John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Republican average weekly advantages over Democrats during August are higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942.” Gallup News Release, August 30, 2010

Post: August 31, 2010, by John Davis

GOP HEAT WAVE BREAKS 68-YEAR-OLD RECORD DATING TO 1942

It has been hot here in Raleigh this year.  As a matter of fact, this summer we had a 102° day that broke a 61-year-old record for heat in the Triangle.  Politically, throughout the United States, it has been a long, hot summer too … especially for Republicans.  According to Gallup, when it comes to political heat, the Grand Ole Party has broken a 68-year-old record.

Yesterday, Monday, August 30, 2010, Gallup announced that Republicans had a 51% to 41% lead over Democrats among registered voters in Gallup’s weekly tracking of 2010 congressional generic ballot.  Gallup stated that Republican weekly leads over Democrats in August “are higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942.  That’s 68 years ago … a fact that cannot be overemphasized.

August has not ended well for Democrats.  Just last week, on the economic/political fronts:

• Sales of existing homes dropped 27% from June to July, the lowest point since 1999.
• The Dow closed just below 10,000 for the first time since early July.
• On Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke described the nation’s economic outlook as “inherently uncertain” and said the economy “remains vulnerable to unexpected developments.”
• ON THE POLITICAL FRONT:  In Florida last Tuesday, the Democratic Senate primary drew just over 900,000 voters; the Republican primary, more than 1,250,000.  National political observers said that independents went Republican on Tuesday in huge numbers; and that Republicans turned out big … a lot of Democrats stayed home.
• ALASKA UPSET:  Perhaps the biggest news of the day last Tuesday was the apparent upset of Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who outspent her Sarah Palin and Tea Party backed opponent 20-to-1 … the outcome to be decided this week by absentee ballots.
• Also on Tuesday, the North Carolina State Board of Elections fined Democratic Gov. Perdue $30,000 for failing to disclose 42 private airplane flights in a timely manner.
• Wake County DA Colon Willoughby is reviewing the records to see if any further action is warranted.  Listen for the roar of airplane engines in those political ads this fall.
• DISSENTION IN THE DEMOCRATIC RANKS: The State Employees Association of North Carolina (SEANC) picketed the home of Ken Eudy, former head of the state Democratic Party, during a fundraiser last week for the state Senate Democratic Caucus.  According to Tom Campbell with NCSPIN, there were more uninvited protestors than invited guests.
• Campbell also reported that another NC Senate Caucus fundraiser in Linville was attended by mostly Appalachian State University folks … and that both Senators Marc Basnight and David Hoyle were reportedly pessimistic about the fall elections.
  

As if last week’s news wasn’t bad enough, now, Gallup makes two major political announcements on Monday: the GOP’s record-breaking lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot question, and, Gallup announced on Monday that Republicans have a 25-point lead over Democrats when it comes to voters who are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall … the largest advantage of the year.

Republicans are poised to take the US House this fall; not as likely to take the US Senate … the opportunities just are not there.  However, here in North Carolina, Republicans have their best shot since 1994 of winning a majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly.

Coming soon to the John Davis Political Report:  Investors Political Daily.  This new feature will highlight free-market candidates who will win IF you will invest in their candidacy.  I will also keep a running count of where both parties are in the battle for the legislative majority.

WEBSITE REMODELING NEAR COMPLETION – LOOK FOR LABOR DAY LAUNCH

When you finish this report, take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts and you will see two changes:

• First, I have consolidated the two campaign finance variables … mid-year “Cash on Hand” of all candidates by party along with “Party Fundraising.”  I did this because historically candidates who do not need all of their money pass it on to the party who uses it to help other party candidates.  Ultimately, it’s all the same war chest.
• However, knowing the importance of the financial advantage in a campaign, I quadrupled the weight of the combined fundraising in the algorithm. No other variable weighs more.
• Finally, I have added the NC Obama “Job Approval” variable.  After pouring over polls all last week, it became very clear that this election is a referendum on President Obama.  This variable is tripled in the “Late Breaking Trends” algorithm.

Well, there you have it.  The week began with North Carolina Republicans continuing their partisan political advantage … by 16 points in the Senate chart, and by 12 points in the House chart.  All else being equal, the Republican momentum going into the General Election races adds 8 points to GOP state Senate candidates and 6 points to GOP state house candidates.  Remember, momentum translates into enthusiasm which translates into money and volunteers and fired-up candidates.  It’s the winning difference in close races.

Thanks again for reading and listening to the John Davis political report.

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“I understand that intellectually,” said Obama, “but this is my life and career.  And I think I could probably do every job on the campaign better than the people I’ll hire to do it.”^[1] David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, The Audacity to Win, 2009

Post: August 27, 2010, by John Davis

HOW WILL OBAMA’S FALL FROM FAVOR IMPACT NC’s RACES IN 2010

Have you ever been turned off by one of those cocky conservatives … one of those sanctimonious know-it-alls who behave as if their notions of what’s best for our state and nation should be enacted with righteous indifference to the will of the governed?  I thought you might have.  So now you know why the country is mad at President Barack Obama … and why North Carolina Democrats are likely to pay dearly this fall.

President Obama’s job approval is at record lows because he comes across like a sanctimonious know-it-all who thinks his left-of-center notions of what’s best for our nation should be enacted with righteous indifference to the will of the governed … most of whom are either conservative or moderate.

According to a study of national ideological identity released by Gallup earlier this month, “Americans are much more likely to identify themselves politically as conservative than as liberal in 49 of 50 states.^[ii] On average, conservatives outnumber liberals by about 20 percentage points across all states. Only in the District of Columbia and Rhode Island did liberals outnumber conservatives during the first half of 2010.

The Gallup study shows that 42% of respondents this year said that they are either “conservative” or “very conservative.”  Only 20% have told Gallup they are “liberal,” with 35% of Americans say they are “moderate.”  It’s no wonder that President Obama, the highest ranked liberal member of the U.S. Senate before winning a set of keys to the Oval Office, is struggling with high negative job approval numbers.

In his book, The Audacity to Win, President Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe writes about Obama’s “substantial ego,” recalling their first meeting in Chicago back in 2004.  He was trying to persuade Obama of the importance of allowing campaign professionals to run his U.S. Senate campaign.  “You just have to let go and trust,” Plouffe told him.  “I understand that intellectually,” said Obama, “but this is my life and career.  And I think I could probably do every job on the campaign better than the people I’ll hire to do it.”^[iii]

Sound familiar?  That’s why he is in trouble with the American public, and hurting the chances of Democrats in North Carolina this fall.  He acts as if he and the other 20% of the “liberal” voters in America know better how to solve the problems of the day than the 80% who are either conservative or moderate.

What about North Carolina … our ideological identity?  Well, according to Gallup, “Liberals” total only 16% as of mid-year 2010; “Conservatives” total 43%; “moderates” total 37%.  Looking only at the all-important Unaffiliated voters, now numbering 1.44 million in our state … nearly one in four of all voters … only 15% are “Liberals,” with 41% saying they are  “Conservatives” and with “moderates” totaling another 41%.  These are the folks who carried the state for Obama and Perdue and Hagan in 2008 … they kept the Democrats in the drivers seat.

Chris Hayes, Senior Legislative Analyst with the John W. Pope Civitas Institute in Raleigh is doing a politically invaluable four-part study of North Carolina’s “Unaffiliated” voters in a series titled, “Analyzing the State Legislative District Polling.”^[iv] In Part 3 of the series, subtitled “The Obama Effect,” Hayes makes the following startling comparison of Obama’s favorability ratings among “Unaffiliated” voters in North Carolina today as compared to 2008:

“In an October 2008 Civitas poll, weeks before the presidential election, Obama’s favorability rating with Unaffiliated voters was +15 (54% favorable, 39% unfavorable).  But in just under two years time, the tables have turned.  In a Civitas August 2010 poll of Unaffiliated voters, Obama’s favorability rating had fallen to -7 (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable).  Obama has suffered a net loss of 22 percentage points in his favorability rating and his prospects for recovery do not seem to be improving,” concludes Hayes.

Imagine running Down East this fall as a Democrat.  Does anyone really believe that those conservative Eastern North Carolina yellow-dog Democrats … formerly AKA Jessecrats … are just going to roll over like trained puppies and support the party’s candidates after being insulted time and again by the indifference of this White House to their notions of what’s right?  Many of those Down East legislative districts that have always elected Democrats are now in play.

President Obama still has a chance to minimize the negative impact his fall from favor is having on the political fortunes of North Carolina Democrats.  First, he must accept the fact that you can’t do as you please in a nation founded on the principle of respect for the “consent of the governed.”  Second, he must accept the fact that conservatives outnumber liberals by statistically significant margins in 49 of the 50 states … and that nationally and here in the old North State, 80% of us are not liberal.

Well, there you have it, now you know why the country is mad at President Barack Obama … and why North Carolina Democrats are likely to pay dearly this fall.

Thank you for reading … and listening to … the John Davis Political Report.

^[i] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, Viking Press, Pg. 8.

^[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/141677/Wyoming-Mississippi-Utah-Rank-Conservative-States.aspx#2

^[iii] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, Viking Press, Pg. 8.

^[iv] Analyzing the State Legislative District Polling, The Obama Effect, by Chris Hayes, Senior Legislative Analyst, Civitas.

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“North Carolina Republicans have an asset this year Democrats don’t have: Tom Fetzer.^[i] Democratic consultant Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, The Fetzer Factor, April 7, 2010

Post: August 24, 2010, by John Davis

DEMOCRATIC LEADERS IN CRISIS – A STORM SURGE THREATENS

North Carolina Democrats have been successful for decades because of leadership, unity, and the willingness to work hard to raise the money needed to keep the majority in the state Senate and House … as well as the majority on the Council of State.  This year, an anti-establishment storm surge is threatening their shores.  However, a stormy election year is not new.  They have survived many of those.  What is new is that at a time that they need strong leadership the most, many of their leaders are embroiled in one crisis after another.

EMBATTLED STATE BOARD OF ELECTIONS FINES PERDUE $30,000 TODAY: Today, the Democratic-led North Carolina State Board of Elections met in Asheville to consider evidence that Democratic Gov. Perdue cheated on her campaign finance reports by failing to disclose 42 private airplane flights in a timely manner.  Ruling: She was fined $30,000 for failure to report the 42 campaign flights on private aircraft.  Former Democratic Gov. Mike Easley has already been fined $100,000 for breaking the rules with regards to reporting private flights.  Ironically, the Democratic Chairman of the State Board of Elections is being accused of interjecting himself improperly into a staff investigation of Gov. Perdue’s campaign reporting, and the Democratic Executive Director of the State Board of Elections is under scrutiny for allowing his partisan bias to influence his decisions in the Perdue case.  All in all, a political nightmare.

SEANC PROTESTING AT NC SENATE FUNDRAISER TONIGHT:  Tonight, the State Employees Association of North Carolina (SEANC) will be picketing outside the home of Ken Eudy, former head of the state Democratic Party, who is hosting a fundraiser for the state Senate Democratic Caucus.  SEANC has accused Eudy, CEO of a PR firm named Capstrat, of “pay-to-play” politics, for having received millions of dollars in state contracts.

NC DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIRMAN DAVID YOUNG UNDER FIRE:  Meanwhile, according to Tom Campbell in last week’s NC SPIN online report, current state Democratic Party Chairman David Young, “… has been relegated to the back seat because of the internal grumbling about his low-profile performance and the lack of any type of aggressive communication effort.”^[i] Campbell writes that a coordinate campaign for the fall is being headed up by others to pick up the slack.  Not good folks.

Young also faced criticism back home in Asheville in May because of a complaint about orange-colored water in a mobile home park he owns in Weaverville.  The Asheville Citizen-Times columnist John Boyle scolded Young in a May 27 commentary titled, Time for David Young to do the right thing, saying, “You’ve been a politician for two decades, and you head the party that stakes a claim to helping the least affluent among us. And this is how you treat the people who live in your trailer park?”  Ouch!

NC GOP CHAIRMAN TOM FETZER A “HEAT-SEEKING MISSILE”

While Young struggles to get his footing during his first election year as the head of the NC Democratic Party, Tom Fetzer, new head of the NC Republican Party, is getting high marks for successes in uniting the party, raising money, and driving the Democrats nuts.  Fetzer’s modus operandi is best described as an unrelenting, in-your-face, attack-dog style of partisan combat.

Even long-time Democratic consultant Gary Pearce has been complimentary of Fetzer’s performance as GOP chairman.  In April, Pearce wrote in his blog titled Talking About Politics, “North Carolina Republicans have an asset this year Democrats don’t have: Tom Fetzer.^[ii] Pearce noted that Fetzer was going around the state like a “heat-seeking missile,” while his Democratic counterpart is “clearly not comfortable playing the role of political hit man.”

THE STORM SURGE IS IN THE DETAILS

When you finish this report, take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts and you can clearly see the storm surge that threatens Democrats this fall.

• Aug. 23: Gallup says Obama’s weekly “job approval” average at a new low of 43%, and that this is his first weekly average “job disapproval” above 50%.
• “If Perdue’s numbers continue to be this poor, she will likely be a drag on Democratic legislative candidates this fall,” said Tom Jensen with Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling in April.  According to today’s POLLSTER.COM,  Perdue’s rolling average “unfavorable” is 40%; “favorable 33.3%.^[iii]
• Economic conditions are perceived as “Excellent/Good” by only 12% of Americans.
• Shakeup in the NC Senate Caucus has resulted in the departure of Sen. Basnight’s closest allies and savviest political generals.  Add the eight retirements in the Senate Democratic Caucus and you can readily see an unprecedented degree of difficulty in 2010.
• Senate Republicans are at virtual parity in mid-year Cash-on-Hand, reporting $2.4 million Cash-on-Hand to $2.5 for all Democratic candidates.
• House Republicans have the strongest and most disciplined tag-team in memory, with Minority Leader Skip Stam sharing the war duties with Minority Whip Thom Tillis.
• Republicans have stolen Obama’s playbook and say they will not be beat in early voting turnout.
• Democratic fundraising prowess is weakened by three things:  the economy, the intense investigations into campaign finance violations, and … everyone is hedging their bets.
• Loyalty dies as power wanes.  Remember, in politics, there are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends.

But most of all, what is truly different about North Carolina politics as we near the Labor Day kickoff of the fall campaigns, is that at a time the Democrats need strong leadership the most, many of their top leaders are embroiled in one crisis after another.  You can handle a political storm surge provided you have strong leaders.  Without leaders, you’re in a whole lot of trouble.

Thank you for reading … and listening to … the John Davis Political Report.

[i] http://www.ncspin.com August 19, 2010 post

[ii] Talking About Politics, The Fetzer Factor, Posted April 7, 2010

[iii] http://www.pollster.com/polls/nc/fav-perdue.php

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Democratic operatives trying to raise money for expensive ad campaigns report that the wealthy liberals (and, to some extent, labor unions) who wrote huge checks to independent groups for advertising campaigns in the past three election cycles, are sitting on their wallets.” Politico, “GOP outside cash has Dems scrambling,” 8/20/2010

Post: August 20, 2010, by John Davis

WEEK IN REVIEW: This week ended as it began, with Republicans enjoying favorable political winds in their sails.  On Tuesday, I pointed out that “underemployment” … which includes Americans who are unemployed and those who are working part-time but wanting full-time work … is over 18%.  Among Americans without college degrees, 23% are underemployed. Among young people in the 18-to-29-year-old age range, underemployment is at 28%.  But the most startling number is this:  almost 4 in 10 of the youngest of the young voters … those 18-to-24 years old … are underemployed.  Those voters, who were filled with enthusiasm in 2008 because of the inspiring campaign of President Obama, are now disenchanted.

Compounding the negative political fallout for Democrats of high “underemployment” is a lack of job security among those who are employed.  According  to a new study released by Gallup this week, almost 40% of those who are employed are worried that their benefits will be reduced; one in four are worried that they will be laid off or have to accept a cut in pay.

“UNDEREMPLOYMENT” TAKEAWAY: “Underemployed” voters, along with those who lack job security, are going to do one of two things on Election Day this November:  not vote or vote against the establishment … Democrats.

OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL PLUMMETING: Other new numbers this week that bode ill for Democrats include President Obama’s job approval.   According to Real Clear Politics, a website that keeps a rolling average of all national polls during the previous two weeks, Obama’s job approval reached a weekly average low of only 44%.  Today, Friday, August 20, Gallup has Obama’s job approval at a three-day rolling average of only 41%, with 52% of Americans disapproving.

It’s no wonder that we are also seeing enthusiasm trending more favorably for Republicans than Democrats. This week, 44% of Republicans told Gallup that they were very enthusiastic about voting this fall. Among Democrats, only 28% said they were very enthusiastic.

WEALTHY LIBERALS SITTING ON WALLETS: According to a story in today’s Politico, “GOP outside cash has Dems scrambling,” the Democratic Party’s lack of enthusiasm is a donor phenomenon as well.[i] “Democratic operatives trying to raise money for expensive ad campaigns report that the wealthy liberals (and, to some extent, labor unions) who wrote huge checks to independent groups for advertising campaigns in the past three election cycles, are sitting on their wallets.”  The article attributes the decline in liberal money to the “lingering recession,” the “absence of a single unifying enemy” like President George W. Bush, disenchantment with the Obama political operation, and tension between the White House and organized labor.

Politico writer Kenneth Vogel notes that 7-out-of-10 of the largest and most successful independent Democratic-leaning groups from the past three election cycles are behind in their fundraising … “some by a wide margin.”

NC DEMOCRATS AND LABOR FEUDING OVER PAY-TO-PLAY POLITICS: The growing tension between organized labor and the White House became very apparent in Arkansas in June, when unions spent $3.1 million trying to defeat White House-backed US Sen. Blanche Lincoln … because she didn’t support their agenda on health care.  After being criticized by the White House for their failed effort to defeat Lincoln, AFL-CIO spokesman Eddie Vale said, “Labor isn’t an arm of the Democratic Party.”[ii] Those are feuding words.

We have seen similar tension grow this year between organized labor in North Carolina and the state Democratic Party.  SEANC, the state employees association … an affiliate of the Service Employees International Union, worked with SEIU to create a new political party called North Carolina First.  Why?  To teach the state’s three conservative Democratic US Congressmen a lesson … because they voted against the union position on Obama’s healthcare bill.

Historically, it is Republicans who have diluted their political effectiveness with internal feuding. This year it’s the Democrats. This week we saw evidence of that split in the Democratic Party when Dana Cope, head of SEANC, attacked former state party chairman Ken Eudy for “pay to play” politics … because Eudy, who has received numerous lucrative state contracts, is planning a fundraiser at his home featuring NC Senate Democratic Caucus leaders.

NC SENATE MARTIN NESBITT SAID: About the accusation of “pay-to-play” impropriety, Senate Majority Leader Martin Nesbitt from Buncombe County said, “You can’t deny someone the right to participate in politics simply because they do business with the state.”  I agree with Sen. Nesbitt.  But I also think he should have added the following sentence: “You can deny someone business with the state if they don’t participate in Democratic Party fundraisers.”

DEMOCRATS HAVE TOUGHER HILL TO CLIMB: Democrats are masters at using the leverage of power to gain the financial advantage necessary to win close races in years when the political winds favor Republicans. But this year their challenges are far greater. They have lost their old warrior general in former Senator Tony Rand, and six members of their caucus retired leaving novice candidates in Republican-friendly territories … like the seats being vacated by Sen. Hoyle from Gaston County, Sen. Bozeman from New Hanover County, and Sen. RC Soles from Columbus County.

Several others in the Senate Democratic Caucus are seriously threatened … including four in seats once held by Republicans like Sen. John Snow from Cherokee County, Sen. Joe Sam Queen from Haywood County, Sen. Steve Goss from Watauga County and Sen. Tony Foriest  from Alamance County.

All in all, if the political trends continue the Republican friendly track of this week, we just may see Republicans make history in November with the takeover of the state senate and house.

Thanks for reading … and listening to … the John Davis Political Report.

[i] http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=8C2FC588-18FE-70B2-A8D1B9A2F56EB579

[ii] http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0610/AFL_to_White_House_Labor_isnt_an_arm_of_the_Democratic_Party.html