NC Democrats in Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don’t Dilemma with Bernie Sanders in Presidential Race February 24, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 2 9:13 am Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities is the title of a new study published February 11, 2020 by the
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NC Democrats in Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don’t Dilemma with Bernie Sanders in Presidential Race
February 24, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 2 9:13 am
Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities
Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities is the title of a new study published February 11, 2020 by the Gallup polling organization, a title that virtually shouts a dire warning to Democrats everywhere. Don’t choose socialist Bernie Sanders as your presidential nominee!
According to Gallup, “socialist” is the least desirable among the 12 characteristics of candidates for president of the United States in the national survey.
The wording of the Gallup question was, “If your party nominated a generally well-qualified person for president who happened to be a socialist, would you vote for that person?” Only 45% of voting age Americans would vote for a well-qualified socialist for president.
So, how does “socialist” compare to the other characteristics? Over 90% of Americans would vote for a well-qualified candidate who is Black (96%), Catholic (95%), Hispanic (94%), Woman (93%), Jewish (93%). Note: Sanders is Jewish. As for Socialist, only 45%; 15-points lower than Atheist!
There is no doubt that 78-year-old, self-avowed socialist Bernie Sanders is the front-runner in the Democratic Party’s race for the presidential nomination after wins in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. There is also no doubt that Sanders would be a drag on the Democratic Party in the 2020 in a centrist, swing state like North Carolina. And the timing could not be worse.
North Carolina has 20 statewide races this fall with a history of razor-thin margins of victories. For example, in 2016, five of 10 Council of State races were won with only 50% of the vote plus a small margin of victory. Gov. Roy Cooper, D-Nash, won with only 49%.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t
Democrats are damned if they do choose Bernie Sanders as their party’s nominee for President because “socialist” is the least desirable characteristic in a president, and damned if they don’t choose Bernie Sanders because they risk losing his enthusiastic base of young voters.
Many younger voters are drawn to Bernie Sanders’s platform of Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, a $15 minimum wage, higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals, breaking up Wall Street banks, unionization of American workers, free public college tuition, legalization of marijuana, income equality, immigration policy and LGBTQ rights.
However, as the front-runner, Sanders faces a constant barrage of attacks from establishment Democrats, many of whom insist that a radical left socialist cannot win the race for the presidency.
If Sanders is not the party nominee in Milwaukee in July, many of his supporters, still reeling in anger after 2016 emails hacked from the Democratic National Committee and published by WikiLeaks disclosed that party leaders conspired with Hillary Clinton to defeat Sanders, will be inclined to suspect another underhanded ploy by the DNC establishment. Many will simply stay home from the polls like they did in 2016.
Next Tuesday, March 3, North Carolina will choose the pairings in the 20 statewide races in the upcoming General Election: Governor and 9 Council of State races, US Senate, NC Supreme Court (3 races) and NC Court of Appeals (5 races). Many will be decided this fall by a fraction of a point.
For Republicans, a historic economy and 94% GOP job approval for President Trump bodes well for their prospects for high turnout and good success in this year’s elections.
Further, a February 20, 2020 Gallup poll shows Trump’s job approval among all voters is at a high of 49%. A February 6, 2020 Gallup study that began in 1971 shows 90% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in their personal life, a new high in Gallup’s four-decade trend.
On February 12, 2020, 61% of Americans said they are better off than three years ago, a new high since the previous high of 50% “better off” set by Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush.
Meanwhile, for Democrats, it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t dilemma with Bernie Sanders in the presidential race.
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John N. Davis
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NC Among Top States Likely to Spend the Most on Media in Races for US President, US Senate and Governor January 27, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 1 9:13 am Political Briefing: If you are interested in having me brief your company or trade group on the status of 2020 federal and state campaigns, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com
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NC Among Top States Likely to Spend the Most on Media in Races for US President, US Senate and Governor
January 27, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 1 9:13 am
Political Briefing: If you are interested in having me brief your company or trade group on the status of 2020 federal and state campaigns, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com
Citizens United Decision in 2010 Opened the Independent $ Floodgate
On January 21, 2010, the US Supreme Court ruled in the Citizens United case that wealthy individuals, corporations and trade associations can spend an unlimited amount on political campaigns as long as they do so independently. Just hire your own consultants and create your own ads.
The Citizens United ruling is why Michael Bloomberg, former New York City mayor and current Democratic Presidential Primary contender, can make good on his threat to spend $1 billion of his own fortune to defeat President Trump. He said if he loses the nomination, he will still spend $1 billion to defeat Trump, “even it means helping nominees like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.”
If you doubt Bloomberg’s commitment, consider that his net worth is $60 billion, he has already spent $258 million of his own money on his presidential ads, and he paid $11 million for a Super Bowl TV ad. According to Advertising Analytics, from January 18-24, Michael Bloomberg had the #1 most played ad for the week, “Defeat Donald Trump,” which aired 14,174 times.
Unlimited independent political spending is the floodgate Citizens United opened in 2010.
A new study released this month by the Center for Responsive Politics reveals that only about $375 million was spent independently on political races per decade from 1990 to 2010. Since 2010?
- $4.5 billion has been spent by non-party independent groups since 2010
- Wealthy individual donors, not corporations, now have the dominant financial influence
- Top 10 most generous donors contributed 1.2 billion to independent groups since 2010
Here in North Carolina, we saw the impact of the Citizens United ruling during the 2016 races for governor and other statewide campaigns when $33.1 million was spent by outside independent groups, per an analysis by Facing South. Outside groups spent $16.4 million just in the governor’s race.
NC Governor’s Race Likely #1 in US for Political Media Spending
If you add the $16.4 million spent by outside groups to the $16.8 million spent by then-Gov. Pat McCrory, R-Mecklenburg, and the $24.2 million spent by then-AG Roy Cooper, D-Nash, a total of $57.4 million was spent in the last governor’s race in North Carolina. This explains how North Carolina’s 2016 race for governor was #1 in the nation in TV ad spending in the General Election.
Looking ahead at 2020 spending on the governor’s race, Advertising Analytics projects that North Carolina will likely be the top governor’s race for spending on political media at $56 million. And remember, this is only the projection for political media. Look for closer to $75 million to be spent in the North Carolina’s governor’s race in 2020, with 1/3 of that amount likely spent by outside groups.
NC Presidential and US Senate Likely in Top 5 Spending for Political Media
Citizen’s United was also responsible for the $86 million spent independently by outside groups in the 2014 race for the US Senate in North Carolina. That was when then-NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Cabarrus defeated incumbent US Sen. Kay Hagan, D-Guilford. Almost $40 million was spent on ads attacking Tillis by outside groups in 2014; $21 million was spent attacking Sen. Kay Hagan.
With the $86 million spent by outside groups, total spending in North Carolina’s 2014 Senate race was $124 million, making it the #1 most expensive US Senate race in the country.
So, what can we expect in 2020 in the US Senate race in North Carolina? More of the same, for two reasons: One, Sen. Thom Tillis is on the very short list of the most vulnerable US Senators. Two, the US Supreme Court, now 5-4 conservative, is at stake. Nothing is more consequential in 2020 than who nominates (President) and who confirms (US Senate) the next nominee to the Nation’s highest court.
As for likely 2020 political media spending by candidates running in the US Senate race, Advertising Analytics projects that North Carolina will see $74 million spent just on political media. That makes North Carolina #3 in the amount likely spent on political media in a 2020 US Senate race.
Advertising Analytics also projects that North Carolina will be #5 in the nation in media spending in the presidential race. Forecast: $122 million.
Everything is at stake in 2020. The President, US Supreme Court, US Senate and House; the Governor, Council of State, Appellate Judiciary, the General Assembly … and the next maps!
Truly one of the most consequential … and expensive … election years of our lifetime.
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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Impeachment Discredited Politically by IG Report and Bitter House Democrats with “0%” Bipartisan Support December 12, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 11 3:13 pm Yes, Trump is Appalling, but … It does not matter politically that everything President Donald Trump is accused of by US House Democrats is true if the alternative to President Trump is
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Impeachment Discredited Politically by IG Report and Bitter House Democrats with “0%” Bipartisan Support
December 12, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 11 3:13 pm
Yes, Trump is Appalling, but …
It does not matter politically that everything President Donald Trump is accused of by US House Democrats is true if the alternative to President Trump is worse. After witnessing both the spectacle of the hyper-partisan impeachment proceedings, that failed to convert a single bipartisan vote, and the testimony by DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz exposing corruption in the highest ranks of the FBI, many Americans will undoubtedly conclude that the alternative to Trump is worse.
What’s worse than President Trump’s everyday appalling comments and behavior? How about FBI lawyers who alter CIA email to say that a respected CIA informant, Naval Academy graduate and Trump campaign advisor Carter Page, was not a CIA asset? Intentionally falsifying a FISA application document is illegal. Withholding exculpatory information is the reason Carter Page was unjustly suspected of spying for Russia and why the FISA court approved spying on Carter Page.
Yes, President Trump’s behavior is frequently appalling and unbecoming of the President of the United States. Not that anyone needs examples, but just today, President Trump criticized as “So ridiculous” the naming of 16-year-old environmental activist Greta Thunberg as Time magazine’s “Person of the Year.” That’s an appalling and shameful statement, especially from a US President.
But, is Trump’s behavior more appalling than the Inspector General’s testimony that 17 “inexplicable” inaccuracies and omissions by the FBI in the process of obtaining four separate FISA warrants led to the unwarranted spying on Carter Page? Intentional? “It’s hard to look at all 17 of these events and conclude it was complete incompetence,” said Horowitz.
Is Trump’s behavior more appalling than the fact that the FBI knew and failed to report that the Steele dossier, the document that Horowitz said “pushed the FISA over the line” in establishing probable cause for spying on Carter Page, was not only written by an unreliable source who was “desperate to prevent Mr. Trump’s election,” but was paid for by the Clinton campaign?
The FBI had a duty to report exculpatory information and to obtain evidence legally, and they didn’t. The FBI has been caught by the Inspector General using the “fruit of the poisonous tree” to, as Attorney General William Barr said on Monday, “launch an intrusive investigation of a US presidential campaign on the thinnest of suspicions that, in my view, were insufficient to justify the steps taken.”
That, my friends, is appalling. And, as much can be said for the impeachment proceedings.
Impeachment with Avengeance Yields “0%” Bipartisan Support
US House Democrats have launched an intrusive investigation of a US President on suspicions so thin that they have failed to achieve their goal of bipartisan support. Not one Republican is with them.
Without bipartisan support for impeachment, Democrats will wind up being punished. And Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, knows that all too well. “Unless you have bipartisan consensus, impeachment is a divisive issue in the country,” Pelosi said on May 8, 2019, at a Politico event. “Many people would think it’s being done for political reasons,” she added.
Is impeachment a divisive issue in the country? Today’s Real Clear Politics average of all polling on the question of impeachment shows 46.5% “Yes” and 46.5% “No.” A divided nation over impeachment and “0% bipartisan support is the worst possible outcome for Democrats.
The resolution in the US House to open the impeachment inquiry passed 232-196, with not a single Republican vote. On February 6, 1974, the US House voted 410-4 to proceed with the formal impeachment inquiry against President Nixon. There was also bipartisan support in 1998, when 31 House Democrats voted with Republicans for the impeachment inquiry against President Clinton.
I cautioned in my last report, if the final US House vote on impeachment is 100% partisan, Democrats will be facing a political backlash in 2020. The vote on impeachment is 100% partisan.
So, what happened to Pelosi’s wise council on the need for bipartisan consensus? Bitterness.
From the day Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, too many House Democrats have allowed their bitterness to get the best of them. Sure, they stand soberly before the microphones quoting American founders and justifying impeachment as their duty to the Constitution, but most Americans only see bitter partisans in a Congress with a 21.8% Job Approval rating (66.5% disapprove).
On December 18, 1998, Nancy Pelosi, D-California, said, “The Republican majority is not judging President Clinton with fairness but impeaching him with avengeance. We are here today because Republicans are paralyzed with hatred.” The same statement can be made about Democrats today.
The lack of bipartisan support for impeachment, along with the Inspector General’s report this week, clearly make the case that President Trump is being impeached with avengeance because Democrats are paralyzed with hatred over losing in 2016.
It does not matter politically that everything President Donald Trump is accused of by US House Democrats is true if the alternative to President Trump is worse. Revenge impeachment is worse.
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John N. Davis
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The Only Impeachment Hearing that Matters Today is In the Court of Public Opinion, Not the US House November 13, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 10 7:13 am The Court of Public Opinion is About How the Public Feels The impeachment proceedings beginning today in the US House must ultimately be seen in the court of
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The Only Impeachment Hearing that Matters Today is In the Court of Public Opinion, Not the US House
November 13, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 10 7:13 am
The Court of Public Opinion is About How the Public Feels
The impeachment proceedings beginning today in the US House must ultimately be seen in the court of public opinion as fair, unvengeful and bipartisan. Otherwise, Democrats will be facing a political backlash in 2020. A backlash that would likely include a second term for President Trump and perhaps two more conservatives on the United States Supreme Court.
On impeachment, US House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-South Carolina, said on CNN’s State of the Union, “If the public ever feels that we are being political with this, we will have done a tremendous harm to the country, to the Constitution, and to the people that we are sworn to serve.” Clyburn knows that in the court of public opinion, how the public “feels” about the impeachment proceedings against President Trump is far more important than the facts of the case.
President Trump can be “indicted” in a formal proceeding like the impeachment hearings but exonerated in the court of public opinion. That’s what happened to President Bill Clinton in 1998.
On December 19, 1998, President Clinton was “indicted” when a GOP-led US House voted to impeach him on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice. The very next day, Gallup polling revealed that the president’s job approval had spiked to a record 73%, higher than President Ronald Reagan’s ever was. Clinton was not indicted in the court that mattered, the court of public opinion.
There is no better proof of the political primacy of the court of public opinion than the irony that it was Republicans who lost ground in the General Election of 1998 during the height of the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal. Republicans lost because voters “felt” that the GOP US House leaders were handling the impeachment inquiry in a vengeful and blatantly partisan political manner.
On November 3, 1998, Democrats gained seats in the US House, the first time since 1934 that the party in the White House picked up seats during a mid-term election year. GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich lost his job. In North Carolina, Democrats took back the NC House from Republicans, and Republican US Sen. Lauch Faircloth was defeated by political upstart Democrat John Edwards.
US House Republicans learned the hard way in 1998 that you can’t win just by exploiting the misfortunes of a scandal-plagued president. That strategic misjudgment could easily be repeated this year if, as Rep. James Clyburn said, the “public ever feels” that the US House Democrats are “being political” with the Trump impeachment hearings.
Your character is more than your worst mistakes
If US House Democrats vote out articles of impeachment against President Trump, the most formidable challenge then becomes the fact that US Senate Democrats have only 47 of the 67 votes needed for conviction.
Where are Democrats going to find 20 Republicans to vote against President Trump when, per NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted October 27-30, a whopping 91% of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing and 90% oppose removing him from office? It would be political suicide.
If you do not understand why 91% of Republicans remain loyal to President Trump, consider the similarities between Trump and President Clinton.
During the impeachment hearings, President Clinton’s supporters knew that he cheated on his wife time and time again and lied about it time and time again; lied to her, the country, and the Congress. But they also knew that Clinton cared deeply about them. He stood up for people like them.
Your character is more than your worst mistakes. Caring is character too. It’s one of the great political lessons from the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal.
Like Clinton, President Trump enjoys the solid support of his base despite his character flaws. They know he cares about them deeply. He stands boldly for their causes. He’s making America great again!
There are many other similarities. Both Presidents Clinton and Trump have presided over historic periods of economic expansion. They both seem to love life on the edge. Taking risks.
Both are political geniuses. Self-absorbed and self-righteous. They share a solid reputation for having a loose grip on the truth. But despite all of their faults, their supporters believe deep down inside that they truly want to make the world a better place. That they care.
If American voters believe that Democrats are not judging President Trump with fairness but impeaching him with avengeance, they will lose in the court of public opinion. If they lose in the court of public opinion, they will not get bipartisan support for articles of impeachment, and certainly not get 20 Republican senators to vote “guilty.”
That’s why the US House Democrats are treading on thin ice with the impeachment hearings. If they fail to convict President Trump in the court of public opinion, they can say goodbye to the White House until 2024 and say hello to a 7-2 conservative US Supreme Court for many years to come.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
Book John Davis to speak at your 2019-2020 meetings!
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
If George W and Ellen DeGeneres Can be Friends then Gov Cooper, Sen Berger and Rep Moore Can Back H140 October 10, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 9 8:13 am Partisan Districts Are One of the Two Root Causes of Partisan Incivility Partisan districts are one of the two root causes of the partisan incivility in
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If George W and Ellen DeGeneres Can be Friends then Gov Cooper, Sen Berger and Rep Moore Can Back H140
October 10, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 9 8:13 am
Partisan Districts Are One of the Two Root Causes of Partisan Incivility
Partisan districts are one of the two root causes of the partisan incivility in America today. That’s because partisan zealots who live in those districts demand that their representatives stick to partisan ideals, even if nothing gets done. Compromise with the enemy and you lose your next primary race.
Ideals have become more important than deals. Republican ideals and Democratic ideals; the ideals of African-American voters and Hispanic voters in their majority-minority districts. Deal making, essential to incremental progress on the needs of the state and nation, has become an act of betrayal.
Too many partisan districts in a state guarantees ongoing ideological incivility.
According to an analysis of the latest proposed North Carolina legislative maps conducted by Dr. Michael Bitzer, head of the Catawba College Department of Politics, 102 of 120 House districts are either “likely” to elect one party over the other or clearly “lean” to the favor of one party. Among the 50 Senate districts, 40 are in “likely/lean” districts. The races are over before they start.
This means 85% – 90% of North Carolina lawmakers are elected in partisan districts where the voters actually encourage them not to compromise their partisan values. Or else.
So, how do we end the interminable litigation and redrawing of political maps? By having the voters approve a constitutional amendment next March 3, 2020, establishing a nonpartisan redistricting commission and process for mapmaking, along with criteria, that will give everyone a fair shake.
H140, the FAIR (Fairness and Integrity in Redistricting) Act, a bill in the North Carolina House filed in February, does just that. It calls for a referendum to ask voters to permanently establish in the state constitution the criteria for drawing the state’s political districts that precludes the use of data “which would identify … the voting tendencies of any group of citizens.” See Bill Summary: H140.
The latest Public Policy Polling statewide survey of North Carolina voters shows game changing bipartisan support (62%/9%) for nonpartisan mapping of the state’s political districts. Only 5% of Democratic voters are against nonpartisan maps, only 9% of independent voters are against nonpartisan maps, and most significantly, only 15% of North Carolina Republicans are against nonpartisan maps.
The poll question read: Would you support or oppose changing North Carolina law so that Congressional and Legislative districts are drawn in a nonpartisan fashion? Support/Oppose by partisan affiliation: Democrats 69%/5%; Independents 68%/9%; Republicans 49%/15%.
The timing is right for Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, Republican Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger and Republican House Speaker Tim Moore to get behind a bill like H140.
As Senator Phil Berger said in a September 3, 2019 statement, “Nearly a decade of relentless litigation has strained the legitimacy of this state’s institutions, and the relationship between its leaders, to the breaking point. It’s time to move on.”
Second of the Two Root Causes of Partisan Incivility is Moral Superiority
Moral superiority. That’s the second of the two root causes of partisan incivility in America. Public policy issues have become moral issues. Good versus evil. You can’t compromise your morals. You must not associate with politically immoral voters. Stay huddled at a distance with your moral tribe.
But wait. There is hope! There are signs that many influential Americans are so tired of partisan gridlock that they are willing to demonstrate, by their actions, that civility among partisans is possible. It’s what former President George W. Bush and Laura Bush did last Sunday when they sat with Ellen DeGeneres and her wife at the Dallas Cowboys game. It sparked a liberal outcry.
Monday, on the Ellen DeGeneres Show, Ellen addressed the resentfulness of liberals over her sitting with conservative Republicans at a football game … and appearing to enjoy their company.
“Here’s the thing: I’m friends with George Bush,” DeGeneres began. “In fact, I’m friends with a lot of people who don’t share the same beliefs that I have. We’re all different, and I think we’ve forgotten that that’s ok, that we’re all different…but just because I don’t agree with someone on everything doesn’t mean that I’m not doing to be friends with them.”
DeGeneres concluded, “When I say, ‘be kind to one another,’ I don’t only mean the people that think the same way that you do. I mean be kind to everyone. Doesn’t matter.”
This is how liberal US Supreme Court Justice Sonya Sotomayor welcomed new conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the court. She said on The Axe Files that she greeted Justice Kavanaugh the same way Justice Thomas told her he was greeted, “I judge you by what you do here. Welcome.”
“We’re a family,” Justice Sotomayor went on to say, “each of us with our own burdens and our own obligations to others. But this is our work family, and it’s just as important as our personal family.”
We are a nation of political factions gridlocked and estranged; uncivil. The two root causes of incivility are the predominance of partisan districts, where voters demand partisan ideals over deals, and moral superiority, the divisive, self-righteous attitude fostered by too many of today’s partisan leaders.
It’s time to move on from the root causes of political incivility. It’s time to urge our leaders to back a bill like H140, the FAIR Act, that will greatly reduce the number of partisan districts in the state. It’s time to ask our leaders to shift their focus from ideals to deals and to start treating each other like family.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Book John Davis to speak at your 2019-2020 meetings!
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
A Nation & State in Check Politically Explains Why Voters are Angry and 2020 Advantages are Fleeting September 24, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 8 8:13 am Absolutely No Political Leader Has a Guaranteed 2020 Advantage We are a nation and state in which partisan leaders of every government branch are in political check. It’s why
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A Nation & State in Check Politically Explains Why Voters are Angry and 2020 Advantages are Fleeting
September 24, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 8 8:13 am
Absolutely No Political Leader Has a Guaranteed 2020 Advantage
We are a nation and state in which partisan leaders of every government branch are in political check. It’s why federal leaders in Washington are gridlocked on issues important to voters like immigration, gun violence and health care. It’s why state leaders in Raleigh can’t pass a budget.
A gridlocked nation and state in check at every turn is why voters are furious. It is why absolutely no partisan leader, from the White House and the US Congress to the Governor’s Mansion and the General Assembly, has a guaranteed 2020 political advantage.
President Trump has been checked from day one by disloyal federal bureaucrats, who can’t be fired, undermining his every move. Checked by angry, indictment-hungry US House Democrats using congressional oversight power to orchestrate justification for Articles of Impeachment.
Ironically, the Democratic House caucus is itself checked by feuding factions over impeachment; a divided caucus led by aging, out-of-touch leaders from by-gone eras checked by disrespectful squads of youthful, more liberal insurgents.
We are a nation in political check at every turn. Left and right. Rich and poor. Men and women of all races, ethnicities, sexual orientations, religions and political persuasions. The wealthy checked by the wealthy. Generations by generations. Liberal federal judges checked by conservative judges.
Highly Qualified But Partisan Federal Judges
President Trump has also been checked time-and-time-again by President Barack Obama’s 327 confirmed liberal federal judges and two liberal US Supreme Court Justices, Sonya Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. But, turnabout in ideological court packing is fair play.
Today, liberal members of the federal judiciary find themselves checked by President Trump’s 152 confirmed conservatives on the federal bench, including two US Supreme Court Justices, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, confirmations that shifted the nation’s highest court to 5-4 conservative.
According to this morning’s News & Observer, US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said in her speech in Raleigh last night to Meredith College students and faculty that the politization of the Supreme Court needs to stop. “I hope I live to see the day when we go back to the way it was, and the way it should be.” said Ginsburg.
Meanwhile, we have conservative judges and justices checking their liberal associates.
As Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-SC, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said in a statement celebrating President Trump’s 150th federal judge earlier this month, “I will continue to push through highly qualified, conservative judges at all levels of the federal courts.”
NC Capital Press Corp and White House Press Checked by Social Media
Time was, the Capital Press corps in Raleigh and the White House press corps in DC had the dominant influence on public perceptions of what was politically newsworthy; perceptions of who was the saint and who the sinner in the epic battles over government’s moral obligations.
Not anymore. The moment the 487,000 print and 3 million digital editions of the New York Times are delivered with negative stories about President Trump, he can refute the allegations in a matter of seconds with Tweets to his 64.5 million Twitter followers.
Today, the political influence of traditional state and national political news sources is checked by Internet-based social media giants like Facebook (1.6 billion daily users), YouTube (149 million daily users), WhatsApp (1 billion daily users), Instagram (600 million daily users) and Twitter (134 million daily users). The once mighty Capital Press corps and the White House press corps checked.
Unfortunately, social media has now become the #1 source for political bias and misinformation. The #1 source for ruthless character assassination of political leaders with whom we disagree.
There is nowhere to turn for reliable news anymore, and so we turn to those we trust: our tribe.
The highest gap ever measured by Gallup between the parties on the matter of presidential job approval (86-points) was reported on September 19, 2019, with 91% of Republicans approving of the job President Trump is doing as compared to only 5% job approval among Democrats.
We are a nation of political factions gridlocked and estranged. Huddled at a suspicious distance from each other, smugly dismissive of anyone who dares to disagree; anyone who questions our moral superiority. Compromise be damned. You don’t negotiate with terrorists.
A gridlocked nation and state in check at every turn is why voters are furious. It’s why no leader in Washington or Raleigh has a guaranteed political advantage going into 2020.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Book John Davis to speak at your 2019-2020 meetings!
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, Pres/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
SCOTUS Upholds NC GOP Gerrymandering and Shifts Map Fairness Remedies to States and Congress June 27, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 7 11:13 am Time-honored right to partisan gerrymandering is upheld The US Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision split along partisan appointment lines, upheld the North Carolina Republican legislature’s partisan gerrymandered congressional maps in a
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SCOTUS Upholds NC GOP Gerrymandering and Shifts Map Fairness Remedies to States and Congress
June 27, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 7 11:13 am
Time-honored right to partisan gerrymandering is upheld
The US Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision split along partisan appointment lines, upheld the North Carolina Republican legislature’s partisan gerrymandered congressional maps in a ruling announced this morning in the Rucho v. Common Cause case. The decision, delivered by Chief Justice John Roberts, also concluded that under the US Constitution, any remedy to issues of partisan unfairness in mapmaking should be addressed by the states and the Congress, not the federal courts.
While acknowledging that “excessive partisanship in districting leads to results that reasonably seem unjust,” Chief Justice Roberts stated that partisan gerrymandering claims “present political questions beyond the reach of the federal courts.”
From now on, issues of partisan gerrymandering are for the states and the congress to decide.
Here are several highlights of the opinion:
“… the Constitution does not require proportional representation, and federal courts are neither equipped nor authorized to apportion political power as a matter of fairness.”
“This courts one-person, one-vote cases recognize that each person is entitled to an equal say in the election of representatives. It hardly follows from that principle that a person is entitled to have his political party achieve representation commensurate to its share of statewide support.”
“Vote dilution in the one-person, one-vote cases refers to the idea that each vote must carry equal weight. That requirement does not extend to political parties; it does not mean that each party must be influential in proportion to the number of its supporters.”
“… districting for some level of partisan advantage is not unconstitutional.”
Under today’s Rucho v. Common Cause ruling, the party that wins North Carolina’s legislative majorities in 2020 will still be able to enjoy the time-honored tradition of partisan gerrymandering.
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John N. Davis
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NC Association of Community College Trustees, Raleigh, NC, April 5, 2019
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way. As always, John Davis is the best, one-stop source for bi-partisan information in the most comprehensive and most entertaining package/presentation for audiences of various levels of political acumen.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association
Today US Supreme Court Rules on Constitutionality of North Carolina Partisan Gerrymandering June 27, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 6 6:13 am Will time-honored right to partisan gerrymandering be overturned? At 10 am this morning, Thursday, June 27, 2019, the US Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of partisan gerrymandering in North Carolina. The case,
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Today US Supreme Court Rules on Constitutionality of North Carolina Partisan Gerrymandering
June 27, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 6 6:13 am
Will time-honored right to partisan gerrymandering be overturned?
At 10 am this morning, Thursday, June 27, 2019, the US Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of partisan gerrymandering in North Carolina. The case, Rucho v. Common Cause, is one of the five final decisions of the term which began the first Monday of October 2018.
Rucho v. Common Cause has the potential of becoming one the most politically disruptive Supreme Court decisions in history. It stands to either affirm or overturn the time-honored right of the majority party in the state legislature to draw maps that favor the election of their party’s candidates.
Historically, unlike maps that discriminate against voters based on race, the US Supreme Court has ruled that maps that discriminate as to one party’s political advantage over another political party are okay. The authority to draw maps to your partisan advantage is simply one of the spoils of state legislative political warfare. If you want to draw the maps, then you must win the majority of legislative seats every 10 years at the time of redistricting.
Bottom line: American voters have never had a constitutional right of equality of partisan power. Restated for emphasis: Democratic and Republican voters have no constitutional right as a group to legislative and congressional district maps that give their party an equal chance to win an election.
That’s why I noted that today’s Rucho v. Common Cause decision could be one of the most politically disruptive Supreme Court decisions in history. If the court rules that partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional, it will overturn America’s winner-take-all system of two-party governance.
American politics is a winner-take-all system
American politics is a winner-take-all system. If your party wins the majority of the seats in a legislative chamber, even by only one seat, you get 100% of the committee chairs. You get to make the rules. Stack the committees so your bills get heard and your opponent’s bills get buried.
There is no such thing as a constitutional requirement for proportional representation in any of the three branches of state government based on the partisan share of the electorate. The state may be divided right down the middle with an equal number of Republicans and Democrats, but if you win the governor’s race by only 1 vote, you still win 100% of the power vested in the office of governor.
Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has the constitutional right to select loyal Democrats in 100% of his staff positions. All of his appointments to state boards and commissions can be loyal Democrats. All of his judicial appointments may be loyal Democrats.
The North Carolina Supreme Court is now a 6-1 Democratic majority thanks to two Democratic justices appointed by Governor Cooper. Appointing Democratic justices to fill unexpired terms is Gov. Cooper’s prerogative. Republican governors have exercised the same prerogative.
It is because of America’s time-honored, winner-take-all political system that I believe the court is more likely to uphold the right of the majority party to gerrymander congressional and legislative districts to their party’s advantage.
Further, my sense is that the US Supreme Court is getting weary of the clutter of politically motivated partisan gerrymandering cases every 10 years and will rule that those claims are no longer a matter for the federal courts. That means the individual states will have the exclusive responsibility for the determination of the fairness of partisan gerrymandering in their state.
According to the National Conference of State Legislators, seven states have a commission with the primary responsibility for drawing congressional maps. Other states have advisory commissions. In most states, the party in power in the legislature at the time of redistricting still draws the maps.
I’m betting on a decision today that upholds partisan gerrymandering as one of the spoils of partisan political warfare. A decision that also concludes that any remedy to issues of partisan unfairness in mapmaking should be addressed by the states, not the federal courts.
We shall soon see.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis to speak at your 2019 meetings!
NC Association of Community College Trustees, Raleigh, NC, April 5, 2019
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way. As always, John Davis is the best, one-stop source for bi-partisan information in the most comprehensive and most entertaining package/presentation for audiences of various levels of political acumen.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association
Trump’s Reelect Strategy is to Bring Out the Worst in Democrats So That They Will Defeat Themselves May 30, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 5 3:13 pm Trump learned from Roy Cohn In the court of voter opinion, Democrats are just as crooked as Republicans; an “indictment” does not have to be from a grand jury.
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Trump’s Reelect Strategy is to Bring Out the Worst in Democrats So That They Will Defeat Themselves
May 30, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 5 3:13 pm
Trump learned from Roy Cohn
In the court of voter opinion, Democrats are just as crooked as Republicans; an “indictment” does not have to be from a grand jury. A plausible accusation will do.
That’s why Democrats may want to wait until the next report from DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz, on the FBI’s handling of the Trump-Russia collusion investigation, before trying to gain a 2020 political advantage by proceeded with impeachment hearings against President Trump.
The probe into FBI surveillance abuses, which began March 28, 2018, is due any day. Then, on top of that 15-month inquiry, Attorney General Barr has just named John Durham, US Attorney for the District of Connecticut, to head an all-new investigation into “spying” on the Trump campaign.
Will these two investigations help Republicans build the case in 2020 for a plausible accusation that senior FBI officials were politically biased in obtaining FISA warrants to spy on the Trump campaign? That they relied on opposition research funded by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC?
That’s all Trump needs politically in 2020. A plausible accusation. An “indictment” against his accusers in the court of voter opinion.
Simply put, Democrats are not going to win an “indictment” fight with President Trump. He is the better street fighter. He cheats. He bites. He hits below the belt. He provokes reckless vengeance.
Donald Trump brings out the worst in his enemies, and then leans back in his chair and props his feet on his desk and watches as they destroy themselves.
Donald Trump’s mentor was Roy Cohn, Chief Counsel to Sen. Joe McCarthy in the 1950s “red scare” era; the Roy Cohn who advised McCarthy to advance unsubstantiated claims of Communist spies in the State Department and homosexuals in the CIA.
It was Roy Cohn who taught Trump to always stay on the offensive; attack, attack, attack. Hit back ten times every time you get hit. Never, ever admit you are wrong. Truth is irrelevant. It’s the hyperbole that people will believe; that the press will print. The only bad publicity is no publicity.
It was Roy Cohn who infamously said, “I bring out the worst in my enemies and that’s how I get them to defeat themselves.”
Democrats likely to hold US House, unless doomed by impeachment
Democrats are risking the US House majority in initiating impeachment hearings against President Trump. Despite a solid majority (235 to 197 with 3 vacancies, including NC 3 and NC 9), and history on their side, their hold on the House is fragile because voters are fed up with Washington.
The good news for Democrats is the history of US House turnover.
According to The Cook Political Report, the U.S. House majority has not flipped twice in a row since 1954 (it flipped in 2018). And, Republicans need to gain 18 pickups when the net partisan shift in the US House has been a single digit number in 7 of the last 8 presidential election years.
On the other hand, there are 31 U.S. House Democrats representing congressional districts won by President Trump in 2016. That number includes 22 newcomers to the U.S. House who defeated Republicans in primarily suburban Trump districts in 2018.
There are three dangers I see for these newcomers in the House Democratic Caucus. One, there is a danger of being lured too far to the left by the fresh-faced liberals in the caucus who could never get elected with their issues in a district carried by Trump.
The second danger I see is that many will invariably make the typical freshman mistake of assuming voters chose them because of their superior intellect and leadership ability rather than because suburban voters, particularly white women, were disgusted with Trump or had given up on their Republican representative.
The third danger? Impeachment hearings.
Democrats already have their hands full for 2020. Whether it’s the 24 Democratic presidential candidates, the limited number of US Senate opportunities or the 31 US House seats held by Democrats in districts Trump won in 2016, Democrats have enough challenges to overcome without adding the challenge of a self-defeating impeachment trial.
Articles of Impeachment voted out of a Democrat-led US House will be seen as a partisan political move just like a party-line vote against the conviction of Trump in a Republican-led US Senate.
Voters are tired of the partisan rancor. They would prefer the Congress to focus on solving the problems of the day like immigration, healthcare, education, entitlements, military concerns, and the economy.
Impeachment hearings play right into President Trump’s 2020 reelection strategy of bringing out the worst in Democrats and letting them defeat themselves.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis to speak at your 2019 meetings!
NC Association of Community College Trustees, Raleigh, NC, April 5, 2019
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way. As always, John Davis is the best, one-stop source for bi-partisan information in the most comprehensive and most entertaining package/presentation for audiences of various levels of political acumen.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
North Carolina Among Most Politically Competitive States Complicated by Divided Government and Fast Growth April 26, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 4 9:13 am NC’s High Degree of Difficulty for Campaigning and Governing Gallup’s annual Political Composition of the 50 US States, based on an aggregate of daily tracking polls across the year 2018, shows that
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North Carolina Among Most Politically Competitive States Complicated by Divided Government and Fast Growth
April 26, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 4 9:13 am
NC’s High Degree of Difficulty for Campaigning and Governing
Gallup’s annual Political Composition of the 50 US States, based on an aggregate of daily tracking polls across the year 2018, shows that Massachusetts is the most Democratic-friendly state, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 29 points. The most Republican-friendly state is Wyoming, where the GOP enjoys a 34-point advantage over the number of Democrats.
North Carolina? Right in the middle. A perfectly balanced swing state. Among the Top 10 Most Competitive in the United States, says Gallup. Where 42% of North Carolina voters are Republican/Lean Republican and 41% are Democratic/Lean Democratic.
The Top-10 Most Democratic-friendly states are Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii, New York, Maryland, California, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and Washington.
The Top-10 Most Republican-friendly states are Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, Alaska, Alabama, Idaho, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and West Virginia.
The Top 10 Most Competitive States include Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Texas, and Ohio.
Being a Top 10 Most Competitive state means the degree of difficulty for winning campaigns and governing is high compared to the states where one party has a clear advantage. Two other factors are further complicating North Carolina politics, divided government and high population growth.
The National Conference of State Legislatures table of partisan power in the 50 states shows that only two of the Top 10 Most Competitive states have divided state governments, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Both have Republican legislatures and Democratic governors.
And then there’s this: four of the Top 10 Most Competitive states, including North Carolina, are also among the nation’s fastest growing. And 77% of North Carolina’s growth is from in-migration.
Dr. Rebecca Tippett with Carolina Demography in Chapel Hill, reported last December that North Carolina had the fourth largest number of newcomers migrating to the state. Where are they coming from? New York, New Jersey and California are the three leading states. The three leading countries adding to North Carolina’s in-migration newcomers are India, China and Mexico.
The Great Partisan Sorting of the United States
The fifty states are sorting themselves out by party.
In every state but one, Minnesota, both legislative chambers have partisan majorities from the same party. Per the New York Times, “It is the first time in more than a century that only one state has split control of its legislative chambers.”
Other than Minnesota, every state has either Republican majorities in both chambers (30 states) or Democratic majorities in both (18 states). Exception: Nebraska (unicameral/nonpartisan).
There are 22 states where Republicans have all of the power (Governor and legislature), 14 state where Democrats have all of the power, and 13 states where the power is divided, like North Carolina.
So, what can candidates running in 2020 expect in a highly competitive state with divided political power and a fast-growing population? You can expect expensive, close races. Examples:
- In 2016, Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper, Democratic nominee for governor, raised $24.2 million to $16.8 million raised by Republican Gov. Pat McCrory, considered the most vulnerable governor in the United States, and won by only 10,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.
- In 2016, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall won by only 52% of the vote, a close call considering her GOP opponent only spent $27,241 and won 48% of the statewide vote.
- In 2016, Democrats Auditor Beth Wood and Atty. Gen. Josh Stein, and Republicans Superintendent of Public Instruction Mark Johnson and Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey, won their races with only 50% of the vote plus their small margin of victory.
North Carolina is one of the few states rated most competitive that also has a divided government and high population growth driven by in-migration from around the country and world. It’s where politics is much like playoff hockey. Leave it all on the ice or go home. Go Canes!
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis to speak at your 2019 meetings!
NC Association of Community College Trustees, Raleigh, NC, April 5, 2019
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way. As always, John Davis is the best, one-stop source for bi-partisan information in the most comprehensive and most entertaining package/presentation for audiences of various levels of political acumen.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees