North Carolina Congressional Forecasts; No Change since Exclusive Scoop July 1, 2011 The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election. John Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report Friday, October 12, 2012 Vol. V, No. 33 9:13 am Exclusive Scoop in 2011 On Friday morning, July 1, 2011,
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North Carolina Congressional Forecasts; No Change since Exclusive Scoop July 1, 2011
The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election.
John Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report
Friday, October 12, 2012 Vol. V, No. 33 9:13 am
Exclusive Scoop in 2011
On Friday morning, July 1, 2011, subscribers to the John Davis Political Report were the first to see the new congressional districts proposed by the legislative remappers. The headline read, North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre Fighting Chance.
A historic Republican advantage was in the making. When the final maps were enacted into law on July 28, 2011, only 3 districts of 13 were safe for Democrats. By the time the filing deadline rolled around on February 29, 2012, Congressmen Brad Miller (Wake County) and Heath Shuler (Haywood) conceded to the Republican advantages in their districts and announced that they would not seek reelection.
Two Democratic Congressmen, Mike McIntyre (Robeson) and Larry Kissell (Montgomery), decided to fight against the odds for 
reelection. As last year’s headline read, McIntyre has a fighting chance. Kissell does not.
Congressman McIntyre is a seasoned campaigner who can count his war chest by the millions of dollars; a classic Eastern North Carolina Blue Dog Democrat who has the endorsement of the National Rifle Association and over 50 Southeastern North Carolina mayors. Former state Senator David Rouzer is a newcomer to big league politics, and may be out-muscled despite the favorable leaning of the district.
Larry Kissell’s chances for reelection are slim-to-none. The most loyal Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County were carved out of this one-time Swing district held by Republican Robin Hayes (Cabarrus) for five terms. It is now safe territory for GOP challenger Richard Hudson (Cabarrus).
Bottom line: The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters: Republicans 49%; Independents 47%; Democrats: 4%; Conservatives 52%; Moderates/Liberals: 48%. Evangelical Christians: 22%. New Hampshire GOP Primary Results: Romney: 39% (97,399); Paul: 23% (56,601); Huntsman: 17% (41,796); Gingrich: 10% (23,329); Santorum: 9% (23,204); Perry: 1% (1,762) “That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the
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New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters: Republicans 49%; Independents 47%; Democrats: 4%;
Conservatives 52%; Moderates/Liberals: 48%. Evangelical Christians: 22%.
New Hampshire GOP Primary Results: Romney: 39% (97,399); Paul: 23% (56,601); Huntsman: 17% (41,796); Gingrich: 10% (23,329); Santorum: 9% (23,204); Perry: 1% (1,762)
“That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the status quo of this country.”
Ron Paul, Tuesday, January 10, New Hampshire “Victory Speech”
Romney: Viewed as Most Likely to Beat Obama; Least Likely to Satisfy Conservatives on Managing Federal Budget … but Most Acceptable. Will Libertarian Uprising Dash GOP Presidential Hopes in NC?
Post: Friday, January 13, 2012 Vol. V, No. 2
Romney’s NH GOP Primary Win Not as Big as “Acceptable” Win this Week
The most significant presidential campaign development this week was not Mitt Romney’s decisive win in New Hampshire. After all, he is New Hampshire’s “homeboy” as described by fellow GOP presidential contender Jon Huntsman. And, only about half of New Hampshire’s GOP Primary voters were either Republicans or self-described conservatives.
Tuesday’s NBC Exit Poll shows that only 49% of the New Hampshire Republican Primary voters think of themselves as Republican. Those who think of themselves as Independent made up 47% of the GOP primary voters; 4% think of themselves as Democrats!
The same exit poll shows that 48% of the New Hampshire GOP Primary voters think of themselves as either Moderate (35%) or Liberal (13%). Only 52% of New Hampshire Primary voters consider themselves Conservative! Only 22% say they are evangelical Christians.
So, what motivated New Hampshire GOP Primary voters to give Mitt Romney a big win? Answer: He is viewed as the most likely to defeat President Obama in November. Note: His conservative bona fides were considered the least important in New Hampshire.
- Can defeat Barack Obama 35%
- Has the right experience 26%
- Has strong moral character 22%
- Is a true conservative 13%
A combined 82% of New Hampshire GOP Primary voters polled said that they are either “Dissatisfied, but not angry” with the Obama administration (42%), or “Angry” with the Obama administration (40%). Why? It’s because a combined 95% are “Very worried” about the direction of the nation’s economy (69%), or are “Somewhat worried” (26%).
Bottom line: New Hampshire GOP Primary voters had two things on their mind when they gave Romney the big win Tuesday, other than being their “homeboy,” he has the best skill set to deal with their #1 issue, the economy (62%), and he is the most likely to defeat Obama (61%).
Big win for Romney Tuesday, but not as significant as Tuesday’s Gallup poll.
Gallup: 59% of Republicans See Romney as “Acceptable” Nominee
Far more significant than the New Hampshire GOP Primary win for Romney is a new Gallup survey released Tuesday showing that 59% of all Republicans around the country see Romney as an “acceptable GOP nominee for president.” According to Gallup, Romney is “the only candidate with majority support on this measure.”
The same survey shows only 46% of the nation’s Republicans see Gingrich as an acceptable nominee, and only 45% see Santorum would be acceptable. A majority of Republicans around the country say that Perry, Paul, and Huntsman are unacceptable as the GOP nominee.
The most positive result of the Gallup survey for Romney fans is that the same number of conservative Republicans found Romney an acceptable GOP nominee (59%) as Moderate/Liberal Republicans. That is a major breakthrough for Romney.
Bottom Line: Mitt Romney is the only GOP contender with broad acceptability across ideological lines among the nation’s Republicans. That decisive support can be seen in Gallup tracking polls that show Romney leading all other GOP contenders by better than 2-to-1 (Romney 34%; Santorum 15%; Gingrich 14%; Paul 13%; Perry 5%; Huntsman 2%).
Will Libertarian Uprising Dash GOP Presidential Hopes in North Carolina?
According to Gallup’s tracking on the question, “If the election were held today …,” President Obama would defeat Romney by 50% to 48%. Same result if Gingrich were the nominee.
Here in North Carolina, if the election were held today, Obama would defeat Romney by one point, 46%/45%, would tie Santorum 46%/46%, and would defeat all other GOP contenders by 5 points or more, according to polling by Public Policy Polling from January 5 – 8, 2012.
The biggest threat to the Republican presidential game plan in North Carolina is a Libertarian uprising. You can see that threat clearly in the Public Policy Poll, showing that Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson, former two-term Governor of New Mexico, would get 8% of the vote in North Carolina, most of which would hurt Romney if he is the GOP nominee.
Johnson announced his switch to the Libertarian Party in late December at a news conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico. “I have been a Republican my entire life,” he said. “I don’t view this as leaving the Republican Party as much as the Republican Party has left me.”
The least likely voters to concede the GOP nomination this year are the Ron Paul self-described “dangerous” supporters. “I sort of have to chuckle when they describe you and me as being dangerous,” Paul said with a big grin during his “victory speech” Tuesday night, “That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the status quo of this country.”
That “status quo” clearly includes the Republican status quo.
Obama’s Best Hope for a Second Term
My view is that Obama will not do nearly as well in North Carolina as he did in 2008, when he won by only 14,171 votes out of 4,310,789 cast.
He has lost the surprise factor, lost the enthusiastic support of his base (African American voters excepted), and has raised serious doubts about whether he has the credentials for dealing with the most important issues facing the next president: managing the nation’s budget crisis, managing the nation’s debt crisis, and managing the nation’s private sector competitiveness crisis … all three critical to the nation’s jobs crisis. Even if he wins a second term he is not likely to carry North Carolina.
Obama’s best hope for a second term is a GOP divided by the Ron Paul Libertarians, the Rick Santorum social conservatives and the Tea Party congressional Republicans who have helped drive the job approval of the U.S. Congress to historic lows.
Our nation’s problems are bigger than party or ideology. Irresponsible members of both parties got us into the mess were are in, and irresponsible members of both parties are keeping us in it.
What is the definition of irresponsible members? It is: Those members who think their party or their ideology is more important than bipartisan collaboration on managing the nation’s budget crisis, managing the nation’s debt crisis, and managing the nation’s private sector competitiveness crisis … all three critical to the nation’s jobs crisis.
President Obama’s best hope for a second term is a dysfunctional Congress and a divided GOP.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
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“The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.” John Davis Political Report, December 21, 2011 Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory; Implications for 2012 Results in a 40%
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“The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.”
John Davis Political Report, December 21, 2011
Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory; Implications for 2012 Results in a 40% GOP Nation
Post: December 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 34
And the Wall Street Journal Agrees!
If you go back and read all 2011 John Davis Political Reports, you will find this consistent drumbeat: the best hope for President Obama’s re-election success is the Tea Party faction of the U.S. House Republican Caucus.
Yesterday’s rejection of a bipartisan Senate bill to extend the payroll-tax cut is another example of how House Republicans are making the same mistake Obama made: thinking the election results were a mandate for partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives. Wrong.
According to Gallup’s three year average, only 40.4% of Americans are Republican or Lean Republican. The same study shows only 39.8% of Americans are conservative. Where does the House GOP Caucus get the notion that those who are struggling financially care which party is responsible for putting them back to work; responsible for getting the country out of debt? Does it matter to most if it’s conservatives or moderates or liberals who come to the rescue?
The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.
House Republicans are driving independent voters away, thereby jeopardizing all Republicans.
Today’s Wall Street Journal agrees. In an editorial titled, The GOP’s Payroll Tax Fiasco, WSJ concludes, “We wonder if they [U.S. House Republicans] might end up re-electing the President before the 2012 campaign even begins in earnest.”
The nation is only 40.4% Republican; 39.8% conservative.
The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.
What Part of a 4-to-1 Obama Approval vs Congress Approval is Confusing?
I have shown time and again throughout 2011 that it’s the President not the Congress who Americans trust more to solve the country’s biggest problems of the day: sovereign debt and jobs. All year, the congressional job approval numbers have hovered in the low teens, near 10%, while the President’s job approval has hovered in the low 40s.
Today, Real Clear Politics shows Congressional Job Approval at 12.5%; President Obama’s Job Approval at 46.5%. What part of a 4-to-1 Presidential Job Approval over Congressional Job Approval do Republican members of the U.S. House not get?
A new Washington Post-ABC News Poll shows Congressional Democrats getting a 27% job approval rating, with only 20% approving of the job Congressional Republicans are doing. On the other hand, President Obama gets a 49% approval rating.
Ummmmmmm, let’s see. Congressional Republicans get a 20% approval rating and President Obama gets a 49% approval rating. How is that likely to play out in 2012?
The most ominous poll number I have read all year for uncompromising fiscal conservatives like the U.S. House Republican Caucus is a Gallup survey that shows that Independents, by almost 2-to-1, believe that it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs,” even if little gets done (27%).
In 2012, look for the Tea Party conservatives to continue to be a disruptive force in the Republican Party. If they continue to insist on their own priorities, as Obama and his fellow Democrats did when they put health care over jobs and the national budget crisis, they will suffer the same fate in November of 2012 as Democrats did in 2010.
- The Tea Party is on track to help re-elect President Obama
- The Tea Party is on track to limit the likely GOP U.S. Senate majority to 1 or 2 seats
- The Tea Party is on track to help Democrats pull off an upset U.S. House turnover
- The Tea Party is on track to cut the GOP potential for statewide pickups in NC in half (Council of State, 1 Supreme Court and 3 Court of Appeals races).
- The Tea Party is on track to keep the NC Senate and House from winning veto-proof super majorities (they will still win the majority in both chambers if districts stand)
Fortunately for likely GOP Gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory, Perdue is still on track to lose in a rematch because she is so weak that even the Tea Party can’t screw that race up! According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey, Perdue’s approval rating stands at 37% (about where its been since she took office) and she lags McCrory in the governor’s race by 10 points (50-40), about where its been since she took office.
All in all, Republicans are in for a big year in 2012 at the federal and state levels provided they can convince the Tea Party that giving up half of what they want to get half of what they want is the way progress is made in a Democracy.
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Merry Christmas! Happy Hanukkah! Happy New Year!
I can’t thank you enough for reading the John Davis Political Report this year. I am all too aware that you expect me to get it right … every time. That’s what I strive to do each week.
May God Bless You and Your Family!!!
John N. Davis, Editor
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“The global war for jobs determines the leader of the free world. If the United States allows China or any country or region to out-enterprise it, out-job-create it, out-grow its GDP, everything changes. This is America’s next war for everything.” Jim Clifton, Chairman & CEO, Gallup; The Coming Jobs War Like WWII, the U.S. Must
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“The global war for jobs determines the leader of the free world. If the United States allows China or any country or region to out-enterprise it, out-job-create it, out-grow its GDP, everything changes. This is America’s next war for everything.”
Jim Clifton, Chairman & CEO, Gallup; The Coming Jobs War
Like WWII, the U.S. Must Fight and Win Two Wars: The U.S./European Sovereign Debt War and the U.S./Asian Global Competitiveness War. How to Win the Jobs War with 1,700 Rupees
Post: December 7, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 33
Underdog to Superpower: WWII Model for Winning Today’s Economic Wars
Today, we honor those who lost their lives in the Japanese bombing raid on our ships and airfields at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941, and those who died in the ensuing battles in the two great theaters of World War II, the European and the Asian-Pacific.
Up until today, 70 years ago, most Americans were isolationists. Despite daily news of the devastation in Britain and other European nations during two years of attacks by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, we didn’t want to get involved; didn’t want to make the sacrifices.
Frankly, we were ill-equipped to get involved after a decade of 25% unemployment, low personal income and tax revenues during The Great Depression. Foreign trade was down to half of what it was before the nation’s worst economic crisis; crop prices were cut in half as well.
Until I read a review of the book Pacific Crucible: War at Sea in the Pacific, 1941-1942 by Ian W. Toli, in The Wall Street Journal on November 26, I did not realize how unprepared we were to engage in global conflict. According to Toli, the United States was an underdog during the first year of the war with Japan in terms of inferior numbers of men, inferior equipment, warships, planes and technology.
However, immediately after Pearl Harbor the United States became a nation united in purpose and willingness to sacrifice. We were united by the threat to our country and our freedoms; united by the realization that if we did not win both wars our right of self-determination would be in the hands of an occupying power.
Within two years, the United States was transformed from underdog to a military superpower because of unity, sacrifice, ingenuity and productivity … and many war heroes. Consider these facts from Pacific Crucible: War at Sea in the Pacific, 1941-1942:
- Two years after Pearl Harbor, the United States was producing 89,000 aircraft a year
- The U.S. built 40% more aircraft annually than the British and Germans combined
- The U.S. built 29,000 tanks in 1943, twice as many as the Germans
- In 1943, the U.S. built 369 major warships, five times the combined totals built by the British, Germans and the Soviet Union
- Two years after Pearl Harbor, the U.S. built 2,000 cargo ships, 13 times the number lost to German U-boats that same year
Two Must-Win Economic Wars: Sovereign Debt and Global Jobs Competitiveness
Today, our nation is fighting two economic world wars on two fronts just like in WWII.
The Sovereign Debt Front is being fought by financially irresponsible countries like the United States and the “European Theatre” countries like Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal. Those countries can’t pay their sovereign debts; they fund their budgets with borrowed money thereby raising concerns worldwide about fiscal competence and trustworthiness.
The second front is the Global Jobs Competitiveness Front being fought by the United States and the “Asian-Pacific Theatre,” in countries like China and India.
The consequences of losing either war are as potentially devastating as they were during WWII.
A bankrupt country is a defenseless country that cannot well maintain the health, education and general welfare of its citizens. Businesses and industries in a bankrupt country bear the disruptive and costly burden of public sector instability, limiting their ability to compete with their peers in financially stable nations.
So, how do we win both wars?
Solutions: Unity, Sacrifice, Innovation, Productivity … and Medal of Honor Winners
The greatest problems limiting the ability of the United States to win both economic wars are:
- No unity of Purpose (partisan/ideological estrangement)
- No willingness to Sacrifice (you go first)
- No interest in Innovation (not in my job description)
- Manufacturing Productivity (that’s an offshore thing)
- No Medal of Honor Winners (am I my brother’s keeper?)
On November 22, in my report titled, Dear Lord: We Thank Thee for the Blessing of the Super Committee, I stated that the U.S. Congress has confirm what 90% of Americans already know: our nation’s greatest obstacle to winning the debt and jobs economic wars is political gridlock. I concluded that the only solution is to throw out all Senators and Representatives who are not willing to compromise … especially the Republicans and the Democrats.
For clarification: The intent is not to get rid of the ideological extremists in both camps, the most liberal and most conservative, the intent is to get rid of all who refuse to collaborate and compromise. We cannot win these two wars without leaders willing to sacrifice for the common good.
Any Republican who says “No” to $10 in cuts to $1 in taxes needs to be replaced. Here’s why: You may be able to win the sovereign debt war with cuts in programs and services, but you cannot win the global jobs competitiveness war without investment paid for with new revenue … governmental investment in infrastructure, especially educational infrastructure.
Any Democrat who says “No” to putting every program on the table for cost cutting reform, especially all entitlement programs, needs to be replaced. Here’s why: You may be able to win the global jobs competitiveness war with investment in infrastructure paid for with new revenue, but you can’t win the sovereign debt war without cuts in programs and services … especially entitlements.
How to Win the Global Jobs Competitiveness War with 1,700 Rupees
India’s Department of Human Resources sponsored a competition worldwide for a $10 smart tablet computer. The goal was to get 220 million children online in India, a very poor county where few could afford a $500 Apple iPad or even a $199 Kindle Fire.
After five years, no one had come up with a $10 smart tablet. However, a London-based company Datawind did develop one for 2433 Indian Rupees (INR), about $47. With a $15 subsidy from the government, the tablet, named Askash, is available to teachers and students for 1,700 Rupees, about $32.
Datawind is making 100,000 units a month, giving Indian children word processing, web browsing and video conferencing capabilities … for 1,700 Rupees. Production capability will increase over time with the goal still being to get all 220 million of India’s children online.
As far as the $10 goal, it’s still on the table. “The intent is to start a price war,” said Datawind’s chief executive, Suneet Singh Tuli.
I have always wondered what would happen if everybody in the world had immediate access to all of the information in the world. Well, we are about to find out … India is about to find out.
War for Global Jobs is America’s next War for Everything
Jim Clifton, Chairman and CEO of Gallup, in his new book, The Coming Jobs War, writes, “Losing World War II would have ended America as the world knew it, not to mention much of the democratic Western world.” He writes, “It was a war for America’s very freedom, for the West’s freedom, for leadership of the free world. It was a war for all the marbles. Everything was on the line, and a loss would have changed everything.”
Clifton concludes, “The global war for jobs determines the leader of the free world. If the United States allows China or any country or region to out-enterprise it, out-job-create it, out-grow its GDP, everything changes. This is America’s next war for everything.”
The Next Economic Empires, the Potential Societal Hell
As to leadership, Clifton says that “traditional leadership through politics, military force, religion, or personal values won’t work in the future like it has in the past.”
Here’s why:
“As of 2010, the world has a total gross domestic product (GDP) — or the sum of countries’ total goods and services for one year — of $60 trillion. Of this, the United States has nearly $15 trillion or about 25%, which is huge. Over the next 30 years, the global GDP will grow to an estimated $200 trillion. So a new $140 trillion of customers, employees, new businesses, and equity will come into the global mix. The global war for jobs will be an all-out battle for that $140 trillion because within that sum of money is the next evolution of the best jobs in the world. Within that $140 trillion will rise the next economic empires, as well as the potential for societal hell.”
For emphasis: “Within that $140 trillion will rise the next economic empires, as well as the potential societal hell.”
December 7: A Salute to all Veterans
On November 9, I was honored by my friend Glenn Jernigan with an invitation to attend a Salute to the Veterans at the Capital City Club in Raleigh. I had the distinct pleasure of sitting with Medal of Honor award winner Joe Marm. Since 1861, the Medal of Honor has been awarded by the President of the United States to our nation’s bravest Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines and Coast Guardsmen.
You can read Marm’s story here. It’s a story of one man risking his life in the heat of battle during the Vietnam War for the greater good of his company and country. Citation: For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of life above and beyond the call of duty.
Throughout the year, the nation has watch the 535 members of the U.S. Congress fighting the legislative battles in the effort to win the two economic world wars our country is engaged in: the war against sovereign debt and the war for global jobs competitiveness.
Can you name a single member of the U.S. Senate or U.S. House willing to sacrifice their party or their ideology for the greater good? Willing to make the kind of sacrifices that would earn them a “Medal of Honor” in the war against sovereign debt and global jobs competitiveness.
I didn’t think so. That’s why they are in trouble next year with the American voters.
Today, as we honor those who lost their lives in the Japanese bombing raid on our ships and airfields at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941, and those who died in the ensuing battles in the two great theaters of World War II, the European and the Asian-Pacific, may we remember that winning takes unity of purpose, a willingness to sacrifice, innovation, productivity … and a few Medal of Honor winners.
May God bless all who have served … and all who are serving.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!!!
John N. Davis, Editor
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Post: November 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 32 “The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.” Sam Johnson, Chairman NC House Appropriations Committee 1969; Johnson, Hearn, Vinegar, Gee & Glass, Raleigh, NC Dear Lord: We Thank Thee for the Blessing of the Super Committee; The Best Way to Get
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Post: November 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 32
“The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.”
Sam Johnson, Chairman NC House Appropriations Committee 1969; Johnson, Hearn, Vinegar, Gee & Glass, Raleigh, NC
Dear Lord: We Thank Thee for the Blessing of the Super Committee; The Best Way to Get Rid of a Bad Law is to Enforce It
Post: November 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 32
As We the People Prepare for Thanksgiving, May We Also Prepare our Ballots
As we the people prepare for Thanksgiving, may we give thanks for the U.S. Congressional Super Committee for confirming what we already knew: our nation’s greatest problem is a gridlocked Congress and the only solution is to throw them out … especially the Republicans and the Democrats.
Sam Johnson, a distinguished Raleigh attorney who chaired the North Carolina House Appropriations Committee in 1969, instructed me many years ago, “The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.” Johnson’s Law applies to everything in life. If you want to get rid of a bad preacher, put them on TV! If you want to get rid of a bad governor, let them govern.
If you want to get rid of fiscally irresponsible Members of Congress, let them manage the budget.
But what about the president, isn’t he equally responsible for the inability of our national leaders to come up with a plan to deal with our debt/deficit/jobs crisis? The voters say it’s the Congress.
Today’s Real Clear Politics average “Job Approval” for Congress is 12.3%, with 81.7% disapproving of the job Congress is doing.
Today’s Real Clear Politics average “Job Approval” for President Obama is 44.1%, with 49.1% disapproving of the job the president is doing.
No matter what we think the truth is about who is to blame for the failure of the debt/deficit/jobs crisis negotiations, the fact is that nearly four times as many Americans blame Congress for the failure than the president. Who is more likely to be punished politically, the guy with the 44.1% job approval or the guys with the 12.3% job approval?
This Congress has proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that they are incapable of leading this country out of our economic crisis and into a future of global competitiveness with the emerging economic superpowers.
A Bankrupt Country is Defenseless, Illiterate, Unhealthy and Uncompetitive
The U.S. Congress has given the American public no other choice than to replace them. Why? Because they have proven time and again that their party or their ideology is more important than the greater good of the United States.
A bankrupt country is a defenseless country. We are rendering our country bankrupt, and therefore defenseless, with sacred cow defense spending. This Congress has sold us out to the Pentagon and the military industrial complex.
A bankrupt country cannot educate its children. We are rendering our country bankrupt and threatening our overall literacy with sacred cow education spending. This Congress has sold us out to the education bureaucracy and teachers unions.
A bankrupt country cannot promote the general welfare of its citizens. We are rendering our country bankrupt and our most needy vulnerable with cradle to the grave sacred cow social programs, retirement packages and health care entitlements. This Congress has sold us out to greedy public employee unions and greedy special interest groups … like SEIU and AARP.
A bankrupt country cannot create an entrepreneurial environment for global private sector free market competitiveness. We are rendering our country bankrupt and our businesses uncompetitive with bailouts of our banks, automobile manufacturers, housing lenders and insurance companies. This Congress has sold us out to Bank of America, GM, AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
A bankrupt country cannot create an entrepreneurial infrastructure of great universities and public/private partnerships for innovative thinking and long-range problem solving for a new generation of young adults by bankrupting our country with tax loopholes and low marginal rates for those who have benefited the most from the freedom to compete for profit in America. This Congress has sold us out to those who can afford to game the system … and those who turn statesmen into cowed wimps with ploys like the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.
It’s Time for a New Generation of Radical Moderates, Reformers and Innovators
Throughout the three past election cycles of shifting partisan fortunes, voters were trying to say to would-be leaders that our country is in serious trouble and that we must put partisanship, ideology and sacred cow budgeting second to the greater need for economic stability and global competitiveness.
In 2006 and 2008, Republicans lost the trust of the American people. Democrats took over the U.S. Congress and the Oval Office.
Big Mistake #1: The Democrats thought …
Big Mistake #1: Democrats thought they were being elected because of their party and their ideology. Nothing could have been further from the truth.
Voters were concerned about deficit spending, the national debt, and wars being waged because of weapons of mass destruction … that didn’t exist. They wanted competent leaders to solve those problems … not Democrats or liberals.
In 2008, voters were concerned about the housing crisis and the Wall Street meltdown, bank bailouts and huge job losses. They had lost faith in the ability of Republicans and conservatives to solve those problems and wanted competent leaders to solve those problems.
My Democrat friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Democrat or a liberal.
Since taking their oath of office in January of 2009, President Obama and the Democrats have governed as if the voters chose them because of their party and ideology. That is precisely why Democrats summarily lost the Governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey in 2009, Teddy Kennedy’s U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts in 2010, along with the U.S. House of Representatives, Governors and state legislators all over America in the fall of 2010.
On March 23, 2010, in an Indonesian TV interview, President Obama referred to his healthcare reform bill as, “The most important domestic priority.” Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat!!!!!!
My Democrat friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Democrat or a liberal.
Big Mistake #2: The Republicans thought …
Big Mistake #2: Republicans thought they were being elected in 2010 because of their party and their ideology. Nothing could have been further from the truth.
Voters were concerned about a $1 trillion budget deficit, a $13 trillion national debt, and wars being waged because of weapons of mass destruction … that didn’t exist. They wanted competent leaders to solve those problems … not Republicans or conservatives.
In 2010, voters were concerned about the housing crisis and the Wall Street bonuses and $787 billion stimulus spending and ever-increasing unemployment and foreclosures. They had lost faith in the ability of Democrats and liberals to solve those problems and wanted competent leaders to solve those problems.
My Republican friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Republican or a conservative.
Since taking their oath of office in January of 2011, Congressional Republicans have governed as if the voters chose them because of their party and ideology. That is precisely why all of the polls show the job approval of Congress in general and Republicans in particular at historic lows.
You had a chance to earn the faith of the American people during the debt ceiling debate in the summer and the debt/deficit management debate this fall and you blew it.
My Republican friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Republican or a conservative.
It’s Time to Throw Them Out … Especially the Democrats and the Republicans
Sam Johnson instructed me wisely when he said, “The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.” We can certainly see the value of Johnson’s Law when applied to this Congress.
If you want to get rid of fiscally irresponsible members of Congress, let them manage the budget.
As we the people prepare for Thanksgiving, may we give thanks for the U.S. Congressional Super Committee for confirming what we already knew: our nation’s greatest problem is a gridlocked Congress and the only solution is to throw them out … especially the Republicans and the Democrats.
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Happy Thanksgiving!
John N. Davis, Editor
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Post: October 10, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 27 “To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity.” Undisclosed NC Republican legislator, September 28, 2011 1964 GOP Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater Lost 61.1% to 38.5% After
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Post: October 10, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 27
“To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity.”
Undisclosed NC Republican legislator, September 28, 2011
1964 GOP Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater Lost 61.1% to 38.5%
After my report two weeks ago titled, “Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie Can Defeat President Barack Obama, I received the following emailed comment from a Republican member of the legislature … a friend with sensible views I have long admired:
“To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity. We must continue our struggle in the pursuit of excellence and return to the fundamental principles upon which American greatness was built upon. Compromise is not the answer.”
I immediately thought about the 1964 GOP nominee for President Sen. Barry Goldwater, R-Arizona, and his famous battle cry, “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice!”
Extremism in the defense of liberty cost the GOP the White House in 1964, and extremism in the defense of uncompromising economic conservatism during the worst recession since the Great Depression will cost the GOP the White House in 2012. It is simply politically inept.
However, it cuts both ways.
Uncompromising liberal economic extremists (Democrats and Republicans) got this country into the crisis we all face today. For decades, in Washington D.C. and in Raleigh, N.C., liberals have refused to be restrained by the economic caution of conservatives when it comes to government spending.
The unwillingness of liberals to compromise is the reason our country got into this crisis, and the unwillingness of conservatives to compromise is the reason we can’t get out of this crisis.
24,845,594 Reasons Conservative Economic Extremism will Cost the GOP
Take a look at today’s US Debt Clock, a real-time accounting of our nation’s finances, and you will see that “Actual Unemployed” in the United States is 24,845,594. The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines “Actual Unemployed” as the total unemployed, added to all marginally attached workers, plus those working part time but want to work full time.
In my report “Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains Why NJ Gov. Chris Christie Can Defeat President Barack Obama, I wrote about a Gallup survey released Monday, Sept. 26, that shows that Americans strongly prefer leaders who will compromise to stimulate the economy and jobs growth.
- It’s more important to “compromise” in order to get things done say 51% of Americans, as compared to only 28% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. The remaining 21% are neutral.
- Republicans are evenly split: 37% “Stick to beliefs;” 36% “Compromise.” Neutral: 27%.
- Democrats are overwhelmingly for “Compromise” (62%) in order to get things done in Washington compared to only 20% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. Neutral: 18%.
- By almost 2-to-1, Independents say it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs” even if little gets done (27%).
Voters want jobs and job security, not ideological defiance. Voters want a bipartisan long-range plan for dealing with the nation’s debt and deficit crisis, not economic Puritanism.
Don’t Tell Mama I’m a Member of the U.S. Congress, She Thinks I’m a Lobbyist
There is an old joke passed down for many generations in political circles that goes like this: “Don’t tell mama I’m a lobbyist, she thinks I’m a piano player at a house of ill repute.” Well, in today’s hostile political environment that joke could easily be rewritten: “Don’t tell mama I’m a member of the U.S. Congress, she thinks I’m a lobbyist.”
A new national survey by Gallup released Today, Wednesday, October 12, 2011 reveals that the U.S. Congress is “on track to register its lowest annual average approval rating for any year since Gallup began measuring congressional approval in 1974.”
- Only 13% of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job.
- Republicans’ and Democrats’ approval of Congress is identical, at 14%, similar to the 13% among independents.
- Comparison: President Obama’s job approval is 41% today, October 12, 2011
NOTE for Clarification: When pollsters measure the job approval of the U.S. Congress, they are referring to the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives.
Many in the GOP seem to miss the fact that the 47 Republican members of the U.S. Senate and the 240 Republican members of the U.S. House are included in the historic high dissatisfaction with Congress. Republicans have 287 of the 535 members of Congress, or 54%.
If 81% of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing, that includes most Republicans in America disapproving of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing.
Economic Extremism will cost the GOP dearly in 2012 … but there is a win-win
Republicans are in trouble with American voters because they have allowed the most conservative among them to put “sticking to beliefs even if little gets done” ahead of “compromising in order to get things done.”
Voters want jobs and economic stability, not ideological defiance. Voters want a bipartisan long-range plan for dealing with the nation’s debt and deficit crisis, not economic Puritanism.
So, to my Republican friend with a history of sensible views while serving in the legislature who wrote me that “Compromise is not the answer,” please remember that in 1964, Barry Goldwater received only 38.5% of the votes to 61.1% for President Lyndon Johnson. Goldwater carried 6 states out of 50 (AZ, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC), and only 52 electoral votes compared to 486 for Johnson.
Still not willing to compromise? OK, there is a way out without having to compromise … collaborate. At least be willing to collaborate. It’s your best hope of ending the worst recession since the Great Depression, jump-starting jobs growth, and restoring confidence with a long-range plan for stability.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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