“I think an overwhelming portion of the intensely demonstrated animosity toward President Barack Obama is based on the fact that he is a black man … that he’s African American.” — Former President Jimmy Carter, NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams1 Former President Jimmy Carter stirred up a hornet‟s nest in September when he stated
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“I think an overwhelming portion of the intensely demonstrated animosity toward President Barack Obama is based on the fact that he is a black man … that he’s African American.” — Former President Jimmy Carter, NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams1
Former President Jimmy Carter stirred up a hornet‟s nest in September when he stated that an “overwhelming portion” of the anti-Obama crowd is motivated by racism. Former President Bill Clinton weighed in on Carter‟s comment, saying, “I believe that 100 percent of those who are opposing him [Obama] now would be against him if he were a white Democrat.”2
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On December 19, 1998, after a year of Congressional investigations and testimony riddled with salacious scandal, the U.S. House voted to impeach President Clinton. The next day, December 20, 1998, Clinton’s approval rating jumped ten points to 73 percent, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, an all time high for the embattled president, and higher
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On December 19, 1998, after a year of Congressional investigations and testimony riddled with salacious scandal, the U.S. House voted to impeach President Clinton. The next day, December 20, 1998, Clinton’s approval rating jumped ten points to 73 percent, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, an all time high for the embattled president, and higher than the highest approval rating ever achieved by President Ronald Reagan. At the same time, the number of Americans with a favorable view of the Republican Party fell ten points.
On Monday of this week, an Associated Press story1 reported that a new conservative group called Wake Up America has been organized here in North Carolina, a group intent on saving our state from corrupt, socialistic Democrats. Their TV ad2 states that “Corrupt Democrat leaders have been jailed in 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008,” and raises the question, “Are NC Democrats the most politically corrupt in America?”
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Labor Day marks the traditional kickoff of the 2009-2010 political racing season, with the victory lane winner earning the right to draw congressional and legislative districts for the next decade. Democrats start the race for partisan advantage in the pole position, the coveted front row, inside lane in motor sports. Democrats won the pole position
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Labor Day marks the traditional kickoff of the 2009-2010 political racing season, with the victory lane winner earning the right to draw congressional and legislative districts for the next decade. Democrats start the race for partisan advantage in the pole position, the coveted front row, inside lane in motor sports.
Democrats won the pole position by seizing all of North Carolina’s political power, including a majority in the state Senate and House, the congressional delegation, and the state Court of Appeals. Democrats own the keys to the governor’s mansion, and have an 8 to 2 advantage on the North Carolina Council of State. The only majority held by Republicans in state government is their 4 to 3 advantage on the “nonpartisan” (wink-wink) state Supreme Court. But does the pole position increase the odds of winning?
The greatest advantage of having almost all of the political power is that you get almost all of the political money. Money, most of which is contributed by the affluent, matters a whole lot in political racing. The candidate with the most money wins 87% of the time.
However, there is growing speculation that we are seeing a decline in the influence of affluence in American politics due to the Internet and the recession. Of the $745 million raised by Barack Obama in 2008, $500 million was raised on the Internet, with 6 million donations in increments of $100 or less. The have-nots contributed more than the haves.
The declining influence of affluence will also be apparent in the 2009-2010 election cycle because there are fewer contributors financially able to write big checks. Americans have reportedly lost $3 trillion in home equity and $7 trillion in shareholder wealth. We are seeing an additional 2.4 million new foreclosures this year, and unemployment is expected to reach 10% by year’s end.1 Don’t count on contributions from these folks.
The greatest disadvantage of having almost all of the political power is that you get almost all of the blame for everything bad that happens. As of the last week of August, Gallup’s national poll shows Obama’s job approval in a free fall since his January high of 69%, down to 50% at summer’s end.2 Two major concerns are driving the growing loss of confidence in the president: his handling of the economic crisis and healthcare reform.
According to mid-August Rasmussen Reports,3 more Americans trust Republicans on the healthcare issue than Democrats by 44% to 41%, with Democrats way down from their 10-point lead on the issue in June. This time a year ago, Democrats led Republicans on every major issue of the day except terrorism. Today, according to Rasmussen, voters prefer Republicans over Democrats on 8 out of the top 10 major issues of the day, including education and social security, issues in which Democrats have long enjoyed a public opinion advantage.
Further evidence that the Democrats may have a tough race ahead of them in 2010 is the fact that for the first time in two years, Republicans lead Democrats in the “generic congressional ballot,” with about 42% of Americans saying they are more likely to vote Republican in next year’s congressional elections and about 38% more likely to vote for the Democrat. This time a year ago, Democrats had a 10 point advantage over Republicans on the same generic congressional ballot.
Democrats in North Carolina are facing a litany of grievances that they will have to defend throughout the race, like their handling of the state budget crisis, which includes raising taxes by over $1 billion and making unpopular budget cuts like the loss of thousands of teachers and state employees and the closing of prisons, cuts that were deemed necessary by the same budget writers who approved a $25 million fishing pier. Can’t you hear that ad?
Democrats will also have to defend the out-of-control growth of high-paying administrative jobs in the UNC system, jobs characterized by system President Erskine Bowles as “an absolute embarrassment.” They are also facing voters angry about the misuse of political power, like Mary Easley’s $170,000 salary scandal that has led to the resignation of the Chancellor of NC State University, along with the provost and the chairman of the Board of Trustees. That scandal now includes allegations that State Auditor Beth Woods withheld an audit critical of Easley’s compensation package.
Former Governor Mike Easley, whose actions are under scrutiny by a federal grand jury, faces a growing list of allegations of a breach of the public trust that now include the mysterious disappearance of flight records in the hands of the North Carolina Highway Patrol. A federal grand jury has been gathering evidence for months. Surely indictments will follow.
This summer, we witnessed a spontaneous combustion among paycheck-to-paycheck voters at Town Hall meetings, voters shouting members of congress into a corner with in-your-face accusations of incompetence. Throughout the state and nation self-made challengers are stirring about, talking to family and friends and political insiders about exploiting this era of voter ire … an era in which voters are more likely to pull for the underdogs running on shoestring budgets and aided by unemployed volunteers using the Internet to organize and get out their messages … underdogs raising what money they can from many facing financial hardship but mad enough to write a small check to one of the little guys who will take a stand for have-nots.
Granted, the Democrats in North Carolina have the pole position at the Labor Day kickoff of the 2009-2010 political racing season. But, does the pole position increase the odds of winning? A recent study of the 2,102 NASCAR races held between 1949 and 2005, shows that “the marginal probability that the pole-sitter wins a race has been steadily declining over time.”4 Only 480 of the pole-sitters won those 2,102 races.
Pole-sitters beware.
References
- The Financial Forecast Center; http://forecasts.org/unemploy.htm
- Gallup Poll, 8/26/2009
- Rasmussen Poll, 8/13/2009
- The Value of the Pole: Evidence from NASCAR, Craig Depken, II, Department of Economics, Belk School of Business, UNC-Charlotte; May 2008
The 2009/2010 election cycle is heating up. Challengers throughout the state are beginning to move about, stewing over their potential for picking off an incumbent in next year’s congressional and legislative races. They sense that the national and state budget crises give them an opportunity to pounce on vulnerable prey. In the absence of sustained
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The 2009/2010 election cycle is heating up. Challengers throughout the state are beginning to move about, stewing over their potential for picking off an incumbent in next year’s congressional and legislative races. They sense that the national and state budget crises give them an opportunity to pounce on vulnerable prey.
In the absence of sustained economic recovery, next year’s political atmosphere will be dangerously unstable as competing groups and individuals maneuver to place the blame for our state and national ills on the opposition, while laying the better claim for a brighter future.
President Obama’s Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” Why? According to Emanuel, “Crisis provides opportunities to do things you could not do before.”
The Obama administration is clearly using the national economic crisis to advance issues like health care reform and energy policy. The “never waste a crisis” strategy, coupled with the president’s residual positive public opinion despite his occasional gaffs, are yielding impressive legislative successes … granted in the Democratic dominated U.S. Congress. But are they playing right into the hands of the Republicans?
With every legislative success comes political risk. If a frightening economic crisis allows the president to sell the Democratic congress a frightening bailout and economic stimulus package, no doubt Republicans will have more than enough for their attack ads. If an unprecedented budget deficit in North Carolina forces politically risky tax increases and the elimination of important programs and services by the Democratic legislature and Democratic governor, no doubt Republican admeisters are drooling in anticipation.
Oh, but wait … I forgot the ads have to be aired … and that costs money … and North Carolina Republicans never seem to have enough of the faithful willing to write a check to amass a competitive war chest. Republicans can’t raise money because they are disorganized and don’t trust each other.
Republicans in North Carolina don’t trust each other because they are entrenched in uncompromising ideological factions … factions who couldn’t care less that a crisis offers the best opportunity to make political gains if those gains have to be paid for with compromise and collaboration … factions with a history of opting to be on the right side of issues rather than on the winning side of campaigns.
Back in the day, the Democrats were disorganized and politically incapacitated in much the same way as Republicans today. The faces of the Democratic Party in the 1970s and 1980s were the left wing extremists … extremists who frightened Middle America much like right wingers do now. But then a group was formed by those around the country who were tired of losing campaigns … called the Democratic Leadership Council.
The Democratic Leadership Council argued that the party should shift from the radical left agenda and work to synthesize those views with the best from all political camps, including the political right. Under Democrats like U.S. President Bill Clinton and N.C. Governor Jim Hunt, conservative issues like welfare reform, getting tough on crime, and building more prisons were advocated with ardent political fervor.
Both parties did well in the 1990s, in great part because the country didn’t trust either party with all of the power. That’s what I see coming in 2010 … divided power. However, if history repeats itself in 2010, North Carolina Republicans will once again snatch defeat from the jaws of an opportunity crisis because they won’t work together.
There is another way for the GOP in the Ole North State … a way that synthesizes the best ideas from all Republicans; a way that provides a means for shared responsibilities among the leaders from all Republican camps.
There is another way … a way that reluctant financial backers, burned too many times by losing political investments, take even greater risks earlier on in the cycle; a way that accepts the reality that you can’t influence legislation if you don’t influence campaigns, and that hiring the best political advisors and recruiting the best possible candidates is the only way to have a reliable positive influence on the outcome of a campaign.
What is the other way? Collaborate.