North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked

by johndavis, July 14, 2011

Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis The
[More...]

Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated

North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated

Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps

John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis

The July 4^th half-price sale on an annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is being extended for the remainder of July! Now only $245 for a Premium Annual Subscription! Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online here!

Key Political Conclusions

Click here to see the New NC Senate Map Proposed by the NC General Assembly

UPDATE: 14 of North Carolina’s 100 counties have ½ of the state’s 6.1 million voters. Under the new state Senate maps, half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of those 14 counties. The counties are: Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, Cumberland, Durham, Buncombe, New Hanover, Gaston, Union, Cabarrus, Pitt, Catawba and Iredell.
UPDATE: The other half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of 86 counties.
UPDATE: Mecklenburg County has 10% of the 50 Senate districts; Wake another 10%.
UPDATE: During the past decade, 87 counties had a combined net population growth of 481,376, about the same as Wake and Mecklenburg combined.
We are witness to the urbanization of political power in North Carolina.
Under the new Senate districts, the majority party will likely be Republican for the remainder of the decade as there are 34 districts won by US Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race, 29 districts won by State Sen. Robert Pittenger in his 2008 race for lieutenant governor, and 26 districts won by US Sen. Elizabeth Dole in her last race against U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan in 2008.
The GOP advantage in the number of Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican and the likely first ever Republican fund-raising advantage argue for a long-term Republican Senate majority in North Carolina.
In 2008, there were 30 Senate districts that gave McCain a 50% or greater win, with 22 districts giving McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
Under the new maps, there are 34 Senate districts that would have given McCain a 50%-or-greater win, with 27 that would give McCain a 55%-or-greater win.

Surprises & Interesting Notes

Sen. Phil Berger, a Rockingham County Republican and Senate President Pro Tem, is double-bunked with Sen. Don Vaughan, a Guilford County Democrat. Burger appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (51% to 45% Perdue) and McCain (57% to 43% Obama).
Sen. Pete Brunstetter, a Forsyth County Republican, is double-bunked with Sen. Linda Garrou, a Forsyth County Democrat. Brunstetter appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (56% to 41% Perdue) and McCain (61% to 39% Obama).
Sen. Debbie Clary, a Cleveland County Republican, is double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Warren Daniel from Burke County. Clary announced last month her intentions to resign. Her replacement will have to face Sen. Daniel.
Sen. Jerry Tillman, a Randolph County Republican, has been double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Harris Blake from Moore County. Randolph County will have the advantage in the Republican primary.
CORRECTED: Only two Senate Democrats were double-bunked: Sen. Ellie Kinnaird (D-Orange) and Sen. Bob Atwater (D-Chatham) reside in the new Senate District 23, including all of Orange and Chatham counties.

Most Vulnerable Incumbents

The most vulnerable Democrat senators, not counting those who are double bunked with a Republican, are Sen. Doug Berger from Franklin County, Sen. Bill Purcell from Scotland County, and Sen. Stan White from Dare County (Sen. Basnight’s old seat).
The most vulnerable Republican senator, not counting those who are double bunked, is Sen. Wesley
Meredith from Cumberland County (Sen. Tony Rand’s old seat).
There are 9 majority-minority districts where the minority voting age population is 50% or greater. One district, Senate District 13, combines Robeson County and Columbus County to achieve a minority district that includes American Indian, Hispanic and African-Americans.

Legal Limits Established by GOP Stephenson Decision Limit GOP Gerrymandering

Republicans achieved one of the greatest political coups in North Carolina politics in 2003 by successfully litigating the radically gerrymandered maps drawn by the Democratic legislative majority following the 2000 census.

The Stephenson v. Bartlett decision by the North Carolina Supreme Court established new requirements for legislative redistricting in North Carolina that, ironically, now limit the ability of Republicans to do to Democrats what they have done to Republicans for many decades: radical partisan gerrymandering.

In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were 6 swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.

Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and rulings in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case, the courts in 2003 leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and 4 were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.

This year, the Stephenson case has forced Republicans to comply with the following:

Voting Rights Act districts must be drawn first to ensure compliance with federal law.

Population deviations must be within plus-or-minus 5% of the ideal district population.
Creating districts within counties (urban counties) or by combining whole counties is required until it is no longer possible to create a district without using a part of a county.
Example: Wake County now has 5 senate districts, 4 within the county and one in combination with all of Franklin County. Mecklenburg County has 5 districts, all within the county lines.

Before the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina looked more like a 1000-piece puzzle. After the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina look more like a state map of the counties. See the Legislative Guide to Redistricting for all law relating to remapping.

Sophisticated Mapping Technology Allows Long-range Maps

As with the congressional maps released two weeks ago, the changes in the new Senate maps are as politically significant as they are subtle, illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.

Adding to the likelihood that Republicans will keep the Senate majority for the remainder of the decade is the fact that today’s remapping technology allows districts to be drawn with population growth projections.

- END -

Knowing early how campaigns are likely to end takes the uncertainty out of politics, thereby saving you a lot of your time and your money. That’s what the John Davis Political Report is all about.

The ½ price July 4^th sale will continue throughout the month. If you are not a subscriber, Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form, or subscribe online to the John Davis Political Report at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

Need a speaker on redistricting? Contact me at www.johndavisconsulting.com/speaker-info

Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Look for the “Donate” button at www.johndavisconsulting.com.

Revised/Updated: North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts – Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre has Fighting Chance

by johndavis, July 5, 2011

“Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.” John Davis Political Report Post July 6, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Revised/Updated North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre
[More...]

“Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.” John Davis Political Report

Post July 6, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Revised/Updated

North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre has Fighting Chance

John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive Analysis

Last Friday, subscribers to the John Davis Political Report were the first in North Carolina to receive a comprehensive analysis of the new congressional districts proposed by the legislative reapportionment committees. Today, I am sending a Revised/Updated edition of that report. Information presented in bold italics has been added. There are new links with each district analysis that provides hundreds of facts about each of the proposed new districts. Check them out!

The July 4^th half-price sale on an annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is being extended for the remainder of July! Now only $245 for a Premium Annual Subscription! Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online here!

Key Conclusions:

Under the new congressional districts, the partisan advantage will shift from 7 Democratic and 6 Republican to 8 Republican and only 3 guaranteed Democratic districts, with 2 that will depend on the strengths of the candidates and the prevailing partisan winds of the given election year.

President Obama carried 8 NC congressional districts and Sen. McCain 5 in 2008. Under the 13 new districts, Obama would only carry 3 (Butterfield, Price and Watt).

Only 4 of the current districts gave McCain a 55%-or-greater vote in 2008 (Jones, Foxx, Myrick and McHenry). There are now 10 districts that would have voted for McCain for president at 55% or greater (all but Butterfield, Price and Watt). The same 10 districts would give US Sen. Burr a 60%-or-greater victory.

Gov. Perdue carried 9 of the 13 congressional districts in 2008, all but one greater than 50%. Under the new districts, Perdue would carry 5 (Butterfield, Jones, Price, McIntyre and Watt).

GOP gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory only carried 4 congressional districts in 2008 (Foxx, Coble, Myrick and McHenry). If the election were held under the new congressional districts, he would add Elmers, Kissell, Shuler and Miller to his wins.

Key District-by-District Conclusions

U.S. House District 1, currently held by Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a majority-minority district where Democrats have a 68% registration advantage over the meager 16% Republican registration. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 1 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 2, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Renee Elmers, has become a significantly more Republican-friendly district. This district was held throughout the last decade by Democratic Congressman Bob Etheridge. The new district has 39% Democratic registration and 36% Republican registration, a 3% Democratic advantage. However, under the old map, Democrats enjoyed a 23% advantage with 51% registered Democrats to only 28% registered Republicans. Elmers squeaked out a win in Republican friendly 2010. She will still have to work hard to hold this seat, but the new map gives her an advantage at the starting line.

Key County Changes: Harnett County, home to both Elmers and Etheridge, is now split into three congressional districts (Price, Elmers and Coble), with about half remaining in the new congressional district. Elmers now has all of Sampson County and keeps all of Johnston County, both reliably Republican counties. This district no longer has any of the Franklin County and Nash County precincts, making it a stronger Republican opportunity district. New territory includes precincts in Wake, Cumberland and Wayne. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 2 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 3, currently held by Republican Congressman Walter Jones, will likely always elect Jones as long as he runs. Jones and his father have held this district for over four decades. However, this district is now a swing district that could be won by a strong conservative Democrat once Jones retires. Remember, there are lots of eastern North Carolina “Reagan Democrats” in this district. Democratic registration increases considerably under the new maps from 41% to 49%; Republicans lose market share from 35% to 30%. McCain would still beat Obama in this district by about 56% to 44%. However, Perdue would defeat McCrory under the new maps by 55% to 44%, whereas she beat McCrory in this congressional district in 2008 by 49% to 48.4%.

Key County Changes: Onslow County and almost all of Carteret County, both Republican friendly, have been moved from Jones’ district to McIntyre’s district. Major counties: District 3 has all of Duplin, Jones, Dare, Beaufort and Craven Counties, and substantial parts of Pitt, Nash and Lenoir. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 3 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 4, currently held by Democratic Congressman David Price, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a solid Democratic district where Democrats now have a 35% registration advantage over Republicans (54% Democrats to 19% Republicans, with 27% Unaffiliated).

Key County Changes: Conservative “Reagan Democrats” precincts in northern Orange and northern Durham with a history of voting Republican in federal races have been taken out of Price’s district and moved to Miller’s district. That’s good for Price, a Democrat, and bad for Miller, a Democrat. Precincts in southern Wake County with a history of voting Republican in federal elections have been taken out of Price’s district and put into Republican Renee Elmers’ district, a move that helps both camps. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 4 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 5, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, has a bit fewer Republicans and more Democrats but Republicans still outnumber the loyal opposition and will continue find this district a safe harbor for GOP candidates.

Key County Changes: Although Foxx loses Surry and Stokes counties to Miller, she keeps some of the most Republican districts in the state. Wilkes, Yadkin and Davie counties are 3 of the only 6 counties that voted for Herbert Hoover in 1932! GOP precincts in Rockingham and Forsyth counties have been taken out and put into Miller’s district. Not good for Miller. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 5 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 6, currently held by Republican Congressman Howard Coble, has fewer Republicans and more Democrats but would still choose McCain over Obama by 55% to 44%, whereas under the old configuration McCain defeated Obama by a much wider margin, 63% to 36% (Statewide: Obama 49.7%; McCain 49.4%).

Key County Changes: Coble looses his share of Davidson and Rowan, keeps all of Moore County and much of what he had in Randolph, Guilford and Alamance Counties. He picks up most of Chatham County, almost all of Lee, and portions of Harnett and Cumberland. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 6 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 7, currently held by Democratic Congressman Mike McIntyre, has 9% fewer Democrats but still gives McIntyre a fighting chance. Although McCain defeated Obama here under the old map by 5%, McCain would defeat Obama here under the new maps by 55% to 44%. On the other hand, Perdue would still beat Republican gubernatorial candidate McCrory here by 6 points, but not nearly as bad as the 11 point shellacking she gave him here in 2008. McIntyre maintains a fighting chance.

Key County Changes: Onslow County and almost all of Carteret County (94%), both Republican friendly, have been moved from Jones’ district to McIntyre’s district. Major counties: District 7 has all of Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Onslow and Pender. Democratic-friendly parts of Cumberland, Duplin and Robeson counties have been taken out of this district. McIntyre still has a fighting chance here, but not much more than a fighting chance. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 7 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 8, currently held by Democratic Congressman Larry Kissell, has been reconfigured in such a way that Kissell can no longer win. This district was held by GOP Congressman Hayes for most of the decade. It now has more registered Republicans and fewer Democrats and a shifted from a 52% Obama district to a 44% Obama district. Likewise, it has shifted from a 47% McCrory district to a 53% McCrory district. Gov. Perdue carried this district by 51% in one of the best years for voter registration and turnout of Democrats in modern political history. In the absence of the extraordinary advantage that Democrats enjoyed as a result of the historic campaign of President Obama, this now becomes a very difficult district for them to hold.

Key County Changes: Parts of three strong Republican counties, Randolph, Davidson and Rowan, have been added to House District 8, strengthening the prospects of Republicans regaining their seat once held by GOP Congressman Hayes. Several reliably Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County have been moved into Congressman Mel Watt’s U.S. House District 12, taking “about 37,000 African Americans away from Kissell,” reports the News & Observer/Charlotte Observer. Mecklenburg County had 17% of the district under the old map; only 5.5% under the new map. Cumberland County had 20% of the old district; none of the new district. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 8 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 9, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Myrick, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a GOP stronghold where Republican gubernatorial nominee McCrory, former mayor of Charlotte, won the district with 65% of the vote and would win again with 67% of the vote as it is newly configured.

Key County Changes: Myrick lost friendly precincts in Gaston County to Congressman McHenry. However, that loss is offset by a gain of GOP precincts in northern Mecklenburg County (Town of Davidson), southern Iredell County, and new precincts in northeastern Union County . Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 9 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 10, currently held by Republican Congressman Patrick McHenry, has about 5% fewer Republicans but continues as a GOP stronghold. President Obama would still lose to McCain here by 57% to 42% and Perdue would still lose to McCrory here by about that same margin.

Key County Changes: McHenry picks up all of Gaston County, his home county and solid Republican territory. He loses GOP strongholds Mitchell, Avery and Caldwell, as well as and Burke County, to Shuler’s district. McHenry picks up all of Polk County and the eastern side of Buncombe County, including Asheville. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 10 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 11, currently held by Democratic Congressman Heath Shuler, has now become a safe harbor for Republicans. The anchor for Democrats in this district has always been Buncombe County, particularly Asheville. Not only has half of Buncombe County, including Asheville, been put into Congressman McHenry’s safe Republican district, but several of the most Republican counties in the state have been moved from districts held by Congresswoman Foxx and Congressman McHenry to Heath Shuler’s district. Keep in mind, this district was held by Republican Congressman Charles Taylor for 12 years. It was already a leaning Republican district. Shuler, an exceptionally strong and attractive candidate, has been able to hang onto the seat because he is a great candidate and he votes like a Republican.

Key County Changes: Shular picks up Mitchell, Caldwell, Burke and Avery Counties. All but Burke County are reliably Republican counties. Avery and Mitchell counties are 2 of the 6 counties that voted for Herbert Hoover against Roosevelt in 1932. Now that’s Republican! He loses the eastern half of Buncombe County, including Asheville, and all of Polk County. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 11 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 12, currently held by Democratic Congressman Mel Watt, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a majority-minority district where Democrats have a 64% registration advantage over the meager 16% Republican registration. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 12 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

U.S. House District 13 is currently held by Democratic Congressman Brad Miller. As expected, North Carolina Congressman Miller has been drawn into a district he cannot win. Turnabout is fair play. When he chaired the NC Senate reapportionment committee 10 years ago, he drew himself a congressional district he could not lose. Now he’s in a district he cannot win. Registered Democrats plummeted from 51% to 41% and Republicans increased their ranks from 26% to 37%. Under the current district, Obama received 59% to only 40% for McCain. Under the new map, McCain would beat Obama by 56% to 44%. Amazing! Perdue’s market share plummets under the new map from 57% to 45% while McCrory’s market share increases from 39% to 52%.

Key County Changes: Stokes and Surry counties, both reliably Republican in national elections, have been added to Miller’s district. Reliably Democratic precincts in Guilford County have been removed. Conservative “Reagan Democrats” precincts in northern Alamance, northern Orange and northern Durham counties have been added. Republican precincts in western Guilford County and eastern Forsyth County stay. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.

NOTE: Click here for complete U.S. House District 13 statistics, including population and registration demographics, as well as statewide election results for election years 2004, 2008 and 2010, available on the General Assembly web site.

Surprises & Interesting Notes:

All 13 incumbents still reside in their new districts (no double bunking).
There is no third majority-minority district as many had speculated.
Despite the Republican-friendly change in the rematch in of the congressional districts, one Democrat, North Carolina Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper, would still carry all of them.
The basis of the new map is the old map. At a glance, they look very similar.
The changes in the maps are as politically significant as they are subtle; illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.
Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.

Knowing early how campaigns are likely to end takes the uncertainty out of politics, thereby saving you a lot of your time and your money. That’s what the John Davis Political Report is all about.

- END -

The ½ price July 4^th sale will continue throughout the month. If you are not a subscriber, Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form, or subscribe online to the John Davis Political Report at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

Need a speaker on redistricting? Contact me at www.johndavisconsulting.com/speaker-info

Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Look for the “Donate” button at www.johndavisconsulting.com.

Tagged with: 2012 NC Elections • NC Democrats • NC House • NC Politics • NC Republicans • NC Senate • North Carolina elections • Redistricting

The $1 Billion Question: Can Obama Carry NC in 2012? The images in the campaign kickoff video disclose strategy

by johndavis, April 6, 2011

[Audio clip: view full post to listen] “I don’t agree with Obama on everything, but I respect him and I trust him.” “Ed from North Carolina,” featured in President Obama’s re-election kickoff video, Monday, April 4, 2011 Obama’s 2012 Campaign Strategy Disclosed in Video Released Monday Shhhhhhhhhhh. If you want to get the inside scoop
[More...]

Listen to the John Davis Political Report here

“I don’t agree with Obama on everything, but I respect him and I trust him.”

“Ed from North Carolina,” featured in President Obama’s re-election kickoff video, Monday, April 4, 2011

Obama’s 2012 Campaign Strategy Disclosed in Video Released Monday

Shhhhhhhhhhh. If you want to get the inside scoop on Obama’s 2012 campaign strategy, watch his kickoff video with the sound turned down. The images say it all: a farm, a church, a middle-income neighborhood, an American flag, Ed from North Carolina sitting on his front porch saying, “I don’t agree with Obama on everything, but I respect him and I trust him.” And then there are the mountains out West, a Hispanic family in the kitchen of their home, Obama speaking at a 2008 rally, a TV image of Fox News projecting Obama the winner of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, lots of young people attending volunteer meetings, volunteers registering new voters, canvassing door-to-door for support, and making voter turnout calls from a phone bank.

The Obama campaign kickoff video, released Monday, ends with the theme: It begins with us.

Strategically, it looks like the 2008 massive ground game again. But there’s one thing missing: enthusiastic volunteers. Barack Obama was one of the most inspirational presidential contenders in U.S. history, especially for the 18-29 year-olds who volunteered by the millions to do the hard work of registering voters; volunteers who turned out record numbers of voters on Election Day.

However, in 2009 we discovered that those enthusiastic Obama voters were not loyal Democrats when their failure to turn out led to the defeat of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey. Again, in January 2010, a low turnout of Obama voters led to the shocking loss of Ted Kennedy’s seat to Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts, and a devastating “shellacking” of Democrats last fall throughout the country.

So, why are the Obama strategists introducing their 2012 campaign for re-election with a video that suggests another ground game? The answer is in a dollar figure: $1 billion, the fund-raising goal for the 2012 race. You can buy a whole bunch of enthusiastic workers with $1 billion.

But, Can Obama Raise $1 Billion? “Ummm, this ain’t rocket surgery folks.”

President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign for the White House was a spectacular event. Using his skills honed as an inner city community organizer in Chicago, he won the race with 7 million more popular votes than any candidate in the history of presidential politics, employing 6,000 staffers who managed an all-volunteer army of 13 million enthusiastic workers.

Obama paid for his historic 2008 campaign by raising a $745 million campaign war chest, staggering when compared to the mere $368 million raised by the McCain camp; staggering when you consider that $500 million was raised online, most in increments of $100 or less.

David Plouffe, President Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, revealed their strategic secrets in his book The Audacity to Win. He tells the story of how a startup group of rag tag recruits defeated the dream teams of both the Democrats and the Republicans with a once-in-a-lifetime-candidate, a single powerful message, “Change,” and a website used to organize and communicate with staff and volunteers. Oh, also, a website used to raise money unlike any campaign.

In September 2008 alone, the Obama campaign raised $150 million; $100 million of that had been raised online as a result of 10 fund-raising e-mails. “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,”^{^[1]}wrote Plouffe.

The reason Obama launched his campaign on Monday, April 4, is that by filing papers with the Federal Election Commission he is now allowed to raise money. A New York Times story on Monday titled, Obama Opens 2012 Campaign, With Eye on Money and Independent Voters, says Obama, “… is preparing to undertake the most ambitious fund-raising effort by a sitting president.” What will the money be used for? “The money will not be used for television ads – this year, at least – but rather to hire an army of workers to begin organizing supporters.”

There you have it, a massive ground game. Obama’s role? Run the country and raise money.

Can Obama raise $1 billion? Well, he is starting early, he is the sitting President of the United States, he raised $745 million in 2008, and he is committed to the most ambitious fund-raising effort ever. As my favorite uncle once said, “This ain’t rocket surgery folks.”

We made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina

Throughout the primary, the Obama campaign defied conventional wisdom by targeting those least likely to vote … like younger white voters, independents, newly registered African-American voters, and African-American voters who had voted sporadically in the past.

In North Carolina, they invested heavily in early turnout of non-habitual voters with radio and Internet ads pushing early voting. They also sent e-mail and text messages to tens of thousands urging early voting; they called tens of thousands more and sent volunteers door-to-door.

On May 6, 2008, Primary Election Day exit polling here in North Carolina was so conclusive that the moment the polls closed the national networks declared Obama the winner over Clinton.

Plouffe recalls the 14-point blowout in his book this way: “As the returns came in, we could see the traces of our strategy’s design: by registering over 100,000 new voters, producing strong turnout among African-Americans and young voters, and winning college-educated whites thanks to our stand against the gas tax, we made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina.”^{^[2]}

Obama’s strategy for carrying North Carolina in November of 2008 was as unconventional as that of the May Primary Election. He knew he could not defeat a Republican presidential nominee in the Old North State with TV ads, no matter how much money he spent. His only hope was a massive ground game, registering and turning out non-traditional voters.

To carry out the unconventional strategy, the Obama campaign opened 47 headquarters in North Carolina and hired over 400 paid staff. These young professionals were responsible for a record early voting total of 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004), more voters than on Election Day. Seven out of 10 of the early voters were either Democrats (51%) or Unaffiliated (19%). African Americans comprised 28% of early voters, as compared to only 19% in 2004.

When the dust settled after Election Day, Obama had won North Carolina. For the first time since 1960, North Carolina had elected Democratic sweep to the White House, the Governor’s Mansion and the U.S. Senate in the same election year. An unconventional strategy produced an equally unconventional result: the first African American president, the first woman governor, and the first Democratic woman to represent the state in the U.S. Senate.

The $1 Billion Question: Can Obama Carry NC in 2012?

All of this brings me to the $1 billion question: Can Obama carry NC in 2012?

To answer that question, I need to remind you of this: John McCain was a weak nominee, too old and too boring; associated with one of the most unpopular presidents in U.S. history, and who blundered mightily by waiting until the last month to campaign in North Carolina.

If Republicans make that same mistake again, the answer is “yes,” Obama will surely invest a competitive amount of his $1 billion war chest in winning North Carolina and can surely win again with his unconventional ground game. Slight gains in the nation’s economic condition are beginning to be reported. If the economic trajectory is consistently upward, even if ever so slight, Obama’s job approval will return to 50% and he will win another term.

However, if Republicans field a strong presidential nominee … one who inspires the generosity of Republican donors and raises a conservative army of enthusiastic volunteers who will do the hard work of winning campaigns like registering and turning out voters, then the answer is “no,” Obama will not likely carry North Carolina again … even if he wins a second term handily.

Obama won North Carolina with only 14,177 out of 4.3 million. He did everything right and his opponent did everything wrong. The odds are that will not happen again.

- END -

[1] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, page 327.

[2] The Audacity to Win, page 229.

Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations. Call me if you are interested and I will come visit with you: 919-696-3859.

Sincerely,

John N. Davis, President

Tagged with: Democrat • NC Democrats • NC Political History • NC Politics • NC Republicans • North Carolina elections • President Obama • Women in NC Politics

Caution: NC’s Population Growth Yields Fewer Democrats but More Liberals; More Republicans and Fewer Conservatives

by johndavis, March 3, 2011

[Audio clip: view full post to listen] “If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2011 Political Implications of NC’s 84% Voter
[More...]

Listen to the John Davis Political Report here

“If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2011

Political Implications of NC’s 84% Voter Population Growth Since 1990

Granted, yesterday’s big news that North Carolina’s population has grown 18.5% in one decade is something to write about. However, in order to see just how dramatically we have changed politically you should take a look at the 84% growth in registered voters since 1990.

The 84% growth in registered voters since 1990 has yielded confounding results: the political market share of Democrats has declined by 30%, yet we have twice as many liberals. There are a million more Republicans, yet the market share of conservatives has declined by 20%.

Caution: The greatest political challenge ahead for the new GOP legislative majority is how to initiate conservative solutions to state government problems without alienating the majority of voters who prefer results over party or ideology … voters who are more likely to say that they are “liberal” (17.6%) or “moderate” (37.3%) than “conservative” (41.4%).[i]

Voter population growth yields fewer Democrats: In 1990, there were 3.3 million voters in North Carolina. As of February 26, 2011, there are 6.1 million voters … an 84% increase.

In 1990,[ii] 64% of NC registered voters were Democrats
Today, only 45% of registered voters are Democrats (30% decline)
In 1990, 31% of NC registered voters were Republicans
Today, the Republican share 32% (no change)
In 1990, 6% of NC registered voters were “Unaffiliated”
Today, the “Unaffiliated” registration is 24% (a 400% increase)

Half of NC’s Voters are in 14 Urban Counties

The geography of North Carolina is unchanged. The mountains are still standing where they stood in 1587 when the “Lost Colony” of British immigrants first settled on Roanoke Island. The ocean waves still wash ashore along the coast just like they did in 1781 when North Carolina patriot militiamen defeated Cornwallis at the Battle of Guilford Courthouse during the Revolutionary War. It’s the profile of the people who make up modern day North Carolina that has undergone profound change … change driven by dramatic population growth in the last few decades.

Throughout most of our history, we were a Southern state … rural and conservative. Today, we are more diverse … more like the nation than the South; more urban and ideologically moderate.

Today, half of North Carolina’s 6.1 million voters reside in 14 counties; the other half reside in the other 86 counties. That means that once the new legislative maps are drawn, half of the state Senators and House members will be from 14 counties, the other half from the other 86 counties.

Non-Southern Newcomers Remix Liberals, Moderates, and Conservatives

As to the ideological shift, according to polling and democratic research conducted throughout the past two decades, two-thirds of the newcomers to North Carolina are not from the South. The leading states sending new voters to North Carolina are Pennsylvania, California, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Ohio. Although these new voters have caused the 30% decline in the number of registered Democrats, their predominantly progressive political ideology has led to a doubling of self-described liberals.

Since the early 1990s, while serving as President of NCFREE, I asked the following question in all statewide polls: “For most government policies do you prefer the solutions offered by liberals, moderates, or conservatives?” (If Liberal, ask …) “Would that be very liberal or just liberal?” (If conservative, ask …) “Would that be very conservative or just conservative?”

Prior to 1995, the total “Liberal” was always a single digit number in statewide public opinion polls. In 1995, the total “Liberal” increased to 10.3% (“Liberal” 8.8%; “Very Liberal” 1.5%).[i]

Today, polls show the total self-described liberals in North Carolina consistently closer to 20%, with conservatives around 45% and moderates around 35%.

According to Tom Jensen with Public Policy Polling, their latest North Carolina poll shows 16% of our voters describing themselves as liberal, 40% moderate, and 44% conservative. (For emphasis: 56% NOT claiming to be conservative … in a Republican-friendly year!)

A new study released this week by Gallup shows that based on tracking polls throughout 2010 North Carolina is 41.4% conservative, 37.3% moderate and 17.6% liberal. Only two Southern states are more liberal and less conservative than North Carolina: Florida and Virginia. It’s no coincidence that those three states are the only Southern states carried by President Obama.

Although liberals and moderates combined are already well over half of all voters, their share of voters in urban areas increases considerably. Restated for emphasis: Half of all voters in North Carolina’s 100 counties live in 14 urban counties. These 14 counties were carried by the Obama/Biden ticket with 1,027,114 votes to only 692,939 for the GOP McCain/Palin ticket.

Conservative Governance of a Moderate, Battleground State

As stated at the outset, the greatest political challenge ahead for the new GOP legislative majority is how to initiate conservative solutions to state government problems without alienating the majority of voters who prefer results over party or ideology … voters who are more likely to say that they are “liberal” or “moderate” than “conservative”.[i]

Karl Rove writes in today’s Wall Street Journal, “If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Rove concludes, “Americans today want to know what steps Republicans will take to create more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity.”

There you have it. The way to meet the challenge of governing as a conservative in a moderate state is to stay keenly focused on what North Carolinians want … the same thing all Americans want, “more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity.”

- END -

[i] NCFREE statewide survey of 800 registered voters in North Carolina conducted between the dates of February 27 – March 3, 1995. The survey is based upon actual telephone interviews with registered voters.

[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx

[iii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx

[iv] 1990 voter registration numbers are from the State Board of Elections. My sincere thanks to Jacque Blaeske who took the time to find them and send them to me.

- END -

Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.

Subscribe today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

Sincerely,

John N. Davis, President

Tagged with: 2012 NC Elections • NC Census • NC Democrats • NC General Assembly • NC House • NC Republicans • NC Senate • North Carolina elections

What’s a Republican to do About the Selection of Charlotte for the Democratic National Convention in 2012?

by johndavis, February 22, 2011

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [Audio clip: view full post to listen] “NC’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s reelection bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete
[More...]

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary

Listen to the John Davis Political Report here

“NC’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s reelection bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete in the changing global marketplace.” Associated Press, February 2, 2011

A Model of Innovation and Global Competitiveness … or Algorithmic Voodoo?

A headline in the Wall Street Journal, Feb. 2, 2011, read, “Democrats’ 2012 Convention Plan Aims to Keep North Carolina Blue.” The story suggested that Charlotte was selected to host the DNC’s national convention in order to send a signal to the political community that President Obama’s target map is not shrinking. The President’s campaign team wants to show that they are confident of repeat wins in historically red states like North Carolina, Indiana and Virginia.

That’s all well and good, but I believe that there is an even more important reason for choosing Charlotte: North Carolina. It’s not just Charlotte, it’s our state. Our state represents Obama’s vision of the new model when it comes to innovation and global competitiveness. North Carolina may have been “First in Flight” in the 20^th Century, but our growing reputation in the 21^st Century is “First in Innovation,” an outgrowth of being “First in Business.”

From Forbes to Site Selection magazine, North Carolina has been recognized as having the “Best Business Climate” year after year for a decade. Democrats beam with pride when they see those national awards of distinction handed to our state. However, Republicans act as if the criteria for identifying our exceptional competitive qualities are based on algorithmic voodoo.

What’s a Republican to Do?

What is a Republican to do? Last fall, North Carolina voters elected Republicans to shore up the long-term prospects of maintaining the state’s favorable business climate by restoring financial health and efficient delivery of governmental services. Those two qualities, financial health and efficient delivery of services, have fallen by the wayside due to unilateral state budget power over too long a period of time by those who put the Democratic Party ahead of the fiscal integrity of the state and the character of its leaders.

Voters are now counting on Republicans to take ownership of our state’s business climate, and to stake a claim for a fair share of all things positive in our state … including the positive qualities like our model business climate that led to the selection of our state as the host state for the Democratic National Convention.

Sharing the Credit for a Business Climate that is the Envy of the Nation

So, before you GOPers start grousing over the positive commentary on the selection of Charlotte for the DNC national confab in 2012, please remember that the mayor of Charlotte during most of the dynamic growth since 1995 was a Republican named Pat McCrory.

Over the past four decades, millions of Republican business leaders and Republican employees have helped build great companies and communities in North Carolina. They, right along with Democratic business leaders and Democratic employees … and Independent business leaders and Independent employees … helped make our state’s business climate the envy of the nation.

Take a look at the lists of high praise below and give some thought about whether these honors would have come to North Carolina without the hard work and good successes of all of us.

North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2010

No. 1 Best Business Climate 9 of the last 10 years, Site Selection magazine, November
No. 2 Best State for Business by CEO’s, Chief Executive magazine, May/June
No. 3 Best State for Business, Forbes, October
No. 3 State for In-migration, United Van Lines Migration Study
No. 4 America’s Top States for Business survey, CNBC, July
No. 5 Pro-Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate
No. 7 Best-Performing City: Raleigh-Cary area, Milken Institute, October
Raleigh, Charlotte and Durham Forbes list of Best Places for Business and Careers

North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2009

No. 1 Best Business Climate 8 of the last 9 years, Site Selection magazine, November
No. 2 Most Competitive State, Site Selection, May
No. 2 Best State for Business by CEOs, Chief Executive magazine, February
No. 3 Pro-Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate, June
No. 5, Forbes Best States for Business, September
No. 8, Top States for Nanotechnology, August, 2009 (Raleigh No. 4 for Nano Metros)
No. 9, America’s Top States for Business study, CNBC, July (No. 2 for Workforce)
Next Cities list of 60 U.S. Hotspots for Young, Talented Workers : Charlotte under “Super Cities”; Durham under “Midsize Magnets”; Cary under “Mighty Micros.”
4 N.C. cities on CNNMoney.com best places for small business startups, Oct. 13
Best Places for Business and Careers: No. 1 Raleigh, No. 3 Durham, No. 6 Asheville, No. 13 Wilmington, No. 18 Winston-Salem and No. 19 Charlotte (in the “Best Metros” category); and No. 2 Greenville (in the “Best Small Metros” category), Forbes, March

North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2008

No. 1 Best Business Climate 7 of last 8 years, Site Selection magazine, November
No. 1 State with Small Metropolitan Areas Having the Most New and Expanded Corporate Facilities, Site Selection magazine, March
No. 1 Pro Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate, Inc. study
No. 2 Best Business Climate, Development Counselors International (DCI), July
No. 3 Most Competitive State, Site Selection, May
No. 3 Largest Biotech Industry of U.S. States, Beyond Borders, Ernst & Young
No. 4 for Biotech Strength in Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, Business Facilities, July
No. 4 Best State for Business, Forbes magazine, July
No. 6 America’s Top States for Business study, CNBC, July

NC’s Industrial Transformation, the Centerpiece of the Democrats’ Re-election bid

Today, North Carolinians are younger, smarter, and more urban/suburban than they were 10 years ago according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Our 18.5% growth has also created greater diversity. North Carolinians are just as likely to be from somewhere else USA; our demographic profile is more like the nation than the South. As Ferrel Guillory, Director of The Program on Public Life at UNC Chapel Hill, wrote in his essay North Carolina: she ain’t what she used to be, “The state has transformed from biracial to multi-cultural.” Why? Economic opportunity.

North Carolina is one of the emerging states that best exemplifies the message of change that Obama won on in 2008. That’s the thematic reason we were chosen to host the Democrats next September. Young, smart, diverse … first in innovation, leading the way in economic recovery and business investment.

Granted, the commitment by Duke Energy’s CEO Jim Rogers to raise the necessary $37 million to host the event was a critical factor; and, the fact that Charlotte’s new Democratic Mayor Anthony Foxx is tight with the President helped a bit. Ummmmm, and then there is the prospect of a late-night, one-on-one game with Michael Jordan. But none of that would have mattered if North Carolina had not developed into one of the most dynamic places in the world to live, learn, work, raise a family … and make money; one of a handful of states “leading the comeback from the worst recession since the 1930s,” according to an analysis by USA Today.

Associated Press writer Liz Sidoti said it best in her February 1, 2011 story titled, Dems choose Charlotte for 2012 convention. Sidoti wrote, “With the economy certain to dominate Obama’s re-election bid, North Carolina’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s re-election bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete in the changing global marketplace.”

Will Obama Win NC Again? Will the GOP Hold the Legislative Majority?

As the Wall Street Journal story “Democrats’ 2012 Convention Plan Aims to Keep North Carolina Blue” suggested, Charlotte was selected to host the DNC’s national convention to send a signal to the political community that President Obama’s target map is not shrinking.

What are Obama’s prospects for winning North Carolina in 2012? Well, half of all voters in our 100 counties live in 14 urban counties. These 14 counties were carried by the Obama/Biden ticket with 1,027,114 votes to only 692,939 for the GOP presidential ticket of McCain/Palin.

Those 1,027,114 voters who supported Obama/Biden in 2008 still live here, and they are still more likely to support Democrats. It’s an urban thing; same throughout the US.

However, in 2010, independent suburban voters, along with conservative Democrats and loyal Republicans, gave the North Carolina GOP a majority in the state Senate and state House of Representatives. Those voters still live here too.

Whether North Carolinians will give Obama another win in 2012 is uncertain. The more important question is will North Carolinians give Republicans another opportunity to lead the state following the 2012 elections. That is equally uncertain.

What is certain is that Republican odds will improve if they begin to see the state the way everyone else in the country sees North Carolina: youthful and innovative, diverse, leading the way to a globally competitive citizenry … an exemplary state with a business climate that is the envy of the nation … a state fitting for a national political convention.

- END -

Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.

The Advantage subscription will give you a greater sense of certainty about the politics of 2012 … earlier than anyone else. More specifically, my goal is to give you the advantage that comes from knowing the likely outcome of primary and general election races months in advance in order that you might plan ahead and invest effectively.

Subscribe today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

Sincerely,

John N. Davis, President

Tagged with: 2012 NC Elections • Charlotte Democratic Nat'l Convention • NC Democrats • NC House • NC Republicans • NC Senate • North Carolina elections

No Political Party Has a Predictable Advantage in NC; Charlotte Convention Means Obama is Back in 2012

by johndavis, February 2, 2011

“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention Key Dates in 2012 Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!) Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa
[More...]

“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention

Key Dates in 2012

Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!)
Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012
Republican National Convention in Tampa August 27, 2012
Democratic National Convention in Charlotte September 3, 2012
General Election Day is November 6, 2012

No political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina … period.

North Carolina became a presidential battleground state in 2008 with President Obama’s historic win. It continues as a battleground state, despite the GOP takeover of the General Assembly.

Any hope among Republicans that they could gain an early advantage in the 2012 elections by parlaying their exclusive legislative power into unilateral political power has been dashed by the selection of Charlotte as the geographical center of President Obama’s campaign for reelection.

President Obama likes North Carolina. He came here 8 times in 2008 after his nomination in Denver. He vacationed here with his family in 2010. Last month he made a major policy speech at Forsyth Tech. And now, Charlotte has been selected as the host city for the Democratic National Convention.

“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink,” a senior Democratic official told ABC News. “President Obama will be very active in North Carolina and … despite what some have speculated, we are going to go as big in 2012 as we did in 2008 — and that means fighting hard for North Carolina, Virginia and all the states and more that helped elect President Obama in the first place.”

It is precisely because no political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina that you need to subscribe to the John Davis Political Report.

No one called the legislative races earlier or more accurately last year. I projected the winner in 47 of 47 NC Senate races (3 races were toss ups), and correctly projected the winner in 111 of 115 NC House races (five races were toss ups). Since the last census, I have correctly projected 1100 of 1144 races in North Carolina … thanks in great part to my analysis of the districts.

I do not lobby, so I have no hesitation with writing objectively and boldly about the political mistakes of legislative leaders and the other factors that drive elections.

I do not have a partisan bias. My value as a political analyst and commentator is in having someone other than a party loyalist keeping you informed about the job party leaders are doing and the implications of their actions, good and bad, for election results in 2012.

I am not a political campaign consultant, so I have no conflict of interest in assessing the strengths of candidates and the status of political races.

Maps do not a majority make

New legislative and congressional districts will be mapped this year, with Republicans in charge for the first time since the 19th Century. Although you can count on Republicans to draw lines that favor their interests, there are many political forces far more important than the maps that I will be investigating on your behalf … like the 2012 battlefield leadership teams, the money, the strengths/weaknesses of the candidates and their consultants, President Obama’s decisions, the economy, unity/disunity among party leaders in North Carolina, political blunders, renegade uprisings, third-party organizations, the presidential and gubernatorial races, and the unforeseen local, state, national and international events of the day that always come along and shift the probability of success to one group of candidates over the other.

Democrats have been winning in Republican districts for decades because of the strengths and commitment of their leaders; because they recruited better candidates, raised more money and hired the best political professionals in the nation … and they worked harder, at least up until 2010 when all of those traditional Democratic strengths, including leaders, money, candidates and professionals, were seized by Republicans.

Who will seize the advantages of leadership, money, candidates and professional talent?

In 2010, I made the case that Democrats were less competitive due to events that had nothing to do with Republicans: like a shakeup of key legislative leaders due to retirements; a failed recruitment effort that left 11 Senate Republicans unchallenged and 29 House Republicans unchallenged; the disruption of corruption scandals; the overall dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and nation at a time when Democrats had all of the power; a disillusioned and unenthusiastic base; the loss of independent voters; a loss of confidence in President Obama, and the absence of a major investment in voter registration, turnout and straight-party voting as seen in 2008 when the Obama camp spent $ millions in NC.

Democratic loyalists would not have given you an accurate assessment of their political liabilities in 2010, and Republican loyalists are not going to give you an accurate assessment of their liabilities during the 2011-2012 election cycle.

This is where I come in. The weekly John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle, as well as the partisan momentum tracking in the Late Breaking Trends report, is available to you with the Premium subscription for $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.

The Advantage subscription will give you a greater sense of certainty about the politics of 2012 … earlier than anyone else. More specifically, my goal is to give you the advantage that comes from knowing the likely outcome of primary and general election races months in advance in order that you might plan ahead and invest effectively.

Subscribe today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

Sincerely,

John N. Davis, President

- END -

Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

PLEASE URGE YOUR ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE!

Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Advisory Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Tagged with: 2012 NC Elections • Charlotte Democratic Nat'l Convention • NC Democrats • NC House • NC Republicans • NC Senate • North Carolina elections

The Fall of the Basnight/Rand Empire and the Rise of a New Generation of United, Savvy Republican Leaders … Who can Raise Money

by johndavis, December 8, 2010

Post: December 7, 2010 Volume III, No. 2 “I can’t control my caucus anymore.” NC Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, Sited in John Davis Political Report, Volume II, No. 8, December 10, 2009 NOTE: For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking
[More...]

Post: December 7, 2010 Volume III, No. 2

“I can’t control my caucus anymore.” NC Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, Sited in John Davis Political Report, Volume II, No. 8, December 10, 2009

NOTE: For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking on this link: www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe

After selecting the “Sign UP” button, you will be directed to the PayPal site. Look at the bottom of the page for: “No PayPal account? Pay using your credit or debit card.”

Call me if you wish to discuss an advisory relationship 919-696-3859.

If you prefer to process an invoice, click here.

A Political Wave Does Not a Majority Make

Many assert that the Republican “Wave” of 2010 was the reason that North Carolina Republicans won the majority in both chambers of the General Assembly on November 2, a first since 1898. Well, if all it takes is a GOP “Wave,” then why haven’t Republicans won the majority in the North Carolina General Assembly more often than the one time in 1994 … during a stretch of 112 years? Why is it that only two other states, Oregon and Washington, have an undefeated run of Democratic governors as long as North Carolina?

Sorry, a wave does not a majority make.

The Republican “wave” that swept the U.S. this fall presented a wonderful opportunity for Republicans to achieve historic gains in North Carolina … but nothing more than a wonderful opportunity. Democrats have always been able to beat back the national Republican wave election years because of money, savvy and unity … aided by underfunded Republican candidates and Republican Party disunity.

In 2010, the Republican and Democratic caucus strengths were reversed. It was the Democrats who began to self destruct. Republicans seized that opportunity by doing everything right while the Democrats were doing the most important things wrong.

The potential for Republicans to hold the majority long term has nothing to do with “wave” elections, it is great because they have gotten very good at winning campaigns.

Divided Democratic Leadership Led by Inexperienced War Generals

The NC Senate Democratic Caucus started down the road to defeat on November 17, 2009, a year before the 2010 elections. That was the day Sen. Martin Nesbitt (D-Buncombe) was elected Majority Leader following the abrupt resignation of long-time Majority Leader and Rules Chairman Sen. Tony Rand (D-Cumberland).

Rand was a great war general; Nesbitt was not.

The historic era of unparalleled power of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight came to an end that day. Basnight began to tell his friends, “I can’t control my caucus anymore.” A new era of Senate leadership began, an era led by seasoned urban lawyers with unquestionable public policy credentials … but not political combat credentials.

Marc Basnight and Tony Rand were unquestionably two of the most powerful legislative leaders in state history … powerful because they knew how to win campaigns even during GOP wave years. However, they wielded their power with such ruthless efficiency that over time they made lots of enemies … including in their own caucus. The little known fact outside the Raleigh beltline is that Basnight and Rand were slowly becoming a minority in their majority caucus.

Basnight and his inner circle were business owners. Their fatal flaw was the failure to see the value in maintaining a base of philosophical allies in their caucus by recruiting and helping elect other Democratic business owners.

And so, imperceptibly over time, a liberal coalition of Senate Democrats grew in number and coalesced to create its own force, a mutinous force that became stronger than that of the leaders Basnight and Rand.

Thus, the fall of the Basnight/Rand Empire … and with it, a divided caucus led by inexperienced political war generals. They were doomed a year ago.

United Republican Leadership Led by Seasoned War Generals Who Can Raise Money

By 2008, Senate Republicans and their political team under the leadership of Phil Berger from Eden had become seasoned political combat veterans. They had become so good that they would have won a majority of seats in the North Carolina Senate, during one of the worst years for Republicans in modern political history, if it were not for the unity, savvy and especially the fundraising prowess of the Basnight/Rand political machine.

Senate Democrats were forced to spend an average of $500,000 per competitive race just to fend off Republicans who spent a third of that. That’s how effective Republican leaders, their political staff and their consultants had become at winning campaigns. They were a serious political threat even during a Democratic “Wave” … long before the GOP wave came along.

Among House Republicans, a strong political war general was needed. In 2010, that leader emerged in the name of Thom Tillis, a two-term member of the House from Huntersville. Tillis joined Skip Stam from Apex in what has become a powerful force with a working relationship that has the long-term potential equal to that of Basnight and Rand. They are competent, intelligent, politically savvy, and committed to the state … with a priority of restoring the state’s economic vitality. Oh, and they can raise money!

“We went in united, we came out united.”

Most importantly, Stam and Tillis are united.

I asked a House member to tell me about the Republican House Caucus meeting held a couple of weeks ago during which Skip Stam and Thom Tillis vied against each other for the position of Speaker. That member said, “We went in united, we came out united … thanks to the way Skip Stam and Thom Tillis conducted themselves.” That speaks well for long-term majority status for Republicans in the North Carolina House.

And speaking of the importance of unity and political warfare experience, the role played by NC GOP Party Chair Tom Fetzer in 2009 and 2010 cannot be overstated. A party with a history of being divided, conservative versus moderates, came together under the leadership of Fetzer. Fetzer not only brought unity to the GOP this election cycle, he brought political savvy and fundraising skills from his years as Mayor of Raleigh and as a political consultant.

Fetzer’s rallying theme for the 2010 elections: “One Team, One Goal, Victory.” Unity, savvy and successful fundraising is why Republicans won in 2010. Otherwise, 2010 would have been just another Republican “wave” year written off as a just another missed opportunity.

Don’t Dismiss the Significance of the GOP Commitment

To suggest that “the wave” alone would have carried the GOP into power in 2010 not only flies in the face of NC history, it dismisses the significance of the GOP commitment.

It dismisses the significance of a leave-it-all-on-the-battlefield 18-month commitment of time and energy by an atypically savvy and united group of NC Republican party leaders and their exceptional staff;
It dismisses the significance of an atypically savvy and united Senate and House Republican caucus leadership team and their exceptional political staff;
It dismisses the definitive value of the thousands of volunteers who manned the phone banks for months making 2 million calls so they would not be beat this year in the early voting turnout;
It dismisses the extraordinary class of candidates who neglected their families and risked their personal resources while working the campaign trail to exhaustion day after week after month after month … nights and weekends;
It dismisses the significance of thousands of new contributors to Republican candidates and the hard work of those who took the time to work the phones raising the money;
It dismisses the significance of new independent expenditure groups that followed the 2008 labor union play book with a partisan investment of millions;
It dismisses the significance of the fact that through mid-October, Republican fundraising was UP twice as much as in 2008 while Democrats were DOWN $2 million;
It dismisses the significance of the Tea Partiers and all of those rallies held all over the state … rallies organized by organizations like Americans for Prosperity and Civitas … rallies that would not have happened if it were not for committed and hard-working staff;
It dismisses the significance of the value of 60 polls made public by organizations like Civitas, Carolina Strategy Group and Public Policy Polling … and groups like the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation who compiled political research for easy access;
It dismisses the significance of the value of organizations like the John Locke Foundation that was a constant source of misery for Gov. Perdue and the Democratic establishment, keeping them tripped up with their effective investigative reporting and in-your-face news releases;
It dismisses the significance of the constant drum beat of conservative thought pushed into the public conscience by talk radio, Fox News and a gazillion conservative publications and web sites.

Republicans in other states may have inadvertently won the power because of the national wave. Here in North Carolina, the “wave” was nothing more than an opportunity.

Republicans seized that opportunity by doing everything right while the Democrats were doing the most important things wrong. The potential for Republicans to hold the majority long term has nothing to do with “wave” elections, it is great because they have gotten very good at winning campaigns.

Well, there you have it, the John Davis Political Report for Tuesday, December 7, 2010.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

For those of you who are subscribers, I thank you so much for supporting my work.

For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Subscription, or $4,850 for the Advantage Subscription that includes an advisory relationship.

“As a former member of the North Carolina House, Senate and Executive Branch of North Carolina government, I would not want to be without the John Davis Political Report – a must for those that love the political arena and our state!” Glenn Jernigan, Glenn Jernigan & Associates

“I am frequently asked to identify the brightest political mind in North Carolina. Even before his amazingly accurate and perceptive views on the historic 2010 election, I always responded, “JOHN DAVIS.” Now I doubt anyone will have to ask me because John’s political forecasting, along with his rationale, received widespread attention every day during the final months of the campaign.” Phil Kirk, President/CEO Emeritus, North Carolina Chamber; Chairman Emeritus, State Board of Education; Director, Brady Energy Services

“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics

“Just straight up, fact-based, analysis.” Richard H. Moore, Treasurer, North Carolina, 2000 – 2008

“John Davis was right, he was early, and he made the bold calls publicly with political evidence. There was no need for a crystal ball; he simply used history, common sense and solid political science. He called the legislative ‘flip’ to GOP control earlier than any other analyst.” Bill Weatherspoon, American Petroleum Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina

- END -

Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

PLEASE URGE YOUR ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE!

Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Advisory Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Tagged with: 2010 elections • GOP Majority • Liberal • Marc Basnight • Martin Nesbitt • NC Democrats • NC House • NC Republicans • NC Senate • North Carolina elections • Phil Berger • Skip Stam • Thom Tillis • Tom Fetzer • Unemployment

Stephenson v. Bartlett – The Forgotten Reason Why the NC GOP Won the Majority in 2010

by johndavis, December 8, 2010

Post: December 2, 2010 Volume III, No. 1 “According to Davis, the number of Senate seats competitive for both major political parties has dropped from 14 out of 50 under the 1992 Senate Plan to only 6 out of 50 under the 2001 Senate Plan. Similarly, Davis asserts that the number of competitive House seats
[More...]

Post: December 2, 2010 Volume III, No. 1

“According to Davis, the number of Senate seats competitive for both major political parties has dropped from 14 out of 50 under the 1992 Senate Plan to only 6 out of 50 under the 2001 Senate Plan. Similarly, Davis asserts that the number of competitive House seats has dropped from 32 out of 120 under the 1992 House Plan to only 14 out of 120 under the 2001 House Plan.” NC Supreme Court opinion, Stephenson v. Bartlett, citing deposition of John Davis, NCFREE Executive Director

NOTE: For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking on this link: www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe

After selecting the “Sign UP” button, you will be directed to the PayPal site. Look at the bottom of the page for: “No PayPal account? Pay using your credit or debit card.”

Call me if you wish to discuss: 919-696-3859.

If you prefer to process an invoice, click here.

Stephenson v. Bartlett – The Forgotten Reason Why the NC GOP Won the Majority in 2010

One month ago today, November 2, 2010, North Carolina Republicans made history by winning the majority of the seats in the state Senate and House of Representatives. There are three primary reasons the GOP prevailed:

Weak and divided Democratic leadership which lost the campaign $ advantage … during a GOP wave election year.
Strong and united Republican leadership which achieved campaign $ parity … during a GOP wave election year.
Stephenson v. Bartlett case of 2002 that led to a leveling of partisan districts

The Stephenson v. Bartlett case is the historic redistricting decision handed down by the NC Supreme Court in 2002 that threw out the brazenly gerrymandered maps drawn by legislative Democrats after the 2000 census. That case led to the leveling of the partisan playing field throughout the decade.

Without Stephenson v. Bartlett, the number of state senate and house districts drawn to favor Democrats would likely have been too great to overcome, even in 2010 with a strong Republican leadership team and GOP-friendly momentum.

I had the pleasure of serving as an impartial witness in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case in 2002, and was honored that my testimony was cited in the written opinion of the NC Supreme Court. Here are the facts before and after Stephenson v. Bartlett:

NC Senate Democrats from 12-Seat Advantage to 0-Seat Advantage

In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 28 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 16 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
After the judicially mandated remapping of districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a total loss of the advantage for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.

NC House Democrats from 12-Seat Advantage to 4-Seat DISADVANTAGE

In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 59 House districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 47 House districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts. There were 14 swing House districts.
After judicially mandated remapping the districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 51 districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 55 districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net loss of 16 districts favoring Democrats when adding the net advantage for Republicans of 4 districts. There were still 14 swing districts.

So how is it that Democrats have been able to maintain power with a level playing field? The short answer is lots of money and a strong political leadership team. Democrats have been masters at parlaying their power into a 70-to-30 campaign spending advantage. They have also been masters at the fundamentals of winning campaigns. For many years I have referred to the Senate Democratic Caucus as the national model state legislative political war machine.

However, if you take away their strong Democratic leadership team and their financial advantage, they are left with a level political playing field thanks to the Stephenson v. Bartlett case. That’s what happened this year.

What made 2010 politically catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that they had to deal with an era of corrupt leaders, a Republican-friendly year, a weak governor, a high turnover of incumbents, an unpopular president, state budget problems, a national economic slump, anti-establishment voters, the Tea Party movement, low enthusiasm, low turnout of their base, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, record deficit spending, an unpopular war, a surge in opposition strength, and a loss of the campaign $ advantage … all at the same time.

Meanwhile, Republicans united for the first time as political pragmatists who finally accepted the fact that you can’t govern if you don’t win and you can’t win without money. Voila!

My sincerest congratulations to the Republican Party leadership and staff, to the GOP Senate Caucus leadership and staff, to the GOP House Caucus leadership and staff, and to all of you Republicans in North Carolina who have been denied the opportunity to have your ideas debated because of heavy-handed Democratic leadership who sent them to the Rules Committee for an early demise.

I hope that Republicans will do a better job than the Democrats at respecting the diversity of opinion in North Carolina …respecting diversity of opinion not just tolerating diversity of opinion. When it comes to conservative ideology, North Carolina’s liberal Democrats have a history of intolerance equal in every way to intolerant conservatives.

Speaking of respecting diversity of opinion, perhaps the greatest takeaway from the 2010 election cycle is: ignore the priorities of voters at your own peril. Both parties have had to learn that lesson the hard way during this decade.

Well, there you have it. This is the first John Davis Political Report of the 2011-2012 election cycle.

For those of you who are subscribers, I thank you so much for supporting my work.

For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking on this link: www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe

If you prefer to process an invoice, click here.

If you would like for me to work with you as an objective political trends advisor during the next two years, please subscribe to the Advantage Annual Subscription at $4,850

If you prefer to process an invoice, click here.

May you have the happiest of times with your family in the coming weeks!

“As a former member of the North Carolina House, Senate and Executive Branch of North Carolina government, I would not want to be without the John Davis Political Report – a must for those that love the political arena and our state!” Glenn Jernigan, Glenn Jernigan & Associates

“I am frequently asked to identify the brightest political mind in North Carolina. Even before his amazingly accurate and perceptive views on the historic 2010 election, I always responded, “JOHN DAVIS.” Now I doubt anyone will have to ask me because John’s political forecasting, along with his rationale, received widespread attention every day during the final months of the campaign.” Phil Kirk, President/CEO Emeritus, North Carolina Chamber; Chairman Emeritus, State Board of Education; Director, Brady Energy Services

“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics

“Just straight up, fact-based, analysis.” Richard H. Moore, Treasurer, North Carolina, 2000 – 2008

“John Davis was right, he was early, and he made the bold calls publicly with political evidence. There was no need for a crystal ball; he simply used history, common sense and solid political science. He called the legislative ‘flip’ to GOP control earlier than any other analyst.” Bill Weatherspoon, American Petroleum Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina

- END -

Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

PLEASE URGE YOUR ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE!

Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Advisory Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Tagged with: 2010 elections • GOP Majority • NC Democrats • NC House • NC Republicans • NC Senate • NC Supreme Court • North Carolina elections • Reapportionment • Redistricting

Investors Political Daily – Wednesday, Nov. 3, 2010 – Republicans Win Historic Majorities in NC Senate and House

by johndavis, November 3, 2010

“The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is,
[More...]

“The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…” John Davis Political Report, Election Day, Nov. 2, 2010

SPECIAL EDITION: Late Breaking Trends & Investors Political Daily

North Carolina Election Results Combined Edition

Republicans Win Historic Majorities in NC Senate and House

Senate: 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats; House: 67 Republicans, 52 Democrats, 1 Unaffiliated

Post: Wednesday, November 3, 2010

For the first time since 1898, North Carolina Republicans have won majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.

In the 50-member state Senate, Republicans picked up 11 seats currently held by Democrats to seize a 31 seat advantage over 19 seats for the Democrats. No Republican incumbent lost.

Click here to review the final Investors Political Daily NC Senate report with the “Winner” designated for each race.

John Davis Political Report Accurately Projected 100% of NC Senate Races

The John Davis Political Report accurately forecasted 100% of the NC Senate races. Here are the highlights:

As forecasted, the NC Senate will have a Republican majority for the first time since 1898.
As forecasted, Democrats won all 16 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
As forecasted, Democrats won the 1 race in which they were projected as “Favored.”
As forecasted, Republicans won 11 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
As forecasted, Republicans won all 7 races in which they were projected as “Favored”
Republicans won two of the three “Toss up” races, including the race for the seat held by former Sen. Tony Rand in Cumberland County (now held by appointee Margaret Dickson), and the seat held by retiring Sen. Charlie Albertson in Duplin, Lenoir and Sampson Counties.
The 11 seats currently held by Democrats that were won by Republicans are: Margaret Dickson, Cumberland (Tony Rand’s old seat); Charlie Albertson, Duplin; R.C. Soles, Columbus; Julia Boseman, New Hanover; Don Davis, Green; Tony Foriest, Alamance; Steve Goss, Watauga; Joe Sam Queen, Haywood; John Snow, Cherokee; David Hoyle, Gaston; and A.B. Swindell, Nash.

To review the vote tallies for individual races, go to the State Board of Elections website.

John Davis Political Report Accurately Projected 97% of NC House Races

In the 120-member state House, Republicans picked up 15 seats held by Democrats.

Click here to review the final Investors Political Daily NC House report with the “Winner” designated for each race. To review the vote tallies for individual races, go to the State Board of Elections website.

The John Davis Political Report accurately forecasted 97% of the NC House races, missing only 4 out of 120. Here are the highlights:

As forecasted, the NC House will have a GOP majority for the first time since 1999.
As forecasted, Democrats won all 28 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
Democrats won 9 of the 12 races in which they were projected as “Favored.” I did not anticipate that Douglas Young, John May and Lorene Coates would lose.
As forecasted, Republicans won 22 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
Republicans won 12 of the 13 races in which they were projected as “Favored.” The House 44 race between Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland, and Johnny Dawkins, D-Cumberland was won by Parfitt.
Republicans won 1 of the 5 “Toss up” races, with Bill Cook defeating Arthur Williams.
Nelson Cole was defeated by his Unaffiliated challenger Bert Jones.
Three toss up races were won by Democrats Marian McLawhorn, Grier Martin and Rick Glazier.
The 15 seats currently held by Democrats that were won by Republicans are: Arthur Williams, Nelson Cole, Douglas Yongue, John May, Lorene Coates, Alice Graham Underhill, Russell Tucker, Van Braxton, Randy Stewart, Chris Heagarty, Jimmy Love, Hugh Holliman, Cullie Tarleton, Bob England, Jane Whilden.

Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.

What made 2010 politically catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that 10 major political liabilities unfolded at the same time. Here are the Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010. They are in the form of titles to previous editions of the John Davis Political Report.

#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates

#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb

#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame

#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending

#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the “Safety” Automaker; Perdue the “Ethics” Governor

#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy

#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American

#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened

#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative

#10: Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment

Yesterday, Election Day, I concluded my report this way: The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…”

Now, in the aftermath of yesterday’s elections, you know why.

I hope that you have enjoyed the John Davis Political Report this election cycle.

- END -

Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.

Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Tuesday, November 2, 2010.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

PLEASE URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!

In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily. I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:

Individual Subscription $48.50 Annual Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Tagged with: 2010 elections • Late Breaking Trends • Liberal • Martin Nesbitt • NC Democrats • NC Republicans • North Carolina elections • President Obama • SEIU • Service Employees International Union • Underemployment • Unemployment

Late Breaking Trends – Wednesday, Nov. 3, 2010 – Republicans Win Historic Majorities in NC Senate and House

by johndavis, November 3, 2010

“The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is,
[More...]

“The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…” John Davis Political Report, Election Day, Nov. 2, 2010

SPECIAL EDITION: Late Breaking Trends & Investors Political Daily

North Carolina Election Results Combined Edition

Republicans Win Historic Majorities in NC Senate and House

Senate: 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats; House: 67 Republicans, 52 Democrats, 1 Unaffiliated

Post: Wednesday, November 3, 2010

For the first time since 1898, North Carolina Republicans have won majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.

In the 50-member state Senate, Republicans picked up 11 seats currently held by Democrats to seize a 31 seat advantage over 19 seats for the Democrats. No Republican incumbent lost.

Click here to review the final Investors Political Daily NC Senate report with the “Winner” designated for each race.

John Davis Political Report Accurately Projected 100% of NC Senate Races

The John Davis Political Report accurately forecasted 100% of the NC Senate races. Here are the highlights:

As forecasted, the NC Senate will have a Republican majority for the first time since 1898.
As forecasted, Democrats won all 16 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
As forecasted, Democrats won the 1 race in which they were projected as “Favored.”
As forecasted, Republicans won 11 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
As forecasted, Republicans won all 7 races in which they were projected as “Favored”
Republicans won two of the three “Toss up” races, including the race for the seat held by former Sen. Tony Rand in Cumberland County (now held by appointee Margaret Dickson), and the seat held by retiring Sen. Charlie Albertson in Duplin, Lenoir and Sampson Counties.
The 11 seats currently held by Democrats that were won by Republicans are: Margaret Dickson, Cumberland (Tony Rand’s old seat); Charlie Albertson, Duplin; R.C. Soles, Columbus; Julia Boseman, New Hanover; Don Davis, Green; Tony Foriest, Alamance; Steve Goss, Watauga; Joe Sam Queen, Haywood; John Snow, Cherokee; David Hoyle, Gaston; and A.B. Swindell, Nash.

To review the vote tallies for individual races, go to the State Board of Elections website.

John Davis Political Report Accurately Projected 97% of NC House Races

In the 120-member state House, Republicans picked up 15 seats held by Democrats.

Click here to review the final Investors Political Daily NC House report with the “Winner” designated for each race. To review the vote tallies for individual races, go to the State Board of Elections website.

The John Davis Political Report accurately forecasted 97% of the NC House races, missing only 4 out of 120. Here are the highlights:

As forecasted, the NC House will have a GOP majority for the first time since 1999.
As forecasted, Democrats won all 28 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
Democrats won 9 of the 12 races in which they were projected as “Favored.” I did not anticipate that Douglas Young, John May and Lorene Coates would lose.
As forecasted, Republicans won 22 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
Republicans won 12 of the 13 races in which they were projected as “Favored.” The House 44 race between Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland, and Johnny Dawkins, D-Cumberland was won by Parfitt.
Republicans won 1 of the 5 “Toss up” races, with Bill Cook defeating Arthur Williams.
Nelson Cole was defeated by his Unaffiliated challenger Bert Jones.
Three toss up races were won by Democrats Marian McLawhorn, Grier Martin and Rick Glazier.
The 15 seats currently held by Democrats that were won by Republicans are: Arthur Williams, Nelson Cole, Douglas Yongue, John May, Lorene Coates, Alice Graham Underhill, Russell Tucker, Van Braxton, Randy Stewart, Chris Heagarty, Jimmy Love, Hugh Holliman, Cullie Tarleton, Bob England, Jane Whilden.

Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.

What made 2010 politically catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that 10 major political liabilities unfolded at the same time. Here are the Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010. They are in the form of titles to previous editions of the John Davis Political Report.

#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates

#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb

#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame

#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending

#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the “Safety” Automaker; Perdue the “Ethics” Governor

#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy

#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American

#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened

#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative

#10: Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment

Yesterday, Election Day, I concluded my report this way: The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…”

Now, in the aftermath of yesterday’s elections, you know why.

I hope that you have enjoyed the John Davis Political Report this election cycle.

- END -

Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.

Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Tuesday, November 2, 2010.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

PLEASE URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!

In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily. I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:

Individual Subscription $48.50 Annual Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Tagged with: 2010 elections • Late Breaking Trends • Liberal • Martin Nesbitt • NC Democrats • NC Republicans • North Carolina elections • President Obama • SEIU • Service Employees International Union • Underemployment • Unemployment

John Davis Consulting, Inc.

Taking the uncertainty out of North Carolina politics.

North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked

North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated

Revised/Updated: North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts – Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre has Fighting Chance

North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre has Fighting Chance

The $1 Billion Question: Can Obama Carry NC in 2012? The images in the campaign kickoff video disclose strategy

Caution: NC’s Population Growth Yields Fewer Democrats but More Liberals; More Republicans and Fewer Conservatives

What’s a Republican to do About the Selection of Charlotte for the Democratic National Convention in 2012?

No Political Party Has a Predictable Advantage in NC; Charlotte Convention Means Obama is Back in 2012

The Fall of the Basnight/Rand Empire and the Rise of a New Generation of United, Savvy Republican Leaders … Who can Raise Money

Stephenson v. Bartlett – The Forgotten Reason Why the NC GOP Won the Majority in 2010

Investors Political Daily – Wednesday, Nov. 3, 2010 – Republicans Win Historic Majorities in NC Senate and House

Late Breaking Trends – Wednesday, Nov. 3, 2010 – Republicans Win Historic Majorities in NC Senate and House

Categories

Membership Login

John Davis Political Report Archives

Recent Comments

Like the JDPR on Facebook

Archives

Contact

February 2012
S	M	T	W	T	F	S
« Jan
			1	2	3	4
5	6	7	8	9	10	11
12	13	14	15	16	17	18
19	20	21	22	23	24	25
26	27	28	29

Taking the uncertainty out of North Carolina politics.

North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated

North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre has Fighting Chance

Categories

Membership Login

John Davis Political Report Archives

Recent Comments

Hot Topics

Like the JDPR on Facebook

Archives

Contact