state legislative districts in 2018?

For starters, the GOP has a 35-15 Senate supermajority, but only needs 26 wins for majority control. It is virtually impossible to find 11 opportunity districts for Democrats to flip in the Senate to take the majority. Ending the GOP supermajority with a net gain of 6 Senate seats is a more reasonable goal.

Democrats face the same practically insurmountable challenge on the House side, where the GOP enjoys a 75-45 supermajority. Republicans only need to hold 61 of their 75 seats to keep majority control. Finding 16 opportunity districts on a Republican-drawn map needed for a Democratic majority is virtually impossible. Whereas, ending the GOP supermajority only takes a net gain of 4 House seats.

Per an April 16, 2018 study by Daily Kos, a liberal blog and internet forum, Thanks to Backdoor GOP Gerrymander, North Carolina’s New Maps Are Almost as Bad as the Old Ones, “North Carolina’s state Senate has the ninth-strongest GOP lean in the country, while its state House ranks fourth—and first among potentially competitive chambers.”

Noting that President Trump carried the state by 50.5% to Hillary Clinton’s 46.8%, the study’s author, Jeff Singer, points out that the net difference in the total seats won by both candidates under the new maps versus the old maps in North Carolina is, “exactly zero seats.”

“Breaking the GOP’s veto-proof three-fifths supermajorities in either chamber is still going to be a major challenge for Democrats,” concludes Jeff Singer with the Daily Kos, “Much less actually gaining control of the legislature.”

Reuters Says Minnesota Only State where Democrats Can Flip Legislature

A new 10-state study by Reuters [that includes North Carolina] of legislative turnover opportunities, released June 16, 2018, draws the following conclusion: “Only one state, Minnesota, has enough Republican-held districts won by Clinton to flip a legislative chamber.”

The value of using Republican-held districts won by Clinton as a measure of opportunities for Democrats can be seen in the 2017 Virginia House of Delegates election results, where Democrats flipped 15 seats from Republicans. However, 14 of the 15 were carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Reuters combed through 1,500 legislative districts in North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin, looking for seats held by Republicans from districts carried by Hillary Clinton. Only Minnesota proved promising.

Thanks to the GOP takeover of two-thirds of the legislative chambers in 2010, Republicans throughout the nation seized the opportunity to gain an advantage through extreme partisan gerrymandering. North Carolina Republicans, who had not had a majority in both the state Senate and House of Representatives since 1896, took full advantage of the opportunity.

NCFEF Analysis Confirms Few Republicans in Clinton Districts

In North Carolina, per Jonathan Kappler, Executive Director of NCFEF and one of the state’s leading authorities on legislative districts, there are only a handful of seats held by Republicans from districts carried by Hillary Clinton. Kappler writes:

• “According to our data, there are three NC Senate districts won by Hillary Clinton and are currently GOP-held: Senate 19 (Meredith), 27 (Wade), and 41 (Tarte).”
• “No NC Senate districts won by President Trump that are currently Democratic-held.”
• “4 NC House districts won by Hillary Clinton and are currently GOP-held: House 25 (Collins, but it’s an open seat race as he’s retiring), House 57 (Blust, but it’s an open seat race as he’s retiring), House 104 (Dulin), and House 105 (Stone).”
• “5 NC House districts won by President Trump and are currently Democratic-held: House 7 (Bobbie Richardson), 12 (George Graham), 21 (Larry Bell, but it’s an open seat race as he’s retiring), 66 (Goodman), and 116 (Turner).”

Nationally, Democrats are understandably encouraged by flipping 43 state legislative seats to their side of the aisle since President Trump took office. However, 43 seats are not an indication of a “wave.”

Wave election years are distinguished by the large number of incumbents defeated.

Example: Republicans flipped a net of 680 legislative seats in 2010, defeating 492 Democratic incumbents (only 15 GOP incumbents lost), and winning 729 Open Seats to 449 for the Democrats.

• In 2010, a total of 1,733 new state legislators were elected in the United States, with Republicans electing 1,266 newcomers to 467 Democratic newcomers.
• Republicans enjoyed a net gain of 20 legislative chambers in 2010, from 33 to 53.

That’s what a wave election year looks like. Incumbents defeated in big numbers.

Thanks to extreme partisan gerrymandering by Republicans after the 2010 census, the opportunities for Democrats to defeat incumbents, especially in North Carolina, are severely limited in 2018.

Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. Denuclearization and reunification of Korean peninsula. FBI and DOJ scandals. Another conservative Supreme Court nominee likely. All building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.

Meanwhile, as of Thursday, June 28, 2018, an 8-1 U.S. Supreme Court ruling secured North Carolina’s legislative maps as currently drawn for the fall. Advantage Republicans.

END –

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