November 3, 2020 Election Results for US and NC Races November 4, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 12 3:13 pm Trump wins North Carolina; 74.56% turnout! Trump wins North Carolina. As of today, a total of 5,487,252 North Carolina ballots have been cast in the 2020 General Election, a record turnout of 74.56%. And, [More…]
November 3, 2020 Election Results for US and NC Races
November 4, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 12 3:13 pm
Trump wins North Carolina; 74.56% turnout!
Trump wins North Carolina. As of today, a total of 5,487,252 North Carolina ballots have been cast in the 2020 General Election, a record turnout of 74.56%. And, as of this writing, President Donald Trump is carrying North Carolina with 2,732,084 to former Vice President Joe Biden’s 2,655,383.
As to whether Trump or Biden will be president during the next four years, we will have to wait a couple weeks due to likely recounts and litigation. NOTE: In the event of a tie in the Electoral College or with no one receiving the required 270 votes, each US house delegation will cast one vote on behalf of their state. In that event, North Carolina’s one vote would go to President Trump with an 8 to 5 vote of the newly elected congressional delegation.
Meanwhile, the President’s charge of fraud during his 2 o’clock am statement at the White House this morning is the latest example of why he alone is the master of his fate. Many voters, especially white women in the suburbs who abandoned Trump after voting for him in 2016, are tired of his chaotic and insulting style of leadership.
If Trump loses, he will have no one to blame but himself.
The same can be said for Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who did not defeat a single Republican Member of Congress in her failed attempt to expand the Democratic majority yesterday. Four years of Democratic House vendetta-driven fiascos like the Russian collusion investigation, the Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings, and the impeachment hearings were seen by many Americans as an abuse of power for partisan political gain.
Pelosi has no one to blame but herself if she is not reelected by her caucus as speaker.
Meanwhile, the good news for the economy and public policy is that we are still a divided government at the state and federal levels. That means no one can run over the other with extremist initiatives, left or right. It means that bipartisan consensus is the ONLY pathway to progress on all the important issues of the day from a new stimulus bill to infrastructure spending and healthcare reform.
Every faction is checked by one or another of the branches of government at all levels. To get some of what you want, you will have to give your partisan opponents some of what they want.
Most importantly, all political leaders are accountable to the voters, who made it abundantly clear yesterday that no matter how much money you have or how much power you wield, they will decide who stays and who goes. The US Senate is likely to stay in the hands of Republicans.
US Senate 51-49 GOP IF MI and GA GOP hold leads; Tillis wins
Democrats had a bad night in US Senate races, despite a spending advantage of a couple of billion dollars, as the US Senate appears to be more likely on track to stay in the hands of Republicans. As expected, Republicans Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona and Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado lost their races, and Democrat Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama (Sen. Jeff Sessions seat) lost to former Auburn football coach Tommy Turberville.
One of the biggest surprises of the night was the reelection of Sen. Susan Collins of Maine. It is estimated that over $100 million was spent against Collins by liberal groups who turned against her for being the decisive vote confirming Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Other Republicans who were considered vulnerable but who were elected include Cornyn in Texas, Ernst in Iowa, Graham in South Carolina, Marshall in Kansas, and Daines in Montana.
Ballots are still being counted in Michigan (Democratic Gary Peters is behind GOP challenger John James at 1:32 pm) and in Georgia, where GOP Sen. David Perdue is ahead by over 150,000 votes at 1:32 pm. There will be a January runoff in Georgia between GOP incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock because neither candidate received the required 50% of the total votes.
Note: If GOP challenger John James holds his lead in Michigan and Georgia Sen. David Perdue holds his lead, then the Senate becomes 51-49 Republican.
$239 million spent on Tillis-Cunningham race. Republican North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis has won a second term over Democrat Cal Cunningham, embattled by his sexting scandal, in the most expensive US Senate race in 2020. As of this writing, Tillis has 2,640,381 votes to Cunningham’s 2,543,692 votes (at 1:27 pm today).
NOTE: Thom Tillis defeated Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014 in the nation’s most expensive US Senate race that year. Total 2014 spending in the Tillis-Hagan race was $120 million, half of 2020 total.
US House Democratic “dumpster fire;” Speaker Pelosi is history
The US House will stay in the hands of Democrats, although with a smaller 227-208 majority (currently Democrats have a 233-201 majority; 1 Indep). Notably, not one single Republican incumbent was defeated by the Democrats in what was supposed to be a night of expanding their majority. “It’s a dumpster fire,” said one Democrat … anonymously.
The net loss for House Democrats is attributable to Speaker Pelosi’s misjudgments from the hyperpartisan impeachment hearings to her failure to negotiate a second stimulus bill this fall. With Speaker Pelosi’s Real Clear Politics “Favorable” score at a dismal 36.6% (Unfavorable 54%), and the overall Congressional job approval at an even more dismal 18% (72% disapprove), her quest to continue as speaker is doomed.
While Pelosi is likely out as Speaker, GOP House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will likely be reelected to head the GOP Caucus.
As expected, North Carolina’s US House delegation will total 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats:
Republicans: US House 3 Rep. Greg Murphy, US House 5 Rep. Virginia Foxx, US House 7 Rep. David Rouzer, US House 8 Rep. Richard Hudson, US House 9 Rep. Dan Bishop, US House 10 Rep. Patrick McHenry, US House 11 Madison Cawthorn (new), and US House 13 Rep. Ted Budd.
Democrats: US House 1 Rep. G.K. Butterfield, US House 2 Deborah Ross (new), US House 4 Rep. David Price, US House 6 Kathy Manning (new) and US House 12 Rep. Elma Adams.
Council of State. Although Gov. Cooper will be joined on the Council of State by Democrats Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Auditor Beth Wood and Attorney General Josh Stein, he will have to contend with a Republican majority State Senate and House and six Republicans on the Council of State, three incumbents and three newcomers.
Council of State incumbent Republicans winning another term include Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, Treasurer Dale Folwell, and Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey. Republican newcomers on the Council of State include GOP candidate for Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, Republican Josh Dobson who won the Labor Commissioner’s race, and Catherine Truitt, GOP winner for Superintendent of Public Instruction.
Republican Majority North Carolina General Assembly
Republicans won the majorities in both the State Senate (29-21) and House (68-52), thanks to their ongoing advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates despite years of legal wrangling by Democrats.
Holding the majority in both chambers of the General Assembly means Republicans will control the committees that draw the legislative and congressional district maps used for the remainder of the decade. Thanks to population growth, North Carolina’s new federal map will include one new congressional district (from 13 to 14), which will certainly be drawn to favor the election of a Republican.
The race for Chief Justice is razor-thin, with Republican Justice Paul Newby at 2,670,773 to 2,667,031 Democratic Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (at 1:50 pm). There are well more than enough outstanding mailed ballots that could flip the results of this race to Beasley between now and the final day for counting North Carolina absentee ballots, November 12.
However, the other seven appellate judiciary races won by GOP candidates are likely decided.
When the final ballots are tabulated and the races are certified, all of us will have won some races and will be disappointed by the outcome of others. But the most important thing we must now resolved to do is to accept the results and vow to start fresh with a renewed commitment to finding ways to forge bipartisan alliances to improve the greater good. That will only happen if we, the voters, demand it of our newly elected leaders.
As I said last week, it is time to end the partisan estrangement. It is poisoning our society. Everyone has a personal story about the formation of their political judgment, the judgment they use to make their political decisions in the voting booth. If we knew each other’s stories, we would understand why we voted the way we voted this fall. If we knew each other’s stories we would not be as likely to question each other’s motives or political choices.
It is time to have a cup of coffee with someone who voted differently from you. Not to talk about politics or public policy, but to share your stories of the formation of your political judgment.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
Final Forecasts for US and NC Races Based on Late Events That Expose Partisan Strengths and Weaknesses October 29, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 11 9:13 am Political malfeasance in front of 63 million voters October 22, 2020, 10:22 pm. If the Trump-Biden presidential debate last Thursday night had ended at 10:22 pm, the [More…]
Final Forecasts for US and NC Races Based on Late Events That Expose Partisan Strengths and Weaknesses
October 29, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 11 9:13 am
Political malfeasance in front of 63 million voters
October 22, 2020, 10:22 pm. If the Trump-Biden presidential debate last Thursday night had ended at 10:22 pm, the moment Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden glanced down at his watch to check the time, he may still be in the running in battleground states like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Regrettably, for Biden and his supporters, the debate did not end until after he was pressed by President Trump with the question, “Would you close down the oil industry?” to which Joe Biden answered, “I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” adding, “the oil industry pollutes, significantly.”
Snap. Just like that, states where American families depend on oil industry jobs, like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, moved into the column of those President Trump is now likely to win.
Biden hemorrhaging votes on left and right over oil. Joe Biden was already in trouble with Bernie Sanders and the Green New Deal Democrats over his flipflopping on banning hydraulic fracturing (fracking). Now, he is in trouble with the over-10 million workers who are proud to have helped make the United States energy independent as the world’s #1 producer of oil and natural gas.
Timing is everything in politics. Announcing during an economic crisis to 63 million people watching the debate that you are going to close down an industry that, per PricewaterhouseCoopers, contributes $1.3 trillion to the US economy along with 10.3 million jobs, is political malfeasance.
That one event may cost Biden the presidency and hurt NC down-ballot Democrats on Tuesday.
Anger has rotted the foundation of the Democratic Party
“Cowards” and “Spineless enablers.” There she goes again. Hillary Clinton, in a New York Times podcast released Monday, called Republicans who support President Trump “cowards” and “spineless enablers.” In 2016, she called Donald Trump supporters “a basket of deplorables.”
My wife and I are fortunate to have a large family and an extended family of lifelong friends. Many of our friends and family members are supporting former Vice President Joe Biden in the presidential race and many are supporting President Trump. Those who are voting for Trump are not “cowards” or “spineless enablers” of the president. They are simply life-long Republicans.
However, because of angry Democrats like Hillary Clinton, most of our Trump friends would not dare put a sign in their yard or a bumper sticker on their car. They have clammed up. They are among the silent voters of 2020 who also would not tell a stranger conducting a poll that they are for Trump.
That is why I believe the polls are off this year, by two to three points, on Trump’s support.
There is no greater threat to Democrats than their four-year inability to accept the legitimacy of the Trump victory in 2016. It has meant four years of Democrats echoing Hillary Clinton in calling President Trump supporters “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic.”
Four years of vendetta-driven political fiascos. The Russian collusion investigation, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings, the impeachment hearings and trial of President Trump, the “Cancel Culture” fiasco (think political correctness on steroids or “you’re a racist if you disagree with me”), and most recently, the “Defund the Police” while I loot and burn your business fiasco.
Anger has rotted the Democratic party’s foundation and created an environment so hostile that no Trump supporter, especially in Democrat-friendly urban areas, would dare tell a pollster the truth.
Enthusiasm trumps money in voter turnout
Anemic Biden rallies vs. MAGA enthusiasm. Anemic turnout for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris (and former President Barack Obama) at their political rallies is another late event that has me concluding that the campaign is in a tailspin and will likely lose next Tuesday.
Meanwhile, President Trump is speaking to tens-of-thousands of enthusiastic supporters day after day, many of whom wait all day, some in the cold rain under their MAGA hats, all just to see him arrive on Air Force One. He speaks for an hour and a half and the excitement at the conclusion is just as palpable as when he arrived at the podium.
Enthusiasm trumps money in turnout. An enthusiasm advantage has always meant a turnout advantage. Add the Trump enthusiasm to a GOP four-year, door-to-door ground game aimed at registering new Trump voters and fine-tuning turnout operations and you can readily see the potential for surprise upsets next Tuesday favoring Republicans in close races.
Per a report earlier this month by David Wasserman, Cook Political Report, of the six states Trump won by less than 5 points in 2016, four — Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania — voter registration trends are more robust for the GOP. “If the race tightens,” writes Wasserman, “or there’s a substantial polling error, Trump’s superior base growth could make a difference in a few tight states — and call into question why the Biden campaign chose to forgo hitting the streets.”
Yes, Democrats have the most money by far, federal and state races. The latest campaign finance reports, per OpenSecrets.org, show the Biden campaign raising a record-breaking $938 million through October 14, with President Trump’s campaign reporting $596 million, or only 61% of Biden’s haul. Here is the context: In 2016, Donald Trump raised only 58% of Hillary Clinton’s total (Trump $564 million; Clinton $973 million) and beat her soundly in the Electoral College.
US Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett. And finally, there is no greater proof of Trump’s ability to shake up the federal swamp than his appointment of over-200 federal judges and three justices on the United States Supreme Court, now 6-to-3 conservative thanks to this week’s newcomer, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a working mom with seven kids. Who knows, the Barrett appointment may even inspire a few votes for Trump from those illusive suburban white women who otherwise wouldn’t dare vote for him.
Federal Races: Likely Winners
Trump will win a second term and carry North Carolina. Other battleground states likely to vote for Trump include Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Texas, and Arizona, giving Trump 278 electoral college votes (270 needed to win).
The US Senate will stay in the hands of Republicans, likely 51-49, despite their loss of Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona, and Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado. Former Auburn football coach Tommy Turberville will defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama (Sen. Jeff Sessions seat). Also, look for a surprise upset in Michigan where GOP challenger John James is giving Democratic US Sen. Gary Peters fits. A James win would give the GOP a 52-48 seat majority.
Republican North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis will win a second term over Democrat Cal Cunningham, who will lose support even among Democrats over matters of sexual misconduct.
The US House will stay in the hands of Democrats who will suffer a net loss after more Americans blame Congressional Democrats (41%) than Congressional Republicans (25%) or Pres. Trump (19%) for the failure of Congress to pass a coronavirus stimulus bill, according to poll results released Wednesday morning by Politico/Morning Consult.
Speaker Pelosi’s misjudgments from the partisan impeachment hearings to the latest stimulus bill doom her quest to continue as speaker. Pelosi’s Real Clear Politics “Favorable” score is 36.6% (Unfavorable 54%), below Pres. Trump’s 42% “Favorable” score (Unfavorable 54.8%).
The North Carolina US House delegation will total 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats:
Republicans: US House 3 Rep. Greg Murphy, US House 5 Rep. Virginia Foxx, US House 7 Rep. David Rouzer, US House 8 Rep. Richard Hudson, US House 9 Rep. Dan Bishop, US House 10 Rep. Patrick McHenry, US House 11 Madison Cawthorn (new), and US House 13 Rep. Ted Budd.
Democrats: US House 1 Rep. G.K. Butterfield, US House 2 Deborah Ross (new), US House 4 Rep. David Price, US House 6 Kathy Manning (new) and US House 12 Rep. Elma Adams.
NOTE: In the event of a tie in the Electoral College or with no one receiving the required 270 votes, each US house delegation will cast one vote on behalf of their state. In that event, North Carolina’s vote would go to Pres. Trump with an 8 to 5 vote of the delegation listed above.
State Races: Likely Winners
Governor: The biggest surprise upset next week will be the defeat of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper by Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest. Per Gallup, North Carolina is the 8th most “Very Religious” state. Forest has been a champion of religious conservatives on issues opposed by Gov. Cooper from school choice to pro-life, and no group is more exhilarated over new US Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett than religious conservatives. They will turn out in record numbers statewide.
Forest has also been an advocate of managing the coronavirus while opening the state when Gov. Cooper has insisted that the state remain closed, which is to say to business, education, religious leaders and those who need to get back to work that they cannot be trusted to manage reopening.
Council of State likely winners include incumbent Democrats Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Auditor Beth Wood and Attorney General Josh Stein, along with incumbent Republicans Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler and Treasurer Dale Folwell.
Newcomers favored to win positions on the Council of State include Republican candidate for Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, along with Republican Josh Dobson, candidate for Labor Commissioner, and Catherine Truitt, GOP nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction.
The race for Insurance Commissioner has been a Toss-Up all year between incumbent Republican Mike Causey and former Democratic Commissioner Wayne Goodwin, although a Trump/Tillis/Forest trifecta would give the odds to Causey.
The North Carolina General Assembly is likely to stay in the hands of Republicans, thanks to their ongoing advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates. According to Michael Bitzer with Catawba College, one of the state’s leading experts on the partisan leanings of congressional and legislative districts, Republicans enjoy a 27-to-19 advantage in the number of state Senate seats that favor one party or the other. They need 26 wins to hold the majority. On the North Carolina House side, Bitzer’s analysis shows a 69-to-47 seat advantage in the number of seats that favor one party or the other, with 61 wins needed to hold the majority.
North Carolina appellate judiciary races for seats on the Supreme Court and Court of Appeals will likely go to the party that wins the presidential contest. We live in a time of hyper-partisanship. There will be little ticket-splitting in races where the only thing voters know about the candidates is their party affiliation.
All three branches of government at the federal and state levels are up for grabs next Tuesday. By the end of the day, the races will be over. When the dust settles, each of us will win some races and be disappointed by the outcome of others. But the most important thing we must do next week is to accept the final results and vow to start fresh with a renewed commitment to finding ways to forge bipartisan alliances to improve the greater good.
It is time to end the partisan estrangement. It is poisoning our society. Everyone has a personal story about the formation of their political judgment, the judgment they use to make their political decisions in the voting booth. If we knew each other’s stories, we would understand why we vote the way we vote. We would not likely question other voters’ motives or feel contempt for their political preferences.
It’s time to have a cup of coffee with someone who voted differently from you. Not to talk about politics or public policy, but to share your stories of the formation of your political judgment.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
How Democrats Squandered the Political Authority to Select Justice Ginsburg’s Supreme Court Successor September 27, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 10 10:13 am Ginsburg First Woman & Jewish American to Lie in State at US Capitol On Friday morning, September 25, 2020, US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg became the first woman and first Jewish [More…]
How Democrats Squandered the Political Authority to Select Justice Ginsburg’s Supreme Court Successor
September 27, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 10 10:13 am
Ginsburg First Woman & Jewish American to Lie in State at US Capitol
On Friday morning, September 25, 2020, US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg became the first woman and first Jewish American to lie in state in the US Capitol. A well-earned distinction. I cannot think of anyone in my lifetime that I have grown to admire more than the Notorious RBG.
Justice Ginsburg’s wish was that her replacement be selected by the winner of the presidential race in November, surely with hopes that the winner would be the Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden. Afterall, she was the lioness of the left wing of the Court.
Unfortunately, DC Democrats have squandered the political authority to pick Ginsburg’s replacement due to four years of vendetta-driven political fiascos over the loss of the White House to Donald Trump. Those fiascos include the Russian collusion investigation, the confirmation hearings of President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the impeachment hearings and trial of President Trump, the Cancel Culture (“you’re a racist if you disagree with me”) fiasco, and, most recently, the “Defund the Police” while I loot and burn your business fiasco.
The authority and honor to select Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s successor will instead go to President Trump and the Republican majority members in the US Senate who have already secured the 51 votes needed to confirm the nominee.
President Trump announced his nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, a judge on the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago, on Saturday, in the White House Rose Garden. Barrett, a former law professor at Notre Dame, is the mother of seven children, two adopted from Haiti, and a devout Catholic.
Trump and Tillis now likely to win with Barrett as running mate
Politically, the confirmation hearings on Judge Barrett will be a boon for President Trump and Republicans in toss-up races like Sen. Thom Tillis, R-NC. It shifts the attention of voters away from the coronavirus, which is good politically for Trump, and gives Tillis, a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, an opportunity to prove his conservative bona fides to Republicans in North Carolina, ranked the 8th most “Very Religious” state by Gallup’s State of the States national study.
Judge Barrett, a working mom, will essentially be a running mate for both Trump and Tillis, which will likely increase their support from undecided suburban white women and increase turnout of faith-based voters. Barrett’s personal commitment to her young family and to her Catholic faith will endear her to Hispanic and Black voters, already showing up in polls as likely to vote for President Trump in record numbers over issues like school choice and economic opportunity zones.
Barrett’s confirmation will likely sail through the Senate before election day. That is because Senate Democrats cannot risk another confirmation fiasco like the Brett Kavanaugh hearings two years ago, a bungled character assassination attempt that contributed to the loss of four Democratic Senators in 2018.
In saying, “The way it was, was right,” Ginsburg was referring to the unanimous bipartisan confirmation of her friend Justice Antonin Scalia in 1986 and her near-unanimous confirmation in 1993.
In 1993, Ruth Bader Ginsburg received a bipartisan 96-3 vote in the U.S. Senate on her confirmation as a Supreme Court justice. Forty (40) of 43 Republican Senators voted for Ginsburg’s confirmation, despite her 10 years with the liberal stronghold ACLU (American Civil Liberties Union).
Even North Carolina’s newly elected conservative Republican Senator Lauch Faircloth voted for Ginsburg. (Sen. Jesse Helms, R-NC, was one of the three Republicans who voted against Ginsburg.)
As for the Kavanaugh hearing, bipartisan civility ended before the first witness was sworn in.
After failing to discredit Kavanaugh on his career or his view of the Constitution, Senate Democrats decided to destroy Kavanaugh’s character by revealing a letter from a teenage friend who said he groped her at a party during high school. She named four witnesses. Not one corroborated her story. No one at the party, including a life-long friend, recalled anything about the party.
The moment Senate Democrats abandoned the time-honored right of the accused to a presumption of innocence and insisted that we should “believe the woman” accuser without evidence or corroboration, the Kavanaugh hearings became a political fiasco with disastrous consequences.
Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation will likely sail through the Senate before election day, giving President Trump and Sen. Thom Tillis the political boost they need to win on November 3, all because DC Democrats squandered their political authority.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Virtual or On-Site Speech: For in a virtual or on-site political presentation for your upcoming meetings, check my availability here www.johndavisconsulting.com/speech-request/ for a 45-minute presentation on 2020 likely winners, federal and state races.
September 7, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 9 3:13 pm Labor Day Forecast: Trump & GOP US Senate; Democratic US House President Trump is likely to win a second term due to Democratic Party ideological disunity and a crumbling infrastructure of aging DC Democratic establishment leaders. Meanwhile, the Republican Party, who jettisoned their establishment baggage in [More…]
September 7, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 9 3:13 pm
Labor Day Forecast: Trump & GOP US Senate; Democratic US House
President Trump is likely to win a second term due to Democratic Party ideological disunity and a crumbling infrastructure of aging DC Democratic establishment leaders. Meanwhile, the Republican Party, who jettisoned their establishment baggage in 2016, is more united and enthusiastic over the prospects of another four years in the White House and a solidly conservative US Supreme Court.
Republican turnout in rural America, small towns and the outer suburbs will be solid, thanks to the radical left agenda along with the violent rioting which resulted in destruction of downtown businesses and anti-police anarchy not seen since 1968. That was the year Republican nominee Richard Nixon won the White House on the issue of law and order.
The enthusiastic Trump base voters, along with law-and-order independent voters, will be joined by new allies among Blacks and Hispanics thanks to issues relating to religious freedom and school choice, giving President Trump the advantage in swing states and his election to a second term.
Democrats will hold the US House in 2020 but will lose seats in once Republican-held districts in suburbs that elected Democrats for the first time in 2018. The net loss of seats in the US House will lead Speaker Nancy Pelosi to announce that she will not seek reelection as House leader, a welcomed relief for most members of the House Democratic Caucus who realize it’s time for the next generation to direct the party’s legislative and political agenda.
If the US Senate remains in the hands of a Republican majority, Sen. Chuck Schumer will likely step aside to allow for a new generation of Senate Democratic Caucus leaders to be elected.
Democrats Recover with US Senate in 2022 and White House in 2024
Two years from now, Democrats will likely win the US Senate majority and will likely win the White House in 2024. This forecast is based on the likelihood that President Trump and DC Republicans will push policy decisions too far right for the soon-to-be-the-majority younger generations of voters, who are decidedly progressive. It is after the elections of 2024 that you will see the dramatic shift in governmental priorities to revolutionary social justice, economic and environmental reforms.
However, the era of Democratic control of both the White House and the Congress beginning in 2025 will be checked by the US Supreme Court, which will have a 6-3 conservative bloc, maybe even a 7-2 conservative bloc, thanks to the reelection of Trump and a GOP US Senate majority in 2020.
Why Joe Biden will not likely inspire high turnout
Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee for president, is not the radical revolutionary leader young progressive Democrats so desperately hoped for in the 2020 race for the presidency. To win a revolution, young, progressive Democrats know they need a genuine ideological purist who, like them, would rather fight for what is right than win.
Biden is a dealmaker and bipartisan compromiser, not a revolutionary leader. Young Democratic voters will never be enthusiastic about Joe Biden. They did not turn out for Hillary Clinton in 2016 for the same reason and are not likely to turn out for the Biden-Harris ticket in 2020.
Joe Biden is a member of the DC Democratic party establishment that includes all the out-of-touch oldtimers like the Clintons, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Leader Chuck Schumer; an establishment that is standing in the way of a new generation of Democratic leaders with new ideas for the future.
DC Democrats are the crumbling infrastructure of a party divided between the aging, entitled establishment — with all the power and money — and the rising revolutionary wing of young Democrats waging a policy revolution on social justice, economic justice and climate change.
Well-intentioned young liberals will face a setback this year because of a voter backlash against the disruptive distractions of lawlessness in our nation’s largest cities and the disruptive attempt to cancel the culture of most Americans by tearing down statues and monuments.
President Trump is likely to win a second term in the Oval Office, the US Senate will likely stay in the hands of Republicans and the Democratic majority in the US House will weaken all due to disunity in the Democratic Party between the crumbling DC establishment and the disruptive radical left.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
Smoking Gun in FBI Corruption Probe and Crime Wave in Democrat-Led Cities Give Trump Opening to Victory August 17, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 8 2:13 pm Corrupt FBI spying the “doomsday scenario of abuse of power” The last thing Democrats need on the eve of their national convention is a smoking gun in the investigation [More…]
Smoking Gun in FBI Corruption Probe and Crime Wave in Democrat-Led Cities Give Trump Opening to Victory
August 17, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 8 2:13 pm
Corrupt FBI spying the “doomsday scenario of abuse of power”
The last thing Democrats need on the eve of their national convention is a smoking gun in the investigation of corrupt FBI spying on the Trump campaign in 2016. But that’s what happened last Friday when former Obama-Biden Administration FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith said he will plead guilty to altering FISA documents that led to spying on Trump campaign advisor Carter Page.
The one-two political punch of corrupt spying by the Obama-Biden FBI and the ongoing crime wave in Democrat-led cities is a clear opening for President Trump to win a second term.
As I cautioned in my last report, you should never give a ruthless counterpuncher like Trump an opening like an indictment in the Russian collusion probe. As expected, President Trump didn’t waste a minute in calling a White House news conference, leading with the Clinesmith guilty plea story.
“Kevin Clinesmith, a corrupt FBI attorney who falsified FISA warrants in James Comey’s very corrupt FBI is expected to plead guilty,” said President Trump in the White House press briefing room. “That’s just the beginning, I imagine,” Trump speculated. “The fact is they spied on my campaign and got caught,” he concluded. You will hear those statements over and over between now and election day.
So, just how bad is Clinesmith’s admission politically? How about, “The doomsday scenario of the abuse of government power.” That’s how AG William Barr characterized the corruption associated with the Obama-Biden Administration’s investigation of Trump campaign collusion with Russia during an August 8 interview with Mark Levin, host of Life, Liberty & Levin on Fox News.
Barr went on to define the “doomsday scenario of governmental abuse” as when “the party in power uses the police and intelligence services to tilt the field against their political opponents.”
That’s really bad … politically. And then there’s the crime spree in Democrat-led cities.
Nightly News of Crime in Democrat-Led Cities Speaks Louder than Words
This week, beginning at 8 pm tonight through Thursday, dozens of speeches at the Democratic National Convention will focus on making the case for a Biden-Harris presidency, arguing what Democrats see as the many failures of the Trump Administration. Unfortunately for Democrats, video tape shown during nightly news broadcasts of violent rioters in Democrat-led cities where looting and destruction of downtown businesses takes place night after night will speak louder than what they say.
Today’s USA Today carries a story about violence over the weekend titled, Riot declared, dozens arrested and officers injured in Portland, Seattle, Chicago protests. The article tells about violence last night in Seattle, where three police officers were injured “as a result of a riot in Seattle involving explosives, bottles and rocks.” Seattle, where the first Black woman to serve as Police Chief resigned after the City Council cut $4 million from the police department budget; likely a loss of 100 officers.
The USA Today story told of an overnight riot Saturday in Portland, where “softball size” rocks, glass bottles and other objects where thrown at police, sending two officers to the hospital. Portland has seen 70 straight days of rioting including burning the police precinct. A city held hostage.
And then there’s Chicago, where rioting over the weekend led to 17 police officers injured. Chicago, where, per a Wall Street Journal analysis of crime statistics in the nation’s largest cities, 2,240 people were shot from January 1 – July 31 this year. Chicago, home to 440 homicides during the same time period, including several children who were accidentally shot and killed this year.
Homicides totaled 3,612 this year in the 50 biggest US cities, a 24% increase over last year. Most of those cites are run by Democrats.
Democratic-led cities like New York City, where, per the New York Times, “Through the first seven months of this year, shootings were up 72 percent (72%) over the same period last year and murders rose 30 percent (30%).” Philadelphia, on track to see homicide rates not seen since 2007.
Unfortunately, the Biden-Harris Democratic presidential ticket is going to have to defend both the rioting, arson, and looting associated with the Black Lives Matter protests, and the crime wave in Democrat-led big cities where children are being shot while protesters shout “Defund the Police.” If the Biden-Harris ticket is going to make their campaign about Trump’s White House failures, they also have to be able to defend allegations of abuse of power by the Obama-Biden White House. The Obama-Biden Justice Department’s role in falsifying FBI documents.
Thanks to last Friday’s admission by a former Obama Administration FBI lawyer that he helped rig FISA warrant documents that led to illegal spying on the Trump campaign, along with the raging crime wave in Democrat-led cities all across America, President Trump is given the biggest opening yet for a one-two knockout counterpunch in his fight for another term in the Oval Office.
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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
Political Fortunes Will Shift as Voter Priorities Change to the Economy, Government Leadership and Diversity August 5, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 7 7:13 am Coronavirus likely to fade as most important voter priority During the next three months leading up to Election Day, November 3, 2020, the coronavirus will likely fade as the most important [More…]
Political Fortunes Will Shift as Voter Priorities Change to the Economy, Government Leadership and Diversity
August 5, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 7 7:13 am
Coronavirus likely to fade as most important voter priority
During the next three months leading up to Election Day, November 3, 2020, the coronavirus will likely fade as the most important problem facing the nation, giving way to concerns about the economy, government leadership, and diversity. Shifting political priorities means a shift in political fortunes.
On the coronavirus: Intense public anxiety, worldwide, over COVID-19 has set off frenzied public funding to provide vaccine manufacturers with everything money can buy for their round-the-clock race to end the pandemic. The political pressure on politicians to solve the problem now, as in right now, is too great and the financial bonanza for pharmaceutical companies too enticing to wait a second longer.
As to whether there is reason to be optimistic that a COVID-19 vaccine will be available sooner rather than later, the always-cautious Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the US House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus on Friday that by “late fall and early winter, we will have in fact a vaccine that we can say will be safe and effective.”
Political implications: Gradually, week after week, positive news from labs around the globe touting progress on development of a COVID-19 vaccine will cause public fears about the coronavirus to give way to concerns about the economy. Voters will shift their attention from how to survive the virus to questions like, How do we recover economically? And, Who do we want in the White House, the Congress and in our state capitals to lead our economic recovery?
In addition to the issues of the Economy and Government Leadership, Diversity and especially Race Relations will also be on the short list of the most important problems on the minds of voters this fall.
Bottom line: Shifting political priorities means a shift in political fortunes.
Trump scores low on issues, high on counterpunching
President Trump’s poll numbers are lousy. Per today’s Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of all recent polls, far more people “disapprove” of the job he is doing overall as president (54.2%) than “approve” (43.4%). The only issue where Trump’s job approval is higher than his disapproval is on his handling of the economy, with an RCP average of 48.6% “approve,” 48% “disapprove”.
If the coronavirus is still the #1 most important issue on the minds of voters in November, President Trump will likely join former presidents Jimmy Carter, D-GA (1977-1981) and George H.W. Bush, R-TX (1989-1993), as the only presidents since Herbert Hoover (1929-1933) to win only one term.
However, if as I suspect concerns about the coronavirus give way to issues relating to economic recovery, government leadership, diversity and race relations, then President Trump has a fighting chance. Remember, Trump’s job approval score on his handling of the economy is a net positive.
So, there is good news and bad news for both parties in 2020.
The good news for Democrats is that the next generation of American voters are clearly more progressive and will certainly favor Democratic leadership over Republicans in Washington, DC in the near future. States with a solid GOP-friendly history like North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Texas and Arizona are at a Democratic-friendly tipping point due to the growth of urban and minority voters.
The good news for Republicans is that so many DC Democrats have fumbled efforts to punish Trump for defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016 or botched attempts to weaken him politically with sabotage tactics like the Russian collusion fiasco, that their ascension to presidential power in the nation’s capital very well could be delayed for four years.
Never give a ruthless counterpuncher like Trump an opening
Never give a ruthless counterpuncher like Trump an opening or he will knock you out.
If U.S. Attorney John Durham recommends a single criminal indictment later this month resulting from his year-long probe into the Obama Justice Department’s handling of the investigation into collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, Trump will not only be vindicated, he will have a powerful counterpunch that can be thrown time and again, ad after ad, speech after speech, press conference after press conference, tweet after tweet … day after day until November 3, 2020.
Washington DC Democrats, through unrestrained personal vindictiveness (“We’re going to impeach the motherf***er,” Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-MI, told well-wishers the day she was sworn in), and congressional subterfuge (“I’m concerned that if we don’t impeach this president, he will get reelected,” Rep. Al Green, D-TX, told MSNBC), may have given President Trump too many opportunities for knockout counterpunches to start measuring the drapes in the Oval Office just yet.
That’s good news for Republicans. The bad news for Republicans is that this country is too diverse for an all-white male party to succeed in Washington, DC any longer. Diversify or you lose.
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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
Governor Cooper’s Political Fortunes Threatened by DC Democrats and Political Fault Lines Beyond His Control July 15, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 6 3:13 pm Handicappers say it’s Coopers to lose, however … The political handicappers I trust at the national level give the odds of winning the North Carolina race for governor to Gov. Roy [More…]
Governor Cooper’s Political Fortunes Threatened by DC Democrats and Political Fault Lines Beyond His Control
July 15, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 6 3:13 pm
Handicappers say it’s Coopers to lose, however …
The political handicappers I trust at the national level give the odds of winning the North Carolina race for governor to Gov. Roy Cooper, D-Nash. Charlie Cook (Cook Political Report) and Nathan Gonzales (Inside Elections) have the race rated as “Lean” Democratic. Larry Sabato (UVA – Sabato’s Crystal Ball) has the North Carolina race for governor as “Likely” Democratic.
I do not know of any non-partisan handicapper who gives the advantage in the governors race to Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, R-Mecklenburg. The Real Clear Politics average of all polls conducted in North Carolina since January 2020 is Cooper 48.8% and Forest 41%. Cooper also leads in fundraising.
The Associated Press reported on Tuesday this week that Gov. Cooper has raised a total of $19.3 million as of mid-year 2020, with $14 million Cash on Hand. Lt. Gov. Forest has raised a total of $6.9 million as of mid-year, with about $2 million Cash on Hand.
Despite Gov. Cooper’s solid leads in the polls and fundraising, my sense is that things are too volatile nationally for any of the North Carolina statewide races to have odds greater than 50/50. The political costs of rioting, arson, and looting associated with the Black Lives Matter movement, along with the crime wave in Democrat-led big cities in which Black children are being killed while protesters carry signs that read “Defund the Police,” those political costs will be measured at the ballot box in November. I suspect those costs will be substantial.
Another political problem threatening Gov. Cooper’s future in the Governor’s Mansion is the number of national Democratic leaders driven by their hatred of President Trump. They seem to be totally unaware that Donald Trump is the master troll; a master at getting his opponents to hate him so they will retaliate vindictively and make mistakes. With Trump, everything is intentional.
As Roy Cohn, Trump’s mentor, once said, “I bring out the worst in my enemies, and that’s how I get them to defeat themselves.”
Polls have become uniquely unreliable in 2020
But, what about the polls, you say. Today’s Real Clear Politics average shows Biden ahead of Trump by 9 points. Well, do you know any Trump voters who dare tell anyone that they plan to vote for Trump for fear of retribution? Sure you do. And for those of you who answered “no,” yes, you do too, you just don’t know who they are.
Trump voters dare not disclose their voting intentions or they will be ostracized. Vilified. Persecuted to the full extent of the law. Unfriended. Labeled a racist. Get fired. Be boycotted, like the current boycott of Goya Foods after the CEO complimented the President during a White House visit.
As much as I respect pollsters, the bitterness on the left towards Trump as routinely expressed by many journalists, academics, and the Cancel Culture liberal activists, has shut down any and all honest conversations about the Trump Administration. So many Trump voters have clammed up, especially if a stranger from a polling firm calls, that political polls have become uniquely unreliable in 2020.
As if the partisan and ideological divides in America are not volatile enough, there are other major fault lines creating uncertainty as to election outcomes. Race in particular; the San Andreas fault of all political fault lines. A tectonic boundary with seismic activity too great to ignore. Yet, “Defund the Police” may create a backlash that will offset any Democratic gains in enthusiasm and unity from the Black Lives Matter movement, especially among suburban white women and older voters.
The US Supreme Court and lower federal courts have become a major fault line. Income and educational disparities are always major fault lines; urban/suburban/rural priorities. Gender. Religion. Generational transitions. Cultural identity. Social media.
Global relationships are a fault line. The Cancel Culture. National debt and deficit spending. Poverty. Guns. Criminal justice. Police reform. Environment. Healthcare. Trump. All of these are major fault lines that could create an advantage for one party and a disaster for the other this fall.
Looking back over past races for governor, I would normally conclude that Gov. Cooper’s advantages argue that the race is his to lose. But that’s not true in 2020 because of all of the outside forces at play that Cooper has no control over. The North Carolina governors race is more the national Democrats to lose.
Cooper has done a good job in posturing himself for a second term. It’s his party leaders in DC and radical left activists who are the greatest threat to his political fortunes.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
Why Betting Odds Give Trump the Edge to Win the Presidential Race and How Democrats Can Up the Ante May 19, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 5 3:13 pm Presidential Race is About the Future Today’s Real Clear Politics average of all national presidential campaign polls shows Joe Biden, former Vice President now presumptive Democratic nominee, [More…]
Why Betting Odds Give Trump the Edge to Win the Presidential Race and How Democrats Can Up the Ante
May 19, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 5 3:13 pm
Presidential Race is About the Future
Today’s Real Clear Politics average of all national presidential campaign polls shows Joe Biden, former Vice President now presumptive Democratic nominee, ahead of President Trump by 48% to 44%. However, the same site has average betting odds showing Trump ahead by 51% to 42%.
So, why are oddsmakers favoring President Trump over Joe Biden to win the presidential race? Because presidential races are about the future, and Biden has both feet firmly planted in the past. Because it’s too easy to tie Biden to the persistent corruption of the Washington, D.C. establishment.
Nominating a 78-year old moderate white guy with a “been-there-done-that” campaign message and growing signs of weakening mental acuity is not the way for Democrats to win the Oval Office.
The future of the Democratic Party is a brand new generation of progressive urban voters, along with suburban women with college degrees; a new generation of tech savvy young voters of all races and ethnicities impatiently waiting for their chance to lead. A new generation with new ideas.
New ideas like higher education that does not shackle them with debt for decades; a healthcare system that welcomes them when they are sick rather than one with deductibles and copays so high they can’t go to the doctor. Win-win solutions to global challenges, not win-lose nationalistic isolationism.
But, you say, can’t Democrats win by making the 2020 presidential race a referendum on the White House? Well, with Joe Biden as the nominee, the question becomes, which White House?
A Referendum on Which White House?
Unfortunately, if Biden is going to make his campaign about Trump White House failures, he has to be able to defend himself against allegations of abuse of power by the Obama-Biden White House. The Obama-Biden Justice Department. FISA Court abuse. False information; withholding exculpatory notes.
The 17 “inexplicable” inaccuracies and omissions by the FBI in the process of obtaining four separate FISA warrants that led to unlawful spying. “It’s hard to look at all 17 of these events and conclude it was complete incompetence,” said Inspector General Michael Horowitz.
Biden is going to have to defend the Russian collusion allegation propagated by the Obama-Biden DOJ and perpetuated ad nauseam by Rep. Adam Schiff, D-CA, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, despite the fact that leading Obama Administration insiders, like former National Security Advisor Susan Rice and former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, told Schiff’s Committee under oath that they never saw any proof of Russian collusion.
Biden is going to have to defend the impeachment trial of President Trump that proceeded even though there was not one single bipartisan vote in the House for the articles of impeachment. “Unless you have bipartisan consensus,” cautioned Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, in May 2019, “Many people would think it’s being done for political reasons.” Not one bipartisan vote.
Biden is going to have to defend potentially damning proof of dirty cops in the Obama-Biden Justice Department with the release of a senior FBI official’s handwritten notes regarding an upcoming interview at the Trump White House with then-National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. “What is our goal? Truth/Admission or to get him to lie, so we can prosecute him or get him fired?”
If Democrats try to make the 2020 presidential race a referendum on the Trump White House, President Trump will tear them apart. He’s meaner, better funded, and has the bully pulpit.
Democrats cannot win the presidency by making the campaign a referendum on the Trump White House when the Obama-Biden White House is being indicted and convicted in the court of public opinion for abuse of power. It plays right into what Trump won on, corruption in Washington.
The only hope for Democrats to deny President Trump a second term is to shift the focus of the campaign from the past to the future by replacing Joe Biden with a presidential ticket that is a mirror image of the next generation of Americans. A ticket with a women at the top.
That’s the future of the Democratic Party. A brand new generation of progressive urban voters, along with suburban women with college degrees; a new generation of tech savvy young voters of all races and ethnicities impatiently waiting for their chance to lead. A new generation with new ideas.
Today, the betting odds favor the reelection of President Trump. Those odds will flip if Democrats shift their focus from a referendum on the Trump White House to a ticket focused on the future of the United States as envisioned by the emerging generations of 21st Century Americans.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
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Impeachment? What Impeachment? First Quarter 2020 Review of the Politics of the Coronavirus Pandemic March 31, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 4 9:13 am Note: I hope that you and your family and friends are well. I doubt any of us have ever seen our personal and business calendars with the word “canceled” written across [More…]
Impeachment? What Impeachment? First Quarter 2020 Review of the Politics of the Coronavirus Pandemic
March 31, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 4 9:13 am
Note: I hope that you and your family and friends are well. I doubt any of us have ever seen our personal and business calendars with the word “canceled” written across so many events. Haircuts and vacation plans. Civic and family events. Professional opportunities. Tournaments. All canceled because of the dreaded Covid-19 pandemic. When thinking this morning about those who are struggling with the disease and its aftermath, writing about politics seemed trivial. Then I remembered that on November 3, all three branches of government at the federal and state level are at stake. All three branches. Federal and state. The leaders of future crises. I’ll keep writing. And praying. All the best. John Davis
Impeachment: Nothing of Consequence
On January 1, 2020, we began the year with the impeachment trial of President Trump looming large as likely the most politically consequential event of the year. The trial, which began on January 16 in the US Senate, ended on February 5, a colossal dud. An epic misjudgment of both the strength of the case against the president and the persuasive skills of House impeachment managers.
Now, looking back on the first quarter of 2020, I can think of nothing more politically insignificant than the impeachment trial. It reminds me of the 2016 Benghazi hearings that backfired on Republicans. Or the two-year investigation by the Justice Department into corruption at the Clinton Foundation while Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State. The January 2020 DOJ finding? “Nothing of consequence.”
That’s the story of the impeachment trial of President Trump. Nothing of consequence.
Far more legally consequential than the impeachment of the president was the February 24 conviction of former movie mogul Harvey Weinstein on charges of rape and sexual assault, and the March 11 sentencing of Weinstein to 23 years in prison. Sexually exploitive relationships in the workplace are thereby checked for good by the threat of prison time.
Another legally significant event was the February 20 sentencing of Roger Stone, former political consultant to President Trump. Stone was sentenced to 40 months in prison after being found guilty of obstruction of justice, witness tampering and lying to investigators. Stone now joins Michael Cohen, President Trump’s personal attorney, and Paul Manafort, former Campaign Chairman, behind bars.
The only political consequence of the impeachment trial turned out to be good for the embattled President. Per Gallup polling conducted during the heat of the trial (January 16 to 29), Trump’s job approval had “risen to 49%, his highest in Gallup polling since he took office in 2017.” The poll also found that 52% of Americans favored acquitting Trump, to only 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.
That’s why on January 29, it was no surprise that the Senate voted 51-49 against allowing additional time to interview more witnesses against President Trump. The president had won the argument in the only court that mattered politically to Republican Senators, the court of public opinion.
President Trump played the impeachment trial the same way President Clinton had done in 1999. He kept being President. A Phase 1 trade deal with China. The United States – Mexico – Canada trade agreement, a revision of NAFTA. He held political rallies in key primary and caucus states. He mocked the Democratic House leadership and the negative press coverage of the trial.
By the time President Trump delivered his third State of the Union address on February 4, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was so infuriated that she ripped her copy of the speech into shreds as she stood behind the President. She had struck out. No Russian collusion. No obstruction. No impeachment conviction.
The next day, February 5, the Senate acquitted President Trump on both articles of impeachment. Democrats needed 20 Republican Senators to reach the 67 votes to convict the president and remove him from office. They only got one, Sen. Mitt Romney from Utah.
Nothing of consequence.
Social and Political Consequences of the Coronavirus Pandemic
On February 5, the day of President Trump’s acquittal, few had given any thought to the news of an event that had happened fifteen days earlier in a hospital in Everett, Washington. That was the day the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first case of coronavirus in the United States. A man in his 30s with pneumonia-like symptoms had just returned from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of a new virus called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Not to worry. Washington Governor Jay Inslee assured reporters that the risk of the coronavirus spreading remained low. Afterall, the patient was a single guy who lived and traveled alone.
But spread it did. Quickly. From one case in the state of Washington to 163,479 confirmed cases from all 50 states. As of today, March 31, the United States has the most confirmed cases of any country in the world. Likely the most politically consequential event of the year.
As the cases grew, so did the restrictions. Worldwide travel advisories. Cancellations.
Major league baseball opening day was suspended, the first time in 132 years! The 146th running of the Kentucky Derby has been rescheduled for September 5. The Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics rescheduled for July 23 to August 8, 2021.
NCAA March madness basketball tournament was cancelled, the first time in its 81-year history. Seasons were suspended in all professional, college and high school sports leagues.
Entertainment, forget it. Performing arts. Movies. On March 24, the US box office recorded zero revenue for the first time ever. First time ever. Restaurants, closed except for takeout.
Uncertainties surrounding the spread of the coronavirus caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plunge 1190 on February 27, the largest one day points decline in history. Again, on March 16, the Dow fell by 2997 points, another history-making point drop in a single day.
Meanwhile, the President, the Congress and the Governors, along with federal and state agencies, were working frantically to develop plans to mitigate the pandemic in the United States. Medical protection gear. Hospital beds and personnel. Drug therapies. Ventilators.
Slowly but surely consensus was growing among Americans. Yes, it’s as bad as they say. Yes, we all have to pull together to get beyond it. And the best way to pull together is to stay apart.
There were other worries beyond the disease. The economy. National, state, local. Personal. Too many unemployed. Too many businesses shuttered.
Finally, on Wednesday, March 25, there was cause for hope. The Senate passed the biggest economic stimulus bill in US history unanimously, 96 to 0. The market responded immediately. The Dow jumped by over 2,100 points, its biggest one-day percentage gain (11%) since 1933!
On Friday, March 27, the House passed the bill by voice vote. The President signed it into law on the same day. After many frustrating days of round-the-clock negotiations, a $2.2 trillion stimulus bill. Money for hospitals and first responders at the forefront of the coronavirus pandemic.
Money for small businesses and employees. Reasons to be optimistic that we will get beyond this and recover our health and economy. Insurance companies waved copays for coronavirus treatment. Banks waived mortgage payments for those in financial crisis. IRS waived tax filing until July 15.
Looking back over the first quarter of 2020, we have seen the worst and best of human relationships. We have known fear and hope. Disappointment and encouragement. We have known anger and great sadness. I don’t think I will ever get over the death of Kobe Bryant, his daughter and their friends in the January 26 helicopter crash in Calabasas, California. Loss beyond measure.
But the chapter of the first quarter of 2020 ends today. And now we must look forward.
On July 13-16, the Democratic National Convention will be held in Milwaukee Wisconsin. Former Vice President Joe Biden has become the presumptive presidential nominee, but without a whole lot of spontaneous enthusiasm. An inspired choice of a female running mate may be the needed spark.
Also, on tap for the summer, is the August 24-27 Republican National Convention in Charlotte. As the first quarter of 2020 ends, President Trump’s job approval is at an all-time high of 49% per Gallup, with over 60% approving of the job he is doing managing the coronavirus crisis.
As to whether the coronavirus will be the most politically consequential event of the year on General Election Day, November 3, 2020, or whether it will be overshadowed by an event of even greater concern, we do not know. What we do know is that Election Day is the day we choose the leaders who will manage the next crisis. And the one after that.
We began the first quarter with everyone at each other’s throats. Questioning each other’s political motives. Estranged. One side certain that impeachment was justified because President Trump had abused his power. The other side certain that impeachment was an abuse of power by Congress.
We begin the second quarter of 2020 much closer together. Bound by a common concern for each other because of the threat of the coronavirus. More willing to cooperate with each other to mitigate the threat. To look out for each other. To pray for each other. To mourn strangers who have died.
Impeachment? What impeachment?
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Note: Feel free to forward this report.
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Scuppernongs May Perfume the Breeze at Night but the Strong Need Luck in NC to Win a US Senate Race March 18, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 3 9:13 am NC Fifty-Year Trend: Only 2-of-9 US Senators Won a Second Term North Carolina’s official state toast, The Old North State, written in 1904, proclaims that [More…]
Scuppernongs May Perfume the Breeze at Night but the Strong Need Luck in NC to Win a US Senate Race
March 18, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 3 9:13 am
NC Fifty-Year Trend: Only 2-of-9 US Senators Won a Second Term
North Carolina’s official state toast, The Old North State, written in 1904, proclaims that the land “where the scuppernong perfumes the breeze at night,” is also the land where “the weak grow strong, and the strong grow great.” Let me assure you, that does not apply to North Carolina politics.
Here in the land of the long leaf pine, weak political leaders lose reelection campaigns and the strong leaders need right much luck to win another term, especially in US Senate races.
In the last 50 years, only 2-of-9 US Senators from North Carolina won reelection.
Since 1970, only US Sen. Jesse Helms, R-Union (1973-2003) and US Sen. Richard Burr, R-Forsyth (2005 to Present) won races for reelection to the US Senate from North Carolina.
Republicans who lost races for another term since 1970: James Broyhill (1986), Lauch Faircloth (1993-1999), Elizabeth Dole, (2003-2009). Note: Sen. John East died.
Since 1970, all NC Democratic US Senators seeking reelection lost: B. Everett Jordan (1958-1973), Robert Morgan (1975-81), Terry Sanford (1986-1993), Kay Hagan (2009-15).
Two Democrats retired: Sen. Sam Ervin, Jr. (1954-1974) and Sen. John Edwards (1999-2005).
A positive advantage of living in one of the nation’s most politically competitive states is strong leadership. You have to be strong to win. But, in US Senate races, even if you are strong you also have to be lucky. And it’s the luck of presidential job approval that matters most.
Presidential Job Approval Can Make or Break a US Senate Candidate
On November 4, 2008, Kay Hagan, D-Guilford, became the first woman in United States history to defeat an incumbent woman US Senator when she outpolled Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-Rowan, by a whopping 53% to 44%. Hagan won because she was strong. And, because she was lucky.
Kay Hagan was a seasoned banker, a lawyer and five-term state Senator. Raised in a political family. Her father, Mayor of Lakeland, Florida; her uncle a Florida US Senator and Governor.
But Kay Hagan would not likely have defeated Liddy Dole in 2008 if it were not for luck.
Lucky because in 2008, the election of the first African-American president in United States history drove turnout for North Carolina Democrats up to historic highs.
Lucky because the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee made her their number one opportunity race, spending more money in North Carolina in 2008 than in any other state.
But most of all, Democrat Kay Hagan was lucky in the fall of 2008 because Republican President George W. Bush’s job approval hit one of Gallup’s three all-time lowest marks of 25%. (Note: President Richard Nixon scored a 24% job approval after Watergate in 1974, and President Harry Truman scored the lowest ever low of 22% in 1952 after he fired national hero Gen. Douglas MacArthur.)
The luck of Presidential job approval, key to Kay Hagan’s defeat of Elizabeth Dole, was also a major factor in why Dole defeated Erskine Bowles in in 2002. Yes, Dole was a strong candidate. Duke University, Harvard Law, cabinet member with President Reagan and President GHW Bush, head of the American Red Cross. But luck was the winning difference.
In 2002, President George W. Bush enjoyed record high job approval because Americans united under his leadership after the 9/11 crisis. (Note: Bush’s job approval reached 90% immediately after the crisis, the highest in Gallup history.) Republicans took back the US Senate in 2002, the first time ever that the president’s party gained control of a chamber of Congress during a mid-term election year.
Elizabeth Dole won the US Senate seat held for 30 years by retiring Sen. Jesse Helms. Helms became the first Republican Senator in the 20th Century from North Carolina in 1972, thanks to President Nixon’s 62% job approval and landslide reelection win. (Nixon won 49 of 50 states.)
Presidential job approval also contributed greatly to Republican Thom Tillis’s defeat of US Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014, when President Obama’s job approval fell to a low of 38%. It was the lowest rating of his presidency, driven down by horrific terrorist incidents and the Ebola virus crisis.
Now, in 2020, US Sen. Thom Tillis’s political fortunes are in the hands of a US President who will be judged in part by how he manages today’s Coronavirus crisis. Likewise, Sen. Tillis’s Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham, D-Davidson, faces the same political reality: as goes the President’s job approval, so goes the US Senate race.
Yes, Cal Cunningham is a strong candidate. UNC Chapel Hill law degree. Army veteran. And, per all major political handicappers, like the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, the Tillis/Cunningham US Senate race is a toss-up. He has a 50/50 chance of winning.
But here in the land “where the scuppernong perfumes the breeze at night,” strong US Senate candidates do not grow great without right much luck from the job approval of the US president.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
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