Post: December 7, 2010 Volume III, No. 2 “I can’t control my caucus anymore.” NC Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, Sited in John Davis Political Report, Volume II, No. 8, December 10, 2009 NOTE: For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking
[More…]
Post: December 7, 2010 Volume III, No. 2
“I can’t control my caucus anymore.” NC Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, Sited in John Davis Political Report, Volume II, No. 8, December 10, 2009
NOTE: For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking on this link: www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
After selecting the “Sign UP” button, you will be directed to the PayPal site. Look at the bottom of the page for: “No PayPal account? Pay using your credit or debit card.”
Call me if you wish to discuss an advisory relationship 919-696-3859.
If you prefer to process an invoice, click here.
A Political Wave Does Not a Majority Make
Many assert that the Republican “Wave” of 2010 was the reason that North Carolina Republicans won the majority in both chambers of the General Assembly on November 2, a first since 1898. Well, if all it takes is a GOP “Wave,” then why haven’t Republicans won the majority in the North 
Carolina General Assembly more often than the one time in 1994 … during a stretch of 112 years? Why is it that only two other states, Oregon and Washington, have an undefeated run of Democratic governors as long as North Carolina?
Sorry, a wave does not a majority make.
The Republican “wave” that swept the U.S. this fall presented a wonderful opportunity for Republicans to achieve historic gains in North Carolina … but nothing more than a wonderful opportunity. Democrats have always been able to beat back the national Republican wave election years because of money, savvy and unity … aided by underfunded Republican candidates and Republican Party disunity.
In 2010, the Republican and Democratic caucus strengths were reversed. It was the Democrats who began to self destruct. Republicans seized that opportunity by doing everything right while the Democrats were doing the most important things wrong.
The potential for Republicans to hold the majority long term has nothing to do with “wave” elections, it is great because they have gotten very good at winning campaigns.
Divided Democratic Leadership Led by Inexperienced War Generals
The NC Senate Democratic Caucus started down the road to defeat on November 17, 2009, a year before the 2010 elections. That was the day Sen. Martin Nesbitt (D-Buncombe) was elected Majority Leader following the abrupt resignation of long-time Majority Leader and Rules Chairman Sen. Tony Rand (D-Cumberland).
Rand was a great war general; Nesbitt was not.
The historic era of unparalleled power of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight came to an end that day. Basnight began to tell his friends, “I can’t control my caucus anymore.” A new era of Senate leadership began, an era led by seasoned urban lawyers with unquestionable public policy credentials … but not political combat credentials.
Marc Basnight and Tony Rand were unquestionably two of the most powerful legislative leaders in state history … powerful because they knew how to win campaigns even during GOP wave years. However, they wielded their power with such ruthless efficiency that over time they made lots of enemies … including in their own caucus. The little known fact outside the Raleigh beltline is that Basnight and Rand were slowly becoming a minority in their majority caucus.
Basnight and his inner circle were business owners. Their fatal flaw was the failure to see the value in maintaining a base of philosophical allies in their caucus by recruiting and helping elect other Democratic business owners.
And so, imperceptibly over time, a liberal coalition of Senate Democrats grew in number and coalesced to create its own force, a mutinous force that became stronger than that of the leaders Basnight and Rand.
Thus, the fall of the Basnight/Rand Empire … and with it, a divided caucus led by inexperienced political war generals. They were doomed a year ago.
United Republican Leadership Led by Seasoned War Generals Who Can Raise Money
By 2008, Senate Republicans and their political team under the leadership of Phil Berger from Eden had become seasoned political combat veterans. They had become so good that they would have won a majority of seats in the North Carolina Senate, during one of the worst years for Republicans in modern political history, if it were not for the unity, savvy and especially the fundraising prowess of the Basnight/Rand political machine.
Senate Democrats were forced to spend an average of $500,000 per competitive race just to fend off Republicans who spent a third of that. That’s how effective Republican leaders, their political staff and their consultants had become at winning campaigns. They were a serious political threat even during a Democratic “Wave” … long before the GOP wave came along.
Among House Republicans, a strong political war general was needed. In 2010, that leader emerged in the name of Thom Tillis, a two-term member of the House from Huntersville. Tillis joined Skip Stam from Apex in what has become a powerful force with a working relationship that has the long-term potential equal to that of Basnight and Rand. They are competent, intelligent, politically savvy, and committed to the state … with a priority of restoring the state’s economic vitality. Oh, and they can raise money!
“We went in united, we came out united.”
Most importantly, Stam and Tillis are united.
I asked a House member to tell me about the Republican House Caucus meeting held a couple of weeks ago during which Skip Stam and Thom Tillis vied against each other for the position of Speaker. That member said, “We went in united, we came out united … thanks to the way Skip Stam and Thom Tillis conducted themselves.” That speaks well for long-term majority status for Republicans in the North Carolina House.
And speaking of the importance of unity and political warfare experience, the role played by NC GOP Party Chair Tom Fetzer in 2009 and 2010 cannot be overstated. A party with a history of being divided, conservative versus moderates, came together under the leadership of Fetzer. Fetzer not only brought unity to the GOP this election cycle, he brought political savvy and fundraising skills from his years as Mayor of Raleigh and as a political consultant.
Fetzer’s rallying theme for the 2010 elections: “One Team, One Goal, Victory.” Unity, savvy and successful fundraising is why Republicans won in 2010. Otherwise, 2010 would have been just another Republican “wave” year written off as a just another missed opportunity.
Don’t Dismiss the Significance of the GOP Commitment
To suggest that “the wave” alone would have carried the GOP into power in 2010 not only flies in the face of NC history, it dismisses the significance of the GOP commitment.
- It dismisses the significance of a leave-it-all-on-the-battlefield 18-month commitment of time and energy by an atypically savvy and united group of NC Republican party leaders and their exceptional staff;
- It dismisses the significance of an atypically savvy and united Senate and House Republican caucus leadership team and their exceptional political staff;
- It dismisses the definitive value of the thousands of volunteers who manned the phone banks for months making 2 million calls so they would not be beat this year in the early voting turnout;
- It dismisses the extraordinary class of candidates who neglected their families and risked their personal resources while working the campaign trail to exhaustion day after week after month after month … nights and weekends;
- It dismisses the significance of thousands of new contributors to Republican candidates and the hard work of those who took the time to work the phones raising the money;
- It dismisses the significance of new independent expenditure groups that followed the 2008 labor union play book with a partisan investment of millions;
- It dismisses the significance of the fact that through mid-October, Republican fundraising was UP twice as much as in 2008 while Democrats were DOWN $2 million;
- It dismisses the significance of the Tea Partiers and all of those rallies held all over the state … rallies organized by organizations like Americans for Prosperity and Civitas … rallies that would not have happened if it were not for committed and hard-working staff;
- It dismisses the significance of the value of 60 polls made public by organizations like Civitas, Carolina Strategy Group and Public Policy Polling … and groups like the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation who compiled political research for easy access;
- It dismisses the significance of the value of organizations like the John Locke Foundation that was a constant source of misery for Gov. Perdue and the Democratic establishment, keeping them tripped up with their effective investigative reporting and in-your-face news releases;
- It dismisses the significance of the constant drum beat of conservative thought pushed into the public conscience by talk radio, Fox News and a gazillion conservative publications and web sites.
Republicans in other states may have inadvertently won the power because of the national wave. Here in North Carolina, the “wave” was nothing more than an opportunity.
Republicans seized that opportunity by doing everything right while the Democrats were doing the most important things wrong. The potential for Republicans to hold the majority long term has nothing to do with “wave” elections, it is great because they have gotten very good at winning campaigns.
Well, there you have it, the John Davis Political Report for Tuesday, December 7, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
For those of you who are subscribers, I thank you so much for supporting my work.
For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Subscription, or $4,850 for the Advantage Subscription that includes an advisory relationship.
“As a former member of the North Carolina House, Senate and Executive Branch of North Carolina government, I would not want to be without the John Davis Political Report – a must for those that love the political arena and our state!” Glenn Jernigan, Glenn Jernigan & Associates
“I am frequently asked to identify the brightest political mind in North Carolina. Even before his amazingly accurate and perceptive views on the historic 2010 election, I always responded, “JOHN DAVIS.” Now I doubt anyone will have to ask me because John’s political forecasting, along with his rationale, received widespread attention every day during the final months of the campaign.” Phil Kirk, President/CEO Emeritus, North Carolina Chamber; Chairman Emeritus, State Board of Education; Director, Brady Energy Services
“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
“Just straight up, fact-based, analysis.” Richard H. Moore, Treasurer, North Carolina, 2000 – 2008
“John Davis was right, he was early, and he made the bold calls publicly with political evidence. There was no need for a crystal ball; he simply used history, common sense and solid political science. He called the legislative ‘flip’ to GOP control earlier than any other analyst.” Bill Weatherspoon, American Petroleum Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina
– END –
Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
PLEASE URGE YOUR ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE!
Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups
Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Advisory Relationship
Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.
Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Late-Breaking-Trends-Nov-2-2010.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends Nov 2 2010] “The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and
[More…]
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
 |
 |
|
Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
|
|
Advantage Democrats
|
|||
“The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…” John Davis Political Report, Nov. 2, 2010
Late Breaking Trends
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
All of the Kings Horses and All of the Kings Men
The loss of confidence in President Obama and the Democratic Party started in 2009
Post: Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends partisan advantage tracking charts and you will see that the GOP has a double-digit political momentum advantage in today’s elections in NC … and that they have sustained that advantage since the chart was created on August 16, 2010.
Here are 4 of the 12 variables from today’s Late Breaking Trends charts:
- Only 13% of Americans rate the economy as “Excellent/Good” (74% said so in 2001)
- 64% of Americans say the country is on the “wrong track;” 31% say “right track”
- 74% of Americans “disapprove” of the job the U.S. Congress is doing
- 56% of NC voters “disapprove” of the job Pres. Obama is doing; 41% “approve”
Adding to the overall malaise among North Carolina Democrats today is low favorability rating or Governor Bev Perdue. According to today’s Pollster.com, only 22.7% of North Carolinians have a favorable impression of Purdue.
Here are the latest headlining studies that make the case for a big GOP win today:
Oct. 28 – Republican Party Equals the Democratic Party’s 3rd Quarter Fundraising in NC: According to a study of 3rd quarter campaign finance reports by the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, “This year, Republicans have raised $3.3 million, and the Democrats took in $3.7 million in the 3rd quarter: much closer to a 1-to-1 match. By way of comparison, in the 3rd quarter of 2008, “the Republican Party raised $1.5 million and the Democratic Party raised almost $5.9 million: a 4-to-1 Democratic advantage.” If in fact Republicans have taken away the Democrats’ last line of defense, money, then the GOP will win a majority in both the NC Senate and NC House.
Oct. 31 – Republican 15-Point Advantage on Generic Ballot Unprecedented in Gallup History: On October 31, 2010, USA Today/Gallup released the results of a national poll conducted Oct. 28-31 showing a 15-point gap in likely voters favoring Republicans in U.S. Congressional races. The report concluded, “This year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations.”
Nov. 1 – GOP Early Voting Net 11 Points Over 2008 Turnout: A net 11% swing to the favor of Republicans in early voting this fall when compared to the fall of 2008 bodes well for the GOP in North Carolina today. In 2008, North Carolina Democrats made up 51% of those who voted early during the General Election. This fall, Democrats made up only 46% of those who voted early, for a net loss of 5% of total early voters when compared to 2008.
On the other hand, Republicans made up only 30% of the early voters in the fall of the 2008. This year, the percent of early voters who are Republican is up from 30% to 36%, for a net gain of 6% when compared to total early voters in the fall of 2008. A combination of the 6% gain by Republicans and the 5% loss by Democrats in early voting creates the 11-point GOP swing.
Nov. 2 – Republican 19-Point Enthusiasm Advantage Largest Midterm Gap in Decades: According to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Oct. 28-31, “The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points (63% of Republicans, including Republican-leaning independents, say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to only 44% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents).
May/June – Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010: In May and June of this year, I wrote a 10-part series on the political liabilities faced by the NC Democratic Party in 2010. Part 10, on the role President Obama played in creating the loss of enthusiasm among Democrats, was featured in yesterday’s John Davis Political Report.
If you agree that President Bush contributed greatly to the Republican losses in 2008, and that the Congressional Republicans contributed greatly to their losses in 2006 and 2008, then you will know where I am coming from with this conclusion:
What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
The Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the “Safety” Automaker; Perdue the “Ethics” Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative
#10: Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment
The loss of confidence in how President Obama and the Democrats in Congress are leading the country should have been abundantly clear a year ago with the election of Republican governors in Virginia and New Jersey. And certainly there could have been no doubt after the election of a Republican to Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts earlier this year.
The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…”
– END –
Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.
Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Tuesday, November 2, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
PLEASE URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!
In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily. I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:
Individual Subscription $48.50 Annual Individuals and Small Business
Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups
Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Consultation Relationship
Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.
Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win.
[More…]
|
|
|
Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
|
|
“Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win. And that is what is happening in this state.” John Davis Political Report, April 13, 2010, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard
Late Breaking Trends
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
GOP Early Voting Net 11 Points Over 2008 Turnout
Advantage Shifts Significantly from Democratic to Republican in 2010
Post: Monday, Nov. 1, 2010, by John Davis
In 2008, North Carolina Democrats made up 51% of those who voted early between the dates of Oct. 16 and Nov. 1. This fall, Democrats made up only 46% of those who voted early since Oct. 14, for a net loss of 5% of total early voters when compared to 2008.
Republicans made up only 30% of the early voters in the fall of the 2008. This year, the percent of early voters who are Republican is up from 30% to 36%, for a net gain of 6% when compared to total early voters in the fall of 2008.
A net 11% swing to the favor of the GOP this fall, coupled with last week’s big news about campaign funding near parity, bodes well for North Carolina Republicans tomorrow.
The 2010 numbers are from the following AP story on turnout of early voters:
http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/10/31/772524/950000-voters-have-already-cast.html
Is the NC Democratic Party the Toyota of State Politics?
Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to Loss of Voter Market Share
John N. Davis, President
In May of this year, I wrote a 10-part series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company in that they are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders.
The report lead to the following conclusion: Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win. And that is what is happening in this state.
The following paragraph is restated for emphasis: What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
The Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to Loss of Voter Market Share are:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker; Perdue the Ethics Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative
#10: Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment
What follows is report #10. All reports are available at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
Written in May, 2010
Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointments
“What’s disappointing to me,” said Stupak, “is learning that Toyota seems to have focused more on discrediting its critics than on solving the problem.” Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Michigan, May 20, 2010; U.S. House Commerce Committee Hearing on Toyota’s sudden acceleration problems[i]
Obama’s inspiring oratory and hopeful message of change during the 2008 presidential race moved tens of millions from every walk of life to believe that he would be different; that he would be far greater than his predecessor.
And certainly President Obama would be able to manage a disaster better than the way President Bush handled Katrina. But now, in the aftermath of a catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf, what we see is a vulnerable and defensive leader with approval ratings plummeting to new lows.[ii]
North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as he did in 2008. Instead, what they have is just another bumbling president betrayed by his gift for gab … a mere mortal walking on oily water in a sea of disappointments.
Obama Disappoints: Average Weekly Job Approval Reaches All-Time Low in June
The great hope for change in Washington has been reduced to great disappointments following political disaster after political disaster. It’s little wonder that President Obama’s job approval rating is only 44%, a 52-week low. According to Gallup, Obama’s weekly average job approval has reached a new low as well, 46%, from a weekly average of 65% this time a year ago.[iii]
- He ran as a man of great courage but has become a defensive scapegoater
- He ran as a friend of the environmentalists but authorized more offshore drilling
- He ran as a dove but has morphed into a hawk on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
- He ran as a uniter but has become a partisan wrecking ball with his legislative agenda
- He ran as a centrist but is governing as a liberal surrounded by liberals
- He ran as a man of the people but put his priority, healthcare, ahead of their priority, jobs
- He ran as a man who would close Gitmo and would not hire lobbyists … ha!
- He ran as a leader committed to fiscal responsibility but is overseeing a doubling of the national debt (projected at $19 trillion by 2015); “unsustainable” said Bernanke 6/10
- He ran against Wall Street but recapitalized their bonuses with taxpayer money
- He ran as an economic and jobs stimulator but unemployment/underemployment is still at 20%,[iv] with almost all of the new jobs in May being temporary with the Census Bureau
- He said his would be the most transparent administration in history yet he manages the news media with connivances, stonewalling and defensive double-speak
Obama would be well served to closet himself for a while at the White House and ponder Ralph Waldo Emerson’s sage caution, “What you are speaks so loudly, I cannot hear what you say.”
Where’s the Unlimited Money? The Paid Staff? The Enthusiastic Volunteers?
Democrats won many races in 2008 thanks to Obama’s oratorical skills and the disdain voters had for the Bush administration. Obama’s ability to inspire led to record fundraising and ultimately to the millions of dollars invested by his campaign in our state. Unlimited money brought hundreds of field staff to North Carolina who managed thousands of enthusiastic volunteers who succeeded in registering and turning out a record-breaking number of voters.
Nationally, the Obama campaign raised a staggering $782 million, employed 6,000 staffers who managed an all-volunteer army of 13 million Americans. In September 2008 alone, they raised $100 million online as a result of 10 e-mails. “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,”[v] writes David Plouffe, President Obama’s campaign manager, in his book The Audacity to Win.
Why did Obama’s national fundraising success matter here in North Carolina in 2008? “Every additional dime was being funneled into battleground states,” said Plouffe. He recalled the Primary Election Day in North Carolina when Obama defeated Clinton by 14 points. “As the returns came in, we could see the traces of our strategy’s design: by registering over 100,000 new voters, producing strong turnout among African-Americans and young voters, and winning college-educated whites …. we made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina.”[vi]
During the fall of 2008, the Obama campaign had 47 headquarters in our state, with over 400 paid staff in the twenty-something age group. These junior operatives were responsible for record early voting totaling 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004). More voters voted early than voted on Election Day!
Where is the inspired oratory in 2010? The record-breaking fundraising? The hundreds of paid staff? The thousands of volunteers working tirelessly to register and turn out Democrats?
Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Michigan, said on May 20, 2010, during the U.S. House Commerce Committee Hearing on Toyota’s sudden acceleration problems, “What’s disappointing to me is learning that Toyota seems to have focused more on discrediting its critics than on solving the problem. [vii] Likewise, what’s disappointing to so many who were inspired by candidate Obama in 2008 is that President Obama seems to have focused more on discrediting his critics than on accepting responsibility for solving the problems of the day.
North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as he did in 2008. Instead, what they have is just another bumbling president betrayed by his gift for gab … a mere mortal walking on oily water in a sea of disappointments.
END
[i] http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter
[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx
[iii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx
[iv] http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx June 10, 2010
[v] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, Pg 327.
[vi] Ibid, Pg 229
[vii] http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter
Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.
Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Monday, November 1, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
PLEASE URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!
In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily. I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:
Individual Subscription $48.50 Annual Individuals and Small Business
Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups
Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Consultation Relationship
Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-HOUSE-UPDATE.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC HOUSE UPDATE] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: See handicap for all 50 NC Senate races and 120 NC House races by clicking on the
[More…]
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-HOUSE-UPDATE.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC HOUSE UPDATE] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: See handicap for all 50 NC Senate races and 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily graphics above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64
Post: October 28, 2010 (Friday, October 29, 2010 UPDATE)
NC House GOP Caucus Likely Majority Party: NC House GOP Caucus can count on 64 Seats in the 120-member NC House of Representatives, 66 seats if the 4 toss-up races split evenly. All political indicators … money, momentum, turnout and political warfare leadership … point to a GOP majority after next Tuesday’s elections.
Investors Political Daily Chart: Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House report and you will see that Tom Murry, Morrisville Town Councilman and Republican nominee in Wake County House District 41, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Chris Heagarty, D-Wake.
Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Johnny Dawkins, Fayetteville City Councilman and Republican nominee in Cumberland County House District 44, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland.
UPDATED FRIDAY, OCT. 29: According to a new SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 25-26 for the Civitas Institute, “Republican candidate Johnny Dawkins is maintaining his lead over Democratic Rep. Diane Parfitt in the state House District 44 race – comprised of Cumberland County.
Of the 300 voters surveyed, 49 percent said they would vote for Dawkins if the election for state representative were today. Forty-four percent said they would vote for Parfitt, and 7 percent are undecided.
However, among those who are most likely to vote in 2010, Dawkin’s lead increases to 56 percent-37 percent.”
The Civitas news release, dated today, Oct. 29, also noted that Rep. Rick Glazier, D-Cumberland, is now trailing his GOP opponent, Jackie Warner, R-Cumberland, by 10 percent (Warner 51%; Glazier 41%). Warner is the wife of former Rep. Alex Warner.
This race has been moved to “toss up” on today’s Investors Political Daily NC House report.
NOTE: All 120 NC House races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 29 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 22 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 64 wins next Tuesday, 66 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 61 seats in the 120-member House to rule.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 28 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 12 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 51 wins next Tuesday, 53 if they split the 5 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a double-digit partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was written Wednesday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
· Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
· Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
· Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
· Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-Senate.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC Senate] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors
[More…]
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-Senate.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC Senate] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily report graphics above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC Senate Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 29
Post: October 29, 2010
No changes since last week’s Investors Political Daily NC Senate report, which showed the NC Senate Republican Caucus with a likely majority of 29 senators. All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 11 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 7 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 29 wins next Tuesday, with a possibility of 30 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 26 seats in the 50-member Senate to rule.
NOTE: All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have only 1 candidate with NO OPPOSITION, 16 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 1 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 18 wins next Tuesday, 20 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy an 18-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
The Big Differences between 2008 and 2010: The big differences in Senate races this year are money, momentum and leadership:
- The Senate Democratic Caucus’ national model political war machine fall apart with a half-dozen key retirements, especially the loss of the old war general Tony Rand.
- The Senate Republican Caucus has grown exponentially in strength and effectiveness in all areas of campaign fundamentals this cycle, from recruiting and fundraising to strategic planning and united leadership.
- Republicans have the political momentum advantage.
- Republicans have neutralized the one advantage that Democrats have always managed to dominate and parlay into winning the majority: money.
- Democratic scandals, involving Senators and caucus alums including Tony Rand, R.C. Soles and Gov. Beverly Perdue, have been a major distraction.
- Governor Perdue is a drag on all Democratic candidates with her dismal 21% “Favorable” rating.
- The big money corporate folks are hedging their bets and helping Republicans big time.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was written yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
- Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
- Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
- Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
- Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.
“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: View all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily chart above. Investors Political Daily North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64 Post: October 28, 2010 NC House GOP
[More…]
“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: View all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily chart above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64
Post: October 28, 2010
NC House GOP Caucus Likely Majority Party: NC House GOP Caucus can count on 64 Seats in the 120-member NC House of Representatives, 66 seats if the 4 toss-up races split evenly. All political indicators … money, momentum, turnout and political warfare leadership … point to a GOP majority after next Tuesday’s elections.
Investors Political Daily Chart: Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House report and you will 
Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Johnny Dawkins, Fayetteville City Councilman and Republican nominee in Cumberland County House District 44, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland.
NOTE: All 120 NC House races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 29 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 22 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 64 wins next Tuesday, 66 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 61 seats in the 120-member House to rule.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 28 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 52 wins next Tuesday, 54 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a double-digit partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was writing yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
· Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
· Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
· Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
· Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-21.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 21] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “Tea Party detractors have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down. Those detractors have forgotten that
[More…]
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
|
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary |
| [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-21.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 21] |
|
|
|
Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
|
|
“Tea Party detractors have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down. Those detractors have forgotten that world history is replete with local insurrections that escalated into full-scale rebellions, rebellions that forced concessions by kings and nobles or the complete overthrow of the high and the mighty.” John Davis Political Report, April 13, 2010, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard
GOP’s Focus on Economy Forges Powerful New Coalition with Far Reaching Potential
Post: Thursday, October 21, 2010, by John Davis
MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR SOLID IN NC FOR MONTHS: When I created the Late Breaking Trends tracking charts in mid-August, I expected that the double-digit advantage favoring North Carolina Republicans would tighten up as Election Day neared. It always does. It has not.
Take a look at the graphs below from today’s Late Breaking Trends charts and you will see that not only has the partisan momentum advantage favored the GOP for many months, the advantage has not dropped below 18% since early September for NC Senate races, or below 12% for NC House races.
Here are two new numbers from Gallup this week that are indicative of the overall dissatisfaction with the policies of the nation’s political leadership … numbers that are driving the GOP-friendly trend:
Obama’s Ratings at New Low: Today, Gallup reports that, “President Barack Obama’s job approval average of 44.7% marks a new quarterly low.” Gallup also reports that Obama’s “favorable rating has also reached a new low as president, at 47%,” with a majority saying he does not deserve re-election.
Satisfaction with Direction of U.S. Lowest in 30 Years: On Monday of this week, Gallup reported that only 21% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., and that “If that figure does not improve considerably in the next two weeks, it would be the lowest level of U.S. satisfaction Gallup has measured at the time of a midterm election in more than 30 years….”
The GOP is favored by 11 out of 12 economic and political indicators tracked daily for two months in the Late Breaking Trends feature chart developed by the John Davis Political Report.
For emphasis: Not once in two months have NC Senate Democrats had an advantage on any of the 12 economic and political variables used to create the Late Breaking Trends trend line. The same is true for the NC House Democrats with one exception: the mid-year campaign finance reports filed with the State Board of Elections showed NC House Democrats with a 2-to-1 Cash on Hand advantage. The new reports will be out next week. Look for a major tightening of the campaign funding gap, as Republicans are likely to report their best fundraising election cycle ever.
Today’s NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point advantage.
Today’s NC House Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 12 point advantage.
GOP’s Focus on Economy Forges Powerful New Coalition with Far Reaching Potential
The two smartest decisions made this year by the North Carolina Republican political war generals are: #1 – To focus on economic concerns and stay away from the issues that have driven independents over to the Democrats for many election cycles; and, #2 – To invest early and heavily in a voter turnout operation designed to give them the advantage in early voting and Election Day turnout.
They’ve done a good job with decision #1. We’ll have to wait until Election Day to see what kind of job they are doing with decision #2 … the turnout operation. That will decide their fate.
The GOP leaders in the state and nation should thank their lucky stars for the Tea Party movement, and should be commended for embracing them rather than trying to convert them. The Tea Partiers set the agenda for this election cycle and kept it focused on economic matters. That’s why it has been so successful.
Tea Party detractors, from day one, have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down. Those detractors have forgotten that world history is replete with local insurrections that escalated into full-scale rebellions, rebellions that forced concessions by kings and nobles or the complete overthrow of the high and the mighty.
That’s where we are in America today. Tea Partiers are voters who, like our Boston ancestors in 1773, feel like their concerns are not being respected by governmental leaders. Unlike their Boston ancestors, they are looking for something to throw overboard besides tea.
If the GOP is given the opportunity to lead in Raleigh and Washington, they just may be able to keep the powerful new conservative/independent majority coalition together for many election cycles to come … IF, and only if, they keep their economic agenda front and center and do not allow themselves to be defined by their social agenda.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
For a profile of the Tea Party folks read my April 13, 2010 John Davis Political Report titled, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard.
Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.
Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Thursday, October 21, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
PLEASE URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!
In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily. I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:
Individual Subscription $48.50 Annual Individuals and Small Business
Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups
Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Consultation Relationship
Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.
Thanks so much for supporting the John Davis Political Report!
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-19.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 19] “Two years ago, black Democratic women led all groups in the 17-day early voting period,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, noting the remarkable shift to white Republican men among early voters since last
[More…]
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
 |
|
||
|
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates
|
|||
“Two years ago, black Democratic women led all groups in the 17-day early voting period,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, noting the remarkable shift to white Republican men among early voters since last Thursday.
Post: October 19, 2010, by John Davis
NOTE: View all 50 Senate races and all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily charts above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
NC House GOP Likely to Win 62 Seats; Final Count Likely a 65/55 GOP Majority
Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House chart and you will see for the first time that the North Carolina House Republican Caucus now has 62 seats that they would likely win if the elections were held today. Democrats have 52 seats that they would likely win if the elections were held today.
If the two parties split the 6 toss-up races, the final count will be 65 Republicans in the North Carolina House, 55 Democrats.
The two changes on today’s Investors Political Daily NC House charts are:
- House District 116: This Buncombe County race, pitting incumbent Democrat Jane Whilden against GOP challenger Tim Moffitt, has been moved from “Toss up” to Moffitt “Favored.” The move was based on new polling released Monday, the voting history of the district (held for six terms by Republican Rep. Wilma Sherrill), and the overall 2010 GOP-friendly trends … especially those relating to the constituencies most likely to vote in higher numbers.
- House District 9: This Pitt County race, pitting incumbent Democrat Marian McLawhorn against GOP challenger Stan Larson, has now been moved from McLawhorn “Favored” to a “Toss-up.” The move was based on recent polling that showed McLawhorn trailing her Republican opponent outside the margin of error, and the overall 2010 GOP-friendly trends … especially those relating to the constituencies most likely to vote in higher numbers.
What the 55 State Legislative Polls Say: A historic number of state legislative polls have been conducted this election cycle: 23 Senate races; 32 House races. Here is the consistent pattern:
- There is greater enthusiasm among Republicans for Republican candidates than among Democrats for Democratic candidates
- Unaffiliated and self-described independent voters are breaking 2-to-1 Republican
- Republicans are consistently shown to be the most likely to vote by far in 2010
- There is a universal dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and nation and the “Job Approval” of those with power in Washington and Raleigh … all Democrats.
Thanks to the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, all of the 55 legislative poll results can be seen by linking to the NCFEF Poll Tracker report.
Most of the polling has been done by Civitas and the Carolina Strategy Group. Check out the Civitas polls here. Check out the Carolina Strategy Group polls here.
Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a 12-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
NC Senate GOP Likely to Win 29 Seats; Final Count Likely a 30/20 GOP Majority
The change on today’s Investors Political Daily NC Senate chart is in Senate District 116, a Pitt, Wayne, Green County race pitting incumbent Democrat Don Davis against GOP challenger Rep. Louis Pate. The race has been moved from “Toss up” to Pate “Favored.”
The move was based on these facts:
- Davis won by only 53% of the vote in 2008, in one of the most Democratic-dominated turnout of voters in modern political history in North Carolina … driven by a year-long commitment of resources by the Obama campaign. Without the historic voter registration and turnout machine of 2008, Davis cannot win.
- Davis is from Green County, which has less than 10% of the district’s voters. Pate is from Wayne County, which, along with Pitt County, split the lion’s share of the voters in the district.
- As of the first three days of early voting, Wayne County is in the top 10 counties in the state for early voting of white Republican men.
Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy a 16-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
White Republican Men Lead Record Pace of Early Voting was the headline of yesterday’s Democracy North Carolina press release, reporting the results of the first three days of early voting. “Two years ago, black Democratic women led all groups in the 17-day early voting period,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, noting the remarkable shift to white Republican men.
What caused the dramatic shift in political fortunes? An economy in crisis was the driving force in 2008; the economy is the driving force in 2010.
In 2008, we were disappointed with our leaders in Washington, especially Republicans, and we made our sentiments perfectly clear at the ballot box. In 2010, we are again disappointed with our leaders, who happen to be Democrats both in Washington and Raleigh. You can count on us to make our sentiments perfectly clear at the ballot box throughout early voting and on Election Day.
The Democrats are in trouble for exactly the same reasons that got the Republicans in hot water during the past two election cycles. They have failed to make the case that they can govern better.
Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance. Timing also has a lot to do with who wins campaigns. In 2010, timing favors Republicans.
Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 19, 2010.
Republicans can count on 62 seats in the 120-member NC House, 65 if the “toss-up” races split.
Republicans can count on 29 seats in the 50-member NC Senate, 30 if the “toss-up” races split.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.