[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Aug-18-IPD-Obama.mp3|titles=Aug 18 IPD Obama] Post: August 18, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 21 “You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.” Fmr. Wyoming Republican U.S. Senator Alan Simpson, Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission Investors Political Daily: Obama’s Probability of Carrying NC in 2012 is 44% This is the first
[More…]
Post: August 18, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 21
“You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.”
Fmr. Wyoming Republican U.S. Senator Alan Simpson,
Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission
Investors Political Daily: Obama’s Probability of Carrying NC in 2012 is 44%
This is the first look at President Obama’s probability of carrying North Carolina next year using a dozen key political and economic variables.
Click here to view PDF of Key Variables for Obama’s Probability of carrying NC.
If the election for president were held today, Obama would only receive about 44% support in North Carolina.
As you will see when you open the chart, although Obama’s numbers are lousy the Republicans are not much better.
- 56% of “independent voters” in NC disapprove of the job Pres. Obama is doing; 38% approve
- 38% of NC voters tend to favor Democrats; 40% tend to favor Republicans
- 39% of NC voters supported raising the debt limit with deep cuts (Obama’s position)
- Unlike the US as a whole, more North Carolinians support the Tea Party (42%) than oppose it (37%). Nationally, 51% of voters see Tea Party unfavorably; 31% favorably
Obama Lost Favor with Voters Immediately After Taking Office
Last June 10, 2010, I wrote a report titled, Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointments. It was about why Obama’s “Job Approval” had plummeted to quickly. The list is still relevant:
POST JUNE 10, 2010
Obama Disappoints: Average Weekly Job Approval Reaches All-Time Low in June
The great hope for change in Washington has been reduced to great disappointments following political disaster after political disaster. It’s little wonder that President Obama’s job approval rating is only 44%, a 52-week low. According to Gallup, Obama’s weekly average job approval has reached a new low as well, 46%, from a weekly average of 65% this time a year ago.[i]
- He ran as a man of great courage but has become a defensive scapegoater
- He ran as a friend of the environmentalists but authorized more offshore drilling
- He ran as a dove but has morphed into a hawk on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
- He ran as a uniter but has become a partisan wrecking ball with his legislative agenda
- He ran as a centrist but is governing as a liberal surrounded by liberals
- He ran as a man of the people but put his priority, healthcare, ahead of their priority, jobs
- He ran as a man who would close Gitmo and would not hire lobbyists … ha!
- He ran as a leader committed to fiscal responsibility but is overseeing a doubling of the national debt (projected at $19 trillion by 2015); “unsustainable” said Bernanke 6/10
- He ran against Wall Street but recapitalized their bonuses with taxpayer money
- He ran as an economic and jobs stimulator but unemployment/underemployment is still at 20%,[ii] with almost all of the new jobs in May being temporary with the Census Bureau
- He said his would be the most transparent administration in history yet he manages the news media with connivances, stonewalling and defensive double-speak
Obama would be well served to closet himself for a while at the White House and ponder Ralph Waldo Emerson’s sage caution, “What you are speaks so loudly, I cannot hear what you say.”
Obama’s potential for reelection is still within striking range, although more and more — in order to stay in the running — he has to rely on voter dissatisfaction with all parties and all elected officials … especially those in Washington D.C. associated with the nation’s debt and jobs crisis.
Our national financial position is so weak that it prompted Alan Simpson, fmr. Wyoming GOP U.S. Senator and Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission to retort, “You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.”
Next week Investors Political Daily will look at Gov. Perdue’s probability of a 2012 win.
– END –
[i] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx
[ii] http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx June 10, 2010
NEW Premium Monthly Subscription! Due to popular demand, a monthly rate for the $245 half-price Premium Annual Subscription to the John Davis Political Report is now available at $23 per month (cancel at any time).
Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online HERE!
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Aug-11-IPD-Obama.mp3|titles=Aug 11 IPD Obama] Post: August 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 20 “I’m going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one.” President Barack Obama, Johnson Controls, Holland, Michigan, 8/11/2011 Nothing wrong with our country. Something wrong with our politics. Yesterday, in Holland, Michigan, while touring a battery
[More…]
Post: August 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 20
“I’m going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one.”
President Barack Obama, Johnson Controls, Holland, Michigan, 8/11/2011
Nothing wrong with our country. Something wrong with our politics.
Yesterday, in Holland, Michigan, while touring a battery facility, President Obama announced that he would release new proposals for job creation “week by week” to stimulate hiring. “I’m going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one,” Obama said.
Obama also seized the bully pulpit yesterday to chide political leaders for partisan gridlock. “There is nothing wrong with our country. There is something wrong with the politics,” he said.
Whether Americans will be encouraged by Obama’s “job for every American” pledge, most Americans probably agree with his statement, “There is something wrong with the politics.”
In the aftermath of the debt debate, the President and the Congress are seeing their lowest approval ratings. However, August polling shows that the Tea Party and Republicans in Congress are hurting the GOP’s chances at defeating Obama in his race for a second term.
- Pres. Obama’s job approval is an anemic 43.3%, with 50.4% disapproving (a new low)
- Congressional job approval is only 16.8%, with 77% disapproving (a new low)
- A record 20-year low 21% say most in Congress deserve re-election (a new low)
- Overall support for the Tea Party has dipped to 25% (a new low)
- Despite Obama’s low numbers, 41% approve of his jobs policy when compared to the 26% who approve of the jobs policy of the Republicans in Congress.
Investors Political Daily Shows Obama’s Probability of 2012 Win is 48%
Last August, the John Davis Political Report unveiled a new feature Investors Political Daily. A dozen key political and economic trends 
were tracked daily to give readers a sense of how the elections were likely to unfold.
Thanks to tracking by Investors Political Daily, the John Davis Political Report projected the winner in 47 of 47 North Carolina Senate races (3 races were toss ups), and correctly projected the winner in 111 of 115 North Carolina House races (five races were toss ups).
No one called the legislative races earlier or more accurately.
The Investors Political Daily this election cycle features 12 key economic and political variables. They will be update daily where practical (Obama Job Approval) or as soon as the updates are available (Unemployment).
Click here to view PDF of Key Variables for Obama’s Probability of Win in 2012:
- Economic conditions in US … excellent, good, fair, poor
- Obama job approval
- Presidential generic ballot
- National party favorability ratings
- Job creation index
- Generic Congressional ballot
- Independent voters
- Jobs policy approval
- Consumer spending
- National party ID
- Tea Party opinion
- Unemployment
Next Week’s Investors Political Daily:
- Obama’s Probability of Winning NC in 2012
- Perdue’s Probability of Winning NC Governor’s Race
– END –
NEW Premium Monthly Subscription! Due to popular demand, a monthly rate for the $245 half-price Premium Annual Subscription to the John Davis Political Report is now available at $23 per month (cancel at any time).
Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online HERE!
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/004_D_001_John-Davis_110728_006_2011_07_28.mp3|titles=004_D_001_John Davis_110728_006_2011_07_28] Post: July 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 18 “What if I decide instead to spend my last two years doing what I think is right. Veto any bill I don’t like. Go out as a principled fighter and leader, not just another politician. Go out on my own terms, unlike most politicians. Then
[More…]
Post: July 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 18
“What if I decide instead to spend my last two years doing what I think is right. Veto any bill I don’t like. Go out as a principled fighter and leader, not just another politician. Go out on my own terms, unlike most politicians. Then go make a lot of money and enjoy life.”
Imaginary musings of Gov. Perdue as envisioned by Democrat consultant Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, March 3, 2011
This Week’s Veto Overrides Signal the Inevitable Decision for Governor Perdue
With all due respect, if Governor Beverly Perdue cannot stop the veto overrides of the budget and some the most significant pieces of reform legislation in decades … including Regulatory Reform, Medical Malpractice Reform, Medicaid/Health Choice Provider Requirement, and today’s Abortion reform … then she needs to seriously reconsider a run for a second term.
Gary Pearce, one of North Carolina’s most successful Democratic campaign consultants and author of the biography of Jim Hunt, ruminated in his blog in March that Perdue just may be looking at her situation and thinking that if she didn’t run she could do as she pleased, veto any bill she didn’t like, and go out on her own terms. “Then go make a lot of money and enjoy life,” surmised Pearce. He ended his blog with, “That’s not a bad life choice.”
I submit that after a dismal year of ineffective leadership, as judged by chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … as judged by one major legislative failure after another … retiring after this term is her only choice. She is a lame duck.
Should Perdue Run? Numbers Say “No” Despite Record of 10 Wins and “1 Loss”
Governor Beverly Perdue, a Craven County Democrat, is one of the most successful campaigners in North Carolina history. She has won every race “except one,” including two terms in the N.C. House, five terms in the N.C. Senate, two statewide bids for Lt. Governor, and her 2008 race against Treasurer Richard Moore for the Democratic Party nominee for governor.
In 2008, Perdue failed to win the race for governor against GOP nominee Pat McCrory, but was handed the keys to the mansion anyway thanks to historic voter registration and turnout by the Obama campaign for President. Dumb luck. No President Obama; no Governor Perdue.
- Perdue’s relatively weak candidacy when compared to McCrory can be seen in the fact that even after outspending him $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats, she barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America. Dumb luck.
- In a mid-July 2011 poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, only 34% of North Carolinians approved of Perdue’s performance as governor; 49% disapproved.
- PPP poll: “Independents disapproved by a wide margin.” Only 31% of NC’s Independent voters approve of Perdue’s performance as governor; 57% disapprove.
- PPP poll: “Perdue trails McCrory statewide (39% to 47%).”
- PPP poll: “McCrory’s advantage is built on a massive lead among Independents,” (57% to only 28% for Perdue).
Further evidence of a weakened candidacy is the campaign fundraising report filed this week with the NC State Board of Elections. Perdue reported raising $1.3 million, with an outstanding debt to herself and her husband of $776,500 and cash on hand totaling $1.3 million. McCrory reporting raising a little over $1 million, with $940,000 in the bank.
A strong incumbent Governor seeking a second term would have raised considerably more than $1.3 million by now … and certainly should have raised a lot more than the challenger.
Forecast: Obama Wins White House in 2012 Without NC; Perdue Loses.
It’s very important to remember that Obama won North Carolina by only 14,177 votes out of 4.3 million. North Carolina was Obama’s closest win despite a weak Republican opponent and a year-long commitment of millions of dollars to a ground game second to none in state history … as measured by new registrations of African Americans, young voters and a record voter turnout.
The Obama campaign opened 47 headquarters in North Carolina and hired over 400 paid staff. These young professionals were responsible for a record early voting total of 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004), more voters than on Election Day. Seven out of 10 of the early voters were either Democrats (51%) or Unaffiliated (19%). African Americans comprised 28% of early voters, as compared to only 19% in 2004.
Yet despite Obama’s investment yielding hundreds of thousands of new registered Democrats and millions of early voters in 2008, Perdue defeated McCrory by only 145,021 votes out of 4.27 million. It was just dumb luck.
Even if the economy begins to recover, Obama’s job approval numbers return to a safe 50%, and he wins the White House, he is not likely to carry North Carolina. If Obama can’t carry North Carolina, Perdue can’t win the governor’s race; especially as a lame duck.
– END –
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis The
[More…]
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated
North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated
Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps
John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis
The July 4th half-price sale on an annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is being extended for the remainder of July! Now only $245 for a Premium Annual Subscription! Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online here!
Key Political Conclusions
Click here to see the New NC Senate Map Proposed by the NC General Assembly
- UPDATE: 14 of North Carolina’s 100 counties have ½ of the state’s 6.1 million voters. Under the new state Senate maps, half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of those 14 counties. The counties are: Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, Cumberland, Durham, Buncombe, New Hanover, Gaston, Union, Cabarrus, Pitt, Catawba and Iredell.
- UPDATE: The other half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of 86 counties.
- UPDATE: Mecklenburg County has 10% of the 50 Senate districts; Wake another 10%.
- UPDATE: During the past decade, 87 counties had a combined net population growth of 481,376, about the same as Wake and Mecklenburg combined.
- We are witness to the urbanization of political power in North Carolina.
- Under the new Senate districts, the majority party will likely be Republican for the remainder of the decade as there are 34 districts won by US Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race, 29 districts won by State Sen. Robert Pittenger in his 2008 race for lieutenant governor, and 26 districts won by US Sen. Elizabeth Dole in her last race against U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan in 2008.
- The GOP advantage in the number of Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican and the likely first ever Republican fund-raising advantage argue for a long-term Republican Senate majority in North Carolina.
- In 2008, there were 30 Senate districts that gave McCain a 50% or greater win, with 22 districts giving McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
- Under the new maps, there are 34 Senate districts that would have given McCain a 50%-or-greater win, with 27 that would give McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
Surprises & Interesting Notes
- Sen. Phil Berger, a Rockingham County Republican and Senate President Pro Tem, is double-bunked with Sen. Don Vaughan, a Guilford County Democrat. Burger appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (51% to 45% Perdue) and McCain (57% to 43% Obama).
- Sen. Pete Brunstetter, a Forsyth County Republican, is double-bunked with Sen. Linda Garrou, a Forsyth County Democrat. Brunstetter appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (56% to 41% Perdue) and McCain (61% to 39% Obama).
- Sen. Debbie Clary, a Cleveland County Republican, is double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Warren Daniel from Burke County. Clary announced last month her intentions to resign. Her replacement will have to face Sen. Daniel.
- Sen. Jerry Tillman, a Randolph County Republican, has been double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Harris Blake from Moore County. Randolph County will have the advantage in the Republican primary.
- CORRECTED: Only two Senate Democrats were double-bunked: Sen. Ellie Kinnaird (D-Orange) and Sen. Bob Atwater (D-Chatham) reside in the new Senate District 23, including all of Orange and Chatham counties.
Most Vulnerable Incumbents
- The most vulnerable Democrat senators, not counting those who are double bunked with a Republican, are Sen. Doug Berger from Franklin County, Sen. Bill Purcell from Scotland County, and Sen. Stan White from Dare County (Sen. Basnight’s old seat).
- The most vulnerable Republican senator, not counting those who are double bunked, is Sen. Wesley
- Meredith from Cumberland County (Sen. Tony Rand’s old seat).
- There are 9 majority-minority districts where the minority voting age population is 50% or greater. One district, Senate District 13, combines Robeson County and Columbus County to achieve a minority district that includes American Indian, Hispanic and African-Americans.
Legal Limits Established by GOP Stephenson Decision Limit GOP Gerrymandering
Republicans achieved one of the greatest political coups in North Carolina politics in 2003 by successfully litigating the radically gerrymandered maps drawn by the Democratic legislative majority following the 2000 census.
The Stephenson v. Bartlett decision by the North Carolina Supreme Court established new requirements for legislative redistricting in North Carolina that, ironically, now limit the ability of Republicans to do to Democrats what they have done to Republicans for many decades: radical partisan gerrymandering.
In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were 6 swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.
Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and rulings in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case, the courts in 2003 leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and 4 were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.
This year, the Stephenson case has forced Republicans to comply with the following:
Voting Rights Act districts must be drawn first to ensure compliance with federal law.
- Population deviations must be within plus-or-minus 5% of the ideal district population.
- Creating districts within counties (urban counties) or by combining whole counties is required until it is no longer possible to create a district without using a part of a county.
- Example: Wake County now has 5 senate districts, 4 within the county and one in combination with all of Franklin County. Mecklenburg County has 5 districts, all within the county lines.
Before the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina looked more like a 1000-piece puzzle. After the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina look more like a state map of the counties. See the Legislative Guide to Redistricting for all law relating to remapping.
Sophisticated Mapping Technology Allows Long-range Maps
As with the congressional maps released two weeks ago, the changes in the new Senate maps are as politically significant as they are subtle, illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.
Adding to the likelihood that Republicans will keep the Senate majority for the remainder of the decade is the fact that today’s remapping technology allows districts to be drawn with population growth projections.
– END –
Knowing early how campaigns are likely to end takes the uncertainty out of politics, thereby saving you a lot of your time and your money. That’s what the John Davis Political Report is all about.
The ½ price July 4th sale will continue throughout the month. If you are not a subscriber, Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form, or subscribe online to the John Davis Political Report at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
Need a speaker on redistricting? Contact me at www.johndavisconsulting.com/speaker-info
Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Look for the “Donate” button at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
“Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.” John Davis Political Report Post July 6, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Revised/Updated North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre
[More…]
“Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.” John Davis Political Report
Post July 6, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Revised/Updated
North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre has Fighting Chance
John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive Analysis
Last Friday, subscribers to the John Davis Political Report were the first in North Carolina to receive a comprehensive analysis of the new congressional districts proposed by the legislative reapportionment committees. Today, I am sending a Revised/Updated edition of that report. Information presented in bold italics has been added. There are new links with each district analysis that provides hundreds of facts about each of the proposed new districts. Check them out!
The July 4th half-price sale on an annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is being extended for the remainder of July! Now only $245 for a Premium Annual Subscription! Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online here!
Key Conclusions:
- Under the new congressional districts, the partisan advantage will shift from 7 Democratic and 6 Republican to 8 Republican and only 3 guaranteed Democratic districts, with 2 that will depend on the strengths of the candidates and the prevailing partisan winds of the given election year.
- President Obama carried 8 NC congressional districts and Sen. McCain 5 in 2008. Under the 13 new districts, Obama would only carry 3 (Butterfield, Price and Watt).
- Only 4 of the current districts gave McCain a 55%-or-greater vote in 2008 (Jones, Foxx, Myrick and McHenry). There are now 10 districts that would have voted for McCain for president at 55% or greater (all but Butterfield, Price and Watt). The same 10 districts would give US Sen. Burr a 60%-or-greater victory.
- Gov. Perdue carried 9 of the 13 congressional districts in 2008, all but one greater than 50%. Under the new districts, Perdue would carry 5 (Butterfield, Jones, Price, McIntyre and Watt).
- GOP gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory only carried 4 congressional districts in 2008 (Foxx, Coble, Myrick and McHenry). If the election were held under the new congressional districts, he would add Elmers, Kissell, Shuler and Miller to his wins.
Key District-by-District Conclusions
- U.S. House District 1, currently held by Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a majority-minority district where Democrats have a 68% registration advantage over the meager 16% Republican registration. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 2, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Renee Elmers, has become a significantly more Republican-friendly district. This district was held throughout the last decade by Democratic Congressman Bob Etheridge. The new district has 39% Democratic registration and 36% Republican registration, a 3% Democratic advantage. However, under the old map, Democrats enjoyed a 23% advantage with 51% registered Democrats to only 28% registered Republicans. Elmers squeaked out a win in Republican friendly 2010. She will still have to work hard to hold this seat, but the new map gives her an advantage at the starting line.
Key County Changes: Harnett County, home to both Elmers and Etheridge, is now split into three congressional districts (Price, Elmers and Coble), with about half remaining in the new congressional district. Elmers now has all of Sampson County and keeps all of Johnston County, both reliably Republican counties. This district no longer has any of the Franklin County and Nash County precincts, making it a stronger Republican opportunity district. New territory includes precincts in Wake, Cumberland and Wayne. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 3, currently held by Republican Congressman Walter Jones, will likely always elect Jones as long as he runs. Jones and his father have held this district for over four decades. However, this district is now a swing district that could be won by a strong conservative Democrat once Jones retires. Remember, there are lots of eastern North Carolina “Reagan Democrats” in this district. Democratic registration increases considerably under the new maps from 41% to 49%; Republicans lose market share from 35% to 30%. McCain would still beat Obama in this district by about 56% to 44%. However, Perdue would defeat McCrory under the new maps by 55% to 44%, whereas she beat McCrory in this congressional district in 2008 by 49% to 48.4%.
Key County Changes: Onslow County and almost all of Carteret County, both Republican friendly, have been moved from Jones’ district to McIntyre’s district. Major counties: District 3 has all of Duplin, Jones, Dare, Beaufort and Craven Counties, and substantial parts of Pitt, Nash and Lenoir. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 4, currently held by Democratic Congressman David Price, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a solid Democratic district where Democrats now have a 35% registration advantage over Republicans (54% Democrats to 19% Republicans, with 27% Unaffiliated).
Key County Changes: Conservative “Reagan Democrats” precincts in northern Orange and northern Durham with a history of voting Republican in federal races have been taken out of Price’s district and moved to Miller’s district. That’s good for Price, a Democrat, and bad for Miller, a Democrat. Precincts in southern Wake County with a history of voting Republican in federal elections have been taken out of Price’s district and put into Republican Renee Elmers’ district, a move that helps both camps. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 5, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, has a bit fewer Republicans and more Democrats but Republicans still outnumber the loyal opposition and will continue find this district a safe harbor for GOP candidates.
Key County Changes: Although Foxx loses Surry and Stokes counties to Miller, she keeps some of the most Republican districts in the state. Wilkes, Yadkin and Davie counties are 3 of the only 6 counties that voted for Herbert Hoover in 1932! GOP precincts in Rockingham and Forsyth counties have been taken out and put into Miller’s district. Not good for Miller. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 6, currently held by Republican Congressman Howard Coble, has fewer Republicans and more Democrats but would still choose McCain over Obama by 55% to 44%, whereas under the old configuration McCain defeated Obama by a much wider margin, 63% to 36% (Statewide: Obama 49.7%; McCain 49.4%).
Key County Changes: Coble looses his share of Davidson and Rowan, keeps all of Moore County and much of what he had in Randolph, Guilford and Alamance Counties. He picks up most of Chatham County, almost all of Lee, and portions of Harnett and Cumberland. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 7, currently held by Democratic Congressman Mike McIntyre, has 9% fewer Democrats but still gives McIntyre a fighting chance. Although McCain defeated Obama here under the old map by 5%, McCain would defeat Obama here under the new maps by 55% to 44%. On the other hand, Perdue would still beat Republican gubernatorial candidate McCrory here by 6 points, but not nearly as bad as the 11 point shellacking she gave him here in 2008. McIntyre maintains a fighting chance.
Key County Changes: Onslow County and almost all of Carteret County (94%), both Republican friendly, have been moved from Jones’ district to McIntyre’s district. Major counties: District 7 has all of Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Onslow and Pender. Democratic-friendly parts of Cumberland, Duplin and Robeson counties have been taken out of this district. McIntyre still has a fighting chance here, but not much more than a fighting chance. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 8, currently held by Democratic Congressman Larry Kissell, has been reconfigured in such a way that Kissell can no longer win. This district was held by GOP Congressman Hayes for most of the decade. It now has more registered Republicans and fewer Democrats and a shifted from a 52% Obama district to a 44% Obama district. Likewise, it has shifted from a 47% McCrory district to a 53% McCrory district. Gov. Perdue carried this district by 51% in one of the best years for voter registration and turnout of Democrats in modern political history. In the absence of the extraordinary advantage that Democrats enjoyed as a result of the historic campaign of President Obama, this now becomes a very difficult district for them to hold.
Key County Changes: Parts of three strong Republican counties, Randolph, Davidson and Rowan, have been added to House District 8, strengthening the prospects of Republicans regaining their seat once held by GOP Congressman Hayes. Several reliably Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County have been moved into Congressman Mel Watt’s U.S. House District 12, taking “about 37,000 African Americans away from Kissell,” reports the News & Observer/Charlotte Observer. Mecklenburg County had 17% of the district under the old map; only 5.5% under the new map. Cumberland County had 20% of the old district; none of the new district. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 9, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Myrick, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a GOP stronghold where Republican gubernatorial nominee McCrory, former mayor of Charlotte, won the district with 65% of the vote and would win again with 67% of the vote as it is newly configured.
Key County Changes: Myrick lost friendly precincts in Gaston County to Congressman McHenry. However, that loss is offset by a gain of GOP precincts in northern Mecklenburg County (Town of Davidson), southern Iredell County, and new precincts in northeastern Union County . Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 10, currently held by Republican Congressman Patrick McHenry, has about 5% fewer Republicans but continues as a GOP stronghold. President Obama would still lose to McCain here by 57% to 42% and Perdue would still lose to McCrory here by about that same margin.
Key County Changes: McHenry picks up all of Gaston County, his home county and solid Republican territory. He loses GOP strongholds Mitchell, Avery and Caldwell, as well as and Burke County, to Shuler’s district. McHenry picks up all of Polk County and the eastern side of Buncombe County, including Asheville. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 11, currently held by Democratic Congressman Heath Shuler, has now become a safe harbor for Republicans. The anchor for Democrats in this district has always been Buncombe County, particularly Asheville. Not only has half of Buncombe County, including Asheville, been put into Congressman McHenry’s safe Republican district, but several of the most Republican counties in the state have been moved from districts held by Congresswoman Foxx and Congressman McHenry to Heath Shuler’s district. Keep in mind, this district was held by Republican Congressman Charles Taylor for 12 years. It was already a leaning Republican district. Shuler, an exceptionally strong and attractive candidate, has been able to hang onto the seat because he is a great candidate and he votes like a Republican.
Key County Changes: Shular picks up Mitchell, Caldwell, Burke and Avery Counties. All but Burke County are reliably Republican counties. Avery and Mitchell counties are 2 of the 6 counties that voted for Herbert Hoover against Roosevelt in 1932. Now that’s Republican! He loses the eastern half of Buncombe County, including Asheville, and all of Polk County. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 12, currently held by Democratic Congressman Mel Watt, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a majority-minority district where Democrats have a 64% registration advantage over the meager 16% Republican registration. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 13 is currently held by Democratic Congressman Brad Miller. As expected, North Carolina Congressman Miller has been drawn into a district he cannot win. Turnabout is fair play. When he chaired the NC Senate reapportionment committee 10 years ago, he drew himself a congressional district he could not lose. Now he’s in a district he cannot win. Registered Democrats plummeted from 51% to 41% and Republicans increased their ranks from 26% to 37%. Under the current district, Obama received 59% to only 40% for McCain. Under the new map, McCain would beat Obama by 56% to 44%. Amazing! Perdue’s market share plummets under the new map from 57% to 45% while McCrory’s market share increases from 39% to 52%.
Key County Changes: Stokes and Surry counties, both reliably Republican in national elections, have been added to Miller’s district. Reliably Democratic precincts in Guilford County have been removed. Conservative “Reagan Democrats” precincts in northern Alamance, northern Orange and northern Durham counties have been added. Republican precincts in western Guilford County and eastern Forsyth County stay. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
Surprises & Interesting Notes:
- All 13 incumbents still reside in their new districts (no double bunking).
- There is no third majority-minority district as many had speculated.
- Despite the Republican-friendly change in the rematch in of the congressional districts, one Democrat, North Carolina Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper, would still carry all of them.
- The basis of the new map is the old map. At a glance, they look very similar.
- The changes in the maps are as politically significant as they are subtle; illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.
- Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.
Knowing early how campaigns are likely to end takes the uncertainty out of politics, thereby saving you a lot of your time and your money. That’s what the John Davis Political Report is all about.
– END –
The ½ price July 4th sale will continue throughout the month. If you are not a subscriber, Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form, or subscribe online to the John Davis Political Report at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
Need a speaker on redistricting? Contact me at www.johndavisconsulting.com/speaker-info
Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Look for the “Donate” button at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
[[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/How-Far-Right-Can-GOP-Push-NC.mp3|titles=How Far Right Can GOP Push NC]] “Originally, blowback was CIA internal coinage denoting the unintended, harmful consequences – to friendly populations and military forces – when a given weapon is carelessly used.” en.wikipedia.org Search: blowback Post June 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 13 Blowback: Unintended, Harmful Consequences This report is an
[More…]
[[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/How-Far-Right-Can-GOP-Push-NC.mp3|titles=How Far Right Can GOP Push NC]]
“Originally, blowback was CIA internal coinage denoting the unintended, harmful consequences – to friendly populations and military forces – when a given weapon is carelessly used.” en.wikipedia.org Search: blowback
Post June 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 13
Blowback: Unintended, Harmful Consequences
This report is an analysis of the long-term political implications of the just-ended historic session of the North Carolina General Assembly. Although the implications apply to both parties, the primary focus is the evaluation of the legislative actions taken by the Republican majority.
First, my sincerest congratulations to the first GOP majority in the NC General Assembly since 1870 on their many good successes. You do not have to be a Republican to appreciate the inherent value of giving the leadership reins to new faces and seeing them try new ideas on intractable problems.
However, the long-term political prospects for Republicans are dependant on whether those ideas work. They are also dependent on whether Republicans try to push North Carolinians too far to the right.
Political power is like a weapon that if carelessly used will cause unintended, harmful consequences … blowback. Barack Obama and the Democratic Party found that out in 2010.
Three Secrets for a Long-term Republican Majority
Republicans won the opportunity to lead the state by staying focused on jobs and the economy during the 2010 campaigns at a time of great economic crisis. They also won the opportunity to lead the state because the voters lost confidence in the Democrats and there were no other choices on the ballot.
Most voters could care less what the party affiliation is of the team that restores financial health and fiscal sanity to our nation and state. Likewise, most voters could care less what the ideological label is pinned to the solution to turning around our dreadful unemployment numbers.
Secret #1: Lead from the Center
North Carolinians did not have a partisan conversion experience in 2010. This is not a Republican state. This is not a Democratic state. This is a center-right battleground state where no political party has a majority and where independent moderates decide the outcome of all statewide races.
Take a look at the Gallup study of the party affiliation shift away from Democrats in the states from 2008 to 2010. North Carolina is among the states with the least change in party affiliation.
Gallup 2/21/2011: Number of Solidly Democratic States Cut in Half From ’08 to ‘10
North Carolina is among the states with the least change in party affiliation.
- In February, Gallup released a study of party affiliation in the states showing that Democrats lost ground in every single state and the District of Columbia from 2008 to 2010.
- The greatest losses were in states like Rhode Island (-12.2%), New Hampshire (-11.3%), Maine (-10.9%) and Hawaii (-10.1%).
- North Carolina, with a -4.0% loss for Democrats, was among the states with the least change.
- As to rank, 43 states showed greater losses for Democrats than North Carolina.
- According to Gallup, North Carolina is a “Lean Democratic” state.
The voters who elected Barack Obama still live here.
Secret #2: Own education.
Barack Obama made a big mistake by pushing his personal agenda ahead of the priorities of a majority of the voters in the country. He wanted healthcare. They wanted jobs. It cost him and his party the majority in Congress and in many state legislatures including ours.
The priorities of the people who have denied the GOP a majority in the General Assembly for 140 years have not changed. Granted, right now their number one priority is jobs and the economy. However, despite the economic crisis, education remains a close second.
Republicans must own education.
The May poll results from Civitas show education as more important to North Carolinians than all items tested except jobs and the economy.
Civitas Institute 5/10-11/2011: May Poll Results – North Carolina Statewide Voter Survey
Education ranks #2 as the most important issue.
- Civitas poll question: “For each issue, tell me on a scale of 1 to 10 how important that issue is in terms of how you will vote in the next North Carolina legislative election.”
- Education was ranked #2 as the most important issue in terms of how voters will vote in the next North Carolina legislative elections, second only to “economy and jobs.”
- Click on the link above and go to questions 10 through 16 and you will see that “education” was seen as more important in deciding how to vote next year than “government spending, government ethics and corruption, taxes, immigration, and roads/highways.”
Secret #3: Compassionate conservatism.
Newt Gingrich and the congressional Republicans lost the majority after the last great Republican revolution because they were perceived as lacking in compassion. That’s why I believe that the biggest mistake made by Republicans during their first turn at the helm was using unemployment benefits as a trump card in their budget battle with the governor.
Hard-line conservatism will get you in political hot water in the new North Carolina.
Take a look at a Gallup study below and compare the liberal, moderate and conservative leanings of voters in the different states based on 350,000 responses to polling during 2010.
Gallup 2/25/2011: Mississippi Rates as the Most Conservative U.S. State
North Carolina, Virginia and Florida are the least conservative Southern states.
- In February, Gallup released a study of political ideology in the states showing that conservatives outnumber liberals in every U.S. state.
- Only the District of Columbia has more liberals than conservatives.
- The top 10 most conservative states are Mississippi, Idaho, Alabama, Wyoming, Utah, South Dakota, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Carolina and Arkansas.
- The top 10 most liberal states are District of Columbia, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Oregon, Colorado, Washington and New Jersey.
- North Carolina, Virginia and Florida are the least conservative Southern states and the only states in the South carried by President Barack Obama.
- As to rank, 21 states are more conservative than North Carolina.
NC statewide polls by Civitas Institute 5/10-11/2011 May Poll Results – North Carolina Statewide Voter Survey and by Public Policy Polling 6/8-11/2011 June Poll Results – North Carolina Statewide Voter Survey showed the same percentage of conservatives: PPP 44%; Civitas 43%.
Compassionate conservatism shows strength of character and is appreciated by most voters. Maybe the perceived lack of compassion for the unemployed is why the same PPP poll shows significantly greater unfavorable voter opinion of Republicans (46%) than favorable (33%). After all, voters supported extending unemployment benefits by 2-to-1 (60% support; 29% oppose).
So, how far right can North Carolina Republicans push their conservative legislative agenda without creating a political blowback? Not that far in North Carolina. It’s not a conservative Republican state.
– END –
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here. July 4th 1/2 Price Sale! Only $245 for Premium Annual Subscription!
Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Scroll down for the “Donate” button in the right sidebar on the home page.
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/JDPR-5-26-11-Legal-Mischief1.mp3|titles=JDPR 5 26 11 Legal Mischief] Note: This report is based on research done in preparation for presentations last week to the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Dept. at the Norman A. Wiggins School of Law, Campbell University, Raleigh, and a presentation to the NC Dental Society’s Political Action Committee at their Annual Meeting in
[More…]
Note: This report is based on research done in preparation for presentations last week to the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Dept. at the Norman A. Wiggins School of Law, Campbell University, Raleigh, and a presentation to the NC Dental Society’s Political Action Committee at their Annual Meeting in Myrtle Beach. If you are interested in a presentation on the political implications of redistricting for 2012 politics, click here.
Most Fun You Can Legally Have
Mercedes Benz has an ad on TV claiming that driving one of their “C Class” cars is the most fun you can legally have. Wrong. Drawing your political party an advantage over a $20 billion budget for the next 10 years while disrupting the opposition without getting indicted … now that’s the most fun you can legally have.
You can’t govern if you don’t win a majority of the legislative seats. One of the best ways to stack the deck in your favor is to draw a majority of seats predisposed to choosing your candidates. But only the party in the majority after each census can claim the drawing tools. In 2011, it’s the Republicans.
Miller’s Millstone: Rucho’s Right of Retributive Justice
US Congressman Brad Miller, D-Wake, is serving his last term whether he has accepted his fate or not. Why? He “double-bunked” the Chairman of the NC Senate Redistricting Committee 10 years ago.
No one understands the devastating political consequences of redistricting better than someone who got “double-bunked” by the majority party mapmakers. Double-bunking occurs when two incumbents from the same party are drawn into the same district. If you are double-bunked you have two choices: run against each other in a brutal and expensive primary, or someone has to agree to go home.
That’s what happened 10 years ago … to none other than Sen. Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg, the current Chairman of the Senate Redistricting Committee. Who served as Chairman of NC Senate Redistricting Committee 10 years ago? None other than US Congressman Brad Miller.
Then-state Senator Brad Miller put GOP Senators Robert Pittenger and Bob Rucho, both from Mecklenburg County, in the same district. Rucho decided to bow out rather than risk a fortune trying to beat one of the wealthiest members of the state Senate in a primary race in an expensive media market.
Sen. Rucho went home and practiced dentistry for most of the decade. Then-Sen. Brad Miller drew himself a safe Democratic U.S. House seat (connects Raleigh and Greensboro by way of the Virginia border counties) and spent the remainder of the decade as a member of the United States Congress.
In 2008, Sen. Pittenger resigned. Bob Rucho was appointed to fill his unexpired term. In 2010, the GOP won a 31-19 majority in the NC Senate. Now, low and behold, look who is chairing the NC Senate Redistricting Committee!!! None other than Sen. Bob Rucho.
Miller is history.
A couple of other Democrats in the congressional delegation also need to be pricing moving companies for the big haul back to their respective hometowns. According to press accounts: Mike McIntire, D-Robeson and Larry Kissell, D-Montgomery are the #2 and #3 GOP targets after Miller, followed by Heath Shuler, D-Swain. We will find out who has a target on their backs in a couple of weeks.
Remedy for Overindulging at the Smorgasbord of Legal Mischief
The modern era of remapping congressional and legislative districts typically begins with the majority party overindulging at the smorgasbord of partisan mischief, only to have the minority party lawyers file suits against the maps … suits that receive an unfavorable ruling by majority party judges but are eventually reversed and remanded by the minority party appellate courts and ultimately appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court which hands down a 5-4 decision going one way or the other depending on which party was in the White House at the time of the most recent retirement of a justice. Or, so it seems.
In June, the new Republican versions of congressional and state legislative maps will be unveiled. This much you can count on: Step 1: Republicans will draw themselves a political advantage. Step 2: the state or federal courts or the Obama Justice Department will take much of that advantage away.
In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were six swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.
Republicans sued. Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and a dozen rulings, the courts leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and four were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.
Maps Give You a Head Start; Money Wins the Race
Democrats made up for their losses in the courts by parlaying their political power into a fundraising advantage, outspending Republicans 3-to-1 in legislative races for the remainder of the decade, thereby reestablishing their dominance. Maps give you a head start. Money wins the race.
Republicans were never able to build on the good success of their redistricting litigation, even in GOP-friendly years, because of their inability to raise a competitive war chest.
The financial disparity changed in 2010, primarily because the Democratic leadership imploded under the strain of the worst recession since the Great Depression, high legislative and party leadership turnover, political scandal, and a President who could no longer inspire turnout. While Democrats floundered, Republicans united behind a strong team of political leadership and attained unprecedented fundraising success … and unprecedented political success with the takeover of the General Assembly.
In 2008, NC Senate Democrats raised $9.7 million, doubling the $4.1 million raised by NC Senate Republicans. In 2010, NC Senate Democrats raised only $8.8 million, down 9.1%, while NC Senate Republicans achieved an unprecedented 93.1% increase over 2008 with $7.9 million.
In 2008, NC House Democrats raised $9.7 million, tripling the $3.4 million raised by NC House Republicans. In 2010, NC House Democrats raised $9.7 million again, while NC House Republicans doubled their 2008 total with $6.8 million, a 102% increase.
The odds of another election year during which everything goes wrong for the Democrats while the GOP is doing everything right are slim to none. Maps give you a head start. Money wins the race.
Past Legal Mischief Foretells the Legal Mischief Coming in June
Last Thursday, I served on a panel on redistricting sponsored by the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Department. Panelists included Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, Chmn. of the NC House Redistricting Committee, Sen. Dan Blue, D-Wake, former Chmn. of the NC House Redistricting Committee, and Rep. Leo Daughtry, R-Johnston, a member of the NC House Redistricting Committee.
Rep. Daughtry reminded us that he was a state senator prior to the 1990 redistricting, when he was mapped out of his home territory and forced to run for the House. Daughtry also reminded us that in 2000 he and GOP House member Billy Creech were “double bunked” into the same district. Creech retired.
NC Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, R-Watauga was state Sen. Virginia Foxx 10 years ago when she was double-bunked with Sen. John Garwood, R-Wilkes. Foxx chose to run for US Congress instead. NC Congressman Patrick McHenry, R-Gaston was state Rep. Patrick McHenry 10 years ago when he was double-bunked with Rep. John Rayfield, R-Gaston. He chose to run for US Congress.
This is what you can expect in a couple of weeks, except that it will be the Democrats who will suffer at the hands of Republican map makers. And it will all be legal … legal mischief nonetheless, and the most fun you can legally have!
Remember, Democrats set the standard of fairness for redistricting congressional and legislative districts in North Carolina, and you can count on Republicans to lower themselves to that same standard.
– END –
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Scroll down for the “Donate” button in the right sidebar on the home page.
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Jack-Betts-Blog-Apr-26-2011.mp3|titles=Jack Betts Blog Apr 26 2011] “Republicans must think long term if they want to govern long term.” Note: I received an email last Friday from Jack Betts, an associate editor and senior political writer with the Charlotte Observer, with the question, “What would have to happen for Republicans to lose their advantage in the
[More…]
| [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Jack-Betts-Blog-Apr-26-2011.mp3|titles=Jack Betts Blog Apr 26 2011] |
“Republicans must think long term if they want to govern long term.”
Note: I received an email last Friday from Jack Betts, an associate editor and senior political writer with the Charlotte Observer, with the question, “What would have to happen for Republicans to lose their advantage in the N.C. General Assembly to Democrats in the next election?” My reply appeared in Betts’ blog, This Old State. Here is the blog in its entirety:
I asked John Davis, a Raleigh political consultant and editor of the John Davis Political Report, what would have to happen for Republicans to lose their advantage in the N.C. General Assembly to Democrats in the next election. Like me, John doesn’t see that happening, but he also sees that it could happen if the GOP squanders its standing with voters. That’s the best hope Democrats have for the next elections, he says, though a lot depends on who raises big money. He also thinks Republicans will take the U.S. Senate in 2012 as well, and Pat McCrory may win the governorship.
Here’s what he had to say:
Republicans could fritter away their advantage with one of their classic internal feuds between disgruntled conservatives who demand instant gratification and party pragmatists with a long term view. It’s a delicate balance.
On one hand, if the leadership does not handle the conservatives carefully, it could rekindle the Tea Party, leading to costly primaries and a divided base. On the other hand, if the leaders go out of their way to appease conservatives as a preemptive tactic to keep them in the fold, then they risk the loss of independent voters … especially urban moderates.
Very delicate.
Republicans must think long term if they want to govern long term.
The other thing to look for is the money. Democrats raided GOP territory for years because they had the extra money to compete for and win Republican districts like those held at one time by Democratic Senators Snow, Queen, Goss, Foriest, Boseman, Hoyle and Soles. In other words, the money mattered more than the way the districts were drawn.
The big question mark flashing in my mind is the money. Can Democrats go back to the same well that has been their bottomless source of campaign financing for decades and get enough money to be competitive in the swing districts? A lot of that will be determined by Obama and whether his campaign will target NC for another win in the fall of 2012.
If Obama raises his $1 billion goal, he will likely reinvest in NC … HQs and paid staff to manage thousands of vols who are seasoned at registering and turning out their voters. If that begins to unfold next Summer, then the political investment community will hedge their bets, thereby giving Dems a fighting chance.
My sense is that the eco is breaking favorably for the establishment and that the likely outcome is a status quo year. Obama wins easily, the US House tightens back up and the Rs take the US Senate just because of the way the deck is stacked in 2012 in their favor.
The Rs may take the NC Gov mansion because Perdue is not a strong candidate. Watch her fund-raising closely. The Rs are likely to hold both chambers in NC … unless they blow their opportunity as they have many times in the past.
Bottom line: The best hope for Perdue and the Democrats is Republicans.
– END –
Posted by Jack Betts at 8:58 AM
Read more: http://jackbetts.blogspot.com/2011/04/analyst-dems-best-hope-is-repubs.html#ixzz1KeheAZU0
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/April-21-Marc-Basnights-Best-Friend.mp3|titles=April 21 Marc Basnight’s Best Friend] “If you see him, tell him I said to ‘take it easy.’ But he doesn’t know how to do that.” Hubert Poole, former NC Senate Sergeant at Arms, speaking about Sen. Marc Basnight Note: In light of the tornado disaster, with flags flying at half-mast in honor of those
[More…]
| [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/April-21-Marc-Basnights-Best-Friend.mp3|titles=April 21 Marc Basnight’s Best Friend] |
“If you see him, tell him I said to ‘take it easy.’ But he doesn’t know how to do that.”
Hubert Poole, former NC Senate Sergeant at Arms, speaking about Sen. Marc Basnight
Note: In light of the tornado disaster, with flags flying at half-mast in honor of those who lost their lives in North Carolina, I thought it more appropriate to write about something other than politics. This is about a happenstance talk with Marc Basnight’s best friend yesterday while cleaning up storm debris.
Early Response Team
A couple months back, my wife and I decided to sign up for an Early Response Team training program sponsored through our church by the Office of Emergency Services of the United Methodist Committee on Relief. Little did we know how soon our training would be needed.
When the devastating news began to be reported about the extent of destruction and loss of life caused by tornadoes here in North Carolina last Saturday, we knew that the phone call or e-mail would be coming soon. After all, five thousand homes were damaged here in Wake County.
Early Response Team training focuses on mitigating the damage to homes caused by natural disasters. One of the most common tasks is getting trees off houses and covering gaping holes in roofs with tarps to keep the rain from causing further damage.
On Monday, the expected email arrived. The Early Response Team at Hayes Barton United Methodist Church was needed on Wednesday to help get trees off the houses of elderly homeowners … including the home of the parents of Bettye Poole, a member of our Sunday School class.
The center on Shaw University’s 1947 CIAA Championship team
On Wednesday morning, I joined the group of 10 volunteers in front of the church. We were briefed about the tree removal work that we would be doing in the Madonna Acres neighborhood near St. Augustine’s College. We were assigned 8 homes, and would begin with Bettye Poole’s parents.
It was surreal to drive through Raleigh’s beautifully groomed neighborhoods and then turn right on Delany Drive and see total destruction. Trees were down everywhere. Not a house was spared. The utility crews were already there replacing downed power lines.
Within minutes the roar of chainsaws signaled that the work had begun. No one had to be assigned a task. Everyone just began to cut and drag limbs to the street.
After several hours of removing debris, I decided to take a break. I noticed that Betty Poole’s 85-year-old father was sitting on the porch watching us work. I went over and introduced myself. Thus began one of those memorable conversations that life treats us to once in a blue moon.
Turns out that Hubert Poole, a Marine during WWII, had been the center on Shaw University’s 1947 CIAA Championship basketball team. He had also been a teacher and coach at Ligon High School here in Raleigh when it was an all-black school during segregation. I told him about my first job as a seventh grade English teacher at an all-black school in Marion County, Mississippi … two years prior to integration.
We traded stories about the awkward and sometimes hostile experiences of public school integration.
In Mississippi, public schools were integrated in January 1970. It had been 16 years since the US Supreme Court rendered segregated schools unconstitutional in the 1954 Brown vs Board of Education decision. Since that time, the priority of the white only administrators in Marion County had been avoiding integration. No attempt had been made to develop an orderly process for matters like assigning teachers to schools … and classes to teachers.
Assigning teachers to schools by drawing names out of a box
In December before integration was to begin, teachers were notified by the administration to assemble in a gymnasium for the purpose of assigning teachers to schools. Upon arrival, we were shocked to learn that our assigned schools would be chosen by drawing names out of a box. Each principal would draw names of teachers until the number of teachers to be assigned to that school was reached. No consideration was given to matters like the subject we were trained to teach.
We were assured that the assignment would be temporary, only from January until the end of the school year in May. That would give the county school officials time to come up with a more suitable means of assigning teachers to schools. We all sat silently. No one dared say anything. That’s how awkward the racial atmosphere was during the early days of integration.
I will never forget the introduction of the principals by the white Marion County School Superintendent at the meeting in the gymnasium. He introduced the white principals as “Mr. Smith” or “Mr. Jones,” and introduced the black principals by their first names only … “James,” or “William.” Looking back, I shake my head at the thought that he didn’t realize the extent of his disrespect. Little had changed since the days when slave owners listed their slaves by first name only along with other inventory when their estates were settled: “1 Negro boy, James, age 45” “1 Negro boy, William, age 53.”
My name was drawn by “Mr.” Mabry, principal at the all white Bunker Hill School on the all white side of the county. Bunker Hill School was a long, ranch style wooden building, with two wings of classrooms, four on each wing, separated by the library, lunch room and the principal’s office. Bunker Hill School was first grade through eighth grade. There was no kindergarten.
The black and white teachers “assigned” to Bunker Hill met with Mr. Mabry a couple of days before school was to begin to discuss class assignments. He began by saying that under the circumstances, the only way he knew to make class assignments fairly was for teachers to select their classes in the order of seniority. He had written the names of the subjects to be taught on the blackboard. The older teachers went first, getting to chose subjects and the grade level with which they had training and experience.
I was the youngest teacher, and the last to choose. There was nothing left to choose. I was stuck with 7th grade Science, 8th grade American History, 6th grade Boys Physical Education, and two Study Halls. Remember, I had been a 7th grade English teacher. Irrelevant.
As I entered the building on the first day of school, I had to run the gauntlet of angry white parents loitering on both sides of the hallway. “He’s one of the nigger teachers,” I heard someone say.
Marc Basnight’s best friend
All of these experiences came back as I sat on the front porch with Hubert Poole yesterday listening to him talk about integration here in Raleigh; about pickup trucks with gun racks and hostile students.
After retiring from a life-long teaching career, Hubert Poole became Sergeant at Arms in the North Carolina Senate. Over two decades, he became a respected and beloved member of the Senate family.
“I started in the Senate at about the same time as Marc Basnight,” he told me, adding, “I’m Marc Basnight’s best friend.”
Poole went on to tell me about the kindnesses extended to him by Senators over the years, Democrats and Republicans, and how he knew what they were going to say on the floor before they said it. I could have talked with Mr. Poole all afternoon, but it was time to get back to work.
As I was walked down the porch steps he said, “If you see Marc Basnight, tell him I said to take it easy.” I knew just how well he knew Basnight when he added, “But he doesn’t know how to do that.”
Out of the devastation of a tornado, a conversation by happenstance took place yesterday with someone who had lived through the devastation of Jim Crow laws. I am so pleased that as a member of the Early Response Team at Hayes Barton United Methodist Church I had the opportunity to help Hubert Poole mitigate the tornado damage to his property. After all, he devoted his life to mitigating the damage of a segregated school system here in Wake County.
Hubert Poole was a member of segregation’s Early Response Team.
– END –
Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations. Call me if you are interested and I will come visit with you: 919-696-3859.
Sincerely,
John N. Davis, John Davis Political Report