The fact is, the Democratic dynasty was already near collapse in 2010 and 2012. The Democratic structural and organizational underpinnings were rotted with corruption, infighting, neglect and diminishing political battlefield competence, making them a very vulnerable political enemy.
Rule #10: No Matter How Often You Read it, the Tortoise Wins and the Hare Loses. Slow and steady is the final key to longevity.
This report is the final in a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism
- Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule”
- Rule #9: If it’s tied, it’s Turnout. If it’s Turnout, it’s Technology
Today, I am adding Rule #10: No Matter How Often You Read it, the Tortoise Wins and the Hare Loses. Slow and steady is the final key to longevity.
May 8, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 10 3:13 pm
This 10-part series on the keys to Republican political longevity began on January 11, 2013, with the caution: don’t create political opportunities for the Democrats by making yourself vulnerable, and the best way to make yourself vulnerable is to think you are not vulnerable.
The greatest source of a sense of invulnerability is pride, the deadliest of the seven deadly sins.
For instance, pride would have Republicans believe that it was their superior might, savvy and ability as political combatants that vanquished the unbeatable foe, the North Carolina Democrats, in 2010 and 2012. If that was the whole story, why did it take the GOP 114 years to defeat them?
The fact is, the Democratic dynasty was already near collapse in 2010 and 2012. The Democratic structural and organizational underpinnings were rotted with corruption, infighting, neglect and diminishing political battlefield competence, making them a very vulnerable political enemy.
Compounding the political instability of North Carolina Democrats was President Obama, who weakened Democrats to the breaking point of defeat all over the United States by racing ahead of the wishes of voters with his own public policy agenda. During his first term, Obama was like the hare in The Tortoise and the Hare, ignoring the value of plodding along patiently with respect for the priorities of most Americans: jobs and the economy.
North Carolina Democrats never seemed to realize that they were creating major breakthrough political opportunities for Republicans by making themselves vulnerable with:
- A 10-year rash of embarrassing criminal indictments that scared off loyal contributors;
- Legislative caucuses that drifted so far left of center that they threatened business leaders;
- Leaders who hogged the glory and ignored the need for a new generation of strong state leaders;
- Standing with President Obama and his personal agenda against the voters and their agenda;
- Buying elections year after year with obligatory loyalty from resentful contributors.
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. It makes you think you are not vulnerable.
Today, Republicans are the ones with the absolute power in North Carolina. They, like the hare in The Tortoise and the Hare, risk becoming vulnerable by racing so fast to the public policy finish line that they lose sight of the need to bring the voters along with them. Without the support of North Carolina voters, Republican leaders, like Obama, will cause their party a world of hurt.
So, how do you avoid the corrupting influence of absolute power? First, you move at a slow and steady pace that allows for an exchange of information, concerns and ideas with voters locally around the state.
One of the best examples of effective management of sensitive public policy matters by bringing voters along with you is how Senate and House Republican leaders managed reapportionment of legislative and congressional districts. They presented their plans to the public, allowing voters to express their concerns at open forums like local public libraries and community colleges.
Take a look at the list of public hearings and the locations held by the Joint House and Senate Redistricting Committees. Over 100 opportunities for public input were scheduled during the months of April, May, June and July, 2011, for the convenience of North Carolina voters.
The second means of avoiding the corrupting influence of absolute power is to keep yourself humble by surrounding yourself with mementos of past mistakes.
I learned that transformative political lesson in 1979 from a banker in Mississippi.
His name was Bob Hearin. He was the wealthiest man in the state. President and majority stockholder of First National Bank in Jackson.
He was also the most reclusive man in the state.
Despite his great wealth, Bob worked in a drab office cluttered with odd, out-of-place items like rusty machine parts on dusty bookshelves with a small stack of old bricks piled loosely on the floor. A weathered wooden sign leaned against a dingy wall.
It would take weeks for me to finally get up the nerve to ask, “Mr. Hearin, what is all of this junk scattered around your office?”
Unlike most bank presidents, Bob Hearin was so intensely private that no one my age knew what he looked like. We had only seen a picture on the front page of the state’s largest newspaper, The Clarion-Ledger, in the annual article about the “Ten Wealthiest Mississippians.”
Each morning, except Thursdays, Mr. Hearin drove to his downtown Jackson office at First National Bank, the second largest bank in the state, where he would spend the day managing his varied business interests. Each afternoon he left the bank promptly at 3 o’clock and drove out to his farm where he fed his cows from the back of his pickup truck.
In addition to banking, he was a principal stockholder in Amerada Hess, an oil exploration and production company listed on the NYSE and headquartered in New York City, and, at one time, part-owner of the New York Jets.
On Thursdays he flew to New York City in his private jet to meet with his business partner Leon Hess, founder of Amerada Hess and owner of the New York Jets. He always made it back to Jackson in time to feed the cows.
It was because he was so reclusive, that the state’s business and political establishment was shocked when he agreed to serve in the high-profile role as finance chair of Lt. Gov. Evelyn Gandy’s campaign for governor of the Magnolia State. He was returning a favor.
The reason that I know all of this is because I was Evelyn Gandy’s Campaign Manager. I had the unique privilege of meeting with Mr. Hearin daily to discuss campaign finances.
The first day I met with Bob Hearin I was nervous. His personal secretary, Dixie, greeted me with businesslike hospitality at the elevator of the dimly lit and noticeably quiet executive suite. She led me to Mr. Hearin’s office. He immediately came to the door and welcomed me with a warm smile and sincere handshake.
I was surprised by Mr. Hearin’s friendliness; perhaps I expected an old curmudgeon. I was also surprised at his threadbare dark blue suit and his overall disheveled appearance.
The office décor was sparse, more like what you would see in a bus station waiting room rather than in the inner sanctum of the wealthiest man in the state. And then, there were those odd items all around the office. “What were they all about,” I thought curiously.
Over the next several weeks I became increasingly comfortable with Mr. Hearin during our daily meetings. Eventually, we began to talk about things other than the campaign. That was when I learned about his cows and his other business interests and his Thursdays in New York City.
The day finally came when I had the courage to ask him about the odd items in his office. “Mr. Hearin,” I began cautiously, “What is all of this junk scattered around your office?”
His eyes darted from object to object, finally resting on the small stack of bricks. “Those are mementos,” he began pensively, “of every bad loan I have ever made.”
I was stunned.
“See those bricks,” he continued, “I lost over $250,000 on a loan to the company that made those bricks.” He then nodded towards the rusty machine parts, “See those machine parts on the shelf? I lost $100,000 on that bad loan.”
One after another Mr. Hearin pointed out mementos of loans gone bad. Treasured mementos of mistakes. Always in sight. Never to be forgotten. Never to be repeated.
This transformative lesson is particularly valuable in North Carolina politics, the newest of the presidential swing states. The perfectly level political battlefield where there are no permanent partisan advantages. Where nothing can be taken for granted.
In North Carolina politics, you can go from invincible to vulnerable overnight. And no political leader or group is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
Rule #10: No Matter How Often You Read it, the Tortoise Wins and the Hare Loses. Slow and steady is the final key to longevity.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
PS: A new 10-part series highlighting key rules for How North Carolina Democrats Can Recover Political Power will begin the first week in June. Send me your ideas: www.johndavisconsulting.com
SPRING SPECIAL $199: If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription only $199 during our Spring Special promotion. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are: Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors Rule #3: Keep your
[More…]
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism
- Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule”
Today I am adding Rule #9: If it’s tied, it’s Turnout. If it’s Turnout, it’s Technology. North Carolina is tied politically and will be tied for the foreseeable future.
April 24, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 9 8:13 pm
Charlotte, one of the nation’s fastest growing cities of 298 square miles, now has more people than the State of Alaska, which has 586,412 square miles. Alaska has a population of about 730,000 people. Charlotte has a population of 750,000. There are more people in the Charlotte Metropolitan Area than in the states of Wyoming, Vermont, North Dakota and Alaska combined.
The Triangle is also one of the country’s fastest growing metropolitan areas. As to political muscle, Raleigh’s Wake County and Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County cast a combined total of 934,265 votes in the 2012 General Election, the same total as the least populated 61 of North Carolina’s 100 counties.
I say all of this to amplify the most startling fact from the 2012 elections: only about half of the state’s voters are native North Carolinians. According to the March 2013 North Carolina Data-Net, “… barely half of the state’s voters were native North Carolinians. Forty-nine percent [49%] were born elsewhere.”
Why should the growth of new urban voters matter to Republicans? Because the study shows that those who moved to North Carolina in the last 5-to-10 years voted for Obama by 62% over Romney’s 38%.
In just 20 years, our voter rolls have grown from 3.4 million to 6.4 million. That growth rate is projected to continue for decades, steadily shrinking the percentage of native North Carolina voters.
As to the impact of our growth on partisan politics, the Republican share is also steadily shrinking.
In 2006, North Carolina registered Republicans numbered 35% of the 5.5 million voters. By 2010, the Republican share of all registered voters was down to 32% of 6.2 million voters. Today, April 24, 2013, North Carolina Republicans number only 30.8% of 6,624,136 voters.
While the combined total of voters in Wake and Mecklenburg counties have grown by 140% since 1993, Democrats have dropped from 53% of the total to 43%, while Republicans have dropped from 36% to only 28%. Unaffiliated voters have grown from 11% to 29% of the Wake/Mecklenburg total.
Republicans have all of the political power in the state and that means a competitive advantage. However, power has a way of distorting perceptions of reality. Numbers are a reality check.
The reality is that North Carolina is virtually tied politically; a swing state with a level battlefield that favors neither party. Most of the projected growth is in urban counties where the GOP is losing ground.
Don’t bring TV ads to a turnout fight
You’ve heard the old caution, “Don’t bring a knife to a gunfight.” In today’s world of breaking ties in political races, that adage could be written, “Don’t bring TV ads to a turnout fight.”
The 2012 presidential race was tied the entire year. An astounding 97% of likely voters knew whether they were going to vote for or against President Obama the entire fall.
There were very few persuadable voters. You were either going to vote for Obama or not. Period.
Real Clear Politics has compiled a list of 202 national polls conducted from January through November last year that pinned voters down on their voting intentions.
- Not 1 of 35 national polls conducted from Oct 1 to Nov 6, 2012 showed Obama above 50%
- Obama’s average support was 48.8% out of 202 polls; Romney’s average support was 48.1%
- 48.8% plus 48.1% equals 96.9%, leaving only 3.1% of all likely voters undecided
In mid-2011, the Obama camp saw that the race was tied, and that the trend line was flat and likely to hold both candidates just below the winning 50% mark all the way to the finish line. They surmised that a tied race could best be won by getting more of their voters to vote by investing $100 million in data mining and turnout technology.
The brightest Republican consultants surmised that they could break the tie by spending hundreds of millions of TV ad dollars persuading voters that Obama was awful. What they overlooked was the fact that there were very few persuadable voters, and the fact that the Romney vote was unenthusiastic and needed extra prodding to get them to the polls. Romney needed a competitive turnout operation.
Obama’s Strategic Advantage over Romney and GOP Superstars
After reading numerous accounts of how Obama’s Chicago team built a turnout advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstars like Karl Rove, it is clear that it was the investment in technology and an analytics team that broke the tie and won the race.
Read Time’s story, Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win, and you will discover that Jim Messina, Obama’s Campaign Manager, invested $100 million in technology and analytics software. He hired a team of techies five times the size of the 2008 operations group, the group that shattered all voter registration and turnout records.
These data-mining geeks worked in secret in a remote corner of the HQ in Chicago for 18 months, “creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.” The Obama megafile allowed the campaign:
- To predict the types of people who would be persuaded by specific messages
- To rank their target lists for unique actions in order of persuadability (register; donate)
- To predict the types of people who would more likely give money online or by mail
- To predict the types of people who would volunteer, and for what type of work
- To raise a record $1 billion war chest
- To register 3 million new voters and turn out voters in swing states in record numbers
Another Time magazine story, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters, revealed how the Obama campaign used technology to overcome the challenge of turning out young voters who did not have a land-line phone.
- 85% of Obama’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 with no listed phone number were found via a Facebook Friends app
- 1 million Obama backers used the app on Facebook, permitting the Chicago HQ analytics geeks to look at their Facebook Friends
- 600,000 Obama supporters used the Facebook app to persuade 5 million of their Facebook Friends to register, contribute and/or vote
- Obama team registered 1.8 million new voters door-to-door; 1.1 million online
Chicago-based data analytics geeks gave President Barack Obama his margin of victory by identifying a powerful new means of “door-to-door contact” by friends: Facebook Friends apps on smartphones and tablets. Friends were contacting friends using texting and social media; the new knock at the door.
North Carolina’s dramatic growth from 3.4 million voters to 6.4 million voters in 20 years has yielded the startling fact that only about half of the state’s voters are natives. That same growth has created a partisan political tie.
Merely making voter registration and turnout a priority is no longer enough. It must be the priority.
Rule #9: If it’s tied, it’s Turnout. If it’s Turnout, it’s Technology. North Carolina is tied politically and will be tied for the foreseeable future.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report! John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
“It turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
NY Times, 3/26/2013, regarding Pres. Obama’s new Organizing for Action “Social Welfare” organization
March 27, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 8 11:13 pm
It’s time we put principle aside and do what’s right!
On June 19, 2008, Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama created a firestorm among liberal campaign finance reformers by breaking his pledge to limit his campaign spending to public funds. Obama chose to put the practical value of a campaign spending advantage over personal principle. He knew that in order to win, he had to Obey the Golden Rule of Politics: Those with the most gold rule.
Obama’s decision to put principal aside freed him to raise an unlimited amount of money. Republican nominee John McCain opted to shackle himself to public financing. When the final campaign spending totals were tallied, the FEC reported that Obama had raised $745 million to McCain’s $368 million.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans.
David Plouffe, campaign manager for President Obama’s 2008 victory, in writing about the decision to opt out of public financing in his book The Audacity to Win, said, “Sacrificing this added cash would mean we either had to pare our list of target battlegrounds or run less rigorous campaigns in each.”
One of those target battlegrounds was North Carolina. If Obama had put principle over money and opted out of public financing in 2008, he would not have carried North Carolina and Beverly Purdue would not have been governor.
North Carolina was Obama’s closest win (14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast). Perdue’s win was the closest governors race in the U.S., despite her 2-to-1 spending advantage over McCrory ($14.9 million to his $6.7 million) and despite a historic Democratic turnout thanks to Obama’s state organization.
“Staying in the federal system would seriously impede our ability to mount that kind of campaign that left no stone unturned,” wrote Plouffe, “I thought if we opted out of the system, we would also enjoy a significant financial advantage over McCain.” He was right.
In 2008, the Obama campaign raised $782 million (McCain $368 million), employed 6,000 staffers who managed 13 million volunteers. In September alone, Obama raised $100 million online. “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,” said Plouffe.
When it comes to principle versus money in politics, ignore the protests of the press and the outrage of the campaign finance reformers; put principle aside and do what’s right: raise money.
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
Today, I am adding Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule.”
NC Republicans are only half-way to financial dominance; President Obama points the way to the other half
Thanks to excellent research and analysis of 2012 campaign finances by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, we can now say for certain that North Carolina Republicans have learned well from Democrats and are following their precedent in valuing political financial dominance.
- Republican Senate candidates raised about $11.3 million to only $3.7 million for Democratic Senate candidates, a 3-to-1 GOP advantage in 2012 that led to a 33 to 17 Senate majority.
- Republican House candidates raised $12.9 million to $5.3 million for the Democrats, a 2-to-1 GOP advantage in 2012 that led to a 77 to 43 House majority.
- Republican Gov. Pat McCrory raised $11.2 million to $4.3 million for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Walter Dalton, a 2012 advantage that led to a 55% to 43% victory.
Granted, reports like these make it clear that North Carolina Republicans are well on their way to establishing political financial dominance. However, they are only halfway there. The other half of political financial dominance is the establishment of 501 (c) (4) “social welfare” nonprofit groups that may raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to advance their legislative agenda.
Once again, Republicans have an excellent model thanks to President Obama.
Obama’s campaign organization, Organizing for America, has morphed into a new advocacy machine called Organizing for Action. OFA is run by former campaign operatives, like Jim Messina, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, and pledges to “support the legislative agenda we voted on, train the next generation of grassroots organizers and leaders, and organize around local issues in our communities.”
Sound like something of political value to North Carolina Republicans? Keeping your political organization fine-tuned as an IRS approved “social welfare” organization? Training the next generation of grassroots organizers and leaders? Unlimited shadow funding?
Raise $2 million and you can be on Obama’s board
On Tuesday, March 26, 2013, The New York Times carried a story about Organizing for Action stating, “In addition to the previously reported “board of trustees” whose members are expected to raise at least $500,000, it turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
What are they going to do with all of that money?
According to Organizing for Action’s statement of purpose, they are established to:
- “Support President Obama in achieving enactment of his national agenda.”
- Form grassroots level chapters that will also work for “progressive change on a range of issues at the state and local level.”
- All while operating as a “social welfare” organization” under IRS Code 501(c)(4).
Fred Wertheimer, head of Democracy 21 and a leading national voice for campaign finance reform, described the OFA as “an unprecedented entity that allows individual donors and bundlers to provide unlimited amounts of money to an organization functioning as an arm of the Obama presidency.”
If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
By 2015, voters born from 1982 – 1995 will be a full third of the voting population. North Carolina Republicans can secure their political longevity and create a model for the rest of the nation if they follow Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
Rule #7: Welcome Young Voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism; not “Come as we are” Closed Conservatism.
“I think this is a vast overreaction …,” Krauthammer told Bill O’Reilly, “He’s a leading Republican, obviously presidential timbre. He’s got the highest popularity of any governor and he’s in a blue state.”
Charles Krauthammer on CPAC’s snub of Republican Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey
March 13, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 7 3:13 pm
Come as we are or don’t come at all!
CPAC, the national Conservative Political Action Conference, is a classic example of why conservatives in general and Republicans in particular have a brand problem with America’s youngest voters.
CPAC is holding its annual meeting March 14 – 16 in Washington, DC. The theme is, America’s Future: The Next Generation of Conservatives, a worthy topic in light of the growing numbers of young Americans in the workplace and the voting booth.
- On average, 10,000 Baby Boomers retire every day.
- By 2015, the majority of the workforce in the U.S. will be in their 20s.
- By 2015, those born 1982 – 1995 will be a full third of the voting population.
CPAC welcomes all conservatives … ummm, unless you are one of the eight Republican governors, like Chris Christie of New Jersey, who favors expanding Medicaid for the poor. Then, you are demonized.
CPAC’s message to the “next generation of conservatives” is, come as we are or don’t come at all.
How can CPAC attract a new generation of young conservatives when they snub 8 Republican governors just because they decided that it was in their state’s best interest to take the Medicaid money? The eight governors are: NJ Gov. Chris Christie, VA Gov. Bob McDonnell, OH Gov. John Kasich, AZ Gov. Jan Brewer, FL Gov. Rick Scott, ND Gov. Jack Dalrymple, MI Gov. Rick Snyder, NM Gov. Susana Martinez, and NV Gov. Brian Sandoval.
Conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer told Bill O’Reilly, host of Fox News’ The O’Reilly Factor, that CPAC’s decision to snub NJ Gov. Chris Christie was a mistake. “I think this is a vast overreaction …,” Krauthammer said, “He’s a leading Republican, obviously presidential timbre. He’s got the highest popularity of any governor and he’s in a blue state.”
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
Today, I am adding Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
Lose young voters now, lose them forever
Since the 1950s, university and private think tank researchers have documented time and time again that once a voter establishes a partisan political identity they will remain true to that party for life.
Last year’s presidential race was the third in a row in which young voters favored the Democrat over the Republican. In 2004, John Kerry won the 18-29 year-old group by 9 points; in 2008, Barack Obama won the group by 34 points and by 23 points in 2012.
By way of partisan contrast, Ronald Reagan won 59% of 18-29 year olds in 1984. Those young Reagan conservatives are still conservative, and still more likely to vote Republican. However, they are now the keepers of a conservative litmus test nationally and here in North Carolina that Reagan could not pass.
Ronald Reagan would not have been welcomed to this weekend’s CPAC conference.
- California Gov. Reagan supported/expanded Medi-Cal, the nation’s largest Medicaid program
- Reagan raised taxes in an effort to balance the California budget (largest state tax ever)
- President Reagan increased the national debt from $700 billion to $3 trillion
- Reagan transformed America from a creditor to a debtor nation
From amnesty for illegal immigrants, to abortion, to gun laws to same-sex marriage, President Ronald Reagan would fail today’s conservative litmus test. Like the eight Republican governors shunned by CPAC, Reagan would not have been invited to their conference this weekend.
Republicans must accept the reality that today’s under-30 voters are the most ethnically and racially diverse and most socially tolerant voters in American history. More like Reagan.
According to Pew Research Center, young voters are “the only age group in which a majority said the government should do more to fix problems.”
That’s why young American voters are turned off by today’s “come as we are or don’t come at all” anti-government conservatives. They are too intolerant and judgmental … like old-school preachers.
Praise and Worship Services say “Come as you are” to young Christians
Republican social and economic conservative hardliners are as out of touch with the new Millennial generation of American voters as the traditional Christian church elders are with Millennial Christians.
A couple of decades ago, young Christians began to show signs that they no longer felt comfortable worshiping where you had to wear a starched shirt or a dressy dress to be accepted; where you had to sing old hymns and sit stoically and listen to judgmental sermons about sin and God’s wrath from pompous preachers. They quit going to traditional worship service.
American churches were startled into self-examination by the dramatic decline in the participation of young adults. New startup churches were attracting young Christians by the millions; small Praise and Worship groups were meeting in vacant storefront spaces. They came dressed in jeans; they sang new Christian songs popularized by Christian Praise and Worship bands and artists.
Rather than saying to the next generation of Christians, come as we are or don’t come at all, churches all over America created “Praise and Worship Services,” a contemporary way of worshiping separated from their traditional services. They installed projection equipment for the lyrics of the new Praise and Worship songs; they invested in sound systems for Praise and Worship bands. Most of all, the traditional churches embraced the new form of worship.
Young Christians started going back to traditional churches because the churches changed from a “come as we are” mentality to “come as you are.” United in Christianity; worshiping differently.
By 2015, voters born from 1982 – 1995 will be a full third of the voting population. North Carolina Republicans can secure their political longevity and create a model for the rest of the nation if they follow Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
Vive la Différence! Rule #6: Men Do Not Equal a Majority. How women defeated them in 31 of 40 NC statewide races since 2000; why women are the GOP’s best hope for political longevity. “The next time a Republican man wants to say something about a gender-sensitive issue, like rape or contraception or reproductive
[More…]
Vive la Différence! Rule #6: Men Do Not Equal a Majority. How women defeated them in 31 of 40 NC statewide races since 2000; why women are the GOP’s best hope for political longevity.
“The next time a Republican man wants to say something about a gender-sensitive issue, like rape or contraception or reproductive rights, he should test his views over the intercom system at the nearest Target. Anytime between 5:30 pm and 9:30 pm; when working women shop.
John Davis Political Report, February 14, 2013
Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 6 12:13 am EST
What better day to write about the relationship between women and men in politics. Valentine’s Day.
It’s the one day each year when the hostilities cease between those from Mars and those from Venus. The annual truce called so that we can safely go to Target to shop for that perfect Hallmark card. The one that says what we would say if we were stronger.
On Valentine’s Day, getting the words right is so important. In politics, getting the words right is important every day.
In 2012, Republicans lost two U.S. Senate races because the men didn’t get the words right when talking about gender sensitive issues like rape and abortion. One stated that a woman could not get pregnant if she was raped “legitimately.” The other suggested that rape just may be God’s will.
Karen Hughes, Counselor to President George W. Bush, had this to say to POLITICO after the 2012 elections: “If another Republican man says anything about rape other than it is a horrific, violent crime, I want to personally cut out his tongue. The college-age daughters of many of my friends voted for Obama because they were completely turned off by Neanderthal comments like the suggestion of ‘legitimate rape.’”
Two U.S. Senate races lost because the men didn’t get the words right. Neanderthal comments.
A presidential election lost because women were not persuaded that the Republican nominee was interested in their needs; that he supported government programs that would simplify their lives.
Texas Republican U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, one of the most seasoned political leaders and respected women in America, said in a post-Election Day interview with CNN’s Starting Point, “When we talk about women’s issues and the social issues, people have to stop acting like the woman is a throw-away here. We’ve got to talk to women about the issues they care about.”
Making ends meet during the worst economic recession since The Great Depression. Diversity of circumstances. Diversity celebrated. Not merely tolerated.
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
Today, I am adding Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority. How women defeated them in 31 of 40 North Carolina statewide races since 2000; why women are the GOP’s best hope for longevity.
NC Women Cast 485,606 More Votes than Men in 2012
Nationally, women accounted for 53% of all votes cast in 2012. Here in North Carolina, 55% of all voters in 2012 were women. According to the NC State Board of Elections:
- Registered women number 3,452,498 on NC’s voter roles; men number 2,899,554
- In 2012, 69.7% of women voters turned out to vote; men 66.8%
- Women cast 2,488,973 votes in 2012 (55%); men cast 2,003,367 (45%)
- Women cast 485,606 more votes than men in 2012
According to Gallup, women voted for Obama over Romney by 12 points; men voted for Romney over Obama by 8 points, creating a 20-point gender gap. That 20-point gap “is the largest Gallup has measured in a presidential election since it began compiling the vote by major subgroups in 1952.”
More politically significant than the gender gap is the marriage gap. Married women historically favor Republicans; single women favor Democrats.
In 2008, married women supported the Republican presidential nominee John McCain by 6 points, 53% to 47%; single women supported Obama by 32 points, 66% to 34%. “That provided him with a comfortable margin of victory,” notes John Zogby, veteran pollster and pundit, writing in Forbes.
In 2012, married women supported Mitt Romney by 6 points, 53% to 47%; single women supported Obama by 36 points, 68% to 32%. That’s a 42-point marriage gap.
Ruy Teixeira, noted political demographer with the Center for American Progress, estimates that unmarried women now represent 47% percent of all American women, up from 38% in 1970.
It’s no wonder Fox News commentators blamed Romney’s defeat on single women. They were right.
Women. Binders full of women. Legitimate rape. Getting the words right. Single women.
If you want to get the words right, go to Target not Talbots
So, how do you get the words right? Go to Target. Not Talbots.
Only women who can afford to shop at Talbots go to Talbots. However, those who can afford to shop at Talbots also shop at Target, along with every other women’s demographic from age and education to family status. Single and married women with and without children; women with high school diplomas and those with university degrees; shop clerks and judges. Liberals shopping with conservatives. Target.
Karen Katz, CEO of Neiman Marcus, said in an interview with Fast Company, that her favorite non-Neiman’s place to shop was Target. “I say it without any embarrassment: I love Target. They have a really beautiful way of blending inexpensive fashion with housewares and laundry detergent.”
In September 2012, a study by Insights in Marketing revealed which of 58 brands are doing the best job of marketing to women. Target was #3 of 58, just behind Dove and Amazon.
Why do women love Target? Because Target’s design strategy is to satisfy the needs of their guests, simplify their lives, make them feel great, at an affordable price for all. All women.
Should Republicans adopt a similar approach to rebranding the party for women voters? Satisfying needs? Simplifying lives? Making all women feel welcome?
The next time a Republican man wants to say something about a gender-sensitive issue, like rape or contraception or reproductive rights, he should test his views over the intercom system at the nearest Target. Anytime between 5:30 pm and 9:30 pm; when working women shop.
Odds are he will quickly conclude that his time at Target could be better spent … like at the greeting card aisle getting his sweetheart a Valentine’s Day card.
2012 a Historic Political Year for Women
Since election year 2000, there have been 40 statewide races in North Carolina that came down to a female candidate running against a male candidate in the General Election. Women won 31 of them, including the 6 of the 7 General Election races in 2012 between a woman and a man.
- Women won 6 of the 7 statewide NC races against men in 2012 (31 of 40 since 2000; 77.5%)
- 3 of NC’s 15-member DC delegation are women (Sen. Hagan; Reps. Foxx and Elmers)
- 4 of 7 members of the NC Supreme Court are women (Parker, Hudson, Jackson, Beasley)
- 6 of 15 on NC Court of Appeals are women (McGee, Bryant, Calabria, Geer, Stevens, Stroud)
- 5 of 9 members of the Council of State are women (Marshall, Cowell, Wood, Berry, Atkinson)
- 37 of 170 members of the NC General Assembly are women (16 R; 21 D)
- 20 US Senators are women (16 Democrats; 4 Republicans); highest ever
- 73 US House members are women (58 Democrats, 20 Republicans); highest ever
- 2 women combat veterans are now serving in the US House (Tammy Duckwork, Illinois; and Tulsi Gabbard, Hawaii). First ever.
Here is the list of all statewide General Election races in North Carolina since 2008 where women candidates defeated men.
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Beverly Perdue (D) v. Pat McCrory (R) |
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Beth Wood (D) v. Les Merritt (R) |
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Elaine Marshall (D) v. Jack Sawyer (R) |
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Superintendent of Public Instruction 2008 |
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June Atkinson (D) v. Richard Morgan (R) |
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Treasurer 2008 |
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Janet Cowell (D) v. Bill Daughtridge (R) |
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Court of Appeals Judge 2008 |
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Robert Hunter (D) v. Barbara Jackson (R) |
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Court of Appeals Judge 2010 |
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Martha Geer (D) v. Dean Poirier (R) |
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Elaine Marshall (D) v. Ed Goodwin (R) |
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Treasurer 2012 |
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Janet Cowell (D) v. Steve Royal (R) |
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Superintendent of Public Instruction 2012 |
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June Atkinson (D) v. John Tedesco (R) |
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John Brooks (D) v. Cherie Berry (R) |
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Court of Appeals Judge 2012 |
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Linda McGee (D) v. David Robinson (R) |
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Wanda Bryant (D) v. Marty McGee (R) |
Betsy Cochrane, from Clemmons, North Carolina, former GOP state Senator and first Republican woman to serve as Minority Leader (1985-1986), told me in an interview 10 years ago, “The biggest problem facing Republican women today is Republican men.” It’s still a big problem.
The problem? Republican men see women as a constituency to be patronized for political gain, a voting bloc to be exploited for conservative causes. That’s why they can’t get the words right.
Without the right words, Republicans will stagnate. Without the right words, most young women in America will never feel welcomed in the Republican Party. Threatened by conservative group think.
Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman and host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” participated on a panel on the future of conservatism at the National Review Institute summit last month. He said “everybody’s afraid to talk” about new ideas because of 30 years of top down conservative group think.
Peggy Noonan, speech writer for President Reagan and columnist with the Wall Street Journal, noted in her column about the National Review Institute event, that the “panel on the future of conservatism was smart and provocative, but it was composed of six men, no women.”
The next time Republican leaders are meeting privately about policy decisions, count the women in the room. That’s how you get the words right. And, if there is any doubt, try the intercom at Target.
Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority. How women defeated them in 31 of 40 North Carolina statewide races since 2000; why women are the GOP’s best hope for longevity.
Vive la Différence! And, Happy Valentine’s Day!
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
NC Supreme Court: 4 of 7 Seats Up in 2014. Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war Lady Justice may be blindfolded, and those scales she holds may be balanced, but if the case impacts the outcome of political races, Lady Justice will take that blindfold off to check the political party of the
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NC Supreme Court: 4 of 7 Seats Up in 2014. Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
Lady Justice may be blindfolded, and those scales she holds may be balanced, but if the case impacts the outcome of political races, Lady Justice will take that blindfold off to check the political party of the plaintiffs … then she will adjust the scales accordingly. John Davis Political Report, February 5, 2013
Tuesday, February 5, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 5 2:13 pm
When I saw today’s dramatic news that the North Carolina Senate Rules Committee had passed a bill out that would “effectively fire all members of the Utilities Commission, Environmental Management Commission, Coastal Resources Commission, Lottery Commission and Wildlife Resources Commission,” I saw a full-employment opportunity for state lawyers.
The Republican majority has a right to initiate radical reforms. Everyone else has a right to sue them. That’s why next year’s Supreme Court races are critical for long-term Republican political dominance.
In 2014, four of North Carolina’s seven Supreme Court justices will be elected. There will be a new Chief Justice, as Chief Justice Sarah Parker will reach the mandatory retirement age of 72 on August 23, 2014. The four Supreme Court seats up for election in 2014 are:
- Chief Justice Sarah Parker, Democrat, Mecklenburg (Mandatory retirement)
- Justice Mark Martin, Republican, Wake (Running for Chief Justice)
- Justice Cheri Beasley, Democrat, Cumberland (Appointed to Timmons-Goodson seat)
- Justice Robin Hudson, Democrat, Wake
The NC Supreme Court has a solid conservative majority. There are four “non-partisan” Republicans and three “non-partisan” Democrats. Chief Justice Parker, a former member of the Executive Committee of the state Democratic Party, has long been seen as a conservative justice.
However, North Carolina is a purple, battleground state trending blue. Blue is Democratic. Most of the growth in the next several decades will be in urban areas; Democrat-friendly areas. There is no guarantee that returning to partisan Supreme Court races alone will help Republicans keep the majority.
But this much you can guarantee: Lady Justice may be blindfolded, and those scales she holds may be balanced, but if the case impacts the outcome of political races, Lady Justice will take that blindfold off to check the political party of the plaintiffs … then she will adjust the scales accordingly.
Three weeks ago, I began a series of reports highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The four rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
Today, I am adding Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war.
US Supreme Court: 224 decisions with a 5-4 vote since 2000
To give you some idea of what an ideologically split NC Supreme Court would look like, consider the US Supreme Court. The justices are historically labeled ideologically as liberals, moderates or conservatives. According to SCOTUSblog, about 80% of all US Supreme Court cases are not decided along ideological lines. However, an average of 19 cases a year are 5-4 decisions.
- Since 2000, there have been 224 US Supreme Court 5-4 split decisions
- US Supreme Court has an average of 19 opinions per term with a 5-4 split decision
- 70% of all 5-4 split decisions divided the US Supreme Court along ideological lines
Examples of 5-4 votes by the US Supreme Court since 2000:
- BUSH v. GORE (2000) decided the outcome of the presidential race
- CITIZENS UNITED v. FEC (2010) decided that independent political spending was unlimited
- NFIB v. SEBELIUS (2012) decided that ObamaCare’s individual mandate is constitutional
In the 2012, one man, US Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, decided that ObamaCare is constitutional. Not the $700 million spent in 2012 by conservative independent groups; not the $1.2 billion spent by “I will repeal ObamaCare” Mitt Romney. Just John Roberts.
What angered conservatives the most about ObamaCare was the individual mandate; the right of the government to compel Americans to buy health insurance. According to Forbes, The Inside Story on How Roberts Changed His Supreme Court Vote on Obamacare, Chief Justice Roberts initially sided with the “four conservatives” on the court. Then, he switched. Now, ObamaCare is constitutional.
Political Turning Point for NC Republicans was the Stephenson Case
There is no greater illustration of the political significance of the courts in North Carolina than the Stephenson v. Bartlett redistricting case in 2002. A 5-2 Republican NC Supreme Court upheld lower court rulings in favor of Republican plaintiffs who argued that the Democratic legislative remappers violated the state constitution by failing to preserve whole counties. They even upheld the right of a Superior Court judge to throw out the legislative plans and draw his own interim maps.
Here is what the press had to say:
Asheville Citizens Times, June 1, 2002; Writer: Kerra Fisher: “The equivalent of a political seismic shift occurred on Friday, when a Smithfield trial court judge issued new political boundaries for the state that could tip the scales of legislative power in the Republicans’ favor.”
Winston-Salem Journal, Sat. June 1, 2002; Writer: David Rice: “In a decision that Republicans said puts both houses of the General Assembly in play and that Democrats criticized as unjustified judicial activism, a judge adopted new maps yesterday for state legislative districts in the 2002 elections.”
The political consequences were dramatic, shifting the advantage of remapping away from the Democrats to a level legislative playing field.
NC Senate Democrats: 12-Seat Advantage to 0-Seat Advantage
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 28 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 16 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
- After the judicially mandated remapping of districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a total loss of the advantage for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
NC House Democrats: 12-Seat Advantage to 4-Seat Disadvantage
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 59 House districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 47 House districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts. There were 14 swing House districts.
- After judicially mandated remapping the districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 51 districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 55 districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net loss of 16 districts for the Democrats. There were still 14 swing districts.
Democrats were outraged. Here is what a few Democrats had to say at the time:
Sen. Allen Wellons, (D), Johnston: “The Constitution has been trampled on. I’m shocked. This is the worst judicial activism I’ve seen,” said Wellons, “Unless the people stand up and see what has been done to them, the Republicans will take over the legislature.”
Sen. Fountain Odom, (D), Mecklenburg: “It’s unbelievable to me a judge has exercised his discretion in what he thinks maps should look like,” Odom said. “The plaintiffs in this case went judge shopping and found a judge that was not only friendly to their cause but was a friend of theirs.” .
Sen. Wib Gulley, (D), Durham: “It’s become very clear that [Jenkins] has engaged in a raw power grab on behalf of the GOP,” said Gulley, “All it does is ensure the election of more Republicans.”
Scott Falmlen, Executive Director of the NC Democratic Party: “It’s not too difficult for us to believe that the fix was in from the very beginning,” he said. “I don’t ever want to hear a Republican complain about judicial activism…. These are the most activist opinions I’ve ever seen.”
I added the outrage so you can sense the political significance of the NC Supreme Court’s rulings. “Unless the people stand up and see what has been done to them, the Republicans will take over the legislature,” said Sen. Allen Wellons, (D), Johnston.
Without Stephenson v. Bartlett, the number of state senate and house districts drawn to favor Democrats would likely have been too great to overcome in 2010, even with a strong Republican leadership team and national GOP-friendly momentum driven by anti-President Obama sentiment.
Without 2010, Republicans would not be in power today.
Democrats stopped partisan races in 2002 and created a political trap
During the 2002 legislative session, the Judicial Campaign Reform Act was passed over the objections of Republicans, ending partisan elections for NC Supreme Court and Court of Appeals races. The law included provisions for the use of public financing of appellate judiciary campaigns, making North Carolina the first state to adopt full public financing of appellate judicial elections.
Why had non-partisan elections not been a priority for Democrats before 2002? Because there were no Republicans elected to the NC Supreme Court from 1896 until 1994. Thanks to the national Republican wave in 1994, Republicans I. Beverly Lake and Robert F. Orr won seats on the court.
Ten years after the first Republican NC Supreme Court Justices elected in the 20th Century took their seats, the court became 6-1 Republican with a Republican Chief Justice. That is due in great part to the 1990s being a conservative era, especially with regards to crime and justice.
North Carolina Democrats had to act. What could be done to stop the era of Republican dominance? The answer was three-fold: 1.Non-partisan elections; 2. Public financing limits; 3. A secret fund to run independent expenditure TV ads on behalf of their slate of candidates.
It was a trap. Take the party off the ballot, lure Republicans into limiting themselves to a meager $250,000 in a publicly financed statewide campaign, and then create an independent expenditure committee to effectively double the money being spent on behalf of their candidates.
The trap was sprung in 2006
In 2006, the trap was sprung. A Democrat-financed independent expenditure group named FairJudges.net spent about as much independently for TV ads promoting their slate of Supreme Court candidates as candidates accepting the public financing limits, thereby doubling the influence of money in the targeted Supreme Court races.
Case in point is the 2006 race for the Supreme Court between Robin Hudson, a Democrat, and Ann Marie Calabria, a Republican. Hudson barely defeated Calabria 50.6% to 49.4%, spending $273,759 to Calabria’s $291,056. Hudson not only benefited from the $259,101 spent by FairJudges.net on ads naming her as a “fair judge,” she benefited from the non-partisan elections bill passed by Democrats.
Prior to non-partisan elections, Calabria would have had a partisan advantage, as voters consistently chose Republicans over Democrats in Supreme Court races in the ten years leading up to 2006, even when the GOP candidates were outspent. North Carolinians wanted a conservative appellate judiciary.
The News & Observer published a story October 31, 2006, “TV Ads Highlight 4 Candidates,” reporting that FairJudges.net was organized by Scott Falmien, former Executive Director of the state Democratic Party. According to the N&O, a FairJudges.net press release “listed donors, mainly Democratic-leaning entities and individual: the NC Democratic Party, the N.C. Academy of Trial Lawyers PAC, the Teamsters’ political committee, several trial lawyers, and others.”
It was a political trap.
Anticipated demographic changes give Democrats a growing advantage
The conservative leanings of the current NC Supreme Court on matters involving politics and reapportionment challenges can be seen in recent rulings:
- Dickson v. Rucho: Ruled in favor of Republicans on the matter of whether email between legislative leaders and redistricting attorneys was protected under attorney client privilege.
- Ruled that Republican Justice Paul Newby did not have to recuse himself from redistricting cases just because of independent expenditures made in 2012 on behalf of his campaign.
However, remember, North Carolina is a purple, battleground state trending blue. Blue is Democratic. Most of the growth in the next several decades will be in urban areas; Democrat-friendly areas.
If Republicans want to keep the majority on the appellate courts, they should:
- Pass legislation, like the Democrats, to give Republicans advantages in judicial races
- Continue to fund independent expenditure committees, like the Democrats started in 2006
Lady Justice may be blindfolded, and those scales she holds may be balanced, but if the case impacts the outcome of political races, Lady Justice will take that blindfold off to check the political party of the plaintiffs … then she will adjust the balance of the scales accordingly.
Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here
If Republicans are serious about minority outreach, or “welcoming in” minorities, then they must begin by forming and funding committees and hiring consultants that are representative of the groups they seek to welcome. Only then will they be in a position to craft a message that shows women and minority groups that they care; that caring is at the core of conservatism.
Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism. Otherwise, what you are really saying is, “It’s time we put people aside and do what’s right!”
It’s Time We Put People Aside and Do What’s Right! Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism.
“The typical Republican minority outreach program is a sham. It’s like the Republican ads with one or two African Americans or Hispanics standing around the candidate with a bunch of white people. Like the Minority Outreach staffer with no budget.”
John Davis Political Report, January 25, 2013
Friday, January 25, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 4 1:13 pm
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, in his speech last night to the Republican National Committee at their winter meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina, said, “We must reject the notion that demography is destiny, the pathetic and simplistic notion that skin pigmentation dictates voter behavior. …The first step in getting voters to like you is to demonstrate that you like them.”
Many American voters, especially minority groups, think that Republicans do not like them. Do not care about them. They think that Republicans are more about ideology than people.
When minority voters hear Republican leaders speak passionately about immigration, deficit spending, the national debt, taxes, entitlements, jobs and the economy, what they actually hear them say is, It’s time we put people aside and do what’s right. Conservatism over caring.
Two weeks ago, I began a series of reports highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The three rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
Today, I am writing about Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism.
The history of RNC minority outreach is a sham
Betsy Cochrane, from Clemmons, North Carolina, former GOP state Senator and first Republican woman to serve as Minority Leader (1985-1986), told me once in an interview, “The biggest problem facing Republican women today is Republican men.”
I thought about that this morning when I read that the RNC is planning to get serious about outreach to women, African Americans, Asian Americans and Hispanics.
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus plans to say to the RNC attendees in Charlotte, according to the text of his remarks, “Simple outreach a few months before an election will not suffice.” He adds, “In fact, let’s stop talking about ‘reaching out’ – and start working on welcoming in.”
If Priebus and the RNC are serious about diversity and “welcoming in” women and minorities, the critical questions they must first address are:
- What is the gender, race and ethnicity of the strategic planning committee and consultants?
- What is the budget for the “welcoming in” plan?
For decades, most Republican campaign committees and candidates have had a minority outreach program. However, more often than not, the minority outreach program consisted of a “Minority Outreach Coordinator,” usually a low-paid, minority staffer, with no budget for outreaching.
The typical Republican minority outreach program is a sham. It’s like the Republican ads with one or two African Americans standing around the candidate with a bunch of white people.
Are white, male Republican leaders and consultants planning how best to reach out to women or African Americans? Are non-Asian or non-Hispanic consultants helping the RNC with their strategy for reaching Asian American voters or Hispanic voters?
It’s no wonder Republicans are having a problem with minorities in America.
The most important rule for minority outreach
The most important rule I learned about campaigning for minority voter support during my three decades as a political professional I learned from Bethel Nathan, an African American Republican consultant from Houston, Texas.
Bethel taught me in the early 1980s that if you want to understand what moves black voters, talk to someone black; don’t rely on white political consultants. Hiring someone white to plan your outreach to African Americans would be like hiring a Hispanic consultant to find out what moves Asian voters.
Minorities in America are still generations away from the day that unique cultural histories and sensitivities and nuances no longer matter. If the RNC wants effective advice on how to communicate their “welcoming in” message to a particular racial or ethnic group, or women or young people, they need to make sure that their strategic planners and consultants are representative of that group.
Andrew Young, former Mayor of Atlanta and UN Ambassador, a Democrat, was so incensed by being kept out of the inner circle of the 1984 presidential campaign of Walter Mondale, the Democratic Party’s nominee who served as Vice President under President Jimmy Carter, that he described Mondale’s strategists as a bunch of “smart-ass white boys.”
Mayor Young hit a home run with black voters by expressing his frustration with a fundamental flaw in far too many campaign organizations: White guys doing the minority outreach.
The fact is, most white consultants, Democrats and Republicans, are competitive entrepreneurs who do not want to share the campaign’s lucrative advertising deals. They guarantee themselves the greatest influence over the campaign and the largest cut of the campaign budget if they don’t have any competition in the minority outreach inner circle where the planning is done.
Throughout his professional life, until his death last December, Bethel Nathan tried to persuade white Republicans that they can break the lock-step loyalty of black voters to the Democratic Party if they will focus on two words: respect and recognition.
Nathan’s message fell on deaf ears. White Republican leaders, including those at the RNC, guided by the advice of white Republican consultants, determined that white Republican candidates had no chance of getting black votes no matter how much effort was made or how much money was spent.
Thus, the Republican minority outreach effort has always been token; the budget minimal. A sham.
If Republicans are serious about minority outreach, or “welcoming in” minorities, then they must begin by forming and funding committees and hiring consultants that are representative of the groups they seek to welcome. Only then will they be in a position to craft a message that shows women and minority groups that they care; that caring is at the core of conservatism.
Rule #4:Caring must be at the core of conservatism. Otherwise, what you are really saying is, “It’s time we put people aside and do what’s right!”
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity; and, the best hope for resurgent Democrats.
“Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity.” John Davis Political Report, 1/17/2013
Thursday, January 17, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 3 10:13 pm
Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. It’s true nationally and here in North Carolina. They are more moderate than conservative, more pro-government than anti-government, more independent than partisan, more diverse and more socially tolerant.
There are 28 member mayors of the North Carolina Metropolitan Mayors Coalition, representing the municipalities with populations over 30,000. Only 7 of the 28 are Republicans.
Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity; and, the best hope for resurgent Democrats.
Here are a few compelling North Carolina voter registration/voter turnout facts:
- Wake/Mecklenburg counties cast 934,265 votes last fall, same as the lowest 61 counties
- Half of President Obama’s total votes last fall came from only 8 of 100 counties
- Since 1993, half of North Carolina’s 3 million new voters registered in 10 counties
Last week, I began what will be a series of reports on How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like the Democrats). The first report dealt with Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable; and Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors.
Today, I am writing about Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer.
Big Counties Dominate N.C. Politics; Big States Dominate U.S.
It is startling to think that only 5 states of 50 were needed for President Obama to cross the halfway mark to the 270 electoral votes needed for a second term. California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan gave Obama 140 votes.
It is even more startling to think that only 8 North Carolina counties out of 100 were needed for half of President Obama’s total votes in the 2012 General Election. Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Durham, Forsyth, Cumberland, Buncombe, and Orange counties gave President Obama 1,080,276 votes of his 2,156,025 North Carolina General Election total.
Those same eight counties gave GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney 722,772 votes; 357,504 fewer votes than they gave President Obama.
According to national General Election exit polling analysis conducted by the New York Times:
- Obama defeated Romney by 40 points in all U.S. “Big cities,” 69% to 29%
- Obama defeated Romney by 18 points in all U.S. “Mid-sized cities,” 58% to 40%
- In NC, Obama defeated Romney by 21 points in our “Big cities,” 60% to 39%
- In NC, Obama defeated Romney by 19 points in our “Mid-sized cities,” 59% to 40%
Granted, Romney won the U.S. “Small cities” by 14 points and “Suburbs” by 2 points (NC “Small cities” by 15 points and “Suburbs” by 9 points) and carried reliably Republican rural areas throughout the state and nation. But the fact remains that the big numbers are in the metropolitan areas.
- In November 2012, 4,501,128 votes were cast in NC out of 6,641,585 registered (68%)
- Half of those 4,501,128 votes were cast in 13 counties; the other half in 87 counties
- Wake/Mecklenburg cast 934,265 votes in 2012, the same as the lowest 61 counties
Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. It’s a fact nationally and here in North Carolina. That’s why Rule #3 is so critical to the longevity of North Carolina Republicans: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer.
McCrory Just the Man to Help the GOP with Rule #3
Governor Pat McCrory, the state’s first Republican chief executive in 20 years, was not born in North Carolina. Like most of today’s metropolitan voters, the McCrory’s moved here from another state (Ohio) because of economic opportunity.
Since 1993, North Carolina’s registered voters have grown from about 3.5 million to a little over 6.5 million, for a net growth of 3.06 million. Two-thirds of those voters did not come from the South.
Half of the new voters since 1993 registered in 10 counties: Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Cumberland, Durham, Forsyth, Union, New Hanover, Buncombe and Johnston.
Here is a startling political reality check: Wake and Mecklenburg counties alone had a combined net growth of 768,224 voters in the last 20 years, the same as the bottom 73 counties.
Pat McCrory served seven terms as mayor of Charlotte, our largest city and one of the most dynamic in the country. How is it possible that a Republican could be so successful in a big city like Charlotte when most big cities prefer Democrats?
McCrory was a successful big city mayor because he knew that North Carolinians who choose to live in cities demand a unique set of quality of life services: city parks and aquatic centers; major league sports arenas and stadiums; greenways and efficient public transportation; children’s museums and a public investment in the arts.
“We’re at the intersection of government and Main Street,” said Governor McCrory in his inaugural address on Saturday, January 12, 2013. What makes him just the right man to help North Carolina Republicans with Rule #3 is that he knows that “main street” for most North Carolinians runs through a metropolitan city.
Republicans have only 31% of the registered voters in North Carolina today. You need 50% to win statewide races. That’s why the state Republican leaders must position themselves to recruit from metropolitan voters.
Rule #3 is critical to the longevity of North Carolina Republicans: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here JND
The arrogance of Democratic invulnerability in North Carolina has led to scandal after scandal, indictment after indictment, embarrassment after embarrassment, the loss of legislative power and political dominance, even scandal and academic fraud at our most revered universities. No leader is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years. Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
“Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding.” John Davis Political Report, 1/11/2013
Friday, January 11, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 2 2:13 pm
The 114-year political winning streak for North Carolina Democrats ended Wednesday, January 9, 2013, with the swearing in of our state’s 170 state legislators. On that day, the political power of North Carolina Republicans over state government became absolute. Republican Governor, Speaker of the House and President Pro Tem of the Senate. Super majorities in both chambers.
Democrats had absolute power over North Carolina state government for all but four years since 1898. That was 1995 to 1999, when Republicans had a majority in the North Carolina House. A prized seat at the three-cornered table where all of the state budgeting decisions are made.
Granted, there were two Republican governors during the 20th Century. But they had no veto power. A Republican governor without veto power in the 20th Century had no power.
So, how long will the North Carolina Republican Party keep their absolute power? Can they match the Democrats’ winning streak of 114 Years? What are the rules for political longevity?
Rule #1: Always, always remember that you are vulnerable
In The Art of War, the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu teaches the importance of defending your position on the battlefield until it is safe to change to a more advantageous position. Don’t create opportunities for the enemy by making yourself vulnerable.
North Carolina Democrats never seemed to realize that they were creating opportunities for Republicans by making themselves vulnerable.
There were plenty of warning signs. Democrats should have known:
- A 10-year rash of embarrassing criminal indictments would scare off even the most loyal contributors;
- Allowing their legislative caucuses to become ideologically warped to the far left of center would scare off business leaders;
- If your leaders hog the glory and don’t build a deep bench of farm-team candidates you will wind up without a new generation when needed;
- If you stand with the U.S. President and his personal agenda (healthcare) and against the voters and their agenda (jobs and the economy), you are going get into a world of hurt. You may even lose the opportunity to remap political districts.
- Buying elections with obligatory loyalty from resentful contributors won’t stand the test of a strong challenge if you are vulnerable.
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. It makes you think you are not vulnerable.
The arrogance of Democratic invulnerability in North Carolina has led to scandal after scandal, indictment after indictment, embarrassment after embarrassment, the loss of legislative power and political dominance, even scandal and academic fraud at our most revered universities.
No leader is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
Rule #2: Criminal indictments will scare off contributors
Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding. That’s what happened to Democrats during the last ten years.
- Federal prosecutor George Holding’s investigations into the campaign finance violations dried up many sources of Democratic contributions, especially in Eastern North Carolina.
- Prominent Eastern North Carolina Democratic fundraisers like Lanny Wilson, who resigned from the North Carolina Board of Transportation after being caught up in the investigation into former Gov. Mike Easley’s campaign contributions, is a case in point.
- Investigations into campaign finance violations by Gov. Mike Easley were so pervasive over such a long period of time, leading to indictments, convictions and many embarrassing revelations involving everyone from Easley and his wife to prominent supporters, that major Democratic donors put their checkbooks back in their pockets.
- Gov. Beverly Perdue and her campaign staff, who also benefited from the fundraising muscle of Eastern North Carolina Democratic bag men, came under criminal investigation by federal and state prosecutors, leading to additional scrutiny of prominent Democratic fundraisers and ultimately more indictments and convictions.
Everyone was subpoenaed.
Here’s the problem: Everyone was subpoenaed. Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding.
In addition to the national scandal involving North Carolina’s own U.S. Senator John Edwards, arguably the most despised Democratic leader in America in the last decade, our state has been embarrassed time and again by the indictments and convictions of Democrats like former state Sen. and U.S. Cong. Frank Ballance, former House Speaker Jim Black, former Commissioner of Agriculture Meg Scott Phipps, former state Rep. Thomas Wright, former Governor Mike Easley and his administration’s lawyer Ruffin Poole.
Last year, two former members of Governor Perdue’s campaign staff, her 2008 campaign finance director and her Western North Carolina office director, plead guilty to campaign finance violations.
Every Democrat on the list above violated Rule #1. They didn’t think they were vulnerable. As a result, they suffered the consequences of Rule #2: Indictments scare off contributors.
Republicans who think they can manage their newfound absolute power better than the Democrats should remember that just last July, one of their own, former GOP Rep. Steven LaRoque from Kinston, resigned from the House in light of federal criminal indictments.
Who will be next? The one that thinks he is not vulnerable.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Subscribe for 2013! If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online here using your credit card or debit card.
Need a speaker? Inquire about availability
The John Davis Political Report was named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
It wasn’t the data; it was the geeks who knew how to manage the data that gave Obama an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstar consultants.
They Beat Them at the Door; the New Door. How geeks became the secret weapon in Obama’s second win.
“They lived in the cellular shadows, effectively immune to traditional get-out-the-vote efforts.” Time magazine’s Michael Sherer, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters
Friday, January 4, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 1 3:13 pm
Living in Cellular Shadows; Immune to Get-Out-The-Vote Efforts
My wife and I have eight adult children, which includes three spouses, ages 24 to 32. They are among the best informed voters in America; university degrees, world travelers, tech savvy. Yet not one of the eight has cable TV, a home phone, a home radio or subscribes to a newspaper.
All of our children voted last fall, yet they did not receive a single Get-Out-The-Vote call from any campaign, national or state. They were among those who, “lived in the cellular shadows,” wrote Time magazine’s Michael Sherer in his story, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters, “effectively immune to traditional get-out-the-vote efforts.”
Sherer’s story disclosed for the first time a near disaster for the Obama reelection campaign in the fall of 2012. “Half the campaign’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 had no listed phone number.” How are you going to turn out one of your most loyal constituencies if you can’t find their phone numbers? The answer? Facebook apps.
- 85% of Obama’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 with no listed phone number were found via a Facebook Friends app
- 1 million Obama backers used the app on Facebook, permitting the Chicago HQ analytics geeks to look at their Facebook Friends
- 600,000 Obama supporters used the Facebook app to persuade 5 million of their Facebook Friends to register, contribute and/or vote
- Obama team registered 1.8 million new voters door-to-door; 1.1 million online
Chicago-based data analytics geeks gave President Barack Obama his margin of victory by identifying a powerful new means of “door-to-door contact” by friends: Facebook Friends apps on smartphones and tablets. Friends contacting friends. The new door.
Obama’s Institutional Advantage Over Romney and His Super PACs
Read Time’s story, Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win, and you will discover that Jim Messina, Obama’s Campaign Manager, hired an analytics team five times the size of the 2008 operations team.
The team of dozens of data-mining geeks worked in secret in a remote corner of the HQ in Chicago for 18 months, “creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.”
The Obama megafile allowed the campaign:
- To predict the types of people who would be persuaded by specific messages
- To rank their target lists for unique actions in order of persuadability (register; donate)
- To predict the types of people who would more likely give money online or by mail
- To predict the types of people who would volunteer, and for what type of work
- To operate and invest with maximum efficiency
- To raise a record $1 billion war chest
- To turn out voters in swing states in record numbers
From the Time story: “We ran the election 66,000 times every night,” said a senior official, describing the computer simulations the campaign ran to figure out Obama’s odds of winning each swing state. “And every morning we got the spit-out — here are your chances of winning these states. And that is how we allocated resources.”
“I want to say one word to you. Just one word.”
In the 1967 Academy Award winning movie The Graduate, starring Dustin Hoffman, one of the top 100 most memorable movie one-liners was produced. It was, “Plastics.”
The film was a coming-of-age story about a recent college graduate who was struggling with the pressures of an older, corrupting generation. “I want to say one word to you. Just one word,” said Mr. McGuire, to Benjamin, the new graduate, “Are you listening? Plastics,” he said, “There is a great future in plastics.”
If I could write the screenplay for a modern-day remake of The Graduate based on the 2012 elections, the dialogue would be: “I want to say one word to you. Just one word,” said Mr. McGuire, “Are you listening? Geeks,” he said, “There is a great future in geeks.”
After reading numerous accounts of how Obama’s Chicago team built an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstars, I am persuaded that it was the geeks, the data-mining, analytical, app creating geeks, who became the secret weapon in Obama’s second win.
It wasn’t the data; it was the geeks who knew how to manage the data that gave Obama an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstar consultants. It wasn’t the mobile devices like smartphones and tablets; it was the geeks who discovered how apps can allow friends to knock on “new doors” of friends. Digital doors.
Pew Research Center reports in The Demographics of Mobile News, that young people have “largely abandoned the print news product,” preferring instead to get their news on smartphones and tablets. Another Pew study, In Changing News Landscape, Even Television is Vulnerable, concluded that, “Among the youngest Americans – those younger than 25 – substantially more get news digitally than from traditional news sources (60% vs. 43%).
If you want to contact them, to persuade them, to get them to volunteer or contribute to your campaign, to get them to go out and vote, you are going to have to geek up.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Subscribe for 2013! If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online here using your credit card or debit card.
Need a speaker? Inquire about availability
The John Davis Political Report was named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND