Unprofessional Journalists Inflame Political Incivility by Fueling the Contempt One Faction Has for Another March 7, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 3 12:13 pm Left-Biased New Yorker Equally Unobjective as Right-Biased Fox News On Wednesday, March 6, 2019, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez announced that the Fox News network would not be hosting any of
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Unprofessional Journalists Inflame Political Incivility by Fueling the Contempt One Faction Has for Another
March 7, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 3 12:13 pm
Left-Biased New Yorker Equally Unobjective as Right-Biased Fox News
On Wednesday, March 6, 2019, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez announced that the Fox News network would not be hosting any of the DNC’s presidential debates, based on a just-released article in The New Yorker, THE MAKING OF THE FOX NEWS WHITE HOUSE, arguing that Fox News is “a servile propaganda operation” of the Trump Administration.
Tom Perez said that The New Yorker article, “has led me to conclude that the [Fox News] network is not in a position to host a fair and neutral debate for our candidates.” So, who have the Democrats selected as the networks that can be relied on for fairness and neutrality? CNN and MSNBC have been selected as the first two hosts of the upcoming 12 Democratic candidate debates beginning in June.
Unfortunately for Perez, the Media Bias/Fact Check website rates The New Yorker, CNN and MSNBC as left-biased news sources equally unreliable as Fox News for fairness and neutrality. Or, in the words of the New Yorker article, they are “servile propaganda operations” of the left.
The Left Bias list on the Media Bias/Fact Check website includes CNN, Cosmopolitan, Daily Kos, Huffington Post, MSNBC, New Yorker, Newsweek, and many others. Here is what defines Left Bias:
Left Bias: These media sources are moderately to strongly biased toward liberal causes through story selection and/or political affiliation. They may utilize strong loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by using appeal to emotion or stereotypes), publish misleading reports and omit reporting of information that may damage liberal causes. Some sources in this category may be untrustworthy.
Thanks to websites like Media Bias/Fact Check, many in the political news media have been caught picking sides. They have been caught being biased toward liberal or conservative causes, “through their story selection.” They intentionally seek to influence their readers or listeners by using words that “appeal to emotion or stereotypes.” They have been caught publishing “misleading reports and omitting reporting of information that may damage their causes.”
Is Fox News biased? No more so than The New Yorker, CNN or MSNBC. All four have been caught fanning the flames of partisan incivility by way of biased reporters and cable TV hosts masquerading as objective professional journalists.
How do you know a journalist is unprofessional? They choose sides. Their reporting intentionally fuels the contempt one faction has for another. Just like the years leading up to the Civil War.
Fifth Cause of the Civil War: “The publication of sectional books”
In my last report, I wrote about the relevance today of two of the five causes of the American Civil War from a book, History of the United States, written in 1876, only 11 years after the Civil War (1861-1865), by John Clark Ridpath, Professor of History at Indiana Asbury University (DePauw University).
Ridpath argued that in addition to the issues of states’ rights and slavery, other causes of the Civil War included the estrangement between the people of the North and the South that led to “questioning each other’s motives, misrepresenting each other, and suspecting each other of dishonesty and ill-will,” along with, “The evil influence of demagogues.”
Ridpath also saw “The publication of sectional books” as a cause of the Civil War:
- “Many works were published … whose popularity depended wholly on the animosity existing between the two sections. Such books were generally filled with ridicule and falsehood.”
- “The manners and customs, language and beliefs, on one section were held up to the contempt and scorn of the people of the other section.”
Publications filled with falsehood and ridicule, whose popularity depended on the animosity between two groups? Sounds exactly like today. Of course, today’s publications include social media, littered with venomous partisan hostility.
Today’s publications include The New Yorker, Fox News, CNN and MSNBC.
News Media Lost the Trust of Americans Long Before Trump
Although many newsrooms like the New York Times and the Washington Post blame President Trump’s “Fake News” label for their loss of credibility and market share, Gallup’s 40-year study of the confidence Americans have newspapers shows a steady and precipitous decline in public trust.
In 1979, per Gallup, 51% of Americans had either a “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of confidence in newspapers. “Some” confidence totaled 35%; “Very Little” or “No” confidence was only 13%.
Ten years later, in 1989, those saying they had a “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of confidence in newspapers was down to 37%. Ten years after that, “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” was down to 33%.
Today, Americans who have a “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of confidence in newspapers has dropped from 51% in 1979 to only 23%. Those who say they have “Very Little” or “No” confidence in newspapers has increased from 13% in 1979 to 40%.
So, it was not Donald Trump who destroyed the credibility of the news media. It was news media professionals who exploited “the animosity existing between [political factions]; who filled their air time and pages “with ridicule and falsehood.”
Voters know that today’s partisan incivility, the #1 cause of the #1 problem facing the nation, “Government, poor leadership or politicians,” is inflamed daily by unprofessional journalists who fuel the contempt one political side has for another. Servile propaganda operations left and right.
Journalists so unprofessional that they can no long hide behind the freedom of the press.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report 
John N. Davis
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Carolinas Associated General Contractors, Charleston, SC, January 26, 2019
“John Davis is one of the best political speakers around. His sharp insights, anecdotes, wit and graphics are thought-provoking and entertaining. He also has the uncanny ability to cut to the chase for the big picture in the state, the nation and the world.”
Dave Simpson,
President & CEO, Carolinas Associated General Contractors,
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Partisan Incivility and Ambitious Demagogues are at the Root of the Nation’s #1 Problem February 22, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 2 8:13 am #1 problem is Government, poor leadership or politicians Americans are divided into angry partisan groups who are so polarized that they do not talk with each other; groups led by ambitious demagogues
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Partisan Incivility and Ambitious Demagogues are at the Root of the Nation’s #1 Problem
February 22, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 2 8:13 am
#1 problem is Government, poor leadership or politicians
Americans are divided into angry partisan groups who are so polarized that they do not talk with each other; groups led by ambitious demagogues claiming moral authority that must not be compromised. It is a time of partisan incivility. The #1 root cause of the nation’s #1 problem.
On Monday, February 18, 2019, Gallup released the results of its latest national survey of public opinion on the nation’s ills under the headline, Record High Name Government as Most Important Problem. The number of Americans naming “Government, poor leadership or politicians” as the nation’s #1 problem is the highest in 55 years, even higher than during the Watergate scandal.
Significantly, Gallup reports that both parties agree on the #1 problem. I repeat: both parties are tied in agreement that the #1 problem facing the nation is “Government, poor leadership or politicians.”
Causes? Of course, loyal Democrats and Republicans blame each other. However, per Gallup, “About half … blame both parties or cite ‘gridlock,’ ‘lack of cooperation.’”
Gridlock. Lack of cooperation. Growing ever worse as more Democrats become liberal and more Republicans become conservative. Per Gallup’s January 8, 2019 national study of partisan trends:
- In 1994, 25% of Democrats described themselves as liberal. Today, “for the first time ever, over half of Democrats (51%) say they are liberal;” only 13% say they are conservative.
- In 1994, 58% of Republicans described themselves as conservative. Today, 73% of Republicans say they are conservative, 22% say moderate, and only 4% say liberal.
Fueling the firestorm of partisan incivility are causes ominously similar to what 19th Century historian John Clark Ridpath saw as among the causes of the American Civil War: “The want of intercourse,” and, “The evil influence of demagogues.”
Causes of the Civil War inflaming partisan incivility today
In the year 1876, only 11 years after the Civil War (1861-1865), John Clark Ridpath, Professor of History at Indiana Asbury University (DePauw University), published History of the United States, in which he listed five causes of the Civil War.
The first two of Ridpath’s five causes are those most often mentioned today when we talk about the War Between the States: a constitutional crisis over the sovereignty of states vis-a-vis the authority of the federal government; and the right to own slaves.
But consider the eerily familiar words Ridpath used in 1876 to describe what he saw as other leading causes of the Civil War:
Quotes from Ridpath’s third cause, “The want of intercourse between the people of the North and the South,” found in Chapter LXII, include:
- “Between the North and the South there was little … interchange of opinion. From want of acquaintance the people, without intending it, became estranged, jealous, suspicious.”
- “They misjudged each other’s motives. They misrepresented each other’s beliefs and purposes. They suspected each other of dishonesty and ill-will. Before the outbreak of the war the people of the two sections looked upon each other almost in the light of different nationalities.”
Sound familiar? Estranged, jealous, suspicious? Questioning each other’s motives? Misrepresenting each other? Suspecting each other of dishonesty and ill-will?
“The evil influence of demagogues”
Quotes from Ridpath’s fifth cause, “The evil influence of demagogues,” include:
- “Many ambitious and scheming men had come to the front, taken control of the political parties and proclaimed themselves the leaders of public opinion. Their purposes were wholly selfish.”
- “The welfare and peace of the country were put aside as of no value.”
But that’s where we find ourselves today. Under the evil influence of demagogues who believe that character assassination in defense of partisan power is no vice.
We have become a nation divided by ambitious demagogues who encourage vengefulness, jealousy and suspicion rather than collaboration and win-win solutions for the nation’s most important problems.
That’s the threshold for partisan incivility. When leaders refuse to collaborate with the other side and compromise to get things done because a win-win solution gives your opponent a win.
In January, voters told Gallup that their top policy priorities for President Trump and the Congress were, in order of importance, the Economy, Health Care Costs, Education, Terrorism, Social Security, Medicare, Poor and Needy, Environment, Immigration, Jobs, Reducing Crime, Drug Addiction, Budget Deficit, Race Relations, Military, Transportation, Climate Change and Global Trade.
But voters know that it is pointless to expect their concerns to be resolved until they, the voters, solve the #1 problem facing the nation: Poor leadership corrupted by partisan incivility.
I fully expect that in 2020 the wise people of America will assume their duty to hold all candidates for public office accountable for today’s partisan incivility, the #1 cause of the #1 problem facing the nation, “Government, poor leadership or politicians.”
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
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Carolinas Associated General Contractors, Charleston, SC, January 26, 2019
“John Davis is one of the best political speakers around. His sharp insights, anecdotes, wit and graphics are thought-provoking and entertaining. He also has the uncanny ability to cut to the chase for the big picture in the state, the nation and the world.”
Dave Simpson,
President & CEO, Carolinas Associated General Contractors,
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here
Will Democrats Help President Trump and the GOP Out of the Political Hole They Have Dug for Themselves? January 31, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 1 1:13 pm Republicans Cannot Survive 2020 Without White Women & Independents President Trump and the GOP have dug themselves into a hole with suburban white women and independent voters that
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Will Democrats Help President Trump and the GOP Out of the Political Hole They Have Dug for Themselves?
January 31, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 1 1:13 pm
Republicans Cannot Survive 2020 Without White Women & Independents
President Trump and the GOP have dug themselves into a hole with suburban white women and independent voters that will be difficult to climb out of without a little luck and some political gifts from the Democrats in 2020. Gifts like a flawed presidential nominee. Luck like the 2016 “October Surprise” letter from FBI Director James Comey, reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails.
Donald Trump never would have won the Oval Office without a gift like Hillary Clinton, the first female nominee of a major party, who lost 53% of all white women to Trump, including 45% of white women with college degrees, per CNN exit polls. Who lost independent voters 46% to 42%.
But in 2018, per CNN exit polls, Democrats won independent voters back, 54% to 42%.
- Independent men flipped from Trump +12 points in 2016 to Democrats +7 points in 2018
- Independent women’s support for Democrats from +5 points in 2016 to +17 points in 2018
Women, overall in 2018, favored Democrats by 59% to 40%. White women, who had supported Trump with 53% over Clinton in 2016, were tied at 49% each for Democrats and Republicans.
College-educated white women, who had given Donald Trump 45% of their votes in 2016, gave Republicans only 39% of their votes in 2018. Independent women: 56% Democratic; 39% GOP.
Republicans simply cannot survive in 2020 without white women and independent voters.
A Republican Party of Aging, White Men Has No Political Future
There are 36 new women in the United State House of Representatives, 35 Democrats and 1 Republican. The total white men in the Democratic Caucus went from 41% to 38%. The total white men in the Republican Caucus went from 86% to 90%. That’s an appalling trendline. A losing trendline.
Here are a couple of the most appalling numbers from the makeup of the new US Congress:
- Republicans: 179 white men, 12 white women, 8 nonwhite men and 1 nonwhite woman
- Democrats: 91 white men, 48 white women, 55 nonwhite men and 41 nonwhite women
So, in a nation where 52% of the electorate are women, where, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center, one-third are nonwhite; a nation where one-in-ten eligible voters in 2020 will have been born outside the United States, where, per the US Census Bureau, Millennials will outnumber Baby Boomers in total population for the first time ever (73 million Millennials to 72 million Baby Boomers), Republican leaders in Washington, DC are becoming older, whiter and more male.
A Republican Party of aging, white men has no political future. The GOP must recruit women and minorities, especially in the suburbs, in order to stay competitive with Democrats, embolden by their takeover of the US House in 2018; driven to retake the White House and US Senate in 2020.
The loss of white women voters, particularly in the suburbs, and independent voters, cost Republicans the US House in 2018, and will cost them the White House in 2020, if fences aren’t mended. And the GOP leader who needs work hardest to mend those fences is President Trump.
Trump’s Average Job Approval After 638 Polls Has Shifted -12 Points
If you want a politically sobering look at President Trump’s job approval after two years in office, forget the latest polls and look at the average of the 638 national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics since his inauguration that asked the question, “Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Trump is doing?”
President Trump began his term with an average of 45% of Americans approving of the job he was doing, and 45% disapproving. Today, after 638 national polls, the president’s overall averages are 42% approval and 54% disapproval, a negative shift of -12 points.
The fact that President Trump’s approval has eroded only three points (from 45% to 42%) is politically valuable, showing little erosion among his base. However, the increase in disapproval from 45% to 54% is most significant. The rising disapproval number is where the slippage among suburban women and independent voters is most evident.
President Trump needs a job approval closer to 50% to win a second term, and today’s overall average of 42% approval with a 54% disapproval is a political train wreck waiting to happen.
Of course, President Trump will be pushing his “Promises Kept” campaign. He has time to successfully negotiate trade deals with big markets like China and make some progress on issues like the denuclearization of North Korea and domestic items like immigration and infrastructure.
However, Trump is going to need some luck (Mueller Report? FISA Scandal?) and some political gifts from the Democrats in 2020, like another flawed presidential nominee, in order to reach a 50/50 chance of winning a second term.
Meanwhile, Democrats are drifting dangerously close to a radical agenda so far left that they could very well lose everything they gained in 2018. Which brings me to the title of this report: Will Democrats help President Trump and the GOP out of the political hole they have dug for themselves?
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis to speak at your 2019 meetings!
Carolinas Associated General Contractors, Charleston, SC, January 26, 2019
“John Davis is one of the best political speakers around. His sharp insights, anecdotes, wit and graphics are thought-provoking and entertaining. He also has the uncanny ability to cut to the chase for the big picture in the state, the nation and the world.”
Dave Simpson,
President & CEO, Carolinas Associated General Contractors,
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here
NC Elections a Positive Political Correction as Trump/GOP Seawall Minimizes Democratic Wave November 9, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 18 1:13 pm $17.5 Million Spent Against Holding, Harris and Budd I had to eat a bit of crow for breakfast on Wednesday morning, after a year-long forecast that “Republicans will hold their majorities in Washington DC
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NC Elections a Positive Political Correction as Trump/GOP Seawall Minimizes Democratic Wave
November 9, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 18 1:13 pm
$17.5 Million Spent Against Holding, Harris and Budd
I had to eat a bit of crow for breakfast on Wednesday morning, after a year-long forecast that “Republicans will hold their majorities in Washington DC and Raleigh on November 6, 2018.” The GOP did hold the US Senate and the North Carolina General Assembly but lost the US House.
My reasoning all year was that the Democratic “blue wave” was being weakened by vengefulness over the loss of the White House to Donald Trump, and that a bitter wave would not likely breach the Trump/GOP seawall of gerrymandered districts and conservative accomplishments during an era of historic economic expansion.
That reasoning certainly held here in North Carolina, where all 10 Republican-held U.S. House districts were won by Republicans despite a “green wave” of Democratic money. The state’s three most vulnerable Republican US House seats saw $17.5 million spent by Democrats, all to no avail.
- GOP Congressman George Holding (Wake) won despite $3 million spent to defeat him ($1.9 million spent by outside sources; $1.1 million spent by opponent Linda Coleman)
- GOP candidate Mark Harris (Mecklenburg) won despite $9.1 million spent to defeat him ($4.2 million spent by outside sources; $4.9 million spent by opponent Dan McCready)
- GOP Congressman Ted Budd (Forsyth) won despite $5.4 million spent to defeat him ($1.8 million spent by outside sources; $3.6 million spent by opponent Kathy Manning)
However, throughout the United States historically GOP-friendly suburbs in metropolitan areas, including those around southern cities like Houston, Dallas and Atlanta, elected Democrats rather than Republicans to the United State House of Representatives. It was a political correction.
Amy Walter, National Editor of the Cook Political Report, in summarizing the US House results, said, “Democrats wanted this election … to be a total rebuke of Trump. A wipe out of epic proportions all across the country. That didn’t happen. What we saw instead was more of a retrenchment. Red areas stayed red; blue areas stayed blue. The only real movement was in [Republican-held] districts that were purple — districts that had voted for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or had narrowly supported Trump — tipped overwhelmingly to Democrats.”
As David Wasserman, Senior analyst of U.S. House races with the Cook Political Report, noted, “Democrats didn’t flip any district that Trump had carried by 55 percent or more.”
Bottom line: Republican-held swing seats, whether state legislative or congressional, in suburban America, are now almost all in the hands of Democrats. Upper income, highly-educated suburban white voters in large metropolitan areas are now, in the age of President Trump, predictably Democratic.
The newly realigned Democratic coalition as an Electoral College threat to the GOP in the 2020 race for the White House, however, is offset equally by the newly realigned Republican coalition.
White working-class districts that voted for Obama-then-Trump are now becoming predictably Republican. They are joining white red-state conservatives in the South and Midwest to form a solid, Electoral College coalition equal in potential to the Democratic Electoral College coalition of coastal blue states and large states with dominant urban/suburban progressives.
The same political realignment of the political parties is taking place here North Carolina. Republicans are getting wiped out in urban counties. After Tuesday’s elections, Wake County has only one Republican member of its 16-member delegation to the North Carolina General Assembly, Senator John Alexander. For emphasis: Wake County has zero “0” GOP-held seats in the North Carolina House.
In addition to losing almost all legislative seats in North Carolina’s largest urban counties, Republicans also lost seven GOP-held districts carried by Hillary Clinton. A combination of those two categories of losses cost Republicans their supermajorities in both the North Carolina Senate and House.
The North Carolina Senate went from a 35-15 Republican supermajority to a Republican majority of 29-21. The North Carolina House went from a 75-45 supermajority to a 66-54 Republican majority. And, although a loss of supermajorities is politically devastating for Republicans — they now have to reckon with Governor Cooper and his veto power — the fact is that North Carolina is a swing state, with about 40% Republican/Lean Republican and 40% Democratic/Lean Democratic.
That’s why I used the term “political correction” in the title of this report. Blue urban counties voted Democratic, including their once-GOP suburbs. Red rural and ex-urban counties voted Republican. We corrected ourselves politically into the perfectly balanced swing state that we are.
Tuesday was a win-win election for both Republicans and Democrats, nationally and in North Carolina. We are now a state and nation of divided power. A positive political correction.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Speech “Two Waves and a Seawall” … Schedule John Davis to speak at your 2019 meetings.
“Your presentation at the [September 7] 2018 NC CCIM State Conference in Asheville was captivating. As usual, you were able to bring perspective to the upcoming mid-year elections by providing everyone in the room something to think and talk about. Our membership spans a plethora of political viewpoints, and your presentation caters to everyone. Your ability to inform an audience without bias is striking and one of the reasons we continue to invite you back. Thank you for another great political overview for the commercial real estate industry.”
Beverly Keith, 2018 NC CCIM President
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here
Democrats Will Not Regain Power While Bill & Hillary Clinton are Motivating Conservative Women to Vote October 17, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 17 2:13 pm Conservative Women will Vote in Record Numbers Former President and First Lady Bill and Hillary Clinton were back in the news stirring up politically counterproductive controversy last week with Hillary
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Democrats Will Not Regain Power While Bill & Hillary Clinton are Motivating Conservative Women to Vote
October 17, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 17 2:13 pm
Conservative Women will Vote in Record Numbers
Former President and First Lady Bill and Hillary Clinton were back in the news stirring up politically counterproductive controversy last week with Hillary proclaiming in an October 9, 2018 interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that you can’t be civil with Republicans until after you defeat them, and stating in a CBS “Sunday Morning” interview that “No,” her husband’s affair with Monica Lewinski, a 22-year-old White House intern, was not an abuse of power.
Old-school, baggage-laden, out-of-touch establishment Democrats like Bill and Hillary Clinton are the #1 obstacle to the Democratic Party’s political recovery efforts in 2018. They are motivating conservative women to vote in record numbers with insults and dismissiveness. Conservative women don’t think for themselves. You should believe liberal women victims of sexual assault but not Bill Clinton’s conservative sexual assault victims.
Hillary Clinton probably was not thinking about women when she referred to Trump supporters as “a basket full of deplorables” during the 2016 presidential race, but the 53% of white women in North Carolina who voted for Trump took it personally. It motivated them to vote.
The college-educated white voters in North Carolina who voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by four points were probably also offended by Hillary Clinton’s claim that they were “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic – you name it.” It motivated them to vote.
Democrats will never regain power in Washington, DC or Raleigh as long as Hillary Clinton is empowering conservative women to turn out and vote. Hillary continued her insults earlier this year when she told an audience in Mumbai, India that white women who support President Trump are under “a sort of ongoing pressure to vote the way that your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should.”
Hillary Clinton has a hard time accepting the fact that conservative women with or without college degrees can think for themselves. Perhaps that’s why young, progressive women all over the United States have turned down every opportunity to get behind Hillary Clinton’s campaigns for the presidency.
In 2008, young progressive women chose Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential primary. In 2016, young progressive women chose Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton. And in the fall of 2016, young progressive women in large numbers chose to stay home.
Political Parties Have Zero Moral Authority on Sexual Misconduct
Which political party do you believe has a higher degree of moral authority on matters of sexual misconduct? After careful consideration of that question, I have concluded the following: both parties are tied at zero on anything to do with moral authority and sexual misconduct. Zero each. Period.
The great irony of the #MeToo movement is that it has confirmed what women who supported President Trump in 2016 have known all along: Democratic men are in no position to claim moral authority on matters of sexual misconduct over Republican men because they are just as bad.
That’s why Democrats who think that they are going to gain politically with their moral outrage over the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearing are in for a rude awakening. Democrats have zero moral authority with allegations of Republican sexual misconduct as long as they are dismissive of allegations against former president Bill Clinton of rape (Juanita Broaddrick), groping (Kathleen Willey), sexual assault (Leslie Millwee) and exposing himself (Paula Jones).
Believe the women?
The hypocrisy of Democrats using sexual misconduct as a compelling reason for risking the second longest period of economic expansion since World War II by throwing Republicans out of Congress is so outrageous that it is likely to backfire and drive up turnout of conservative women.
Republicans made a big mistake in 1998 by thinking voters would risk the longest period of US economic expansion since World War II over Democratic President Bill Clinton’s affair with a White House intern. Voters didn’t want to risk losing economic prosperity over matters of sexual misconduct when they knew Republicans were just as bad.
Sexual misconduct as a political wedge issue backfired on Republicans in 1998, and it is going to backfire on Democrats in 2018.
Thanks to historic economic expansion, the number of gerrymandered GOP-friendly districts, old-school, baggage-laden, out-of-touch establishment Democrats like Bill and Hillary Clinton motivating conservative women to vote in record numbers, along with President Trump’s high job approval among conservatives thanks to a promises kept agenda including a 5-4 conservative US Supreme Court, Republicans will hold their majorities in Washington DC and Raleigh on November 7, 2018.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Speech “Two Waves and a Seawall” … Schedule John Davis to speak at your 2018-2019 meetings.
“Your presentation at the [September 7] 2018 NC CCIM State Conference in Asheville was captivating. As usual, you were able to bring perspective to the upcoming mid-year elections by providing everyone in the room something to think and talk about. Our membership spans a plethora of political viewpoints, and your presentation caters to everyone. Your ability to inform an audience without bias is striking and one of the reasons we continue to invite you back. Thank you for another great political overview for the commercial real estate industry.”
Beverly Keith, 2018 NC CCIM President
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here
Odds 96% US Supreme Court will be 5-4 Conservative with Two Trump Picks Approved by Republican US Senate October 1, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 16 7:13 am Only Twice Since 1914 Has a Party Won 80% of US Senate Races Whether embattled US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed or not, political history overwhelmingly
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Odds 96% US Supreme Court will be 5-4 Conservative with Two Trump Picks Approved by Republican US Senate
October 1, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 16 7:13 am
Only Twice Since 1914 Has a Party Won 80% of US Senate Races
Whether embattled US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed or not, political history overwhelmingly argues for the likelihood of a 5-4 conservative Court.
A new analysis titled The Senate: How 2018 Sets Up 2020, published on the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics website on September 27, 2018, notes the following compelling facts:
- Only twice in the history of US Senate popular elections (since 1914) has a party won 80% of the US Senate races: the 1932 Franklin Roosevelt landslide election (Great Depression era), and the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide election after President Kennedy’s assassination.
- In order to net two (2) additional seats needed to seize the US Senate majority in 2018, Democrats must win 28 of the 35 contested seats (80%).
- Democrats are disadvantaged in 2018 by the fact that they hold 26 of the 35 US Senate seats being contested, with 10 of the 26 Democrats running in states carried by Trump.
For emphasis: Only twice in the last 104 years (52 election cycles) has a political party won 80% of the US Senate races in any single election year; never in a midterm election year. That means the odds are 96% the US Supreme Court will be 5-4 conservative with two of President Trump’s nominees.
Since 1917, the first Monday in October has been the date for the beginning of the new term of the United States Supreme Court. Today, because the nation is so passionately divided over the suitability of President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the following traditional words shouted by the marshal at the opening of the court have profound meaning:
“Oyez! Oyez! Oyez! All persons having business before the Honorable, the Supreme Court of the United States, are admonished to draw near and give their attention, for the Court is now sitting. God save the United States and this Honorable Court.”
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political ReportJohn N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Speech “Two Waves and a Seawall” … Schedule John Davis to speak at your 2018-2019 meetings.
“Your presentation at the [September 7] 2018 NC CCIM State Conference in Asheville was captivating. As usual, you were able to bring perspective to the upcoming mid-year elections by providing everyone in the room something to think and talk about. Our membership spans a plethora of political viewpoints, and your presentation caters to everyone. Your ability to inform an audience without bias is striking and one of the reasons we continue to invite you back. Thank you for another great political overview for the commercial real estate industry.”
Beverly Keith, 2018 NC CCIM President
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Two Waves and a Seawall: Democratic Blue Wave Not Likely to Breach the Trump/GOP Seawall Until 2020 August 31, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 15 10:13 am Labor Day Forecast: GOP Holds Congress and NC General Assembly I see two political waves on the horizon. One, farther out, is a generational wave that is about to
[More…]
Two Waves and a Seawall: Democratic Blue Wave Not Likely to Breach the Trump/GOP Seawall Until 2020
August 31, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 15 10:13 am
Labor Day Forecast: GOP Holds Congress and NC General Assembly
I see two political waves on the horizon. One, farther out, is a generational wave that is about to sweep the nation of aging leaders in both parties. That’s the wave likely to swamp Republicans in 2020. As for the 2018 Democratic blue wave, it’s not likely to breach the Trump/GOP seawall because of historic economic expansion, President Trump’s job approval among Republicans, gerrymandered GOP-friendly districts, a bitter, out-of-touch Democratic establishment, and a political backlash against anti-Trump collusion among senior Obama Administration FBI officials.
Why is the generational wave likely to swamp Republicans in 2020? Because every study shows that emerging generations are far more progressive than their parents and grandparents.
Per Pew Research, six-in-ten Millennial voters (born since about 1980) are more likely to vote Democratic, which includes independents who lean Democratic. Among young women, 70% are more likely to vote Democratic.
As to Millennials social and economic policy leanings, per Gallup interviews this summer:
- 51% of 18-29-year-olds view socialism positively (45% view capitalism positively)
- Only 28% of 65+ year-olds view socialism positively (60% view capitalism positively)
About 9-in-10 of America’s young adults live in urban areas, according to Pew, where all voters are 2-to-1 (62%/31%) more likely to vote for Democrats. That fact has growing political significance in North Carolina, now projected to be among the 8 states with ½ of the country’s population by 2040.
Hence, 2020 offers a big opportunity for Democrats to recover politically in Washington, DC and in Raleigh. But first, Democrats have to get rid of their bitter, 20th Century-centric establishment leaders who still see racism, sexism and xenophobia as the primary motives of President Trump’s “deplorable” supporters; Democrats who blame everyone but themselves for losing the White House.
Blue Wave Weakened by Bitterness and Corruption
Bitterness over the loss of the 2016 presidential race to Donald Trump is weakening the Democratic blue wave. Bitterness keeps you focused on the negative. The vendetta.
Hillary Clinton told an audience in Mumbai, India in March 2018 that the white women who voted for Donald Trump did so because of “… an ongoing pressure to vote the way your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should.”
After the mid-July 2018 meeting in Helsinki between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, John Brennan, President Obama’s CIA Director from 2013-2017, tweeted that Trump’s performance “rises to & exceeds the threshold of ‘high crimes & misdemeanors.’ It was nothing short of treasonous.”
After President Trump stated that the April 2018 firing of Andrew McCabe, former Deputy Director of the FBI, was “A great day for Democracy,” Brennan tweeted, “When the full extent of your venality, moral turpitude, and political corruption becomes known, you will take your rightful place as a disgraced demagogue in the dustbin of history.”
Bitterness towards President Trump by Democrats like Hillary Clinton and John Brennan is weakening the Democratic blue wave. Also weakening the Democratic blue wave is the growing scandal among Obama Administration DOJ and FBI senior officials caught meddling in the presidential race.
Corrupt DOJ and FBI senior officials discredit the legitimate investigatory work being done by the upright FBI agents and Special Prosecutors like Robert Mueller. Too many FBI senior leaders already fired like FBI Director James Comey, Assistant FBI Director Andrew McCabe, and FBI Chief of Counterespionage Peter Strzok.
Corruption at the DOJ and the FBI renders the results of investigations on the Trump campaign politically useless to Democrats. It’s like offsetting penalties in a football game. One side throws a punch. The other side throws a punch. Offsetting penalties.
Bitterness and corruption are weakening the Democratic blue wave at the same time the Trump/GOP seawall is getting higher and higher.
Trump’s Job Approval Net +8 Over 2017; Base Solid at 85%
Overall, President Trump’s job approval average is 44%; significantly higher than a year ago.
In August 2017, according to the Real Clear Politics website, there were 25 polls conducted nationwide that asked voters whether they approved or disapproved of the job that President Trump was doing. The average of those 25 polls last August was 38.96% “Approve;” 56.16% “Disapprove.”
This August, there have been 22 polls conducted nationally on President Trump’s job approval, showing an average of 43.8% “Approve,” 52.6% “Disapprove.” That’s a net gain of 8 points over 2017.
Now, a positive 8-point swing to 44% job approval might not sound like a reliable predictor of whether Trump will have a positive impact on Republican candidates in 2018. However, consider this: President Obama’s job approval at the same time in 2010 was 45%, according to Gallup, but falling from 53% on Labor Day 2009 to 45% on Labor Day 2010. A negative trendline is ominous.
Obama’s trendline was negative on the eve of his first midterm exam. Trump’s trendline is positive.
Democrats stayed home in big numbers in 2010 because, as the job approval trendline shows, they lost confidence in their own leaders. President Obama made the politically disastrous mistake of putting healthcare over what was most important to voters during the aftermath of the worst recession since the Great Depression; jobs and the economy.
Not only is President Trump’s trendline positive among all voters, but his job approval among Republicans is 85%. If midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, this president is on track to have a favorable score on his midterm exam.
That’s because Trump is all about getting things done.
Seawall Built on Foundation of Disruption & Promises Kept
The foundation of the Trump/GOP defensive seawall is President Trump’s disruptiveness. It’s why his voters elected him. To drain the swamp. The federal establishment, including the Republican establishment. The powerful Obama administration and Hillary Clinton campaign insiders. All who have rigged the federal government to benefit the privileged few; those who have enriched themselves.
President Trump was also elected to disrupt the establishment news media who years ago discredited themselves when they picked a side in the partisan competition for power in the nation’s capital. Discrediting themselves long before Donald Trump went on his “Fake News” tear.
Thanks to a year-and-a-half of disruptiveness and keeping campaign promises by getting things done that his voters wanted, the Trump base is solidly in his corner and likely to turn out this fall to ensure that the President will have two more years of support from a GOP-majority Congress.
From his first day in office, President Trump has been loyal to his base. Signing executive orders overturning President Obama’s executive orders. Eliminating 22 regulations for every one new one. Appointing conservatives to the federal judiciary.
The Keystone pipeline and Dakota Access pipeline. Drilling and mining on public land. Peace through strength military strategy. Defeating ISIS in 90% of its territory.
Leading the successful passage of a bipartisan budget act that included $165 billion for the military. Sanctions against Russia for cyber-attacks and election meddling. Missile strikes against Syria for using chemical weapons against their own people.
Renegotiating defense agreements with the United Nations and trade agreements around the world. Household income at an all-time high.
An historic first, 6.7 million jobs available and 6.3 million unemployed workers. GDP at over 4%. Longest ever bull market run by the S&P 500. Millions of new jobs and record unemployment among Hispanics and African-Americans.
Tax cuts, both personal and corporate. Repatriation of hundreds of billions of dollars of corporate profits parked overseas in foreign banks because of high interest rates in the United States.
So, while bitter Democrats seek revenge, the Trump/GOP seawall is getting higher and higher.
Thanks to historic economic expansion, President Trump’s job approval among Republicans, gerrymandered GOP-friendly districts, a bitter, out-of-touch Democratic establishment, and a political backlash against anti-Trump collusion among senior Obama Administration FBI officials, Republicans are likely to hold their majorities in both the US Congress and the North Carolina General Assembly.
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John N. Davis
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In 1987, Donald Trump Paid $94,801 for a Newspaper Ad Critical of Allies for Not Paying Fair Share for Defense July 10, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 14 3:13 pm “The United States is being ripped off.” At 5:35 AM this morning, July 10, 2018, as he prepared to depart for Europe, President Trump tweeted, “Getting
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In 1987, Donald Trump Paid $94,801 for a Newspaper Ad Critical of Allies for Not Paying Fair Share for Defense
July 10, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 14 3:13 pm
“The United States is being ripped off.”
At 5:35 AM this morning, July 10, 2018, as he prepared to depart for Europe, President Trump tweeted, “Getting ready to leave for Europe. First meeting – NATO. The U.S. is spending many times more than any other country in order to protect them. Not fair to the U.S. taxpayer. On top of that we lose $151 billion on Trade with the European Union. Charge us big Tariffs (and Barriers)!
At 6:42 AM this morning, President Trump reiterated the point in another tweet, “NATO countries must pay MORE, the United States must pay LESS. Very Unfair!
A fight with allies over the fairness of foreign trade deficits and foreign defense costs is a fight Donald Trump has wanted to have for over 30 years.
On September 2, 1987, Manhattan’s real estate developer Donald J. Trump spent $94,801 for a full-page ad in the New York Times, the Boston Globe and the Washington Post with the heading, There’s nothing wrong with America’s foreign and defense policy that a little backbone can’t cure. The subheading read, An open letter from Donald J Trump on why America should stop paying to defend countries that can afford to defend themselves.”
Writing in 1987, then about Japan and Saudi Arabia, Donald J. Trump the Manhattan real estate developer used the very language President Trump uses today:
- “Japan and other nations have been taking advantage of the United States.”
- “Why are these nations not paying the United States for the human lives and billions of dollars we are losing to protect their interests?”
Donald Trump ended the letter with the appeal, “Let America’s economy grow unencumbered by the cost of defending those who can easily afford to pay us for the defense of their freedom.”
That was the ad that fueled speculation that Donald Trump may be interested in running for political office. The New York Times wrote a story on the same day, September 2, 1987, TRUMP GIVES A VAGUE HINT OF CANDIDACY, stating that Trump told them that he was not interested in running for political office in New York, “but indicated that the presidency was another matter.”
From that day forward, every interview that Donald Trump gave he was asked, Have you ever thought about running for president of the United States? All the big TV interview personalities of the day asked Donald Trump if he had ever thought about running for president. Larry King in 1987. Oprah Winfrey in 1988. Charlie Rose. Barbara Walters. Mike Wallace with 60 Minutes.
What was the common theme in all of Donald Trump’s interviews about global relationships? Per Trump, the United States is being “ripped off” by countries who can afford to pay more.
That’s what President Trump’s trip to Europe is all about. Confronting trading and defense partners about fairness. A conversation that carries great political risks.
Will July Political Risks Abroad Wipe Out June Political Gains?
June was a very good month politically for President Trump and Republicans, considering:
- Most of the economic news in June was positive
- Most of the Supreme Court decisions in June were favorable to Trump (Religion, Labor, Redistricting, Travel Ban)
- Most of Trump’s picks won their primary races
- Trump/Kim summit on North Korean denuclearization was well received globally
- DOJ Inspector General’s report showed inappropriate anti-Trump bias at the FBI
July is off to a great start for President Trump politically with the opportunity to appoint another member of the U.S. Supreme Court upon the retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy.
But this month, July, is full of political risks for the President and his party.
Taking on foreign countries, as the president is doing during this trip to Europe, over trade disputes and the cost of global defense is high-risk politics. And then there are the ongoing matters of denuclearization of North Korea and Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. The border.
As for President Trump, a fight with allies over foreign trade deficits and foreign defense costs is a fight he has been preparing for ever since he spent that $94,801 in 1987 for that full-page newspaper ad with the subheading that read, An open letter from Donald J Trump on why America should stop paying to defend countries that can afford to defend themselves.
As to whether he is prepared for his meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin next Monday, July 16, President Trump told an audience at a rally in Montana last week, “I’ve been preparing for this stuff my whole life.”
We shall soon see.
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Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
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North Carolina General Assembly Maps Now Fixed for Fall Races with Major GOP Advantage in Friendly Districts June 29, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 13 7:13 am Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering Still the Law of the Land North Carolina Republicans will begin the fall state legislative races with a major advantage in the number of friendly districts,
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North Carolina General Assembly Maps Now Fixed for Fall Races with Major GOP Advantage in Friendly Districts
June 29, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 13 7:13 am
Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering Still the Law of the Land
North Carolina Republicans will begin the fall state legislative races with a major advantage in the number of friendly districts, all thanks to this week’s U.S. Supreme Court rulings upholding the standard for fairness established by Democrats during the 20th Century.
The Democratic standard for fairness? Extreme partisan gerrymandering.
So, are the North Carolina maps finally fixed for fall 2018 races? Yes.
As of Thursday, June 28, 2018, an 8-1 U.S. Supreme Court ruling secured North Carolina’s legislative maps as currently drawn for the fall. Per the Associated Press, “It means the districts used to elect nominees in the May primary should be the ones used in the November general election, and no special candidacy filing periods and elections are required.”
Finally, it’s done. Advantage Republicans.
Liberal Daily Kos Says New Districts Almost as Bad for Democrats as Old
So, just how big is the Republican advantage among the 170 state legislative districts in 2018?
For starters, the GOP has a 35-15 Senate supermajority, but only needs 26 wins for majority control. It is virtually impossible to find 11 opportunity districts for Democrats to flip in the Senate to take the majority. Ending the GOP supermajority with a net gain of 6 Senate seats is a more reasonable goal.
Democrats face the same practically insurmountable challenge on the House side, where the GOP enjoys a 75-45 supermajority. Republicans only need to hold 61 of their 75 seats to keep majority control. Finding 16 opportunity districts on a Republican-drawn map needed for a Democratic majority is virtually impossible. Whereas, ending the GOP supermajority only takes a net gain of 4 House seats.
Per an April 16, 2018 study by Daily Kos, a liberal blog and internet forum, Thanks to Backdoor GOP Gerrymander, North Carolina’s New Maps Are Almost as Bad as the Old Ones, “North Carolina’s state Senate has the ninth-strongest GOP lean in the country, while its state House ranks fourth—and first among potentially competitive chambers.”
Noting that President Trump carried the state by 50.5% to Hillary Clinton’s 46.8%, the study’s author, Jeff Singer, points out that the net difference in the total seats won by both candidates under the new maps versus the old maps in North Carolina is, “exactly zero seats.”
“Breaking the GOP’s veto-proof three-fifths supermajorities in either chamber is still going to be a major challenge for Democrats,” concludes Jeff Singer with the Daily Kos, “Much less actually gaining control of the legislature.”
Reuters Says Minnesota Only State where Democrats Can Flip Legislature
A new 10-state study by Reuters [that includes North Carolina] of legislative turnover opportunities, released June 16, 2018, draws the following conclusion: “Only one state, Minnesota, has enough Republican-held districts won by Clinton to flip a legislative chamber.”
The value of using Republican-held districts won by Clinton as a measure of opportunities for Democrats can be seen in the 2017 Virginia House of Delegates election results, where Democrats flipped 15 seats from Republicans. However, 14 of the 15 were carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Reuters combed through 1,500 legislative districts in North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin, looking for seats held by Republicans from districts carried by Hillary Clinton. Only Minnesota proved promising.
Thanks to the GOP takeover of two-thirds of the legislative chambers in 2010, Republicans throughout the nation seized the opportunity to gain an advantage through extreme partisan gerrymandering. North Carolina Republicans, who had not had a majority in both the state Senate and House of Representatives since 1896, took full advantage of the opportunity.
NCFEF Analysis Confirms Few Republicans in Clinton Districts
In North Carolina, per Jonathan Kappler, Executive Director of NCFEF and one of the state’s leading authorities on legislative districts, there are only a handful of seats held by Republicans from districts carried by Hillary Clinton. Kappler writes:
- “According to our data, there are three NC Senate districts won by Hillary Clinton and are currently GOP-held: Senate 19 (Meredith), 27 (Wade), and 41 (Tarte).”
- “No NC Senate districts won by President Trump that are currently Democratic-held.”
- “4 NC House districts won by Hillary Clinton and are currently GOP-held: House 25 (Collins, but it’s an open seat race as he’s retiring), House 57 (Blust, but it’s an open seat race as he’s retiring), House 104 (Dulin), and House 105 (Stone).”
- “5 NC House districts won by President Trump and are currently Democratic-held: House 7 (Bobbie Richardson), 12 (George Graham), 21 (Larry Bell, but it’s an open seat race as he’s retiring), 66 (Goodman), and 116 (Turner).”
Nationally, Democrats are understandably encouraged by flipping 43 state legislative seats to their side of the aisle since President Trump took office. However, 43 seats are not an indication of a “wave.”
Wave election years are distinguished by the large number of incumbents defeated.
Example: Republicans flipped a net of 680 legislative seats in 2010, defeating 492 Democratic incumbents (only 15 GOP incumbents lost), and winning 729 Open Seats to 449 for the Democrats.
- In 2010, a total of 1,733 new state legislators were elected in the United States, with Republicans electing 1,266 newcomers to 467 Democratic newcomers.
- Republicans enjoyed a net gain of 20 legislative chambers in 2010, from 33 to 53.
That’s what a wave election year looks like. Incumbents defeated in big numbers.
Thanks to extreme partisan gerrymandering by Republicans after the 2010 census, the opportunities for Democrats to defeat incumbents, especially in North Carolina, are severely limited in 2018.
Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. Denuclearization and reunification of Korean peninsula. FBI and DOJ scandals. Another conservative Supreme Court nominee likely. All building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
Meanwhile, as of Thursday, June 28, 2018, an 8-1 U.S. Supreme Court ruling secured North Carolina’s legislative maps as currently drawn for the fall. Advantage Republicans.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
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Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
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Solid Conservative U.S. Supreme Court Now Probable in 2018 Following Justice Anthony Kennedy’s July Retirement June 27, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 12 4:13 pm U.S. Supreme Court Justice Kennedy to Resign July 31 U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy made a surprise announcement today of his intention to retire July 31, opening the opportunity for
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Solid Conservative U.S. Supreme Court Now Probable in 2018 Following Justice Anthony Kennedy’s July Retirement
June 27, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 12 4:13 pm
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Kennedy to Resign July 31
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy made a surprise announcement today of his intention to retire July 31, opening the opportunity for President Trump to solidify a conservative advantage on the nation’s highest court this year.
Kennedy, nominated by President Ronald Reagan in 1988, was often the court’s swing vote. He cast the deciding votes on many controversial decisions including the constitutional right to same-sex marriage, and Citizens United, the decision giving unlimited free speech rights to groups making independent expenditures during political campaigns.
It was also Kennedy who often sided with conservatives, like many of the rulings this month:
- June 4: Colorado baker, who refused to make a wedding cake for a gay couple, has a constitutional right to have his religion treated with impartiality by government
- June 18: “Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering” cases in Wisconsin and Maryland “punted” back to lower courts
- June 21: OK’d sales taxes on online purchases (NC losing $400 M yearly per NCRMA)
- June 25: “Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering” case in NC “punted” back to lower courts
- June 26: Pro-life crisis pregnancy centers cannot be forced to provide information re: taxpayer-funded abortions
- June 26: Trump’s Travel Ban on 7 mostly-Muslim countries upheld on president’s right to secure borders
- June 27: Can’t force government employees to pay union dues
The U.S. Supreme Court currently consists of a four-member liberal wing (Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Sotomayor), and four conservatives (Alito, Roberts, Thomas, Gorsuch).
Kennedy, 81-years-old, is leaving the court at about the average age of retirement from the court, which is 79-years-old. Two other justices are near or past the average retirement threshold: Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal, 84, and Stephen Breyer, also a liberal, 79.
If Republicans hold on to the U.S. Senate majority in 2018, President Trump may have an opportunity to replace a liberal member of the court with a conservative. Regardless, the social and political consequences of a solid 5-4 conservative court will be as disruptive as it will be transformative for decades to come.
A conservative U.S. Supreme Court will be able to trump all liberals on lower courts.
Conservative Supreme Court Will Trump Lower Court Liberals
As important as the Supreme Court is, they only hear 70-80 cases a year out of 7,000-8,000 requests, issuing 50-60 opinions. Most of the heavy lifting at the federal level is done in the U.S. District courts (673 district judgeships) and the U.S. Courts of Appeals (179 circuit judgeships), where 350,000-400,000 cases are being managed at any given time.
According to The Brookings Institution:
- In 2009, at the beginning of the Obama administration, Republican appointees held 56% of the federal circuit court judgeships to only 36% held by Democratic appointees (8% vacant)
- In 2016, after 55 confirmed Obama nominees, Republican appointees made up only 42% of the federal circuit court judgeships to 53% held by Democratic appointees
- In January 2009, 10-of-13 U.S. Circuit Courts of Appeals had Republican-majority appointees to only 1 Democratic-majority court; no majority on 2 courts
- In January 2016, only 4-of-13 U.S. Circuit Appeals courts had Republican-majority appointees to 9 Democratic-majority circuit courts
Now, with the resignation of Justice Kennedy and a solid 5-4 conservative bloc on the court likely, the next Supreme Court will routinely thwart the lower court rulings of liberal Democratic appointees.
Kennedy’s resignation makes it all the more imperative that both parties make winning the majority in the U.S. Senate their most important goal this fall.
Although historically, the first midterm elections during a new presidential administration do not favor the party in the White House, the GOP structural advantage in the U.S. Senate races in 2018 will be a formidable challenge for Democrats:
- Democrats are defending 25 seats, 10 in states Trump won
- Republicans are defending 9 seats, 8 in states Trump won
Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. Denuclearization and reunification of Korean peninsula. FBI and DOJ scandals. Another conservative Supreme Court nominee likely. All building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
Without a doubt, June is on track to become the most consequential month of the election year.
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Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.