Transformative Generational Wave on Political Horizon

March 22, 2018         Vol. XI, No. 5         3:13 pm

More Independent than Partisan

Yes, a political wave is looming on the horizon. But it’s more generational than partisan. If it has a color, it’s more an independent purple than a Democratic blue. A big, purple wave that is certain to crash ashore and wash away aging, inflexible leaders in both parties. But when?

According to a study of North Carolina registered voters conducted by Dr. Michael Bitzer, Professor of Politics and History at Catawba College, as of Monday, February 5, 2018, Millennials (Born 1981-1997) and Generation Z (Born 1998 and after) are now 32% of the state’s 6.8 million registered voters, surpassing Baby Boomers as the state’s largest cohort on the voter rolls.

• Millennials/Generation Z (Born since 1981): 32% of NC registered voters
• Baby Boomers (1945-1965): 31% of NC registered voters
• Generation X (1966-1980) are 27% of NC registered voters
• Greatest/Silent Generation (Before 1945): 10% of NC registered voters

Millennials have a far more independent streak than older generations, contributing to the growth of Unaffiliated voters, who now outnumber Republicans for the first time in state history.

• Baby Boomers: Democrat (42%), Republican (34%), Unaffiliated 24%
• Millennials: Unaffiliated (40%), Democrat (35%), Republican (24%)

As to race and ethnicity, per Dr. Bitzer’s 2017 year-end analysis, Baby Boomers are White (74%), Black (20%), Other (6%), while Millennials are White (61%), Black (25%), Other (13%, primarily Hispanic and Asian voters).

Looking only at White Baby Boomers, 44% are registered as Republican, 30% are registered as Democrats and 26% are registered as Unaffiliated. Looking only at White Millennials, 44% are registered Unaffiliated, 36% are registered as Republican and 19% are registered as Democrat.

Looking only at African-American Baby Boomers, 89% are Democratic and 9% Unaffiliated. Conversely, African-American Millennials are 74% Democratic and 23% Unaffiliated (3% GOP).

Other key findings by Dr. Bitzer include the fact that about 8-in-10 of the youngest generations of North Carolina voters live in urban or suburban counties.

• Baby Boomers by County: Urban (50%), Suburban (23%), Rural (26%)
• Millennials by County: Urban (61%), Suburban (18%), Rural (21%)

Studies have consistently shown that urban voters are overwhelmingly more likely to favor Democrats over Republicans, whereas suburban voters are split and rural voters predictably Republican.

Most Independent, Diverse and Educated Generation

As to how North Carolina voter registration trends compare to the nation, Pew Research Center released a national study on March 16, 2018 titled, How Millennials today compare with their grandparents 50 years ago. This study shows dramatic differences in the generations:

• Baby Boomers: 72% White (non-Hispanic), 11% Black, 11% Hispanic, 5% Asian
• Millennials: 56% White (non-Hispanic), 21% Hispanic, 13% Black, 7% Asian
• Baby Boomers: 22% men and 20% women have bachelor’s degrees
• Millennials: 29% men and 36% women have bachelor’s degrees

A new study of the nation’s registered voters was released March 20, 2018, by the Pew Research Center, based on more than 10,000 interviews in 2017. Here are key comparisons between today’s politically dominant Baby Boomers and the emerging younger generations of voters:

• Millennials are the most independent (44%) of any generation (Baby Boomers, 32%)
• Democrats have a nearly two-to-one advantage among Millennials (59% to 32%) when adding in the “lean Democratic” independent voters
• Baby Boomers are evenly divided (48% Democratic, 46% Republican) when adding “leans”
• A large majority of Millennial women (70%) identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared to only 23% of millennial women who favor Republicans
• Overall, 56% of all women are inclined to support Democrats; 37% prefer Republicans
• Millennial men are 49%-to-41% Democrat over Republican, as compared to Baby Boomer men, who are 49%-to-43% Republican over Democrat
• White Millennials are 52%-to-41% Democrat over Republican, as compared to white Baby Boomers who are 53%-to-41% Republican over Democrat

 “Waves don’t always crash evenly.”

The most sensible political statement I’ve heard that defines this election cycle is from Jonathan Kappler, Executive Director of the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, who told an audience of political activists on Monday, March 5, 2018, “Waves don’t always crash evenly.”

Here’s why that statement is important to understanding political waves:

Does it matter if a wave crashes in an urban, majority-minority Democrat-friendly district where the African-American Democrat is going to win, wave or no wave?

Does it matter if a wave crashes in a predominantly white, solid Republican rural district in Western North Carolina where there are not enough Democrats for a wave to threaten the white Republican?

Winning and losing in almost all Congressional and legislative races today is all about how the districts are drawn. The few toss-up races are about which party shows up to vote. Enthusiasm.

According to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal national survey, conducted March 10-14, 2018, voters with the least interest in the midterm elections are both Democrat-friendly groups: Young voters (18 to 34-year-olds), with only 37% interested, and Independents voters, also 37% interested.

If Democrats fail to turn out younger voters and Democratic-leaning independent voters, they have no chance of taking back the legislative majorities in Washington, DC or Raleigh.

The NBC polls shows the highest level of interest in voting this fall is among Clinton voters at 64%, followed by Democrats at 60% and white voters with college degrees at 59%, who favor Democrats by big margins. Unfortunately for Democrats, most of the Clinton voters live in urban congressional and legislative districts already dominated by Democrats.

Next in the line of enthusiasm in the NBC poll is the 65-year-old-and-older voters at 58%, who tend to favor Republicans, the Trump voters at 57% and all Republicans at 54%. If Republicans do not match Democrats’ enthusiasm this fall, they risk losing the toss-up races … federal and state. That’s what happened in Virginia last year. Democrats had the enthusiasm advantage. Republicans didn’t show up.

My argument all along during this election cycle has been that a good economy, gerrymandered districts and offsetting scandals/indictments means low turnout which favors the status quo.

Yes, a transformative generational wave is looming on the political horizon. But will it crash ashore in 2018, threatening Republican majorities? The answer to that depends on whether Millennial voters stay home, like they did in 2016, because their only political options are appalling choices.

Do they back Republicans who support Donald Trump, with his chaotic management style, personal insults and porn star scandals, all the while, ignoring issues most important to young voters, like income inequality, gun laws, healthcare and healing the nation’s racial and ethnic divides?

Do they back Democrats who champion DC establishment Democrats, like Hillary Clinton? Those who enabled Donald Trump by rigging the federal government for privileged insiders and exploiting their public trust for personal gain while ignoring those who were struggling to make ends meet?

A transformative generational wave is looming on the political horizon.

END –

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