Profile of Likely Democratic and Likely Republican Voters Clarified in Pew Research Study; Turnout Remains Uncertain A new Pew Research Center study of the partisan makeup of U.S. voters, released September 13, 2016, shows that both Democrats and Republicans are becoming less white, less religious and better educated. However, Democrats in America are becoming less
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Profile of Likely Democratic and Likely Republican Voters Clarified in Pew Research Study; Turnout Remains Uncertain
A new Pew Research Center study of the partisan makeup of U.S. voters, released September 13, 2016, shows that both Democrats and Republicans are becoming less white, less religious and better educated. However, Democrats in America are becoming less white, less religious and better educated at a faster rate than the national average, while Republicans are becoming less white, less religious and better educated at a slower rate than the national average.
- Democrats have gone from 76% non-Hispanic white voters to 57% since 1992
- Republicans have gone from 93% non-Hispanic whites to 86% since 1992
Pews national study, based on 8,000 interviews, reveals that 48% of registered voters identify as Democrats or lean towards the Democratic Party, while 44% identify as Republican or lean Republican. The profile of partisan voters is now clear. Who will turn out to vote is uncertain.
Democrats: Women, Minorities, Young, Urban, Single
The coalition of 48% of American voters who consider themselves Democrats or lean towards the Democratic Party is comprised primarily of women, minorities and under-50 young people. Most college graduates and post grads are Democrats. So are those who make less than $30,000 annually, along with those who are unmarried and those who live in urban areas.
- Women favor Democrats by 54% to 38%
- Blacks favor Democrats by 87% to 7%
- Hispanics favor Democrats by 63% to 27%
- Asians favor Democrats by 66% to 27%
- Millennials (18 to 35-year-olds) favor Democrats by 57% to 36%
- Gen Xers (36 to 51-year-olds) favor Democrats by 48% to 42%
- College grads favor Democrats by 53% to 41%
- Some College or less is split evenly at 46% Democratic; 46% Republican
- Family income under $30,000 favor Democrats by 60% to 32%
- Unmarried favor Democrats by 56% to 36%
- Urban favor Democrats by 60% to 33%
- % Favor Democrats: Black Protestants (88%); Hispanic Catholics (69%); Jews (74%)
Republicans: Men, White, Older, Suburban/Rural, Married
The 44% of Americans who consider themselves Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party is comprised primarily of men, white voters, and older generations of voters. Upper income households and married voters are more likely to be Republican, as are suburban and rural voters, along with non-Hispanic Protestants, Catholics and Mormons.
- Men favor Republicans by 51% to 41%
- White, non-Hispanic voters favor Republicans 54% to 39%
- Baby Boomers favor Republicans 49% to 45%
- Silent/Greatest Generation voters favor Republicans 53% to 40%
- Some College or less splits 46% ea; High Sch or less favor Republicans 59% to 33%
- Family Income over $75,000 favor Republicans 49% to 45%
- Family Income $30,000-$74,999 favor Republicans 48% to 45%
- Married voters favor Republicans 51% to 44%
- Suburban voters favor Republicans 48% to 44%
- Rural voters favor Republicans 55% to 37%
- White, non-Hispanic Evangelical Protestants favor Republicans (76% to 20%), as do Mainline Protestants (55% to 37%) and Catholics (58% to 37%)
- Mormons favor Republicans 69% to 24%
The Pew study shows a rapid aging of the Republican Party in the United States compared to 1992, when 61% were under the age of 50 and 38% over 50. Today, only 41% of Republicans are under 50, with 58% of the GOP base now over 50.
There’s been a major shift in party loyalty among 65-and-older Americans, with Republicans now enjoying a 51% to 42% lead. That’s a 9-point improvement over 2008. Conversely, the under-30 voters continue to support the Democratic Party (59%) as they did in 2008 (60%).
Who is More Likely to Vote?
In 2008 and 2012, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama won the presidential race with a sophisticated turnout operation fueled by enthusiastic African-American and young white volunteers. However, Obama was unable to rekindle that enthusiasm for Democrats in 2010 and 2014, leading to a takeover of most state governments and the U.S. Congress by the GOP.
On Monday, September 12, 2016, Dr. Rebecca Tippett, Director of Carolina Demography at UNC-Chapel Hill’s Carolina Population Center, released a report on “active, registered” North Carolina voters by generations. Tippett’s finding: “Only 67% of voting-eligible Millennials and 73% of Gen Xers are “active, registered” voters, compared to 81% of Boomers and 82% of Silent/Greatest voting-eligibles.”
Considerable ink and airtime has been given by political analysts and reporters to the topic of Hillary Clinton’s struggle to generate enthusiasm among African Americans and young voters. If Democratic turnout is more like 2004 than 2008 or 2012, Clinton’s potential plummets.
In every election year since 2008 that Obama was not on the top of the ballot, Democrats have fared poorly, even with sophisticated turnout operations, because their base lacked enthusiasm and did not turn out. Thanks to Pew Research, we now have a clear profile of voters more likely to vote Democratic and Republican. Turnout remains uncertain
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Need a Political Speaker? If you would like a sensible summary of the status of federal and state elections, go here to check my availability. All of my speeches are tailored for each audience, focusing only on the likely winners and implications of the elections you choose.
JDPR TrendLines is an executive summary feature of the John Davis Political Report. The objective is to provide readers timely assessments of the political implications of the latest opinion polls and breaking news.
North Carolina’s Two Million Unaffiliated Voters Will Decide the Winners in All 18 Statewide Races in 2016 August 24, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 10 3:13 pm Civitas Annual Unaffiliated Poll Results On August 18, 2016, I was honored to serve as guest commentator for the Civitas luncheon featuring their annual North Carolina
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North Carolina’s Two Million Unaffiliated Voters Will Decide the Winners in All 18 Statewide Races in 2016
August 24, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 10 3:13 pm
Civitas Annual Unaffiliated Poll Results
On August 18, 2016, I was honored to serve as guest commentator for the Civitas luncheon featuring their annual North Carolina Unaffiliated Voters Poll. The Civitas Unaffiliated Voters Poll is critical insider political information in light of the fact that, per the State Board of Elections, 1,951,075 voters in North Carolina are registered Unaffiliated. Those near-two-million voters will decide the winners in all 18 statewide races in North Carolina this fall.
Unaffiliated voters are now 29% of all registered voters in the state, with Democrats at 40% (2,665,330) and Republicans at 30% (2,023,603). There are 28,781 Libertarians.
According to the Civitas survey, 1-in-4 Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina switched from the Republican Party; an almost equal number (22%) switched from the Democratic Party.
But, the true balance of the partisan market share in our state is not in how voters are registered, it is in how they are likely to vote. If you adjust the voter registration totals by the political leanings of Unaffiliated voters, the state becomes perfectly balanced, as seen in Gallup’s State of the States study, at 41% Democratic and 41% Republican.
Time was, Republicans gained a political advantage in North Carolina by adding conservative Democrats. Now, only about 15% of Democrats are predictably Republican. Today, it is the Republican-leaning Unaffiliated voters who give GOP statewide candidates even odds.
Bottom line: North Carolina’s Unaffiliated voters will decide the winners of all 18 statewide races on November 8, 2016. The races are: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, N.C. Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Auditor, Commissioner of Agriculture, Commissioner of Insurance, Commissioner of Labor, Secretary of State, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Treasurer, Supreme Court Justice (Bob Edmunds’ seat), and 5 seats on the N.C. Court of Appeals.
GOP Social Issues Help Dems with Urban, Young & Unaffiliated Voters
In general, North Carolina Unaffiliated voters are more Conservative (49%) than Moderate (33%) or Liberal (15%). That’s because on fiscal issues, like taxes and government spending, Unaffiliated voters are more Conservative (52%) than either Moderate (34%) or Liberal (10%).
However, on social issues, like abortion and marriage, Unaffiliated voters are twice as Liberal (31%). Only 40% consider themselves Conservative on social issues, with 26% saying they are Moderate. That’s 57% who are either Moderate (26%) or Liberal (31%).
If North Carolina Republican leaders aren’t careful, social issues will be their downfall.
Almost all of the growth in new voters in North Carolina is among 3 groups who are the least likely to be conservative on social issues: Urban voters (Wake and Mecklenburg counties have as many voters as the lowest 61 counties), Younger voters (Census Bureau says Millennials now outnumber Baby Boomers in the U.S. 75.4 million to 74.9 million), and Unaffiliated voters (29% of all North Carolina voters; 58% of all new registrations since January 2, 2016).
Most of the big cities in North Carolina, and around the nation for that matter, are run by Democrats. Urban voters prefer Democrats over Republicans because the quality of life in cities is dependent on government investment. City dwellers like museums, centers for the performing arts, jogging paths, sports arenas, great schools, parks and public transportation.
As to Millennials, every political study I have seen this year on voters born since 1980 shows that they are becoming one of the most liberal generations in American history, especially on social issues. The 50th anniversary study of American freshman by the Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA concludes that “the highest percent of freshmen since 1973 say they are left of center.” Millennials are far more inclined to support Democrats over Republicans.
The USA Today – Rock the Vote survey of Millennial voters, conducted August 5-10, 2016, shows that in a four-way race, Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump by 50% to 18% among the nation’s youngest voters, with 11% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4% backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Now, because of social issues, you can add Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina to Urban voters and Millennials as those most persuadable to vote Democratic over Republicans.
The best hope in 2016 for Democrats to regain their political standing in North Carolina’s executive and judicial branches of government is to tie Republicans to conservative social issues among urban voters, Millennial’s and voters registered Unaffiliated.
Economy/Jobs and Improving Public Education Key to GOP Success
The best hope in 2016 for Republicans to maintain their political advantage in North Carolina’s executive and judicial offices is to claim ownership of the two categories of most importance to Unaffiliated voters, Economy/Jobs and Improving Public Education.
According to the new Civitas poll, an overwhelming 54% of Unaffiliated voters said that the highest priority of state government should be Economy/Jobs (29%) and Improving Public Education (25%). No other issue is even remotely close.
Fortunately for Republicans running in executive and legislative races, the list of accomplishments under the category headings of Economy/Jobs and Improving Public Education are the envy of most state government leaders throughout the United States. Here are a few:
- $2 billion infrastructure bond approved by voters
- Unemployment down to 4.7%
- $4.4 billion in tax relief
- Paid off $2.5 billion unemployment insurance debt
- $1.5 billion rainy day fund
- Maintained AAA bond rating
- Average teacher pay over $50,000
- Education budgets largest in history
- High school graduation rates at all-time high
- Winner of Site Selection’s 2016 Prosperity Cup (#1 Business Competitiveness)
Perhaps that list of economic and educational accomplishments is why Unaffiliated voters in the August 2016 Civitas survey have a more favorable (46%) than unfavorable (40%) impression of Republican Governor Pat McCrory.
However, since I have learned the hard way to never rely on the results of a single poll, I decided to check the most recent Public Policy Polling statewide survey (Aug. 5-7; Likely voters) to see what Independent voters thought about McCrory (PPP is a Democratic polling firm).
- McCrory Job Approval: 47% of Independent voters “Approve;” 42% Disapprove
- 42% of Independent voters said they support Republican Pat McCrory for Governor; only 27% said that they support Democrat Roy Cooper for Governor
- Republican U.S. Senator Richard Burr has a 42% to 23% advantage among Independent voters over Democrat Deborah Ross
Once again, it is quite significant that the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling confirms the finding in the Civitas poll that Republican Governor Pat McCrory and Republican U.S. Senator Richard Burr are favored by Unaffiliated/Independent voters over Democrat Roy Cooper and Democrat Deborah Ross respectively by wide margins well outside of the margin of error.
In order for Republicans to win most of the 18 statewide races on the ballot this fall in North Carolina, it is imperative that they build on the advantages among Unaffiliated voters as shown in the Civitas statewide poll. That can be achieved by emphasizing economic and educational accomplishments under Republican leadership during the last four years.
In order for Democrats to win most of the statewide races this fall, they must persuade Unaffiliated/Independent voters that Republicans had little to do with the state’s economic recovery; that they are weakening the states 100-year commitment to public education.
The federal and state executive and judicial branches are at stake this November. The majorities on the North Carolina Supreme Court and Court of Appeals will be either a Republican or Democratic. Vacancies on the U.S. Supreme Court will be filled by liberals or conservatives.
In the final analysis, North Carolina’s nearly-two-million Unaffiliated voters will decide the winners of all 18 statewide races in this fall’s General Election.
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John Davis
Trump Won the “Most Watched” Convention Address Battle, but Clinton Won the “More Likely to Vote For” War Donald Trump’s bragging rights from having a larger TV audience for his acceptance speech than Hillary Clinton had for hers was short lived. Now, polling numbers evaluating voter opinion of the Republican and Democratic national conventions are
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Trump Won the “Most Watched” Convention Address Battle, but Clinton Won the “More Likely to Vote For” War
Donald Trump’s bragging rights from having a larger TV audience for his acceptance speech than Hillary Clinton had for hers was short lived. Now, polling numbers evaluating voter opinion of the Republican and Democratic national conventions are beginning to pour in, with early indicators pointing to relatively good news for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats and mixed reviews for Donald Trump and the Republicans.
The first poll with breaking news of public opinion of the back-to-back party conventions and their nominees was North Carolina’s own Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democrat-leaning firm highly respected on the national stage for reliability. On Sunday, July 30, PPP reported:
- View of the Democratic Party: “Favorable” 45%; “Unfavorable” 48%
- View of Hillary Clinton: “Favorable” 45%; “Unfavorable” 51%
- View of the Republican Party: “Favorable” 38%; “Unfavorable” 55%
- View of Donald Trump: “Favorable” 36%; “Unfavorable” 58%
The results of the hypothetical question, “If the election were held today,” show Clinton 46%; Trump 41%; Gary Johnson 6%; Jill Stein 2%.
As to the remaining “Undecided” voters, totaling about 5%, they do not like Clinton (4% “Favorable;” 83% “Unfavorable), nor do they like Trump (2% “Favorable;” 89% “Unfavorable”).
The allegation that Trump is in cahoots with Vladimir Putin/Russia in getting WikiLeaks to release embarrassing Democratic Party emails is likely having a negative effect on voter opinion, as only 7% of Americans view Putin favorably, to 69% who see him negatively.
Trump Scores Historic First Negative “Likely to Vote For”
On Monday morning, August 1, Gallup reported that more Americans have a “More Favorable” view of the Democratic Party (44%) after the convention than of the Republican Party (35%).
- Democratic Party: 44% “More Favorable;” 42% “Less Favorable”
- Clinton’s speech rated “Excellent/Good” by 44%; “Poor/Terrible” by 20%
- Republican Party: 35% “More Favorable;” 52% “Less Favorable”
- Trump’s speech rated “Excellent/Good” by 35%; “Poor/Terrible” by 36%
American adults participating in the survey said that they are “More Likely” (45%) than “Less Likely” (41%) to vote for Hillary Clinton after the conventions. The survey showed that Americans are “Less Likely” (51%) rather than “More Likely” (36%) to vote for Donald Trump.
Gallup has measured the national conventions for over three decades. The 2016 Republican convention is the first since 1984 that the percentage of Americans have said they are “less likely” rather than “more likely” to vote for a party’s presidential nominee as a result of what they saw or heard about the convention.
Today, August 1, 2016, the Real Clear Politics national average of all polls measuring the head-to-head race for the presidency shows Clinton with 44.9%; Trump with 42.7%. The latest North Carolina presidential average is very close to the national numbers, with Clinton at 44% and Trump at 42%.
IMPLICATIONS: Democrats did a far better job launching their nominee for president at the convention in Philadelphia than the GOP did at their convention in Cleveland. However, due to the hyper-volatility of the 2016 presidential election and the game-changing vulnerabilities of both nominees, the likely winner will be unpredictable until Election Day, November 8, 2016.
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John N. Davis
Need a Political Speaker? If you would like a sensible summary of the status of federal and state elections, go here to check my availability. All of my speeches are tailored for each audience, focusing only on the likely winners and implications of the elections you choose.
JDPR TrendLines is an executive summary feature of the John Davis Political Report. The objective is to provide readers timely assessments of the political implications of the latest opinion polls and breaking news.
New FEC Reports Show U.S. Sen. Richard Burr with $5 Million Cash Advantage; Ross Well Behind Former Sen. Kay Hagan This morning’s release of U.S. Sen. Richard Burr’s midyear campaign-finance report reveals a $5 million Cash on Hand advantage over Democratic rival Deborah Ross. The midyear campaign-finance report filed by Deborah Ross (D-Wake), shows a
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New FEC Reports Show U.S. Sen. Richard Burr with $5 Million Cash Advantage; Ross Well Behind Former Sen. Kay Hagan
This morning’s release of U.S. Sen. Richard Burr’s midyear campaign-finance report reveals a $5 million Cash on Hand advantage over Democratic rival Deborah Ross.
The midyear campaign-finance report filed by Deborah Ross (D-Wake), shows a total of $3,977,866 raised, with $1,909,177 Cash on Hand. Burr, a Forsyth County Republican, reported $8,309,160 raised and $6,953,253 Cash on Hand.
To put Ross’ fundraising totals in perspective, former US Senator Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) had four times the total Cash on Hand ($8,729,330) at the midyear mark in 2014. But to be fair, that’s simply a reflection of the power of incumbency, the bane of all challengers.
In 2014, when all was said and done, former US Senator Kay Hagan had raised $22,520,800, and still lost to Thom Tillis (R-Mecklenburg), who raised $11,000,378.
In addition to Hagan’s $22.5 million raised, she benefited from another $7.3 million spent on positive ads on her behalf by outside groups, and another $31.6 million spent by outside groups attacking Republican challenger Thom Tillis.
Will outside groups spend tens of millions of dollars on Ross’ behalf in 2016?
Sen. Richard Burr defeated Secretary of State Elaine Marshall in 2010 by 54.8% to 43%. That margin of victory is a significant indicator of his strength as a campaigner. It will take tens of millions of dollars on Ross’ behalf to defeat an incumbent as influential and effective as Burr.
If Kay Hagan, an incumbent U.S. Senator with a 2-to-1 fundraising advantage and $40 million in outside support in 2014, can’t fend off a Republican challenger, then maybe North Carolina is not the fertile ground for a 2016 U.S. Senate seat pickup that Democrats had hoped.
IMPLICATIONS: The disappointment among Democrats in 2014 over the loss of the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, the most expensive in the United States with $113.5 million total dollars spent, is likely chilling the fundraising efforts of Democrat Deborah Ross in 2016.
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John N. Davis
Need a Political Speaker? If you would like a sensible summary of the status of federal and state elections, go here to check my availability. All of my speeches are tailored for each audience, focusing only on the likely winners and implications of the elections you choose.
JDPR TrendLines is an executive summary feature of the John Davis Political Report. The objective is to provide readers timely assessments of the political implications of the latest opinion polls and breaking news.
U.S. Sen. Richard Burr Gets Big Break as Democratic Opponent Deborah Ross Fails to Make Top 10 Challengers U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, R-NC, got a big break on June 30, 2016, when Roll Call’s Senate Challenger Rankings did not include his Democratic opponent, Deborah Ross, in the Top 10 challengers running in U.S. Senate
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U.S. Sen. Richard Burr Gets Big Break as Democratic Opponent Deborah Ross Fails to Make Top 10 Challengers
U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, R-NC, got a big break on June 30, 2016, when Roll Call’s Senate Challenger Rankings did not include his Democratic opponent, Deborah Ross, in the Top 10 challengers running in U.S. Senate races. Ross’ weak Roll Call evaluation, based on fundraising, election history, the quality of the campaigns and the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, means she will struggle to raise money the remainder of the campaign.
Roll Call noted that Ross was “not the Democrats’ first choice,” and that her “tenure as head of the state American Civil Liberties Union is already coming back to haunt her.” Ross’ ACLU record was attacked by fellow Democrats in the primary, who argued that her opposition to a sex-offender registry and the Ten Commandments in public schools made her “unelectable.”
As of July 11, 2016, Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report, lists North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr in his “Leans Republican” column. UVA’s Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball also has Sen. Richard Burr in the “Leans Republican” column, as does the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report.
The Real Clear Politics average of all polling data in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race shows Burr with 42.3% over Ross’ 38.7%. The most recent poll in this race, conducted July 5-11 by NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist, shows Burr up 7 points over Ross, 48% to 41%.
First Quarter reports filed with the FEC show Burr’s fundraising at $7.2 million; Ross at $1.9 million. New reports, due any day, will tell whether Burr is maintaining a funding advantage.
Implications: You can’t beat a powerful incumbent without money, and you can’t raise money if the consensus is you are not a strong challenger. Although Deborah Ross is not seen as a strong challenger, Democrats may well take back the Senate in 2016.
Democratic Senate Majority Likely If Clinton Wins Presidency
Currently, Republicans enjoy a 54-seat majority in the United States Senate. However, Democrats only need to net five U.S. Senate pick-ups to regain the majority; four if they win the White House, as the Vice President breaks tie votes. Their opportunities are abundant.
- Democrats are defending only 10 seats; Republicans are defending 24 seats
- No Democrat incumbent is running in a state carried by Mitt Romney in 2012
- 7 GOP seats are in states Obama won in 2012 (FL, IL, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI)
The Cook Political Report lists those same seven U.S. Senate races (FL, IL, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI) as “Toss Up”, with only one Democratic-held senate seat on the list, Nevada, “Open” due to the retirement of Democratic senate leader Harry Reed.
Implications: If Democrats win the White House, they will likely win the U.S. Senate majority. If Republicans win the White House, they will likely hold the U.S. Senate majority.
U.S. Supreme Court: Either 6-3 Liberal or 7-2 Conservative
With the same party likely in power in the White House and the U.S. Senate after the 2016 elections, the U.S. Supreme Court will become decidedly liberal under Democrats or very conservative under a Republican administration (President appoints; Senate confirms).
The average age of retirement for Supreme Court justices is 79 years-old. In 2017, three justices will become 79 years-old or older: liberals Breyer (79) and Ginsburg (84), along with Kennedy (81), a frequent swing vote.
If all three Supreme Court justices 79 years-old or older were replaced by a Democratic president and U.S. Senate, and a liberal was appointed to the seat once held by Justice Scalia, who died February 13, 2016, the court would shift left with a 6-3 liberal majority.
If Republicans win the White House, they will hold the U.S. Senate majority and stack the federal judiciary with conservatives. If Breyer, Ginsburg and Kennedy retire during a Republican administration and a Republican-majority U.S. Senate, the U.S. Supreme Court would become a 7-2 conservative court, if you include a conservative replacement to Justice Scalia’s seat.
Implications: If Democrats stack the U.S. Supreme court with liberals, they will win litigated laws like abortion, ObamaCare, affirmative action, guns, election laws, executive power, immigration, religion, LGBT rights, the environment and regulatory authority. If Republicans stack the court with conservatives, they will prevail on all of those issues … to name a few.
Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, a Forsyth County two-term Republican who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, is on track to win a third term.
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John N. Davis
Need a Political Speaker? If you would like a sensible summary of the status of federal and state elections, go here to check my availability. All of my speeches are tailored for each audience, focusing only on the likely winners and implications of the elections you choose.
JDPR TrendLines is an executive summary feature of the John Davis Political Report. The objective is to provide readers timely assessments of the political implications of the latest opinion polls and breaking news.
Gov. Pat McCrory Preaches Prosperity while Defending HB2 in America’s 9th Most Religious State May 27, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 6 3:13 pm Preaching Prosperity On May 2, 2016, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory’s campaign for reelection received a major boost from Site Selection Magazine when the state was selected as the winner
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Gov. Pat McCrory Preaches Prosperity while Defending HB2 in America’s 9th Most Religious State
May 27, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 6 3:13 pm
Preaching Prosperity
On May 2, 2016, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory’s campaign for reelection received a major boost from Site Selection Magazine when the state was selected as the winner of the coveted Prosperity Cup, honoring the #1 place in America for business competitiveness.
Now, let me stop right here and ask my Democrat friends if being the #1 place in America for doing business would be a big deal if a Democrat were governor?
Arguably, there is no award more valuable politically to the reelection of an incumbent governor in the wake of the worst recession since the Great Depression than the Prosperity Cup.
The accolades heaped on North Carolina since McCrory was inaugurated January 5, 2013 are remarkable and abundant.
The state’s economic output has grown by 13.4 percent on McCrory’s watch, the fastest of any state. For emphasis: no state has increased its GDP faster than North Carolina, a claim rated as “True” by POLITIFACT North Carolina.
Like it or not, North Carolina has become an oasis of politically valuable government reform and dynamic economic growth. An oasis? You doubt that? Think about Washington DC. Read on.
So, we’re the #1 place in America for business, we lead the nation in economic growth, and, voters are so confident that the state is in good hands that they approved Connect NC, a $2 billion infrastructure bond in March by a whopping 2-to-1 landslide victory margin (66%-to-34%).
Voters in 76 of 100 counties will see the Connect NC bond money being spent locally. Investments in the UNC System, the NC Community College System, state parks, National Guard, water/sewer projects, the state zoo and agriculture research.
The 2016 race for governor is a referendum on Gov. McCrory’s first term. Under McCrory’s leadership, the unemployment rate has steadily improved in all 100 counties. Other advances:
- $4.4 billion in tax relief (personal and corporate)
- Paid off $2.5 billion unemployment insurance debt to the feds
- $1 billion rainy day fund has been set aside (largest in history)
- Maintained AAA bond rating (only 10 states have AAA rating)
- Education budgets largest in history
- Teacher salaries have increased more than any other state
- Exports grew at twice the national average
- Ranked as one of the most innovative states in the nation
- High School graduation rates at an all-time high
- $1.6 billion in highway construction projects on the drawing boards
- Major tort, regulatory and energy reforms (permitting “fracking”)
Following the current session of the General Assembly, look for Governor McCrory to double-down on his list of accomplishments, adding politically critical claims like “the fastest growing teacher salaries in the nation.”
All Roy Cooper can do is promise to do a better job than Pat McCrory. Better than the Prosperity Cup? Better than the #1 GDP in America? Better than a $2 billion infrastructure bond? Better than the fastest growing teacher salaries in the nation?
Growing prosperity in North Carolina is the single most important reason why it is going to be very difficult for Roy Cooper to make the argument that there is a compelling reason to change the state’s chief executive. But there is another reason: HB2.
Defending HB2 in the 9th Most Religious State
North Carolina was targeted by the national LGBT-focused Human Rights Campaign to initiate the non-discrimination ordinance passed by the Charlotte City Council that prompted HB2. Evidence that North Carolina is an ideal target for LGBT political action is abundant.
Gallup’s State of the States analysis, ranking states by political ideology and partisan persuasions, reveals that despite GOP dominance of state government, North Carolina is only the 30th most Republican-friendly state in the country. We are the 20th most Democratic-friendly state.
Republicans/Lean Republican
- Wyoming #1 Republican state in the U.S. at 59.6%; 27.8% favor Democrats
- Top 10 Republican-friendly states are Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alabama, Alaska, Oklahoma, Kansas, South Carolina
- North Carolina is #30 most Republican at 41.3%; 41.5% favor Democrats
- National average is 40.1% Republican; 43% Democratic
Democrat/Lean Democrat
- Vermont is #1 Democrat state in the U.S. at 51.9%; 30.2% Republicans
- Top 10 Democrat-friendly states are Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Maryland, Rhode Island, California, New Mexico, Connecticut, Illinois
- North Carolina is #20 most Democratic-friendly state
Democrats have every reason to be encouraged that their dream of regaining the upper hand in state politics in North Carolina will be realized.
North Carolina is quickly becoming an urban dominant state. Urban voters are more progressive and tolerant than most; they favor Democrats over Republicans. They are younger.
As Baby Boomers decline in number, Millennial voters are emerging as the fastest growing voting bloc. Politically, Millennial’s are more liberal than any generation in American history.
North Carolina is becoming a more diverse state. Women outnumber men by 54% to 46% in the total number of registered voters. In 2012, out of 4.5 million votes cast, a decisive 490,000 more women voted in North Carolina than men.
If Republicans do not earn the respect of urban voters, younger voters, women voters and North Carolina’s fast-growing communities of international, religious, ethnic, and ideological diversity, it’s simply a matter of time when they will lose the opportunity to lead the state.
Again, from the State of the State report, North Carolina is the 20th “Most Conservative.”
Conservatives/Moderates/Liberals
- National average is 35.7% Conservative, 36% Moderate; 23.2% Liberal
- Top 10 most Conservative states are Alabama, Idaho, Arkansas, North Dakota, Utah, Mississippi, Wyoming, Louisiana, Oklahoma
- North Carolina is the 20th most Conservative state
- North Carolina is 39.1% Conservative; 36.3% Moderate; 19.6% Liberal
So, you can see why groups like the Human Rights Campaign would target North Carolina; why state Democrats would think that 2016 offers an opportunity to regain political power.
But there is an anomaly in the Gallup State of the State study that helps inform why Republicans are encouraged that they will survive the potential political threat of the uproar over the HB2 legislation. You see, the same state that is only the 30th most Republican friendly and the 20th most conservative state … is also the 9th most religious state.
That’s the political fact about North Carolina that Democrats failed to value when they chose to join forces willy-nilly with the Human Rights Campaign in opposition to HB2.
Very Religious/Moderately Religious/Nonreligious
- National average is 40% Very Religious; 29% Moderately; 31% Nonreligious
- North Carolina is 49% Very Religious; 29% Moderately; 22% Nonreligious
- Top 10 Very Religious states are Mississippi, Alabama, Utah, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky
- North Carolina is the 9th most religious state in the United States
A new study by Gallup released May 26, 2016 shows that 50% of Americans are Protestant Christians, and that only 41% of Protestant Christians believe LGBT relations are morally acceptable. Those who seek to lead a religious swing state like North Carolina must honor religious conservatives while at the same time ensuring that no one is discriminated against.
Protestants throughout America are tired of having their religious beliefs disrespected in debates like the one surrounding HB2 in North Carolina. Tired of having their religious values debased by those who think it’s clever to erect billboards that read, Welcome to North Carolina. Due to our stance on LGBT rights, please set your clock back 100 years.
North Carolina leaders are not alone in their concerns about the uncertainties of the growth of the entirely new body of laws relating to gender identity. Again, this is all new law.
Eleven states have filed a lawsuit against the Obama administration, accusing them of violating the U.S. Constitution by turning “workplaces and educational settings across the country into laboratories for a massive social experiment, flouting the democratic process and running roughshod over common-sense policies protecting children and basic privacy rights.”
It is because of litigation that HB2 is ultimately going to be a win-win politically. These lawsuits are likely to lead to a clarification of issues relating to privacy rights in bathrooms and locker rooms and establish new definitions and protections for LGBT citizens.
The bottom line is that an incumbent governor in a Southern state with an improving economy and a successful first term is in a far greater position to parlay his power and influence into a political advantage than a Democratic challenger.
The accolades that McCrory can use in his political battle with Roy Cooper this fall continue to amass. Most governors will never but dream of winning the Prosperity Cup, seeing their state ranked as the #1 place in the United States for business competitiveness; enjoying the fulfillment that comes from knowing your state has the fastest growing GDP in the nation.
Thanks to an improving economy, a record of accomplishment that now includes the $2 billion Connect NC infrastructure bond, coupled with a visionary plan, plenty of money, personal likability and crossover appeal among independent-leaning Democrats, Governor Pat McCrory enjoys a decisive advantage in the race for governor.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John Davis
President Kasich Most Likely to Succeed where President Obama Failed; the United States of America March 31, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 5 10:13 am Obama’s Regret In the beginning, President Barack Obama intended to unite Blue State Democrats and Red State Republicans in an all-out assault on the nation’s problems. He didn’t. He
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President Kasich Most Likely to Succeed where President Obama Failed; the United States of America
March 31, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 5 10:13 am
Obama’s Regret
In the beginning, President Barack Obama intended to unite Blue State Democrats and Red State Republicans in an all-out assault on the nation’s problems. He didn’t. He didn’t because national unity was never as important as ideological pride.
Now, in the final months of his administration, the nation is bitterly divided; the federal government hopelessly dysfunctional. Debilitating problems are compounded daily by inaction.
The Democratic president and his allies have said either accept the liberal alternative or we will circumvent Congress with executive orders. The Republican Congress and their allies have insisted either accept the conservative solution or we will shut down the government.
And so, we have become the house divided that President Lincoln cautioned against and President Obama intended to avoid. “It’s one of the few regrets of my presidency,” Obama said during his January 13, 2016, State of the Union Address, “that the rancor and suspicion between the parties has gotten worse instead of better.”
It wasn’t supposed to end this way.
On January 3, 2005, the cover of Newsweek magazine featured a picture of newly-elected U.S. Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, with the title, Seeing Purple: A Rising Star Who Wants to Get beyond Blue Versus Red.
The story was about how an unknown Illinois state senator with a funny name inspired tens of millions of Americans with a nationally televised keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in Boston in 2004. His message was one of hope that Blue State Democrats and Red State Republicans could work together to solve the nation’s problems.
“There is not a liberal America and a conservative America — there is the United States of America,” Obama implored as Democrats cheered, “There is not a black America and a white America and Latino America and Asian America — there’s the United States of America.”
But something happened to that rising star who dreamed of leading the country beyond blue versus red into an era of collaborative problem-solving. On January 31, 2008, the National Journal published its ratings of members of Congress, disclosing that the #1 most liberal member of the U.S. Senate was Barack Obama. Ideological pride had obscured his vision of a united America.
Now, eleven years after the speech that launched his presidential aspirations, President Obama finds himself face to face with the realization that his failure to unite the country has severely limited his legacy. His polarizing leadership style is why voters gave Republicans majorities in the U.S. Senate and House, and why most state capitals have become hotbeds of conservative activism.
Republicans are no better
Of course, Republicans have contributed their fair share to the worsening of the rancor and suspicion between the parties. On October 23, 2010, then-U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, stated in an interview with the National Journal, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one term president.”
U.S. House Republicans have shown no respect for diversity of opinion in America. Like Obama, ideological pride has kept them from collaborative problem solving. King Solomon was right when he wrote in Proverbs 16:18, “Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall.” A haughty liberal President; haughty Congressional conservatives. A fall.
Ideological haughtiness is why most of the major problems faced by the United States at the beginning of the Obama administration are for all practical purposes the same as the problems we face today. Government is still rigged by the politically influential; trade deficits are still counted in the hundreds of billions, new 21st century economic superpowers are integrating their economies around the world, becoming less and less dependent on the United States consumer.
The national debt has doubled to over $19 trillion under President Obama, healthcare funding is chaotic, immigration policy is unenforceable and terrorism continues to creep closer to home. Saddest of all, 1-in-6 Americans live in poverty; 45 million are on food stamps. The dignity of employment has given way to a lifetime of dependency on government.
Who can unite the country?
The 2016 presidential race offers American voters the single most influential opportunity to end the rancor and suspicion between the parties and begin a new era of leaders who will swallow their ideological pride and work together to solve the nation’s problems. Only one candidate still in the running has exemplified the personal character and leadership style to unite the country, and that candidate is John Kasich, Governor of Ohio.
Hillary Clinton could not unite the country. On October 13, 2015, Clinton told Anderson Cooper during the CNN Presidential Debate that the enemy she was proudest of was Republicans. She would be a third Obama term. Just another polarizing, haughty liberal president.
Clinton has a -11 net favorable opinion in Gallup’s March 30, 2016 study of the views Americans have of the leading presidential contenders. Comparatively, Bernie Sanders has greater potential to be a unifying force in America than Clinton. The new Gallup study shows Sanders with a +10 net favorable rating. But conservatives would never unite behind a socialist.
Ted Cruz could not unite the country. He is the consummate ideologically haughty conservative who has no respect for diversity of opinion in the United States. If Cruz were to become president in 2016, voters would give both houses of Congress to the Democrats in 2018.
Cruz has a -16 net favorable opinion in the March 30, 2016 Gallup study. In today’s Real Clear Politics matchup’s of potential General Election competitors, Ted Cruz would lose to Clinton and Sanders.
Donald Trump could not unite the country. He has managed to alienate most of America’s women and minorities with offensive statements, personal views and conduct and that clearly disqualify him from any further consideration.
Trump has a -35 net favorable opinion in the March 30, 2016 Gallup study. A whopping 65% of all Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. A new CNN poll released last Thursday, March 24, 2016, found that 73% of registered female voters in the United States have an unfavorable view of Trump. Trump has no chance of winning. According to Real Clear Politics, Trump would lose to Clinton by 11 points and Sanders by 17 points this fall.
John Kasich could unite the country. Gallup’s new study of presidential contenders has Kasich with a net favorable opinion among Americans of +19 points, the highest of any candidate. But the best indicator of Kasich’s potential to unite the country can be found in CBS News exit polls the day he won 86 of 88 counties in his 2014 campaign for reelection as Governor of Ohio.
Republican Governor John Kasich, in a state carried twice by President Obama, won the backing of 60% of female voters, 56% of 18-to-29-year-old voters, 26% of African-American voters, 25% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, 69% of Independents, and 53% of union households.
President Barack Obama intended to unite Blue State Democrats and Red State Republicans in an all-out assault on the nation’s problems. He didn’t. National unity was never as important as ideological pride.
President Kasich is the most likely to succeed where President Obama failed; the United States of America.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
NC Governor’s Race: Big Primary Victory and Connect NC Win Give General Election Advantage to McCrory March 16, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 4 4:13 pm Connect NC wins 2-to-1; McCrory wins 82% On Tuesday, March 15, 2016, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory seized the advantage in his race for a second term with
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NC Governor’s Race: Big Primary Victory and Connect NC Win Give General Election Advantage to McCrory
March 16, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 4 4:13 pm
Connect NC wins 2-to-1; McCrory wins 82%
On Tuesday, March 15, 2016, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory seized the advantage in his race for a second term with an 82% Republican primary victory and a 2-to-1 win (66%-to-34%) for Connect NC, a $2 billion infrastructure bond.
McCrory’s primary rout erases any doubt about his solid support among Republicans. But even more important is the political value of the Connect NC bond win to his race in the General Election with Attorney General Roy Cooper, the Democratic Party nominee.
Voters in 76 of 100 counties will see the Connect NC bond money being spent locally. Investments include well-regarded institutions like the UNC System, the NC Community College System, state parks, National Guard, water/sewer projects, the state zoo and agriculture research.
As accomplished and capable as Roy Cooper is, the 2016 race for governor is a referendum on Gov. McCrory’s first term. Now, thanks to an improving economy, his leadership on the budget and Connect NC, he has plenty of feathers in his cap to impress persuadable voters.
Under McCrory’s leadership, the unemployment rate has steadily improved, taxes have been cut, a $2.5 billion unemployment insurance debt to the federal government has been paid, a $1 billion rainy day fund has been set aside, and K-12 funding has been increased.
However, those accomplishments have a partisan taint. Deals between a Republican governor and a Republican-led legislature. The unique political value of Connect NC is that it had overwhelming bipartisan support.
Swing State Crossover Appeal
Pat McCrory’s seven terms as Mayor of the City of Charlotte seasoned him well to lead an urban dominant swing state. His successful leadership of the Connect NC bond referendum adds to his potential for winning crossover independent-leaning Democratic voters statewide.
McCrory understands that quality of life not only depends on government investment in urban priorities like public transportation, performing arts centers and sports arenas, but it also depends on the state’s investment in broader priorities like the UNC System, NC Community College System, state parks, National Guard, the state zoo and agriculture research.
Look for the Connect NC bond referendum victory to have an immediate positive impact on McCrory’s job approval in public opinion polls. More importantly, it will make it increasingly difficult for Democratic nominee Roy Cooper to make the case that only Democrats are visionaries willing to make progressive investments in the quality of life of all North Carolinians.
Granted, Roy Cooper’s latest report to the State Board of Elections shows him with $5.7 million Cash on Hand compared to McCrory’s $4.3 million. However, it’s early in the fundraising cycle; and, it will take a far greater advantage than he currently has to persuade voters that there is a compelling reason to change governors in light of McCrory’s first-term accomplishments.
Southern Democrats have an Inherent Disadvantage
All Southern states have Republican governors except two, Virginia and Louisiana.
David Vitter, the GOP nominee for governor in Louisiana last fall, lost because he got caught with prostitutes. His telephone number was found in the “D.C. Madam’s” client book.
Virginia has a Democrat in the governor’s mansion because the GOP radical right took over the state convention and nominated Ken Cuccinelli, an arch conservative that the establishment refused to support financially. Literally. Just two outside SuperPACs (gun control and environmental issues), spent more money against Cuccinelli than he raised all year.
Not true in North Carolina. North Carolina’s GOP establishment is well behind Gov. Pat McCrory. And, after an 82% win in the Republican gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, it’s obvious that the rank-and-file is also fairly satisfied with McCrory.
The bottom line is that a Republican incumbent governor in a Southern state with an improving economy and a successful first term is in a far greater position to parlay his power and influence into a political advantage than a challenger with an inherent disadvantage.
The inherent disadvantage of all Southern Democratic candidates is that the Democratic Party continues to cling to 20th century leaders and ideas as if they are sacred relics.
Democrats in North Carolina are not the enlightened party they once were. And, they have no hope of becoming the enlightened party until they say goodbye to the glory days of yore.
That inherent disadvantage is why Democrats continue to lose the South, and why they will not be of much help to Cooper; that is unless they change with respect for the new Southern voter.
Thanks to an improving economy, a record of accomplishment that now includes the $2 billion Connect NC infrastructure bond, coupled with a visionary plan, plenty of money, personal likability and crossover appeal among independent-leaning Democrats, McCrory begins the General Election race with a decisive advantage in the race for Governor of North Carolina.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Is Trump at all a Good Man? Is He at all a Steady Hand? Do His Accomplishments Thunder Louder than His Words? February 16, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 3 4:13 pm In Memoriam: Antonin Scalia, 1936-2016; first Italian American Supreme Court Justice. Georgetown, Valedictorian; Harvard Law, Magna Cum Laude. Family. Faith. Champion of
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Is Trump at all a Good Man? Is He at all a Steady Hand? Do His Accomplishments Thunder Louder than His Words?
February 16, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 3 4:13 pm
In Memoriam: Antonin Scalia, 1936-2016; first Italian American Supreme Court Justice. Georgetown, Valedictorian; Harvard Law, Magna Cum Laude. Family. Faith. Champion of conservative jurisprudence.
Is Trump a good man? A steady hand?
On Friday, February 12, 2016, The Wall Street Journal Columnist Peggy Noonan wrote an opinion piece titled, Trump, Sanders and the American Rebellion, in which she raised two compelling questions about the suitability of Donald Trump for the Oval Office.
First, after suggesting that Trump’s political future will be determined by the answers to her questions, Noonan asks, “Is he at all a good man? Underneath the foul mouthed flamboyance is he in it for America?” Then, Noonan asks, “Is he fully stable? He acts like a nut, calling people bimbos, flying off the handle with grievances. Is he mature, reliable? Is he at all a steady hand?”
Before I answer those questions, I want to remind you that I have not been kind to Trump.
Last August 12, 2015, in a report titled, Trump the Naked Streaker at the Pregame Show, I wrote that Trump was merely the “pre-game entertainment,” and that he was only in the race to promote his business interests.
Again, on August 19, 2015, I reminded readers in a report titled, Trumped-up Political Credibility, that Donald Trump told Fortune magazine in an article published April 3, 2000, “It’s very possible that I could be the first presidential candidate to run and make money on it.”
However, since last August, I have grown to appreciate why American voters have given up on the Bush/Obama era of Republican and Democratic leaders in Washington. I understand why so many working class Americans have embraced a braggadocios foul-mouthed outsider like Trump.
Voters see clearly now that the federal government is rigged by both parties for the benefit of their most loyal political constituencies along with those who fund their campaigns.
Voters now know that congressional groups who wave the righteous banners of “rights,” “values,” and “principles” like the Democratic Congressional Black Caucus and the Republican Freedom Caucus are nothing more than partisan extremists who would sell the country down the river before they would buy each other a cup of coffee and work together to find compromise solutions to the nation’s problems.
For ten years, “principled” congressional leaders in both parties have had the authority to solve the problems of the day and they have not done it. War, terrorism, jobs, the economy, immigration, poverty, social security, healthcare, deficit spending, the national debt and the culture of corruption are all still on the most important problems list and getting worse.
That’s why voters have concluded in 2016 that the last thing America needs is more “principled” leadership in Washington. We already have 535 “principled” members of Congress along with a principled president. Principled leaders are responsible for the institutionalized ineptitude that characterizes the United States federal government.
Is Trump at all a good man? Is he at all a steady hand? Do his accomplishments thunder louder than his words?
Do Trump’s accomplishments thunder louder than his words?
There are four reasons so many working class Americans have embraced a braggadocios foul-mouthed outsider like Donald Trump.
1) Authenticity/Honesty (not like our “principled,” politically/ideologically correct leaders);
2) Not for Sale/Self-funded (not like our “principled” leaders who sell access and influence);
3) Hopeful/Positive Message “Make America Great Again” (not like our “principled” Congress who put political and ideological bickering ahead of collaborative problem-solving)
4) Extraordinarily Successful in creating wealth and job opportunities worldwide during a time when working class Americans and the U.S. government need new wealth/income/revenue.
Is Trump at all a good man? Is he at all a steady hand?
I would like to answer those two questions in the context of an adage attributed to Ralph Waldo Emerson, paraphrasing, what we do thunders louder than what we say.
- Do Trump’s business accomplishments here in the U.S. and around the world thunder so loudly that they drown out the foolishness we hear him say on the stump?
- Are character strengths that enable the building of a global business empire useful to political consensus building and problem solving in the Oval Office?
Think about those questions while you look at the following list of accomplishments:
Trump Tower, New York City
Trump World Tower, New York City
Trump Parc, New York City
Trump Parc East, New York City
Trump Park Avenue, New York City
Trump Palace, New York City
Trump Place, New York City
610 Park Avenue, New York City
Trump Plaza, New York City
Trump International Hotel & Tower, New York City
Trump International Hotel & Tower, Chicago
Trump International Hotel, Las Vegas
Trump International Golf Links & Hotel, Aberdeen, Scotland
Trump International Golf Links & Hotel, Doonbeg, Ireland
Trump Turnberry Resort, Scotland
Trump International Hotel, Washington DC
Trump International Golf Club, Palm Beach, Florida
Trump National Golf Club, Jupiter, Florida
Trump National Golf Club, Washington DC
Trump National Doral, Miami
Trump National Golf Club, Colts Neck, NJ
Trump National Golf Club, Westchester, NY
Trump National Golf Club, Hudson Valley, NY
Trump National Golf Club, Bedminster, NJ
Trump National Golf Club, Philadelphia
Trump National Golf Club, Los Angeles
Trump National Golf Club, Charlotte
Trump Golf Links at Ferry Point, Bronx, NY
The Albemarle Estate at Trump Winery, Charlottesville
Trump Vineyard Estates, Charlottesville
The Mar-A-Lago Club, Palm Beach, Florida
The Estates at Trump National, Los Angeles
Le Château des Palmiers, St. Martin
Trump Seven Springs, Bedford, NY
Townhouses adjacent to Trump Plaza, New York City
Two Private Homes in Palm Beach, Florida
Private Home in Beverly Hills, CA
40 Wall Street, New York City
NikeTown, New York City
1290 Avenue of the Americas, New York City
555 California St., San Francisco, CA
Two Shopping Centers in New York City
Trump Tower Mumbai, India
Trump Towers Pune, India
Trump Towers Istanbul, Turkey
Trump Tower Punta del Este, Uruguay
Trump Tower at Century City, Philippines
Trump Hollywood, CA
Trump International Beach Resort, Miami
Trump Towers Sunny Isles, Miami
The Estates at Trump International Golf Club, Dubai, UAE
Trump Hotel Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Trump International Hotel and Tower, Waikiki, Hawaii
Trump Ocean Club, Panama City, Panama
Trump International Hotel and Tower, Vancouver, Canada
Trump International Hotel and Tower, Toronto, Canada
Trump Soho, New York City
Trump Tower at City Center, White Plains, NY
Trump Plaza New Rochelle, NY
Trump Parc Stamford, Connecticut
Trump Park Residences Yorktown, NY
Trump Plaza Residences, Jersey City, NJ
Trump International Hotel and Tower, Lido, West Java, Indonesia
Trump World Golf Club, Dubai, UAE
Donald Trump is a graduate of the Wharton School of Finance. He has written more than 15 books, including, The Art of the Deal, one of the most successful business books of all time.
But, are the character strengths that enabled Trump to build a global business empire useful to political consensus building and problem solving in our nation’s capital?
Think about what our 535 “principled” members of Congress and our “principled” President have accomplished with our national problems like war, terrorism, jobs, the economy, immigration, poverty, social security, healthcare, deficit spending, the national debt and the culture of corruption.
Trump voters have concluded that you simply cannot accomplish what their candidate has accomplished without having extraordinary leadership qualities, the kind that lend themselves to the skill set needed in the Oval Office today; foremost among them, the skill to create wealth and job opportunities in America by negotiating successful deals with egotistical adversaries in Washington and in capitals around the world.
Is Trump at all a good man? Is he at all a steady hand?
Do his accomplishments thunder louder than his words?
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
What Choice Do American Voters Have in 2016 Other Than a Revolutionary Political Realignment? February 5, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 2 10:13 am Authentic Revolutionary Leaders with Money are Dangerous If a 74-year-old Independent socialist can come from 41 points behind to tie the most admired woman in the world in the Democratic
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What Choice Do American Voters Have in 2016 Other Than a Revolutionary Political Realignment?
February 5, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 2 10:13 am
Authentic Revolutionary Leaders with Money are Dangerous
If a 74-year-old Independent socialist can come from 41 points behind to tie the most admired woman in the world in the Democratic Caucus in Iowa thanks to a 70-point advantage (84% to 14%) among-18-to-29-year-old voters, then a political realignment is underway.
If Bernie Sanders, an authentic political revolutionary, can raise $75.1 million with an anti-Wall Street/Washington D.C. battle cry about “a rigged economy where the wealthiest 1% earn 99% of new income while middle class wages stagnate,” then a political realignment led by an authentic revolutionary against Washington D.C. ineptitude and private greed is underway.
Authentic revolutionary leaders with money are dangerous.
If the top two winners of the Iowa Republican Caucus include the most despised Republican U.S. Senator in the 54-member Senate Republican Conference (Ted Cruz: 27.6%) and a rogue, bombastic billionaire with bad hair and no elective office experience (Trump 24.3%), then a political realignment led by authentic revolutionaries is underway.
Further evidence of a major realignment in the GOP is the fact that the top four vote-getters in the Iowa Republican Caucus, with a combined landslide total of 84.3%, include two Cuban American first-term U.S. Senators (Cruz 27.6%; Rubio 23.1%), an African American neurosurgeon with no experience in public office (Carson 9.3%), and Trump (24.3%).
Those top four non-traditional Iowa Republican Caucus winners have raised $250 million (Cruz $89.9 million; Rubio $77.2 million; Carson $64.2; Trump $19.4).
Authentic revolutionary leaders with money are dangerous.
Only Authentic Revolutionary Leaders Need Apply
The political realignment of 2016 transcends all traditional notions of reasonable behavior and tenants of electability. Those who have worked their way up the ladder of public elective leadership over time are now seen as part of the problem.
Hillary Clinton, the grande dame of American politics, finds herself out of place at the casting call for the lead role in the new drama about America’s future. She desperately clings to a sense of superior capability, yet younger voters only see an old general fighting the last war.
Jeb Bush has raised $155.5 million, more money than any competitor, but he, like Hillary, is not an authentic revolutionary leader. They are members of privileged family political dynasties.
Jeb Bush, like Charles and Thomas Adams, sons and brothers of U.S. Presidents, John Adams (1797-1801) and John Quincy Adams (1825-1829), is the son and brother of presidents who yearns to be his own man but cannot escape the gravity of Bush administration baggage.
All presidential elections are about the future. Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton are mired in the past. They are the consummate establishment candidates during an antiestablishment election-year that sees most voters realigning behind authentic revolutionary leaders.
Why are voters demanding authentic revolutionary leaders in 2016? Because the most important problems facing the country in 2016 are the same problems the country faced in 2006.
2006 List of National Problems is the Same as the 2016 List
The first act of the 2016 presidential campaign drama was written ten years ago in 2006.
That was the year when Republicans all over America turned on GOP President George W. Bush and a Republican-led U.S. Congress because they were spending money like liberal Democrats while neglecting the public’s most important concerns about war, terrorism, jobs, the economy, immigration, poverty, social security, healthcare and a culture of corruption in DC.
Democrats seized on the disdain Republicans felt for their own leaders and won a majority in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well as a majority of the nation’s governors and state legislators. In 2007, they elected the first woman U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Unfortunately for Republicans, the list of the most important voter concerns of 2006 had not changed by the time presidential election year 2008 rolled around. Barack Obama won the race for the Oval Office because Americans no longer trusted a Republican president with the list.
Unfortunately for Democrats, President Obama neglected the list of the most important voter concerns of 2006 and decided instead to make his own list, putting healthcare at the top when voters were reeling from the worst recession since the Great Depression.
In 2010, it was Democrats who turned against the Democratic establishment in Washington, ceding the U.S. House and a majority of state governments to Republicans.
Then came the presidential election of 2012 and the midterm elections of 2014. Republicans argued that President Obama was to blame for lack of progress on the 2006 list of national problems. Democrats insisted that the Republican hardliners in Congress were to blame.
For ten years, establishment leaders in both parties have been given the power to solve the problems of the day and they have not done it. War, terrorism, jobs, the economy, immigration, poverty, social security, healthcare, deficit spending, the national debt and the culture of corruption in Washington DC, are all still on the list and getting worse.
Hence, you are seeing a political realignment in 2016 led by authentic revolutionaries with money. Most Americans have concluded that the reason the nation’s problems have not been solved is because of inept establishment leaders in Washington, DC.
Look at the list. What choice do voters have in 2016 other than a revolutionary realignment?
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