Welcome to North Carolina, the Nation’s Most Perfectly Balanced Political Battlefield February 26, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 6 2:13 pm Gallup Study based on 178,527 Interviews Here is a startling political finding: North Carolina is closer in partisan identity to Minnesota, Maine and Oregon than it is to Tennessee, South Carolina and Alabama. That
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Welcome to North Carolina, the Nation’s Most Perfectly Balanced Political Battlefield
February 26, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 6 2:13 pm
Gallup Study based on 178,527 Interviews
Here is a startling political finding: North Carolina is closer in partisan identity to Minnesota, Maine and Oregon than it is to Tennessee, South Carolina and Alabama. That insightful conclusion about our partisan political identity is from the Gallup Daily Tracking service’s analysis of 178,527 U.S. adults from 2013 daily tracking polls.
There are certain questions that Gallup tracks daily by conducting 1,000 interviews of U.S. adults, 365 days a year. The questions deal with public opinion on issues like the economy, the direction of the country, the president’s job approval, the favorability of the political parties, and the number of Americans who consider themselves liberal, moderate and conservative.
By the end of calendar year 2013, the daily survey of 1,000 U.S. adults yielded a grand total of 178,527 respondents representing all demographic groups and political persuasions in all 50 states. The total included 5,801 North Carolinians, a highly reliable sample size for a statewide analysis, as most North Carolina polls use a sample size between 350 and 750 respondents.
North Carolina is Right in the Middle of the States plus D.C.
Here is another startling finding: Gallup’s annualized results of 2013 daily tracking shows that there are 25 states where it is better to be a Republican than North Carolina, and 24 states plus the District of Columbia where it is better to be a Democrat than North Carolina.
The safest place in America for Democrats is the District of Columbia, where 72% of the adults are Democratic/Lean Democratic and 14.3% are Republican/Lean Republican. The next best place in America for Democrats is New York, followed on the Top 10 Most Democratic states by Hawaii, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, California, Illinois and Delaware.
The safest place in America for Republicans is Wyoming, where 60.1% of adults are Republican/Lean Republican and only 20% are Democratic/Lean Democratic. Joining Wyoming among the Top 10 Most Republican states are Utah, North Dakota, Idaho, Kansas, Alaska, South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana and Oklahoma.
Where is North Carolina ranked on the list of state party leanings?
- North Carolina is right square in the middle of Gallup’s list of state party leanings
- 41.3% of North Carolina adults are Democratic/Lean Democratic; 41.9% are Republican/Lean Republican
- North Carolina is nestled in the middle of the list between Wisconsin and Ohio on the Democratic side; Arizona and Virginia on the Republican side
- North Carolina is closer in partisan identity to Minnesota, Maine and Oregon than Tennessee, South Carolina and Alabama
Now you know why it’s so expensive to run for political office in North Carolina. Neither party has a partisan advantage.
Democrats Suffer Major Loss of Solid/Lean States; Republicans Gain
Gallup defines “Solid States” as those where one party has a 10% or greater advantage over the other party. “Leaning States” are those where one party has a 5% to 10% advantage over the other party. An analysis of the partisan trends in the states since 2008 shows a major decline in the number of states that are Solid/Leaning Democratic.
- In 2008, Democrats had 35 Solid/Lean Democratic states; in 2013, there were only 17
- In 2008, Democrats had net + 30 state advantage over Republicans; in 2013, that advantage had plummeted to + 3
- In 2008, Republicans had only 4 Solid States; in 2013 there were 12
Oh, by the way, Gallup defines “Competitive States” as those where the two parties are within 5% of each other. North Carolina, where 41.3% of adults are Democratic/Lean Democratic and 41.9% are Republican/Lean Republican, is among the most competitive states in the nation.
President Obama’s Low Job Approval Driving State Trends
As of today, Wednesday, February 26, 2013, Pres. Obama’s job approval is 43%, with 54% of Americans disapproving. In all of 2013, Pres. Obama’s average job approval was 46.5%. Here is a look at some of the interesting state facts from the 2013 Gallup study:
- Only 15 states + D.C. gave Pres. Obama a job approval score above his 46.5% average
- In North Carolina, Pres. Obama’s average job approval in 2013 was 43%
- North Carolina was the 24th most disapproving of Pres. Obama’s job performance (again, very close to the center of the ranking of all states on Obama’s job approval)
Here are results of recent statewide polls in North Carolina on the president’s job approval:
- On February 24, 2014, a new High Point University poll showed that 42% of North Carolina residents approve of Pres. Barack Obama’s job performance; 51% disapprove
- On February 13, 2014, a Public Policy Polling poll showed that 40% of North Carolina registered voters approved of Pres. Obama’s job performance; 53% disapproved
- On February 3, 2014, a Civitas poll of North Carolina registered voters showed that 45% approved of Pres. Obama’s job performance; 52% disapproved
Is North Carolina Conservative, Moderate or Liberal?
At this point we know that North Carolina is right square in the middle of all states when it comes to partisan leanings, and one place away from being in the middle of all states when it comes to presidential job approval. But, where do we stand on ideology?
Again, Gallup’s year end analysis of its daily tracking polls include the ranking of all states by ideology: conservative, moderate and liberal. Here are key findings from the analysis:
- Nationally, Americans are 36.8% Conservative, 36.6% Moderate and 22.2% Liberal
- North Carolina is 40% Conservative, 35.6% Moderate and 19% Liberal
- North Carolina is the 24th most conservative state, right near the middle
- All Southern states, except Virginia and Florida, are more conservative than NC
The number of Americans who say they are “Moderate” is 36.6%. North Carolina is very close to the national average at 35.6%.
The number of Americans who say they are “Liberal” is 22.2%. North Carolina was fairly close to the national average in 2013 with 19% of our adults stating that they are liberal.
A more recent look at the ideology of our state can be seen in a Civitas survey of North Carolina registered general election voters conducted January 23; 25-26, 2014. Results:
- Conservative 46% (Very Conservative 23%; Somewhat Conservative 23%)
- Moderate 29%
- Liberal 20% (Very Liberal 8%; Somewhat Liberal 12%)
- 5% Don’t Know
Looking only at North Carolina’s 46% who said they are Conservative: 54% said they are Republican; 22% said they are Democratic and 22% said they are Independent/Unaffiliated.
Looking only at North Carolina’s 29% who said they are Moderate: 23% said they are Republican 42% said they are Democrat and 33% said they are Independent/Unaffiliated.
Looking only at North Carolina’s 20% who said they are Liberal: 83% said they are Democrat; 7% say Republican and 10% say Independent/Unaffiliated.
So, are we conservative, moderate or liberal? Are we a Republican red state or a Democratic blue state? My research shows that whether you were talking about party or ideology, North Carolina is a perfectly balanced state.
North Carolina is the most perfectly balanced political battlefield in America.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report 
John N. Davis, Editor
Lessons from Last Two Presidential Second-Term, Midterm Elections are Keys for GOP Success in 2014 February 13, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 5 10:13 am If you win your base, but lose the middle, you lose the war This is the midterm election year of President Obama’s second term, which by all accounts should be
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Lessons from Last Two Presidential Second-Term, Midterm Elections are Keys for GOP Success in 2014
February 13, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 5 10:13 am
If you win your base, but lose the middle, you lose the war
This is the midterm election year of President Obama’s second term, which by all accounts should be a favorable year for North Carolina Republicans. After all, the party in the White House has lost an average of 30 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and four seats in the U.S. Senate since the Woodrow Wilson administration early in the 20th century.
But not so fast.
If you take a look at the midterm elections during the second term of the last two presidents you will discover that they were not very favorable for North Carolina Republicans. Those two election years, 1998 and 2006, were years in which the GOP learned the hard way that you can’t win just by exploiting the misfortunes of Democrats. That strategic misjudgment could easily by repeated in 2014 if the GOP spends the year attacking Democrats on ObamaCare.
In 1998, the second term midterm elections of sex scandal-plagued Democratic President Bill Clinton, the state GOP suffered the loss of the majority in the North Carolina House of Representatives and lost Lauch Faircloth’s U.S. Senate seat to upstart John Edwards. At the federal level, Democrats actually gained five U.S. House seats and did not lose any Senate seats.
How could the GOP possibly lose in 1998?
In the fall of 1998, Republicans here in North Carolina and around the country decided to bring down Democrats by reminding voters of the affair between President Clinton and a 21-year-old White House intern named Monica Lewinsky. GOP political strategists assumed in 1998 that the American people could be duped into believing that Republicans had greater personal character qualities than Democrats. They piled on the attack ads. It backfired.
On December 19, 1998, after a year of Congressional investigations and testimony riddled with salacious detail, the Republican-controlled U.S. House voted to impeach President Clinton. The next day, December 20, 1998, Clinton’s approval rating jumped ten points to 73%, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, an all-time high for the embattled president.
The day after the Republican-controlled U.S. House voted to impeach President Clinton, his approval rating jumped higher than President Ronald Reagan’s highest rating. At the same time, the number of Americans with a favorable view of the Republican Party fell 10 points.
After the dust settled in November 1998, Democrats had won an upset comeback victory by not losing what they had and by making surprise gains. For the first time since 1934, the party in the White House picked up Congressional seats during a mid-term election year.
Again, here in North Carolina, U.S. Senator Lauch Faircloth, R-Sampson County, lost to political novice John Edwards, D-Moore/Wake County, and the GOP lost the majority party advantage in the North Carolina House, giving the Democrats all of the power over the state budget.
Important: Republicans won their base by beating Clinton down, but they lost the middle American voter. If you win your base, but lose the middle, you lose the war.
If you win the middle voters, but lose your base voter, you lose the war
Fast forward to 2006, the midterm elections during Republican President George Bush’s second term. Same disastrous results for the GOP for the same reason. All year the Democratic Speaker of the North Carolina House, Jim Black from Matthews, had been embroiled in scandalous allegations of bribery schemes, public corruption, buying votes with $50,000 cash exchanged in a bathroom at the IHOP in Salisbury.
Slam dunk, right?
Well, at the same time North Carolina Republicans were tying Democrats to Speaker Black, the party of family values and fiscal integrity in Washington, DC was embroiled in fraud and sex scandals of their own. And, they were on a liberal spending binge.
- In years 2005 and 2006, the GOP-led Congress approved 23,960 earmarks costing $56.3 billion, and ran up a $371 billion budget deficit.
- Republicans brought down by fraud or inappropriate sexual behavior during this time include Rep. Tom Delay, Rep. Tom Foley, Sen. Larry Craig, Sen. David Vitter, Rep. “Duke” Cunningham, Sen. Ted Stevens, “Scooter” Libby and Jack Abramoff.
In 2006, Republicans lost the majority in the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, the majority of the governors and the majority of state legislatures in great part due to a scandal-plagued Republican Congress that broke all records for pork barrel spending.
Here in North Carolina, Republicans lost six-term U.S. Congressman Charles Taylor from Transylvania County, contributing to the Democratic takeover of the U.S. House.
At the state level, Republicans lost three out of four North Carolina Supreme Court races in 2006 (Democrats Sarah Parker, Patricia Timmons-Goodson and Robin Hudson won), and lost ground in both the state House and Senate despite the year-long scandal involving Speaker Black.
Important: Congressional Republicans humored the middle with liberal spending but lost their base voter. If you win the middle voters, but lose your base voter, you lose the war.
You have to win both your base and the middle to win the war
State Republicans should have no problem holding their base in 2014. After all, they can boast a long list of conservative accomplishments: personal and corporate tax cuts, regulatory reform, unemployment insurance rate cuts, managing a $3.5 billion unemployment debt crisis without raising taxes, cutting down on frivolous lawsuits, the most significant tax reform in 80 years, cutting the unemployment rate to under 7%, and elections reform like the photo ID law.
With their record of accomplishments, North Carolina Republicans have all of the advantages for winning elections in 2014 … except one: the middle voters. You reach the middle voters by touting your accomplishments and by offering solutions to problems of the day.
Gallup’s most recent national survey (Jan 5-8, 2014) on the “Most Important Problem Facing the U.S.” shows that the #1 concern of American voters is “Dissatisfaction with government/poor leadership.” The other top problems are “Economy in general,” “Unemployment/Jobs,” and “High cost of healthcare.”
You can satisfy the #1 concern of voters (Government leadership) by offering solutions to their concerns about jobs and the economy; unemployment, healthcare … and in North Carolina, education.
The lessons from the last two presidential second-term, midterm elections are the keys for GOP success in 2014. If you win your base, but lose the middle, you lose the war. If you win the middle voters, but lose your base voter, you lose the war.
You have to win both your base and the middle to win the war.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis, Editor
January 31, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 4 9:13 am The January 16, 2014 John Davis Political Report, How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover, proffered the observation that the 2013 shutdown fiasco was so cataclysmic for Republicans that it sparked the political will to push
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January 31, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 4 9:13 am
The January 16, 2014 John Davis Political Report, How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover, proffered the observation that the 2013 shutdown fiasco was so cataclysmic for Republicans that it sparked the political will to push back against Tea Party obstructionists and begin to make deals.
Yesterday, January 30, 2014, Republican House Speaker John Boehner indicated a shift in priorities when he told reporters at the GOP’s Legislative Retreat in Eastern Maryland, “It’s important that we show the American people we’re not just the opposition party, we’re actually the alternative party.” As an example, he announced “Standards for Immigration Reform” that include, “It is time to provide an opportunity for legal residence and citizenship for those who were brought to this country as children through no fault of their own, those who know no other place as home.”
January has seen numerous surprise moves by Republican leaders that signal a shift in priorities from stonewalling to offering alternatives and deal making; a shift to winning elections.
January 15, 2014, Tea Party groups like FreedomWorks and Heritage Action were dismayed when 87 House Republicans broke ranks and voted for a bipartisan compromise $1.1 trillion spending bill that passed the U.S. House by a whopping 359-67.
Earlier that same day, here in North Carolina, Republican Governor Pat McCrory greeted Democratic President Barack Obama warmly on the tarmac at Raleigh-Durham International Airport as he arrived for an announcement of a new manufacturing innovation institute at NC State. McCrory pitched his concerns about food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment and energy to the president, signaling an interest in negotiating with the liberal Democratic president on behalf of the state.
McCrory had already stunned conservative hard-liners earlier that week by praising former Democratic Governor Jim Hunt at the Hunt Education Institute’s Holshouser Legislators Retreat, saying: “Jim Hunt is a hero of mine, he’s a mentor of mine….he’s been a great adviser to me.”
The day after the president’s visit, January 16, 2014, another surprise. An overwhelming majority 76 U.S. Senators, including 17 Republicans, voted for the bipartisan compromise spending bill. The bill keeps government operations funded until September 30, 2014, and nixes another government shutdown fiasco until then.
Senator Ted Cruz, the Tea Party leader most responsible for the shutdown three months earlier, tried to unite his fellow Senators behind amendments aimed at defunding the Affordable Care Act. They had no stomach for another shutdown crisis. Cruz was ignored.
Fox News Alumnus Glenn Beck Admits Tearing Country Apart
Then, on January 21, 2014, perhaps the biggest surprise of all January Republican surprises.
Glenn Beck, former Fox News commentator with a reputation for irrational diatribes and hateful commentary, said in an interview with Fox News host Megyn Kelly, “I made an awful lot of mistakes, and I wish I could go back and be more uniting in my language. Because I think I played a role unfortunately in helping tear the country apart. And it’s not who we are. I didn’t realize how really fragile the people were. I thought we were kind of a little more in it together.
And now I look back and I realize if we could have talked about the uniting principles a little more, instead of just the problems, I think I would look back on it a little more fondly.”
Oh my goodness. Glenn Beck admitting on Fox News that his uncivil commentary helped tear the country apart. Admitting that words can hurt your party’s brand among voters in the middle. A clear sign of shifting priorities among Republicans.
But then, a setback. On January 23, 2014, during the Republican National Committee’s Winter Meeting luncheon, former Arkansas Governor and presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee referred to a woman’s libido in comments about birth control. All hell broke loose. The theme of the meeting, “Building to Victory,” was quickly overshadowed by non-stop news coverage of Huckabee’s statement. Overshadowed by words that tear the country apart.
Huckabee’s comment was Rush Limbaugh all over again, calling a college student a “slut” because she testified on behalf of government funded birth control. It was Missouri GOP U.S. Senate candidate Todd Akin all over again, claiming that victims of “legitimate rape” rarely get pregnant. It was Indiana GOP U.S. Senate candidate Richard Mourdock suggesting that pregnancies resulting from rape are part of God’s plan. Words that lose elections.
Wisely, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus spoke in his closing remarks on January 24, 2014, of the importance of being careful about what you say and how you say it. “As we look to grow the ranks of our party,” said Priebus, “we must all be very conscious of the tone and choice of words we use to communicate those policies effectively.”
Priebus, the architect of the GOP’s self-assessment a year ago, showing restraint. A leadership quality necessary to keep the party together. To stay focused on winning election in 2014.
Another Republican surprise during the month of January surprises came on Saturday, January 25, 2014, when Governor Pat McCrory said in a statement from his office that he did not think the state should appeal a federal judge’s ruling striking down a key provision of abortion legislation passed by the Republican General Assembly before McCrory took office.
Then came Thursday, January 30, 2014, and another big surprise. The Republican-led U.S. House passed a compromise farm bill over the objections of Tea Party conservatives 251-to-166. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas, an Oklahoma Republican, called the deal “a miracle” after three years of running into conservative roadblocks at every turn.
A miracle indeed. A month of miracles. A month of clear and convincing evidence last year’s shutdown debacle caused state and national GOP leaders to shift their priorities from being just the opposition party to being the alternative party willing to deal; from gridlock to winning elections.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover January 16, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 3 7:13 pm Shutdown hurt Republicans ten times more than it hurt Democrats The GOP’s failure to take back the White House and U.S. Senate in 2012 sparked a year
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How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover
January 16, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 3 7:13 pm
Shutdown hurt Republicans ten times more than it hurt Democrats
The GOP’s failure to take back the White House and U.S. Senate in 2012 sparked a year of bitter feuding. Establishment conservatives and Tea Party insurgents blamed each other for destroying yet another opportunity to right the nation’s ship. But, then came October 1, 2013; the day of the government shutdown. A fiasco that damaged Republicans so badly that it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate in 2014.
Granted, American voters blamed everyone associated with the shutdown, even dubbing the 113th Congress the “Worst Congress in History.” A Democrat-led Senate; Republican-led House. According to Gallup, only 5% of Democrats approved of the job Congress was doing in October 2013; only 13% of Independents and 15% of Republicans approved.
But most of all, voters blamed the Republican Party. Ten times more than the Democrats.
Two weeks after the shutdown, October 25-28, 2013, NBC News and The Wall Street Journal collaborated on a national bipartisan survey of voter opinion of congressional action on the budget debate. Two of the country’s most respected polling firms, Peter D. Hart Research Associates, a Democratic firm, and a Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, were hired to lead the project.
Voter replies to Question 13 disclosed why the GOP shutdown hurt Republicans the most:
Question 13: Do you want [Democratic and Republican] leaders in the House and Senate to make compromises to gain consensus on the current budget debate, or do you want them to stick to their positions even if it means not being able to gain consensus on the budget?
- 71% of Independents said “Make Compromises;” 18% said “Stick to Positions”
- 68% of Democrats said “Make Compromises;” 23% said “Stick to Positions”
- 46% of Republicans said “Make Compromises;” 47% said “Stick to Positions”
Overwhelmingly, the survey showed that Independent voters (4-to-1) and Democrats (3-to-1) favored “Make Compromises.” Even half of the Republicans said “Make Compromises.”
Despite Republican attempts to argue that it was the Democrats who were culpable of irresponsible recalcitrance, the NBC News/The Wall Street Journal national bipartisan survey showed that voters saw the GOP as the party least willing to make compromises.
Question 5: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups. I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.
| Public Figures and Groups Gallup October 25-28, 2013 |
Total Positive |
Total Negative |
||
| The Democratic Party |
37% |
40% |
||
| Barack Obama |
41% |
45% |
||
| Ted Cruz |
19% |
30% |
||
| Mitch McConnell |
11% |
28% |
||
| Harry Reid |
17% |
34% |
||
| The Tea Party Movement |
23% |
47% |
||
| John Boehner |
17% |
43% |
||
| The Republican Party |
22% |
53% |
||
There you have it. The Democratic Party’s net positive (37%) over negative (40%) is a negative 3%. The Republican Party’s net positive (22%) over negative (53%) is a negative 31%.
Bottom line: the shutdown hurt Republicans ten times more than it hurt Democrats.
The Tea Party Gets Tea Partied
When voters were asked in the NBC News/The Wall Street Journal survey if they supported the Tea Party, 70% of the respondents said “No,” only 22% said “Yes.” Unfortunately for Ken Cuccinelli, Tea Party candidate for Governor of Virginia, anti-Tea Party sentiment was peaking with Election Day only a week away. On November 6, 2013, he lost.
Establishment Republicans in Virginia had never warmed up to Cuccinelli. He was off the charts to the right on social and economic issues. Many, along with numerous state and national business groups, chose not to back the Republican nominee with checks. The RNC gave only a third of what they had given to Governor Bob McDonald in 2009. The U.S. Chamber stayed out.
The Tea Party, long known for attacking the Republican establishment, got Tea Partied. But it didn’t stop in Virginia. The anti-Tea Party defiance continued for the remainder of 2013.
- Gov. Chris Christie proved on November 6 that a Republican could win in a Democrat-friendly state like New Jersey without the help of the Tea Party
- In December, a Tea Party candidate for Congress in Alabama was defeated by a business-backed candidate who received $200,000 from the U.S. Chamber
- U.S House Speaker Boehner thumbed his nose at the Tea Party in December when they criticized the bipartisan budget deal co-authored by GOP Rep. Paul Ryan
- “Frankly, I just think they’ve lost all credibility,” Boehner told reporters
- 87 House Republicans joined the Democrats in support of the budget compromise
- 27 Senate Republicans voted with Senate Democrats to pass the compromise bill
The damage to Republicans caused by the Tea Party-led 2013 government shutdown helped most Republicans realize that even though government is the cause of many problems, the needs of many Americans are too great to ignore the importance of finding effective compromise solutions.
Ironically, the 2013 government shutdown fiasco, a divisive event that could have led to another missed opportunity to right the nation’s ship, instead galvanized most Republicans against the Tea Party brand of leadership. The government shutdown caused most American voters, Democrats (71%), Independents (68%) and Republicans (46%), to demand a new model of leadership in our nation’s capital; a model that values compromise over sticking to beliefs.
The latest evidence that Americans are uniting against the Tea Party was seen on January 15, 2014, when the U.S. House voted 359-67 for a $1.1 trillion spending bill. The bill was a bipartisan agreement, much to the dismay of Tea Party groups like FreedomWorks and Heritage Action.
The 2013 shutdown fiasco could have been the death knell for Republican political dreams. Instead, it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP U.S. Senate takeover in 2014.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan January 10, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 2 2:13 pm NOTE: This report on North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race assumes that incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan will face Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House. I am
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North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan
January 10, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 2 2:13 pm
NOTE: This report on North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race assumes that incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan will face Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House.
I am a political numbers junkie with no personal or professional relationship with the likely candidates in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, Senator Kay Hagan, a Democrat, and Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the House. In making my determination that Tillis is likely to upset Hagan, I did not talk to the candidates or their campaign professionals. I listened only to facts.
For starters:
- No North Carolina Democrat has won a second term in the U.S. Senate since 1968
- Mid-term elections do not favor the party in the White House, Democrats
- The NC Democratic Party is in shambles; the GOP has power and strong leaders
- Both candidates are equally smart, competitive and capable of raising money
- Polls show the race tied with Hagan at 44% and Tillis at 42%
- For every “extreme right” attack ad that Hagan or her super PACs run against Tillis, he and his super PACs can counter with equally damaging “extreme left” attack ads
- Hagan will be on the defensive throughout 2014 for telling PolitiFact’s 2013 Lie of the Year, “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it.”
Thanks to Project Vote Smart, a non-partisan source of legislative voting records, there are literally hundreds of evaluations of Senator Kay Hagan’s votes in the Senate. The evaluations I trust the most are those done by the National Journal, a non-partisan publication that has rated members of Congress for four decades. Hagan’s “Composite Conservative Score” is 44.7%; her “Composite Liberal Score” is 55.3%.
A comparative sample of evaluations from Project Vote Smart shows the stark ideological divide between the two candidates. Here are a few evaluations of Sen. Kay Hagan:
- Planned Parenthood (Abortion) 2013 Rating 100%
- American Civil Liberties Union of NC 2011 Rating 75%
- NC League of Conservation Voters 2012 Rating 84%
- Nat’l Fed of Independent Business 2011 Rating 37%
- National Rifle Association 2008 Rating 0%
Here are Speaker Thom Tillis’ evaluations on the same issues:
- Planned Parenthood (Abortion) 2011 Rating 0%
- American Civil Liberties Union of NC 2011 Rating 0%
- NC League of Conservation Voters 2013 Rating 0%
- Nat’l Fed of Independent Business 2010 Rating 100%
- National Rifle Association 2012 Rating 100%
What Democrats see as “extreme” legislative accomplishments, in fact, give Tillis the firepower to assure Republicans of his conservative bona fides and argue for a likely primary win.
Democrats’ legislative nightmare in 2013 is a Republican dream in 2014
The entire 20th Century ticked by with North Carolina Republicans never once having the state government power to out-muscle the Democrats on the laws of the day. Only twice in the 20th Century did the GOP have the governor’s mansion. Governors Jim Holshouser (1973-1977) and Jim Martin (1985-1993) were obstructed at every turn by solid Democratic majorities in the state Senate and House with no veto power to stop them from having their way.
Only one North Carolina Republican in the 20th Century held the House Speaker’s gavel, but Harold Brubaker (1995-1999) was obstructed at every turn by a powerful Senate Democratic caucus and Democratic Governor Jim Hunt (1977-1985; 1993-2001), a shrewd governor with a partisan passion to defeat all things Republican.
But then came the third Wednesday after the second Monday in January 2011, the day fixed by law for the convening of the General Assembly. A Republican Senate majority. A Republican House majority. A weak Democratic governor. When the dust settled at the end of the session, there were 11 veto overrides. Veto overrides that will be remembered on Tuesday, May 6, 2014.
Legislative accomplishments that conservative legends are made of. Abortion. Death penalty. Redistricting. Marriage. Taxes. Teachers union. Fracking. All red meat issues for the Republican primary faithful reveling in the successes of a Republican House and Senate.
Then came the third Wednesday after the second Monday in January 2013. Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House. Republican Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger. Republican Governor Pat McCrory. Republicans ran roughshod over the Democrats; they treated them as if they were unworthy of notice. Just as the Democrats had always treated them.
Republicans had their way with the laws of the day. Legislative accomplishments that legends are made of. Firearms. Medicaid. Abortions. Taxes. Charter schools. Regulations. Consolidation. Reorganization. Election laws. Cutting programs and services. Republican dreams come true.
Hagan cannot count on a divided Republican Party
I am sure that Kay Hagan’s camp is hoping for feuding super-rich Republicans with their super PACs to divide into three ideological camps in the fight for the GOP nomination, thereby weakening the ultimate victor. And granted, the divisions are real and have begun.
Many state and national establishment Republicans are lining up behind Tillis, like U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and North Carolina Senator Richard Burr. He also has the backing of Karl Rove and his super PAC empire.
Two other potentially viable contenders for the GOP nod, Dr. Greg Brannon, a Cary OB/GYN, and Rev. Mark Harris, a Charlotte Baptist preacher, are attracting their own big names.
Brannon, a Tea Party and pro-life activist, has the backing of national Tea Party rising star Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, as well as conservative RedState blogger Erick Erickson. Harris, former head of the Baptist State Convention, stands to benefit from his leadership role in the 2012 constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in North Carolina. He has the backing of Robin Hayes, former GOP congressman and state party chairman. Triad area radio host Bill Flynn and Wilkes County nurse practitioner Heather Grant are also running.
Of course, the great hope of Brannon/Harris/Flynn/Grant is to force a primary runoff by ganging up on Tillis with enough outside super PAC attack ads that keep his vote below 40%. However, the odds are greater that they will splinter the hard right conservatives and Tillis will parlay a sizable cash and organizational advantage into a primary victory on May 6, 2014.
Tillis’ legislative accomplishments are such that it will simply be too difficult for any Republican to get very far with an attempt to discredit his commitment to the conservative cause. In other words, even his on primary detractors will not likely stay divided against him for long. They want to defeat Hagan.
The Shutdown last December taught most Republicans two important lessons: one, bitter ideological divisions hurt them more than the Democrats; two, just saying no without an alternative proposal is not acceptable to most Americans as leadership.
A growing number of Republicans now know that they must get together on alternatives to just saying no. Otherwise, their brand will continue to be seen as callously insensitive to those who are struggling in the face of the new global economy. I suspect that North Carolina’s Republicans leaders, like Tillis, are smart enough to see that handwriting on the wall.
So, if it comes down to a race between Sen. Kay Hagan and Speaker Thom Tillis, it is highly likely that the two equally capable and equally funded combatants will be surrounded by equally savvy consultants and have the backing of equally malicious super PACs.
Which brings me back to those facts and numbers in the first paragraph, and why I believe that Thom Tillis is likely to upset Kay Hagan in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
North Carolina’s 2014 Political Preview Happy New Year! January 3, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 1 11:13 am Hagan Race to Decide U.S Senate Majority and President Obama’s Legacy Imagine waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme
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North Carolina’s 2014 Political Preview
Happy New Year!
January 3, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 1 11:13 am
Hagan Race to Decide U.S Senate Majority and President Obama’s Legacy
Imagine waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC. If you are a member of the GOP, or if you prefer conservative solutions to problems, nothing could be finer. If you are a Democrat … ummmm, need I say more?
It could happen.
GOP Governor Pat McCrory will be governor. Check. As maps plus money equal the majority, Republicans will have solid majorities in the state Senate and House (although they could lose their veto-proof super majorities). Check. The 4-3 Republican majority state Supreme Court could be 5-2 Republican with a Republican Chief Justice (Mark Martin), as three of the four seats on the ballot this fall are the three held by Democratic Justices. Three former Democratic Chief Justices are supporting Martin, Jim Exum, Henry Frye and Burley Mitchell, along with Rhoda Billings and I. Beverly Lake Jr., two former Republican Chief Justices. Check.
The 15-member North Carolina Court of Appeals is currently 9-6 Democratic, with two of the three seats on the ballot this fall held by Democratic judges. Democrats would have to lose both of those seats while the GOP held the one Republican seat in order for the court to shift to an 8-7 Republican majority. Not a probability, but a possibility. Check.
What is probable is that David Rouzer, a former state Senator from Johnston County who almost defeated incumbent Robeson County Democrat Congressman Mike McIntyre in 2012, will achieve his goal of representing the 7th Congressional District with a 2014 win. The other 9 Republican held districts will stay in the hands of Republicans, giving the GOP a total of 10 of the 13 North Carolina congressional districts. Check.
Rouser will almost certainly join a Republican majority U.S. House of Representatives, as the 233-201 GOP advantage will be too great a challenge for Democrats during a mid-term election year. The party in the White House has lost an average of 30 seats in the U.S. House over the past 21 midterm elections, and an average of 4 seats in the U.S. Senate. Furthermore, the congressional districts are drawn to an all-time high degree of partisan predictability, leaving very few vulnerable Republicans and even fewer swing seat opportunities for Democrats. GOP U.S. House. Check.
What about the U.S. Senate? Republicans need to net 6 wins to get to 51 Senators.
Well, according to the nation’s leading political prognosticators, if Republicans defeat North Carolina’s U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, a Greensboro Democrat, they are likely to have a 51-seat majority in the U.S. Senate. Republicans will then be in a position to thwart the president’s administrative and judicial picks with a simple majority vote (except for Supreme Court) thanks to the extreme “nuclear option” (simple majority decides; no longer need 60 votes) change in the Senate rules instituted last November by Democrats.
This is how important North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is in 2014. The winner will likely determine the majority of the U.S. Senate and thus President Obama’s legacy. If Hagan does lose and Republicans do take over the U.S. Senate, look for the GOP to follow the “nuclear option” precedent set by Democrats and expand its reach to include legislation. If they do, they will be able to repeal controversial elements of the Affordable Care Act and other prized liberal programs and regulations with a simple majority vote.
Next week I will handicap North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, offering the keys to a Hagan win as well as what it will take for the GOP to pull off the most far-reaching upset in the nation.
– End –
Happy New Year!
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
The Year of Our Nation’s Partisan Madness Demands a Year of Optimism and Solutions to Problems December 18, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 24 7:13 am We are a negative-weary electorate. We yearn for economic recovery, full employment, affordable healthcare and a correction of unsustainable government programs that undermine our financial integrity. Yet we know that
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The Year of Our Nation’s Partisan Madness Demands a Year of Optimism and Solutions to Problems
December 18, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 24 7:13 am
We are a negative-weary electorate. We yearn for economic recovery, full employment, affordable healthcare and a correction of unsustainable government programs that undermine our financial integrity. Yet we know that our hopes for solutions to national and state governmental problems are dashed by uncompromising and strident Republicans and Democrats.
That’s why I am persuaded that the candidates in 2014 who focus on optimism and offer constructive plans to solve national and state problems will have an advantage over those who rely on negative attacks aimed at destroying the plans of their opponents.
Attack ads are about winning the blame game. The politics of the blame game will be rejected in 2014 because there is near-universal agreement that everyone in Washington, DC is to blame. That includes the Congress and a distant President reluctant to build and maintain personal relationships with members of the legislative branch; a President lacking in management skills.
The 113th Congress is among the least productive (1% of bills filed were enacted) and lowest rated since Gallup began measuring congressional job approval in 1974 (14% average job approval in 2013). As for President Obama, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll released December 16, 2013 shows the President’s job approval lower than all two-term presidents (except for Nixon) since WWII at the same time in their administrations.
Americans no longer trust the leaders in either party to do what’s in the best interest of the country; they rate the standards of honesty and ethics for politicians lowest of all professions.
On December 16, 2013, Gallup released its annual survey on honesty and ethical standards in the professions. The top five professions are Nurses (highest rating 82%), followed by Pharmacists, Grade School Teachers, Medical Doctors and Military Officers; all professions dealing with healing, teaching and public safety. The bottom five are Advertising Practitioners, State Officeholders, Car Salespeople, Members of Congress, and Lobbyists (lowest rated at 6%), with four of the five professions dealing with politics and government.
The #1 issue on Gallup’s monthly “most important problem facing the country” list released December 12, 2013, is “Dissatisfaction with government” (21%); not the “Economy in general” (19%), or “Healthcare” (17%), “Unemployment” (12%) or the “Federal Budget Deficit” (9%).
Why is “Dissatisfaction with government” at the top of Gallup’s most important problems list? Because uncompromising and strident leaders in both parties are not willing to work together to solve problems with the other four big issues: “Economy in general,” “Healthcare,” “Unemployment,” and the “Federal Budget Deficit.”
For emphasis: We are a negative-weary electorate. We yearn for economic recovery, full employment, affordable healthcare and a correction of unsustainable government programs that undermine our financial integrity. Yet we know that our hopes for solutions to national and state governmental problems are dashed by uncompromising and strident Republicans and Democrats.
For these reasons, I am persuaded that the candidates in 2014 who focus on optimism and offer constructive solutions to national and state problems will have an advantage over those who rely on negative attacks aimed at destroying the plans of their opponents.
Will the Affordable Care Act be an Asset or Liability in 2014?
Those who think they are going to win a General Election race in 2014 with a message to repeal the Affordable Car Act are in for a big surprise. By the time the November elections roll around, more voters will see the Affordable Care Act positively than negatively.
The reasons for my argument are twofold: First, President Obama owes Democrats an election cycle during which he is not a drag on their campaigns. Second, President Obama’s legacy depends on a positive perception of the Affordable Care Act. He will do whatever it takes.
No one was more responsible for the “good shellacking” the Democrats suffered in the last mid-term election year, 2010, than President Obama. He put his agenda ahead of that of the voters, including Democrats who were far more concerned about their jobs than his healthcare legislation.
Many Democrats stayed home on Election Day 2010 in protest of the ill-chosen priorities of their President and Congressional leaders. The result of their low protest turnout was Republican legislative majorities throughout America, giving the GOP the prized responsibility for the decennial re-mapping of legislative and congressional districts.
Obama knows that putting his priorities ahead of those of the voters was responsible for the 63-seat shift in the U.S. House favoring Republicans in 2010, the largest shift since 1948. He also knows that his legacy is at risk in 2014 because the majorities in the U.S. House and Senate could be lost to Republicans if the Affordable Care Act continues to be seen as a debacle.
The only way Obama can turn around the negative perception of the Affordable Care Act is to correct the rollout problems, work tirelessly every day until Election Day 2014 to resell its value, and defer any politically threatening elements until after 2014, a tactic already well-used.
Yesterday, December 17, 2013, the White House announced that former Microsoft executive Kurt DelBene will take over the task of correcting all of the glitches with the Healthcare.gov website. DelBene was with Microsoft for 20 years, and was in charge of the highly profitable (and complex) Microsoft Office Suite. This is clear evidence of President Obama’s commitment to correcting the rollout problems; clear evidence of his ability to attract the best talent for the job.
As to what can be deferred, over 1,000 waivers have already been approved. Further, the Obama administration has put off employer requirements for a year and allowed health insurers to extend coverage for an extra year to all of those whose policies were canceled during the rollout.
If politically necessary, the President may also delay the requirement that all Americans have health insurance.
President Obama will do whatever it takes in 2014 to rebrand the Affordable Care Act because he owes Democrats an election cycle during which he is not a drag on their campaigns and he knows his legacy depends on a positive perception of the Affordable Care Act.
The Year of Our Nation’s Partisan Madness
Of course, conservative members of the U.S. House and Senate and their allied super PACs will also be attempting to mold the perception voters have of the Affordable Care Act. If they spend the typical 80% of their resources on attack ads, they will lose the argument. There is no way today’s Americans are going to allow any member of the least productive and lowest-rated Congress in history, conservative or liberal, to dictate the direction of this country.
Except for the hardliners on the left and the right, Americans are becoming more tolerant socially and more diverse demographically. We are in the middle of a demographic revolution. We are becoming more urban, more progressive and more supportive of government programs that work. If the Affordable Care Act begins to show signs of working, voters will grow to support it and the incumbents who voted for it … rather than those whose agenda is focused on destroying it.
We are a negative-weary electorate. We yearn for economic recovery, full employment, affordable healthcare and a correction of unsustainable government programs that undermine our financial integrity. Yet we have seen our hopes for solutions to national and state governmental problems dashed throughout 2013 by uncompromising Republicans and Democrats.
The year of our nation’s partisan madness demands candidates in 2014 who are optimistic and willing to collaborate on bipartisan plans to solve national and state problems. It will be the winning advantage.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription only $199: If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing at the SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription rate of only $199. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
Prepare for Attacks by Super PACs in 2014; Traditional NC Campaign Funding Marginalized November 27, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 23 7:13 am In the 2013 governor’s race in Virginia, California billionaire Tom Steyer spent $8 million independently on attack ads against Republican nominee Ken Cuccinelli through his NextGen Climate Action Committee. Steyer didn’t like Cuccinelli’s
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Prepare for Attacks by Super PACs in 2014; Traditional NC Campaign Funding Marginalized
November 27, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 23 7:13 am
In the 2013 governor’s race in Virginia, California billionaire Tom Steyer spent $8 million independently on attack ads against Republican nominee Ken Cuccinelli through his NextGen Climate Action Committee. Steyer didn’t like Cuccinelli’s environmental record.
Billionaire New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg also weighed in against Cuccinelli with over $1.6 million in his USA PAC. Bloomberg didn’t like Cuccinelli’s positions on gun control.
Cuccinelli raised about $20 million; Governor-Elect Democrat Terry McAuliffe $34 million. To put Cuccinelli’s $20 million war chest in perspective, two billionaires spent nearly half that amount against him. As a matter of fact, Steyer’s $8 million nearly matched the $8.5 million contributed to Cuccinelli by the Republican Governors Association.
Of course, there was outside spending for Cuccinelli as well. Americans for Prosperity, funded by the billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, paid for a statewide get-out-the-vote effort on behalf of the GOP nominee.
That’s what we can expect in North Carolina in 2014. Super PAC attacks, where one or two checks from out-of-state wealthy donors can marginalize the total given by all traditional in-state campaign funding sources.
North Carolina has 8 statewide races in 2014: 4 of 7 seats on the state Supreme Court, 3 of 15 Court of Appeals seats and U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan’s seat. Americans for Prosperity is already busy in North Carolina running attack ads against Senator Hagan. According to North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation’s 2014 Independent Expenditure Tracker, over $4 million has already been spent in the U.S. Senate race, $3.2 million (77%) having been spent against Hagan.
Most independent expenditure organizations spend almost all of the money on negative ads. In 2012, $1.3 billion was spent independent of any campaign, with 77% spent on negative attacks. Some, like Priorities USA Action, a Super PAC “Committed to the reelection of President Obama,” spent 100% of their funds ($65 million) on attack ads.
What is staggering is the ready availability of hundreds of millions of dollars. It’s just too easy. Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS spent $188.9 million in 2012.
Crossroads GPS Contributor notes:
- 3 largest contributions: $22.5 million, $18 million and $10 million
- 53 contributors that gave $1 million or more
- Names of contributors are not required to be reported
- Rove’s Super PAC American Crossroads spent another $117 during 2011/2012
- 90% of money spent on negative attacks, most against President Obama
For emphasis: 3 individuals gave a combined total of $50 million to Karl Rove in 2012.
The political potential of independent expenditures was not fully appreciated until the 2004 race for the White House between GOP President George W. Bush and his opponent U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. On August 5, 2004, one week after Sen. Kerry was celebrated as the Democratic Party’s nominee for President of the United States, TV ads discrediting his Vietnam War record were aired by an independent group known as Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
By the time Election Day rolled around, $26 million had been spent independently attacking Kerry’s integrity; accusing him of lying and selling out his comrades later as an antiwar activist. Those ads kept Kerry on the defensive the entire fall. President George W. Bush won reelection with 50.7% of the popular vote, the narrowest win of any incumbent president in history.
Again, what is most significant about the Swift Boat Veterans $26 million is that one individual, billionaire Bob Perry from Houston, Texas, gave the group $4.4 million. Perry gave $23.5 million in 2012 to Super PACs.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription only $199: If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing at the SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription rate of only $199. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
Virginia Tea Leaves Reveal Tea Party Threat to North Carolina Republicans in 2014 Races November 14, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 22 11:13 am In 1999, I was invited to speak in Richmond, Virginia to the historic first joint caucus meeting of the newly elected Republican majorities in the state Senate and House of Delegates. It
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Virginia Tea Leaves Reveal Tea Party Threat to North Carolina Republicans in 2014 Races
November 14, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 22 11:13 am
In 1999, I was invited to speak in Richmond, Virginia to the historic first joint caucus meeting of the newly elected Republican majorities in the state Senate and House of Delegates. It was the first Republican majority in the state Senate in Virginia history, which dates back to 1619 when the House of Burgesses was established in Jamestown.
Why was I, a North Carolinian, invited to speak on such an auspicious occasion? Because one year earlier, 1998, Republicans in the North Carolina House lost their majority after only four years; the only Republican legislative majority in North Carolina in the 20th Century. Virginia Republicans wanted to know why so they could avoid the same fate.
I didn’t say a word during the opening of my presentation, which consisted of about two dozen newspaper articles displayed by an overhead projector. I put the articles up on the screen one at a time and stood silent as they read the headlines and lead paragraphs. “Rep. Nichols says Speaker Brubaker is a liar!,” screamed the headline of a news story in which GOP Rep. John Nichols, Craven County, accused GOP House Speaker Harold Brubaker, Randolph County, of not keeping his word to appoint him as Co-Chair of the House Appropriations Committee.
One by one, headline by headline, they got the picture. The North Carolina Republican House caucus members had turned on each other over issues of power and prestige, and most often over ideological differences. “You have to decide if you want to be right or if you want to govern,” I said, remembering how our GOP caucus had divided into self-destructive feuding camps. Virginia and North Carolina are a lot alike. We have much to learn from each other.
Every four years, Virginia election results have great predictive value for North Carolina’s next elections. For instance, in 2009, one year after President Obama won both Virginia and North Carolina thanks to historic high turnout of African Americans and young people, we saw the turnout of black voters and young voters plummet in Virginia. In 2009, women and independent voters broke in favor of Republicans after voting decisively in favor Democrats one year earlier.
Low turnout of the Democratic base and the shifting political sentiments of women and independent voters in 2009 not only helped elect a Republican governor in Virginia, they helped elect Republican Chris Christie in New Jersey and Republican Scott Brown in Teddy Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts.
In 2010, Virginia’s election trends repeated themselves over and over, leading to the largest gain by any political party in Congress since 1948 and a GOP wave election year that led to majority Republican legislatures all over the nation, including the historic first Senate and House Republican majorities in North Carolina since 1898.
That’s why a close look at Virginia’s 2013 election results has great predictive value for North Carolina’s 2014 congressional, legislative and appellate judiciary races.
#1 Reason Why Republicans Lost Virginia but Won New Jersey in 2013
Since 1989, NBC News and The Wall Street Journal have hired two of America’s most preeminent polling firms, Peter D. Hart Research Associates, a Democratic firm, and Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, to collaborate on national surveys. The bipartisan teamwork on the series of surveys gives the results high reliability, a rarity in this era of advocacy polling and news.
The most recent NBC News and The Wall Street Journal survey, conducted October 25-28, 2013, shows why Republicans lost the race for governor in Virginia but won the New Jersey governor’s race. Here are the telling questions and results:
Question 13: Do you want [Democratic and Republican] leaders in the [U.S.] House and Senate to make compromises to gain consensus on the current budget debate, or do you want them to stick to their positions even if it means not being able to gain consensus on the budget?
- 71% of Independents said “Compromise;” 18% said “Stick to Positions”
- 68% of Democrats said “Compromise;” 23% said “Stick to Positions”
- 46% of Republicans said “Compromise;” 47% said “Stick to Positions”
Republican voters, like the U.S. House Republican caucus, are divided against each other on the issue of whether to “Compromise” or “Stick to Positions” on matters relating to the nation’s budget. Democrats, and Independents are overwhelmingly in favor of finding compromise.
It is Tea Party Republicans in the U.S. Congress with their “Stick to Positions” rather than “Compromise” recalcitrance who are seen as most responsible for the October government shutdown. It was the October government shutdown that created a national backlash against the Republican brand, especially against Tea Party Republicans.
Question 5: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups. I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.
- NJ Republican Governor Christie had the highest positive-over-negative net of +16
- The Democratic Party had an unfavorable positive-over-negative net of -3
- Pres. Obama had an unfavorable positive-over-negative net of -4
- Ted Cruz (Tea Party U.S. Senator) unfavorable positive-over-negative net of -11
- Mitch McConnell, GOP U.S. Senate leader, had an unfavorable net of -17
- Harry Reid, Democrat U.S. Senate leader, had an unfavorable net of -17
- The Tea Party Movement had an unfavorable net of -24
- John Boehner, GOP U.S. House Speaker, had an unfavorable net of -26
- The Republican Party had an unfavorable positive-over-negative net of -31
Now remember, this poll was taken a week before the Virginia elections by two of America’s most preeminent polling firms, a Democratic firm and a Republican firm. When asked if they supported the Tea Party, 70% of the respondents said “No,” only 22% said “Yes.” Only 1-in-5 of the survey’s respondents said they were “Liberal.” It’s not just liberals who see the Tea Party negatively, it’s half of the Republicans and most of the Independents.
Yesterday, November 13, 2013, USA Today featured a story titled Top McAuliffe, Cuccinelli aides agree shutdown was key, in which Chris LaCivita, chief political strategist for Virginia’s gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli, and Ellen Qualls, Democratic governor-elect Terry McAuliffe’s senior adviser, agreed that the Republican-led government shutdown, more than anything else, drove the election results. “More than anything … it is what cost us the race,” said LaCivita, who described how the shutdown overshadowed the ObamaCare rollout debacle.
You can point to many reasons why Cuccinelli lost the governor’s race, like being outspent because the Republican establishment would not finance his campaign, like the fact that he turned off women voters with his hard right social conservatism, or like the fact that McAuliffe’s campaign and a high tech turnout operation that reversed the 2009 trends among blacks and young voters to more favorable numbers. But ultimately it all comes down to guilt by association with those responsible for the government shutdown within weeks of Election Day, the Tea Party.
If the Tea Party recruits candidates like Ken Cuccinelli in North Carolina in 2014, those who believe that it is more important to “Stick to Positions” than “Compromise” at a time in our nation’s history when solutions to great problems are desperately need, then they will suffer the same fate. They will drive away financial support, they will drive away women, young people and independent voters, they will weaken the Republican brand and the GOP’s chances of winning races for Congress, the legislature and the appellate courts in North Carolina.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription only $199: If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing at the SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription rate of only $199. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
Warning! Dysfunctional Government is Creating Stormy Conditions Hazardous to Incumbents October 30, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 21 11:13 am Political Weather Alert! Dysfunctional government, now the nation’s #1 problem, is creating conditions favorable for the development of severe storms in 2014 capable of producing career-ending political winds and flash floods that have the potential
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Warning! Dysfunctional Government is Creating Stormy Conditions Hazardous to Incumbents
October 30, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 21 11:13 am
Political Weather Alert! Dysfunctional government, now the nation’s #1 problem, is creating conditions favorable for the development of severe storms in 2014 capable of producing career-ending political winds and flash floods that have the potential of wiping out the majority parties in a watch area that includes Raleigh, North Carolina and Washington, DC.
Incumbents who have always managed to duck and deflect responsibility for nebulous issues like “the economy” or “deficit spending,” will have a hard time evading the issue of dysfunctional government. They are the dysfunctional government.
According to a survey of American adults conducted by Gallup in early October, “Dysfunctional Government” is now the number one problem facing the nation. It is seen as a problem greater than the economy, greater than the national debt, greater than the number of Americans living at or near the poverty level, greater than unemployment, greater than war or foreign policy or social issues.
The percentage of Americans who say that the nation’s number one problem is “Dysfunctional Government” is the highest since 1939. Voters are fed up and are not going to take it anymore.
The Gallup survey reflects the frustration American voters have with leaders in Washington, DC who have stuck to their ideological biases come hell or high water and refused to work with the opposition to find compromise solutions to unsustainable problems like entitlements and the national debt. Americans now view politicians who stick to their beliefs rather than compromise as the cause for the government shutdown and the wimpish kick-the-can-down-the-road solution to the nation’s problems.
This month, Congressional job approval plummeted into single digits as congressional debate eroded to a juvenile level of partisan bickering and buck passing. That reflects the dismal October average of the number of Americans satisfied with the direction of the country, 20.1% according to Real Clear Politics, with 73% saying that the country is on the wrong track.
The Real Clear Politics website also shows the average job approval for Congress during October at 8.4%, with 84.7% of Americans disapproving. Here are examples:
- Fox News poll October 20-22: Congressional Approval 9%; Disapproval 85%
- CBS News poll October 18-21: Congressional Approval 9%; Disapproval 85%
- ABC News/Wash Post October 17-20: Congressional approval 9%; Disapproval 89%
This October, according to Gallup, satisfaction with government plummeted to “the lowest government satisfaction rating in Gallup’s history of asking the question dating back to 1971.” That’s what drove the America public to say the number one national problem is “Dysfunctional Government.”
Republicans Get Most of the Blame; Democrats a Close Second
Unfortunately for Republicans, the GOP gets the brunt of the public blame for the dysfunction in Washington. On October 9, Gallup released a statement saying that the Republican Party’s favorability was the lowest favorable rating measured for either party since Gallup began asking the question in 1992. Only 28% of Americans had a favorable view of the Republican Party, with 43% saying they had a favorable view of the Democratic Party. A whopping 62% of Americans have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party; 49% view the Democratic Party unfavorably.
Critical thought: If only 28% of Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, that means that a lot of Republicans do not have a favorable view the GOP. Will they stay home in 2014? They stayed home in the 2006 non-presidential election year. That’s why Republicans lost control of congress. Democrats stayed home in the 2010 non-presidential election year. That’s why Republicans swept the nation with wins at all levels of politics. Who will stay home in 2014?
Even before the federal government was reopened and the debt ceiling crisis was kicked down the road, voters were showing record-breaking angst toward the Members of Congress:
- A national survey by the Pew Research Center conducted October 9-13 reveals that 74% of American voters would like to see most Members of Congress defeated in 2014.
- During election years 2010 and 2006, years in which the majority party in the US House was thrown out, only 57% wanted to see most Members of Congress defeated.
In a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted October 17-20, which showed the job approval of Congress to its lowest point in 39 years, 53% of Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown to only 29% who blame President Obama. A USA Today/Princeton poll conducted October 17-20 shows 39% of Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown, 19% blame the Democrats.
In national surveys conducted since the resolution of the national debt crisis and the opening of the federal government, congressional Republican disapproval has risen to 79%, with 63% disapproving of the job Democrats are doing and 53% disapproving of the job President Obama is doing.
With so many Republicans around country joining Democrats and Independents in blaming the GOP (79%) for the #1 problem in America, dysfunctional government, you can see why their storm warnings are up. Likewise, with so many Democrats around country joining Republicans and Independents in blaming fellow Democrats (63%) for the #1 problem in America, dysfunctional government, you can see why their storm warnings are up.
Dysfunction is Created by the Loss of the Political Middle
In 1982, when the Congress was brimming with conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans, 344 of 435 members in the US House of Representatives were rated by the National Journal somewhere in the political middle between the most liberal Republican and the most conservative Democrat.
By 2002, the number of conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans had eroded so greatly that only 137 members were rated somewhere between the most liberal Republican and the most conservative Democrat. Last year, only 11 of 435 members of Congress were rated in the political middle.
The political middle is gone. An era of ideological ruthlessness more reminiscent of the Middle Ages has produced a dysfunctional government. Absolute loyalty to the ideology is demanded or else.
You’d better not be caught being a statesman in the United States Congress today!
Political Weather Alert! Dysfunctional government, now the nation’s #1 problem, is creating conditions favorable for the development of severe storms in 2014 capable of producing career-ending political winds and flash floods that have the potential of wiping out the majority parties in a watch area that includes Raleigh, North Carolina and Washington, DC.
Elected officials beware. The #1 problem in America is no longer a nebulous issue that you can dodge or deflect like “the economy” or “unemployment” or “deficit spending.” The #1 problem is you.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription only $199: If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing at the SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription rate of only $199. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND