Post: November 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 29 “I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.” Erskine Bowles, speaking to Congressional Super Committee, November 1, 2011 Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: U.S. President On Labor Day, September 2, 2011,
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Post: November 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 29
“I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.”
Erskine Bowles, speaking to Congressional Super Committee, November 1, 2011
Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: U.S. President
On Labor Day, September 2, 2011, I published forecasts for the likely winners of the 2012 campaigns for U.S. President, including the GOP Presidential Nominee. Here are updates:
U.S. President UPDATE 11/2/2011: Obama wins
- Today’s Real Clear Politics polling average: Obama at 45% approval; 49.6% disapproval.
- Today, Gallup polling average has Obama’s job approval at 45%, with 48% disapproving.
- If Obama’s job approval is only 5 points from a winning 50% approval rating during worldwide economic turmoil and high dissatisfaction and uncertainty at home, then any sustained measure of growth in jobs/economy will restore his political viability.
- Today’s Public Policy Polling release shows Obama’s job approval in NC the same as the national figures: 45% approve; 50% disapprove.
- The PPP poll shows Obama virtually tied in North Carolina with Romney, and 3 to 8 points ahead of all other GOP contenders.
Running Against “Obstructionist” Republicans May Not be Enough
Although President Obama will continue to run with some success against “obstructionist” Republicans in Congress, that strategy alone will not likely be enough to restore the confidence of Americans in his ability to lead the nation out of an economic crisis.
Despite the fact that Congressional job approval is at a dismal average of 12.7% per Real Clear Politics; 82.3% disapprove, the winning presidential ticket will be the one the voters see as most likely to deal most effectively with the great needs of the day: jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, most importantly, the new normal of global competitiveness.
If you think about the backgrounds of President Obama and Vice President Biden, there is very little that would give Americans confidence that they are the most capable among governmental leaders to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, most importantly, the new normal of global competitiveness.
Romney-Gingrich Ticket a Serious Threat to Obama-Biden
A Romney-Gingrich ticket would be real threat to the Obama-Biden ticket because Romney has been in the private sector his entire life, with good success. Clearly he can make the better argument with Republicans, Tea Party conservatives and undecided Independent voters that he has the best credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness.
So, what is Obama to do next year if he is losing the debate over who is most competent to deal with the great economic problems of the day? He has no choice but to balance the Democratic ticket with someone who brings business experience and sound fiscal management to the table.
Erskine Bowles is that someone.
Yesterday, Erskine Bowles told the Congressional Super Committee, “I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.” That’s the kind of no-nonsense straight forward commentary the people of America want to hear someone say to elected officials.
If Obama is losing ground next year and needs to strengthen the ticket with someone who has the best credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness, there could not be a better choice than Bowles.
- Life-long successful businessman with MBA from Columbia
- Served on the board of many respected companies like GM, Morgan Stanley and Facebook
- Head of the U.S. Small Business Administration under President Clinton
- Chief of Staff to President Clinton during longest period of economic expansion in U.S. History
- Key negotiator on behalf of Clinton in the successful bipartisan talks that led to a balanced budget
- Headed a task force under Gov. Hunt on rural economic prosperity
- President of the University of North Carolina System 2006-2010
- Co-chair of President Obama’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
Just in case an Obama-Bowles ticket comes together, here is a bumper sticker for them to consider:
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Post: October 10, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 27 “To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity.” Undisclosed NC Republican legislator, September 28, 2011 1964 GOP Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater Lost 61.1% to 38.5% After
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Post: October 10, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 27
“To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity.”
Undisclosed NC Republican legislator, September 28, 2011
1964 GOP Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater Lost 61.1% to 38.5%
After my report two weeks ago titled, “Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie Can Defeat President Barack Obama, I received the following emailed comment from a Republican member of the legislature … a friend with sensible views I have long admired:
“To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity. We must continue our struggle in the pursuit of excellence and return to the fundamental principles upon which American greatness was built upon. Compromise is not the answer.”
I immediately thought about the 1964 GOP nominee for President Sen. Barry Goldwater, R-Arizona, and his famous battle cry, “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice!”
Extremism in the defense of liberty cost the GOP the White House in 1964, and extremism in the defense of uncompromising economic conservatism during the worst recession since the Great Depression will cost the GOP the White House in 2012. It is simply politically inept.
However, it cuts both ways.
Uncompromising liberal economic extremists (Democrats and Republicans) got this country into the crisis we all face today. For decades, in Washington D.C. and in Raleigh, N.C., liberals have refused to be restrained by the economic caution of conservatives when it comes to government spending.
The unwillingness of liberals to compromise is the reason our country got into this crisis, and the unwillingness of conservatives to compromise is the reason we can’t get out of this crisis.
24,845,594 Reasons Conservative Economic Extremism will Cost the GOP
Take a look at today’s US Debt Clock, a real-time accounting of our nation’s finances, and you will see that “Actual Unemployed” in the United States is 24,845,594. The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines “Actual Unemployed” as the total unemployed, added to all marginally attached workers, plus those working part time but want to work full time.
In my report “Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains Why NJ Gov. Chris Christie Can Defeat President Barack Obama, I wrote about a Gallup survey released Monday, Sept. 26, that shows that Americans strongly prefer leaders who will compromise to stimulate the economy and jobs growth.
- It’s more important to “compromise” in order to get things done say 51% of Americans, as compared to only 28% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. The remaining 21% are neutral.
- Republicans are evenly split: 37% “Stick to beliefs;” 36% “Compromise.” Neutral: 27%.
- Democrats are overwhelmingly for “Compromise” (62%) in order to get things done in Washington compared to only 20% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. Neutral: 18%.
- By almost 2-to-1, Independents say it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs” even if little gets done (27%).
Voters want jobs and job security, not ideological defiance. Voters want a bipartisan long-range plan for dealing with the nation’s debt and deficit crisis, not economic Puritanism.
Don’t Tell Mama I’m a Member of the U.S. Congress, She Thinks I’m a Lobbyist
There is an old joke passed down for many generations in political circles that goes like this: “Don’t tell mama I’m a lobbyist, she thinks I’m a piano player at a house of ill repute.” Well, in today’s hostile political environment that joke could easily be rewritten: “Don’t tell mama I’m a member of the U.S. Congress, she thinks I’m a lobbyist.”
A new national survey by Gallup released Today, Wednesday, October 12, 2011 reveals that the U.S. Congress is “on track to register its lowest annual average approval rating for any year since Gallup began measuring congressional approval in 1974.”
- Only 13% of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job.
- Republicans’ and Democrats’ approval of Congress is identical, at 14%, similar to the 13% among independents.
- Comparison: President Obama’s job approval is 41% today, October 12, 2011
NOTE for Clarification: When pollsters measure the job approval of the U.S. Congress, they are referring to the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives.
Many in the GOP seem to miss the fact that the 47 Republican members of the U.S. Senate and the 240 Republican members of the U.S. House are included in the historic high dissatisfaction with Congress. Republicans have 287 of the 535 members of Congress, or 54%.
If 81% of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing, that includes most Republicans in America disapproving of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing.
Economic Extremism will cost the GOP dearly in 2012 … but there is a win-win
Republicans are in trouble with American voters because they have allowed the most conservative among them to put “sticking to beliefs even if little gets done” ahead of “compromising in order to get things done.”
Voters want jobs and economic stability, not ideological defiance. Voters want a bipartisan long-range plan for dealing with the nation’s debt and deficit crisis, not economic Puritanism.
So, to my Republican friend with a history of sensible views while serving in the legislature who wrote me that “Compromise is not the answer,” please remember that in 1964, Barry Goldwater received only 38.5% of the votes to 61.1% for President Lyndon Johnson. Goldwater carried 6 states out of 50 (AZ, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC), and only 52 electoral votes compared to 486 for Johnson.
Still not willing to compromise? OK, there is a way out without having to compromise … collaborate. At least be willing to collaborate. It’s your best hope of ending the worst recession since the Great Depression, jump-starting jobs growth, and restoring confidence with a long-range plan for stability.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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“Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Appeal to the GOP and Why He Can Defeat President Barack Obama Post: September 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 26 “And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome
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“Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Appeal to the GOP and Why He Can Defeat President Barack Obama
Post: September 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 26
“And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome where people are also compromising.”
Gov. Chris Christie, R-New Jersey, Meet the Press, June 26, 2011
Less than Half of Tea Party Supporters Say “Stick to Beliefs”
Fiscal conservatives who believe that it’s more important for our leaders in Washington to “Stick to their beliefs even if little gets done” than it is to “Compromise in order to get things done” will be happy to know that almost half of all Tea Party supporters agree, according to an new Gallup survey released yesterday.
Ummmmmm, only half?
A Gallup survey released Monday, Sept. 26, shows that 45% of Tea Party supporters say it’s more important for leaders in Washington to “Stick to their beliefs” even if little gets done. A surprising 31% of Tea Party supporters say it’s more important to “Compromise” in order to get things done.
Here is the Gallup question:
“Is it more important for political leaders in Washington to compromise in order to get things done or is it more important to stick to their beliefs even if little gets done.”
- It’s more important to “compromise” in order to get things done say 51% of Americans, as compared to only 28% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. The remaining 21% are neutral.
- Republicans are evenly split: 37% “Stick to beliefs;” 36% “Compromise.” Neutral: 27%.
- Democrats are overwhelmingly for “Compromise” (62%) in order to get things done in Washington compared to only 20% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. Neutral: 18%.
Independents are 2-to-1 “Compromise” over “Stick to Beliefs;” Problematic for Current Slate of GOP Presidential Contenders
The most ominous message for uncompromising fiscal conservatives in the new Gallup survey is that by almost 2-to-1, Independents say it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs” even if little gets done (27%).
The Tea Party has an inordinate amount of influence over the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination process. There is no greater evidence of that point than the fact that the entire GOP presidential slate agreed that they would say “no” to a deficit/debt reduction deal of $10 in spending cuts to $1 in increased revenue.
On August 11, 2011, GOP presidential contenders staked themselves out as uncompromising fiscal conservatives when asked a question by Bret Baier, the moderator at the Iowa Presidential Debate, on the matter of whether to accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts over tax increases.
BRET BAIER: Well, I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal? Can you raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes, you’d walk away on the 10-to-1 deal?
BAIER: OK. Just making sure everyone at home and everyone here knows that they all raised their hands. They’re all saying that they feel so strongly about not raising taxes that a 10 to 1 deal, they would walk away from.”
When I saw all eight Republican candidates for president at the Iowa debate on August 11 say that they would not accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax increases I immediately thought, “Obama just won a second term.”
NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Unique Strength is in Dealing with Adversaries: “Principled Outcome Where People are Also Compromising.”
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was a guest on Meet the Press on June 26, 2011 (Transcript here).
The debt ceiling debate was stalled. The president was finally stepping into the negotiations. The American public was divided according to an AP poll: 41% opposed to raising the debt ceiling; 38% favored raising the debt ceiling.
David Gregory, host of Meet the Press, opened the show with a taped interview with Gov. Christie after noting that Christie was coming off a big budget victory where the Democratic-controlled New Jersey State Assembly passed a landmark cost-cutting budget that would save the state $120 billion over the next 30 years.
MR. GREGORY: “The battle, of course, [here in Washington] is between spending and taxes. What’s the way out of this mess here?
GOV. CHRISTIE: “The first thing is that the president had to get involved personally. And what I found in New Jersey, in our experience in dealing with what you just talked about, was there is no substitute for the three leaders in the room having to look at each other and having to hash this out. And everybody’s got to put skin in the game, David. I mean, I gave on things that I wanted. Obviously, the Senate–Democratic Senate president in my state, and the Democratic speaker gave on things they wanted, and we came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles. And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome where people are also compromising.”
“We came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles.” That’s the appeal of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to the GOP and the best argument for why he can defeat President Obama in 2012.
Throughout all of my reporting on the presidential race I have maintained that President Obama would defeat the current slate of contenders … in great part because they would not compromise on a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts over new taxes.
I have also said repeatedly that if NJ Gov. Chris Christie is the nominee, all bets are off.
The new Gallup study showing that Americas prefer that our leaders in Washington “Compromise” in order to get things done rather than “Stick to Beliefs” even if little gets done explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s appeal to the GOP … and why he can defeat President Barack Obama.
“We came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles.” That’s the leadership Americans are looking for … and deserve.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams; Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress Post: September 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 25 “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.” U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, September 22, 2011, chiding the
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No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams; Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress
Post: September 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 25
“What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.”
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, September 22, 2011, chiding the 48 GOP caucus members for voting against the stopgap measure yesterday.
No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams
The headline above the fold in today’s News and Observer is, “Obama: no shortcut to peace.” The quote was from President Obama’s speech yesterday to the United Nations in which he urged Israel and Palestine to settle their differences without relying on UN action.
On the economic front, he could have added, “and there is no shortcut to prosperity.”
A few years ago, I drove my daughter and her friend to New York City for a week of theater and shopping. She had dreamed of such a week for a long time and had saved over $1000.
It worked out quite well for me. After all, for some time I had wanted to get away to work on a book I had dreamed of writing. This was the perfect opportunity. The girls would leave the room mid-morning and spend the entire day in the city and not come back to the hotel room except to dress for an evening performance. I would be free to write all day the entire week.
What I did not anticipate was a near-fatal case of writers block.
Despite numerous attempts to establish momentum, I ended the first day with very little accomplished. That was followed by a second day of struggling to be productive … although I ended the day with a glimmer of hope after a couple of hours of research at New York City’s Mid-Manhattan Public Library.
Surely the third day would be a breakthrough of productivity. Not so. As noontime rolled around, I was no farther along than when I started the day. Frustrated, I decided to take a walk.
After a couple of blocks of aimless wandering, I noticed a crowd of people walking into St. Patrick’s Cathedral on 5th Avenue for the noon mass. Not having any better idea of what to do with my time, I decided to join them. Maybe prayer and meditation would jump-start my writing.
Voila! I found the remedy to my chronic writers block that day … in the homily. The title of the homily was, “There are no shortcuts to your dreams.”
I went straight back to the room and went to work. I ended up having a very productive week.
U.S. House Speaker Boehner Chastises Tea Party Republicans
We should all thank the Tea Party for forcing a nation in economic denial to see the nation-destroying consequences of unlimited sacred cow budgeting and unchecked spending and borrowing.
However, if the Tea Party does not loosen up on opportunities like a 10-to-1 spending cuts over tax increases, insisting on no new taxes, then it will be the Democrats who will be thanking the Tea Party for returning them to state and federal legislative majorities.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said as much today when he chastised the 48 members of the GOP caucus for voting against the stopgap measure yesterday. “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.”
There are no shortcuts to:
- Adjusting to the global economic correction: a monumental event likely requiring a painfully interminable period of austerity;
- Economic growth or job creation: an exercise requiring cautious and deliberate investments by the private sector in expansion that eventually will begin to add jobs;
- Getting our budget under control: an exercise requiring both painful spending cuts and program consolidation/elimination and tax reform … including new revenue.
Saying no to taxes is a shortcut.
Updated Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress
On Labor Day, September 2, 2011, I published forecasts for the likely winners of the 2012 campaigns for U.S. President, GOP Presidential Nominee, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, N.C. Governor and the likely North Carolina Senate and House majorities. Here are select updates:
U.S. President UPDATE 9/22: Obama will win a second term (without NC)
- Obama’s mid-40s job approval (43.6% Real Clear Politics average) at the lowest point of his administration, amidst worldwide economic turmoil and high dissatisfaction and uncertainty at home, argues for a near-50% job approval next fall with any measure of sustained growth in jobs/economy. He wins at 50%.
- Obama will run against “obstructionist” Republicans in Congress whose job approval hovers around 15% (Congressional job approval 13.5% Real Clear Politics average)
- Everyone in the current GOP presidential field has said “no” to a 10-to-1 spending over taxes deal and are losing credibility among most voters because their uncompromising stand.
- GALLUP released a survey September 20 in which:
- 70% of Americans favor “increasing taxes on some corporations by eliminating certain tax deductions,” including 53% of Republicans/Leaning Republican.
- 66% favor “increasing income taxes on individuals earning at least $200,000 (families $250,000),” including 41% of Republicans/Leaning Republicans.
- Over half of Republicans/Leaning Republicans favor 4 of the 6 proposals in Obama’s American Jobs Act including 84% who support “providing tax cuts for small businesses, including incentives to hire workers,” 56% who support “providing additional funds to hire teachers, police officers, and firefighters,” and 50% who support “providing additional funds for public works projects, including making repairs to more than 30,000 schools.”
Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY, reaffirmed in a Fox News Sunday interview on July 10, 2011, that “the single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term President.”
The greatest political trap that Republicans could find themselves in is for voters to conclude that their refusal to compromise on the American Jobs Act is driven by their #1 priority, to make Obama a one-term president.
GOP Presidential UPDATE 9/22: Mitt Romney likely GOP nominee
- Rick Perry will collapse under the weight of inexperience and cowboy bravado too reminiscent of President Bush.
- If Perry wins the nomination, most Americans will likely see him as a 3rd Bush term (Bush’s job approval was 25% in 2008), weakening his chances in a General Election.
- Romney will win out of the current field because he will be the last one standing after the others self-destruct. Romney cannot beat Obama without enthusiastic Republican and Tea Party support … and he has yet to generate much enthusiasm among right-wing conservatives.
- Recent polls show 51% of Republicans would prefer someone other than the current slate.
- NJ Governor Christ Christie can defeat Obama. Filing/running required.
U.S. Senate UPDATE 9/22: Republicans will win the U.S. Senate majority
- Currently 51/47 Democrat majority w/2 Independents who caucus with Democrats.
- Big GOP Advantage: Of 33 US Senate seats up for grabs, 21 are currently held by Democrats and 2 held by Independents who caucus with Democrats.
- Only 10 Republican seats are up for grabs in 2012, most deemed safe.
- GOP needs to win 4 of the 21 Democratic seats for majority (if they hold what they have).
U.S. House UPDATE 9/22: Republicans risk losing U.S. House majority
Republicans are clearly at risk of losing the majority in the US House of Representatives, as uncompromising Tea Party zealots will alienate independents as well as defeat/weaken GOP incumbents, rendering them vulnerable to moderate Democrats in swing districts.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, chided the 48 Republicans in his caucus this morning for rejecting the stopgap government funding bill on Wednesday, causing the bill to fail. “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen,” Boehner told reporters today.
The uncompromising actions of the Tea Party Republicans in the U.S. House have led to fears of a government shutdown reminiscent of the one under former Speaker Newt Gingrich, an event that led to the loss of confidence in Republicans … and the loss of the majority in Congress to the Democrats.
U.S. House Republicans cannot lose more confidence in their ability to lead. There’s none left.
– END –
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John N. Davis, Editor
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012 Post: September 5, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 3 NOTE: This is the final in a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that began on September 2 Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012
Post: September 5, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 3
NOTE: This is the final in a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that began on September 2 Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama. Today is Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012, including U.S. President, Congress, NC Governor and Legislature.
Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012
FORECAST – AGAINST THE CURRENT GOP FIELD, OBAMA WILL WIN A SECOND TERM – WITHOUT THE HELP OF NORTH CAROLINA:
If you go to the Real Clear Politics website, you can see a list of all polls conducted during the month of August. There were 20 polls that pitted Obama against either a generic GOP contender or one of the announced candidates for the Republican nomination.
Obama’s average in the 20 match-ups was 44.8% to 42.6% for the Republican. If he is holding his own despite his lousy job approval numbers and the continued dire economic circumstances facing the nation, then he is well on his way for reelection. (By the way, I did not include the 3 match-ups between Obama and Palin; he trounced her by 20+ points.)
Today, Labor Day, Real Clear Politics has Obama’s job approval at 44%, with 51% disapproving. Congressional job approval is 12%; with 84% disapproving.
It’s Jobs, Spending, Global Economic Correction … and a Leadership Crisis
Americans want so desperately to see encouraging signs of economic recovery that any positive news sustained over several months will have an exponentially positive impact on President Obama’s reelection potential.
The potential for sustained economic improvement grows daily as all political leaders realize that their days are numbered because voters are in a foul mood and want results now.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the jobs crisis.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the economic crisis caused by unsustainable federal budgeting.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the crisis caused by the global economic correction.
Voters have determined that America has a political leadership crisis equal in magnitude as the country’s economic crisis. All incumbents are vulnerable, especially members of Congress.
Remember, today’s Real Clear Politics has Obama’s job approval at 44%, with 51% disapproving. Congressional job approval is 12%; with 84% disapproving.
Voters are much more likely to vent their frustration at Congress than the President.
FORECAST – MITT ROMNEY WILL BE THE GOP NOMINEE:
After the dust settles at the Republican National Convention in 2012, there is a greater likelihood that Romney will be the nominee, with a Tea Party running mate to galvanize the social and economic right.
Republicans are hierarchical, and Romney has earned the right to assume the mantle.
The current front runner, Texas Governor Rick Perry, will self-destruct trying to defend his loose-cannon comments like those in his new book, “Fed Up!” Example: Social Security is a “violent” attack on core American values.
The book is an opposition research professional’s mother lode. “I wouldn’t have written that book if I was going to run for the presidency of the United States,” Perry said in an interview.
Perry, although a former Democrat who served as Al Gore’s state campaign chairman during the 1988 Presidential primaries, is a bona fide fiscal conservative who switched to the GOP in 1989.
However, Perry must overcome these two major obstacles:
- His trigger happy mouth has produced enough attack campaign fodder to fill the Astrodome.
- His Texas swagger and bravado are too reminiscent of George W. Bush, the President who voters blame more for the nation’s economic woes than the current President. There is no way the voters are going to vote for a third term for George W. Bush.
According to a September 1, 2011 Public Policy Polling release, “GOP voters like Perry better than Romney. But independents are a lot more willing to vote for Romney than Perry.”
Ultimately, Perry will scare off Independents.
The only other Republican who could defeat Romney (and Obama for that matter) says he’s not interested: NJ Gov. Chris Christie. Keep an eye on Christie. If he gets in, everything changes.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL OUTRIGHT LOSE/AT LEAST NEARLY LOSE THE US HOUSE:
The US House GOP leaders have wiped out the respect most American votes had for their potential to offer strong, problem-solving leadership. When US House Speaker Boehner caved in to Rep. Eric Cantor, R-VA and the other caucus Tea Partiers over the debt ceiling debate, his stock plummeted … along with the entire caucus.
Uncompromising ideologues in the US House GOP Caucus will continue to divide and conqueror the caucus, giving moderate Democrats (I repeat for emphasis, “moderate Democrats”) an opportunity to win the toss-up races and get within range of a small majority.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL WIN US SENATE MAJORITY:
The US Senate Republicans are likely to win the majority because of the way the deck is stacked in 2012. Of the 33 US Senate races up for grabs, 23 are currently held be Democrats. The Senate is currently a 51/47 Democratic majority, with 2 Independents who regularly caucus with the Democrats. That slim majority is too close to hold while defending 23 seats held by Democrats.
Retiring senators include 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans. If you add the 6 seats open due to retiring Democrats to the 17 additional incumbent Democrats up for reelection, you can see the big problem that Democrats face.
Only 8 Republicans are up for reelection in 2012.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL WIN NC HOUSE & SENATE:
North Carolina House and Senate Republicans are on track for a long period of sustained majority party status.
If the state Senate and House maps pass judicial scrutiny, then in a good Republican year they will win veto-proof super majorities in both chambers. In a bad Republican year they will maintain the majority.
If you add the maps to the money advantage, you can readily see the long-term prospects for GOP majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.
The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation put out an excellent study this week showing that Republican Senators had outraised the Senate Democrats 10-to-1 in the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Elections. The NC House Republicans have out-raised their loyal opponents by a 3-to-1 margin.
FORECAST – REPUBLICAN PAT McCRORY WILL WIN THE GOVERNOR’S RACE:
Governor Perdue has had a dismal couple of years struggling to establish her effectiveness as the leader of the 10th largest state in America. Judging by her chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … and the five veto overrides … she has yet to convince anyone beyond her base that she deserves a second term.
In 2008, Perdue won the race for governor against GOP nominee Pat McCrory only because of the historic voter registration and turnout of Democrats by the Obama 2012 Campaign for President. However, Obama is not likely to invest in a long-shot like North Carolina due to the loss of the surprise advantage (no one took his potential in NC seriously in 2008), and financial restraints.
Perdue’s relatively weak candidacy when compared to McCrory’s can be seen in the fact that even after outspending him $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats, she barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America.
- In an August 17 poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, only 37% of North Carolinians approved of Perdue’s performance as governor; 48% disapproved.
- PPP August 17 poll: “Perdue trails McCrory statewide (39% to 47%).”
- PPP August 17 poll: “The Governor wins the support of only two-thirds of Democrats, a fifth of whom defect to McCrory.
Further evidence of a weakened candidacy is the campaign fundraising report filed in July with the NC State Board of Elections. Perdue reported raising $1.3 million, with an outstanding debt to herself and her husband of $776,500 and cash on hand totaling $1.3 million. McCrory reported raising just over $1 million, with $940,000 in the bank.
Even if the economy begins to recover, and Obama’s job approval numbers return to a safe 50%, and he wins the White House, he is not likely to carry North Carolina.
If Obama can’t carry North Carolina, Perdue can’t win the governor’s race.
Well, there you have it. The John Davis Political Report Labor Day Forecasts.
Here’s wishing you a wonderful Labor Day Holiday.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 1 “In 2010, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis handed out red wristbands to all GOP House caucus candidates that had two words stamped on them: ‘Jobs’ and
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands
Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 1
“In 2010, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis handed out red wristbands to all GOP House caucus candidates that had two words stamped on them: ‘Jobs’ and ‘Economy.’ It was a reminder to stay focused on the issues most important to the voters.“
Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands
This is a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that begins today with Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and, later this afternoon, Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama.
Why the NC GOP Must Form a Political Coalition with Independents
Wednesday, I had the pleasure of serving as the guest commentator for the monthly Civitas poll luncheon here in Raleigh. Civitas’ August poll focused exclusively on Independent voters, a smart move in light of the fact that Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina now number 24% of the state’s 6,139,690 registered voters.
For emphasis: there are 1,482,315 (24%) Unaffiliated voters registered in North Carolina, compared to 1,934,499 Republicans (32%) and 2,711,322 Democrats (44%).
Although Republicans are enjoying unprecedented power in Raleigh and making the Democrats miserable in Washington DC, if they do not win the Independent vote their power will be short lived. There are simply not enough Republicans in North Carolina to ignore Independents.
Last month, in the July Civitas poll, 8 of 10 North Carolina voters said they split their ticket. Only 8% said they “Always vote Republican;” with 32% saying they “Vote Republican more often than Democrat.” As to the loyal opposition, 13% said they “Always vote Democrat,” with 25% saying they “Vote Democrat more than Republican.” Neither party can ignore Independents.
Although I am not permitted to share the specific August poll results due to Civitas’ upcoming release schedule, I am permitted to make the following general statements about the results:
- Independent NC voters blame both parties equally for the loss of the country’s AAA credit rating.
- Independent voters have a considerably less-than-favorable view of US House Speaker John Boehner, viewing him the same as US Senate Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid.
- President Obama’s favorable rating is considerably higher than both Congressional leaders.
Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands
Civitas, one of the seasoned leaders in the statewide conservative movement, is wise to conduct a study that shows conservatives that they just may return the reins of political power back to the hands of liberal Democrats if they don’t form a political coalition with Independent voters.
If all you have is 1,934,499 Republican voters out of 6,139,690 total voters, you had better form a coalition with someone or you are going to be left out in the cold. A successful political coalition can be formed only if you take the time to find out what your potential allies want out of government and meet them halfway between what they want and what you want. That’s the added value of the Civitas poll of Independent voters … you find out what they want.
In 2008, President Obama won the keys to the Oval Office and Democrats seized control of the Congress because the Independent voters abandoned the Republican Bush Administration and Congressional Republicans.
In 2009, Republicans won the Governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey because Independent voters soured on the Democrats … flipping from 2-to-1 Democratic leaning in 2008 to 60/40 Republican leaning in 2009.
In January 2010, Republicans won Sen. Teddy Kennedy’s US Senate seat in Massachusetts because Independents flipped from 2-to1 Democratic-friendly in 2008 to 2-to1 GOP-friendly.
In 2010, Republicans enjoyed unprecedented victories throughout the nation at all levels because Independent voters turned on the Democrats and voted for Republicans.
In 2010, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis handed out red wristbands to all GOP House caucus candidates that had two words stamped on them: “Jobs” and “Economy.” It was a reminder to stay focused on the issues most important to the voters.
The GOP wristband for the 2012 elections needs three words: “Jobs” “Economy” “Independents.” You can’t win without them.
Republicans in Congress have lost the respect of the American voters because they have allowed the most conservative among them to set the agenda during the debt ceiling debate, thereby running off moderate Republicans and Independents. The same thing could happen here.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Monthly Subscription $245. Premium Election Cycle Subscription $315 (through 12/31/2012!) Monthly rate for Premium Annual Subscription is now available at $23 per month (cancel at any time). Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online HERE!