JUNE 19 UPDATE: June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea June 19, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 11 11:13 am World is safer thanks to two of the “worst leaders” It’s hard to believe, but it was only a week ago, Tuesday, June 12, 2018, that President Trump and
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JUNE 19 UPDATE: June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea
June 19, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 11 11:13 am
World is safer thanks to two of the “worst leaders”
It’s hard to believe, but it was only a week ago, Tuesday, June 12, 2018, that President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made history by shaking hands in Singapore. People throughout the world are encouraged that there will be denuclearization and reunification of the Korean Peninsula.
As to political value, the event was spectacular. Even liberal news sources like The Atlantic published positive stories about the handshake seen around the globe.
Peter Beinart, contributing editor at The Atlantic and an associate professor of journalism and political science at the City University of New York, in a story titled, Why Can’t Democrats Give Trump Credit on North Korea?, wrote, “So, painful as it is, Democrats should give Trump the credit that, in this rare instance, he is due. In Singapore, two of the worst leaders in modern history met. And they made the world a safer place.”
Satisfaction with direction of country driving up Trump’s job approval
Bold leadership on the world stage along with record economic expansion and low unemployment at home are having a positive impact on President Trump’s job approval, a powerful predictor of the midterm elections referendum on the White House. Per Gallup’s June 18 national survey release:
1) Satisfaction with U.S. Direction Reaches 12-Year High, showing increase since Mar/Apr in positive views among voters, especially Republicans (up 14%) and Independents (up 11%)
a. Satisfaction credited to second longest economic expansion in U.S. history
b. Record low unemployment (3.8% in May)
c. President Trump’s negotiations with North Korea2) Trump Job Approval at 45%, (Tying Personal Best):
a. Trumps previous 45% rating occurred first week after inauguration
b. 90% of Republicans approve of Trump’s leadership
c. 42% of Independents approve; 10% of Democrats approve
Political Implications: The successful summit with North Korea along with record economic expansion and low unemployment are adding height to the Trump-GOP defensive seawall against an ever-weakening Democratic political wave.
Political Bombshell: “We’ll stop it,” Peter Strzok replied
NOTE: I only look at the political implications of events, leaving the policy debates to others. With that said, the political value of the FBI’s lapse of integrity at the highest levels of leadership disclosed in the Inspector General’s report cannot be overstated. It will be used throughout 2018 to politically discredit any and all FBI investigations.
On Thursday, June 14, Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz released his report on the FBI and DOJ’s handling of the Clinton email investigation, giving President Trump and the GOP everything needed to politically discredit Robert Mueller’s investigation into the Trump campaign.
Select quotes from the report:
“(Trump’s) not ever going to become president, right? Right?!” asked FBI agent, Lisa Page. “No. No he’s not. We’ll stop it,” Peter Strzok replied.
Peter Strzok’s text “is not only indicative of a biased state of mind but, even more seriously, implies a willingness to take official action to impact the presidential candidate’s electoral prospects.”
“We have profound concerns about the volume and extent of unauthorized media contacts by FBI personnel that we have uncovered.”
“We identified instances where FBI employees improperly received benefits from reporters, including tickets to sporting events, golfing outings, drinks and meals, and admittance to nonpublic social events.”
The Inspector General’s report not only gives President Trump a means to politically discredit Robert Mueller’s investigation as a “Witch hunt,” but also a means to discredit the liberal media as “Fake news.” Trading FBI leaks for tickets to “sporting events, golfing outings, drinks and meals” plays right into President Trump’s strength in discrediting his opponents in the mainstream news media.
Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. Denuclearization and reunification of Korean peninsula. FBI and DOJ scandals. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
Politically, June is on track to become the most consequential month of the midterm election year.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
JUNE 11 UPDATE: New SCOTUS Decision, North Korea, IG’s Report Thursday, Only One Woman Can Destroy Trump June 11, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 10 4:13 pm U.S. Supreme Court OK’s conservative Ohio procedure for purging voters In another big judicial win for Republican election law reformers, the US Supreme Court ruled 5-4 today, June
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JUNE 11 UPDATE: New SCOTUS Decision, North Korea, IG’s Report Thursday, Only One Woman Can Destroy Trump
June 11, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 10 4:13 pm
U.S. Supreme Court OK’s conservative Ohio procedure for purging voters
In another big judicial win for Republican election law reformers, the US Supreme Court ruled 5-4 today, June 11, 2018, that an Ohio policy for purging the state voter registration rolls of those who do not vote over a six-year period does not violate the rights of minorities, poor people and others who more often favor Democratic candidates, as claimed by plaintiffs, including the ACLU.
Per today’s Washington Post, nationally, “about 17.6% of Democrats missed the last three elections, compared to about 10.3% of Republicans.” That’s about 6 million more Democrats than Republicans who did not vote in 2012, 2014 or 2016.
The two key steps in Ohio’s six-year procedure for purging voter rolls are:
- Registered voters who miss voting for two years are sent voter registration confirmation notices and given four additional years to reply.
- If they do not reply or vote during the next four years, they are removed.
Justice Anthony Kennedy, the court’s swing vote, joined the four conservatives in the 5-4 decision. Writing for the majority, Justice Samuel Alito said that although the Ohio procedure may not be ideal, the only matter before the court was whether it violates federal law. “It does not,” concluded Alito.
POLTICIAL IMPLICATIONS: Increases turnout advantage for GOP in 2018.
Last Monday’s big win for conservatives was the U.S. Supreme Court 7-2 decision in favor of a Colorado baker who refused to make a wedding cake for a same-sex couple because of his Christian convictions. The court stated that the religious beliefs of the baker were not treated with impartiality and neutrality by the Colorado Civil Rights Commission, in violation of his constitutional rights.
June 11-15: Trump-Kim Historic Summit 9 PM Tonight! IG Report Thursday
At 9 PM tonight, Eastern Standard Time, it will be 9 AM in Singapore, the hour that President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The stakes could not be higher.
POLTICIAL IMPLICATIONS: If President Trump does succeed in the denuclearization of North Korea during the coming months, his job approval will likely reach 50% by Labor Day, adding great height to his seawall of success in defense against the threat of a Democratic wave in November.
COMING THURSDAY, JUNE 14: DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report on the mishandling of the Hillary Clinton email probe is due Thursday (President Trump’s birthday).
Last Tuesday, fired former Deputy Director of the FBI, Andrew McCabe, sought immunity from prosecution for his testimony before a U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee on how the FBI handled the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server. McCabe’s petition for immunity signals that other senior officials at the FBI during the Obama Administration abused positions of authority.
Look for widening probes into Obama Justice Department leaders, including North Carolina’s own Loretta Lynch, U.S. Attorney General 2015-2017, the first African American woman in that role.
POLITICIAL IMPLICATIONS: This issue has the potential of energizing a GOP red wave, offsetting the highly touted Democratic blue wave. At the very least, the IG report will give President Trump enough Twitter ammunition to discredit Mueller’s investigation throughout the fall elections.
There is only one woman who can bring down the Trump Administration
On Monday, June 4, former President Bill Clinton opened old wounds with his defensive answers to a reporter questions about whether, considering today’s #MeToo movement, he adequately apologized to Monica Lewinski for exploiting her sexually when she was a 21-year-old White House intern.
Bill Clinton’s history of sexual exploitation, including allegations of criminal abuse (rape claimed by Juanita Broaddrick), became the talk of the TV/Radio chattering class, who also renewed questions about Hillary Clinton’s role in enabling her husband to get away with exploiting women.
Clearly, Democrats and had hoped to bring down the Trump Administration with ads about the President’s extramarital affairs with porn stars and Playboy bunnies. Unfortunately, there are too many Democrats like Bill Clinton and Anthony Wiener, along with hundreds of others exposed by the #MeToo movement like Harvey Weinstein, to claim a partisan moral high ground on sexual abuse.
Ironically, the #MeToo movement validated the claims of women who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, despite his history of disrespecting women, because they knew that many Democrats were as bad.
Last Tuesday, June 5, Harvey Weinstein, leading Democrat fundraiser, pleaded not guilty to charges of rape and sexual assault. He has been accused by over 70 women of sexual misconduct.
POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF TRUMP’S AFFAIRS: None. There is only one woman who can destroy the Trump presidency over extramarital improprieties: First Lady Melania Trump.
Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. North Korean denuclearization and reunification with South Korea. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
Politically, June is on track to become the most consequential month of the midterm election year.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
JUNE 4 UPDATE: June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea June 4, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 9 4:13 pm U.S. Supreme Court rules “hostility” towards Christians unconstitutional in favor of Colorado baker who refused to bake wedding cake for gay couple The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-to-2 today
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JUNE 4 UPDATE: June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea
June 4, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 9 4:13 pm
U.S. Supreme Court rules “hostility” towards Christians unconstitutional in favor of Colorado baker who refused to bake wedding cake for gay couple
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-to-2 today in favor of a Christian baker in Lakewood, Colorado, who refused to make a wedding cake for a same-sex couple because of his religious convictions. The court stated that the religious beliefs of the owner of Masterpiece Cakeshop, Jack Phillips, were not treated with impartiality by the Colorado Civil Rights Commission, which ruled earlier that he had discriminated against the gay couple.
Here are key points:
- Colorado Civil Rights Commission violated the baker’s First Amendment religious rights by “showing hostility” towards the baker’s religious beliefs;
- Colorado Civil Rights Commission was “neither tolerant nor respectful of his religious beliefs,” and instead, “showed animus” towards the baker, thereby violating the baker’s rights.
Liberal justices Stephen Breyer and Elena Kagan joined the four conservative justices, along with Justice Anthony Kennedy, a swing vote, in the 7-2 decision.
Liberal justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor were the two dissenting justices.
FOR EMPHASIS: The U.S. Supreme Court DID NOT RULE that a baker has a constitutional right to refuse service to a gay couple. The court ruled that Christian bakers have a constitutional right to have their religious beliefs treated with impartiality and neutrality by the government.
Writing for the court, Justice Anthony Kennedy said that the larger issue of the constitutionality of the right to refuse a service to a gay couple based on religious convictions “must await further elaboration” in the courts. Many such cases are pending.
POLITCIAL IMPLICATIONS: Politically, this is a major win for religious conservatives who have long felt that the federal judiciary and other government officials have not respected their right to faith-based business practices.
Democrats and Republicans can use this issue to motivate their base to vote this fall in the 34 U.S. Senate races (25 Democratic seats; 9 Republican seats). The next class of U.S. Senators is very likely to have an opportunity to confirm another U.S. Supreme Court justice.
There is real, long-term political danger for Democrats to be associated with the “impermissible hostility” and “animus” of the far-left wing of the party (including judges) towards people of faith. That is especially true in North Carolina, ranked by Gallup as 8th in the nation in the percentage of residents who say they are “Very Religious.”
June is busiest month of the year for primaries and SCOTUS decisions
June is the busiest month of the year when it comes to the political elections calendar, with 17 states holding primary races. By comparison, there are none in July. However, 16 states have primaries in August. There are five more in September. Here is the June list:
- June 5: California, Montana, N Jersey, Alabama, S Dakota, Mississippi, N Mexico and Iowa
- June 12: North Dakota, Virginia, Nevada, South Carolina, Maine
- June 19: Washington, DC
- June 26: Utah, Colorado, Maryland, Oklahoma
June is the final month of this term of the U.S. Supreme Court. Major decisions are coming.
SCOTUS to decide Trump travel ban and “extreme partisan gerrymandering”
Other major U.S. Supreme Court decisions coming in June:
- EXTREME PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING: Is it constitutional for the legislative majority in a state that is roughly 50%/50% Republicans and Democrats to draw their party a 75%/25% “extreme partisan advantage” in the number of friendly congressional districts?
- TRUMP TRAVEL BAN: Do presidents have the constitutional authority under U.S. immigration laws to ban travelers from countries where terrorist activity is heavily concentrated, even if all the countries banned are predominantly Muslim?
Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. North Korean denuclearization and reunification with South Korea. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
But, that could all change in June.
Politically, June is on track to become the most consequential month of the midterm election year.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea Talks May 31, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 8 11:13 am Hang on to your hats, June is going to be a wild ride! Hang on to your hats, ladies and gentlemen, June is going to be a wild political ride. Every
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June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea Talks
May 31, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 8 11:13 am
Hang on to your hats, June is going to be a wild ride!
Hang on to your hats, ladies and gentlemen, June is going to be a wild political ride.
Every single week in June, major U.S. Supreme Court decisions will be announced. Every Tuesday in June, primaries will be held. Globally significant talks between the U.S. and North Korea are in June.
In June, we will likely see more indictments resulting from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into whether the Trump campaign colluded with the Russian government during the 2016 presidential race. But will the June indictments be close enough to home to have any political fallout?
I doubt it. After all, Mueller already announced in April that President Trump was not a criminal target in the investigation. And then there is this: Jared Kushner’s full security clearance was restored (after 7-hours with Mueller team) in May. Ivanka Trump’s full security clearance was restored in May.
We will also likely see a report in June by Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz critical of how the FBI handled the Hillary Clinton email investigation. That report will give President Trump all the Twitter ammunition he needs to discredit the Justice Department and the FBI, offsetting any political fallout from the Russian collusion probe.
By the way, a hearing has been scheduled by the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee for June 5 at 10 AM titled, “Examining the Inspector General’s First Report on Justice Department Decisions Regarding the 2016 Presidential Election.”
May was a Positive Month for the Trump Referendum
May turned out to be a great month for the president. Here are some of the highlights:
- Gallup announced that 67% Americans say now is good time to find good job (only 45% during Obama Administration and 47% during GW Bush Administration)
- CBS News poll showed 68% of Americans credit Trump for economy
- Trump’s Real Clear Politics 44% “Job Approval” (respectable/trending upward)
- Unemployment dropped to 3.9%, lowest in 17 years
- African-American and Hispanic unemployment set record lows
- Gina Haspel sworn in as first woman to head CIA
- US opened embassy in Jerusalem
- Three Americans were released from North Korean prisons
- American Josh Holt was released from prison in Venezuela
- Jack Johnson (1878-1946), first black heavyweight champ, was pardoned
- Signed executive orders rolling back civil service protections
- Porn star Stormy Daniels and her lawyer lost credibility
And of course, the U.S.- North Korean Summit on denuclearization and Korean reunification was put back on track for June 12. We will also see the busiest month for primaries in June.
Busiest month of the year for primaries and SCOTUS decisions
June is busiest month of the year when it comes to the political elections calendar, with 17 states holding primary races. By comparison, there are none in July. However, 16 states have primaries in August. There are five more in September. Here is the June list:
- June 5: California, Montana, N Jersey, Alabama, S Dakota, Mississippi, N Mexico and Iowa
- June 12: North Dakota, Virginia, Nevada, South Carolina, Maine
- June 19: Washington, DC
- June 26: Utah, Colorado, Maryland, Oklahoma
June is the final month of this term of the U.S. Supreme Court. Major decisions coming in June include everything from abortion and religious freedom to reapportionment and President Trump’s travel ban. Decisions that will impact the fall elections, especially the U.S. Senate races.
SCOTUS to decide Trump travel ban and LGBT rights to a wedding cake
Major U.S. Supreme Court decisions coming in June deal with privacy rights to cellphone data, state and local sales taxes on internet purchases, and when it’s permissible for a state to purge inactive voters from the registration rolls.
Here are a few decisions coming in June of interest to most North Carolinians:
- EXTREME PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING: Is it constitutional for the legislative majority in a state that is roughly 50%/50% Republicans and Democrats to draw their party a 75%/25% “extreme partisan advantage” in the number of friendly congressional districts?
- LGBT RIGHTS VS. RELIGION: Is it constitutional for a conservative Christian baker to refuse to make a wedding cake for same-sex couple because of religious convictions?
- TRUMP TRAVEL BAN: Do presidents have the constitutional authority under U.S. immigration laws to ban travelers from countries where terrorist activity is heavily concentrated, even if all the countries banned are predominantly Muslim?
The biggest political prize of 2018 is the U.S. Senate majority (now a 51/49 Republican), because the U.S. Senate will decide the next U.S. Supreme Court justice. Every U.S. Senate candidate running in the fall 2018 races will be forced to stake themselves out the Supreme Court’s decisions coming in June.
The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
But that could all change in June.
Politically, June is on track to becoming the most consequential month of the midterm election year.
Hang on to your hats!
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Democratic Wave Weakened by Bitterness and Corruption as Trump Builds Seawall of Success May 1, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 7 1:13 pm Trump’s Seawall of Success Grows as Democratic Enthusiasm Wanes On Monday, April 30, when President Moon Jae-in of South Korea was complimented with the suggestion that his role in reunifying Korea and
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Democratic Wave Weakened by Bitterness and Corruption as Trump Builds Seawall of Success
May 1, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 7 1:13 pm
Trump’s Seawall of Success Grows as Democratic Enthusiasm Wanes
On Monday, April 30, when President Moon Jae-in of South Korea was complimented with the suggestion that his role in reunifying Korea and denuclearizing North Korea merited the Nobel Peace Prize, he replied, “It’s really President Trump who should receive it; we can just take peace.”
If President Trump does succeed in the denuclearization of North Korea during the coming months, his job approval will likely reach 50% by Labor Day, adding great height to his seawall of success in defense against the threat of a Democratic wave in November. A seawall already well-fortified by major regulatory and tax reform, economic expansion, jobs/wages growth, and favorable foreign trade deals.
The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of success. Remember, midterm elections are a referendum on the White House.
So, which will be higher? The wave or the seawall?
My sense is the Democratic wave is losing energy. Too many Democrats poisoning the party’s political potential with bitterness over having lost the presidential campaign to the likes of Donald Trump and his “deplorable” supporters. Bitterness exposing liberal hatred and bigotry. Elitism.
Hillary Clinton is weakening the Democratic wave with claims that white women who voted for Trump don’t think for themselves. They voted for Trump because of an “ongoing pressure to vote the way your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should,” said Hillary.
Hillary Clinton is an old-school Democrat living in the past, still carrying tattered protest signs from the 1960s. Disagree with them and you are branded. Racist. Sexist. Xenophobic. Homophobic.
The politics of bitterness is costing Democrats young voters, critical to their political wave.
The results of a new Reuter/Ipsos poll of voters ages 18-34, released April 30, 2018, found that the enthusiasm among millennials for the Democratic Party has dropped by 9 points over two years, to 46%. They don’t like Trump. And, they are still far more progressive than conservative. But if they are not enthusiastic about Democrats in 2018, they will stay home. No millennials, no Democratic wave.
Democrats’ reliance on Trump bashing to energize the wave is not working. For every one Stormy Daniels story on Trump there are 10 stories of Democrats exposed by the #Me Too movement.
And, unfortunately for Democrats, indictable offenses soon to be revealed by the investigations of Special Counsel Robert Mueller and Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz are just as likely to expose officials with the Obama Administration and associates of the Clintons as anyone associated with President Trump. Offsetting political penalties.
Why Korean Denuclearization and Unification is Likely
Meanwhile, Trump is on the verge of accomplishing what every US president since Harry Truman wanted to accomplish. Peace in Korea. Here are the keys to why he is likely to succeed:
• China’s 21st Century goal is to be the world’s greatest economic and military superpower.
• China cannot achieve global superiority without the wealth to build the infrastructure, wealth that comes from favorable trading relationships with wealthy nations like the US.
• North Korea’s threat of nuclear war with the US and its allies was undermining China’s ability to focus on creating wealth. That’s why China joined the economic sanctions imposed on North Korea by the United States and the UN earlier this year.
• Crippling economic sanctions against an already desperately poor, hermit country is leaving North Korea farther and farther behind the rest of the world, including Asian neighbors.
• In a world of high-speed Internet commerce and communications, where the new “space race” is artificial intelligence, North Korea cannot even provide electricity to its people.
That’s why North Korean leader Kim Jong-un traveled secretly in an armored train on March 27, 2018, to Beijing, for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping about denuclearization. That’s why one month later, on April 27, 2018, Kim Jong-un became the first member of the North Korean Kim dynasty to step across the border into South Korea.
Waiting at the border, was South Korean President Moon Jae-in. They shook hands. It was a handshake heard around the world. A handshake President Trump is being credited with initiating.
Soon, Kim Jong-un will agree to abandon North Korea’s nuclear program, end the seven decades of sabre rattling against the United States, and begin the process for reunification with South Korea. The entire world will celebrate and join South Korea and China in aiding North Korea’s economic recovery and assimilation with the rest of the world.
Success in Korea, economic optimism and offsetting scandals/indictments combine well with Trump’s incomparable skill at defining himself a winner and his detractors as losers to build a solid seawall of success in defense of an ever-weakening Democratic wave in the 2018 elections.
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Thanks for reading the John Davis Political ReportJohn N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“We were fortunate to have John Davis as our guest speaker during our 33rd Annual Triangle Commercial Real Estate Conference held in Raleigh at the PNC Arena. Comments from many of our 1,600+ guests indicated they not only found John’s presentation very informative, but also thought-provoking.”
Steve Stroud, NAI Carolantic Chairman, Raleigh; January 22, 2018
Honoring Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and All Who Were Murdered for Daring to Register Americans to Vote 1968 KKK Trial for the Murder of Vernon Dahmer NOTE: Fifty years ago, from March 11-15, 1968, I skipped college classes to sit through the murder trial of Cecil Sessums, a Baptist preacher who participated in a
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Honoring Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and All Who Were Murdered for Daring to Register Americans to Vote
1968 KKK Trial for the Murder of Vernon Dahmer
NOTE: Fifty years ago, from March 11-15, 1968, I skipped college classes to sit through the murder trial of Cecil Sessums, a Baptist preacher who participated in a KKK firebombing raid on the country home and store of Vernon Dahmer near Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Dahmer, an African American, was murdered simply because he dared to register black voters. Sessums, who testified that he prayed that God would bless the raid, was the first white man convicted of murdering a black man by an all-white male jury in Mississippi. Three weeks later, on April 4, 1968, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was shot dead in Memphis, Tennessee. This account of the trial, originally published on February 10, 2011, is republished today on the 50th anniversary of Dr. King’s assassination in memory of all who were murdered for the right to vote.
Special Report April 4, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 6 11:13 am
Note: Originally Published February 10, 2011
The Murder of Vernon Dahmer for Registering Blacks to Vote
There they were! I knew that I had kept them. Finally, after an hour and a half of digging through a lifetime of dusty boxes in the attic last Sunday night I found the newspaper articles I had clipped almost 43 years ago from the Hattiesburg AMERICAN, the daily paper in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, the county seat of Forrest County. I carefully unfolded each of the eight faded and brittle articles one at a time, reading and remembering:
- Thursday, Jan. 25, 1968 11 charged with murder and arson
- Friday, Mar. 8, 1968, Pitts pleads guilty to Dahmer charges; Anticipated state’s witness faces life on murder count plus long arson sentence
- Monday, Mar. 11, 1968, Selection of jury begins for Sessum murder trial
- Tuesday, Mar. 12, 1968, Jury completed for Sessum murder trial; pistol removed from purse carried by defendant’s wife
- Wednesday, Mar. 13, 1968, Car brought into trial testimony; FBI agent says bullet-marked auto belonged to one defendant
- Thursday, Mar. 14, 1968, Pitts puts finger on Sessum, other Klansmen; Names seven he said accompanied him in fatal fire-bombing raid on Dahmer place
- Friday, Mar. 15, 1968, Defense tries hard to discredit Pitts; … the verdict.
On the night of January 10, 1966, Vernon Dahmer, 58, an African American businessman who served as President of the Forrest County NAACP, was murdered when his house and store in a rural community just north of Hattiesburg were firebombed by a raiding party of 13 members of the Ku Klux Klan. Dahmer, along with his wife and three children, escaped from their burning home by breaking a back bedroom window and climbing out, running to the barn to hide.
Before escaping the inferno, Dahmer ran into the blazing front living room and returned fire with his shotgun through the picture window. He was burned about the head, arms, and upper body.
He died the next day.
Why did the KKK want Dahmer dead? Because a year earlier he had placed a voter registration book in his store and was working to get black voters to sign up. That was it. He had the audacity to register black voters.
Throughout the 20th century, a variety of means to keep blacks from voting were enacted into law, from literacy tests to a $2 poll tax. Pictured here is a receipt for a $2.00 POLL TAX, FOR THE YEAR 1936. The relative buying power of $2.00 in 1936 is $31.30 today. Can you imagine how many people you know who would vote today if they had to pay $31.30?
However, the most intimidating means of discouraging blacks from voting was the threat of violence routinely made by the White Knights of the Ku Klux Klan.
The Trial of Klansman Cecil Victor Sessum, the “Little Preacher”
I was a student at William Carey College in Hattiesburg in 1968 when the first defendant, Cecil Sessum, was tried for the murder of Vernon Dahmer. I cut classes the entire week of March 11 – 15, 1968 to attend the trial. I sat in the crowded gallery in the courtroom of the Forrest County Courthouse, just behind the sketch artists from the national TV news.
Cecil Victor Sessum was the 32-year-old Exalted Cyclops of Klavern No. 4, White Knights of the Ku Klux Klan. His fellow Klansmen called him “Little Preacher,” because he was a preacher. The list of defendants included Sam Bowers, Imperial Wizard of the White Knights of the Ku Klux Klan. Bowers was involved in the murder of the three civil rights workers near Philadelphia, Mississippi in 1964: Michael Schwerner, Andrew Goodman and James Chaney.
Security was very tight. Heavily armed deputies were at every door, both outside the courthouse and inside the courtroom. Everyone who wanted to enter had to be searched.
Monday: Jury Selection, the White Defendant, and the Colored Deceased
Monday, the first day of the trial, was devoted to jury selection. The district attorney was very careful in asking potential jurors if they could blind themselves to the fact that “the defendant is white and the deceased was colored.” Throughout the day, those called for jury duty were dismissed for many reasons including health or financial hardship, a work-related issue, or because they did not believe in capital punishment.
On Tuesday, we realized just how important those daily searches of spectators were when we found out that the wife of Cecil Sessum had tried to enter the courtroom that morning with a 38-caliber pistol in her purse. The judge ordered that the incident be kept quiet until the jury was selected, for fear that it would taint the selection process. We found out about Mrs. Sessum’s 38 Special mid-afternoon, after a jury of all white men was impaneled.
Tuesday: Mrs. Dahmer Testifies; Shattering Glass and Acrid, Choking Smoke
The first witness for the prosecution was Mrs. Vernon Dahmer. I will never forget her testimony as long as I live. She told of the sound of glass shattering in the living room at about 2 o’clock in the morning, the thud of something hitting the floor, and then the bright blast against the darkness as the gasoline exploded again and again in the front rooms. The fire burned the utility lines. There was no electricity; no phone. Just the roar of the fire … the acrid odor of the choking smoke … the sound of shots being fired … the three children.
She said her husband came into the bedroom and knocked the window out with the butt of his shotgun and helped her and the children out. They all ran to the barn, “to get away from the light of the fire,” she said in a voice tense with emotion as she relived the details of the night the Ku Klux Klan burned her home and killed her husband.
Mrs. Dahmer testified for several hours. She told how the family eventually made it to the home of Vernon Dahmer’s sister down the road. His sister drove them to Forrest General Hospital.
Vernon Dahmer’s wounds did not appear to be life threatening. However, what no one could see was the damage the hot toxic smoke had done to his lungs. He died that afternoon.
Throughout it all, Cecil Sessums, the “Little Preacher,” stared at Mrs. Dahmer with indifference … chewing gum. He knew the odds were good that an all-white male jury would not likely convict a white man for killing a black man; not in south Mississippi.
After Mrs. Dahmer’s dramatic testimony, the court was adjourned for the day. The jury was ordered locked up for the night for their own protection.
Wednesday: Bullet-riddled Car; Revolver with Melted Plastic Grips
On Wednesday, an FBI agent testified about a bullet-riddled car found the morning after the firebombing “several miles from the Dahmer place” with both front tires flat. The car was traced by the FBI to one of the Klansmen indicted for Dahmer’s murder. Apparently, Dahmer had disabled the car when he was returning fire with his shotgun through the picture window.
Other FBI agents testified about plastic jugs, some with small amounts of liquid in them … liquid that smelled like gasoline. They told of finding a revolver with melted plastic grips, about a Halloween mask found out by the road and expended shotgun shells scattered all about … including in the smoldering ruins where the front of house once stood.
Pathologists took the stand to state in their expert opinion that Dahmer had died as a result of damage to his lungs sustained while he returned gunfire in a room filled with superheated toxic smoke. But no one had seen the faces of any of the raiders, no one except the other raiders.
Thursday: Billy Roy the Rat Says Sessum Threw Five Jugs of Gasoline
The surprising development in the case came Thursday when Billy Roy Pitts, a 24-year-old member of the raiding party, testified as a witness for the prosecution in exchange for a sentence of life in prison without parole instead of the death penalty, which was automatic in a murder case at that time in Mississippi. The surprise was that he had not been shot by a sniper.
Pitts had been in federal custody before the trial, his whereabouts a closely guarded secret. He was escorted to the court house that morning under heavy guard. Throughout his testimony, all doors to the courtroom were blocked by well-armed deputies.
Pitts identified the eight members of the raiding party assigned to the house, while others were assigned to burn down Dahmer’s store. He told about the careful planning and said that the raid had been ordered by Sam Bowers, the Imperial Wizard of the Knights of the Ku Klux Klan. As to Cecil Sessums involvement, Pitts testified that he saw Sessum throw five jugs of gasoline through the picture window in the front of Dahmer’s house.
Friday: The Defense Rests; the All-White Male Jury Renders the Verdict
The next day, Friday, the defense attorneys tried to discredit Pitts by introducing witnesses who said that Pitts had been bragging that the FBI would give him anything we wanted to squeal. They also tried to create doubt about whether Sessum could have participated in such a raid by having friends and family, including his mother, testify about what a fine, Christian man he was.
By the end of the day Friday, the cases had been made by both the prosecution and the defense. At about 5 o’clock, the all-white male jury left the courtroom to decide the fate of a white man accused of killing a black man because he was registering black voters at his country store.
Two hours later the jury returned. “We the jury find the defendant guilty as charged.” Sessum chewed gum as the judge sentenced him to Parchman Penitentiary for the rest of his natural life.
The reporters scattered to find the nearest pay phone. I watched the stunned crowd for awhile, most of whom just sat there in silence, then took the city bus back to campus. Although I had been shaken by the week’s testimony, I really believed that something good would come from the sacrifice Vernon Dahmer and his family made just so black folk could vote.
It was Friday, March 15, 1968. Two weeks later, in the early evening of April 4, 1968, on the balcony of the Lorraine Motel in Memphis, Tennessee, a rifle shot rang out ………
– END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“We were fortunate to have John Davis as our guest speaker during our 33rd Annual Triangle Commercial Real Estate Conference held in Raleigh at the PNC Arena. Comments from many of our 1,600+ guests indicated they not only found John’s presentation very informative, but also thought-provoking.” Steve Stroud, NAI Carolantic Chairman, Raleigh; January 22, 2018
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Transformative Generational Wave on Political Horizon March 22, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 5 3:13 pm More Independent than Partisan Yes, a political wave is looming on the horizon. But it’s more generational than partisan. If it has a color, it’s more an independent purple than a Democratic blue. A big, purple wave that is certain
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Transformative Generational Wave on Political Horizon
March 22, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 5 3:13 pm
More Independent than Partisan
Yes, a political wave is looming on the horizon. But it’s more generational than partisan. If it has a color, it’s more an independent purple than a Democratic blue. A big, purple wave that is certain to crash ashore and wash away aging, inflexible leaders in both parties. But when?
According to a study of North Carolina registered voters conducted by Dr. Michael Bitzer, Professor of Politics and History at Catawba College, as of Monday, February 5, 2018, Millennials (Born 1981-1997) and Generation Z (Born 1998 and after) are now 32% of the state’s 6.8 million registered voters, surpassing Baby Boomers as the state’s largest cohort on the voter rolls.
- Millennials/Generation Z (Born since 1981): 32% of NC registered voters
- Baby Boomers (1945-1965): 31% of NC registered voters
- Generation X (1966-1980) are 27% of NC registered voters
- Greatest/Silent Generation (Before 1945): 10% of NC registered voters
Millennials have a far more independent streak than older generations, contributing to the growth of Unaffiliated voters, who now outnumber Republicans for the first time in state history.
- Baby Boomers: Democrat (42%), Republican (34%), Unaffiliated 24%
- Millennials: Unaffiliated (40%), Democrat (35%), Republican (24%)
As to race and ethnicity, per Dr. Bitzer’s 2017 year-end analysis, Baby Boomers are White (74%), Black (20%), Other (6%), while Millennials are White (61%), Black (25%), Other (13%, primarily Hispanic and Asian voters).
Looking only at White Baby Boomers, 44% are registered as Republican, 30% are registered as Democrats and 26% are registered as Unaffiliated. Looking only at White Millennials, 44% are registered Unaffiliated, 36% are registered as Republican and 19% are registered as Democrat.
Looking only at African-American Baby Boomers, 89% are Democratic and 9% Unaffiliated. Conversely, African-American Millennials are 74% Democratic and 23% Unaffiliated (3% GOP).
Other key findings by Dr. Bitzer include the fact that about 8-in-10 of the youngest generations of North Carolina voters live in urban or suburban counties.
- Baby Boomers by County: Urban (50%), Suburban (23%), Rural (26%)
- Millennials by County: Urban (61%), Suburban (18%), Rural (21%)
Studies have consistently shown that urban voters are overwhelmingly more likely to favor Democrats over Republicans, whereas suburban voters are split and rural voters predictably Republican.
Most Independent, Diverse and Educated Generation
As to how North Carolina voter registration trends compare to the nation, Pew Research Center released a national study on March 16, 2018 titled, How Millennials today compare with their grandparents 50 years ago. This study shows dramatic differences in the generations:
- Baby Boomers: 72% White (non-Hispanic), 11% Black, 11% Hispanic, 5% Asian
- Millennials: 56% White (non-Hispanic), 21% Hispanic, 13% Black, 7% Asian
- Baby Boomers: 22% men and 20% women have bachelor’s degrees
- Millennials: 29% men and 36% women have bachelor’s degrees
A new study of the nation’s registered voters was released March 20, 2018, by the Pew Research Center, based on more than 10,000 interviews in 2017. Here are key comparisons between today’s politically dominant Baby Boomers and the emerging younger generations of voters:
- Millennials are the most independent (44%) of any generation (Baby Boomers, 32%)
- Democrats have a nearly two-to-one advantage among Millennials (59% to 32%) when adding in the “lean Democratic” independent voters
- Baby Boomers are evenly divided (48% Democratic, 46% Republican) when adding “leans”
- A large majority of Millennial women (70%) identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared to only 23% of millennial women who favor Republicans
- Overall, 56% of all women are inclined to support Democrats; 37% prefer Republicans
- Millennial men are 49%-to-41% Democrat over Republican, as compared to Baby Boomer men, who are 49%-to-43% Republican over Democrat
- White Millennials are 52%-to-41% Democrat over Republican, as compared to white Baby Boomers who are 53%-to-41% Republican over Democrat
“Waves don’t always crash evenly.”
The most sensible political statement I’ve heard that defines this election cycle is from Jonathan Kappler, Executive Director of the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, who told an audience of political activists on Monday, March 5, 2018, “Waves don’t always crash evenly.”
Here’s why that statement is important to understanding political waves:
Does it matter if a wave crashes in an urban, majority-minority Democrat-friendly district where the African-American Democrat is going to win, wave or no wave?
Does it matter if a wave crashes in a predominantly white, solid Republican rural district in Western North Carolina where there are not enough Democrats for a wave to threaten the white Republican?
Winning and losing in almost all Congressional and legislative races today is all about how the districts are drawn. The few toss-up races are about which party shows up to vote. Enthusiasm.
According to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal national survey, conducted March 10-14, 2018, voters with the least interest in the midterm elections are both Democrat-friendly groups: Young voters (18 to 34-year-olds), with only 37% interested, and Independents voters, also 37% interested.
If Democrats fail to turn out younger voters and Democratic-leaning independent voters, they have no chance of taking back the legislative majorities in Washington, DC or Raleigh.
The NBC polls shows the highest level of interest in voting this fall is among Clinton voters at 64%, followed by Democrats at 60% and white voters with college degrees at 59%, who favor Democrats by big margins. Unfortunately for Democrats, most of the Clinton voters live in urban congressional and legislative districts already dominated by Democrats.
Next in the line of enthusiasm in the NBC poll is the 65-year-old-and-older voters at 58%, who tend to favor Republicans, the Trump voters at 57% and all Republicans at 54%. If Republicans do not match Democrats’ enthusiasm this fall, they risk losing the toss-up races … federal and state. That’s what happened in Virginia last year. Democrats had the enthusiasm advantage. Republicans didn’t show up.
My argument all along during this election cycle has been that a good economy, gerrymandered districts and offsetting scandals/indictments means low turnout which favors the status quo.
Yes, a transformative generational wave is looming on the political horizon. But will it crash ashore in 2018, threatening Republican majorities? The answer to that depends on whether Millennial voters stay home, like they did in 2016, because their only political options are appalling choices.
Do they back Republicans who support Donald Trump, with his chaotic management style, personal insults and porn star scandals, all the while, ignoring issues most important to young voters, like income inequality, gun laws, healthcare and healing the nation’s racial and ethnic divides?
Do they back Democrats who champion DC establishment Democrats, like Hillary Clinton? Those who enabled Donald Trump by rigging the federal government for privileged insiders and exploiting their public trust for personal gain while ignoring those who were struggling to make ends meet?
A transformative generational wave is looming on the political horizon.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“We were fortunate to have John Davis as our guest speaker during our 33rd Annual Triangle Commercial Real Estate Conference held in Raleigh at the PNC Arena. Comments from many of our 1,600+ guests indicated they not only found John’s presentation very informative, but also thought-provoking.” Steve Stroud, NAI Carolantic Chairman, Raleigh; January 22, 2018
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
New Study of North Carolina Partisan Bias Confirms Most Legislative Seats are Republicans to Lose March 8, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 4 2:13 pm Friendly GOP NC Senate Districts Outnumber Democrats 27 to 16 A new study of the partisan bias of each of the state’s 170 legislative districts, released today by the non-partisan political
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New Study of North Carolina Partisan Bias Confirms Most Legislative Seats are Republicans to Lose
March 8, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 4 2:13 pm
Friendly GOP NC Senate Districts Outnumber Democrats 27 to 16
A new study of the partisan bias of each of the state’s 170 legislative districts, released today by the non-partisan political research organization NCFEF (NC FreeEnterprise Foundation), confirms a convincing GOP advantage in the 2018 legislative seats that in my judgment argues well for ongoing Republican majorities in the North Carolina Senate and House for the remainder of the decade.
In the 50-member North Carolina Senate, Republicans have 27 friendly seats compared to only 16 friendly seats for the Democrats. As a simple majority in the state Senate is 26 seats, Republicans can lose all seven seats considered “Competitive” by NCFEF and still hold the majority.
NCFEF rates the 50 NC Senate seats as follows:
- 15 NC Senate Districts as “Strong Democratic”
- 1 NC Senate District as “Lean Democratic”
- 7 NC Senate Districts as “Competitive”
- 8 NC Senate Districts as “Lean Republican”
- 19 NC Senate Districts as “Strong Republican”
A complete list of the NC Senates districts with commentary by Jonathan Kappler, NCFEF Executive Director, can be found here on the NCFEF website.
Friendly GOP NC House Districts Outnumber Democrats 64 to 42
In the 120-member North Carolina House of Representatives, Republicans have 64 friendly seats compared to only 42 for the Democrats. As a simple majority in the state House is 61 seats, Republicans can lose all 14 seats considered “competitive” by NCFEF and still hold the majority.
NCFEF rates the 120 NC House seats as follows:
- 37 NC House Districts as “Strong Democratic”
- 5 NC House District as “Lean Democratic”
- 14 NC House Districts as “Competitive”
- 8 NC House Districts as “Lean Republican”
- 56 NC House Districts as “Strong Republican”
A complete list of the NC House districts with commentary by Jonathan Kappler, NCFEF Executive Director, can be found here on the NCFEF website.
Can a “Stormy” Daniels Wave Threaten the GOP Political Moorings?
Of course, Democrats are hoping for a giant wave energized by White House political ineptitude, like the sex scandal involving President Trump and porn star Stormy Daniels, to come crashing down on the Republican shore this November, tearing Republicans away from their most secure moorings.
Yes, sex scandals can cause destructive political waves. However, the great lesson of the presidential campaign of 2016 is if you’re going to start a wave based on the sexual conduct of your Republican opponent, you better be sure your party leaders do not include those like former president Bill Clinton, impeached for lying about his affair with a 21-year-old White House intern.
Exploiting his political power for sexual favors was mere sport for Bill Clinton throughout his terms as governor in Arkansas and president. Yet, Democrats continue to revere Bill Clinton. A Democratic wave based on the sexual misconduct of President Trump will merely trickle to shore.
And besides, legislative district maps are like seawalls built to withstand political waves.
That’s why the new study of the partisan bias of each of the state’s 170 legislative districts, released today by the non-partisan political research organization NCFEF, is so significant. It confirms a convincing GOP advantage in the 2018 legislative seats that in my judgment argues well for ongoing Republican majorities in the North Carolina Senate and House for the remainder of the decade.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“We were fortunate to have John Davis as our guest speaker during our 33rd Annual Triangle Commercial Real Estate Conference held in Raleigh at the PNC Arena. Comments from many of our 1,600+ guests indicated they not only found John’s presentation very informative, but also thought-provoking.” Steve Stroud, NAI Carolantic Chairman, Raleigh; January 22, 2018
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Most NC Congressional and Legislative Races are Republicans to Lose After SCOTUS OK’s GOP Maps February 9, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 3 12:13 pm Maps + Money = Majority The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled on Tuesday, February 6, that all but 11 of the 170 Republican-drawn legislative districts were allowed to
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Most NC Congressional and Legislative Races are Republicans to Lose After SCOTUS OK’s GOP Maps
February 9, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 3 12:13 pm
Maps + Money = Majority
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled on Tuesday, February 6, that all but 11 of the 170 Republican-drawn legislative districts were allowed to stand for 2018, dashing the hopes of Democrats for taking back either the North Carolina Senate or House this year. The 11 districts, redrawn by the federal court’s “special master,” are in only six of the state’s 100 counties: Cumberland, Guilford, Hoke, Bladen, Sampson and Wayne. All others remain as drawn by Republicans.
Candidate filing begins Monday, February 12, 2018. Unless there is judicial intervention, North Carolina Republican-friendly districts will once again greatly outnumber the Democratic-friendly districts for the 2018 elections. As NC Democratic Party spokesman Robert Howard said about the Supreme Court’s ruling in today’s News &Observer, “The battlegrounds are largely the same.”
Republicans have a 35/15 supermajority in the North Carolina Senate; a 75/45 supermajority in the North Carolina House. This week’s US Supreme Court ruling means that state Democrats will likely shift their political priorities to breaking the GOP supermajorities, rather than breaking the majorities.
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (D-Nash) has raised $2.4 million for Break the Majority, a state Democratic Party political action fund for legislative candidates. And, Democrats can count on a substantial amount of support from out-of-state groups.
Eric Holder, former US Atty. Gen. during the Obama administration, has formed the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, and plans to invest millions of dollars in legislative campaigns in a dozen states, including North Carolina, “in an effort to block Republicans from single-handedly drawing congressional maps after 2020,” said the New York Times on February 6, 2018.
But, Republicans can count on outside money too. On Saturday, January 27, 2018, the conservative billionaire Koch brothers and their allies announced that they plan to spend $400 million during the midterm elections to help the GOP keep their majorities in Washington, DC and other state capitals. Much of that money will be spent by Americans for Prosperity, a conservative organization known for their effectiveness in getting North Carolina Republicans out to vote.
It strikes me that a $400 million political commitment from conservative billionaires means that Democrats can forget gaining a financial advantage in 2018 through liberal billionaires.
I have used a simple formula to forecast likely legislative majorities in North Carolina for many election cycles: Maps + Money = Majority. This week’s ruling by the US Supreme Court, allowing all but 11 of 170 GOP-drawn maps to stand for the 2018 legislative races, along with the likelihood that GOP candidates will have all the money they need to run effective campaigns, means Republican majorities are likely during the 2019-2020 sessions of the North Carolina General Assembly.
Economic Expansion Above 5% Means Presidential Approval Up by Fall
Democrats are counting on a traditional midterm election during which a negative referendum on the White House will drive their voters out and cause Republicans to stay home in discouragement. Unfortunately, a truly historic era of economic expansion appears to be unfolding. If it does, President Trump’s job approval will rise, along with voter optimism, and the Democratic wave will fall.
Consider recent economic news from Reuters. On February 1, 2018, Reuters reported that the Atlanta Federal Reserve had revised its forecast, saying that the US economy is on track to grow at 5.4% (1st Q GDP). On February 8, 2018, Reuters reported that US jobless claims dropped to a near 45-year low, and that low unemployment and wage growth could be expected.
Historic tax and regulatory reform legislation, which has already stimulated 300 companies to give over 3 million Americans bonuses or raises, has triggered the repatriation of hundreds of billions of dollars from foreign banks for new and expansion projects in the United States.
And then there is today’s economic news that the “Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018,” a bipartisan $400 billion bill that provides increased defense funding and disaster relief, was passed in the wee hours of the night by the US Senate (71-28) and House (240-186). The bill was signed by President Trump this morning, who Tweeted, “This bill is a BIG VICTORY for our military, but much waste in order to get Dem votes. Fortunately, DACA not included in this bill, negotiations to start now!”
Midterm political pressure is forcing Congress to get things done, likely including passing the much-anticipated immigration reform legislation in March and an infrastructure spending bill soon after.
All this positive economic and political activity will eventually drive up the President’s job approval. As to what will drive Trump’s approval numbers down, I do not believe that you count on scandals and indictments. Too many officials in the Clinton campaign camp and the Obama Justice Department with offsetting political exposures to allegations of inappropriate, biased activity.
So, a lot is at stake in the 2018 elections: 435 US House races will decide the MAJORITY PARTY, including 13 US House races in North Carolina. Another 34 US Senate races that will decide the MAJORITY PARTY in the US Senate, critical, because the US Senate decides the US SUPREME COURT. There are 36 governors up for election in 2018, and 87 of the nation’s 99 legislative chambers … including the North Carolina Senate & House.
Thanks to US Supreme Court rulings on GOP-drawn maps in North Carolina, along with an expanding economy, offsetting political scandals in DC, a growing list of Trump Administration accomplishments and plenty of conservative billionaires to make sure their narrative is well-told, odds favor the GOP holding the MAJORITY PARTY status in Washington, DC and Raleigh.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“Felt so fortunate to hear Mr. Davis’ take on the political climate – it was eye-opening, and perspective changing, even for someone who’s involved in this world day-in and day-out.” Leadership North Carolina, November 8, 2017
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Political Feats, Economic Optimism and Offsetting Scandals Mean Likely High Midterm Marks for Trump January 25, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 2 11:13 pm Trump’s #1 POLITICAL Feat is Discrediting Detractors with Tweets The first midterm exam on President Trump will be held on November 6. His job evaluation will greatly influence voter turnout and the
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Political Feats, Economic Optimism and Offsetting Scandals Mean Likely High Midterm Marks for Trump
January 25, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 2 11:13 pm
Trump’s #1 POLITICAL Feat is Discrediting Detractors with Tweets
The first midterm exam on President Trump will be held on November 6. His job evaluation will greatly influence voter turnout and the degree of partisan advantage in Washington, DC and Raleigh.
As to likely outcome, Trump’s incomparable skill at defining himself a winner and his detractors as losers combines well with economic optimism and offsetting scandals to suggest high marks this fall.
This conclusion runs counter to history. In midterm elections, the party of the president almost always loses seats in congress. Usually, because the president’s base voters stay home in protest.
Democrats took back the Congress after President Bush’s 2006 midterm elections because Republicans stayed home in protest over how fellow Republicans were spending money.
Republicans took back the US House and won the North Carolina House and Senate majorities after President Obama’s 2010 midterm elections because Democrats stayed home in protest over Democrats putting healthcare reform ahead of jobs and the economy during the recession.
However, the unique political feats noted below will likely spur a solid turnout of Trump’s base.
First and foremost, President Trump’s #1 most important political feat during his first year in office is using his Twitter account to discredit his detractors, particularly liberal news journalists.
- President Trump has 46.9 million followers of his Donald J. Trump Twitter account
- President Trump sent over 2,500 tweets during his first year in office
Using daily Tweets and friendly cable news sources like Fox News, President Trump has completely disrupted the “Golden Age” of White House news coverage, historically dominated by a small number of liberal-leaning TV networks and big city daily newspapers.
In recognizing President Trump as #1 Media Power Player of the year in 2017, Broadcasting & Cable magazine cautioned readers against assuming that Trump “governs solely by whim,” concluding that he is “the most compelling change agent this business has seen.”
Nothing sends Trump voters into a frenzy of roaring approval more than his calling out the “Fake News” media. That’s why his #1 most important POLITICAL feat likely to drive up turnout of the GOP base this fall is using Twitter to define himself a winner and his detractors as losers.
In a close second, reversing President Barack Obama’s executive orders.
Trump’s #2 POLITICAL Feat is Reversing Obama’s Executive Orders
President Trump’s #2 most important political feat is reversing President Obama’s executive orders. Trump signed 30 executive orders in his first 100 days. An above-average 58 in his first year.
Think Keystone XL pipeline, the Dakota Access pipeline, and allowing mining and drilling on public lands. Trump’s EPA regulatory rollbacks are the largest in the agency’s 47-year history.
President Trump boasts eliminating 22 regulations for every one new regulation. He overturned the Affordable Care Act’s contraception coverage mandates by signing a Religious Liberty order.
All federal government policies, from immigration laws and infrastructure projects, to education, the regulatory environment and our relationships with foreign countries, are being reoriented from liberal to conservative ideas for progress by President Trump’s executive orders.
Executive orders have given Trump bragging rights to the lowest number of illegal border crossings in 17 years, and a 42% increase in arrests of illegal immigrants in the US.
Likely coming soon is a bipartisan immigration bill that will include spending on “The Wall” and resolving the DACA issue (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals). Other immigration issues likely to get the conservative stamp of approval this year are the visa lottery and chain migration.
President Trump has shifted the nation’s military strategy to the “Peace through strength” policy advocated by conservatives for centuries. Trump unleashed the nation’s military might against ISIS, taking back over 90% of their territory. He has backed down rogue nations like North Korea with the caution to never test his willingness to protect the homeland by any means.
Other than discrediting the “Fake News” media, nothing is making the Trump base voter happier that seeing him replace President Obama’s liberal executive orders with conservative orders.
Trump’s #3 POLITICAL Feat is Optimism
Finally, there is reason for optimism for peace and prosperity here at home and around the world.
Two recent events signal the potential for diffusing the threat of North Korean nuclear missiles aimed at the United States and its allies like South Korea.
First, on New Year’s Day, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced his interest in reunification talks with South Korea. Second, North and South Korean athletes have announced that they are marching together under one flag during the opening ceremonies at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, to be held February 9-25, 2018.
Perhaps the Trump Administration’s economic sanctions on North Korea are working as intended. Perhaps it is China’s calming hand keeping Kim Jong Un from destroying trading relationships with wealthy markets like the US. Whatever the reason, President Trump will get much of the credit if the threat of nuclear missiles is defused. And, optimism will grow.
President Trump has created a surge in US economic activity by embracing all things conducive to private-sector growth. From ending regulatory overreach to major tax reform, Trump’s economic agenda has created what the New York Times calls, “a wave of optimism” that will spark investment in 2018 in new projects throughout business and industry.
During President Trump’s first year, we have already seen the Dow exceed 26,000 for the first time, and US unemployment fall to 4.1%, a 17-year low. We have seen the President take the lead in the passage of a major tax reform bill that cut corporate rates from 35% to 21%.
Thanks to tax reform, millions of employees are receiving bonuses and raises. Plus, much of $2.8 trillion parked abroad by S&P 500 companies due high tax rates, will be repatriated and invested here in the United States. New jobs with decent benefits. Jobs that pay well.
Apple announced that they are repatriating $252 billion ($55 billion in 2018), planning 20,000 new US jobs, and investing $10 billion in their data centers in 7 states, including North Carolina.
Look for a bipartisan infrastructure bill this year, adding to investments in job opportunities, along with new foreign trade deals, all of which will likely drive up optimism for global peace and prosperity.
With optimism for peace and prosperity comes rising job approval numbers for President Trump.
Of course, all these feats and optimism for peace and prosperity may be dashed by Special Counsel Robert Mueller in his investigation of whether Trump campaign officials colluded with Russians to influence 2016 elections. On the other hand, Obama Justice Department officials are under suspicion for possible collusion with the Hillary Clinton campaign to get FISA warrants authorized so they could snoop on the Trump camp. Offsetting scandals.
Last week, Republican US Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley referred the author of the Trump-Russia dossier to the Justice Department to investigate for possible criminal charges because of “potentially false statements about the distribution of claims from the dossier.”
And, on the criminal scandal front, we also discovered last week that the FBI has been discreetly investigating the Clinton Foundation for months to see if any pay-to-play deals were made on behalf of foundation donors by the State Department while Hillary Clinton served as Secretary of State.
What we are seeing today in Washington, DC is the politics of mutually assured destruction. Both sides battling with offsetting scandals. Indictments are just as likely for associates of the Clintons or officials with the Obama Administration as for anyone associated with President Trump.
The first midterm exam on President Trump will be held in November. Trump’s incomparable skill at defining himself a winner and his detractors as losers combines well with economic optimism and offsetting scandals to suggest high marks and a favorable result for Trump and the GOP this fall.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“Felt so fortunate to hear Mr. Davis’ take on the political climate – it was eye-opening, and perspective changing, even for someone who’s involved in this world day-in and day-out.” Leadership North Carolina, November 8, 2017
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.