November 4, 2014 Election Results a GOP Wave; Final Polls Tell North Carolina U.S. Senate Story November 5, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 28 7:13 am Bottom Line: Big night for Republicans in the state and nation, with the driving force in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race being the fact that more voters were concerned
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November 4, 2014 Election Results a GOP Wave; Final Polls Tell North Carolina U.S. Senate Story
November 5, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 28 7:13 am
Bottom Line: Big night for Republicans in the state and nation, with the driving force in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race being the fact that more voters were concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than were concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.
- North Carolina Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis defeated North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan by 48,501 votes out of a midterm election record turnout of 2,891,363 voters. He will serve in a solid 53-seat Republican majority in the U.S Senate, likely headed by Mitch McConnell, the current Senate Minority Leader.
- Tillis won despite $35,569,285 spent by outside groups on attack ads against him, the most spent against any U.S. Senate candidate in the country in the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country, with $111 million accounted for as of Election Day.
- Hagan raised $22,945,496 to Tillis’ $9,055,347.
- North Carolina’s 13-member delegation to the US House of Representatives will have 10 Republicans and three Democrats. All incumbents won easily, as did newcomers Alma Adams, a Democrat in Democrat Mel Watt’s seat, and David Rouzer, a Republican in Democrat Mike McIntyre’s seat (the one-seat pick up for the GOP). US House 250 Republicans; 185 Democrats.
- North Carolina’s 50-member Senate will have a 34-member Republican super majority, a gain of one, with Democrat Gene McLaurin losing to challenger Tom McInnis. All incumbent Senate Republicans won reelection, and all Open GOP seats were won by Republicans. There will be a 16-member Democratic minority in the state Senate.
- North Carolina’s 120-member House will have 74 Republicans and 46 Democrats. Both chambers maintained their Republican super majorities.
- North Carolina’s 7-member Supreme Court will be led by Chief Justice Mark Martin, a Republican, who will preside over a 4-3 Republican majority. Sam Ervin, a Democrat, defeated Republican Bob Hunter. Justices Robin Hudson and Cheri Beasley, both Democrats, fended off strong Republican challenges.
- North Carolina’s 15-member Court of Appeals will have a Republican majority thanks to former Judge John Tyson’s victory in the 19-candidate race for Democrat Chief Judge John Martin’s seat. Lucy Inman, a Democrat, is the other newcomer to the court (Democrat Bob Hunter is retiring). Judge Mark Davis, a Democrat, won another term handily. Republican Judge Donna Stroud ran unopposed.
Hagan too close to Obama was worse than Tillis being too conservative
Real Clear Politics average on November 3, election eve, showed Hagan up by only 1 point (44.1% to Tillis’ 43%), with the polling average trending to Tillis’ favor. There were two new polls added to the North Carolina mix on the Real Clear Politics site before Election Day: Fox News 10/28-10/31; CNN 10/27-10/30. The Fox poll showed Hagan up by one point (Hagan 43%; Tillis 42%). The CNN poll shows Hagan up by two points (48%/46%).
The new Fox News poll showed that Tillis supporters who were “certain” about their vote had gone up 11 points since mid-September to 92% (up from 81%); Hagan’s “certain” supporters is 88%, up 7 points since mid-September. That suggests to me that conservative hardliners who backed someone else in the GOP primary had gotten over their reluctance to support Tillis.
Another significant comparison is the question, “Is Tillis too conservative” (35%), as compared to the question, “Does Hagan agree with Obama too much” (48%). More voters are concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than are concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.
Select results of the “Does Hagan agree with Obama too much” question by demographics:
- Independent voters: 50% say Too much with Obama; 29% say About right.
- Women voters: 44% say Too much with Obama; 40% say About right.
- White voters: 57% say Too much with Obama; 29% say About right.
Select results of the “Is Tillis too conservative” question by demographics:
- Independent voters are split (34% Tillis is Too conservative; 32% About right)
- Women voters (36% Tillis is Too conservative; 34% About right)
- White voters (33% Tillis is Too conservative; 45% About right)
The new CNN poll showed each candidates’ voter strongholds by gender & white voters:
- Tillis up 12 points among Men (53%/41%)
- Hagan up 16 points among Women (55%/39%)
- Tillis up 26 points among White voters (60%/34%)
- Tillis up 40 points among White men (67%/27%)
- Tillis up 9 points among White women (51%/42%)
Other findings from the CNN survey that clarify each candidates’ greatest potential:
- Hagan up 22 points among Urban voters (59%/37%)
- Tillis up 6 points among Suburban voters; 5 points among Rural voters
- Hagan up 42 points among Moderates (67%/25%)
- Tillis up 59 points among Conservatives (77%/18%)
- Tillis up 3 points among Independent voters (45%/42%)
In the final analysis, more voters were concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than those who were concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.
I am honored that you read my report.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report 
John N. Davis
Democrats’ $32 Million Attack Backfires in North Carolina, Aiding Tillis’ Rise and Abetting Hagan’s Fall October 29, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 27 8:13 am Tillis Tops List as Most Attacked U.S. Senate Candidate: Recent national news stories have reported that North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic U.S. Senator Kay Hagan and Republican
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Democrats’ $32 Million Attack Backfires in North Carolina, Aiding Tillis’ Rise and Abetting Hagan’s Fall
October 29, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 27 8:13 am
Tillis Tops List as Most Attacked U.S. Senate Candidate: Recent national news stories have reported that North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic U.S. Senator Kay Hagan and Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House Thom Tillis is likely to top the list of the most expensive U.S. Senate races in 2014, with spending in excess of $100 million.
Two-thirds of that $100 million is being spent by national independent groups, with 80% going to negative attack ads. A Washington Post analysis of who is “bearing the brunt of all of that negativity” shows that no candidate in America has had more money spent against them on negative ads than Thom Tillis in North Carolina.
A whopping $32 million has been spent on negative attack ads alone against Tillis.
Unfortunately for Hagan and North Carolina Democrats, the negative barrage of TV ads against Tillis has had two unintended consequences: Hagan’s five-point lead is down to zero; Hagan’s job disapproval is up five points.
Democratic Attack Aiding Tillis’ Rise, Abetting Hagan’s Fall
The latest North Carolina polls clearly show that the Democrats’ $32 million attack has backfired, aiding Thom Tillis’ rise in the polls and abetting Hagan’s fall.
The latest NBC News/Marist North Carolina poll, released October 26, shows a tie between Hagan and Tillis at 43% each among likely voters. Here are other key findings:
- Hagan and Tillis are tied at 43% each, down from Hagan’s 44% to 40% in early October.
- Tillis leads Hagan among independents likely to vote.
- Hagan leads among women by 10 points; Tillis among men by 11 points.
- Hagan has a higher negative rating (48% unfavorable) than Tillis (44% unfavorable)
Perhaps the most disconcerting fact for the Hagan camp in the NBC news/Marist North Carolina poll is that education, the #1 topic of attacks against Tillis, is not among the top concerns among North Carolina likely voters in deciding their vote for Congress. The most important concerns are jobs and the economy at 20%, followed by health care (16%) and breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington (15%).
The NBC News/Marist North Carolina results are mirrored in the new High Point University poll released on October 27, 2014. Here are the key findings:
- Hagan in Tillis are tied at 44% each among likely voters.
- Job performance disapproval for Pres. Obama is 55%; Hagan’s job performance disapproval is 52%, and Tillis’ job disapproval is 50%.
- North Carolina likely voters prefer Republicans in congressional races 48% to 43%
Overall, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Hagan’s lead has been cut to +1 point: 43.6% Hagan; 42.6% Tillis. At the beginning of October, before the record-breaking attack on Tillis, Hagan’s Real Clear Politics polling average lead was +4.2%.
Obama’s Disapproval at 56%; Voters want Republicans to Run Country
Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the White House, and this one has lousy job approval numbers on the year’s most important issues like the economy and the threat of ISIS.
In the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted October 23-26, seven in 10 Americans have a negative view of the economy and see the country on the wrong track.
- Six in 10 have little or no trust in the federal government to do what’s right.
- 63% of likely voters think government’s ability to solve problems has gotten worse.
- Obama’s job approval is 43%; disapproval among likely voters is 56%.
- There is a 42% to 37% advantage to Republicans for handling the country’s problems.
Midterm elections are also years in which turnout plummets among the traditional Democratic constituencies like African-Americans, young voters and single women. The results of the new ABC news/Washington Post poll indicate a likelihood that this dynamic will continue.
- Although women prefer Democratic congressional candidates by 5-points, men prefer Republican congressional candidates by 17 points.
- Democrats always enjoy a substantial lead among college educated white women. This year, according to the ABC news/Washington Post survey, they are only running even.
- Democrats are losing 57% of white women who lack a college degree.
- Democrats are losing 66% of white men.
The ABC news/Washington Post survey also shows that Republican congressional candidates are preferred among independent voters by 17 points. That’s huge. Although Democrats have a 12-point advantage among moderates, Republicans have a 61 point advantage among conservatives, “who rival moderates in their share of likely voters.”
As to campaign spending, it appears that when all is said and done both camps will have spent a roughly equal amount of the $100+ million invested in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, with two thirds coming from outside independent sources.
As to the ground game, North Carolina Republicans claim to have reached the level of proficiency that gave the Democrats the winning edge in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. If that is true, they will neutralize the Democrats operational advantage and will win most of the close races … including the U.S. Senate race.
We will not know until next Tuesday night whether the North Carolina GOP and their allies like Americans for Prosperity have matched the Democrats’ turnout operation. What we do know today is that the $32 million spent by Democrats on negative attack ads against Tillis has cut Hagan’s five-point lead down to zero, and has driven Hagan’s job disapproval up five points.
Clearly, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is trending in Thom Tillis’ favor.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Difficult Week for Democrats as Disaffected Women and Blacks Drive Favorability Down to 1984 Lows October 17, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 26 10:13 am Women and Blacks Down on Democratic Party: According to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted October 9-12, 2014, the Democratic Party has the worst Favorable (39%) to Unfavorable (51%)
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Difficult Week for Democrats as Disaffected Women and Blacks Drive Favorability Down to 1984 Lows
October 17, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 26 10:13 am
Women and Blacks Down on Democratic Party: According to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted October 9-12, 2014, the Democratic Party has the worst Favorable (39%) to Unfavorable (51%) impression among Americans since 1984. What is most surprising, is that the downward spiral is driven by the disaffection of women and Black voters.
- Among African-Americans, the positive image of the Democratic Party has declined by 17 points (82% to 65%) since August
- Among women, the positive image of the Democratic Party has declined by 13 points (from 54% to 41%) since August
Democrats were already struggling against midterm election year odds of low turnout among their most loyal constituencies. Now, a dramatic disaffection of their most loyal constituencies.
As to what is behind the loss of favor for Democratic leadership? According to Gallup, voters simply trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle the most important problems of the day like jobs and the economy, ISIS, foreign affairs, the federal budget deficit, and the way government works. The only top issue voters prefer Democrats to manage is equal pay for women.
Granted, Republicans are also under water with Americans, with only 33% having a favorable impression and 56% having an unfavorable impression. However, polls have consistently shown that they are far more enthusiastic about voting this November. Conversely, an October 9, 2014 analysis by Aaron Blake with the Washington Post shows interest in this election among Democrats lowest since 1998.
Obama’s Job Approval “Lowest Ever” Per Washington Post/ABC News
The Washington Post/ABC News poll, conducted October 9-12, shows that Pres. Obama continues to be a drag on vulnerable Democrats:
- Overall approval rating of 40% is the lowest ever
- Among independent voters, Obama’s job approval is only 33%
- Only 29% approve of Obama’s handling of immigration
- 44% approve of his handling of the economy; 51% disapprove
- Only 35% approve of Obama’s handling of the Islamic State insurgents
High Point Poll: On Monday, October 13, 2014, the High Point University Poll showed the North Carolina U.S. Senate race tied among likely voters at 40% each. As with national polls, Obama’s job approval in North Carolina is under water. Senator Hagan’s is even worse:
- Kay Hagan’s job approval was 35%; 54% disapprove (19 points underwater)
- Obama’s job approval was 40%; 55% disapprove (15 points underwater)
- Thom Tillis’ job approval was 32%; 46% disapprove (14 points underwater)
Turnout Implications of Recent North Carolina Federal Court Decisions
Same-Sex Marriage: The political value for Thom Tillis of last week’s federal judicial ruling legalizing same-sex marriage in North Carolina, and this week’s federal judicial ruling giving him and NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger the right to intervene in an appeal, is best understood in the context of how important religion is in the Old North State.
According to Gallup’s analysis of how voters in each state compare to other states on issues like politics, the economy and religion, North Carolina has the 9th highest “Very Religious” population in the nation at 49.5%, well above the national average of 41.4%. That means:
- Same-sex court rulings have galvanized social conservatives behind Thom Tillis
- Rulings are likely to drive up turnout among conservatives offended by same-sex weddings, and by those threatened by the power of one federal judge, appointed by President Obama, to overturn a state constitutional amendment
GOP Elections Law: The political value for Thom Tillis of last week’s 7-2 U.S. Supreme Court decision allowing the new Republican-crafted elections law is as follows:
- 7-2 ruling defuses the explosive argument that GOP is dragging the state back to the Jim Crow era, as two liberal Justices joined in ruling against the Moral Monday argument
- 7-2 ruling deflates the momentum created by Moral Monday over GOP elections law
- 7-2 ruling means no straight-party voting, likely to hurt Democrats more than the GOP
Conclusion: The daily news during the week of October 13-17, 2014, has been so consistently negative for Democrats that it just may cause the political momentum to shift to the Republicans for the remainder of the campaign. The apparent momentum shift is why the National Senatorial Campaign Committee has invested an additional $6 million in North Carolina on Tillis’ behalf.
Due to midterm election year turnout history, there is high likelihood for low turnout among critical Democratic constituencies like African-Americans, young voters and single women. If the disaffection among African-Americans and women for the Democratic Party, as seen in the Washington Post/ABC News Poll, continues through Election Day, that trend plus the recent federal court decisions on same-sex marriage and GOP elections law reforms will all come together to make a good year for North Carolina Republicans at all levels … and Tillis will win.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Make No Mistake, Hagan Hampered by President; GOP Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends Favor Tillis October 8, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 25 5:13 pm “Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot,” said President Obama last Thursday, October 2, during a speech at Northwestern University in defense of his administration, “Every single one
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Make No Mistake, Hagan Hampered by President; GOP Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends Favor Tillis
October 8, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 25 5:13 pm
“Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot,” said President Obama last Thursday, October 2, during a speech at Northwestern University in defense of his administration, “Every single one of them,” he added emphatically.
Democrats cringed all across America. Cringed because they know midterm elections trend against the party in the White House; because they know midterm elections are a referendum on the president. They know this president’s job approval is underwater. Real Clear Politics Oct 8:
- Obama’s overall job approval is 43%; disapprove 53%
- Obama’s job approval on the economy is 41%; disapprove 55.1%
- Obama’s job approval on foreign policy is 37.3%; disapprove 56%
North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan has spent her entire campaign staging a distraction from her association with Obama and federal problems that have festered on their watch, deflecting attention to state problems that have festered on Tillis’ watch. Then President Obama’s speech at Northwestern University last Thursday. “Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot.”
“Every single one of them.” Collective cringe among Hagan Democrats.
Here in North Carolina, President Obama’s job approval is 41.4%, with 52.6% of likely voters disapproving, according to a new Suffolk University/USA Today statewide survey. Hagan’s job approval is also under water: 42.4% approve; 46.6% disapprove.
Fortunately for Hagan, her Republican opponent, Thom Tillis, has lousy numbers when it comes to Favorable/Unfavorable voter opinions. Tillis is seen favorably by 37.8% in the Suffolk University/USA Today survey conducted Oct. 4-7; 44% see him unfavorably.
However, Hagan is seen more unfavorably than Tillis (47% unfavorable); but has a higher favorable perception: 42.2% to his 37.8%.
As for Obama, 53.4% of likely North Carolina voters see him unfavorably; 44.4% favorably. Now you know what’s behind the Tom Tillis mantra: Hagan voted with Obama 95% of the time.
Gallup: Republicans have Major Advantage on Motivation/Enthusiasm
Not only are midterm elections a referendum on the president, who happens to be an unpopular Democrat in 2014, midterm elections also disfavor turnout among traditional Democratic constituencies like African-Americans, single women and young voters. They simply lack presidential year fervor. They stay home in droves.
Today, October 8, 2014, Gallup came out with a new study showing Republicans with a +12-point advantage among voters who have given either “quite a lot or some” thought to the elections this fall. Other indicators friendly to Republicans in 2014, from today’s Gallup study:
- Republicans have a +19-point advantage among voters “Extremely” motivated to vote.
- Republicans have a +18-point advantage among voters. “More enthusiastic” about voting
Republicans on Track to Neutralize the Democrats’ Ground Game
If there is a game changer in the 2014 general election it is likely to be a superior GOP ground game that neutralizes the digital voter communications and turnout advantage Democrats established in 2008 and 2012. That potential is the result of an early commitment by the RNC to an in-house tech incubator called Para Bellum Labs, complete with 50 geeks and the best hardware and software money can buy, along with the allied support of organizations like Americans for Prosperity, who have committed tens of millions of dollars just to a ground game in 2014.
Of course, the Democrats are not ignoring the opportunity in 2014 to keep their digital advantage. They are operating under an umbrella called Project Ivy, scaling the highly successful Obama data-mining, contact and turnout operation to campaigns like North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race. And, there are many allied groups from unions to Planned Parenthood spending tens of millions of dollars to turn out African-Americans, single women and young voters.
Never doubt the ability of Democrats to turn out their voters in 2014.
Never doubt the ability of Republicans to match or surpass the Democrats’ turnout in 2014.
Further complicating turnout for Democrats is the fact that all of the most politically significant new Republican election laws have been upheld by state and federal courts. Limited early voting days, voter IDs and no straight-party voting are still on the books all over America.
So, with a combination of midterm election year trends more negative to Democrats, low job approval numbers for the Democratic president and Democratic Senator Hagan, an anemic interest in the election this fall among rank and file Democrats, and courts consistently upholding new Republican election law changes, you can see why Hagan’s lead has slipped to only 2 points in the Suffolk University/USA Today poll, and why Thom Tillis is on track to win the senate race.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
UPDATE JANUARY 10, 2014 REPORT: North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan September 25, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 24 3:13 pm This is an update of my January 10, 2014 report titled, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to
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UPDATE JANUARY 10, 2014 REPORT:
North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan
September 25, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 24 3:13 pm
This is an update of my January 10, 2014 report titled, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan.
From the January 10 report:
- No North Carolina Democrat has won a second term in the U.S. Senate since 1968
- Midterm elections do not favor the party in the White House, Democrats
- The NC Democratic Party is in shambles; the GOP has power and strong leaders
- Both candidates are equally smart, competitive and capable of raising money
- Polls show the race virtually tied with Hagan at 44% and Tillis at 42%
- For every “extreme right” attack ad that Hagan or her super PACs run against Tillis, he and his super PACs can counter with equally damaging “extreme left” attack ads
- Hagan will be on the defense throughout 2014 for telling PolitiFact’s 2013 Lie of the Year, “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it.”
On Monday, September 22, 2014, the latest statewide poll of likely voters, released by High Point University, showed the race where it was in January, virtually tied with Hagan at 42% and Tillis at 40% (6% for Libertarian Sean Haugh; 12% Undecided or won’t say).
Key Question: So why is Kay Hagan struggling to seize a commanding lead in the race with Tillis despite a year-long fundraising and spending advantage? Because by an overwhelming margin, likely North Carolina voters disapprove of the job she and President Obama are doing.
- President Barack Obama’s Job Approval is 38%; Disapprove 57%
- Senator Kay Hagan’s Job Approval is 39%; Disapprove 50%
Historically, midterm elections are a referendum on the White House. With North Carolina voters having such low regard for the White House, ads saying “Hagan votes with the President 95% of the time” are keeping her disapproval numbers high and her potential for victory low.
Ultimately, this race will end in a tie with turnout operations determining the winner.
Reasons Why Turnout Likely to Favor a Tillis Upset Win
I am persuaded that this fall Republicans will neutralize the historic digital voter contact and turnout advantage that Democrats established in 2008 and refined in 2012. That development, along with new election laws and midterm election year trends, favors a Tillis upset win.
MIDTERM TURNOUT: Since 1992, the average midterm election year turnout is about 22 points lower than presidential election years. In 2008, statewide turnout in the North Carolina General Election was 70%. In 2010, statewide General Election turnout was 43.8%.
As pointed out in the January 10 report, turnout in midterm elections drops most significantly among Democratic constituencies like African Americans, single women, and young people.
EARLY VOTING TURNOUT: When you take a look at the early voting turnout in 2008, the presidential election year in which Hagan won, as compared to the 2010 midterm election year, you can readily see that Hagan’s biggest challenge is yet to come.
- In 2008, when Hagan won, 48% of all registered Democrats voted early; 52% of all registered African-American voters voted early
- In 2010, a midterm election year, only 16.1% of all registered Democrats voted early; only 14.9% of all registered African-Americans voted early
STRAIGHT PARTY VOTERS: You see a similar shift in the partisan advantage of straight party voters from presidential election years to midterm election years.
- In 2008, 1,283,486. Democrats voted straight party; 59% of all straight party voters
- In 2010, 599,985, Democrats voted straight party; 51% of all straight party voters
NEW ELECTION LAWS: The elimination of straight party voting is one of the new election laws passed by the Republican General Assembly scheduled to take effect this fall. Today, September 25, 2014, a three-judge federal panel is convening in Charlotte to hear arguments on whether enforcement of the new election laws should be delayed.
If the three-judge panel rules next week that the new election laws can stand, Democrats will face an even tougher turnout challenge. Under the new rules, early voting days are reduced from 17 to 10. There will be no same-day registrations and no straight party voting.
TURNOUT OPERATIONS: In 2012, the Obama camp in Chicago invested $100 million during the 18 months before Election Day in a digital voter contact and turnout operation called Narwhal. They defied the odds and turned out African-Americans and young voters in key swing states in numbers even higher than their historic 2008 accomplishments. That’s why Obama won.
Meanwhile, in Boston, the Romney camp invested an inadequate amount of resources in a digital voter contact and turnout operation called Orca. Orca crashed on Election Day.
Following the loss of the presidential race of 2012, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus directed a self-assessment that became a scathing critique titled the Growth & Opportunity Project. Republicans were their own worst critics on matters like communications with minorities and women and mobilizing voters through digital communications. They were determined to improve.
Democrats laughed at Republicans for admitting their weaknesses in their communication with women and minorities. If my January 10 conclusions are on target, and if Republicans do neutralize the Democrats’ digital voter turnout advantage, then Democrats won’t be laughing on Election Day.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
Intimidation by U.S. Senate Democratic Leaders Weakened by Pundits Predicting GOP Majority September 10, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 23 7:13 am Nothing chills political fundraising more than the intimidating word from the majority party leadership that anyone who supports a certain candidate can forget the majority party’s support when they need help with
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Intimidation by U.S. Senate Democratic Leaders Weakened by Pundits Predicting GOP Majority
September 10, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 23 7:13 am
Nothing chills political fundraising more than the intimidating word from the majority party leadership that anyone who supports a certain candidate can forget the majority party’s support when they need help with their legislation.
You can rest assured that Democrat U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has put the word out to the political investor crowd that anyone backing North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis against North Carolina Democrat Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race can forget his support.
However, with most of the major national pundits saying that the next U.S. Senate Majority Leader is more likely to be a Republican, Sen. Harry Reid’s intimidation is greatly weakened.
Further, you can count on likely Republican U.S. Senate leaders to put the word out that in 2015, the GOP majority leadership will remember only those who supported Thom Tillis in 2014.
Here is what the leading pundits are saying:
NATE SILVER: FiveThirtyEight 9/9 forecast model gives Republicans a 62.2% odds of winning the U.S. Senate majority.
NY TIMES UPSHOT: GOP has 59% odds of winning U.S. Senate majority (9/9/2014)
STU ROTHENBERG: “I am now [9/9] expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.” “But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.”
Hagan-Tillis U.S Senate: a 26-point Gender Gap
On November 4, 2008, CNN Exit Polls showed Kay Hagan winning women 55% to 41% (+14), and Elizabeth Dole winning among men 50% to 47% (+3), creating a 17-point gender gap. The latest public opinion polls show Hagan with a +12 points among women, down a bit from 2008; Thom Tillis is up among men by +14 points, 11% higher than Dole’s vote among male voters.
Polls continue to show North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race neck and neck.
- Real Clear Politics’ running average of all polls: Tillis 43.3%; Hagan 42.5%
- New York Times/CBS News tracking poll from August 18 to September 2 shows Tillis with a slight lead: 41% to 39%
- Hagan beats Tillis among women 43% to 31% (+12); Tillis wins men 50% to 36% (+14)
KEY POINTS:
- Hagan’s +12 among women and Tillis’ +14 among men creates a 26-point gender gap
- In 2012, the 20-point national gender gap in the race between Pres. Obama and Mitt Romney was the highest Gallup has measured in a presidential election since 1952
- As of 9/6, there are 3,523,078 women registered to vote in NC; 2,960,583 men
- Hagan will exploit the gender gap and registration advantage women have in North Carolina by making gender-sensitive issues front and center in her campaign
President’s Job Approval a Drag on Democrats
According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted September 4-7, 52% of Americans see the Obama presidency as a failure, with 42% saying it is a success.
- Obama’s job approval is 42%, 1% above his all-time low
- Obama’s Job Approval among blacks is 87%; among Hispanics 57%; among whites 31%
- 55% say Obama has done more to divide the country; 38% say more to unite
KEY POINTS:
- As midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, the negative perception of this White House makes Obama a drag on Kay Hagan in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race
- Obama’s job approval is highest among those least likely to turn out in mid-term elections (minorities, young voters, single women); lowest among those most likely to vote.
Nationally, there is consensus that Republicans are on track to win the majority in the U.S. Senate. That reduces U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s ability to intimidate would-be Tillis contributors, and strengthens the influence of potential U.S. Senate Republican leaders.
Here in North Carolina, the winner of the Hagan-Tillis U.S. Senate race comes down to whether the GOP has improved its digital data mining and voter turnout ground game enough to neutralize the potential Democrats have of using their proven ability to drive up turnout of those least likely to vote.
Republicans have known since 2012 that they were outsmarted by the Democrats with digital voter contact and turnout operations. North Carolina’s partisan political fortunes in 2014 come down to whether the GOP allows the Democrats to outsmart them again.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
GWU Bipartisan Battleground Poll Confirms GOP-Friendly Trends in Fall U.S. Senate Races September 3, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 22 2:13 pm All political pollsters agree that the response of voters to the question, “If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democrat for Congress?” … also known
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GWU Bipartisan Battleground Poll Confirms GOP-Friendly Trends in Fall U.S. Senate Races
September 3, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 22 2:13 pm
All political pollsters agree that the response of voters to the question, “If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democrat for Congress?” … also known as the Generic Congressional Ballot question … is one of the best predictors of which party has an advantage during any given election year.
According to the new bipartisan-led national George Washington University Battleground Poll, the GOP has a 4-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot at the fall 2014 starting gate.
- GOP has a 16-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot in the states where there is a competitive U.S. Senate race (like North Carolina)
- Independent voters are trending GOP 41% to 26% Democratic; 33% undecided
- Republicans lead among Middle-Class voters by 11 points
- GOP has a 12-point lead among those “extremely likely to vote” (51% to 39%)
- 69% of Republicans are “extremely likely to vote;” 57% of Democrats
Over the last twenty years, the GWU Battleground Poll has become one of the country’s most reliable public opinion surveys. The new GWU Battleground Poll, released today, September 3, was led by GOP pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. “Likely Voters” were surveyed from Aug 24 through Aug 28.
Economic issues driving country on Wrong Track to 70%
Among likely voters, 70% say the country is on the wrong track; most say that President Obama is responsible. That does not bode well for Democratic U.S. Senate candidates like North Carolina’s Kay Hagan, who is fending off the fact that she votes with Obama 95% of the time.
- 70% of voters feel the country has gotten off on the Wrong Track (Republicans 92%, Independents 70%, and Democrats 47%)
- Economy is the #1 issue driving voters to the polls this fall (including Independents, African-Americans and Latinos voters)
- 55% of voters Disapprove of Obama’s handling of the Economy; 44% Approve
- #1 reason the country is on Wrong Track: Issues with Obama’s lack of leadership
- Disapproval of the job President Obama is doing is high regarding his handling of the Federal Budget and Spending (61% disapprove), of Foreign Policy (58% disapprove), of Immigration (57% disapprove), on Working with Congress (57% disapprove)
Voters have more confidence in the GOP on the top issues
- GOP has a 7-point lead on confidence to deal with The Economy (49% to 42%); a 13-point lead on confidence to deal with the Federal Budget and Spending (51% to 38%); a 6-point lead on Taxes (48% to 42%); a 7-point lead on Immigration (48% to 41%); a 10-point lead on Foreign Policy (50% to 42%)
- Although Obama had solid leads “on confidence to deal with” Social Security (47% to 41%), Medicare (50% to 39%), Standing up for the Middle Class (52% to 37%), and Representing Middle-Class Values (51% to 39%), those are not the top issues in 2014.
Turnout favoring GOP by 12 points among most likely voters
- GOP has a 12-point lead among those “extremely likely to vote”
- 69% of Republicans are “extremely likely to vote;” 57% of Democrats
- Although Democrats lead among single women, younger voters and African Americans, their challenge in 2014 is overcoming the lack of enthusiasm among their base
- Only 49% of 18 to 29-year-olds and 48% of single women are “extremely likely to vote”
Midterm election years are a referendum on the White House
If you research the political adage, Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, since 1910, during President Taft’s administration, the party in the White House has lost an average 30 seats in the U.S. House and 4 seats in the U.S. Senate during midterm elections. There has been only one exception during a second term, midterm election year like 2014: President Bill Clinton in 1998 (Democrats won 5 seats in U.S. House; Lost 0 in U.S. Senate).
If 2014 races are a referendum on President Obama, Democrats in battleground states like North Carolina’s Senator Kay Hagan, will likely lose to challengers like Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House. Add the GOP’s enthusiasm for voting this fall documented in today’s GWU Battleground Poll, and you can see the makings of a good year for the GOP.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
NC GOP Winning Battle for New Voters; Favored this Fall over Democrats who are Losing Voters August 28, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 21 9:13 am NC Democrats: Net Gain in 2008 of 171,955 Voters; Net Loss in 2014 There has been a dramatic loss of political momentum among North Carolina Democrats since 2008,
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NC GOP Winning Battle for New Voters; Favored this Fall over Democrats who are Losing Voters
August 28, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 21 9:13 am
NC Democrats: Net Gain in 2008 of 171,955 Voters; Net Loss in 2014
There has been a dramatic loss of political momentum among North Carolina Democrats since 2008, the election year when historic voter registration and turnout accomplishments led to Greensboro Democrat Kay Hagan’s win over Elizabeth Dole for a seat in the U.S. Senate.
From January 1, 2008 through August 30, 2008, North Carolina Democrats registered a net gain of 171,955 new voters. This year, from January 1, 2014 through August 23, 2014, Democrats have suffered a net loss of 4,122 voters.
In 2008, Democrats had all of the power in North Carolina; the Governor, the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President Pro Tem of the Senate. Today, all of those positions are filled by Republicans. Today, the North Carolina Democratic Party has been abandoned by most of its financial backers from the past. Party leaders are in disarray, struggling to regain their footing.
There is so little respect for the North Carolina Democratic Party that the Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee has managed the $1,631,025 statewide turnout operation, with most of the money from the national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Kay Hagan’s political fortunes are certain to be impacted negatively by the loss of standing and resources of the North Carolina Democratic Party. The loss of momentum and enthusiasm this year when compared to 2008 is undeniably devastating.
Unless they can regain their 2008 momentum, Thom Tillis will defeat Kay Hagan this fall.
NC Democrats: Net Gain in 2008 of 171,955 Voters; Net Loss in 2014
As of August 23, 2014, registered voters in North Carolina totaled 6,557,855. Since January 1, 2014, there has been a net increase of 72,999 new voters, most of whom registered Unaffiliated. Democrats continue to lose market share among voters in North Carolina, suffering a net loss of 4,122 voters since January. Republicans have enjoyed a modest gain of 13,095 voters.
Here are the numbers from the State Board of Elections. They reflect the changes in total registered voters from January 1, 2014 through August 23, 2014:
- January 1, 2014, Democratic registrations totaled 2,760,130 (42.6%)
- August 23, 2014, Democrat registrations totaled 2,756,008, for a net loss of 4,122
- January 1, 2014, Republican registrations totaled 1,991,662 (30.7%)
- August 23, 2014, Republican registrations totaled 2,004,757, for a net gain of 13,095
- January 1, 2014, Unaffiliated registrations totaled 1,710,409 (26.4%)
- August 23, 2014, Unaffiliated registrations totaled 1,772,562, for a net gain of 62,153
North Carolina Democrats Barely Beat the GOP in Obama’s Top Counties
The counties where you would expect Democrats to make significant registration gains are the eight counties that gave Pres. Obama half of his total statewide vote in North Carolina in 2012: Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Durham, Forsyth, Cumberland, Buncombe and Orange.
- Democrats gained 5,654 new voters in the eight urban counties that gave Pres. Obama half of his total North Carolina vote in 2012
- Republicans gained 4,075 new votes in those same eight urban counties
- Democrats have registered only 1,579 more new voters than Republicans in the eight counties that gave Pres. Obama half of his total North Carolina vote in 2012
- There are 24,506 new Unaffiliated voters in those same eight counties
You would think that if Wake County is the epicenter of the statewide ground game for Democrats, they would be leading Republicans in new registered voters. Not true.
- Wake County Democrats have added only 1,270 to their January 1 total, bringing them to 260,512 voters as of August 23
- Wake County Republicans have added 1,578 to their January 1 total, bringing them to 187,653 voters as of August 23
- There are 208,518 Unaffiliated voters in Wake County, a gain of 7,162 since January 1
North Carolina Democrats have a Net Loss of Voters in 79 Counties
There is little good news for Democrats in the voter registration statistics since January 1, 2014, but none more devastating than net loss of voters in 79 of 100 counties.
- Democrats have a net loss in total votes in 79 of 100 counties
- Republicans have a net loss in total votes in 25 of 100 counties
- Democrats have a net gain of greater than 100 new voters in only 9 counties
- Republicans have a net gain of greater than 100 new voters in 40 counties
- Democrats have a net gain of greater than 500 new voters in only 3 counties (Mecklenburg, Wake, Durham)
- Republicans have a net gain of greater than 500 new voters in 7 counties (Mecklenburg, Wake, Union, Brunswick, Iredell, Johnston and Onslow)
North Carolina Unaffiliated Voters have a Net Gain in all 100 Counties
The #1 key to Republican political longevity in North Carolina is their ability to craft their brand to appeal to Unaffiliated voters. The #1 key to Democratic political recovery in North Carolina is their ability to craft their brand to appeal to Unaffiliated voters.
- Unaffiliated voters now total 1,772,562 in North Carolina, 27% of total registrations
- Unaffiliated voters have enjoyed a net gain since January in all 100 counties
- While Democrats show a net loss since January and Republicans a modest gain of 13,095 voters, Unaffiliated registrations show a net gain of 62,153
- While Democrats have grown by more than 100 voters in 9 counties and Republicans in 40 counties, Unaffiliated voters have grown by over 100 voters in 84 counties
Gallup Says Democrats have Lost 10-Point Party Advantage Since 2008
More good news for North Carolina Republicans was reported in yesterday’s Gallup study that showed state Democrats have lost the 10 percentage point advantage they enjoyed over Republicans in 2008 (49% t0 39%), the year Kay Hagan won her U.S. Senate seat.
On the turnout front, Gallup also reported yesterday that “Republicans (42%) are much more engaged than Democrats (27%) in the election at this point.”
There has been a dramatic loss of political momentum among North Carolina Democrats since 2008, the election year when historic voter registration and turnout accomplishments led to Greensboro Democrat Kay Hagan’s win over Elizabeth Dole for a seat in the U.S. Senate.
As I pointed out in yesterday’s report, the best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1 focused primarily on urban voters.
As of today, all indicators, especially voter registration results year-to-date, argue that North Carolina Democrats are not structurally capable of beating Republicans in turnout this fall in statewide campaigns. If there is hope for Democrats in 2014, it is the countywide elections in urban counties.
At the Labor Day starting gate, Thom Tillis is still on track to defeat Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race, the General Assembly will remain solidly in the hands of the Republicans, and all Republican candidates running for state government positions are favored in the close elections.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Wake County Democrats May Determine Next U.S. Senate Majority with Hagan Turnout Duties August 27, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 20 3:13 pm Last Friday, August 22, 2014, Wake County was projected to have 1 million residents. That’s good news for Democrats, as urban voters almost always favor them over the GOP. Urban voters tend
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Wake County Democrats May Determine Next U.S. Senate Majority with Hagan Turnout Duties
August 27, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 20 3:13 pm
Last Friday, August 22, 2014, Wake County was projected to have 1 million residents. That’s good news for Democrats, as urban voters almost always favor them over the GOP. Urban voters tend to be more moderate than conservative, more pro-government than anti-government, more independent than partisan; they are more diverse demographically and are more tolerant socially.
By way of illustration, in 2012, although the state was carried by GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney (it was his closest win), President Obama carried most urban counties by wide margins. Wake County voted for Obama 55% to 44%; Mecklenburg County by 61% to 38%; Guilford County 58% to 41%; Durham County 76% to 23%; Forsyth County 53% to 46%; Orange County 70% to 28%; Pitt County 53% to 46%; Buncombe County 56% to 43%; Cumberland County 60% to 40%.
So strong are the urban counties for Democrats in North Carolina, a full half of Pres. Obama’s vote came from only 8 of the state’s 100 counties.
As to the future, Demographic forecasters have concluded that urban growth will continue well into the century, and that most of the growth will be driven by newcomers moving to urban areas. That growth has shifted North Carolina to the center of the partisan advantage scale.
Turnout in urban counties is critical to Kay Hagan and other statewide Democrats in 2014.
Gallup Says Democrats have Lost 10-Point Party Advantage Since 2008
Gallup revealed today, August 27, 2014, in a new report, North Carolina’s Political and Economic Environment in 2014, that “… about as many North Carolinians lean or identify Democratic (42%) as they do Republican (41%).
The good news for Republicans in today’s Gallup study is that Democrats have lost their 10 percentage point advantage over Republicans in 2008 (49% t0 39%), the year Kay Hagan won her U.S. Senate seat. Now you know why the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is investing tens of millions of dollars on TV and turnout in North Carolina.
On Wednesday, August 13, 2013, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched a $9 million TV ad buy attacking Thom Tillis. That investment is their largest of the election cycle. The Senate Majority PAC, directed by Majority Leader Harry Reid, has already invested $7 million on Hagan’s behalf.
The best thing going for Hagan is that women make up well over half of the electorate and women tend to prefer Democrats over Republicans … especially women who are unmarried. The only problem is, unmarried women do not vote in midterm election years. Neither do young people or African-Americans. Midterm election years are historically dominated by older voters who are more conservative, more married and more likely to vote Republican.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s turnout model in 2014 is called the Bannock Street Project. They are spending $60 million in 10 states (including North Carolina) to hire 4000 paid staff to try to solve the turnout problem among women, Latino and African-American voters in midterm election years.
- Democrats are trying to engage single women by running ads that focus on abortion and contraception coverage
- In North Carolina, Democrats are micro-targeting African-Americans, “using the same Voter Activation Network database as Pres. Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign”
According to the Washington Times story, July 6, 2014, Democrats microtarget blacks in South in effort to keep Senate, “the North Carolina NAACP is deploying about 50 organizers across the state for the next 10 weeks.”
The story quotes Hagan campaign spokesman Chris Hayden as saying, “we are building the biggest and most effective turnout organization North Carolina has ever seen in a Senate race.”
But the Democratic Party of North Carolina is in shambles. Who can assume the responsibility of turning out Democrats in 2014, knowing that their success or failure will determine the majority in the U.S. Senate? Ladies and gentlemen, may I introduce the Wake County Democratic Party.
Wake County Democratic Party has Spent $1.56 Million for Hagan Turnout
The best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1. They are clearly on that track, and it’s all being run out of the Wake County Democratic Party.
Since March 2014, the Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee has received $1,631,025, and has spent $1,563,534, almost all on “Office Rent” at 24 county headquarters around the state and “Salary” expenses for over 100 employees.
- Just in the month of July, the Wake County Democrats received $585,487
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee contributed $523,067of the July total
- DSCC has contributed $1,345,559 to Wake County Democrats since March
So what are Wake County Democrats doing with $1,631,025? You can get a good idea by taking a look at the July Disbursements, Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee, which shows what was spent from July 1, 2014 through July 31, 2014.
- “Office Rent” was paid for space in Charlotte, Asheville, Santa Anna California, Cary, Zebulon, Fayetteville, High Point, Greensboro, Sanford, Chapel Hill, Salisbury, Wilmington, Greenville, Gastonia, Conover, Durham, Statesville, Selma, Rocky Mount, Jacksonville, Concord, Southmont, Rutherfordton, Carrboro, Hendersonville
- “Salary” was paid to over 100 employees in July throughout the state
Democratic Party of NC Received only $19,061 from Individuals in 2nd Q
While the Wake County Democratic Party was reporting $585,487 income for July only, the Democratic Party of North Carolina reported $417,848 for the entire 2nd Quarter. Individuals contributed only $19,061 during the 2nd Quarter. All of the top 10 contributors to the state party in the 2nd Quarter are members of the General Assembly:
| Sen. Josh Stein | $57,500 | Year to Date $157,000 |
| Rep. Larry Hall | $50,000 | Year to Date $435,120 |
| Sen. Dan Blue | $50,000 | Year to Date $65,000 |
| Sen. Floyd McKissick | $30,000 | Year to Date $38,000 |
| Rep. Grier Martin | $20,000 | Year to Date $31,750 |
| Rep. Verla Insko | $15,000 | Year to Date $64,650 |
| Rep. Darren Jackson | $15,000 | Year to Date $36,000 |
| Rep. Michael Wray | $10,000 | Year to Date $19,778 |
| Sen. Ben Clark | $7500 | Year to Date $15,000 |
| Rep. Joel Ford | $7500 | Year to Date $12,500 |
Take a look at the complete list of contributors to the Democratic Party of North Carolina and you will see the scant number of Individuals contributing the $19,061 during the 2nd Quarter. Only $225,117 has been contributed by Individuals to the state party the entire election cycle.
In a state like North Carolina, a battleground state where both parties are tied in the number of loyalists, the candidate who wins the ground game wins the election.
On the turnout front, more good news for Republicans from Gallup today … and problematic news for Democrats … in that “Republicans (42%) are much more engaged than Democrats (27%) in the election at this point.”
The best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1 focused primarily on urban voters. They are clearly on that track, and it’s all being run out of the Wake County Democratic Party.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
U.S. President Born Leslie Lynch King, Jr., Sworn in 40 Years Ago, Withstood the Corrupting Influence of Political Power August 8, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 19 12:13 pm Most of the news media coverage of the 40th anniversary of the resignation of President Richard Nixon, tendered at 11:35 a.m. on August 9, 1974, highlights
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U.S. President Born Leslie Lynch King, Jr., Sworn in 40 Years Ago, Withstood the Corrupting Influence of Political Power
August 8, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 19 12:13 pm
Most of the news media coverage of the 40th anniversary of the resignation of President Richard Nixon, tendered at 11:35 a.m. on August 9, 1974, highlights Nixon’s personal weaknesses and moral failings that led to the Watergate Scandal and his downfall. I would like to shift the attention to what happened 30 minutes later at 12:05 p.m., on August 9, 1974, when the 38th President of the United States, born Leslie Lynch King, Jr., was sworn in.
The 38th President of the United States is the only president who was never elected president or vice president. He was chosen because of his personal strengths and moral integrity. In honor of the 40th anniversary of his swearing in, I have selected passages from his autobiography, A Time to Heal, including prayers he and his wife said one week before he became president.
Leslie Lynch King, Jr. was born on July 14, 1913. While an infant, his father’s abusive behavior (beating his mother and threatening both of them with a knife) led to his parents’ divorce.
He was raised in Grand Rapids, Michigan by his mother and stepfather, a paint salesman.
He graduated from the University of Michigan, where he was a star football player on the national championship teams of 1932 and 1933. He washed dishes to help pay for college.
He graduated from Yale University Law School in the top 25% of his class.
On December 3, 1935, at the age of 22, he changed his legal name to honor his stepfather, the paint salesman, to Gerald Rudolff Ford, Jr.
In 1942 – 43, he spent a year at Chapel Hill, North Carolina at the Naval Preflight School.
He married, had four children, and served in the United States Congress as a Republican from Grand Rapids, Michigan for 25 years. He rose to the leadership role of U.S. House Minority Leader.
In December 1973, Congressman Jerry Ford was selected by President Richard M. Nixon to fill Vice President Spiro Agnew’s term after Agnew was forced to resign due to criminal charges related to bribes he accepted while Governor of Maryland.
Eight months later, on August 9, 1974, President Nixon resigned due to the Watergate Scandal.
In his autobiography, A Time to Heal, President Ford shared a profoundly personal moment that occurred in the wee hours of the morning one week before his swearing in; the night he and his wife Betty realized that Nixon may have to resign and that they may be living in the White House.
“It was almost one-thirty and time to go to bed. We entered our bedroom, undressed and snapped off the light. As we lay there in the darkness, our hands reached out and touched simultaneously without either of us having said a word. Then we began to pray.
“God, give us strength, give us wisdom, give us guidance as the possibility of a new life confronts us.
“We promise to do our very best, whatever may take place.
“You have sustained us in the past.
“We have faith in Your guiding hand in the difficult and challenging days ahead.
“In Jesus’ name we pray.”
“I concluded with a prayer from the fifth and sixth verses of chapter 3 of the Book of Proverbs: ‘Trust in the Lord with all thine heart, and lean not unto thine own understanding. In all thy ways acknowledge Him, and He shall direct thy paths.’”
“Fifty years before, I had learned that prayer as a child in Sunday school. I can remember saying it the night I discovered that my stepfather was not my real father. I had repeated it often at sea during World War II. It was something I said whenever a crisis arose.”
The following Wednesday, the day before Nixon resigned, Ford writes in A Time to Heal:
“At eleven-thirty the next morning, I went to the Office of House Minority Leader John Rhodes for our regular Wednesday prayer session with Minnesota Representative Albert Quae and former Wisconsin Representative Melvin Laird. We’d been having these private sessions for some time, and the pattern was always the same. One of us started out with a simple prayer. Then we went around the room with no predetermined sequence. When the last person had finished, we said the Lord’s Prayer in unison.
No one mentioned the political crisis gripping the capital. No one had to. The prayers the others offered were all in my behalf as the potential President. And mine were for their support – and God’s – in meeting the new challenges that I’d face.”
The following day, Thursday, August 8, 1974, President Nixon announced to the nation via a live TV broadcast that he would resign the next day at noon. At 12:05 p.m. the next day, August 9, 1974, Gerald Rudolff Ford, Jr., born Leslie Lynch King, Jr., was sworn in as President of the United States. He ended his 850-word swearing in speech this way:
“My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over… Our Constitution works; our great Republic is a government of laws and not of men. Here the people rule. But there is a higher Power, by whatever name we honor Him, who ordains not only righteousness but love, not only justice but mercy.”
It is important that we remember the cautionary lessons of leaders like Nixon who were corrupted by political power. But, it is far more important that we remember the lessons of leaders like President Ford who showed us that we can choose to lead with personal strengths and moral integrity; that we can lead without being corrupted by political power.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis, Editor