NC Among Top States Likely to Spend the Most on Media in Races for US President, US Senate and Governor January 27, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 1 9:13 am Political Briefing: If you are interested in having me brief your company or trade group on the status of 2020 federal and state campaigns, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com
[More…]
NC Among Top States Likely to Spend the Most on Media in Races for US President, US Senate and Governor
January 27, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 1 9:13 am
Political Briefing: If you are interested in having me brief your company or trade group on the status of 2020 federal and state campaigns, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com
Citizens United Decision in 2010 Opened the Independent $ Floodgate
On January 21, 2010, the US Supreme Court ruled in the Citizens United case that wealthy individuals, corporations and trade associations can spend an unlimited amount on political campaigns as long as they do so independently. Just hire your own consultants and create your own ads.
The Citizens United ruling is why Michael Bloomberg, former New York City mayor and current Democratic Presidential Primary contender, can make good on his threat to spend $1 billion of his own fortune to defeat President Trump. He said if he loses the nomination, he will still spend $1 billion to defeat Trump, “even it means helping nominees like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.”
If you doubt Bloomberg’s commitment, consider that his net worth is $60 billion, he has already spent $258 million of his own money on his presidential ads, and he paid $11 million for a Super Bowl TV ad. According to Advertising Analytics, from January 18-24, Michael Bloomberg had the #1 most played ad for the week, “Defeat Donald Trump,” which aired 14,174 times.
Unlimited independent political spending is the floodgate Citizens United opened in 2010.
A new study released this month by the Center for Responsive Politics reveals that only about $375 million was spent independently on political races per decade from 1990 to 2010. Since 2010?
- $4.5 billion has been spent by non-party independent groups since 2010
- Wealthy individual donors, not corporations, now have the dominant financial influence
- Top 10 most generous donors contributed 1.2 billion to independent groups since 2010
Here in North Carolina, we saw the impact of the Citizens United ruling during the 2016 races for governor and other statewide campaigns when $33.1 million was spent by outside independent groups, per an analysis by Facing South. Outside groups spent $16.4 million just in the governor’s race.
NC Governor’s Race Likely #1 in US for Political Media Spending
If you add the $16.4 million spent by outside groups to the $16.8 million spent by then-Gov. Pat McCrory, R-Mecklenburg, and the $24.2 million spent by then-AG Roy Cooper, D-Nash, a total of $57.4 million was spent in the last governor’s race in North Carolina. This explains how North Carolina’s 2016 race for governor was #1 in the nation in TV ad spending in the General Election.
Looking ahead at 2020 spending on the governor’s race, Advertising Analytics projects that North Carolina will likely be the top governor’s race for spending on political media at $56 million. And remember, this is only the projection for political media. Look for closer to $75 million to be spent in the North Carolina’s governor’s race in 2020, with 1/3 of that amount likely spent by outside groups.
NC Presidential and US Senate Likely in Top 5 Spending for Political Media
Citizen’s United was also responsible for the $86 million spent independently by outside groups in the 2014 race for the US Senate in North Carolina. That was when then-NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Cabarrus defeated incumbent US Sen. Kay Hagan, D-Guilford. Almost $40 million was spent on ads attacking Tillis by outside groups in 2014; $21 million was spent attacking Sen. Kay Hagan.
With the $86 million spent by outside groups, total spending in North Carolina’s 2014 Senate race was $124 million, making it the #1 most expensive US Senate race in the country.
So, what can we expect in 2020 in the US Senate race in North Carolina? More of the same, for two reasons: One, Sen. Thom Tillis is on the very short list of the most vulnerable US Senators. Two, the US Supreme Court, now 5-4 conservative, is at stake. Nothing is more consequential in 2020 than who nominates (President) and who confirms (US Senate) the next nominee to the Nation’s highest court.
As for likely 2020 political media spending by candidates running in the US Senate race, Advertising Analytics projects that North Carolina will see $74 million spent just on political media. That makes North Carolina #3 in the amount likely spent on political media in a 2020 US Senate race.
Advertising Analytics also projects that North Carolina will be #5 in the nation in media spending in the presidential race. Forecast: $122 million.
Everything is at stake in 2020. The President, US Supreme Court, US Senate and House; the Governor, Council of State, Appellate Judiciary, the General Assembly … and the next maps!
Truly one of the most consequential … and expensive … election years of our lifetime.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
