John Davis Consulting

JUNE 4 UPDATE: June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea

June 4, 2018         Vol. XI, No. 9         4:13 pm

U.S. Supreme Court rules “hostility” towards Christians unconstitutional in favor of Colorado baker who refused to bake wedding cake for gay couple

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-to-2 today in favor of a Christian baker in Lakewood, Colorado, who refused to make a wedding cake for a same-sex couple because of his religious convictions. The court stated that the religious beliefs of the owner of Masterpiece Cakeshop, Jack Phillips, were not treated with impartiality by the Colorado Civil Rights Commission, which ruled earlier that he had discriminated against the gay couple.

Here are key points:

• Colorado Civil Rights Commission violated the baker’s First Amendment religious rights by “showing hostility” towards the baker’s religious beliefs;
• Colorado Civil Rights Commission was “neither tolerant nor respectful of his religious beliefs,” and instead, “showed animus” towards the baker, thereby violating the baker’s rights.

Liberal justices Stephen Breyer and Elena Kagan joined the four conservative justices, along with Justice Anthony Kennedy, a swing vote, in the 7-2 decision.

Liberal justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor were the two dissenting justices.

FOR EMPHASIS: The U.S. Supreme Court DID NOT RULE that a baker has a constitutional right to refuse service to a gay couple. The court ruled that Christian bakers have a constitutional right to have their religious beliefs treated with impartiality and neutrality by the government.

Writing for the court, Justice Anthony Kennedy said that the larger issue of the constitutionality of the right to refuse a service to a gay couple based on religious convictions “must await further elaboration” in the courts. Many such cases are pending.

POLITCIAL IMPLICATIONS: Politically, this is a major win for religious conservatives who have long felt that the federal judiciary and other government officials have not respected their right to faith-based business practices.

Democrats and Republicans can use this issue to motivate their base to vote this fall in the 34 U.S. Senate races (25 Democratic seats; 9 Republican seats). The next class of U.S. Senators is very likely to have an opportunity to confirm another U.S. Supreme Court justice.

There is real, long-term political danger for Democrats to be associated with the “impermissible hostility” and “animus” of the far-left wing of the party (including judges) towards people of faith. That is especially true in North Carolina, ranked by Gallup as 8th in the nation in the percentage of residents who say they are “Very Religious.”

June is busiest month of the year for primaries and SCOTUS decisions

June is the busiest month of the year when it comes to the political elections calendar, with 17 states holding primary races. By comparison, there are none in July. However, 16 states have primaries in August. There are five more in September. Here is the June list:

• June 5: California, Montana, N Jersey, Alabama, S Dakota, Mississippi, N Mexico and Iowa
• June 12: North Dakota, Virginia, Nevada, South Carolina, Maine
• June 19: Washington, DC
• June 26: Utah, Colorado, Maryland, Oklahoma

June is the final month of this term of the U.S. Supreme Court. Major decisions are coming.

SCOTUS to decide Trump travel ban and “extreme partisan gerrymandering”

Other major U.S. Supreme Court decisions coming in June:

• EXTREME PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING: Is it constitutional for the legislative majority in a state that is roughly 50%/50% Republicans and Democrats to draw their party a 75%/25% “extreme partisan advantage” in the number of friendly congressional districts?
• TRUMP TRAVEL BAN: Do presidents have the constitutional authority under U.S. immigration laws to ban travelers from countries where terrorist activity is heavily concentrated, even if all the countries banned are predominantly Muslim?

Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. North Korean denuclearization and reunification with South Korea. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.

But, that could all change in June.

Politically, June is on track to become the most consequential month of the midterm election year.

END –

Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.

Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.

Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.