johndavis

Will the Arrogance of Invulnerability Mask the GOP’s Threat of Losing and Blind Their Strategic Judgment?

by johndavis, March 1, 2017

Will the Arrogance of Invulnerability Mask the GOP’s Threat of Losing and Blind Their Strategic Judgment? March 1, 2017 Vol. X, No. 2 11:13 am Always Remember that You are Vulnerable While watching Republican President Donald Trump’s first address to the joint session of the Republican-led U.S. Congress last night, I thought about the
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Will the Arrogance of Invulnerability Mask the GOP’s Threat of Losing and Blind Their Strategic Judgment?

March 1, 2017 Vol. X, No. 2 11:13 am

Always Remember that You are Vulnerable

While watching Republican President Donald Trump’s first address to the joint session of the Republican-led U.S. Congress last night, I thought about the same scene eight years ago, when Democratic President Barack Obama stood for the first time before a Democratic-led U.S. Congress, and I wondered if Republicans realize just how vulnerable they are.

That’s the most important political lesson I’ve learned from watching campaigns for power over the public purse for over 40 years. Always remember that you are vulnerable.

Eight years ago, on this day, March 1, 2009 … the 41st day of President Barack Obama’s first term … Democrats wielded all the political power in Washington, DC and in Raleigh.

So much power that they forgot they were vulnerable.

In addition to a Democrat in the White House on March 1, 2009, Nancy Pelosi, D-California, was Speaker of the U.S. House; Harry Reid, D-Nevada, was Senate Majority Leader.

On March 1, 2009, Pelosi led a 257-to-178 Democratic majority in the U.S. House. On the Senate side, Reid had a filibuster-proof majority of 58 Democrats and two independents who caucused with the Democrats.

In Raleigh, on March 1, 2009, Democrats ruled unchecked. Beverly Perdue, D-Craven was Governor, Mark Basnight, D-Dare was President Pro Tem of the NC Senate, and Joe Hackney, D-Orange was Speaker of the NC House.

So much power that they forgot they were vulnerable.

During the first 41 days of his administration, President Obama’s job approval per CNN had reached a high of 76%, with only 23% disapproving, for a net positive of + 53 points.

With a job approval of 76%, you can do as you please. Right?

Wrong.

By election day, November 3, 2009, President Obama’s job approval per an Associated Press nationwide poll was 54%, with 43% disapproving.

During 2009, Obama’s job approval plummeted from 74% to 54%
During 2009, Obama’s disapproval nearly doubled from 23% to 43%

In 2009, there were only two races for governor: New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans won both, despite the efforts of President Obama who personally campaigned on behalf of the Democrats.

The following year, Democrats would lose the special election for Teddy Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts and, in the fall of 2010, would lose the majority in the U.S. House, six seats in the U.S. Senate, six governors and a record net loss of 680 state legislative seats … including the legislative majorities in the North Carolina state senate and house.

All while they had all the power in Washington DC and Raleigh. So much power that they forgot they were vulnerable.

Because Democrats didn’t think they were vulnerable, they abandoned the middle and moved hard-left. It was President Obama’s ideological comfort zone. He had been rated the #1 most liberal member of the U.S. Senate by the National Journal during his short stint as a senator.

But then, because he didn’t think he was vulnerable, President Obama made a rookie mistake. He put healthcare reform at the top of his list of priorities when the nation was most concerned about jobs and the economy.

It cost Democrats dearly. The U.S. House and most state capitals in 2010. The U.S. Senate in 2014. The White House in 2016. Soon, the U.S. Supreme Court.

Maybe Lousy Job Approval Numbers are a Good Thing

Looking back on 2016, I never got the impression that Hillary Clinton and her team of political professionals thought that they were vulnerable to Donald Trump and his “basket of deplorables.” The arrogance of invulnerability masked the threat of losing to Trump and blinded their strategic judgment.

This fall, as in 2009, there are two governor’s races: Virginia and New Jersey. Both governors are term limited. Chris Christie, R-NJ, after two terms. Terry McAuliffe, D-VA after one term. (Virginia is the only state left where the governor is limited to one term).

Will President Donald Trump be a drag on Republicans this year? Will rookie mistakes of the Trump administration lead to a catastrophic loss of GOP power in America during the first-term midterm election in 2018?

Today, March 1, 2017, President Donald Trump’s average job approval per Real Clear Politics is only 44%, with 50% disapproving. That’s a job approval of 30-points below President Barack Obama at the same time eight years ago.

But, maybe that’s not all bad.

Maybe a lousy job approval number early in a presidential administration will turn out to be a good thing; like a cautionary warning.

We shall soon see.

As to whether Republicans will maintain their grip on power in Washington DC and Raleigh, it’s a bit too soon to tell.

All I know is after 40 years of watching campaigns, those who appear to be the least vulnerable are often the most vulnerable. That’s because the arrogance of invulnerability masks the threat of losing and blinds the strategic judgment of candidates and their professionals.

Little did we know eight years ago, when Democratic President Barack Obama stood for the first time before a Democratic-led U.S. Congress, just how vulnerable Democrats were.

I wonder if Republicans realize just how vulnerable they are today?

– END –

Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Need a Political Speaker for 2017? If you would like a sensible and entertaining summary of the results of the 2016 federal and state elections, go here to check John Davis’ availability.

Highlights of 2017 Speech: John Davis’ 2017 speech will draw conclusions about the implications of the 2016 results for your organization, as well as, the implications of the results for the 2018 and 2020 state and federal elections.

Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report and JDPR TrendLines here.

Will Trump Make the #1 Political Mistake of the Obama Administration: Picking the Wrong #1 Priority

by johndavis, January 17, 2017

Will Trump Make the #1 Political Mistake of the Obama Administration: Picking the Wrong #1 Priority January 17, 2017 Vol. X, No. 1 10:13 am Only 15% named “health care” as the #1 priority in 2009 Little did we know on this day in 2009, as the finishing touches were being made in preparation for
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Will Trump Make the #1 Political Mistake of the Obama Administration: Picking the Wrong #1 Priority

January 17, 2017 Vol. X, No. 1 10:13 am

Only 15% named “health care” as the #1 priority in 2009

Little did we know on this day in 2009, as the finishing touches were being made in preparation for the inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States, that in less than two years Democrats would suffer one of the most consequential political disasters in American history. Will Trump and the Republicans suffer the same fate in 2018?

In 2010, the Democrats’ 63-seat net loss in US House races had not been seen since 1938. Furthermore, the Democrats lost their rare filibuster-proof advantage in the US Senate.

Among the states, Democrats lost a net of 680 legislative seats in 2010, breaking the record set by Republicans after the post-Watergate GOP political disaster of 1974. Democrats also went from having a majority of the nation’s governorships to only 20 of the 50 state chief executives.

A catastrophic loss of political power at the federal and state level is the lot awaiting the GOP in 2018 if Donald Trump and the Republican congressional leadership make the same mistake that Barack Obama and the Democratic congressional leaders made during his first two years in office.

The mistake? They picked the wrong #1 priority.

In 2009 and 2010, during the worst recession since the Great Depression, 56% of Americans told Gallup that they were worried most about jobs and the economy. That is the finding of a Gallup study of the yearly averages of the most important problems during the Obama years.

However, President Obama and the Democrats in Congress made health care reform their #1 priority, an issue deemed most important by only 15% of Americans.

Then, the political disaster of 2010.

Top Democrat Chuck Schumer said health care was the wrong priority

US Senator Chuck Schumer, D-NY, who as Senate Minority Leader is the nation’s highest ranking elected Democrat, told a National Press Club audience in November, 2014, “Unfortunately, Democrats blew the opportunity the American people gave them in electing Obama and a Democratic Congress in 2008 amid a recession. We took their mandate and put all our focus on the wrong problem — health care reform.”

Schumer’s 2014 National Press Club appearance was in the aftermath of the loss of the Democratic majority in the US Senate. With the exception of holding the White House in 2012, the ill-fated decision to make health care reform the #1 priority of President Obama’s first two years in office has become the political gift that keeps on giving … to Republicans.

In the Campaigns of 2014 and 2016, health care reform continued to be effectively used by Republicans to defeat Democrats because Democrats foolishly continued to overstate its relative importance in American life. What was more important?

The Gallup study of the most important problems during the Obama Administration, with a sample size of about 96,000 respondents (12,000 per year for each of the eight Obama years), shows that health care was never as important as the economy, jobs and government reform.

Health care was not on Gallup’s annual average top three most important problems in any of the last six years of the Obama Administration
Every single year from 2011 through 2016, “Government” joined the “Economy” and “Jobs” as one of the annual average top three most important problems

The political consequences of the Democrats’ mistake of selecting health care reform as their #1 priority in 2010 were immediate. The devastation began with the loss of US Sen. Teddy Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts to a Republican in January, 2010, and continued throughout the Obama Administration up to and including the loss of the White House in 2016 … and the likely loss of the ideological advantage on the US Supreme Court during Trump’s first term.

Will Trump and the Republicans suffer the same fate in 2018? Not if they stay focused on the issues of the economy, jobs and government reform.

Trump starts with low favorable ratings AND high expectations on jobs

A new Washington Post-ABC News Poll released this morning, January 17, 2017, shows that Donald Trump will begin his first term with the lowest favorable rating (40%) of any president during the past four decades. The two presidents who began their administrations with the highest favorable ratings were Barack Obama (79%) and Jimmy Carter (78%). Both presidents set the Democratic Party back for years with policy mistakes that fueled insurgent Republicans.

The second lowest favorable rating was Ronald Reagan (58%). His administration became the solid foundation of the modern Republican Party.

What is most relevant for new presidents is that they meet the expectations of most Americans by staying focused on the top priorities of most Americans. Today, according to the new Washington Post-ABC News Poll, Americans expect Trump to succeed with the top priorities:

61% expect Trump to do an “excellent or good job” handling the economy
59% expect Trump to do an “excellent or good job” creating jobs
56% expect Trump to do an “excellent or good job” handling the threat of terrorism
50% expect Trump to do an “excellent or good job” handling the federal budget deficit
50% expect Trump to do an “excellent or good job” of helping the middle class

Americans may give Trump lousy favorable ratings, but they sure do have high expectations that he will stay focused on the priorities of the day and do an “excellent or good job” of handling the most important problems of the day.

If Trump, along with the Republicans in Congress, will stay focused on the expectations of American voters and avoid the Obama Administration mistake of creating their own list of priorities, they will set the GOP up for winning the US Senate and US House majorities in the midterm elections of 2018, thereby ensuring a conservative US Supreme Court.

Otherwise, Republicans will suffer the same fate in 2018 that Democrats did in 2010.

– END –

Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Need a Political Speaker for 2017? If you would like a sensible and entertaining summary of the results of the 2016 federal and state elections, go here to check John Davis’ availability.

Highlights of 2017 Speech: John Davis’ 2017 speech will draw conclusions about the implications of the 2016 results for your organization, as well as, the implications of the results for the 2018 and 2020 state and federal elections.

Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report and JDPR TrendLines here.

U.S. Supreme Court the Biggest Political Prize of 2016; Conservative Wing Likely Majority During Trump’s First Term

by johndavis, December 14, 2016

U.S. Supreme Court the Biggest Political Prize of 2016; Conservative Wing Likely Majority During Trump’s First Term December 14, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 16 7:13 am The Biggest Prize of 2016 Presidential Race On Saturday, December 11, 2016, with a Republican victory in the Louisiana U.S. Senate runoff election, the GOP moved one step
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U.S. Supreme Court the Biggest Political Prize of 2016; Conservative Wing Likely Majority During Trump’s First Term

December 14, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 16 7:13 am

The Biggest Prize of 2016 Presidential Race

On Saturday, December 11, 2016, with a Republican victory in the Louisiana U.S. Senate runoff election, the GOP moved one step closer to securing the biggest political prize of all in 2016, a majority conservative wing on the U.S. Supreme Court. Senate Republicans now have a 52-member majority in the chamber tasked by the nation’s founding fathers in 1789 with confirming the President’s federal court nominees.

The nation’s highest court currently consists of a four-member liberal wing (Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Sotomayor), three conservatives (Alito, Roberts, Thomas), one swing vote (Kennedy), and the vacant seat of conservative Justice Antonin Scalia, who died February 13, 2016.

Filling the Scalia vacancy, likely one of the first orders of business of the Senate in 2017, will make the court ideologically balanced at 4-4, with Kennedy as the critical swing vote. It will be the next vacancy that will give Republicans the opportunity to create a majority conservative wing.

Regarding the next vacancy: The average age of retirement from the court is 79 years old. Three justices are at or past the average retirement threshold: Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal, will be 84 years old next March; Anthony Kennedy, a swing vote, will be 81 years old in July, 2017, and Stephen Breyer, a liberal, will be 79-years-old in August, 2017.

The court’s ideological pivot will occur if one of those three retires during the next four years.

Partisan Balance of Lower Federal Courts Will Also Shift

With a Republican-majority Senate likely throughout President Trump’s first term, the GOP is well positioned to build a conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court and reverse the Obama administration’s successful takeover of the lower federal courts.

As important as the Supreme Court is, they only hear 70-80 cases a year out of 7,000-8,000 requests, issuing 50-60 opinions. Most of the heavy lifting at the federal level is done in the U.S. District courts (673 district judgeships) and the U.S. Courts of Appeals (179 circuit judgeships), where 350,000-400,000 cases are being managed at any given time.

According to The Brookings Institution, in 2009, as President Obama began his administration, Republican appointees held 56% of the 179 federal circuit court judgeships to only 36% held by Democratic appointees (8% vacant).

In 2016, after 55 confirmed Obama nominees, Republican appointees made up only 42% of the circuit court judgeships to 53% held by Democratic appointees.

In January 2009, 10-of-13 U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals had Republican-majority appointees to only 1 Democratic-majority court (2 neither)
In January 2016, only 4-of-13 U.S. Circuit Appeals courts had Republican-majority appointees to 9 Democratic-majority circuit courts

U.S Senate Majority Up for Grabs in 2018

The first critical hurdle for Republicans to ensure four years of conservative appointments to the federal courts will be the midterm federal elections of 2018. It is also the first opportunity for Democrats to stop the GOP takeover of the federal courts.

Although historically the first midterm elections during a new presidential administration do not favor the party in the White House in U.S. House races, the GOP structural advantage in the U.S. Senate races will be a formidable challenge for Democrats:

In 2018, Democrats will be defending 25 seats, 10 in states Trump won
In 2018, Republicans will be defending 8 seats, 7 in states Trump won

If Republicans maintain the U.S. Senate majority in 2018, it is highly likely that many decisions by liberal, Democrat-appointed federal judges on issues such as Affirmative Action, LGBT Rights, Election Laws (Voter ID, Same-day Registration, Early Voting), Abortion, Obamacare, Guns, Immigration, Public-sector unions, Citizens United, Religious Freedom … will eventually be overturned by a new era of conservative, Republican-appointed judges and justices.

Federal Court #1 Nemesis of Republicans in NC General Assembly

The prospects of a conservative U.S. Supreme Court and more Republican-appointed judges on the lower federal courts must be making Republicans in the North Carolina General Assembly giddy with anticipation. That is because their #1 nemesis on election law reform and social issues like marriage has been the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit in Richmond, Virginia.

The Fourth Circuit Court has 15 judges, 10 of whom were appointed by Democratic presidents … including three from North Carolina (Judge Allyson Duncan, Judge James Wynn, Jr., and Judge Albert Diaz).

Most of the significant legislative losses by North Carolina Republicans since their 2010 takeover of the General Assembly have been at the tip of the pen of federal court judges.

It was federal judges on the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals who declared the GOP-drawn congressional maps unconstitutional, requiring them to be redrawn and re-contested in 2016. It was federal judges who declared that Republican-drawn state legislative districts were unconstitutional, requiring remapping by March 15, 2017, and new elections in the fall of 2017.

It was a federal judge who ruled that HB2 could not be enforced by the UNC system. It was a ruling by the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals that voided North Carolina’s Amendment One, a law banning same-sex marriage.

In July, 2016, it was a 3-judge panel of Democratic appointees on the U.S. Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals that struck down the Republican voter ID law, declaring it racially discriminatory. It was federal judges who struck down laws eliminating same-day voter registration and out-of-precinct voting because the GOP-backed laws “target African Americans with almost surgical precision.”

Time and time again, federal judges appointed by Democrats on the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals have thwarted North Carolina Republican lawmakers.

Now, at the dawn of a conservative federal judiciary, those rulings may one day be overturned. Surely, that’s what Republicans lay awake and dream about.

A decidedly conservative Supreme Court means that the authority to decide many social policy issues will likely return to the states. It means that conservative states like Utah, Alabama, and Wyoming may have laws on controversial issues like abortion and marriage completely different from liberal states like Vermont, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

It means federal court rulings by judges who see racially discriminatory intent behind conservative election reform laws will be overturned by justices who see constitutionally permissible partisan intent.

The United States Supreme Court is by far the biggest political prize of 2016.

– END –

Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Need a Political Speaker for 2017? If you would like a sensible and entertaining summary of the results of the 2016 federal and state elections, go here to check John Davis’ availability.

Highlights of 2017 Speech: John Davis’ 2017 speech will draw conclusions about the implications of the 2016 results for your organization, as well as, the implications of the results for the 2018 and 2020 state and federal elections.

Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report and JDPR TrendLines here.

North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory Concedes; Urges Prayers for Governor-Elect Roy Cooper

by johndavis, December 5, 2016

North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory Concedes; Urges Prayers for Governor-Elect Roy Cooper December 5, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 15 4:13 pm “I ask all of us to please pray for our new governor, Roy Cooper.” Embattled North Carolina Republican Governor Pat McCrory issued a two-minute video statement early this afternoon, Monday, December
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North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory Concedes; Urges Prayers for Governor-Elect Roy Cooper

December 5, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 15 4:13 pm

“I ask all of us to please pray for our new governor, Roy Cooper.”

Embattled North Carolina Republican Governor Pat McCrory issued a two-minute video statement early this afternoon, Monday, December 5, 2016, conceding the governor’s race and calling on “all of us to please pray for our new governor, Roy Cooper.”

Just after 2 o’clock PM today, Governor-Elect Cooper acknowledged Governor McCrory’s decision to concede in an email. “I just received a call from Governor McCrory conceding the race and congratulating me on becoming the 75th governor of North Carolina,” Cooper wrote.

“It will be the honor of my life to serve this great state,” Cooper said in the email.

Governor McCrory’s list of economic accomplishments was the envy of most governors in the United States, and argued well for a successful race for a second term. However, McCrory made the politically fatal mistake of being the highest-profile proponent of a controversial LGBT rights issue known as HB2 (AKA, “The Bathroom Bill”). The law was passed in haste and in a fit of moral retribution by GOP state lawmakers after the Charlotte City Council enacted an ordinance allowing transgendered individuals to use bathroom facilities of their sexual identity.

HB2 caused an immediate backlash, with many of the state’s largest employers and well admired public and private leaders calling for its repeal. Although the economic impact of the law was grossly overstated, the loss of NCAA and ACC tournaments and relentless national and international ridicule weakened the resolve of many rank and file McCrory supporters.

However, HB2 alone did not cause McCrory to lose favor with most North Carolina voters. His entire term has been plagued by endless storms of controversies including dozens of vindictive battles with Republican legislative leaders, allegations of a quid pro quo on behalf of a contributor and friend who wanted to renew a $3 million prison contract, ethical questions about his relationship with his brother’s firm and whether he properly disclosed all of his financial interests, concerns about his relationship with his former employer, Duke Energy, following a major coal ash spill into the Dan River, his defense of election reforms deemed unconstitutional by the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals, and his support for a highly unpopular private contract to build toll roads on I-77 in north Mecklenburg County and southern Iredell County.

Again, Governor McCrory’s list of economic accomplishments was the envy of most governors in the United States. With this list, he should have won a second term easily:

$4.4 billion in tax relief (personal and corporate)
Paid off $2.5 billion unemployment ins debt
$1.6 billion rainy day fund (largest in history)
Maintained AAA bond rating (only 10 states)
#1 State GDP Growth; #1 Place for Business
Voters approved $2 Billion infrastructure bond
$428 million revenue surplus projected
Education budgets largest in history
Average teacher pay over $50,000 (1st in History)
High School graduation rates at all-time high
Exports grew at twice the national average

However, four years of constant negative news coverage created a smoldering resentment among tens of thousands of his most loyal supporters. By the time election day rolled around, it was not the merits of issues like HB2 that mattered as much as the ridicule, embarrassment and constant rancor associated with McCrory-backed policies and how he chose to govern.

In the final analysis, Cooper did not win the race for his first term as governor as much as McCrory lost the opportunity for a second term … by 10,263 votes out of 4,608,117 cast.

In 2012, McCrory carried Wake and Mecklenburg counties. In 2016, McCrory lost Wake County by 116,192 votes and lost Mecklenburg County by 136,628 votes. That’s two counties McCrory lost by 252,820 votes that he carried in 2012. And he only needed 10,264 votes to win.

Finally, there is a good side to Pat McCrory that we must not overlook. It’s the side that called on all of us today to “please pray for our new governor, Roy Cooper.” When all is said and done, Pat McCrory is a good man. And, he accomplished something that only 74 people in the history of the Great State of North Carolina have accomplished. He was governor.

May we all remember the good man that Pat McCrory is, and the good man that Roy Cooper is, and give them both the gift of our prayers during this season of family and faith.

– End –

Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report

John Davis

Trump is a Molotov Cocktail Thrown by Voters at a U.S. Government Rigged by Insiders for Insiders

by johndavis, November 9, 2016

Trump is a Molotov Cocktail Thrown by Voters at a U.S. Government Rigged by Insiders for Insiders November 9, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 14 9:13 am Note: This report is retitled with updated excerpts from the John Davis Political Report published October 17, 2016, that inform the election of Donald Trump as U.S.
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Trump is a Molotov Cocktail Thrown by Voters at a U.S. Government Rigged by Insiders for Insiders

November 9, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 14 9:13 am

Note: This report is retitled with updated excerpts from the John Davis Political Report published October 17, 2016, that inform the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President

Why Michael Moore Told Meet the Press that Trump Would Win

Sunday morning, October 16, while reading the news of the firebombing of the Republican Party Headquarters in Orange County, I remembered that Michael Moore, the documentary film maker from Flint, Michigan, told Chuck Todd on Meet the Press, Sunday, October 2, 2016, that Donald Trump was a “human Molotov Cocktail” that on Election Day angry voters were going to “throw into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”

Michael Moore, second only to Hillary Clinton as the Democrat Republicans despise the most, thought Donald Trump would win the presidency for the same reason the British middle class voted to leave the European Union in the June 23, 2016 Brexit decision. Here is Moore’s pitch:

“From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we used to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats…”

Those are the voters that Moore is talking about when he said to Chuck Todd, “They see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”

The person who threw the Molotov Cocktail through the window at the GOP headquarters in Hillsborough and painted “Nazi Republicans leave town or else,” was so angry at Republicans that he or she was willing to risk getting caught and going to jail.

That’s analogous to just how angry the Donald Trump voters are.

Read Michael Moore’s 5 REASONS WHY TRUMP WILL WIN. Admonishing Democrats for assuming that they have insurmountable advantages with demographic trends and the Electoral College map, Moore says, “If you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut.”

Rich and Powerful Enough to Stand Up to the Rich and Powerful

Donald Trump voters see him as the only candidate in the race who is rich and powerful enough to stand up to the rich and powerful insiders who have ignored the fears and concerns of a middle-class electorate struggling to make ends meet, all the while growing the federal largess with borrowed money to a historic national debt of $19.7 trillion.

There are 3,144 counties in the United States. Think about where the top 10 richest counties would be in light of the wealth amassed around our great cities from Miami to Philadelphia, New York and Boston; Cleveland and Chicago; Seattle, San Francisco, LA; Phoenix, Denver, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Charlotte, and RTP.

The astounding fact is that 5 of the top 10 wealthiest counties in the United States out of a total of 3,144 are located in the Washington, DC area. Four of the 5 wealthiest counties are in Northern Virginia (Loudoun, Falls Church, Fairfax, Arlington), plus Howard County, MD.

Thanks to WikiLeaks and documents exposed through the Freedom of Information Act, everyone knows that Hillary Clinton is a principal partner in the architectural firm that has rigged the federal government for decades. Everyone knows that Hillary Clinton is a consummate insider who has exploited her revered national stature for private financial gain.

In 2013 alone, Hillary Clinton received $9,680,000 for speaking fees. According to an itemization of speeches on her 2013 IRS tax return, she received $225,000 for 34 of 41 speeches. The speeches were to Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.

On Saturday, October 15, 2016, WikiLeaks released transcripts of Hillary Clinton’s three speeches to Goldman Sachs for which she was paid $675,000.

Bernie Sanders questioned Hillary Clinton’s ability to lead as president because of her financial ties to Wall Street. Time and again he asked her to reveal the content of her speeches to prove that she had not sold her soul to those paying her a quarter of a million dollars for a talk.

Now, thanks to WikiLeaks, everyone knows she has been lying, too:

Everyone knows that Clinton says one thing publicly about issues like fracking, open trade and open borders, and another thing privately.
“You need both a public and private position,” she said … privately.

For Trump supporters, the biggest problem facing the nation is a federal government rigged by the insiders for the insiders … not sexually predatory behavior.

Hillary Clinton is Her Own Worst Enemy

Here are excerpts from Michael Moore’s 5 REASONS WHY TRUMP WILL WIN that make the case that Hillary Clinton is her own worst enemy:

“Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary.”
“She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected.”
“Young women are among her biggest detractors.”
“Not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her.”
No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8^th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm just isn’t there.”

That’s the bottom line: the enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton just wasn’t there. It’s because everyone knows that she is the consummate insider who rigged the system for personal financial gain and for the benefit of her insider friends around the nation … all the while neglecting “what we used to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats…”

When thinking about the firebombing in Hillsborough, consider just how stupid it was for someone to risk many years in jail just to make a political statement. Well, electing Donald Trump president may be stupid and risky, but that’s the degree of anger the voters have that Michael Moore is talking about when he said to Chuck Todd, “They see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”

– End –

Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report

John Davis

Gov. McCrory Pulls Ahead After Post Hurricane Job Approval Shifts to Net Positive for First Time Since July 2013

by johndavis, October 24, 2016

Gov. McCrory Pulls Ahead After Post Hurricane Job Approval Shifts to Net Positive for First Time Since July 2013 “State response has been top-notch.” Wilmington Star-News New poll results released Monday morning, October 24, 2016, by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic polling firm based in Raleigh, show GOP Governor Pat McCrory’s “Job Approval” now
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Gov. McCrory Pulls Ahead After Post Hurricane Job Approval Shifts to Net Positive for First Time Since July 2013

“State response has been top-notch.” Wilmington Star-News

New poll results released Monday morning, October 24, 2016, by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic polling firm based in Raleigh, show GOP Governor Pat McCrory’s “Job Approval” now more positive (45%) than negative (43%) for the first time since July 2013. “We’d found Pat McCrory with a negative approval rating every single month since July 2013 until now,” said Tom Jensen, Director, Public Policy Polling.

Jensen attributed McCrory’s turnabout in favorable job approval to his handling of Hurricane Matthew. “There’s little that’s better for a Governor’s approval ratings than a Hurricane that voters perceive them to have handled well,” said Jensen.

No sooner than the ink was dry on the two paragraphs above, when another poll was released Monday morning, October 24, 2016, this one from Monmouth, showing Governor McCrory ahead of his Democratic rival, Attorney General Roy Cooper, by 48% to 47%.

Even though the PPP survey shows McCrory two points behind Cooper, the results add to mounting evidence that North Carolina’s embattled governor is enjoying the makings of a “Carolina Comeback.” Being behind two points is a far cry from where McCrory was in August, 2016, when all four statewide polls had Cooper ahead by an average of 6 points.

Cooper’s August 2016, 6-point polling advantage declined by only 1 point in September and early October, when 11 statewide polls showed McCrory continuing to run behind by an average of 5 points (See Real Clear Politics for all 2016 polls).

The came Hurricane Matthew.

There have been six statewide polls since the storm hit, with four showing Cooper ahead by an average of only 1.5 points, including the October 24, PPP survey, and two showing McCrory ahead by an average of 1.5 points, including the October 24, Monmouth survey.

As Tom Jensen noted in the PPP analysis, “This race looks more competitive now than it did a month ago when McCrory’s greatest public visibility was coming due to HB2 rather than the natural disaster.”

An example of the favorable commentary regarding McCrory’s handling of Hurricane Matthew seen around the state is the October 21, 2016 Wilmington Star-News Editorial titled, McCrory at best in hurricane response. It includes many accolades like, “Gov. Pat McCrory, his staff, agencies and thousands of state workers deserve credit for a job well done.”

Other accolades in the editorial include, “the state response has been top-notch,” and, “We were impressed that Gov. McCrory and his staff put emergency procedures into motion as soon as forecasters determined we likely were in harm’s way.”

The Wilmington Star-News editorial concluded this way:

“For our money, we like the McCrory we’ve seen at work the past few weeks, leading from the front and working with people of all stripes to help solve problems.

That is the McCrory, we believe, many people voted for.”

With two weeks to go before the final votes are tallied, Governor Pat McCrory’s prospects for a second term are improving with each and every poll.

– END –

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John N. Davis

Need a Political Speaker for 2017? If you would like a sensible summary of the results of the 2016 federal and state elections, go here to check John Davis’ availability.

Highlights of 2017 Speech: John Davis’ 2017 speech will include an analysis of the good, the bad and the ugly in what NC Republicans and Democrats did in 2016.

Davis will also draw conclusions about the implications of the 2016 results for your organization, as well as, the implications of the results for the 2018 and 2020 state and federal elections.

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Two New Polls Show NC Gov. McCrory Within 1 Point of Atty. General Cooper Leading Up to Final Debate Tonight on WRAL

by johndavis, October 18, 2016

Two New Polls Show NC Gov. McCrory Within 1 Point of Atty. General Cooper Leading Up to Final Debate Tonight on WRAL Economic Impact of HB2 Only 0.1% of State GDP Be sure to tune in for the final gubernatorial debate tonight on WRAL at 7 pm. The debate will include, for the
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Two New Polls Show NC Gov. McCrory Within 1 Point of Atty. General Cooper Leading Up to Final Debate Tonight on WRAL

Economic Impact of HB2 Only 0.1% of State GDP

Be sure to tune in for the final gubernatorial debate tonight on WRAL at 7 pm. The debate will include, for the first time, Libertarian Lon Cecil, who will join Republican Governor Pat McCrory and his Democratic challenger Attorney General Roy Cooper.

WRAL posted a thoughtful list of seven contentions issues, like the coal ash spill and HB2, about which we can expect a political fireworks display. WRAL also posted valuable information on September 21, 2016 on the economic impact of HB2 in a post titled, Cancellation over HB2 make headlines but barely dent NC economy.

WRAL reported that although the financial losses of the legislation totaled $505 million, that was only 0.1% of the state’s $510 billion GDP. Perhaps the minimal economic impact of the controversial LGBT-friendly legislation explains why two new statewide polls of likely voters show a positive trend in Governor Pat McCrory’s race for a second term.

According to a new CNN/ORC poll of likely voters in North Carolina, conducted October 10-15, 2016, North Carolina’s embattled Republican governor has clawed his way back to within one point of his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Roy Cooper, after trailing in almost all statewide voter opinion surveys throughout the election year.

Among likely voters, Cooper leads McCrory by 49% to 48%. That is a major shift in McCrory’s favor since the August CNN/ORC poll, in which McCrory trailed Cooper by six points (Cooper 52%; McCrory 46%).

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted October 10-12, 2016 also found Gov. Pat McCrory with 48% of likely voters, while challenger Roy Cooper received 49%.

The source of Governor McCrory’s favorable shift among voters can be seen by comparing the CNN/ORC poll results for October to the August survey. Included among the groups who now see McCrory in a more favorable light are Independent voters. Independent voters, who now favor McCrory by 51% to 44%, favored Cooper in the August survey by 50% to 48%.

Expect tonight’s debate to be combative, as both major party candidates are likely prepared for a momentum changing zinger or two.

– END –

Thanks for reading JDPR TrendLines

John N. Davis

Need a Political Speaker? If you would like a sensible summary of the status of federal and state elections, go here to check John Davis’ availability.

Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report and JDPR TrendLines here.

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Trump is a Molotov Cocktail Voters Plan to Throw at a U.S. Government Rigged by Insiders for Insiders

by johndavis, October 17, 2016

Trump is a Molotov Cocktail Voters Plan to Throw at a U.S. Government Rigged by Insiders for Insiders October 17, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 11 3:13 pm Why Michael Moore Told Meet the Press that Trump Will Win Sunday morning, while reading the news of the firebombing of the Republican Party Headquarters in
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Trump is a Molotov Cocktail Voters Plan to Throw at a U.S. Government Rigged by Insiders for Insiders

October 17, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 11 3:13 pm

Why Michael Moore Told Meet the Press that Trump Will Win

Sunday morning, while reading the news of the firebombing of the Republican Party Headquarters in Orange County, I remembered that Michael Moore, the documentary film maker from Flint, Michigan, told Chuck Todd on Meet the Press, Sunday, October 2, 2016, that Donald Trump was a “human Molotov Cocktail” that on Election Day angry voters were going to “throw into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”

Michael Moore, second only to Hillary Clinton as the Democrat Republicans despise the most, thinks Donald Trump will win the presidency for the same reason the British middle class voted to leave the European Union in the June 23, 2016 Brexit decision. Here is Moore’s pitch:

“From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we used to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats…”

Those are the voters that Moore is talking about when he said to Chuck Todd, “They see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”

The person who threw the Molotov Cocktail through the window at the GOP headquarters in Hillsborough over the weekend and painted “Nazi Republicans leave town or else,” was so angry at Republicans that he or she was willing to risk getting caught and going to jail.

That’s analogous to just how angry the Donald Trump voters are.

Read Michael Moore’s 5 REASONS WHY TRUMP WILL WIN. Admonishing Democrats for assuming that they have insurmountable advantages with demographic trends and the Electoral College map, Moore says, “If you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut.”

Why the Access Hollywood Tapes are Not Destroying Trump

Donald Trump is in bigger trouble than ever with voters because of evidence proving a history of predatory sexual behavior. From the Access Hollywood tape of lewd comments to interviews with numerous victims, most everyone believes it’s true.

As if his behavior is not bad enough, now Trump is digging himself into an even deeper hole by refusing to accept responsibility for his behavior and by claiming that his accusers are lying.

Most everyone believes it’s Trump who is lying.

So why, in light of Donald Trump’s lying about his lifelong history of sexually predatory behavior and lewd comments that objectify women, why does the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, released Sunday, October 16, 2016, show Clinton with a national lead among likely voters within the margin of error: Clinton 47%; Trump 43%; Johnson 5%; Stein 2%?

Why does the new CNN/ORC North Carolina poll, released at noon today, show Donald Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by only 1 point (Clinton 48%; Trump 47%) despite the Access Hollywood scandal.

Clinton leads Trump in every category in today’s CNN/ORC poll except two: economy and honesty/trustworthy. What is most important to Trump voters? The economy and a leader who can be trusted to take on a rigged federal establishment.

Here in North Carolina, all four polls conducted since the Access Hollywood tape of Trump’s lewd comments show the same margin-of-error lead for Clinton:

NBC News/WSJ Poll 9/10-12: Clinton 45%; Trump 41%; Johnson 9%
Suffolk Univ Poll 10/10-12: Clinton 45%; Trump 43%; Johnson 5%
Emerson College Poll 10/10-12: Clinton 46%; Trump 42%; Johnson 5%
CNN/ORC 10/10-15: Clinton 48%; Trump 47%; Johnson 4%

Donald Trump is still in the running nationally and here in North Carolina because his voters see a federal government rigged by insiders in Washington, DC for the advantage of the privileged few, and the ideological left, as a bigger problem than sexually predatory behavior and lewd comments that objectify women.

In the Suffolk University poll conducted October 10-12 in North Carolina, only 13.6% of likely voters said the Access Hollywood tape changed their opinion in the presidential race.