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The Seduction of Exceptionalism: Secret to Forecasting Thom Tillis’ Upset Victory over Kay Hagan in America’s Most Expensive U.S. Senate Race
November 24, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 29 2:13 pm I had a secret forecasting advantage on January 10, 2014, when I titled the John Davis Political Report, Vol. VII, No. 2, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan. A secret advantage a year in the making.…
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November 4, 2014 Election Results a GOP Wave; Final Polls Tell North Carolina U.S. Senate Story
November 4, 2014 Election Results a GOP Wave; Final Polls Tell North Carolina U.S. Senate Story November 5, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 28 7:13 am Bottom Line: Big night for Republicans in the state and nation, with the driving force in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race being the fact that more voters were concerned…
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Difficult Week for Democrats as Disaffected Women and Blacks Drive Favorability Down to 1984 Lows
Difficult Week for Democrats as Disaffected Women and Blacks Drive Favorability Down to 1984 Lows October 17, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 26 10:13 am Women and Blacks Down on Democratic Party: According to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted October 9-12, 2014, the Democratic Party has the worst Favorable (39%) to Unfavorable (51%)…
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Make No Mistake, Hagan Hampered by President; GOP Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends Favor Tillis
Make No Mistake, Hagan Hampered by President; GOP Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends Favor Tillis October 8, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 25 5:13 pm “Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot,” said President Obama last Thursday, October 2, during a speech at Northwestern University in defense of his administration, “Every single one…
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UPDATE JANUARY 10, 2014 REPORT: North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan
UPDATE JANUARY 10, 2014 REPORT: North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan September 25, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 24 3:13 pm This is an update of my January 10, 2014 report titled, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to…
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Intimidation by U.S. Senate Democratic Leaders Weakened by Pundits Predicting GOP Majority
Intimidation by U.S. Senate Democratic Leaders Weakened by Pundits Predicting GOP Majority September 10, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 23 7:13 am Nothing chills political fundraising more than the intimidating word from the majority party leadership that anyone who supports a certain candidate can forget the majority party’s support when they need help with…
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NC GOP Winning Battle for New Voters; Favored this Fall over Democrats who are Losing Voters
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Wake County Democrats May Determine Next U.S. Senate Majority with Hagan Turnout Duties
Wake County Democrats May Determine Next U.S. Senate Majority with Hagan Turnout Duties August 27, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 20 3:13 pm Last Friday, August 22, 2014, Wake County was projected to have 1 million residents. That’s good news for Democrats, as urban voters almost always favor them over the GOP. Urban voters tend…
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If 2014 is a Referendum on the White House, then Sen. Hagan is in Right Much Trouble
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Eric Cantor’s Loss and a Hundred Million Reasons Republicans Can’t Fight the Last War in 2014
Eric Cantor’s Loss and a Hundred Million Reasons Republicans Can’t Fight the Last War in 2014 June 11, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 15 10:13 am Yesterday, June 10, 2014, for the first time in American history, the sitting U.S. House Majority Leader lost a campaign for reelection. Why? Many conservative Republicans are claiming today…