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The $1 Billion Question: Can Obama Carry NC in 2012? The images in the campaign kickoff video disclose strategy

by johndavis, April 6, 2011

[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/April-6-1-Billion-Question.mp3|titles=April 6 Billion Question] “I don’t agree with Obama on everything, but I respect him and I trust him.” “Ed from North Carolina,” featured in President Obama’s re-election kickoff video, Monday, April 4, 2011 Obama’s 2012 Campaign Strategy Disclosed in Video Released Monday Shhhhhhhhhhh.  If you want to get the inside scoop on Obama’s 2012
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“I don’t agree with Obama on everything, but I respect him and I trust him.”

“Ed from North Carolina,” featured in President Obama’s re-election kickoff video, Monday, April 4, 2011

Obama’s 2012 Campaign Strategy Disclosed in Video Released Monday

Shhhhhhhhhhh.  If you want to get the inside scoop on Obama’s 2012 campaign strategy, watch his kickoff video with the sound turned down.  The images say it all:  a farm, a church, a middle-income neighborhood, an American flag, Ed from North Carolina sitting on his front porch saying, “I don’t agree with Obama on everything, but I respect him and I trust him.” And then there are the mountains out West, a Hispanic family in the kitchen of their home, Obama speaking at a 2008 rally, a TV image of Fox News projecting Obama the winner of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, lots of young people attending volunteer meetings, volunteers registering new voters, canvassing door-to-door for support, and making voter turnout calls from a phone bank.

The Obama campaign kickoff video, released Monday, ends with the theme: It begins with us.

Strategically, it looks like the 2008 massive ground game again.  But there’s one thing missing: enthusiastic volunteers.  Barack Obama was one of the most inspirational presidential contenders in U.S. history, especially for the 18-29 year-olds who volunteered by the millions to do the hard work of registering voters; volunteers who turned out record numbers of voters on Election Day.

However, in 2009 we discovered that those enthusiastic Obama voters were not loyal Democrats when their failure to turn out led to the defeat of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey.  Again, in January 2010, a low turnout of Obama voters led to the shocking loss of Ted Kennedy’s seat to Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts, and a devastating “shellacking” of Democrats last fall throughout the country.

So, why are the Obama strategists introducing their 2012 campaign for re-election with a video that suggests another ground game? The answer is in a dollar figure: $1 billion, the fund-raising goal for the 2012 race.  You can buy a whole bunch of enthusiastic workers with $1 billion.

But, Can Obama Raise $1 Billion?  “Ummm, this ain’t rocket surgery folks.”

President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign for the White House was a spectacular event.  Using his skills honed as an inner city community organizer in Chicago, he won the race with 7 million more popular votes than any candidate in the history of presidential politics, employing 6,000 staffers who managed an all-volunteer army of 13 million enthusiastic workers.

Obama paid for his historic 2008 campaign by raising a $745 million campaign war chest, staggering when compared to the mere $368 million raised by the McCain camp; staggering when you consider that $500 million was raised online, most in increments of $100 or less.

David Plouffe, President Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, revealed their strategic secrets in his book The Audacity to Win.  He tells the story of how a startup group of rag tag recruits defeated the dream teams of both the Democrats and the Republicans with a once-in-a-lifetime-candidate, a single powerful message, “Change,” and a website used to organize and communicate with staff and volunteers.  Oh, also, a website used to raise money unlike any campaign.

In September 2008 alone, the Obama campaign raised $150 million; $100 million of that had been raised online as a result of 10 fund-raising e-mails.  “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,”[1]wrote Plouffe.

The reason Obama launched his campaign on Monday, April 4, is that by filing papers with the Federal Election Commission he is now allowed to raise money.  A New York Times story on Monday titled, Obama Opens 2012 Campaign, With Eye on Money and Independent Voters, says Obama, “… is preparing to undertake the most ambitious fund-raising effort by a sitting president.”  What will the money be used for?  “The money will not be used for television ads – this year, at least – but rather to hire an army of workers to begin organizing supporters.”

There you have it, a massive ground game.  Obama’s role?  Run the country and raise money.

Can Obama raise $1 billion?  Well, he is starting early, he is the sitting President of the United States, he raised $745 million in 2008, and he is committed to the most ambitious fund-raising effort ever.  As my favorite uncle once said, “This ain’t rocket surgery folks.”

We made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina

Throughout the primary, the Obama campaign defied conventional wisdom by targeting those least likely to vote … like younger white voters, independents, newly registered African-American voters, and African-American voters who had voted sporadically in the past.

In North Carolina, they invested heavily in early turnout of non-habitual voters with radio and Internet ads pushing early voting.  They also sent e-mail and text messages to tens of thousands urging early voting; they called tens of thousands more and sent volunteers door-to-door.

On May 6, 2008, Primary Election Day exit polling here in North Carolina was so conclusive that the moment the polls closed the national networks declared Obama the winner over Clinton.

Plouffe recalls the 14-point blowout in his book this way:  “As the returns came in, we could see the traces of our strategy’s design: by registering over 100,000 new voters, producing strong turnout among African-Americans and young voters, and winning college-educated whites thanks to our stand against the gas tax, we made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina.”[2]

Obama’s strategy for carrying North Carolina in November of 2008 was as unconventional as that of the May Primary Election.  He knew he could not defeat a Republican presidential nominee in the Old North State with TV ads, no matter how much money he spent.  His only hope was a massive ground game, registering and turning out non-traditional voters.

To carry out the unconventional strategy, the Obama campaign opened 47 headquarters in North Carolina and hired over 400 paid staff.  These young professionals were responsible for a record early voting total of 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004), more voters than on Election Day.  Seven out of 10 of the early voters were either Democrats (51%) or Unaffiliated (19%).  African Americans comprised 28% of early voters, as compared to only 19% in 2004.

When the dust settled after Election Day, Obama had won North Carolina.  For the first time since 1960, North Carolina had elected Democratic sweep to the White House, the Governor’s Mansion and the U.S. Senate in the same election year.  An unconventional strategy produced an equally unconventional result: the first African American president, the first woman governor, and the first Democratic woman to represent the state in the U.S. Senate.

The $1 Billion Question: Can Obama Carry NC in 2012?

All of this brings me to the $1 billion question: Can Obama carry NC in 2012?

To answer that question, I need to remind you of this: John McCain was a weak nominee, too old and too boring; associated with one of the most unpopular presidents in U.S. history, and who blundered mightily by waiting until the last month to campaign in North Carolina.

If Republicans make that same mistake again, the answer is “yes,” Obama will surely invest a competitive amount of his $1 billion war chest in winning North Carolina and can surely win again with his unconventional ground game.  Slight gains in the nation’s economic condition are beginning to be reported.  If the economic trajectory is consistently upward, even if ever so slight, Obama’s job approval will return to 50% and he will win another term.

However, if Republicans field a strong presidential nominee … one who inspires the generosity of Republican donors and raises a conservative army of enthusiastic volunteers who will do the hard work of winning campaigns like registering and turning out voters, then the answer is “no,” Obama will not likely carry North Carolina again … even if he wins a second term handily.

Obama won North Carolina with only 14,177 out of 4.3 million.  He did everything right and his opponent did everything wrong.  The odds are that will not happen again.

– END –

[1] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, page 327.

[2] The Audacity to Win, page 229.

Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle.  The Premium subscription is $485 a year.  Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year.  This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.  Call me if you are interested and I will come visit with you: 919-696-3859.

Sincerely,

John N. Davis, President

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On the Death of Geraldine Ferraro: NC Women have Defeated Men in 23 of 31 Statewide Campaigns Since 2000

by johndavis, March 30, 2011

[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/JDPR-MARCH-30-2011-Ferraro.mp3|titles=JDPR MARCH 30 2011 Ferraro] “Do not put such unlimited powers into the hands of the Husbands.  Remember all men would be tyrants if they could.  If particular care and attention is not paid to the Ladies, we are determined to foment a Rebellion, and will not hold ourselves bound by any laws in which
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“Do not put such unlimited powers into the hands of the Husbands.  Remember all men would be tyrants if they could.  If particular care and attention is not paid to the Ladies, we are determined to foment a Rebellion, and will not hold ourselves bound by any laws in which we have no voice, or Representation.”

From a letter written by Abigail Adams to her husband, John,
who was attending the Continental Congress, March 31, 1776

We know better than to repeal our Masculine systems

When Abigail Adams threatened in her March 31, 1776 letter to her husband, John, that women would “foment a Rebellion” if they were not given a say in the new laws of the land, he wrote in reply, “We know better than to repeal our Masculine systems.”

The exchange between Abigail and John Adams amplifies the most important conclusion in this report:  women were not given equal rights by men, they had to seize them.

March is National Women’s History Month.  The 2011 theme is, “Our History is Our Strength.”  President Obama issued a proclamation in which he stated that this is the month during which, “we reflect on the extraordinary accomplishments of women and honor their role in shaping the course of our Nation’s history.”

Likewise, Gov. Beverly Perdue, North Carolina’s first woman governor, formally announced Women’s History Month with a proclamation that included this bit of history: “WHEREAS, in 1774, fifty-one women organized the Edenton Tea Party, one of the earliest political acts taken by North Carolina women in protest of the taxation of the colonies without representation within the British government.”

This report is written in honor of Women’s History Month and on the occasion of the death of Geraldine Ferraro, the first woman Vice Presidential candidate of a major political party in American history (Mondale/Ferraro defeated in 1984 by Reagan/Bush).  Although she did not live to realize her dream of attending “the inauguration of first woman president of the United States,” surely she must have been made proud a thousand times over as women, inspired in part by her example, seized opportunities to lead throughout every walk of life.

Women Governors and State Executive Elective Offices

North Carolina Leads the South with Women Elected to State Executive Offices

State Executive Elective Offices: In 2011, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers, women hold 69 of the nation’s 317 state executive elective offices (38 Democrats, 30 Republicans, and one independent) … including six governorships.

Gov. Beverly Perdue, North Carolina’s first women governor, chairs the Council of State, comprised of 9 statewide executive elective offices.  Women hold 5 of the 9 positions, including Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Commissioner of Labor Cherie Berry, Superintendent of Public Instruction June Atkinson, State Treasurer Janet Cowell and State Auditor Beth Wood.

In addition to Gov. Perdue here in North Carolina, Oklahoma has a Democrat woman governor.  There are four Republican women serving as governor, including Arizona, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and New Mexico.

  • Ella Grasso (D-CT) was the first woman governor elected in her own right (1974)
  • 34 women have served as governor in 26 states (19 Democrats, 15 Republicans)
  • All but 3 women governors have been elected since Ferraro’s 1984 VP race[1]
  • NC leads the South in 2011 with 6 women elected to state executive offices (5D, 1R)
  • Women currently serving in state executive elective offices in Southern states: AL 5, OK 3, FL 2, TX 2, KY 2, AR 1, SC 1
  • GA, VA, TN, LA and MS have “0” women serving in state executive elective offices

North Carolina’s Battle of the Sexes since 2000: Women 23, Men 8

In 1996, Elaine Marshall, a Democrat from Lillington, became North Carolina’s first woman elected to a statewide executive office.  Marshall out-raced her GOP opponent, “The King” of NASCAR, Richard Petty, by several car lengths.

Since November 2000, there have been 31 statewide general election races in North Carolina that pitted a man against a woman, including state judiciary offices, state executive offices, and federal statewide offices.  Women have won 23 of those 31 races, including two women elected to the U.S. Senate, Elizabeth Dole, a Republican, and Kay Hagan, a Democrat.

As a result of those 23 statewide wins, women have the majority of the Council of State and the North Carolina Supreme Court.  The seven-member court includes Chief Justice Sarah Parker, Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson (NC’s first African American woman on the court), Justice Robin Hudson and Justice Barbara Jackson.

The North Carolina Court of Appeals had an 8/7 female majority until Gov. Perdue appointed Judge Cressie Thigpen in January to fill the unexpired term of Judge Barbara Jackson, shifting the Court of Appeals to 8/7 male judges.

A toilet, not a urinal, in the judge’s chambers … or go to jail!

Susie Sharp was the first woman to serve on the North Carolina Supreme Court.  She was appointed in 1962 by Democratic Gov. Terry Sanford to fill an unexpired term.  Rhoda Billings was the first Republican woman on the Supreme Court, appointed by GOP Gov. Jim Martin.  In 1986, Justice Billings was appointed Chief Justice, the first Republican woman.

In 1974, Sharp became the first female in the U.S. to be elected Chief Justice of a state Supreme Court, with a landslide 74% of the vote.  However, in the early days of her distinguished career, while serving as the state’s first woman Superior Court Judge, she was not so well received.

On the occasion of the unveiling of Sharp’s portrait at the Supreme Court in 1996, Franklin Freeman, a former Associate Justice, gave the formal address in which he told the story of her confrontation with Burke County commissioners over the matter of the need for a toilet in the judge’s chambers.

“The Burke County commissioners refused, upon learning of her assignment to their county, to modify the only bathroom facilities in the judge’s chambers; a sink and a urinal that hung on the wall. Judge Sharp opened court on Monday morning at 10:00 a.m. and ordered the sheriff to “invite” the county commissioners over to the courthouse. By 11:00, the courthouse was aflutter with the scurrying about of plumbers, carpenters, and electricians, while the county commissioners narrowly avoided a few nights repose in the county jail.”

Restated for emphasis: women were not given equal rights by men, they had to seize them.

Here are the 31 statewide races in North Carolina since election year 2000 that pitted a woman candidate against a man:

Election Year 2000

Secretary of State

Elaine Marshall (D) defeated Harris Blake (R)

Commissioner of Labor

Cherie Berry (R) defeated Doug Berger (D)

Commissioner of Agriculture

Meg Phipps (D) defeated Steve Troxler (R)

Court of Appeals

Robin Hudson (D) defeated Paul Stam (R)

John Martin (D) defeated Wendy Enochs (R)

Election Year 2002

U.S. Senate

Elizabeth Dole (R) defeated Erskine Bowles (D)

Court of Appeals

Martha Geer (D) defeated Bill Constangy (R)

Sanford Steelman (R) defeated Loretta Biggs (D)

Election Year 2004

Lt. Governor

Beverly Perdue (D) defeated Jim Snyder (R)

Superintendent of Public Instruction

June Atkinson (D) defeated Bill Fletcher (R)

Commissioner of Labor

Cherie Berry(R) defeated Wayne Goodwin (D)

Supreme Court

Sarah Parker (D) defeated John Tyson (R)

Court of Appeals

Linda McGee (D) defeated Bill Parker (R)

Barbara Jackson (R) defeated Alan Thornburg (D)

Election Year 2006

Supreme Court

Sarah Parker (D) defeated Rusty Duke (R)

Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D) defeated Eric Levinson (R)

Mark Martin (R) defeated Rachel Lea Hunter (D)

Election Year 2008

President

Obama/Biden (D) defeated McCain/Palin (R)

Governor

Beverly Perdue (D) defeated Pat McCrory (R)

Secretary of State

Elaine Marshall (D) defeated Jack Sawyer (R)

Auditor

Beth Wood (D) defeated Les Merritt (R)

Treasurer

Janet Cowell (D) defeated Bill Daughtridge (R)

Superintendent of Public Instruction

June Atkinson (D) defeated Richard Morgan (R)

Supreme Court Justice

Justice Robert Edmunds (R) defeated Suzanne Reynolds (D)

Court of Appeals Judge

Judge Linda Stephens (D) defeated Dan Barrett (R)

Cheri Beasley (D) defeated Doug McCullough (R)

Sam Ervin IV (D) defeated Kristen Ruth (D)

Judge Jim Wynn (D) defeated Jewel Ann Farlow (R)

Election Year 2010

United States Senate

Sen. Richard Burr (R) defeated Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D)

Supreme Court Justice

Judge Barbara Jackson (R) defeated Judge Bob Hunter (D)

Court of Appeals Judge

Judge Martha Geer (D) defeated Dean Poirier (R)


Ferraro’s Dream: the inauguration of the first woman US President

When Abigail Adams wrote to her husband on March 31, 1776, “If particular care and attention is not paid to the Ladies, we are determined to foment a Rebellion, and will not hold ourselves bound by any laws in which we have no voice, or Representation,” little did she know that the “Rebellion” would take two centuries.

John Adams would follow George Washington as the nation’s chief executive, elected President of the United States in 1796.  It would be exactly 200 years later, 1996, before the first woman would serve in an executive role as important as Secretary of State of the United States … the highest-ranking cabinet secretary in line of succession in the event of the death or incapacity of the president. Her name was Madeleine Korbel Albright.

Madeleine Albright was born in Prague, the daughter of a Czech diplomat.  She was appointed Secretary of State in 1996 by President Bill Clinton, becoming the 64th US Secretary of State.  Since Albright, two women have been appointed Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, appointed by Republican President G.W. Bush in 2005, and the current US Secretary of State, Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton, appointed by Democratic President Barack Obama in 2009.

Although Geraldine Ferraro died last week before realizing her dream of attending “the inauguration of first woman president of the United States,” surely she took great pride in just how close Hillary Clinton came to winning the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008, and in seeing another woman run on a major party presidential ticket with the selection of Sarah Palin by GOP presidential nominee John McCain.

She didn’t live to see a woman president, but she lived to see tens of thousands of women elected to governmental service and ascend to the highest positions of respect and authority in public and private life; she lived to see tens of millions of women seize their equal rights and opportunities.

One day these awe inspiring words will be spoken, and when they are, we will remember Geraldine Ferraro: “Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States and Mister ….”

[1] Refers to women elected in their own right.

Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle.  The Premium subscription is $485 a year.  Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year.  This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.  Call me if you are interested and I will come visit with you: 919-696-3859.

Sincerely,

John N. Davis, President

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