Mark Walker Wins GOP Primary Runoff for Rep. Howard Coble’s Seat in the U.S. House July 16, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 18 12:13 am Walker fanned the flames of resentment of super PAC attack ads run against him and two other Guilford County candidates during April and May, and tied Berger to Washington
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Mark Walker Wins GOP Primary Runoff for Rep. Howard Coble’s Seat in the U.S. House
July 16, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 18 12:13 am
Walker fanned the flames of resentment of super PAC attack ads run against him and two other Guilford County candidates during April and May, and tied Berger to Washington and Raleigh political insiders wielding outside money.
On Wednesday, July 9, 2014, Mark Walker called a press conference at the Guilford County GOP Headquarters to accuse Phil Berger, Jr’s father, Phil Berger, Sr., of using his influence as President Pro Tempore of the North Carolina Senate, “to steer political contributions to the super PAC supporting his son,” and of collusion between that super PAC, Keep Conservatives United, and the Berger campaign.
There was no evidence to support the claim. That did not matter to the crowd of angry Guilford County Republicans there to show their support for Walker. They were certain that Phil Berger, Jr. had led the May primary election due to “unnecessarily vicious and unfair campaign attack ad mailers,” attack ads in mailboxes paid for by outside sources of money, specifically, an independent expenditure fund named Keep Conservatives United.
The mailers were run against Guilford County candidates Mark Walker, Zach Matheny and Bruce VonCannon in April and May. Although the Walker, Matheny and VonCannon voters were offended by the mailings, they were not certain at first who was behind the attacks until positive mailers from Keep Conservatives United began showing up in support of Phil Berger, Jr.
During the six weeks leading up to the May primary election, Keep Conservatives United spent $49,414 in support of Phil Berger, Jr. They spent $29,600 against VonCannon, $18,451 against Matheny, and $9,186 against Walker … all from Guilford County. As of July 15, 2014, Keep Conservatives United had spent $98,319 against Walker, and $102,215 for Phil Berger, Jr.
Guilford County is the political epicenter of the district. Remapping in 2011 gave Guilford County 43% of the district, with Rockingham County, Phil Berger, Jr.’s home county, only 12%. There are nearly five times as many Republicans in Guilford County as in Rockingham County.
The Guilford County candidates who lost on May 6 were popular local GOP leaders and strong fundraisers. A total of $1,374,080 was reported by the nine May primary candidates on the April 16 FEC reports.Over $1 million of that total was raised by the Guilford County candidates.
They lost to Phil Berger, Jr., from Rockingham County, with only 12% of the district’s voters, because of “unnecessarily vicious and unfair campaign attack ad mailers” paid for by outside sources.
Walker fanned the flames of resentment of the super PAC attack ads run against him and the two other Guilford County candidates, and fueled those flames by tying Berger to Washington and Raleigh political insiders wielding outside money.
Ultimately, the resentment of unfair ads funded from outsiders turned into a political firestorm that drove turnout up to twice the number anticipated based on historic precedent. The final tally, with 241 of 241 precincts reporting, was 18,871 votes for Mark Walker; 12,550 votes for Phil Berger, Jr.
Mark Walker, who began his quest to serve in the United States Congress in March, 2013, is favored to win the race this November against Democrat Laura Fjeld, former general counsel for the University of North Carolina System. This is a Republican-friendly district where Romney beat Obama in 2012 by 54% to 45%, and McCrory won by 58% to 40%.
NCFEF has the 6th Congressional District rated “Strong Republican” on the group’s Conventional Voting Behavior Ratings. Stu Rothenberg, Rothenberg Political Report, has North Carolina’s 6th Congressional District categorized “Currently Safe Republican.” Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report, rates this district “Solid Republican” on his Partisan Voter Index.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Phil Berger, Jr. Likely to Win Next Tuesday’s GOP Runoff for U.S. Rep. Howard Coble’s Seat July 7, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 17 8:13 am Berger has Money, Organization and an Opponent holding a Smoking Gun Phil Berger, Jr., Rockingham County District Attorney and son of NC Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, Sr., is
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Phil Berger, Jr. Likely to Win Next Tuesday’s GOP Runoff for U.S. Rep. Howard Coble’s Seat
July 7, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 17 8:13 am
Berger has Money, Organization and an Opponent holding a Smoking Gun
Phil Berger, Jr., Rockingham County District Attorney and son of NC Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, Sr., is likely to win the GOP primary runoff race next Tuesday for retiring U.S. Rep. Howard Coble’s seat, thanks to clear advantages in money, messaging and mobilization.
Berger’s opponent, Mark Walker, a former pastor at Lawndale Baptist Church in Greensboro, has been on the defensive through much of the runoff due to allegations of flip-flopping on “granting amnesty to illegal immigrants.” A candidate seen as a flip-flopper on an issue as important to Republicans as “illegal immigration” is a candidate out of favor with conservative hardliners, the most likely voters to turn out in a GOP Primary runoff.
Mark Walker has also struggled to raise a competitive campaign war chest, or to attract the backing of an independent group like Keep Conservatives United, a super PAC which has spent about $200,000 to aid Berger during the primary and runoff.
According to a Sunday, July 6, 2014, Greensboro News & Record story, Berger leads Walker in fundraising race, “Since April, the super PAC Keep Conservatives United has spent about $92,000 in support of Berger and about $43,600 to oppose Walker.”
The News & Record story, written by Jennifer Fernandez, notes that Berger has raised twice as much money as Walker during the latest reporting period, and that Berger has spent a total of $433,922 to $274,300 spent by Walker, per the latest FEC reports.
Money means having the resources to do everything right. Messaging; Mobilization. It is a critical advantage if you are from Rockingham County, like Berger, which has only 12% of the district’s voters, running against a candidate from Guilford County, which has 43% of the voters.
Guilford County 43% Voters; Rockingham 12%; District Solid Republican
According to NCFEF’s Almanac of NC Politics 2014 Primary Edition, Guilford County, Mark Walker’s home county, dominates the 6th Congressional District with 43% of all registered voters. Rockingham County, Phil Berger, Jr.’s home county, has only 12%.
- Guilford County 43% of the district, Alamance 14%, Rockingham County 12%, Surry 9%, Stokes 6%, Person 5%, Durham 5%, Caswell 3%, Orange 3% and Granville 1%
- Guilford County, the political epicenter of the district, will always have an advantage in the 6th Congressional District race and will need to be courted diligently and effectively
- The district has 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 25% Unaffiliated voters
- Romney beat Obama here in 2012 by 54% to 45%; McCrory won by 58% to 40%
NCFEF has the 6th Congressional District rated “Strong Republican” on the group’s Conventional Voting Behavior Ratings. Stu Rothenberg, Rothenberg Political Report, has North Carolina’s 6th Congressional District categorized “Currently Safe Republican.” Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report, rates this district “Solid Republican” on his Partisan Voter Index.
That means that the winner of next week’s GOP primary runoff is favored to win the Fall General Election race against Democrat Laura Fjeld, former general counsel for the University of North Carolina System.
Turnout: 95%-96% will NOT VOTE; 6,000-7,000 votes wins
- July 17, 2012 was last election with a GOP Primary runoff in congressional races
- Only 220,635 voters participated statewide (3.58% total turnout) on 7/17/2012
- GOP Congressman Richard Hudson won his 2012 runoff race with 10,635 total votes, reflecting a 75% drop off in Republicans participating in the 2nd round runoff
- GOP Congressman Mark Meadows won his 2012 runoff race with a total of 17,427 votes; reflecting a 76% drop off in Republicans participating in the 2nd round runoff
On May 6, 2014, a total of 44,136 votes were cast in the 6th District GOP primary race. Based on historical 2nd round drop-off ranges of 75% to 80%, the July 15 GOP 6th District primary runoff turnout is likely to be 12,000 – 14,000 total votes.
That means as few as 6,000 – 7,000 votes could win the runoff … and the congressional seat!
Keep Conservatives United Exploit Walker’s Smoking Gun
In the July 3, 2014 Rhino Times, a conservative weekly newspaper, the commentary by John Hammer titled Walker’s Positions Evolve; Berger’s Remain Steady, described Walker as “a candidate with his finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing.”
A candidate with that reputation cannot win a Republican primary runoff race where the most likely voters are conservative hardliners who believe that right is right and wrong is wrong and anything between the two is not worth discussing.
Walker has been against the ropes ever since U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his campaign on June 10, 2014, in part because of his support for the immigration reform principles of the DREAM ACT. Within days, the pro-Berger Keep Conservatives United super PAC ran ads exposing two smoking gun quotes by Mark Walker on the immigration issue, quotes from respected local sources like the Rhino Times and Walker’s own website:
“I would propose legislation that would provide an incremental pathway to legalization for 12 million illegal immigrants.”
“I propose ‘Pathway to Security’ legislation that would provide an incremental pathway to citizenship for 12 million illegal immigrants.”
Walker’s response was anemic: “Truthfully, my position on this issue as a minister was not well articulated.” It was also confusing. Being for a pathway to “legalization” but against “amnesty” is a position that requires elaboration. If you have to elaborate, you lose voters.
Walker has set himself up to be portrayed as a flip-flopper on immigration. Not good if you are counting on uncompromising ideological purists to turn out and vote for you.
Berger’s Counterpunch as Good as it Gets
Berger showed his ability to counterpunch during the final weeks of the first primary race when one of his opponents funded an attack against him claiming that as Rockingham County District Attorney “he allowed a child molester to get off with an easy sentence.”
Fortuitously, a NC Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission study was released that gave the Berger camp the perfect counterpunch, one that completely discredited the attack. The report concluded that: “Defendants who are sentenced to prison in Rockingham County receive the most severe punishments available, nearly four times the state average.”
- DA Berger’s office is ranked 1st in criminal defendants with the lengthiest sentences
- Average Rockingham Co. max sentence is 13 months longer than state average
- One of top three counties in state for “the longest minimum jail sentence”
As a response to an attack ad, it doesn’t get any better than that!
Meanwhile, because of limited resources, Walker has not been in a position to counter the barrage of attack ads on the “immigration flip-flop,” ads that are certainly discouraging to many Republicans who otherwise would likely have been Walker voters.
Granted, Mark Walker has volunteers from his church community that he has networked since he began his campaign in March 2013. And, he has a small, but very loyal staff. But, without operating capital he will not be able to counter the “he flip-flopped on immigration” attack ads.
Endorsements
Most endorsements are not politically significant: Campaign news over the last few weeks has included announcements of endorsements of Phil Berger, Jr. by former Greensboro Mayor Robbie Perkins, and announcements of endorsements of Mark Walker by GOP primary losers Mark Harris and Heather Grant. Walker also touted the endorsement of conservative activist Phyllis Schlafly, who turns 90 in August.
Voters are indifferent to endorsements. They rarely influence the outcome of elections.
If there is an exception, it is Billy Yow’s endorsement of Phil Berger, Jr. last week. Yow, a former Guilford County commissioner, is a “Give ‘Um Hell Harry” hard-core conservative highly regarded by right-wing conservative Republicans in the area.
Last Friday, July 4, 2014, Greensboro’s News & Record ran a story on the endorsement that described Yow as, “… a popular conservative political brand in Guilford, the largest county in the sprawling 6th District. Brash and colorful, Yow is known for cutting remarks, fiery speeches and a no-holds-barred approach to dealing with Democrats.”
If Billy Yow says Phil Berger, Jr. is a solid conservative, you can bet Phil Berger, Jr. is a solid conservative. Yow’s endorsement matters. Like Howard Coble’s endorsement of Phil Berger, Jr. matters. Especially to voters most likely to turn out in the July 15 GOP primary runoff.
Walker has also been able to win several prized endorsements including:
- Guilford County Sheriff B.J. Barnes and Terry Johnson, the Alamance County Sheriff
- Guilford County Commissioner Alan Branson
- Bill Wright, former Guilford Co. GOP Chair and Mayor
- Civil rights leader Clarence Henderson
- Summerfield Mayor Tim Sessoms and Stokesdale Mayor Randy Braswell
Phil Berger, Jr.’s endorsements include:
- Congressman Howard Coble
- Tony Wilkins, former Guilford County GOP chairman who is frequently referred to as “The Lone Conservative Voice” on the Greensboro City Council
- North Carolina Sen. Trudy Wade
- Marty Kotis, a prominent conservative Republican who made his money in real estate
- Guilford County Commissioner Linda Shaw
- Billy Yow, former Guilford County Commissioner
Key Dates/Conclusions
Final debate July 11 is a manageable risk: The final week of the campaign is the peak period of exhaustion and stress. Not a time to be taking risks with debates IF you are winning.
However, Berger’s willingness to accept an invitation to debate Walker on July 11 takes the “he’s afraid to debate me” issue off the table, leaving Walker with little to counter Berger’s attack machine. Berger wins the debate by not losing the debate due to a gaffe. A manageable risk.
The debate will be recorded here in Raleigh at TWC News, with “Capital Tonight” anchor Tim Boyum as the moderator. It will air at 7:30 pm, July 11 on the TWC affiliate channels.
- Absentee Voting by Mail began May 31, 2014
- Early voting began July 3, 2014; ends July 12, 2014
- Election Day July 15, 2014
Phil Berger, Jr., Rockingham County District Attorney and son of NC Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, Sr., is likely to win the GOP primary runoff race next Tuesday for retiring U.S. Rep. Howard Coble’s seat, thanks to clear advantages in money, messaging and mobilization.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
If 2014 is a Referendum on the White House, then Sen. Hagan is in Right Much Trouble UPDATE July 2, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 16 8:13 am If you research the political adage, Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, you will discover that Democrats agree UNLESS the president is a Democrat,
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If 2014 is a Referendum on the White House, then Sen. Hagan is in Right Much Trouble
UPDATE July 2, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 16 8:13 am
If you research the political adage, Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, you will discover that Democrats agree UNLESS the president is a Democrat, and Republicans agree UNLESS the president is a Republican. Unfortunately for all partisans, history agrees that midterm elections are a referendum on the White House no matter the party of the occupant.
Since 1910, during President Taft’s administration, the party in the White House has lost an average 30 seats in the U.S. House and 4 seats in the U.S. Senate during midterm elections. There have been only two exceptions; only one exception if you look at second term, midterm elections like 2014. Exception: Bill Clinton in 1998 (Democrats won 5 seats in House; 0 Senate).
That’s it. One exception since 1910.
In 2006, during Republican President George W. Bush’s second-term, midterm elections, the GOP lost 30 seats in the House and six in the Senate. That year U.S. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said, “The upcoming midterm elections are a referendum on the policies of Bush.”
Now that a Democrat is in the White House during a second-term, midterm election year, you hear Democratic leaders like DNC Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz say on NBC’s Meet the Press, “No, absolutely not,” the November midterm elections are not a referendum on the Obama Administration. Apparently, Schultz has forgotten 2010, President Obama’s first-term, midterm election year during which Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate.
Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House. Period. As for now, there is an increasing lack of faith in this White House. Especially among the pivotal independent voters.
NPR Says Independent voters are breaking Republican in 2014
A new NPR (National Public Radio) poll released June 19, 2014, shows Pres. Obama’s Job Approval at only 38% among likely voters in the 12 states with competitive Senate races (which includes North Carolina). Perhaps more indicative of who is likely to have a political advantage this Fall are the survey responses by Independent voters that relate to whom voters trust by issue:
- On the Economy, 48% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 28% trust Democrats
- On Healthcare, 44% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 35% trust Democrats
- On the Future of the Middle Class, Independent voters give both parties 38%
- On Foreign Policy, 52% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 26% trust Democrats
The poll was conducted by a bipartisan team that included Democrat Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps and Republican Whit Ayers of Resurgent Republic.
Not only did Republicans fair better than Democrats among Independent voters, Republicans did better than Democrats on the generic ballot question, “If the election for U.S. Senate in your state were held today, would you vote for [Name], the Republican candidate, or [Name], the Democratic candidate?”
- 46% of all voters surveyed said they plan to vote Republican for U.S. Senate; 43% of all voters surveyed said they plan to vote Democratic in their state’s U.S. Senate race
- Among Independent voters, 46% plan to vote Republican for U.S. Senate this Fall to only 38% who plan to vote Democratic
New York Times/CBS News poll documents loss of faith in Obama
On Monday, June 23, a New York Times/CBS News poll showed that only 40% of Americans Approve of the job President Obama is doing; 54% Disapprove. As if that was not bad enough, the poll said the results document, “… an increasing lack of faith in the president and his leadership.”
If President Obama’s job approval remains in the low to mid 40s this Fall, he will be a drag on all Democrats running for the U.S. Senate, including Kay Hagan. Here are the latest numbers:
- Per Real Clear Politics: President Obama’s average Job Approval is a dismal 41.6%, with 54% Disapproving, for a net negative -12.4%
- RCP Obama’s Approval on the economy: a net negative -16.3%, with only 39.6% of Americans approving; 55.9% disapproving
- NY Times/CBS News poll (released 6/23) shows 58% of Americans Disapprove of the way President Obama is handling foreign policy
- NY Times/CBS News poll shows 40% Job Approval; 54% Disapproval
- WSJ/NBC News poll (released 6/18) has Obama’s approval of his handling foreign policy a new low of 37%
- WSJ/NBC News poll shows Hispanics who view Pres. Obama favorably and approve of the job he is doing dropped from 67% in January 2013 to 44%
- WSJ/NBC News poll 54% of Americans said they no longer feel the president “is able to lead the country and get the job done,” while 42% said he can
- Quinnipiac poll (released 7/2) shows a plurality of registered voters in U.S. believe that Obama is the “worst president” since WWII
- George W. Bush was second worst, followed by Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter
- Reagan was “best president” since WWII, followed by Clinton and Kennedy
- 45% said U.S. would be “better off if Romney won;” 38% said better off w/Obama
- 54% say the Obama administration is “not competent” at running the government
Too Many Problems for Obama’s Job Approval to Recover by Fall
A growing list of scandals, as well as ongoing domestic and foreign policy challenges, suggest that Obama’s Job Approval will not likely recover enough by Oct/Nov for him to be a positive force for Democrats. Current problems driving down the President’s Job Approval include:
- IRS targeting “Tea Party” and other conservative PACs
- IRS lost email files; Lois Lerner and 5 others
- Veterans Admin Scandal (Vets dying while waiting for care)
- Questions about Obama’s competence (including Democrats and media)
- Governance by Executive Order
- Prisoner swap (5 Guantanamo Taliban prisoners for Sgt. Bergdahl)
- Iraq disintegrating (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)
- Syria and the “red line” (chemical weapons) blunder
- Afghanistan
- Ukraine (Russian invasion)
- Benghazi terrorist attack (deaths of four U.S. diplomats, including the Ambassador)
- NSA scandal (data-gathering of internet communications and phone calls)
- Edward Snowden leaks of classified NSA documents
- DOJ subpoena of AP reports’ phone records from Verizon
- Debt/Unsustainable deficit spending; unsustainable entitlements
- Unemployed workers; Food Stamps; Mortgages
- ObamaCare (Affordable Care Act) chronic negatives
If 2014 races are a referendum on President Obama, Democrats like North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan, a Guilford County Democrat, will lose to challengers like Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the House from Mecklenburg County in battleground states around the nation. Add the GOP’s unity and high enthusiasm for voting this Fall, and you can see the makings of a good year for Republicans.
Like it or not, the fact is that since 1910, the party in the White House has lost an average 30 seats in the U.S. House and 4 seats in the U.S. Senate during midterm elections.
Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House. Period.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Eric Cantor’s Loss and a Hundred Million Reasons Republicans Can’t Fight the Last War in 2014 June 11, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 15 10:13 am Yesterday, June 10, 2014, for the first time in American history, the sitting U.S. House Majority Leader lost a campaign for reelection. Why? Many conservative Republicans are claiming today
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Eric Cantor’s Loss and a Hundred Million Reasons Republicans Can’t Fight the Last War in 2014
June 11, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 15 10:13 am
Yesterday, June 10, 2014, for the first time in American history, the sitting U.S. House Majority Leader lost a campaign for reelection. Why?
Many conservative Republicans are claiming today that U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, a Virginia Republican, lost his race for reelection because of the influence of the Tea Party or because of the immigration issue. Wrong. Here is why he lost:
- Eric Cantor was not a good Congressman
- Cantor and his staff had the reputation of being arrogant and aloof
- Cantor spent too much time positioning himself to run for House Speaker and not enough time positioning himself back home to run for reelection
- Cantor let his power go to his head; he didn’t think he was vulnerable
- Cantor was so despised by his own voters that a $5.4 million to $207,000 fundraising advantage and a 34-point lead in the polls couldn’t save him
- Cantor lost by 56% to 44% because of hubris; ego run amok
- Cantor lost despite a staff of 23 to his opponent’s 2 staffers because he was dismissive
The national Tea Party groups like Americans for Prosperity, Tea Party Nation and Freedom Works cannot claim victory in the downfall of Eric Cantor because they did not spend one penny backing his opponent, David Brat, a Randolph-Macon College economics professor.
Brat spent only $122,000 on ads arguing that Cantor had become liberal because of his support for a pathway to citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants and because of his votes for budget deals. You don’t win on the issues with ads when you are outspent 26-to-1.
The Tea Party didn’t win this election. Eric Cantor lost the election.
This was not an anti-establishment anti-incumbent vote. Only one incumbent member of the U.S. House has lost this year: Ralph Hall, the oldest member of Congress at 91-years old.
This was an anti-Eric Cantor vote. An anti-Eric Cantor’s staff vote.
Oh, and he also lost because thought that he could win in 2014 like he always had; that he didn’t need to do anything different in 2014. That he could fight the last war.
A Hundred Million Reasons Not to Fight the Last War
There is an old saying, “generals are always fighting the last war, especially if they won it.” That you can rely on the strategy and tactics that got you where you are.
The classic illustration of generals fighting the last war is the story of the building of the French Maginot Line in the 1930s. The Maginot Line was a series of fortifications and gun emplacements along the border considered a brilliant military advantage for the next Great War … a strategic military advantage based on WW I experiences.
In World War II, the French Maginot Line was of little worth. The Germans outflanked and overran them in about six months. Remember, the French had to be liberated by us!
Republican leaders who think they are going to parlay their power into a financial advantage over Democrats in 2014 may be in for a rude awakening. The tactics for raising money and winning political races in 2014 are as different as World War II was from World War I.
Today, one billionaire can turn all of the majority party’s money into chump change.
Case in point can be found in a Washington Post story on June 10, 2014 about how billionaire Tom Steyer, a California hedge-fund manager, “has vowed to spend up to $100 million in 2014 to help elect Democrats who are committed to fighting global warming.”
In the 2013 governor’s race in Virginia, Steyer spent $8 million independently on attack ads against Republican nominee Ken Cuccinelli through his NextGen Climate Action Committee. USA PAC, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s super PAC, spent $1.6 million against Cuccinelli on the issue of gun control.
It took Cuccinelli all year to raise a $20 million war chest from thousands of contributors. It took two billionaires the time it takes to sign a check to raise half that amount.
Steyer’s $100 million commitment to helping Democrats keep the majority in the U.S. Senate is the one hundred million reasons North Carolina Republicans should not fight the last war in 2014.
Always Remember that You are Vulnerable
Last year, I wrote a series of reports titled, Ten Keys to Republican Political Longevity. The first key was, Always Remember that You are Vulnerable.
Eric Cantor lost because he and his staff didn’t think he was vulnerable. He was not defeated by the Tea Party; he defeated himself. The immigration issue is not why Eric Cantor lost, and he didn’t lose due to an anti-establishment anti-incumbent vote. Eric Cantor defeated himself.
This was personal, not political. This was an anti-Eric Cantor and his staff vote.
Those with power, like today’s North Carolina Republicans, can learn much from Eric Cantor’s loss. You can’t go off to the capital city and do as you please, putting your political power higher on the priority list than those you represent, and expect to get reelected.
And, you can’t fight the last war. That’s what Cantor and his staff did.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
No NC Congressional Seat Targeted by Democratic Congressional Campaign’s $44 million Fall TV Buy May 29, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 14 10:13 am Per AP Thurs, May 29, 2014: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has begun reserving “almost $44 million in advertising time” with television stations in 39 fall races. North Carolina Implications: No
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No NC Congressional Seat Targeted by Democratic Congressional Campaign’s $44 million Fall TV Buy
May 29, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 14 10:13 am
Per AP Thurs, May 29, 2014: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has begun reserving “almost $44 million in advertising time” with television stations in 39 fall races.
North Carolina Implications: No North Carolina Congressional race is on the list of the 39 targets. That’s because there are no opportunities for Democrats to pick up a seat in North Carolina in 2014. Following the November elections, North Carolina will have 10 Republicans and 3 Democrats in the delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Per AP: “In all, the campaign committee plans to spend money in 19 districts to defend incumbent Democrats, mostly newcomers, and in 17 districts that are in Republican hands.”
Per AP: “That’s [$44 million] the largest ever from the committee and the biggest so far this election year from a party-run campaign committee.” By booking the time early, the DCCC locks in a lower price and a “discount of up to 35 percent.”
To date, no non-partisan observer has argued that Democrats can net 18 wins in 2014, the number needed to take the US House majority from Republicans (who have 233 seats to 199 seats held by Democrats). There are three vacancies.
Here are the 39 targeted races with cities highlighted:
—$625,000 in Little Rock, Arkansas, broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 for the seat being vacated by Rep. Tim Griffin, a Republican.
—$2.2 million in Phoenix broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 2 to Oct. 6 to help first-term Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a Democrat.
—$700,000 on Tucson, Arizona, broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 14 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Ron Barber, a Democrat.
—$1.3 million on Phoenix broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat.
—$1.1 million on Sacramento, California, broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge Rep. Jeff Denham, a second-term Republican.
—$500,000 for Sacramento cable ads from Sept. 9 to Oct. 20, and $1.2 million for Sacramento broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Ami Bera, a Democrat.
—$150,000 on Bakersfield, California, Spanish-language broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 2-22, $200,000 for Bakersfield, California, broadcast ads from Sept. 9-22, $400,000 for Fresno, California, broadcast ads from Sept. 9-22, and $250,000 in Fresno Spanish-language broadcast and cable ads to challenge first-term Rep. David Valadao, a Republican.
—$950,000 on Los Angeles cable ads from Sept. 23 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Julia Brownley, a Democrat.
—$625,000 on Los Angeles cable ads from Sept. 23 to Nov. 4 for the seat being vacated by Rep. Gary Miller, a Republican.
—$1.4 million on San Diego broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 19 to Oct. 13 to help first-term Rep. Scott Peters, a Democrat.
—$1.4 million on Denver broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge Rep. Mike Coffman, a Republican.
—$90,000 on New York City cable ads from Sept. 23 to Nov. 4, and $670,000 on Hartford, Connecticut, broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 24 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Elizabeth Esty, a Connecticut Democrat.
—$400,000 on Tallahassee, Florida, broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 30 to Oct. 20, and $385,000 on Panama City, Florida, broadcast and cable ads to challenge Rep. Steve Southerland, a second-term Republican.
—$970,000 on Miami Spanish-language broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Joe Garcia, a Democrat.
—$490,000 on Augusta, Georgia, broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 2 to Oct. 6, and $670,000 on Savannah, Georgia, broadcast ads from Sept. 9 to Oct. 6 to help Rep. John Barrow, a Democrat.
—$1.3 million on Des Moines, Iowa, broadcast ads from Sept. 5 to Oct. 20 for the seat being vacated by Rep. Tom Latham, a Republican.
—$440,000 on Des Moines, Iowa, broadcast ads and $230,000 for Sioux City, Iowa, broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge Rep. Steve King, a Republican.
—$800,000 for Chicago broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21-27 to help first-term Rep. Brad Schneider, a Democrat.
—$940,000 for St. Louis broadcast ads from Sept. 12-29, and $940,000 on St. Louis broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Bill Enyart, an Illinois Democrat.
—$670,000 for Champaign, Illinois, broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 30 to Oct. 20, and $940,000 for St. Louis broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge first-term Rep. Rodney Davis, an Illinois Republican.
—$460,000 on Boston-Manchester, New Hampshire, cable ads from Oct. 7 to Nov. 4, and $965,000 on Boston-Manchester broadcast ads from Oct. 28 to Nov. 4 to help Rep. John Tierney, a Democrat.
—$450,000 on Traverse City, Michigan, broadcast ads from Sept. 2-22, and $490,000 on Traverse City broadcast ads from Oct. 14 to Nov. 4 to challenge Rep. Dan Benishek, a Republican.
—$290,000 for Lansing, Michigan, broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge Rep. Tim Walberg, a Republican, and in the race to replace retiring Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican.
—$850,000 for Detroit broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge Walberg and first-term Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, a Republican.
—$1.5 million on Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 14 to Nov. 4 to help Rep. Collin Peterson, a Democrat.
—$1.1 million on Minneapolis-St. Paul broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 7-20 to help Rep. Rick Nolan, a Democrat.
—$650,000 on Manchester, New Hampshire, broadcast ads, $1.7 million on Boston-Manchester broadcast ads and $200,000 on Boston-Manchester cable ads from Oct. 7-20 to help Democratic Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Ann McLane Kuster.
—$650,000 on Philadelphia cable ads and $640,000 on New York City cable ads from Aug. 12 to Nov. 4 for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jon Runyan, a Republican.
—$1.4 million on New York City cable ads from Sept. 9 to Oct. 20 to help Rep. Tim Bishop, a Democrat.
—$950,000 on New York City cable ads from Aug. 12 to Oct. 13 to challenge Rep. Michael Grimm, a Republican.
—$480,000 on Albany, New York, broadcast and cable ads, $200,000 on Burlington, Vermont, and Plattsburgh, New York, broadcast ads and $140,000 for Watertown broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 in the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Bill Owens, a New York Republican.
—$300,000 on Buffalo, New York, broadcast ads and $165,000 on Elmira, New York, broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 against Rep. Tom Reed, a Republican.
—$1.9 million on Philadelphia broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 in the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jim Gerlach, a Republican, and against Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, a Republican.
—$940,000 on San Antonio broadcast ads from Sept. 23 to Oct. 13 to help first-term Rep. Pete Gallego, a Democrat.
—$2.8 million on Washington, D.C., broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 in the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Frank Wolf, a Republican from Northern Virginia.
—$300,000 on Bluefield-Beckley, West Virginia, broadcast ads from Sept. 2-22, $200,000 on Bluefield-Beckley broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4, $435,000 on Charleston-Huntington, West Virginia, broadcast ads from Sept. 2-22, $290,000 on Charleston-Huntington broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to help Rep. Nick Rahall, a Democrat.
North Carolina Congressman Mike McIntyre, a Robeson County Democrat who has served the 7th Congressional district for 9 terms, was the last Democrat standing in a Republican-friendly district. He retired because he knew he could not win.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
May 14, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 13 4:13 pm North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson, one of the three Democrats on the “non-partisan” seven-member court, is likely to win her race this fall against Republican Eric Levinson, a Mecklenburg Superior Court judge, thereby earning a third term on the state’s highest court, all
[More…]
May 14, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 13 4:13 pm
North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson, one of the three Democrats on the “non-partisan” seven-member court, is likely to win her race this fall against Republican Eric Levinson, a Mecklenburg Superior Court judge, thereby earning a third term on the state’s highest court, all thanks to an ill-conceived primary TV ad accusing her of being soft on child molesters.
The Republican ad was ill-conceived for two reasons. One, voters who participate in midterm primary elections are older and wiser; wise to the wily ways of political TV ad consultants. For emphasis: They are the least likely voters to be duped. Two, the allegation that Justice Hudson is soft on child molesters is so far outside the boundaries of believability that it backfired.
Any political ad that fails the believability test, especially with a highly offensive allegation, insults the intelligence and sense of propriety of voters and is likely to backfire. And backfire it did. It was so offensive that it united and motivated the Hudson base to turn out in higher numbers. It also motivated many to vote for Hudson who otherwise would not have voted in that race.
A Republican-backed group, the Washington DC-based Republican State Leadership Committee, ran the TV attack ad saying that NC Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson, a Democrat, was “Not tough on child molesters. Not fair to victims.” Over $1 million was spent on this one Supreme Court race; $650,000 against Hudson by the Republican State Leadership Committee.
Justice Hudson’s dissent a constitutional issue in a 4-3 Supreme Court decision
The accusation that Justice Hudson was “Not tough on child molesters. Not fair to victims,” was based on a dissenting opinion she wrote in a 4-3 North Carolina Supreme Court decision in a 2010 case named State v. Bowditch. Here are the key legal points in Hudson’s dissent:
- A new law requiring satellite monitoring of convicted felons, including those who have done their time, is in effect “punitive” rather than “regulatory”
- Because it is “punitive,” it violates state and federal constitutional Ex Post Facto Clauses which prohibit adding punishment that did not exist at the time of the crime
In other words, it was a constitutional issue. And, it was a 4-3 split decision in which Hudson’s dissent was joined by Chief Justice Sarah Parker. Is Chief Justice Sarah Parker “Not tough on child molesters? Not fair to victims?” The 4-3 majority reversed a Superior Court ruling. Was the Superior Court judge in this case “Not tough on child molesters? Not fair to victims?”
This case was about applying a new law retroactively to criminals convicted before the law was enacted. The fact that the criminals in the case were child molesters does not change the unconstitutionality of retroactive application of new laws deemed “punitive.”
Republicans soft on molesters while neglecting wounded veteran moms
Using the Republican State Leadership Committee’s justification for the Hudson attack ad, Republicans lawmakers were “Not tough on child molesters. Not fair to victims,” when they passed a state budget last year that included the cost of health care for prisoners in North Carolina, some of whom are child molesters.
When Republicans cut funding for long-term unemployment insurance last November, some of those impacted were wounded female veterans with children. Would it be fair to run a TV ad against Republican lawmakers this fall attacking them for giving health care to child molesters while cutting benefits for wounded female veterans?
When the votes are tallied this November, the partisan balance of the court will be at least 4-3 Republican, and the Chief Justice’s seat will likely be filled by Republican Justice Mark Martin. (It may be a 5-2 Republican court if Republican Appeals Court Judge Robert N. Hunter defeats Democrat Appeals Court Judge Sam Ervin, IV in the race for Justice Martin’s seat.)
So, Republicans need not worry. What Republicans do need to worry about is giving their money to organizations like the Republican State Leadership Committee.
North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson, one of the three Democrats on the “non-partisan” seven-member court, is likely to win her race this fall against Republican Eric Levinson, a Mecklenburg Superior Court judge, thereby earning a third term on the state’s highest court, all thanks to an ill-conceived primary TV ad accusing her of being soft on child molesters.
With friends like the Washington DC-based Republican State Leadership Committee, North Carolina Republicans do not need enemies.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
May 7, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 12 9:13 am FORECAST: GOP-Friendly Midterm Election Year January 3: On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court,
[More…]
May 7, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 12 9:13 am
FORECAST: GOP-Friendly Midterm Election Year
January 3: On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC.”
That “possibility” is now a probability. The difference? GOP unity and enthusiasm during a midterm election year when the party in the White House always loses most of the close races.
FORECAST: Rouzer will win congressional race; will join U.S. House majority
Other key notes from the January 3, 2014 John Davis Political Report:
What is probable is that David Rouzer, a former state Senator from Johnston County who almost defeated incumbent Robeson County Democrat Congressman Mike McIntyre in 2012, will achieve his goal of representing the 7th Congressional District with a 2014 win. The other 9 Republican held districts will stay in the hands of Republicans, giving the GOP a total of 10 of the 13 North Carolina congressional districts.
Rouzer will almost certainly join a Republican majority U.S. House of Representatives, as the 233-201 GOP advantage will be too great a challenge for Democrats during a mid-term election year. The party in the White House has lost an average of 30 seats in the U.S. House over the past 21 midterm elections, and an average of 4 seats in the U.S. Senate.
PRIMARY RESULTS: David Rouzer defeated Woody White 53% to 41%.
FORECAST: Tillis will win primary outright; likely to upset Hagan in November
January 10: On January 10, 2014, in the John Davis Political Report titled, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan, I began making the case that Thom Tillis, Speaker of the NC House, would likely win the nomination outright and would be one of the six net gains for U.S. Senate Republicans needed for a majority. Several of the points for a Tillis upset over incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan:
- No North Carolina Democrat has won a second term in the U.S. Senate since 1968
- Mid-term elections do not favor the party in the White House, Democrats
- The NC Democratic Party is in shambles; the GOP has power and strong leaders
But the most important argument was under the subheading, Hagan cannot count on a divided Republican Party. Key quotes from the January 10, 2014 John Davis Political Report:
Of course, the great hope of Brannon/Harris/Flynn/Grant is to force a primary runoff by ganging up on Tillis with enough outside super PAC attack ads that keep his vote below 40%. However, the odds are greater that they will splinter the hard right conservatives and Tillis will parlay a sizable cash and organizational advantage into a primary victory on May 6, 2014.
Tillis’ legislative accomplishments are such that it will simply be too difficult for any Republican to get very far with an attempt to discredit his commitment to the conservative cause. In other words, even his on primary detractors will not likely stay divided against him for long. They want to defeat Hagan.
The Shutdown last December taught most Republicans two important lessons: one, bitter ideological divisions hurt them more than the Democrats; two, just saying no without an alternative proposal is not acceptable to most Americans as leadership.
PRIMARY RESULTS: Thom Tillis won the nomination outright with 46%, defeating Tea Party favorite Greg Brannon (27%) and social conservative favorite Mark Harris (18%).
FORECAST: GOP-led government shutdown galvanized Republicans against hard right
January 16: On January 16, 2014, in the John Davis Political Report titled, How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover, I began making the case that the October 2013 federal government shutdown was the straw that broke the camel’s back among Republicans; a pivotal event that galvanized the GOP against ideological extremism and set them on a course for a 2014 takeover of the U.S. Senate.
Key quotes from the January 16, 2014 John Davis Political Report:
The GOP’s failure to take back the White House and U.S. Senate in 2012 sparked a year of bitter feuding. Establishment conservatives and Tea Party insurgents blamed each other for destroying yet another opportunity to right the nation’s ship. But, then came October 1, 2013; the day of the government shutdown. A fiasco that damaged Republicans so badly that it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate in 2014.
Voters blamed the Republican Party. Ten times more than the Democrats.
Question 5: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups. I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.
| Public Figures/Groups Gallup October 25-28, 2013 |
Total Positive |
Total Negative |
||
| The Democratic Party |
37% |
40% |
||
| Barack Obama |
41% |
45% |
||
| Ted Cruz |
19% |
30% |
||
| Mitch McConnell |
11% |
28% |
||
| Harry Reid |
17% |
34% |
||
| The Tea Party Movement |
23% |
47% |
||
| John Boehner |
17% |
43% |
||
| The Republican Party |
22% |
53% |
||
There you have it. The Democratic Party’s net positive (37%) over negative (40%) is a negative 3%. The Republican Party’s net positive (22%) over negative (53%) is a negative 31%.
The 2013 shutdown fiasco could have been the death knell for Republican political dreams. Instead, it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP U.S. Senate takeover in 2014.
PRIMARY RESULTS: Thom Tillis won the nomination out right with 46%, defeating Tea Party favorite Greg Brannon (27%) and social conservative favorite Mark Harris (18%).
No Tea Party primary challenger defeated an incumbent member of congress on May 6.
FORECAST: An incumbent-friendly election year
January 31: On January 31, 2014, in the John Davis Political Report titled, January Surprise: National and State GOP Leaders Shifting from Stonewalling to Winning Elections, I noted that political trends from the Virginia and New Jersey elections in 2013 were reliable predictors for North Carolina in 2014.
Key quotes from the January 31, 2014 John Davis Political Report:
Here are the predictive trends from those states for North Carolina in 2014:
(1) Partisan power in the state legislature will stay as is; (2) Almost all incumbents will win their races; (3) Outside independent expenditures will favor the party in power; (4) Non-presidential year low turnout can be expected; (5) Conservative hard-liners out of favor in state-wide races.
Based on trends from 2013 and early indicators of likely advantages, like incumbency, fundraising and non-presidential election year turnout, here are a few forecasts for North Carolina:
- Because legislative and congressional districts are drawn so clearly in the favor of one party, almost all of those races will be over in May … and will not be close
- All congressional incumbents seeking another term will win their primary races and the general election by 10% or more
- David Rouzer, R-Johnston County, will win the GOP primary in the 7th Congressional District by around 10% over Woody White, R-New Hanover
- Republicans will maintain their super majorities in the NC Senate and House
PRIMARY RESULTS:
- All incumbent members of the North Carolina congressional delegation won
- The races were not close, with supposedly competitive races like the challenge to Congresswoman Renee Ellmers ending in a 59%/42% win for Ellmers.
- David Rouzer v. Woody White, another supposedly competitive race (for Mike McIntyre’s seat), was a slam dunk victory (53%/41%).
- No surprise that Rep. Alma Adams, a Guilford County Democrat, won the U.S. House 12 race outright for the seat held since 1992 by former Congressman Mel Watt. I told every audience this year that she would get all of the female voters in the district and that the four Mecklenburg County male candidates would split that county’s votes.
- Only four incumbents in the 170-member NC General Assembly lost: 2 Democrats (Sen. Clark Jenkins, Edgecombe; Rep. Annie Mobley) and two Republicans (Rep. Robert Brawley, Iredell; Rep. Roger Younts, Davidson)
- No one is surprised that the open U.S. House 6 race, held since 1985 by Guilford County Republican Howard Coble, ended with no one getting the 40% required to avoid a runoff.
Well, there you have it.
On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC.”
That “possibility” is now a probability. The difference? GOP unity and enthusiasm during a midterm election year when the party in the White House always loses most of the close races.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Big Problem for Democrats in 2014: Republicans are Focused on Winning, Not Ideological Purity April 24, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 9 10:13 am North Carolina Democrats really need social and economic Republican hardliners to divide and weaken the GOP in 2014. That’s because they, the Democrats, lack the wherewithal to win against a united Republican
[More…]
Big Problem for Democrats in 2014: Republicans are Focused on Winning, Not Ideological Purity
April 24, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 9 10:13 am
North Carolina Democrats really need social and economic Republican hardliners to divide and weaken the GOP in 2014. That’s because they, the Democrats, lack the wherewithal to win against a united Republican Party. Unfortunately, Republicans are not cooperating.
So why aren’t Republicans likely to divide and conquer each other in 2014? Because the social and economic hardliners are out of favor. The government shutdown in October 2013 was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Republicans have now turned their attention away from ideological purity to winning legislative majorities, the U.S. House, and seizing the U.S. Senate.
How conservative hardliners lost favor with the GOP
In defense of conservative economic hardliners, they did the entire nation a great service by forcing all Americans to see that the United States was fast becoming a second rate world economic power because of the national debt, deficit spending and unsustainable programs. However, they began to lose credibility with American voters when they refused to participate in what most saw as reasonable and necessary compromises on the federal budget.
For example, the average voter could never understand why all Republican candidates for president in 2012 said they would not accept a budget deal in which there were $10 in program cuts for every $1 in new revenue. And, the average voter could never grasp the constructive value of the 2013 government shutdown led by the Tea Party caucus in the U.S. Congress.
Conservative economic hardliners lost favor with most Republicans because the government shutdown got the party in big trouble. According to a poll conducted in mid-October 2013 by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News:
- The Republican Party was more unpopular that at any time since 1989
- Only 24% of Americans had a positive view of the Republican Party
- 73% said the shutdown was an “extremely” or “quite” serious problem
At the same time conservative economic hardliners were driving up the negative numbers for the Republican Party, conservative social hardliners were adding to the catastrophe by putting their agenda ahead of the economic problems facing the country during the worst recession since the Great Depression. Too many families had struggled too long for lawmakers to put issues like marriage and immigration ahead of unemployment and the long-term jobs outlook for America.
Uncompromising economic and social purists dominated a divided Republican Party in 2012 and 2013. The bitter internal division led to unmitigated political and public policy disasters:
- In 2012, Republicans lost the White House and failed to retake the U.S. Senate.
- In 2012, GOP donors lost $1.2 billion in direct investment in Presidential nominee Mitt Romney, and lost hundreds of millions more in indirect, independent expenditures in the presidential and U.S. Senate races.
- In 2013, the GOP lost the Virginia Governor’s race (plus Lt. Governor and Attorney General) because the Virginia GOP divided against each other over ideological purity.
Those losses in 2012 and 2013, along with the loss of respect of most Americans over the government shutdown, shook the Republican Party to its core. They had already lost the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections, and the population demographic trends were clearly trending Democratic.
Something had to change.
Republican National Committee Self-Assessment; a Wise Move
A major signal that the priorities of Republicans were shifting from arguing amongst themselves about economic and social policy to winning political campaigns was the Republican National Committee’s self-assessment released in March 2013 called the Growth & Opportunity Project. The NY Times called it “a blunt self-critique;” the Wall Street Journal said it was a “scathing self-analysis.” I call it, “wise.”
Sure, MSNBC’s frenzied jabberwonks scoffed at the Growth & Opportunity Project, and the GOP rank and file squirmed at the suggestion that they were contributing to their own demise. But by years end, following the anti-Republican public outrage over the federal government shutdown and after the loss of the Governor’s race in Virginia, the self-assessment began to make sense.
The Growth & Opportunity Project acknowledged GOP brand problems with young voters, women, Hispanics, Asians, African Americans and urban moderates, and made recommendations in the areas of messaging, demographics, campaign mechanics, third party groups, fundraising, campaign finance and the primary process. The report dared make statements like:
- “Democrats talk about people; Republicans talk about policy.”
- “Our standard should not be universal purity; it should be a more welcoming conservatism.”
- “America is changing demographically, and unless Republicans are able to grow our appeal the way GOP governors have done, those changes will tilt the playing field even more in the Democratic direction.”
The most politically valuable conclusion in the 100-page report is, “The party should be proud of its conservative principles, but just because someone disagrees with us on 20% of the issues, that does not mean we cannot come together on the rest of the issues where we do agree.”
That sentiment appears to be where most Republicans in North Carolina and around the nation are moving in 2014. The fact is, according to Gallup, social and economic issues are not the most important problems facing the country today. The most important problem is government. Here is the latest list from early April polling by Gallup:
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
- Dissatisfaction with government 20%
- Economy in general 16%
- Healthcare 15%
- Unemployment/Jobs 14%
Unfortunately for Republicans, they are credited with much of the “Dissatisfaction with government” because of their unwillingness to compromise on budget bills and their preoccupation with social issues that most Americans do not list as one of the “most important problems” facing the country. But most Republicans now know that, and know that their political future is dependent on getting beyond fighting each other over ideological purity rather than fighting Democrats for the heart and soul of the country.
North Carolina Democrats were really counting on social and economic Republican hardliners to divide and weaken the GOP this year. That’s because they lack the wherewithal to win against a united Republican Party. Unfortunately for Democrats, Republicans are not cooperating in 2014.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Forecasting 2014: Is the New GOP Honeybadger another Orca, or is it a Democratic Narwhal? April 2, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 8 12:13 pm If I had to choose only one bit of information for forecasting partisan fortunes in 2014, like the winner in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, it would be the
[More…]
Forecasting 2014: Is the New GOP Honeybadger another Orca, or is it a Democratic Narwhal?
April 2, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 8 12:13 pm
If I had to choose only one bit of information for forecasting partisan fortunes in 2014, like the winner in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, it would be the answer to the question: Is the new GOP Honeybadger just another Republican Orca, or is it a Democratic Narwhal?
Narwhal? Orca? Honeybadger?
Project Narwhal is Democratic President Obama’s 2012 $100 million “get out the vote” digital data-mining, voter contact and turnout tracking operation. Project Narwhal drove up the turnout of the most unlikely voters in 2012, like African Americans in Ohio and young people everywhere, giving Obama another four years in the White House.
Orca? Orca is Republican Mitt Romney’s 2012 “get out the vote” app that was supposed to neutralize Obama’s Project Narwhal. Instead, Orca crashed. It turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. Never beta tested! In Boston, on Election Day, a Romney campaign aide told the Washington Times, “Somebody said Orca is lying on the beach with a harpoon in it.”
Conversely, read Time’s story, Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win, and you will discover that Jim Messina, Obama’s Campaign Manager, invested $100 million in technology and analytics software dubbed Project Narwhal. Messina hired a team of techies five times the size of the 2008 operations group. They shattered turnout records.
These data-mining geeks worked in secret in a remote corner of the HQ in Chicago for 18 months, “creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.”
Project Narwhal helped to:
- Predict the types of people who would be persuaded by specific messages
- Rank their target lists for unique actions in order of persuadability (register; donate)
- Predict the types of people who would volunteer, and for what type of work
- Raise a record $1 billion war chest
- Register 3 million new voters and turn out voters in swing states in record numbers
Democrats’ $60 Million Bannock Street Project Coming to NC
On March 27, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced plans to hold their U.S. Senate majority by investing $60 million in a turnout operation named the Bannock Street Project, the “largest and most data-driven ground game ever.” On April 1, 2014, the Washington Post reported that North Carolina’s Sen. Kay Hagan is one of the Senate Democrats targeted for support by the Bannock Street Project. The Bannock Street Project is targeting 374,000 African-Americans and 500,000 women in North Carolina who voted in 2012 but not 2010.
An effective ground game is especially advantageous in a nonpresidential year like 2014.
Turnout in the last two non-presidential year primaries in North Carolina was 12% (2006) and 14% (2010). That suggests that 2014 Primary Election turnout will be about 13%. For emphasis: 87% will not vote. In the General Elections in 2006 and 2010, turnout was 37% and 44% respectively. That suggests that turnout in this fall’s general election will be about 40%.
Last year, 2013, New Jersey saw a record-low turnout of just 39.6% in the General Election. Even in Virginia last year, with hotly contested campaigns for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, only 42.7% of the Commonwealth’s voters bothered to vote.
Nationally, Republicans are well aware of the advantage that Democrats have with tech savvy communications and turnout tools. In February, Reince Priebus, RNC Chairman, announced the formation of Para Bellum Labs, an in-house technology incubator that combines data-analytics and digital marketing.
However, the most significant development by Republicans in the attempt to reestablish their once-held turnout advantage is named Honeybadger. Honeybadger, developed by the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, was credited as the winning difference in the Florida Special Election won in March by Republican David Jolly.
With Honeybadger, the Jolly camp was able to track voters they had to target and discover what would motivate them to vote. “We had a lot of high-probability folks left, so if we were able to focus our message properly, we could create a surge,” said John Rogers, NRCC Deputy Political Director. “Once we switched to that script across the board, that’s when the surge started,” he said.
Narwhal? Orca? Honeybadger?
A Narwhal is an arctic whale that dives for food deeper than other marine mammals (2,600 feet, 15 times per day, with many dives reaching 4,900 feet). That’s what the Obama camp did with Project Narwhal. They dove deeper into the data than ever before and broke turnout records. That’s what the Democrats are planning with the Bannock Street Project in North Carolina.
An Orca is supposed to be a killer whale. But the Romney campaign geek squad turned the Orca into a playful performer at Sea World that jumps when it’s told and eats a diet prescribed by nutritionists and hand fed by trainers.
However, Republicans are now back on the right track with new tech-savvy turnout operations like Honeybadger. A honey badger is a savage carnivorous predator that eats porcupines and poisonous snakes, steals food from lions and raids beehives.
Thom Tillis will defeat U.S. Senator Kay Hagan and the GOP will win back the U.S. Senate if the GOP turnout operation is more like the Honeybadger than the Orca. Otherwise, Republicans are going to be whistling into the sunset on the Democrats’ Bannock Street.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
North Carolina’s May Madness Single-Elimination Political Primary Championship Begins April 24 March 26, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 7 12:13 pm March Madness NCAA basketball games and political campaigns in North Carolina are much alike. First, they are single elimination contests. Lose once and you are out. Second, the top seeds almost always win the
[More…]
North Carolina’s May Madness Single-Elimination Political Primary Championship Begins April 24
March 26, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 7 12:13 pm
March Madness NCAA basketball games and political campaigns in North Carolina are much alike. First, they are single elimination contests. Lose once and you are out. Second, the top seeds almost always win the final game. Sure, there are always a few Cinderella stories like last week’s “#14 Mercer Upsets #3 Duke,” or, “#6 NC State wins 1983 National Championship,” but the odds still favor the top seeds. Third, the madness. The madness of political attack TV ads.
North Carolina’s May Madness single elimination political primary championship begins on April 24, 2014, the opening day for One-Stop voting. It ends on May 6, 2014, Primary Election Day. And, as with the NCAA Division I tournament, everyone thinks they’re going to win.
There are 170 N.C. General Assembly seats up for grabs in 2014, 13 U.S. Congressional seats, 1 U.S. Senate seat, 4 N.C. Supreme Court seats and 3 seats on the N.C. Court of Appeals.
So, for those of you who are filling out your May Madness political primary championship bracket, and thinking about the November playoff races, here are a few pointers.
New Jersey and Virginia Signal Good Year for Incumbents
Virginia and New Jersey were the only two states in 2013 with gubernatorial and legislative elections. The political trends in those two states are almost always reliable predictors for North Carolina a year later. Here are the predictive trends from those states for North Carolina in 2014:
(1) Partisan power in the state legislature will stay as is; (2) Almost all incumbents will win their races; (3) Outside independent expenditures will favor the party in power; (4) Non-presidential year low turnout can be expected; (5) Conservative hard-liners out of favor in state-wide races.
As to legislative races, here are the key trends from New Jersey:
- In New Jersey, no Senate seats changed hands; only 1 Assembly member lost
- The party in power maintained control (24-16 Democratic Senate; 48-32 Democratic Assembly) despite Republican Gov. Christie’s 61.2% landslide victory
- A record-high $72 million was spent on legislative races in 2013, with about $20 million of that spent by outside independent expenditure groups
As to legislative races, here are the key trends from Virginia:
- In the 100-member Virginia House of Delegates, Republicans went from a 67-33 majority to a 68-32 majority (No Senate races in 2013; split 20-20 w/Dem Lt. Gov)
- Only two legislative incumbents lost in Virginia in 2013
- Only 14 of the 100 House of Delegates seats were won with a spread of less than 10%; only 8 under 4%. Arguably, only 8 of 100 races were competitive
Congressional and Legislative Races Will Not be Closes
Based on trends from 2013 and early indicators of likely advantages, like incumbency, fundraising and non-presidential election year turnout, here are a few big-picture forecasts for North Carolina:
- Because legislative and congressional districts are drawn so clearly in the favor of one party, almost all of those races will be over in May … and will not be close
- All congressional incumbents seeking another term will win their primary races and the general election by 10% or more, including Renee Ellmers, R-Harnett, 2nd Congressional District and Walter Jones, R-Pitt, 3rd Congressional District
- David Rouzer, R-Johnston County, will win the GOP primary in the 7th Congressional District by around 10% over Woody White, R-New Hanover
- Republicans will maintain their super majorities in the NC Senate and House
Tillis Likely GOP U.S. Senate Nominee with No Runoff
As to statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia, the overarching trend was the demand for leaders who placed a higher premium on getting things done over those who thought sticking to their beliefs was more important even if nothing gets done. In North Carolina’s U.S. Senate GOP primary race, that trend favors the election of Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, outright on May 6.
During his four years as NC House Speaker, Tillis lead dozens of successful legislative battles for conservative solutions to problems. Republicans will honor his accomplishments on May 6.
Two opponents seen early on as a threat, Greg Brannon, R-Wake, and Mark Harris, R-Mecklenburg, have fizzled out. Both are having trouble raising money, and Brannon has tripped himself up with legal problems. Tillis will win the primary handily, and is favored to win this fall.
Let the May Madness begin!
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John N. Davis, Editor