Part IV: Liability 9 “The Toyota affair emphasizes some basic points of management. First, any company, no matter how large and how famous for its merits, can stumble into grave error. Second, damaged pride and nervous fear make it difficult to correct the error in good time. Third, management decisions should normally never be taken
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Part IV: Liability 9
“The Toyota affair emphasizes some basic points of management. First, any company, no matter how large and how famous for its merits, can stumble into grave error. Second, damaged pride and nervous fear make it difficult to correct the error in good time. Third, management decisions should normally never be taken on the basis of profit forecasts alone.” Edward de Bono & Robert Heller, The Toyota disaster – and what we can learn from it[i]
This is Part IV in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company in that they are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of
sloppy standards and corrupt leaders. Parts I, II, and III can be found at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
The 10 premises in the series, all political liabilities, lead to the following conclusion: Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win. And that is what is happening in this state.
The following paragraph is restated from the last report for emphasis: What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
In Parts I, II and III of the series, I wrote about liabilities including:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker; Perdue the Ethics Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
Here is number nine:
#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative
Those who make the laws should abide by them. Those who would be leaders should lead by example. These two moral imperatives have been overshadowed in the North Carolina Democratic Party by their #1 moral imperative: Partisan power at all costs.
North Carolina Democrats offer protection for their errant leaders behind a wall of silence. If one among them breaks the law (quid pro quo deals, Cannonsgate, quid pro quo deals, illegal flights, quid pro quo deals, tax evasion, and more quid pro quo deals), or compromises principles and values (Law Enforcement Associates’ no-bid contract, university job plus 88% salary increase for Gov’s wife, a judicial district for your DA buddy who lost his election, using the “N” word in front of your six-year-old child, $27,012 for limo services in France), the first sense of moral obligation for North Carolina Democrats is to keep quiet and bide their time.
Keep Your Mouth Shut Long Enough, and the Problem will Go Away
Toyota handled its problems with defective accelerator pedals on millions of its vehicles the same way North Carolina Democrats have handled their problems with defective leaders: they stonewalled the public. “They did try to hide it — that’s what we accused them of — and they’ve agreed to that,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood told the Associated Press, upon announcing the largest fine in department history in April of this year. Toyota put profit over principle. They knew parts were defective and kept it under wraps. If it were not for whistleblowers forcing exposure, people would still be dying in runaway Toyota automobiles.
Democrats know that they can use their unchecked power to muscle everyone with a legislative agenda to be a stone in their protective wall of silence. From lobbyists and governmental agency heads, to members of boards and commissions, education officials … even some news reporters; all are aware that you better protect the leadership at all costs or you don’t get access.
No access means no money, no new buildings, no inside scoop, no road contracts … no nothing.
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Part III: Liabilities 7-8 “Our first job is to vote out all politicians, local, state and federal, who work against the founding philosophy and principals of our country.”[i] W. David Stedman, Ret. Chmn., Stedman Corporation, Asheboro, The Destruction of the Great American Dream This is Part III in a series of reports suggesting that the
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Part III: Liabilities 7-8
“Our first job is to vote out all politicians, local, state and federal, who work against the founding philosophy and principals of our country.”[i]
W. David Stedman, Ret. Chmn., Stedman Corporation, Asheboro, The Destruction of the Great American Dream
This is Part III in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company in that they are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders.
Forbes.com carried an editorial on April 26, 2010, titled, The Real Reason for Toyota’s Troubles, in which Kenneth Brill, founder of the Uptime Institute, hypothesized that the random catastrophic failure of Toyota’s acceleration systems was most likely the result of multiple and perhaps unrelated interacting causes. “At least five and as many as ten things must interact to produce the failure of a well-designed system,” said Brill, “Any one thing by itself will cause a problem but not a catastrophic event.”
What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that there are ten political liabilities unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of the Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to a Loss of Market Share would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
In Parts I and II of the series, I wrote about liabilities including:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker; Perdue the Ethics Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
Here are liabilities 7 and 8:
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
Wednesday, Gallup announced that so far in 2010, an average of only 23% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. The 2010 average is “well below the 40% historical average” over the past 30 years, and is the “lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, dating to 1982.”[ii]
To put this percentage in perspective, the all-time high was 71% in February, 1999, when we were enjoying the longest period of economic expansion in U.S. history. The all-time low was 7% in October 2008, leading to catastrophic losses for the “ins”: Republicans.
The dissatisfaction sweeping the county first became apparent last summer with TV news footage of awkward and embarrassed incumbents taken aback by the ire of finger-wagging-in-your-face constituents at Town Hall Meetings. The political significance of the dissatisfaction played out with upsets in the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey, and with the shocking upset election of Republican Scott Brown in former Sen. Ted Kennedy’s seat.
In April, another key antiestablishment signal came with the stunning turnabout in the U.S. Senate GOP primary race in Florida, where incumbent GOP Gov. Charlie Crist dropped out to run as an Independent because the more conservative GOP candidate had a 2-to-1 advantage.
Last week, we saw the antiestablishment ouster of incumbents like Republican Bob Bennett in Utah and West Virginia Democrat Allan Mollohan. This week we saw the antiestablishment overthrow of Pennsylvania’s Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter, along with the big Tea Party antiestablishment upset in Kentucky as Rand Paul was elected GOP Senate nominee despite Republican Party establishment opposition.
In Arkansas, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln was forced into a primary runoff with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter as the antiestablishment/anti-Washington virus spread west of the Mississippi, reinforcing the meaning of the state’s motto, “Regnat Populus,” meaning “The People Rule.”
David Stedman, Ret. Chmn., Stedman Corporation, Asheboro, writes in his latest book, The Destruction of the Great American Dream, “Our first job is to vote out all politicians, local, state and federal, who work against the founding philosophy and principals of our country.”[iii] Based on what voters have done since last summer, it looks like a lot of folks read his book!
Just like Republicans, who were in trouble in North Carolina when satisfaction with the direction of the country was low in 2008, Democrats in North Carolina are in trouble with low satisfaction with the direction of the country in 2010 … the “lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, dating to 1982.”v]
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
Imagine a parade without a leader; a parade that simply forms in the street and grows in number as people come out of their kitchens and backyards and join those already on the march. That’s what’s happening in American politics today. Pundits and party pros snobbishly criticize the lack of organization of groups like the Tea Party movement, in denial that these folks are a bottom up parade of angry citizens who are using the Internet rather than the party as a means of communicating with each other and turning out their like-minded voters.
In a Politico story yesterday titled, Activists seize control of politics, Jim Vande Hei wrote, “The old structures that protected incumbent power are weakening. New structures, from partisan news outlets to online social networks, are giving anti-establishment politicians access to two essential elements of effective campaigns: publicity and financial support.”[v]
Take a look at the following political ad for Alabama Commissioner of Agriculture. This is a great example of the power of the internet as an equalizer to traditional party communications advantages:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU7fhIO7DG0&NR=1
This ad has been posted for one day and has been seen by 818,244 people … including you. Cost to the candidate for those 818,244 views? $0. This guy is going to win without the party.
Even the most liberal sources acknowledge the Internet as a means to bypass the traditional party infrastructures and win campaigns. This week, Markos Moulitsas of the liberal Daily Kos said, “The old structures have been eroding, … we’re building a world in which people can bypass their parties’ institutional forces and make up their own minds on who to support.”
On Tuesday, Gallup unveiled a new national poll on enthusiasm in which they concluded, “Conservatives are significantly more enthusiastic about voting in this fall’s congressional elections than are liberals or moderates. Those who say they are “very” conservative are the most enthusiastic of all.”
Experts have concluded that catastrophic failure of Toyota’s acceleration systems was most likely the result of multiple causes happening at the same time. What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that there are 10 political liabilities unfolding at the same time, not the least of which are the historic low level of satisfaction with the direction of the country and the high level of enthusiasm for voting among conservatives.
[i] The Destruction of the Great American Dream, W. David Stedman, Published 2009; Pg. 37
[ii] Gallup, May 19, 2010; http://www.gallup.com/poll; Satisfaction with U.S. Historically Low for Midterm Year
[iii] The Destruction of the Great American Dream, W. David Stedman, Published 2009; Pg. 37
[iv] Gallup, May 19, 2010; http://www.gallup.com/poll; Satisfaction with U.S. Historically Low for Midterm Year
[v] http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37468.html#ixzz0oOWBrAJG
Part II: Liabilities 5 – 6 NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans. This is Part II in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much
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Part II: Liabilities 5 – 6
NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans.
This is Part II in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company. They are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders.
Last Tuesday, May 4, the Associated Press reported that a U.S. Senate committee was recommending a major overhaul to the nation’s auto safety requirements following Toyota’s recalls involving 8 million cars and trucks. Toyota was forced to pay a record fine for failing to disclose a safety defect with sticking gas pedals in a timely manner, and is currently facing an estimated $4 billion in personal injury/wrongful death lawsuits.[i]
On Monday, the AP reported that Toyota spent a record $2,498 per vehicle on incentives in March, a 53% increase over last year. [ii] Toyota is minimizing brand damage caused by faulty gas pedals and brakes the same way the state Democratic Party minimizes brand damage caused by sloppy standards and corrupt leaders: by spending a lot of money on spin control.
In Part I of the series, I wrote about:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
Here are political liabilities 5 – 6:
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker like Perdue the Ethics Governor
I was sitting at the kitchen table Tuesday morning reading a story in the News & Observer about yet another NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) investigation into Toyota’s failure to report problems with defective steering rods,[iii] when a Toyota ad came on the television. The carmaker was extolling its commitment to safety. Ironically, the N&O also carried a story Tuesday about Gov. Perdue extolling her commitment to ethics reform.
If you are committed to ethics reform, you really should do something besides just claim to be for ethics reform. And, if you are going to make speeches around the state decrying the evils of “smoke-filled rooms,” “pay-to-play” politics and “back room dealing,” you certainly don’t hire people like … ummmmm, well, to quote Gov. Perdue, “I don’t have to give any examples. I don’t have to call any names.”[iv] (Actually, I was going to name former state Senator Tony “Back Room Deal” Rand, who served as Chairman of the Rules Committee and Majority Leader in the Senate until last year, but thought better of it.) Second thought:
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Part I: Liabilities 1 – 4 NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans. Toyota Motor Company has lost market share because of worldwide recalls of millions of its cars due to management mistakes
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Part I: Liabilities 1 – 4
NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans.
Toyota Motor Company has lost market share because of worldwide recalls of millions of its cars due to management mistakes that led to frightening problems like mysterious acceleration, unreliable breaks and rollovers.[i] Meanwhile, Ford Motor Company just posted a $2.1 billion first quarter profit and is touting the best market share gain since 1977. “It benefited from Toyota’s safety recalls of millions of vehicles,” said Kelley Blue Book, “Ford was one of the top brands considered by Toyota owners who were shopping for a new car.”[ii]
Toyota’s brand is so damaged by sloppy standards that it must now offer promotional gimmicks like 0% loans and $2,000 rebates to lure customers. Likewise, the brand of the North Carolina Democrat Party is so tarnished by a decade of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders that the only way it has kept Republicans from taking over state government is by outspending them 3-to-1 on incentives and political promotional gimmicks.
Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win; that is what is happening in this state.
During the next few weeks I will be writing about the Top 10 political liabilities that have cost Democrats market share and turned the North Carolina Democratic Party into the Toyota Motor Company of state politics. Here are the first four:
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“If the effort [North Carolina First political party] does manage to get on the ballot, expect candidates in U.S. House races in Districts 7 [Democrat Mike McIntyre], District 8 [Democrat Larry Kissell] and District 11 [Democrat Heath Shuler]. They’re the homes of the three Democratic members of Congress who voted against their party’s healthcare bill.”
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“If the effort [North Carolina First political party] does manage to get on the ballot, expect candidates in U.S. House races in Districts 7 [Democrat Mike McIntyre], District 8 [Democrat Larry Kissell] and District 11 [Democrat Heath Shuler]. They’re the homes of the three Democratic members of Congress who voted against their party’s healthcare bill.” [i]
The image of Democratic candidates running for political office in North Carolina this year reminds me of Lord Tennyson’s dramatic Crimean War poem The Charge of the Light Brigade. Written in 1854, the poem tells the true story of British Cavalry charging into a valley with the Russian enemy on three sides. Cannon to the right of them, cannon to the left of them, cannon in front of them … into the jaws of Death, into the mouth of Hell rode the six hundred.
As if Democrats didn’t already have their hands full charging into battle with Republicans to the right of them and 1.4 million Unaffiliated voters in front of them, along comes a new union-backed group to the left of them called North Carolina First.
North Carolina First is funded by SEIU, the Service Employees International Union. SEIU invested $1.8 million in North Carolina candidates in 2008. SEANC, the State Employees Association of North Carolina, is SEIU’s Local #2008. Although 97% of their money went to Democrats in 2008, SEIU is back in 2010 to teach three conservative Democrats who voted against Obama’s healthcare bill a lesson. And they are not stopping with Members of Congress.
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“Americans’ favorable rating of the Democratic Party dropped to 41% in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, the lowest point in the 18 year history of this measure.”[i] USA Today/Gallup poll, April 8, 2010 Archbishop Desmond Tutu, winner of Nobel Peace Prize for his work to end apartheid in South Africa, told the following story when he spoke
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“Americans’ favorable rating of the Democratic Party dropped to 41% in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, the lowest point in the 18 year history of this measure.”[i] USA Today/Gallup poll, April 8, 2010
Archbishop Desmond Tutu, winner of Nobel Peace Prize for his work to end apartheid in South Africa, told the following story when he spoke last May at the graduation
ceremonies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill: A traveler walking through the countryside stopped to admire a beautiful field of corn. He said to the farmer, “My, you and God have surely created a beautiful field of corn.” The farmer thanked the traveler and then said, “You should have seen it when God had it by Himself.”
Tutu built his entire commencement address on the notion that no problem is ever going to be solved unless someone steps up and does the hard work. “God allowed apartheid,” he said, “Apartheid was not ended by God. It was ended by His helpers.”
This year, we are faced with many great challenges … especially economic. However, the emerging greatest challenge is leadership … deciding whose ideas we are going to trust with the problems of the day. Ultimately, the ideas instituted will be those advocated by citizens who step up and do the hard work of winning campaigns. In 2008, it was the Obama camp. Today, it’s the Tea Party folks who are stepping up. These folks are tea’d. They are sick and tired of politicians pushing artificial sweetener on them in the form of government programs.
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“In the time of Joseph McCarthyism, celebrated in the Pogo strip by a character named Simple J. Malarkey, I attempted to explain each individual is wholly involved in the democratic process, work at it or no. The results of the process fall on the head of the public and he who is recalcitrant or procrastinates in
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“In the time of Joseph McCarthyism, celebrated in the Pogo strip by a character named Simple J. Malarkey, I attempted to explain each individual is wholly involved in the democratic process, work at it or no. The results of the process fall on the head of the public and he who is recalcitrant or procrastinates in raising his voice can blame no one but himself.”[i]
Walt Kelly, Pogo Papers, 1952
Healthcare reform was inevitable because the necessity for change was greater than the fear of change. The insurance industry has simply jerked too many Americans around too many times and done nothing about the cries for relief other than raise rates and lower coverage.
In the March 11 report I wrote, “Obama is smart enough to come out of the healthcare reform debate with a win. He has to. His entire agenda is at stake. He will make whatever sacrifices are necessary to declare a victory.” Well, he gave up the public option and agreed to a pro-life presidential decree. He won.
I also wrote in March that by the time the May primaries roll around in North Carolina, the healthcare debate will be old news. “Obama will be directing his energies to the other problematic issues for Democrats by then: the economy, jobs, and big government spending. There will be an uptick in the job approval numbers for the President and the Congress, and most incumbents will win their primaries.”
I’m sticking with that forecast, and adding this one: Financial regulatory reform is inevitable because the need is greater than the fear of change. The banking industry and Wall Street investment houses have simply jerked too many Americans around too many times and done nothing about the cries for relief other than raise fees and lower services.
If Republicans stand with Wall Street in the upcoming financial reform debate, they will wind up on the losing end of that legislation as well.
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“Basnight often gives campaign money to the state Democratic Party, which can give unlimited amounts to legislative candidates.” AP, March 18, 2010 1 Last Thursday night, former Democratic Gov. Jim Hunt hosted a fundraiser for Democratic Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight at the State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. According to the Associated Press, 300 to 400 people
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“Basnight often gives campaign money to the state Democratic Party, which can give unlimited amounts to legislative candidates.” AP, March 18, 2010 1
Last Thursday night, former Democratic Gov. Jim Hunt hosted a fundraiser for Democratic Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight at the State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. According to the Associated Press, 300 to 400 people paying $100-$4000 were expected to show up in order that the good senator from Dare County would have the war chest needed to continue the 114-year winning streak of the Senate Democratic caucus.
Money flows to those with power. Those with power use the money to keep their power. Those with money use those with power to keep their money. Many of those in attendance at the fairgrounds represented large corporations who claim to be champions of the free market system of economy; a system whereby private interests compete for profit with little governmental intervention. Truth be known, many of those large corporations … like Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Carolina … use government intervention to gain a competitive advantage over their competition; a role government leaders like former Sen. Tony Rand are happy to play … provided you pay … at events like the fundraiser last Thursday night.
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“There’s no real financial infrastructure under the [state] Republican Party, and I reckon building one will take a long time,” he said. And doing so will be “sort of like straightening out a train wreck.” — Carter Wrenn, NC Republican Consultant This is a very fragile time for North Carolina House Democrats and Republicans. They all
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“There’s no real financial infrastructure under the [state] Republican Party, and I reckon building one will take a long time,” he said. And doing so will be “sort of like straightening out a train wreck.” — Carter Wrenn, NC Republican Consultant
This is a very fragile time for North Carolina House Democrats and Republicans. They all know that to some extent their political fortunes this year are tied to the results of President Obama’s reform agenda, beginning with healthcare legislation. If he prevails, the value of his stock as a reform leader will rebound and the tarnished image of the Democratic Party will be polished up a bit. If he fails, all bets are off. Republicans will have a huge surge in momentum which will yield more investors making larger investments, an event that would be devastating for Democrats who have always been able to count on a financial advantage to win the close races.
I am persuaded that Obama is smart enough to come out of the healthcare reform debate with a win. He has to. His entire agenda is at stake. He will make whatever sacrifices are necessary to declare a victory, “… a victory for the uninsured and the underinsured who can’t afford care.”
The greater likelihood is that by the time the May primaries roll around, the healthcare debate will be old news. Obama will be directing his energies to the other problematic issues for Democrats by then: the economy, jobs, and big government spending. There will be an uptick in the job approval numbers for the President and the Congress, and most incumbents will win their primaries. There have only been two states with primaries thus far: Illinois and Texas. All incumbent members of congress seeking reelection won their races.
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“Republican candidates who win independents will take the oath of office — period.”1 — Glen Bolger and Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies I am stunned. How is it possible that the fortunes of the Democratic Party could plummet so far so fast? One year ago they were enjoying the spoils of victory after riding the
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“Republican candidates who win independents will take the oath of office — period.”1 — Glen Bolger and Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies
I am stunned. How is it possible that the fortunes of the Democratic Party could plummet so far so fast? One year ago they were enjoying the spoils of victory after riding the crest of an anti-establishment wave created by the Bush administration’s low approval ratings and the inspirational candidacy of Barack Obama and his message of “change we can believe in.” For the first time in 40 years, they claimed the state’s top three political prizes in the same election year, President, U.S. Senator and Governor, and held a majority in both houses of the legislature.
Now, it’s the Democrats flailing about in a stormy sea of angry voters and in danger of losing many of the partisan advantages they gained in 2008. It’s the Democratic brand that’s tarnished.
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