[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/JDPR-5-26-11-Legal-Mischief1.mp3|titles=JDPR 5 26 11 Legal Mischief] Note: This report is based on research done in preparation for presentations last week to the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Dept. at the Norman A. Wiggins School of Law, Campbell University, Raleigh, and a presentation to the NC Dental Society’s Political Action Committee at their Annual Meeting in
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Note: This report is based on research done in preparation for presentations last week to the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Dept. at the Norman A. Wiggins School of Law, Campbell University, Raleigh, and a presentation to the NC Dental Society’s Political Action Committee at their Annual Meeting in Myrtle Beach. If you are interested in a presentation on the political implications of redistricting for 2012 politics, click here.
Most Fun You Can Legally Have
Mercedes Benz has an ad on TV claiming that driving one of their “C Class” cars is the most fun you can legally have. Wrong. Drawing your political party an advantage over a $20 billion budget for the next 10 years while disrupting the opposition without getting indicted … now that’s the most fun you can legally have.
You can’t govern if you don’t win a majority of the legislative seats. One of the best ways to stack the deck in your favor is to draw a majority of seats predisposed to choosing your candidates. But only the party in the majority after each census can claim the drawing tools. In 2011, it’s the Republicans.
Miller’s Millstone: Rucho’s Right of Retributive Justice
US Congressman Brad Miller, D-Wake, is serving his last term whether he has accepted his fate or not. Why? He “double-bunked” the Chairman of the NC Senate Redistricting Committee 10 years ago.
No one understands the devastating political consequences of redistricting better than someone who got “double-bunked” by the majority party mapmakers. Double-bunking occurs when two incumbents from the same party are drawn into the same district. If you are double-bunked you have two choices: run against each other in a brutal and expensive primary, or someone has to agree to go home.
That’s what happened 10 years ago … to none other than Sen. Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg, the current Chairman of the Senate Redistricting Committee. Who served as Chairman of NC Senate Redistricting Committee 10 years ago? None other than US Congressman Brad Miller.
Then-state Senator Brad Miller put GOP Senators Robert Pittenger and Bob Rucho, both from Mecklenburg County, in the same district. Rucho decided to bow out rather than risk a fortune trying to beat one of the wealthiest members of the state Senate in a primary race in an expensive media market.
Sen. Rucho went home and practiced dentistry for most of the decade. Then-Sen. Brad Miller drew himself a safe Democratic U.S. House seat (connects Raleigh and Greensboro by way of the Virginia border counties) and spent the remainder of the decade as a member of the United States Congress.
In 2008, Sen. Pittenger resigned. Bob Rucho was appointed to fill his unexpired term. In 2010, the GOP won a 31-19 majority in the NC Senate. Now, low and behold, look who is chairing the NC Senate Redistricting Committee!!! None other than Sen. Bob Rucho.
Miller is history.
A couple of other Democrats in the congressional delegation also need to be pricing moving companies for the big haul back to their respective hometowns. According to press accounts: Mike McIntire, D-Robeson and Larry Kissell, D-Montgomery are the #2 and #3 GOP targets after Miller, followed by Heath Shuler, D-Swain. We will find out who has a target on their backs in a couple of weeks.
Remedy for Overindulging at the Smorgasbord of Legal Mischief
The modern era of remapping congressional and legislative districts typically begins with the majority party overindulging at the smorgasbord of partisan mischief, only to have the minority party lawyers file suits against the maps … suits that receive an unfavorable ruling by majority party judges but are eventually reversed and remanded by the minority party appellate courts and ultimately appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court which hands down a 5-4 decision going one way or the other depending on which party was in the White House at the time of the most recent retirement of a justice. Or, so it seems.
In June, the new Republican versions of congressional and state legislative maps will be unveiled. This much you can count on: Step 1: Republicans will draw themselves a political advantage. Step 2: the state or federal courts or the Obama Justice Department will take much of that advantage away.
In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were six swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.
Republicans sued. Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and a dozen rulings, the courts leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and four were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.
Maps Give You a Head Start; Money Wins the Race
Democrats made up for their losses in the courts by parlaying their political power into a fundraising advantage, outspending Republicans 3-to-1 in legislative races for the remainder of the decade, thereby reestablishing their dominance. Maps give you a head start. Money wins the race.
Republicans were never able to build on the good success of their redistricting litigation, even in GOP-friendly years, because of their inability to raise a competitive war chest.
The financial disparity changed in 2010, primarily because the Democratic leadership imploded under the strain of the worst recession since the Great Depression, high legislative and party leadership turnover, political scandal, and a President who could no longer inspire turnout. While Democrats floundered, Republicans united behind a strong team of political leadership and attained unprecedented fundraising success … and unprecedented political success with the takeover of the General Assembly.
In 2008, NC Senate Democrats raised $9.7 million, doubling the $4.1 million raised by NC Senate Republicans. In 2010, NC Senate Democrats raised only $8.8 million, down 9.1%, while NC Senate Republicans achieved an unprecedented 93.1% increase over 2008 with $7.9 million.
In 2008, NC House Democrats raised $9.7 million, tripling the $3.4 million raised by NC House Republicans. In 2010, NC House Democrats raised $9.7 million again, while NC House Republicans doubled their 2008 total with $6.8 million, a 102% increase.
The odds of another election year during which everything goes wrong for the Democrats while the GOP is doing everything right are slim to none. Maps give you a head start. Money wins the race.
Past Legal Mischief Foretells the Legal Mischief Coming in June
Last Thursday, I served on a panel on redistricting sponsored by the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Department. Panelists included Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, Chmn. of the NC House Redistricting Committee, Sen. Dan Blue, D-Wake, former Chmn. of the NC House Redistricting Committee, and Rep. Leo Daughtry, R-Johnston, a member of the NC House Redistricting Committee.
Rep. Daughtry reminded us that he was a state senator prior to the 1990 redistricting, when he was mapped out of his home territory and forced to run for the House. Daughtry also reminded us that in 2000 he and GOP House member Billy Creech were “double bunked” into the same district. Creech retired.
NC Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, R-Watauga was state Sen. Virginia Foxx 10 years ago when she was double-bunked with Sen. John Garwood, R-Wilkes. Foxx chose to run for US Congress instead. NC Congressman Patrick McHenry, R-Gaston was state Rep. Patrick McHenry 10 years ago when he was double-bunked with Rep. John Rayfield, R-Gaston. He chose to run for US Congress.
This is what you can expect in a couple of weeks, except that it will be the Democrats who will suffer at the hands of Republican map makers. And it will all be legal … legal mischief nonetheless, and the most fun you can legally have!
Remember, Democrats set the standard of fairness for redistricting congressional and legislative districts in North Carolina, and you can count on Republicans to lower themselves to that same standard.
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/JDPR-MARCH-30-2011-Ferraro.mp3|titles=JDPR MARCH 30 2011 Ferraro] “Do not put such unlimited powers into the hands of the Husbands. Remember all men would be tyrants if they could. If particular care and attention is not paid to the Ladies, we are determined to foment a Rebellion, and will not hold ourselves bound by any laws in which
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From a letter written by Abigail Adams to her husband, John, who was attending the Continental Congress, March 31, 1776“Do not put such unlimited powers into the hands of the Husbands. Remember all men would be tyrants if they could. If particular care and attention is not paid to the Ladies, we are determined to foment a Rebellion, and will not hold ourselves bound by any laws in which we have no voice, or Representation.”
We know better than to repeal our Masculine systems
When Abigail Adams threatened in her March 31, 1776 letter to her husband, John, that women would “foment a Rebellion” if they were not given a say in the new laws of the land, he wrote in reply, “We know better than to repeal our Masculine systems.”
The exchange between Abigail and John Adams amplifies the most important conclusion in this report: women were not given equal rights by men, they had to seize them.
March is National Women’s History Month. The 2011 theme is, “Our History is Our Strength.” President Obama issued a proclamation in which he stated that this is the month during which, “we reflect on the extraordinary accomplishments of women and honor their role in shaping the course of our Nation’s history.”
Likewise, Gov. Beverly Perdue, North Carolina’s first woman governor, formally announced Women’s History Month with a proclamation that included this bit of history: “WHEREAS, in 1774, fifty-one women organized the Edenton Tea Party, one of the earliest political acts taken by North Carolina women in protest of the taxation of the colonies without representation within the British government.”
This report is written in honor of Women’s History Month and on the occasion of the death of Geraldine Ferraro, the first woman Vice Presidential candidate of a major political party in American history (Mondale/Ferraro defeated in 1984 by Reagan/Bush). Although she did not live to realize her dream of attending “the inauguration of first woman president of the United States,” surely she must have been made proud a thousand times over as women, inspired in part by her example, seized opportunities to lead throughout every walk of life.
Women Governors and State Executive Elective Offices
North Carolina Leads the South with Women Elected to State Executive Offices
State Executive Elective Offices: In 2011, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers, women hold 69 of the nation’s 317 state executive elective offices (38 Democrats, 30 Republicans, and one independent) … including six governorships.
Gov. Beverly Perdue, North Carolina’s first women governor, chairs the Council of State, comprised of 9 statewide executive elective offices. Women hold 5 of the 9 positions, including Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Commissioner of Labor Cherie Berry, Superintendent of Public Instruction June Atkinson, State Treasurer Janet Cowell and State Auditor Beth Wood.
In addition to Gov. Perdue here in North Carolina, Oklahoma has a Democrat woman governor. There are four Republican women serving as governor, including Arizona, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and New Mexico.
- Ella Grasso (D-CT) was the first woman governor elected in her own right (1974)
- 34 women have served as governor in 26 states (19 Democrats, 15 Republicans)
- All but 3 women governors have been elected since Ferraro’s 1984 VP race[1]
- NC leads the South in 2011 with 6 women elected to state executive offices (5D, 1R)
- Women currently serving in state executive elective offices in Southern states: AL 5, OK 3, FL 2, TX 2, KY 2, AR 1, SC 1
- GA, VA, TN, LA and MS have “0” women serving in state executive elective offices
North Carolina’s Battle of the Sexes since 2000: Women 23, Men 8
In 1996, Elaine Marshall, a Democrat from Lillington, became North Carolina’s first woman elected to a statewide executive office. Marshall out-raced her GOP opponent, “The King” of NASCAR, Richard Petty, by several car lengths.
Since November 2000, there have been 31 statewide general election races in North Carolina that pitted a man against a woman, including state judiciary offices, state executive offices, and federal statewide offices. Women have won 23 of those 31 races, including two women elected to the U.S. Senate, Elizabeth Dole, a Republican, and Kay Hagan, a Democrat.
As a result of those 23 statewide wins, women have the majority of the Council of State and the North Carolina Supreme Court. The seven-member court includes Chief Justice Sarah Parker, Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson (NC’s first African American woman on the court), Justice Robin Hudson and Justice Barbara Jackson.
The North Carolina Court of Appeals had an 8/7 female majority until Gov. Perdue appointed Judge Cressie Thigpen in January to fill the unexpired term of Judge Barbara Jackson, shifting the Court of Appeals to 8/7 male judges.
A toilet, not a urinal, in the judge’s chambers … or go to jail!
Susie Sharp was the first woman to serve on the North Carolina Supreme Court. She was appointed in 1962 by Democratic Gov. Terry Sanford to fill an unexpired term. Rhoda Billings was the first Republican woman on the Supreme Court, appointed by GOP Gov. Jim Martin. In 1986, Justice Billings was appointed Chief Justice, the first Republican woman.
In 1974, Sharp became the first female in the U.S. to be elected Chief Justice of a state Supreme Court, with a landslide 74% of the vote. However, in the early days of her distinguished career, while serving as the state’s first woman Superior Court Judge, she was not so well received.
On the occasion of the unveiling of Sharp’s portrait at the Supreme Court in 1996, Franklin Freeman, a former Associate Justice, gave the formal address in which he told the story of her confrontation with Burke County commissioners over the matter of the need for a toilet in the judge’s chambers.
“The Burke County commissioners refused, upon learning of her assignment to their county, to modify the only bathroom facilities in the judge’s chambers; a sink and a urinal that hung on the wall. Judge Sharp opened court on Monday morning at 10:00 a.m. and ordered the sheriff to “invite” the county commissioners over to the courthouse. By 11:00, the courthouse was aflutter with the scurrying about of plumbers, carpenters, and electricians, while the county commissioners narrowly avoided a few nights repose in the county jail.”
Restated for emphasis: women were not given equal rights by men, they had to seize them.
Here are the 31 statewide races in North Carolina since election year 2000 that pitted a woman candidate against a man:
Election Year 2000
Secretary of State
Elaine Marshall (D) defeated Harris Blake (R)
Commissioner of Labor
Cherie Berry (R) defeated Doug Berger (D)
Commissioner of Agriculture
Meg Phipps (D) defeated Steve Troxler (R)
Court of Appeals
Robin Hudson (D) defeated Paul Stam (R)
John Martin (D) defeated Wendy Enochs (R)
Election Year 2002
U.S. Senate
Elizabeth Dole (R) defeated Erskine Bowles (D)
Court of Appeals
Martha Geer (D) defeated Bill Constangy (R)
Sanford Steelman (R) defeated Loretta Biggs (D)
Election Year 2004
Lt. Governor
Beverly Perdue (D) defeated Jim Snyder (R)
Superintendent of Public Instruction
June Atkinson (D) defeated Bill Fletcher (R)
Commissioner of Labor
Cherie Berry(R) defeated Wayne Goodwin (D)
Supreme Court
Sarah Parker (D) defeated John Tyson (R)
Court of Appeals
Linda McGee (D) defeated Bill Parker (R)
Barbara Jackson (R) defeated Alan Thornburg (D)
Election Year 2006
Supreme Court
Sarah Parker (D) defeated Rusty Duke (R)
Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D) defeated Eric Levinson (R)
Mark Martin (R) defeated Rachel Lea Hunter (D)
Election Year 2008
President
Obama/Biden (D) defeated McCain/Palin (R)
Governor
Beverly Perdue (D) defeated Pat McCrory (R)
Secretary of State
Elaine Marshall (D) defeated Jack Sawyer (R)
Auditor
Beth Wood (D) defeated Les Merritt (R)
Treasurer
Janet Cowell (D) defeated Bill Daughtridge (R)
Superintendent of Public Instruction
June Atkinson (D) defeated Richard Morgan (R)
Supreme Court Justice
Justice Robert Edmunds (R) defeated Suzanne Reynolds (D)
Court of Appeals Judge
Judge Linda Stephens (D) defeated Dan Barrett (R)
Cheri Beasley (D) defeated Doug McCullough (R)
Sam Ervin IV (D) defeated Kristen Ruth (D)
Judge Jim Wynn (D) defeated Jewel Ann Farlow (R)
Election Year 2010
United States Senate
Sen. Richard Burr (R) defeated Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D)
Supreme Court Justice
Judge Barbara Jackson (R) defeated Judge Bob Hunter (D)
Court of Appeals Judge
Judge Martha Geer (D) defeated Dean Poirier (R)
Ferraro’s Dream: the inauguration of the first woman US President
When Abigail Adams wrote to her husband on March 31, 1776, “If particular care and attention is not paid to the Ladies, we are determined to foment a Rebellion, and will not hold ourselves bound by any laws in which we have no voice, or Representation,” little did she know that the “Rebellion” would take two centuries.
John Adams would follow George Washington as the nation’s chief executive, elected President of the United States in 1796. It would be exactly 200 years later, 1996, before the first woman would serve in an executive role as important as Secretary of State of the United States … the highest-ranking cabinet secretary in line of succession in the event of the death or incapacity of the president. Her name was Madeleine Korbel Albright.
Madeleine Albright was born in Prague, the daughter of a Czech diplomat. She was appointed Secretary of State in 1996 by President Bill Clinton, becoming the 64th US Secretary of State. Since Albright, two women have been appointed Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, appointed by Republican President G.W. Bush in 2005, and the current US Secretary of State, Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton, appointed by Democratic President Barack Obama in 2009.
Although Geraldine Ferraro died last week before realizing her dream of attending “the inauguration of first woman president of the United States,” surely she took great pride in just how close Hillary Clinton came to winning the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008, and in seeing another woman run on a major party presidential ticket with the selection of Sarah Palin by GOP presidential nominee John McCain.
She didn’t live to see a woman president, but she lived to see tens of thousands of women elected to governmental service and ascend to the highest positions of respect and authority in public and private life; she lived to see tens of millions of women seize their equal rights and opportunities.
One day these awe inspiring words will be spoken, and when they are, we will remember Geraldine Ferraro: “Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States and Mister ….”
[1] Refers to women elected in their own right.
Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations. Call me if you are interested and I will come visit with you: 919-696-3859.
Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Audio-Mar-23.mp3|titles=Audio Mar 23] “In Caswell County, the Klan trapped Republican State Sen. John W. Stephens in the county courthouse and cut his throat and stabbed him in the heart. At the time Stephens was collecting evidence of Klan activity for the governor.” News & Observer, March 15, 2011, story by Rob Christensen, Author of The
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“In Caswell County, the Klan trapped Republican State Sen. John W. Stephens in the county courthouse and cut his throat and stabbed him in the heart. At the time Stephens was collecting evidence of Klan activity for the governor.”
News & Observer, March 15, 2011, story by Rob Christensen,
Author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
NOTE: In a departure from the usual content of my report, this is a statement about the importance of today’s consideration by the NC Senate of the pardon of Gov. W.W. Holden.
Precedent for State Atonement – Pope John Paul II Admits that the Roman Catholic Church Erred in Condemning Galileo 359 Years Ago
On October 31, 1992, Pope John Paul II acknowledged in a speech before the Pontifical Academy of Sciences that the Roman Catholic Church had wrongfully condemned Galileo 359 years earlier for asserting that the Earth revolves around the Sun.
In order to keep from being burned at the stake, Galileo (1564-1642), the father of modern science, recanted his scientific findings and spent the remainder of his life under house arrest.
In North Carolina, a mere 140 years ago, the state Senate convicted Governor W.W. Holden on six impeachment charges related to his efforts to quell violence by the Ku Klux Klan in Alamance and Caswell counties. He was the first governor in American history to be impeached, convicted and removed from office. The Senate is considering a pardon.
They cut the Senator’s throat and stabbed him in the heart
In a March 15 News & Observer story, political writer Rob Christensen notes that the violent acts committed by the Klan included arson, lynching and political assassination … including the assassination of a white Republican sheriff and state Senator. “Two Klan murders were particularly high profile,” writes Christensen. “The Klan hanged Wyatt Outlaw, the leader of the black Republicans in Alamance County, in the town square of Graham. In Caswell County, the Klan trapped Republican state Sen. John W. Stephens in the county courthouse and cut his throat and stabbed him in the heart. At the time Stephens was collecting evidence of Klan activity for the governor. Twenty-one other people, black and white, in Caswell County were whipped.”
Under Holden’s orders, the state militia took control of the Alamance and Caswell county courthouses and arrested more than 100 accused Klan members. The six charges leading to his impeachment, conviction and removal from office resulted from these actions.
The bill seeking to pardon Gov. Holden is cosponsored by Sen. Neal Hunt, a Wake County Republican, and Sen. Dan Blue, a Wake County Democrat. Three of North Carolina’s former governors, Democrat Jim Hunt and Republicans Jim Martin and Jim Holshouser, have written legislative leaders in support of the pardon.
Precedent for Acts of State Atonement
In the late 1990s, I was researching the political implications of the coming of a new millennium. Although ultimately the longest period of economic expansion in US history drove the politics of the millennium era, I did discover an unusual phenomenon: worldwide acts of atonement.
Throughout the final decade of the last millennium, countries throughout the world sought to begin the new millennium with a clean slate by admitting to their past wrongs. The acknowledgment by Pope John Paul II that the Roman Catholic Church had wrongfully condemned Galileo 359 years earlier for asserting that the Earth revolves around the Sun is an example of what I found. Here are a few others:
- Jan 19, 1998 – Ottawa apologized for its role in running aboriginal residential schools, which have become notorious for the sexual and physical abuse inflicted upon native children. The long-awaited apology brought back painful memories among Canada’s 1.3 million aboriginals.
- December 29, 1998 – Two top Khmer Rouge leaders issued the first public apology for their role in the deaths of 1.7 million Cambodians during the “killing fields” of the 1970s. Khmer Rouge, a Maoist revolutionary, enslaved Cambodians in labor camps where one in five starved to death, died from disease, or were executed.
- February, 1993 – French President Mitterrand announced the establishment of a National Remembrance Day “… in memory of the anti-Semitic acts of persecution …” committed by the government of France during WWII. This is the first time a French head of state has officially recognized the government’s role in the Jewish holocaust.
- January, 1995 – On the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, German Catholic bishops issued a statement admitting that Catholic Christians should share responsibility for the evils of the Holocaust. The bishops stated that during the era of Hitler’s Third Reich, “… Christians did not carry out the required resistance to racist anti-Semitism.”
- March 13, 1999 – “With profound pain and humbleness we ask for forgiveness …” began the statement of apology from the leader of Guatemala’s former leftist rebel army. The apology was for the excessive abuses committed during Guatemala’s 36-year civil war. An estimated 150,000 Guatemalans were killed.
- On June 9, 1995, Japan’s House of Representatives expressed condolences and remorse in a resolution commemorating the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II in the Pacific. “On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II, this House offers its sincere condolences to those who fell in action and victims of wars and similar actions all over the world. Solemnly reflecting upon many instances of colonial rule and acts of aggression in the modern history of the world, and recognizing that Japan carried out those acts in the past, inflicting pain and suffering upon the peoples of other countries, especially in Asia, the Members of this House express a sense of deep remorse.”
- October 8, 1998 – In a written apology, Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi apologized to the South Korean people for 35 years of brutal colonial rule. In his statement expressing remorse, Obuchi extended “… a heartfelt apology to the people of South Korea, having humbly accepted the historical fact that Japan inflicted heavy damage and pain on the people of South Korea through its colonial rule.”
- August, 1993 – Pope John Paul II apologized for the support of the enslavement of Africans during the 17th and 18th centuries by the Roman Catholic Church “The immensity of their suffering corresponds to the enormity of the crime committed against them,” said Pope John Paul II.
- August, 1993 – Russian President Boris Yeltsin laid a wreath of flowers at a commemoration site to apologize for the massacre of 15,000 Polish army officers by Soviet forces in Katyn Forest during World War II.
- June 1995 – On their 150th anniversary, the Southern Baptist Convention, the nations largest Protestant denomination, publicly apologized for its history of racial bigotry. “We apologize to all African Americans for condoning and/or perpetuating individual and systemic racism in our lifetime, and we genuinely repent of racism of which we have been guilty, whether consciously or unconsciously.”
- Nov 4, 1995 – Queen Elizabeth II, apologized for injustices committed during the era of British Imperialism in New Zealand against the Maoris, the native inhabitants.
- June 12, 1998 – In a letter signed by President Clinton, the United States formally apologized to the approximately 2,200 people of Japanese ancestry who were forcibly removed from Latin American countries and interned in the United States during World War II. “We understand that our nation’s actions were rooted in racial prejudice and wartime hysteria, and we must learn from the past and dedicate ourselves as a nation to renewing and strengthening equality, justice and freedom,” Clinton wrote.
Along Abbots Creek in Davidson County, it gets real personal
Atoning for wrongs committed against each other and seeking forgiveness is one of the most wrenchingly difficult acts in the human experience, whether for individuals or families or states or nations. However, the importance of atonement has been recognized for thousands of years.
Jews have celebrated Yom Kippur, also known as the Day of Atonement, for 3,400 years. Atonement is the most important principal of Christianity, with emphasis given to the importance of personal atonement during the 40 days of Lent leading up to Easter Sunday.
Nevertheless, atonement remains difficult because it forces us to admit that we made those mistakes; that our families made mistakes as repugnant as any in history.
Last summer, I attended the Miller family reunion in Lexington. My mother’s mother was a Miller whose ancestors go back to when Gorg Miller bought land and settled along Abbots Creek in 1752. One of the outings was a visit to a family graveyard a half-hour walk into a dense forest … a graveyard so old that the last person buried there was in 1890.
We finally found the graveyard in a thicket, three dozen or so grave stones and monuments surrounded by an ornamental iron fence. The slaves were buried outside the fence with no markers. The most imposing monument was that of Civil War Captain John Miller.
Although I do deeply regret the mistakes my family members made in thinking that slavery was justifiable, I do not have any bitter feelings towards those who owned slaves and fought for the confederates. However, I do feel compelled to find ways that I can atone for their mistakes … like supporting the pardon of Governor Holden.
By pardoning Governor Holden, we are not merely looking back to atone for mistakes made 140 years ago, we are looking forward to ensure that our children and their children and generations 140 years from now do not impeach, convict and remove a governor from office for taking a stand against the likes of the Ku Klux Klan.
– END –
Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations. Call me if you are interested and I will come visit with you: 919-696-3859.
Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Audio-March-3-Pop-Growth.mp3|titles=Audio March 3 Pop Growth] “If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2011 Political Implications of NC’s 84% Voter Population Growth
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“If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2011
Political Implications of NC’s 84% Voter Population Growth Since 1990
Granted, yesterday’s big news that North Carolina’s population has grown 18.5% in one decade is something to write about. However, in order to see just how dramatically we have changed politically you should take a look at the 84% growth in registered voters since 1990.
The 84% growth in registered voters since 1990 has yielded confounding results: the political market share of Democrats has declined by 30%, yet we have twice as many liberals. There are a million more Republicans, yet the market share of conservatives has declined by 20%.
Caution: The greatest political challenge ahead for the new GOP legislative majority is how to initiate conservative solutions to state government problems without alienating the majority of voters who prefer results over party or ideology … voters who are more likely to say that they are “liberal” (17.6%) or “moderate” (37.3%) than “conservative” (41.4%).[i]
Voter population growth yields fewer Democrats: In 1990, there were 3.3 million voters in North Carolina. As of February 26, 2011, there are 6.1 million voters … an 84% increase.
- In 1990,[ii] 64% of NC registered voters were Democrats
- Today, only 45% of registered voters are Democrats (30% decline)
- In 1990, 31% of NC registered voters were Republicans
- Today, the Republican share 32% (no change)
- In 1990, 6% of NC registered voters were “Unaffiliated”
- Today, the “Unaffiliated” registration is 24% (a 400% increase)
Half of NC’s Voters are in 14 Urban Counties
The geography of North Carolina is unchanged. The mountains are still standing where they stood in 1587 when the “Lost Colony” of British immigrants first settled on Roanoke Island. The ocean waves still wash ashore along the coast just like they did in 1781 when North Carolina patriot militiamen defeated Cornwallis at the Battle of Guilford Courthouse during the Revolutionary War. It’s the profile of the people who make up modern day North Carolina that has undergone profound change … change driven by dramatic population growth in the last few decades.
Throughout most of our history, we were a Southern state … rural and conservative. Today, we are more diverse … more like the nation than the South; more urban and ideologically moderate.
Today, half of North Carolina’s 6.1 million voters reside in 14 counties; the other half reside in the other 86 counties. That means that once the new legislative maps are drawn, half of the state Senators and House members will be from 14 counties, the other half from the other 86 counties.
Non-Southern Newcomers Remix Liberals, Moderates, and Conservatives
As to the ideological shift, according to polling and democratic research conducted throughout the past two decades, two-thirds of the newcomers to North Carolina are not from the South. The leading states sending new voters to North Carolina are Pennsylvania, California, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Ohio. Although these new voters have caused the 30% decline in the number of registered Democrats, their predominantly progressive political ideology has led to a doubling of self-described liberals.
Since the early 1990s, while serving as President of NCFREE, I asked the following question in all statewide polls: “For most government policies do you prefer the solutions offered by liberals, moderates, or conservatives?” (If Liberal, ask …) “Would that be very liberal or just liberal?” (If conservative, ask …) “Would that be very conservative or just conservative?”
Prior to 1995, the total “Liberal” was always a single digit number in statewide public opinion polls. In 1995, the total “Liberal” increased to 10.3% (“Liberal” 8.8%; “Very Liberal” 1.5%).[i]
Today, polls show the total self-described liberals in North Carolina consistently closer to 20%, with conservatives around 45% and moderates around 35%.
According to Tom Jensen with Public Policy Polling, their latest North Carolina poll shows 16% of our voters describing themselves as liberal, 40% moderate, and 44% conservative. (For emphasis: 56% NOT claiming to be conservative … in a Republican-friendly year!)
A new study released this week by Gallup shows that based on tracking polls throughout 2010 North Carolina is 41.4% conservative, 37.3% moderate and 17.6% liberal. Only two Southern states are more liberal and less conservative than North Carolina: Florida and Virginia. It’s no coincidence that those three states are the only Southern states carried by President Obama.
Although liberals and moderates combined are already well over half of all voters, their share of voters in urban areas increases considerably. Restated for emphasis: Half of all voters in North Carolina’s 100 counties live in 14 urban counties. These 14 counties were carried by the Obama/Biden ticket with 1,027,114 votes to only 692,939 for the GOP McCain/Palin ticket.
Conservative Governance of a Moderate, Battleground State
As stated at the outset, the greatest political challenge ahead for the new GOP legislative majority is how to initiate conservative solutions to state government problems without alienating the majority of voters who prefer results over party or ideology … voters who are more likely to say that they are “liberal” or “moderate” than “conservative”.[i]
Karl Rove writes in today’s Wall Street Journal, “If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Rove concludes, “Americans today want to know what steps Republicans will take to create more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity.”
There you have it. The way to meet the challenge of governing as a conservative in a moderate state is to stay keenly focused on what North Carolinians want … the same thing all Americans want, “more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity.”
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[i] NCFREE statewide survey of 800 registered voters in North Carolina conducted between the dates of February 27 – March 3, 1995. The survey is based upon actual telephone interviews with registered voters.
[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx
[iii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx
[iv] 1990 voter registration numbers are from the State Board of Elections. My sincere thanks to Jacque Blaeske who took the time to find them and send them to me.
– END –
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John N. Davis, President
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/JDPR-2-22-2011-Charlotte-Host-DNC.mp3|titles=JDPR 2 22 2011 Charlotte Host DNC] “NC’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s reelection bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete
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“NC’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s reelection bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete in the changing global marketplace.” Associated Press, February 2, 2011
A Model of Innovation and Global Competitiveness … or Algorithmic Voodoo?
A headline in the Wall Street Journal, Feb. 2, 2011, read, “Democrats’ 2012 Convention Plan Aims to Keep North Carolina Blue.” The story suggested that Charlotte was selected to host the DNC’s national convention in order to send a signal to the political community that President Obama’s target map is not shrinking. The President’s campaign team wants to show that they are confident of repeat wins in historically red states like North Carolina, Indiana and Virginia.
That’s all well and good, but I believe that there is an even more important reason for choosing Charlotte: North 
Carolina. It’s not just Charlotte, it’s our state. Our state represents Obama’s vision of the new model when it comes to innovation and global competitiveness. North Carolina may have been “First in Flight” in the 20th Century, but our growing reputation in the 21st Century is “First in Innovation,” an outgrowth of being “First in Business.”
From Forbes to Site Selection magazine, North Carolina has been recognized as having the “Best Business Climate” year after year for a decade. Democrats beam with pride when they see those national awards of distinction handed to our state. However, Republicans act as if the criteria for identifying our exceptional competitive qualities are based on algorithmic voodoo.
What’s a Republican to Do?
What is a Republican to do? Last fall, North Carolina voters elected Republicans to shore up the long-term prospects of maintaining the state’s favorable business climate by restoring financial health and efficient delivery of governmental services. Those two qualities, financial health and efficient delivery of services, have fallen by the wayside due to unilateral state budget power over too long a period of time by those who put the Democratic Party ahead of the fiscal integrity of the state and the character of its leaders.
Voters are now counting on Republicans to take ownership of our state’s business climate, and to stake a claim for a fair share of all things positive in our state … including the positive qualities like our model business climate that led to the selection of our state as the host state for the Democratic National Convention.
Sharing the Credit for a Business Climate that is the Envy of the Nation
So, before you GOPers start grousing over the positive commentary on the selection of Charlotte for the DNC national confab in 2012, please remember that the mayor of Charlotte during most of the dynamic growth since 1995 was a Republican named Pat McCrory.
Over the past four decades, millions of Republican business leaders and Republican employees have helped build great companies and communities in North Carolina. They, right along with Democratic business leaders and Democratic employees … and Independent business leaders and Independent employees … helped make our state’s business climate the envy of the nation.
Take a look at the lists of high praise below and give some thought about whether these honors would have come to North Carolina without the hard work and good successes of all of us.
North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2010
- No. 1 Best Business Climate 9 of the last 10 years, Site Selection magazine, November
- No. 2 Best State for Business by CEO’s, Chief Executive magazine, May/June
- No. 3 Best State for Business, Forbes, October
- No. 3 State for In-migration, United Van Lines Migration Study
- No. 4 America’s Top States for Business survey, CNBC, July
- No. 5 Pro-Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate
- No. 7 Best-Performing City: Raleigh-Cary area, Milken Institute, October
- Raleigh, Charlotte and Durham Forbes list of Best Places for Business and Careers
North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2009
- No. 1 Best Business Climate 8 of the last 9 years, Site Selection magazine, November
- No. 2 Most Competitive State, Site Selection, May
- No. 2 Best State for Business by CEOs, Chief Executive magazine, February
- No. 3 Pro-Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate, June
- No. 5, Forbes Best States for Business, September
- No. 8, Top States for Nanotechnology, August, 2009 (Raleigh No. 4 for Nano Metros)
- No. 9, America’s Top States for Business study, CNBC, July (No. 2 for Workforce)
- Next Cities list of 60 U.S. Hotspots for Young, Talented Workers : Charlotte under “Super Cities”; Durham under “Midsize Magnets”; Cary under “Mighty Micros.”
- 4 N.C. cities on CNNMoney.com best places for small business startups, Oct. 13
- Best Places for Business and Careers: No. 1 Raleigh, No. 3 Durham, No. 6 Asheville, No. 13 Wilmington, No. 18 Winston-Salem and No. 19 Charlotte (in the “Best Metros” category); and No. 2 Greenville (in the “Best Small Metros” category), Forbes, March
North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2008
- No. 1 Best Business Climate 7 of last 8 years, Site Selection magazine, November
- No. 1 State with Small Metropolitan Areas Having the Most New and Expanded Corporate Facilities, Site Selection magazine, March
- No. 1 Pro Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate, Inc. study
- No. 2 Best Business Climate, Development Counselors International (DCI), July
- No. 3 Most Competitive State, Site Selection, May
- No. 3 Largest Biotech Industry of U.S. States, Beyond Borders, Ernst & Young
- No. 4 for Biotech Strength in Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, Business Facilities, July
- No. 4 Best State for Business, Forbes magazine, July
- No. 6 America’s Top States for Business study, CNBC, July
NC’s Industrial Transformation, the Centerpiece of the Democrats’ Re-election bid
Today, North Carolinians are younger, smarter, and more urban/suburban than they were 10 years ago according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Our 18.5% growth has also created greater diversity. North Carolinians are just as likely to be from somewhere else USA; our demographic profile is more like the nation than the South. As Ferrel Guillory, Director of The Program on Public Life at UNC Chapel Hill, wrote in his essay North Carolina: she ain’t what she used to be, “The state has transformed from biracial to multi-cultural.” Why? Economic opportunity.
North Carolina is one of the emerging states that best exemplifies the message of change that Obama won on in 2008. That’s the thematic reason we were chosen to host the Democrats next September. Young, smart, diverse … first in innovation, leading the way in economic recovery and business investment.
Granted, the commitment by Duke Energy’s CEO Jim Rogers to raise the necessary $37 million to host the event was a critical factor; and, the fact that Charlotte’s new Democratic Mayor Anthony Foxx is tight with the President helped a bit. Ummmmm, and then there is the prospect of a late-night, one-on-one game with Michael Jordan. But none of that would have mattered if North Carolina had not developed into one of the most dynamic places in the world to live, learn, work, raise a family … and make money; one of a handful of states “leading the comeback from the worst recession since the 1930s,” according to an analysis by USA Today.
Associated Press writer Liz Sidoti said it best in her February 1, 2011 story titled, Dems choose Charlotte for 2012 convention. Sidoti wrote, “With the economy certain to dominate Obama’s re-election bid, North Carolina’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s re-election bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete in the changing global marketplace.”
Will Obama Win NC Again? Will the GOP Hold the Legislative Majority?
As the Wall Street Journal story “Democrats’ 2012 Convention Plan Aims to Keep North Carolina Blue” suggested, Charlotte was selected to host the DNC’s national convention to send a signal to the political community that President Obama’s target map is not shrinking.
What are Obama’s prospects for winning North Carolina in 2012? Well, half of all voters in our 100 counties live in 14 urban counties. These 14 counties were carried by the Obama/Biden ticket with 1,027,114 votes to only 692,939 for the GOP presidential ticket of McCain/Palin.
Those 1,027,114 voters who supported Obama/Biden in 2008 still live here, and they are still more likely to support Democrats. It’s an urban thing; same throughout the US.
However, in 2010, independent suburban voters, along with conservative Democrats and loyal Republicans, gave the North Carolina GOP a majority in the state Senate and state House of Representatives. Those voters still live here too.
Whether North Carolinians will give Obama another win in 2012 is uncertain. The more important question is will North Carolinians give Republicans another opportunity to lead the state following the 2012 elections. That is equally uncertain.
What is certain is that Republican odds will improve if they begin to see the state the way everyone else in the country sees North Carolina: youthful and innovative, diverse, leading the way to a globally competitive citizenry … an exemplary state with a business climate that is the envy of the nation … a state fitting for a national political convention.
– END –
Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
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Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention Key Dates in 2012 Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!) Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa
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“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention
Key Dates in 2012
- Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!)
- Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012
- Republican National Convention in Tampa August 27, 2012
- Democratic National Convention in Charlotte September 3, 2012
- General Election Day is November 6, 2012
No political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina … period.
North Carolina became a presidential battleground state in 2008 with President Obama’s historic win. It continues as a battleground state, despite the GOP takeover of the General Assembly.
Any hope among Republicans that they could gain an early advantage in the 2012 elections by parlaying their exclusive legislative power into unilateral political power has been dashed by the selection of Charlotte as the geographical center of President Obama’s campaign for reelection.
President Obama likes North Carolina. He came here 8 times in 2008 after his nomination in Denver. He vacationed here with his family in 2010. Last month he made a major policy speech at Forsyth Tech. And now, Charlotte has been selected as the host city for the Democratic National Convention.
“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink,” a senior Democratic official told ABC News. “President Obama will be very active in North Carolina and … despite what some have speculated, we are going to go as big in 2012 as we did in 2008 — and that means fighting hard for North Carolina, Virginia and all the states and more that helped elect President Obama in the first place.”
It is precisely because no political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina that you need to subscribe to the John Davis Political Report.
No one called the legislative races earlier or more accurately last year. I projected the winner in 47 of 47 NC Senate races (3 races were toss ups), and correctly projected the winner in 111 of 115 NC House races (five races were toss ups). Since the last census, I have correctly projected 1100 of 1144 races in North Carolina … thanks in great part to my analysis of the districts.
I do not lobby, so I have no hesitation with writing objectively and boldly about the political mistakes of legislative leaders and the other factors that drive elections.
I do not have a partisan bias. My value as a political analyst and commentator is in having someone other than a party loyalist keeping you informed about the job party leaders are doing and the implications of their actions, good and bad, for election results in 2012.
I am not a political campaign consultant, so I have no conflict of interest in assessing the strengths of candidates and the status of political races.
Maps do not a majority make
New legislative and congressional districts will be mapped this year, with Republicans in charge for the first time since the 19th Century. Although you can count on Republicans to draw lines that favor their interests, there are many political forces far more important than the maps that I will be investigating on your behalf … like the 2012 battlefield leadership teams, the money, the strengths/weaknesses of the candidates and their consultants, President Obama’s decisions, the economy, unity/disunity among party leaders in North Carolina, political blunders, renegade uprisings, third-party organizations, the presidential and gubernatorial races, and the unforeseen local, state, national and international events of the day that always come along and shift the probability of success to one group of candidates over the other.
Democrats have been winning in Republican districts for decades because of the strengths and commitment of their leaders; because they recruited better candidates, raised more money and hired the best political professionals in the nation … and they worked harder, at least up until 2010 when all of those traditional Democratic strengths, including leaders, money, candidates and professionals, were seized by Republicans.
Who will seize the advantages of leadership, money, candidates and professional talent?
In 2010, I made the case that Democrats were less competitive due to events that had nothing to do with Republicans: like a shakeup of key legislative leaders due to retirements; a failed recruitment effort that left 11 Senate Republicans unchallenged and 29 House Republicans unchallenged; the disruption of corruption scandals; the overall dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and nation at a time when Democrats had all of the power; a disillusioned and unenthusiastic base; the loss of independent voters; a loss of confidence in President Obama, and the absence of a major investment in voter registration, turnout and straight-party voting as seen in 2008 when the Obama camp spent $ millions in NC.
Democratic loyalists would not have given you an accurate assessment of their political liabilities in 2010, and Republican loyalists are not going to give you an accurate assessment of their liabilities during the 2011-2012 election cycle.
This is where I come in. The weekly John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle, as well as the partisan momentum tracking in the Late Breaking Trends report, is available to you with the Premium subscription for $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.
The Advantage subscription will give you a greater sense of certainty about the politics of 2012 … earlier than anyone else. More specifically, my goal is to give you the advantage that comes from knowing the likely outcome of primary and general election races months in advance in order that you might plan ahead and invest effectively.
Subscribe today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
– END –
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Post: December 7, 2010 Volume III, No. 2 “I can’t control my caucus anymore.” NC Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, Sited in John Davis Political Report, Volume II, No. 8, December 10, 2009 NOTE: For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking
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Post: December 7, 2010 Volume III, No. 2
“I can’t control my caucus anymore.” NC Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, Sited in John Davis Political Report, Volume II, No. 8, December 10, 2009
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A Political Wave Does Not a Majority Make
Many assert that the Republican “Wave” of 2010 was the reason that North Carolina Republicans won the majority in both chambers of the General Assembly on November 2, a first since 1898. Well, if all it takes is a GOP “Wave,” then why haven’t Republicans won the majority in the North 
Carolina General Assembly more often than the one time in 1994 … during a stretch of 112 years? Why is it that only two other states, Oregon and Washington, have an undefeated run of Democratic governors as long as North Carolina?
Sorry, a wave does not a majority make.
The Republican “wave” that swept the U.S. this fall presented a wonderful opportunity for Republicans to achieve historic gains in North Carolina … but nothing more than a wonderful opportunity. Democrats have always been able to beat back the national Republican wave election years because of money, savvy and unity … aided by underfunded Republican candidates and Republican Party disunity.
In 2010, the Republican and Democratic caucus strengths were reversed. It was the Democrats who began to self destruct. Republicans seized that opportunity by doing everything right while the Democrats were doing the most important things wrong.
The potential for Republicans to hold the majority long term has nothing to do with “wave” elections, it is great because they have gotten very good at winning campaigns.
Divided Democratic Leadership Led by Inexperienced War Generals
The NC Senate Democratic Caucus started down the road to defeat on November 17, 2009, a year before the 2010 elections. That was the day Sen. Martin Nesbitt (D-Buncombe) was elected Majority Leader following the abrupt resignation of long-time Majority Leader and Rules Chairman Sen. Tony Rand (D-Cumberland).
Rand was a great war general; Nesbitt was not.
The historic era of unparalleled power of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight came to an end that day. Basnight began to tell his friends, “I can’t control my caucus anymore.” A new era of Senate leadership began, an era led by seasoned urban lawyers with unquestionable public policy credentials … but not political combat credentials.
Marc Basnight and Tony Rand were unquestionably two of the most powerful legislative leaders in state history … powerful because they knew how to win campaigns even during GOP wave years. However, they wielded their power with such ruthless efficiency that over time they made lots of enemies … including in their own caucus. The little known fact outside the Raleigh beltline is that Basnight and Rand were slowly becoming a minority in their majority caucus.
Basnight and his inner circle were business owners. Their fatal flaw was the failure to see the value in maintaining a base of philosophical allies in their caucus by recruiting and helping elect other Democratic business owners.
And so, imperceptibly over time, a liberal coalition of Senate Democrats grew in number and coalesced to create its own force, a mutinous force that became stronger than that of the leaders Basnight and Rand.
Thus, the fall of the Basnight/Rand Empire … and with it, a divided caucus led by inexperienced political war generals. They were doomed a year ago.
United Republican Leadership Led by Seasoned War Generals Who Can Raise Money
By 2008, Senate Republicans and their political team under the leadership of Phil Berger from Eden had become seasoned political combat veterans. They had become so good that they would have won a majority of seats in the North Carolina Senate, during one of the worst years for Republicans in modern political history, if it were not for the unity, savvy and especially the fundraising prowess of the Basnight/Rand political machine.
Senate Democrats were forced to spend an average of $500,000 per competitive race just to fend off Republicans who spent a third of that. That’s how effective Republican leaders, their political staff and their consultants had become at winning campaigns. They were a serious political threat even during a Democratic “Wave” … long before the GOP wave came along.
Among House Republicans, a strong political war general was needed. In 2010, that leader emerged in the name of Thom Tillis, a two-term member of the House from Huntersville. Tillis joined Skip Stam from Apex in what has become a powerful force with a working relationship that has the long-term potential equal to that of Basnight and Rand. They are competent, intelligent, politically savvy, and committed to the state … with a priority of restoring the state’s economic vitality. Oh, and they can raise money!
“We went in united, we came out united.”
Most importantly, Stam and Tillis are united.
I asked a House member to tell me about the Republican House Caucus meeting held a couple of weeks ago during which Skip Stam and Thom Tillis vied against each other for the position of Speaker. That member said, “We went in united, we came out united … thanks to the way Skip Stam and Thom Tillis conducted themselves.” That speaks well for long-term majority status for Republicans in the North Carolina House.
And speaking of the importance of unity and political warfare experience, the role played by NC GOP Party Chair Tom Fetzer in 2009 and 2010 cannot be overstated. A party with a history of being divided, conservative versus moderates, came together under the leadership of Fetzer. Fetzer not only brought unity to the GOP this election cycle, he brought political savvy and fundraising skills from his years as Mayor of Raleigh and as a political consultant.
Fetzer’s rallying theme for the 2010 elections: “One Team, One Goal, Victory.” Unity, savvy and successful fundraising is why Republicans won in 2010. Otherwise, 2010 would have been just another Republican “wave” year written off as a just another missed opportunity.
Don’t Dismiss the Significance of the GOP Commitment
To suggest that “the wave” alone would have carried the GOP into power in 2010 not only flies in the face of NC history, it dismisses the significance of the GOP commitment.
- It dismisses the significance of a leave-it-all-on-the-battlefield 18-month commitment of time and energy by an atypically savvy and united group of NC Republican party leaders and their exceptional staff;
- It dismisses the significance of an atypically savvy and united Senate and House Republican caucus leadership team and their exceptional political staff;
- It dismisses the definitive value of the thousands of volunteers who manned the phone banks for months making 2 million calls so they would not be beat this year in the early voting turnout;
- It dismisses the extraordinary class of candidates who neglected their families and risked their personal resources while working the campaign trail to exhaustion day after week after month after month … nights and weekends;
- It dismisses the significance of thousands of new contributors to Republican candidates and the hard work of those who took the time to work the phones raising the money;
- It dismisses the significance of new independent expenditure groups that followed the 2008 labor union play book with a partisan investment of millions;
- It dismisses the significance of the fact that through mid-October, Republican fundraising was UP twice as much as in 2008 while Democrats were DOWN $2 million;
- It dismisses the significance of the Tea Partiers and all of those rallies held all over the state … rallies organized by organizations like Americans for Prosperity and Civitas … rallies that would not have happened if it were not for committed and hard-working staff;
- It dismisses the significance of the value of 60 polls made public by organizations like Civitas, Carolina Strategy Group and Public Policy Polling … and groups like the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation who compiled political research for easy access;
- It dismisses the significance of the value of organizations like the John Locke Foundation that was a constant source of misery for Gov. Perdue and the Democratic establishment, keeping them tripped up with their effective investigative reporting and in-your-face news releases;
- It dismisses the significance of the constant drum beat of conservative thought pushed into the public conscience by talk radio, Fox News and a gazillion conservative publications and web sites.
Republicans in other states may have inadvertently won the power because of the national wave. Here in North Carolina, the “wave” was nothing more than an opportunity.
Republicans seized that opportunity by doing everything right while the Democrats were doing the most important things wrong. The potential for Republicans to hold the majority long term has nothing to do with “wave” elections, it is great because they have gotten very good at winning campaigns.
Well, there you have it, the John Davis Political Report for Tuesday, December 7, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
For those of you who are subscribers, I thank you so much for supporting my work.
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“As a former member of the North Carolina House, Senate and Executive Branch of North Carolina government, I would not want to be without the John Davis Political Report – a must for those that love the political arena and our state!” Glenn Jernigan, Glenn Jernigan & Associates
“I am frequently asked to identify the brightest political mind in North Carolina. Even before his amazingly accurate and perceptive views on the historic 2010 election, I always responded, “JOHN DAVIS.” Now I doubt anyone will have to ask me because John’s political forecasting, along with his rationale, received widespread attention every day during the final months of the campaign.” Phil Kirk, President/CEO Emeritus, North Carolina Chamber; Chairman Emeritus, State Board of Education; Director, Brady Energy Services
“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
“Just straight up, fact-based, analysis.” Richard H. Moore, Treasurer, North Carolina, 2000 – 2008
“John Davis was right, he was early, and he made the bold calls publicly with political evidence. There was no need for a crystal ball; he simply used history, common sense and solid political science. He called the legislative ‘flip’ to GOP control earlier than any other analyst.” Bill Weatherspoon, American Petroleum Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina
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Post: December 2, 2010 Volume III, No. 1 “According to Davis, the number of Senate seats competitive for both major political parties has dropped from 14 out of 50 under the 1992 Senate Plan to only 6 out of 50 under the 2001 Senate Plan. Similarly, Davis asserts that the number of competitive House seats
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Post: December 2, 2010 Volume III, No. 1
“According to Davis, the number of Senate seats competitive for both major political parties has dropped from 14 out of 50 under the 1992 Senate Plan to only 6 out of 50 under the 2001 Senate Plan. Similarly, Davis asserts that the number of competitive House seats has dropped from 32 out of 120 under the 1992 House Plan to only 14 out of 120 under the 2001 House Plan.” NC Supreme Court opinion, Stephenson v. Bartlett, citing deposition of John Davis, NCFREE Executive Director
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Stephenson v. Bartlett – The Forgotten Reason Why the NC GOP Won the Majority in 2010
One month ago today, November 2, 2010, North Carolina Republicans made history by winning the majority of the seats in the state Senate and House of Representatives. There are three primary reasons the GOP prevailed:
- Weak and divided Democratic leadership which lost the campaign $ advantage … during a GOP wave election year.
- Strong and united Republican leadership which achieved campaign $ parity … during a GOP wave election year.
- Stephenson v. Bartlett case of 2002 that led to a leveling of partisan districts
The Stephenson v. Bartlett case is the historic redistricting decision handed down by the NC Supreme Court in 2002 that threw out the brazenly 
gerrymandered maps drawn by legislative Democrats after the 2000 census. That case led to the leveling of the partisan playing field throughout the decade.
Without Stephenson v. Bartlett, the number of state senate and house districts drawn to favor Democrats would likely have been too great to overcome, even in 2010 with a strong Republican leadership team and GOP-friendly momentum.
I had the pleasure of serving as an impartial witness in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case in 2002, and was honored that my testimony was cited in the written opinion of the NC Supreme Court. Here are the facts before and after Stephenson v. Bartlett:
NC Senate Democrats from 12-Seat Advantage to 0-Seat Advantage
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 28 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 16 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
- After the judicially mandated remapping of districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a total loss of the advantage for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
NC House Democrats from 12-Seat Advantage to 4-Seat DISADVANTAGE
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 59 House districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 47 House districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts. There were 14 swing House districts.
- After judicially mandated remapping the districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 51 districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 55 districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net loss of 16 districts favoring Democrats when adding the net advantage for Republicans of 4 districts. There were still 14 swing districts.
So how is it that Democrats have been able to maintain power with a level playing field? The short answer is lots of money and a strong political leadership team. Democrats have been masters at parlaying their power into a 70-to-30 campaign spending advantage. They have also been masters at the fundamentals of winning campaigns. For many years I have referred to the Senate Democratic Caucus as the national model state legislative political war machine.
However, if you take away their strong Democratic leadership team and their financial advantage, they are left with a level political playing field thanks to the Stephenson v. Bartlett case. That’s what happened this year.
What made 2010 politically catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that they had to deal with an era of corrupt leaders, a Republican-friendly year, a weak governor, a high turnover of incumbents, an unpopular president, state budget problems, a national economic slump, anti-establishment voters, the Tea Party movement, low enthusiasm, low turnout of their base, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, record deficit spending, an unpopular war, a surge in opposition strength, and a loss of the campaign $ advantage … all at the same time.
Meanwhile, Republicans united for the first time as political pragmatists who finally accepted the fact that you can’t govern if you don’t win and you can’t win without money. Voila!
My sincerest congratulations to the Republican Party leadership and staff, to the GOP Senate Caucus leadership and staff, to the GOP House Caucus leadership and staff, and to all of you Republicans in North Carolina who have been denied the opportunity to have your ideas debated because of heavy-handed Democratic leadership who sent them to the Rules Committee for an early demise.
I hope that Republicans will do a better job than the Democrats at respecting the diversity of opinion in North Carolina …respecting diversity of opinion not just tolerating diversity of opinion. When it comes to conservative ideology, North Carolina’s liberal Democrats have a history of intolerance equal in every way to intolerant conservatives.
Speaking of respecting diversity of opinion, perhaps the greatest takeaway from the 2010 election cycle is: ignore the priorities of voters at your own peril. Both parties have had to learn that lesson the hard way during this decade.
Well, there you have it. This is the first John Davis Political Report of the 2011-2012 election cycle.
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May you have the happiest of times with your family in the coming weeks!
“As a former member of the North Carolina House, Senate and Executive Branch of North Carolina government, I would not want to be without the John Davis Political Report – a must for those that love the political arena and our state!” Glenn Jernigan, Glenn Jernigan & Associates
“I am frequently asked to identify the brightest political mind in North Carolina. Even before his amazingly accurate and perceptive views on the historic 2010 election, I always responded, “JOHN DAVIS.” Now I doubt anyone will have to ask me because John’s political forecasting, along with his rationale, received widespread attention every day during the final months of the campaign.” Phil Kirk, President/CEO Emeritus, North Carolina Chamber; Chairman Emeritus, State Board of Education; Director, Brady Energy Services
“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
“Just straight up, fact-based, analysis.” Richard H. Moore, Treasurer, North Carolina, 2000 – 2008
“John Davis was right, he was early, and he made the bold calls publicly with political evidence. There was no need for a crystal ball; he simply used history, common sense and solid political science. He called the legislative ‘flip’ to GOP control earlier than any other analyst.” Bill Weatherspoon, American Petroleum Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina
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