John Davis Consulting

Trump May Be a Rogue, But He’s Their Rogue, With the Same Redemptive Support You Give Your Rogues

August 15, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 8       9:13 am

Understanding the MAGA Crowd’s Loyalty to Trump

FBI Raid Boosts Trump’s GOP Support for President 2024: Despite the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago, the House January 6 Committee, charges of tax evasion, and numerous other ongoing civil and criminal investigations, 58% of Republicans now say they would back Trump for president in 2024, a new high per an August 10 Morning Consult poll. Today’s Real Clear Politics average shows Trump’s support among Republicans at 56%; DeSantis 18%, Pence 8%, and all others 2% or less.

To illustrate why the MAGA crowd remains loyal to Trump, I would like to tell you about former DC mayor Marion Barry. I worked in DC during his rise to power and followed his career until his death.

Marion Barry, “Mayor for Life:” Marion Barry, an African American Democrat, served four terms as mayor of Washington DC. Per Wikipedia, his first three terms from 1978 through 1990, were marred by allegations of womanizing and drug abuse, slurred words and glassy eyes during public appearances, graft and embezzlement among his employees, and the highest murder rate in the United States.

Incredibly, Marion Barry was elected to his fourth term as mayor in 1994, after serving time in federal prison on a cocaine conviction. Despite a lifetime of personal mistakes, including numerous criminal charges and convictions, he was revered by the people of DC as “Mayor for life.”

He may not be perfect, but he’s perfect for DC

FBI Sting: In 1990, Mayor Marion Barry was arrested in an FBI sting when a former-girlfriend-turned-informant lured him to a hotel room, bugged with cameras, for cocaine and sex. At trial, the judge was forced to declare a mistrial on all counts resulting from the FBI sting, because half the jury believed the prosecution had set Barry up as a part of a conspiracy. Sound familiar?

Prison: Barry was convicted in 1990 of one cocaine possession incident which had occurred the previous year. That conviction led to time in federal prison from October 1991 to April 1992.

Not perfect, but: In 1992, Marion Barry ran for City Council under the slogan, “He may not be perfect, but he’s perfect for DC.” He won with 70% of the vote. In 1994, he ran for mayor and won. Although he did not run for mayor in 1998, he did run for City Council in 2004, receiving 95% of the vote, after having been caught with marijuana and cocaine in his car by the US Park Police.

IRS Problems: In 2007, Barry was chosen as one of 50 statues for Madame Trousseau’s Wax Museum in DC, even after he plead guilty to failing to file federal tax returns. He was not sentenced to jail because it could not be proved that he willfully failed to file taxes eight years in a row.

In 2010, the Council of the District of Columbia voted 12-0 in favor of stripping Barry of all committee assignments after investigations revealed that he had benefited personally from city contract deals. In 2011, the IRS put a federal tax lien against his property because of unpaid taxes. In 2014, Barry had $2,800 in unpaid tickets for speeding and parking violations.

Racist: By today’s standards, Barry was homophobic, racist, and xenophobic, having voted against a bill to recognize same-sex marriages, and frequently expressing his resentment of immigrants, like Filipino nurses taking jobs from locals in hospitals and “those Asian people and their dirty shops.”

The rest of the Marion Barry story

Civil Rights: Marion Barry earned a master’s degree in organic chemistry from Fisk University. He became active in the civil rights movement and was arrested on numerous occasions while protesting.

In 1960, Barry was elected chairman of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC), and in 1964 became one of the founders of the Southern Student Organizing Committee (SSOC). In 1965, Barry moved to Washington DC to run the local chapter of SNCC and lead civil rights demonstrations.

Food for the Poor: In the aftermath of the 1968 riots following the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr., Barry organized a program for free food distribution to poor blacks in DC neighborhoods that had been burned. He convinced the Giant Food supermarket chain to donate food, which he personally delivered. He was a member of DC’s Economic Development Committee, where he helped secure federal grants and private capital to rebuild black-owned businesses destroyed during the riots.

Education and Civic Leader: In 1971, Barry won a seat on the DC Board of Education, where he was elected president. He fought for larger budgets for education and raises for teachers. In 1974, Barry was elected as an at-large member of the DC City Council, followed by the four terms as Mayor.

Death and Memorial: Marion Barry died in 2014 at the age of 78. His tombstone reads, “Mayor for life, beloved forever.” His memorial includes a quote from Maya Angelou, “Marion Barry changed America with his unmitigated gall to stand up in the ashes of where he had fallen and came back to win.” He is buried in the Congressional Cemetery on a row with former FBI director J. Edgar Hoover.

Marion Barry’s story illustrates why the MAGA crowd remains loyal to former President Trump. He may be a rogue, but he’s their rogue, with the same redemptive support you give your rogues.

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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

 John Davis Political Report is complimentary. Feel free to circulate. Quote with attribution to John Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report. Sign up for the John Davis Political Report or check John Davis’s availability to speak to your group this fall at www.johndavisconsulting.com

Only the Strong Survive North Carolina’s Darwinian Politics in the Absence of a Partisan Advantage

July 20, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 7       1:13 pm

Three Ticks to the Right of Center is Not Enough

North Carolina is Middle America: Per the Cook Political Report’s just-released 2022 PVI (Partisan Voter Index) study, there are 25 states more Republican-friendly than North Carolina and 25 more Democratic-friendly (includes DC). North Carolina has a slight but not failsafe advantage for Republicans (PVI score is R+3, meaning the statewide Republican average for the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections is 3 points higher than the national Republican average).

For comparison: Wyoming, the most Republican of all states, has a PVI score of R+25. On the other end of the partisan spectrum, the District of Columbia has a PVI score of D+43, meaning the Democratic average is 43 points higher than the national Democratic average. Any idea how many Registered Republicans in DC? A whopping 5.37%.

More Republican than NC: The 25 states where the GOP has a greater advantage than North Carolina are Wyoming, West Virginia, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Idaho, Arkansas, Kentucky, South Dakota, Alabama, Tennessee, Nebraska, Utah, Louisiana, Indiana, Mississippi, Montana, Kansas, Missouri, Alaska, South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

More Democratic than NC: The Democratic advantage is greater than in North Carolina in Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii, California, New York, Washington, Rhode Island, Illinois, Delaware, Connecticut, Oregon, New Jersey, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.

Democrats/Republicans Share Statewide Wins: In North Carolina, Democrats and Republicans have practically an even chance of winning statewide. We have a Democratic Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and Auditor on the Council of State, along with a Republican Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Superintendent of Public Instruction, and Commissioners of Agriculture, Labor, and Insurance.

Other examples demonstrating North Carolina’s shared partisan advantage: We have a Democrat majority on the Supreme Court with a Republican Chief Justice who won by 401 votes of 5,391,501 cast; Trump (49.93%) barely beat Biden (48.59%) in 2020, and GOP US Sen. Thom Tillis won only by 1.8% despite his opponent’s sensational sex scandal.

North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race is Ted Budd’s to Lose

R+3 PVI + Red Wave Election Year = Advantage Republican: North Carolina is only three ticks to the right of center politically, not enough to give the GOP a predictable advantage in the U.S. Senate race to replace Sen. Richard Burr. However, the following facts from a July New York Times/Siena College Poll argue for a red wave election year, which combined with the R+3 PVI, give Republican Ted Budd the edge over Democrat Cheri Beasley:

• Biden’s overall job approval is only 33%; disapproval 60%
• 77% of Americans say the US is heading in the wrong direction
• 64% of Democrats prefer another presidential nominee in 2024
• An astounding 94% of 18 to 29-year-old Democrats want someone else

Most national forecasters agree that Budd has the advantage:

• FiveThirtyEight says the odds Ted Budd wins is 74 in 100
• Cook Political Report gives Budd “the edge” over Beasley
• RealClear Politics average of all polls shows Budd 45.6%; Beasley 41.8%
• UVA’s Sabato Crystal Ball says “Leans Republican”
• Inside Elections says “Lean Republican”

North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is Ted Budd’s to lose.

The positive side of being a swing state square in the middle of all states on the partisan political spectrum is that our 35 statewide races are so competitive that we are blessed with strong leaders. Only rarely do political circumstances allow a weak candidate to prevail.

Oh sure, Democrats think all the Republicans are weak and Republicans think all the Democrats are weak. Thankfully, they are both wrong.

In the Darwinian world of North Carolina politics, only the strong survive.

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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

For complimentary copy of the John Davis Political Report, or to check John Davis’s availability to speak, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com

Swing State Republicans Create Model for Winning in November 2022 by Managing “The Trump Factor”

June 3, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 6       3:13 pm

Republicans Quietly Shift Priority to Winning Over Loyalty to Trump

GA Republicans Have Winning on Their Minds: After losing the presidential race in 2020 and both US Senate races in 2021, Georgia Republicans are now putting winning over all other considerations, including former President Trump’s vindictive primary endorsements. A May Fox News poll asked Georgia Republicans what was more important in their choice for governor, “winning,” “Trump,” or “abortion.” Those who said “Can win in November” totaled 65%. Those who said “Supports Georgia abortion ban” totaled 35%. Those who said “Is a strong Trump supporter” totaled only 25%.

Trump’s Favorability Unfazed: Now get this, the same poll that showed Georgia Republicans rejecting Trump’s challenger Sen. David Perdue in the race for governor by 2-to1, opting instead to stick with incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, also showed Trump with a higher favorability score than Gov. Kemp (Trump 78% favorability; 72% for Kemp).

Managing “The Trump Factor:” Republicans learned a great lesson on how to manage “The Trump Factor” from Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 campaign. The key: Youngkin neither repudiated Trump nor kissed his ring. Youngkin focused on issues important to Virginia Republicans, like the economy, taxes, virus mandates, and K-12 education issues. That strategy helped Youngkin hold Republican voters in the General Election, including Trump voters, without alienating suburban swing voters.

Trump Attacked GA Gov. Kemp Relentlessly: Ever since former GOP President Donald Trump lost his race for a second term in the White House, he has attacked Georgia GOP Governor Brian Kemp for not accepting his claim that the election in Georgia was stolen. Trump called Kemp a “fool.” He said Kemp was “a disgrace to the great people of Georgia.”

This Time GA Republicans Weren’t Having It: Despite losing 61 lawsuits claiming voter fraud and numerous recounts in states like Georgia, Trump insisted Kemp cost him the Peach State. He even told a MAGA crowd in Perry, Georgia, last September, “Georgia must replace the disaster Brian Kemp.” He even said the Democratic nominee for governor, “might be better.” But this time, Georgia Republicans weren’t having it.

May 24, GA: Gov. Brian Kemp won 73.7% in GOP primary race over 21.8% for Trump’s challenger Sen. David Perdue. Four of Trumps statewide candidates lost.

Republican Turnout Up; Most Trump-Endorsed Candidates Win

Republican Turnout Up; Democrats Down: Per The Washington Post, turnout among Republicans in the 10 states that have held primaries is up 32% over 2018; Democrats down 3%. In North Carolina, 55% of the May 17 primary voters voted Republican (only 43% voted in the GOP primary in the 2018 midterm elections). And, despite the high-profile losses of Trump-endorsed candidates, most are winning (list includes Trump picks with no opposition):

March 1, TX: 32 of 33 Trump candidates won. Trump-backed AG Ken Paxton won a runoff election on May 24 against George P. Bush.

May 3, OH and IN: All 22 Trump Endorsements won, including J.D. Vance, a long-shot Ohio GOP US Sen. candidate.

May 10, NE and WV: 3-of-4 Trump candidates won (lost NE gov primary).

May 17, NC, PA, ID, KY: 23 of 25 Trump candidates won, including North Carolina GOP Primary picks, US Senate candidate Ted Budd (defeated fmr Gov McCrory), and US 13 pick Bo Hines (defeated K Daughtry/R Elmers). US 11: Rep. M Cawthorn lost to Sen. Chuck Edwards, while all other GOP incumbents endorsed by Trump won their races (Reps Greg Murphy, Virginia Foxx, David Rouzer, Dan Bishop, Richard Hudson, and Patrick McHenry).

In PA, Trump’s GOP US Senate candidate Dr. Oz won following a recount; PA State Sen. Doug Mastriano won GOP nod for Gov. In ID, Sen Mike Crapo won, while ID gov Trump pick, Lt Gov Janice McGeachin, lost. KY Sen Rand Paul won.

May 24, GA: Gov. Brian Kemp won 73.7% in GOP primary race, trouncing Trump’s hand-picked challenger. Trump’s favorability score among Georgia Republicans? 78%.

Republicans in swing states have created a new model for winning in the 2022 General Election. They neither repudiate Trump nor kiss his ring. Instead, they focus on issues most important to their voters, thereby keeping loyalists enthusiastic without alienating independents.

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John N. Davis

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Can Pat McCrory Disarm Gun Dealer Ted Budd Before the US Senate Republican Primary Shootout May 17?

April 13, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 5       8:13 am

Why Only One-in-Five Republicans Support McCrory in GOP Primary

• NC GOP “Trump Republicans:” 60% of NC’s likely GOP primary voters consider themselves more a “Trump Republican” than a traditional conservative, per an April Civitas poll (Apr 1-3). Those saying, “More traditional Republican,” totaled 34.7%.
• US Senate Race: This explains why 65-year-old former Gov. Pat McCrory has only 21% support in the GOP primary race, trailing Trump-endorsed candidate, 51-year-old US Rep. Ted Budd, a Davie County gun store owner, who leads with 32%. Undecided: 39%. (Only 30% is required to win the May 17 Republican primary.)
• Key Question: Why does someone as well-known among Republicans as former Gov. McCrory have only 21% support in the GOP primary? Here is the either/or answer:
• Either his campaign team is saving its ammunition for a specific date to launch ads (timing is everything in politics and McCrory’s team knows what they are doing, having helped both Senator Richard Burr and Senator Thom Tillis win all their races);
• Or, likely GOP primary voters, the most conservative of the party faithful, think McCrory is a RINO (Republican In Name Only) who has lost two races for governor (2008 loss to Beverly Perdue and 2016 loss to Roy Cooper) and made the “mistake” of saying that Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election was “destroying democracy.”
• WRAL-TV Poll: A new WRAL-TV poll (Apr 6-10) also shows Budd leading McCrory by 10 pts (Budd 33% to McCrory’s 23%; 33% Undecided).
• Endorsements: In addition to Trump’s endorsement, Budd has the primary support of Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Club for Growth Action, a conservative political fund that has spent $3.7 million on Budd’s behalf this election cycle.
• Betting Odds: Bet against McCrory? Maybe. But I would not bet against his team of seasoned pros, led by Paul Shumaker, Capitol Communications. Look for a barrage of well-targeted, data-driven ads about three weeks out.

Political Implications of New CPI Report for Cheri Beasley’s Chances

• CPI Politics: The two most politically devastating numbers in the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released Tuesday, April 12, are the 10% increase in “food at home” prices since March 2021 and the 48% year-over-year increase in gas prices.
• Biden’s Job Approval: High food and gas prices will drive down job approval numbers for all Democratic US House and Senate incumbents and weaken the potential of their newcomer candidates. Biden’s job approval, already in a downward spiral (Real Clear Politics average April 13 is 41.3% approve; 52.7% disapprove), is about to drop below 40%.
• “Putin did it!” No one is going to believe the Biden/DNC line, “Putin did it.” Bad news for Democrats in close races, like former Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court Cheri Beasley, the presumptive Democratic nominee for US Senate.
• Democrat Cheri Beasley, who lost the 2020 race for NC Chief Justice to Republican Paul Newby by only 401 votes of 5,391,501 cast, will likely have an even more difficult time in 2022 considering Biden’s lousy job approval.
• Forecasts: There is a growing consensus among the nation’s leading prognosticators that the GOP nominee in NC’s US Senate race is favored to win this fall. Cook Political Report says North Carolina’s US Senate race is “Lean Republican;” Inside Elections says “Lean Republican,” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball says “Lean Republican.”
• The new CPI report from the BLS, showing a year-over-year increase of 10% in “food at home” prices and 48% increase in gas prices, is what is driving the #1 problem facing the nation, “High cost of living/inflation,” so says Gallup’s March 2022 national survey.
• Bottom line: If the GOP primary were held today, Congressman Ted Budd would win with greater than 30% of the vote. If the General Election were held today, the GOP nominee would defeat the presumptive Democratic nominee, Cheri Beasley.
• Voting Information: North Carolina’s Democratic and Republican primaries are May 17. Vote by mail instructions here. In-person early voting begins Thursday, April 28, 2022, ending on Saturday, May 14, 2022. Find your early voting site here.

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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

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Democrats’ Loss of National Moral Authority Threatens Their Candidates in North Carolina this Fall

March 31, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 4       1:13 pm

Biden is the Democratic Party’s Biggest Problem

I’m not quite sure how President Biden and congressional Democrats get out of the political hole they’ve dug themselves into in time to stop a Republican takeover of the US House and Senate this fall. On their watch, per the March NBC News poll, a staggering 71% of Americans said the country is “off on the wrong track.” Democrats have lost the moral authority to lead the nation.

The #1 problem facing the nation? Inflation. The cost of living.

Per the NBC News poll, “cost of living” is the #1 problem facing the nation, with six-of-ten (62%) Americans who said they are “falling behind” the cost of living; 31% said they were “staying about even.” Only 6% said they were staying ahead of inflation.

And who or what do voters blame for the rising cost of goods and services? “President Biden and his policies” leads the list in the March NBC News poll. Only 33% of Americans approve of President Biden’s handling of the economy; 63% disapprove. Not good for Democrats when historically the results of midterm elections are driven by presidential job approval.

Following “Cost of living” and “Jobs and the economy” on the most important problems list is the “War between Russia and Ukraine.” How much confidence do Americans have in Biden’s ability to manage this crisis? Only 12% say “A great deal of confidence; 16% say “Quite a bit of confidence.” That leaves 71% who have either “Very little confidence” (44%) or “Just some confidence” (27%).

President Biden has become the Democratic Party’s biggest problem.

Growing Likelihood of Biden Resignation; President Kamala Harris

The lack of confidence in Biden’s ability to manage the nation’s reaction to the war in Ukraine will likely be even lower after the President’s recent gaffe-prone trip to Belgium and Poland, gaffes that even the Washington Post described as “a frightening pattern.”

Biden set off alarms worldwide when he suggested to members of the North Carolina-based 82^nd Airborne Division that they would soon be fighting in Ukraine, saying, “You’re going to see when you’re there ….” Biden shocked his own White House staff by saying that NATO would respond “in kind” with chemical weapons if Russia used them first.

There has been an ongoing pattern of behavior that suggests Biden is not physically fit or mentally acute enough to effectively serve out his first term as president, much less a second term. Many polls have documented voter concerns about Bidens fitness, including the NBC News poll this January that found only 33% of Americans who thought President Biden had “the necessary mental and physical health to be president.” Observations like these over time led to my July 9, 2021 report titled,  Why Americans Can Expect and Republicans Should Prepare for President Kamala Harris Before 2024.

Democrats simply cannot take the risk that an 82-year-old Joe Biden will be strong enough to win a second term in 2024. Nor can they risk another Hillary Clinton disaster in the event Vice President Harris proves lacking as a presidential contender.

Unfortunately for Harris, playing second fiddle to a weak president jeopardizes her candidacy in 2024. Harris is likely more capable than the Biden White House staff will allow. She has been given the Administration’s worst self-imposed problems, like the crisis at the border with Mexico, without the authority or resources to solve them for fear she will upstage the president.

Responsibility without authority. That’s what this White House has given Harris. It’s no wonder she too is struggling with low job approval numbers.

On the other hand, to achieve the party’s aspirational goal of having a woman in the Oval Office, look for Biden to resign after the 2022 midterm elections, giving the Democratic Party what will likely be his greatest legacy, the first woman President of the United States of America.

Biden’s resignation will also give Harris the opportunity to develop the presidential timbre needed to be an effective candidate in 2024 for a full term in the White House. Frankly, it’s her only hope after being severely weakened politically by her association with Biden and his White House staff.

Weak Democrats in DC Threaten Party Nominees in NC

 A year ago, the April 2021 NBC News poll showed President Biden’s overall job approval at 53%, with only 39% disapproving. Today, only 40% approve of Biden’s job performance; 55% disapprove.

Will Democratic voters turn out when their top party leaders are such a disappointment?

The April 2021 NBC News poll showed Biden’s job approval among Black voters at 83%; it was down to 62% this March. Biden’s job approval among Latinos has dropped 20 points from 59% last April to 39%. Women from 61% approval last April to 44% in the latest NBC News poll.

Worst yet, among independent voters Biden’s job approval has plummeted 36 points from 68% last April down to 32% this March. Politically, it’s very difficult to get voters back after you lose them.

These negative trends are bad timing for Democrats everywhere, leaving little doubt that Democrats’ loss of national moral authority threatens their candidates in North Carolina this fall.

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John N. Davis

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Today is a Great Day to be an American, a Nation of Laws; a North Carolinian, a State of Laws

February 24, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 3       4:13 pm

It all started 219 years ago on February 24, 1803

The partisan fact that a 4-3 “Democratic” North Carolina Supreme Court ruled that the “Republican” maps were unconstitutional is irrelevant. The only thing relevant is the North Carolina Supreme Court had the authority of judicial review of the legislative maps.

This morning’s News & Observer carried a story quoting Republican North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore, R-Cleveland, saying, “The trial court’s decision to impose a map drawn by anyone other than the legislature is simply unconstitutional and an affront to every North Carolina voter.”

No, Mr. Speaker, what is an affront to every North Carolina voter is a legislature that does not respect the constitutionality of the doctrine of judicial review.

The same N&O story quoted Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, D-Nash, saying, “Today’s decision allows a blatantly unfair and unconstitutional state Senate map that may have been the worst of the bunch,” concluding, “Our elections should not go forward until we have fair, constitutional maps.”

No, Governor, under the doctrine of judicial review it is the state Supreme Court that determines the constitutionality of the maps. The court has ruled that the maps, including the state Senate map, are constitutional. It’s time to go forward with our constitutional maps.

Yes, Republicans have a greater advantage with the state Senate map than Democrats, with 24-of-50 districts favoring the election of the GOP candidate (only 26 needed for the majority). Democrats have 19 structurally favorable districts. There are 7 competitive districts.

And, Republicans also have a greater advantage with the state House map than Democrats, with 56-of-120 districts favoring the election of the GOP candidate (only 61 needed for the majority). Democrats have 47 structurally favorable districts. There are 17 competitive districts.

But, if you do not like the decisions of the North Carolina Supreme Court, then take advantage of the two opportunities you have this year to elect justices more likely to support your interpretation of the state constitution. Both seats on the ballot this fall are currently held by Democrats: Justice Robin Hudson is retiring, and Justice Sam Irvin, IV, is seeking another term.

If Republicans win one of the two races, the court will have a 4-3 Republican majority. A Republican-majority court will have the same authority of judicial review enjoyed by the current Democratic-majority court. Perhaps a Republican court will see the maps differently.

Look for record-breaking spending in 2022 Supreme Court races

According to a Brennan Center study of spending in state judicial races, a record $97 million was spent in 21 states, including in North Carolina, on state Supreme Court races during the 2020 elections. Candidates for the North Carolina Supreme Court raised $7,056,001 in the last campaign. One group, A Better North Carolina, spent $3.4 million on behalf of 3 Democratic candidates for the state Supreme Court.

Candidates who have filed for Justice Hudson’s seat include Democrat Lucy Inman, a judge on the North Carolina Court of Appeals. Inman, who graduated from the UNC School of Law in 1990, reported raising $405,000 year-end 2021. Republican Court of Appeals Judge Richard Dietz has also filed. Dietz graduated from Wake Forest School of Law in 2002 and reported raising $239,000 year-end 2021.

Democratic Justice Sam Ervin, IV, running for another term, graduated from Harvard Law in 1981 and reported raising $382,000 year-end 2021. Two Republicans have filed to challenge Ervin: Trey Allen, a graduate of the UNC School of Law in 2000, who reported raising $292,000 year-end 2021. Also filing as a Republican is Court of Appeals Judge April Wood, a graduate of Regent University School of Law. Wood reported raising $132,000 year-end 2021.

A perfectly balanced battleground state

On November 4, 2021, the North Carolina General Assembly drew a congressional map that gave Republicans an advantage in 10 districts, Democrats an advantage in 3 districts, with 1 tossup district. The congressional map approved last night by the North Carolina Supreme Court for the 2022 races gives Republicans an advantage in 6 districts, Democrats an advantage in 6 districts, with 2 tossup districts. Although balanced fairness is not required in our state constitution, clearly the 2022 map is a better reflection of who we are in North Carolina, a perfectly balanced battleground state.

How balanced? The average Republican and Democratic winning percentages in all 35 of our most recent statewide races (15 Court of Appeals, 7 Supreme Court, 10 Governor and Council of State, 2 U.S. Senate and 1 US President) is 50.1% Republican and 49.3% Democratic. Perfectly balanced.

Today, February 24, 2022, candidates are beginning to file to run in North Carolina districts originally drawn by the legislature and now cured as constitutional by way of judicial review, a doctrine established by the US Supreme Court ruling February 24, 1803 in Marbury v. Madison.

It’s a wonderful day to be an American, a nation of laws; a North Carolinian, a state of laws.

END –

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John N. Davis

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Justice As Rendered in 2022 by US Supreme Court and NC Supreme Court Was Determined at the Ballot Box

January 4, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 1       2:13 pm

US Supreme Court likely to make Democrats’ lives miserable

The US Supreme Court is likely to make Democrats’ lives miserable this year. And next year. And many years after that. All because Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, giving him the authority to nominate three Supreme Court Justices (Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, Barrett), at a time Republicans were the majority party in the US Senate (2015-2021), guaranteeing the confirmation of Trump’s picks that resulted in today’s 6-3 conservative court.

Roe v. Wade? Gone. By June. It’s a 6-3 conservative court. Seven of the nine justices are Catholic, including the six conservatives. There are two Jews on the court (Justices Kagan and Breyer); no protestants, although Justice Gorsuch’s religious affiliation is listed as Anglican/Catholic.

Liberal Justice Sonya Sotomayor, the court’s first Hispanic justice, is also Catholic, but a staunch supporter of a woman’s right to choose to have an abortion. She knows what’s coming. Sotomayor told an audience of law students at an American Bar Association event in 2021, “There is going to be a lot of disappointment in the law, a huge amount.”

The US Supreme Court will distinguish itself in two major areas this term. One, it will leave no doubt that it is a 6-3 conservative court. Two, it will show it’s bent toward federalism by pushing more authority back to state courts, as it did in the 2019 North Carolina case, Rucho v. Common Cause, a decision that gave the state Supreme Court the final say so on matters of partisan gerrymandering.

NC Supreme Court likely to make Republicans’ lives miserable

The North Carolina Supreme Court is likely to make Republicans’ lives miserable this year. That’s because it has a 4-3 Democratic majority with the authority to decide whether the Republican-drawn congressional and legislative maps violate the state constitution.

I assure you the three current maps, passed on November 4, 2021 by the Republican majority in the North Carolina General Assembly on a party-line vote, will not pass state constitutional scrutiny by a 4-3 Democratic state Supreme Court. The state constitutional test? It will likely be whether the maps are considered “extreme partisan gerrymanders,” a new legal test created by a Superior Court three-judge panel in 2019; a test that forced the redrawing of congressional and legislative districts for 2020 races.

You be the justice: Do you think North Carolina’s 14-district congressional map, with 10 friendly Republican districts, 3 friendly Democratic districts and one competitive district, is “extreme partisan gerrymandering” in a battleground state where neither party has a predictable political advantage and almost all of its 35 statewide races go down to the wire?  I agree with you.

A 4-3 Democratic majority on the state Supreme Court will not allow 10-3-1 Republican-drawn congressional map to stand. Nor will a 4-3 Democratic majority allow state legislative maps like the current Senate map, that gives Republicans 24 safe seats (26 needed for a majority) to only 17 for the Democrats, with 9 competitive seats, per an analysis by the News & Observer. The N&O analysis also showed a GOP advantage in the NC House map, with 55 safe Republicans seats of the 61 needed for a majority to only 41 for the Democrats and 24 competitive seats.

If you doubt the state Supreme Court’s power over elections, remember, they unilaterally stopped candidate filing last year and changed the primary from March 8, 2022 to May 17, 2022.

Future justice will be determined at the ballot box in 2022

It’s a bit discouraging to think that our judges and justices, our referees, have a partisan bias. It’s a bit naïve to think that they don’t. When it comes to partisan issues like redistricting, my observation is that lady justice peeks out from underneath her blindfold to check the political party of the litigants, and tilts the scales of justice accordingly. That’s especially true in North Carolina, where justices run as Democrats and Republicans.

So, if you want to help protect your political ideology at the state level, get involved in the two North Carolina Supreme Court races this year. The only two seats up for election are currently held by Democrats. Democrats will have to win both to keep their 4-3 edge. Republicans will need to win only one to seize a 4-3 GOP majority.

And, if you want to protect your ideological interests at the federal level, help elect North Carolina’s next US Senator (Sen. Richard Burr is retiring), because that senator will be voting on the nominations of future justices on the US Supreme Court.

Meanwhile, look for liberal US Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, appointed by President Bill Clinton, to retire by June to ensure that another Democratic President will pick his successor while Democrats have a 50-50 US Senate with VP Kamala Harris breaking tie votes.

Of interest, Breyer’s replacement this year will not only be a liberal Democrat, but she will also be the Court’s first African American female, a promise made by Joe Biden on the campaign trail.

Bottom line: Democrats lost the balance of power on the US Supreme Court because they lost the 2016 presidential race. Republicans lost the balance of power on the NC Supreme Court because they lost state Supreme Court races in 2016 and 2018.

Like it or not, justice in the United States of America is determined at the ballot box.

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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

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North Carolina’s Democratic Islands are Surrounded by a Sea of Republican Precincts in Exurban Counties

October 1, 2021       Vol. XIV, No. 11       12:13 pm

Democratic islands in a sea of Republican precincts

So, how is it that Republicans won 13 of the 17 statewide races in North Carolina in 2020? The 2020 US Census results show the biggest population gains were in Democratic-friendly urban counties and most of the population losses were in Republican-friendly rural counties. The reason is that exurbia, the regions just beyond the big city suburbs, are Republican-friendly areas that grew exponentially too!

As to the population losses in Republican-friendly rural counties, they have so few voters that their political impact is minimal. Those losses are offset by Republican gains in exurbia.

The only four statewide races won by Democrats in 2020 were Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and Auditor. Republicans won 6 of 10 Council of State races, including Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Public Instruction, Agriculture, Insurance and Labor.

Republicans won all five of North Carolina’s statewide appellate judiciary races in 2020, including two Supreme Court races and the race for Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Republicans also won the U.S. Senate race (Tillis) and the presidential contest.

Republicans held both chambers in the North Carolina General Assembly in 2020 and won 8 of 13 races for the United States Congress.

North Carolina is a swing state … period. Neither party has a structural political advantage.

The fact is, urban growth is regionwide growth, including the surrounding Republican precincts, not just the Democratic-friendly precincts in anchor counties like Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Forsyth, Buncombe, Cumberland and New Hanover.

North Carolina’s big cities are like Democratic islands in a sea of Republican-friendly precincts.

Population losses in rural counties have minimal political impact

Population losses in the state and nation in conservative, rural areas have a minimal political impact because the total number of voters in rural counties is so small.

The best illustration of that conclusion can be found in the following series of facts: The US Census shows that 1,636 (53%) of US counties lost population in the last decade, almost all of them rural. President Trump won 90% of all counties that lost population. However, that 90% represents only 19% of Trump’s total 74 million votes.

So, where did the rest of Trump’s 74 million votes come from? From that sea of Republican-friendly precincts in those exurban counties surrounding many of the Democratic-friendly urban anchor counties throughout the nation.

You can see the same results here in North Carolina. The US Census shows that 51% of North Carolina’s 100 counties lost population in the past decade, most of them conservative, rural counties. Trump carried 39 of the 51 counties, or 76% of North Carolina counties that lost population.

However, the 39 counties Trump carried that lost population were only 20% of his total vote in North Carolina (558,101 of 2,758,775). The other 80% of Trump’s votes in North Carolina came from counties that grew, especially those exurban areas that grew exponentially since 2010.

For example, Democratic-friendly Mecklenburg County added 195,853 people to its population during the past 10 years. Surrounding Republican-friendly counties, like Gaston, Union, Stanly, Rowan, Cabarrus, Lincoln, Iredell and Catawba, grew by a combined 159,044. They all went for Trump, giving him a total of 451,346 votes. Mecklenburg County gave Biden 378,107.

Urban growth in North Carolina is positive politically for both Democrats and Republicans.

Implications for redistricting in October and candidate filing in December

Public hearings on redistricting ended on Thursday, September 30. Congressional and state legislative maps will be drawn and litigated in October and November, all in time for candidate filing from December 6 through December 17. Primary Election Day is March 8, 2022.

Criteria adopted by a joint meeting of the Senate and House Redistricting Committees in August stipulates that “data identifying the race of individuals” and “partisan considerations and election results” shall not be used in the drawing of districts. Those are rare concessions by both sides.

My sense, based on population growth patterns, is that neither party is in a position to make some sort of lopsided power grab through remapping. At best, the parties will end up with an advantage in a little less than half of the districts. Meaning they will have to battle it out for the majority every two years for the rest of the decade.

Such is life in swing states like North Carolina, where either party can win or lose it all in 2022.

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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Need a speaker or continuing education presentation? Visit www.johndavisconsulting.com

Why Americans Can Expect and Republicans Should Prepare for President Kamala Harris Before 2024

July 9, 2021       Vol. XIV, No. 10       7:13 am

Democrats cannot risk another Hillary Clinton disaster

Vice President Kamala Harris has made many rookie mistakes this year, most recently her mismanagement of President Biden’s already-mismanaged immigration crisis at the border with Mexico, all of which is immaterial to the Twenty-fifth Amendment of the US Constitution, which states that the vice president shall become president if the incumbent resigns, which is becoming increasingly likely.

There are numerous reasons that may prompt President Biden to resign during his first term, like a major health issue, a smoking gun scandal tied to Hunter Biden’s record of exploiting his influential father for foreign quid pro quo business deals, or perhaps a GOP wave election year in 2022 giving Republicans control of Congress and effectively crippling the Biden Administration’s agenda.

However, the #1 reason President Biden is likely to resign during his first term is this: Democrats cannot risk a 2024 repeat of Hillary Clinton’s disastrous 2016 presidential campaign when the aspirational opportunity of a liberal woman of color in the Oval Office is at stake.

What if Kamala Harris turns out to be a flawed nominee like Clinton, a privileged insider whose arrogance of invulnerability affects strategic mistakes and the loss of an eminently winnable contest?

Democrats can’t take that risk.

What if Joe Biden, who will be 82 years old in 2024, is not physically or mentally strong enough to compete in the brutal cage fight that presidential politics has become?

Democrats can’t take that risk. The stakes are too high; the opportunity too great.

Kamala Harris checks all the right boxes

Kamala Harris checks all the right boxes for 21^st Century culturally diverse America: female, the daughter of an Afro-Jamaican immigrant father who taught economics at Stanford; the daughter of an Asian Indian immigrant mother, a career oncologist who raised her two daughters to be “confident, proud Black women,” says Harris in her 2019 book, The Truths We Hold.

Harris writes that her mother, who died of cancer in 2009, was “the most important person in my life.” So, what was her mother’s influence? According to the LA Times, it was that of the Brahmins, India’s “privileged elite” in the ancient Hindu caste system. The crème de la crème. The landowners. The credentialed professionals in law, medicine and engineering. Those who for centuries have set the highest standards of discipline and educational attainment for their children.

It would surprise no one in India’s Brahmin community that Kamala Harris is the highest-ranking female elected official in US history. Nor would they be surprised that while earning her undergraduate degree in political science and economics at Howard University, Harris chaired the economics society and led the debate team. That she went on to earn a law degree from the University of California’s Hastings College of Law.

It would surprise no one at the 23^rd Avenue Church of God in Oakland, California, where Harris she says she learned to “speak up for those who cannot speak for themselves,” that she won five political campaigns in California, including DA of San Francisco, Attorney General of California in both 2010 and 2014, US Senator from California in 2016, and Vice President of the United States in 2020.

So, if I’m right and President Biden does hand over the keys to the Oval Office before the end of his first term, what can we expect from a President Harris administration?

What would be the priorities of a President Kamala Harris?

First and foremost, a Harris Presidency would be focused on what she sees as social and economic injustices that have reached the boiling point, especially the disparities between rich and poor Americans in the areas of income, healthcare, education, housing and criminal justice. “The goal of economic growth has to be to grow the pie. But if all that’s left for workers are the crumbs, what kind of economy are we really building?” Harris says in her book.

Equal rights and opportunities for women and minorities, including new immigrants, will be paramount in a Harris Administration. Equality and diversity will be more than political talking points, they will be the prisms through which a Harris administration views all public and private entities.

Look for an estrangement between the White House and much of corporate America similar to what we saw during the Obama Administration. “We must speak truth about greedy, predatory corporations that have turned deregulation, financial speculation, and climate denialism into creed,” writes Harris.

Harris believes that President Ronald Reagan ushered in “a new era of selfishness and greed. Corporate profits have soared, but American workers haven’t gotten a meaningful raise in 40 years.” A champion of unions, Harris argues, “We need a rebirth of organized labor in America.”

The goal of identity politics in today’s Democratic Party is to end centuries of white male domination of power in Washington. Towards that end, a Biden presidency is politically expendable; a Kamala Harris presidency is not.

Americans can expect and Republicans should prepare for President Kamala Harris before 2024.

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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Need a speaker or continuing education presentation? Visit www.johndavisconsulting.com