North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections “Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections
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North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections
“Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections to come.” John N. Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report
Tuesday, September 25, 2012 Vol. V, No. 30 11:13 am
Click Here for John Davis Political Report 2012 NC Senate Forecasts
In 2012, Republicans will win the Senate majority because they have seized the decided advantage jealously guarded by Democrats since the 19th Century. Click here to see the complete list of NC Senate
races with forecasts of the likely winners and favored candidates.
Key Conclusions: First, the state GOP is united behind savvy political warfare leaders at a time when the Democratic Party is divided by scandal and weak leadership. Second, Republicans have the favorable district maps and fundraising advantages historically reserved for Democrats.
These political advantages … money, maps, unity and savvy leaders … have allowed Democrats to maintain their iron-fisted grip on the state budget for a hundred years. Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections to come.
- Winner: Has no further opposition. Democrats 7; Republicans 11.
- Likely Winner: Has a decided advantage (highly partisan district and major financial edge). Democrats 9; Republicans 18.
- Favored: Has an advantage but also has a competitive opponent and/or district. Democrats 2; Republicans 2.
- Toss Up: Competitive district with two equally competitive contenders. Democrats 1; Republicans 1.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, September 26, the John Davis Political Report will publish a forecast of all 120 NC House races.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012. The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles. Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm First Generation of Leaders
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Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012.
The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm
First Generation of Leaders to Lose Legislature to Republicans Since 1898
The North Carolina Democratic Party, a storied national model political war machine with a 112-year winning streak in political dominance; a party that distinguishes itself, along with Oregon and Washington, as one of only three states with no Republican governor in 20 years, finds its political war machine unable to fend off an insurgent state GOP in 2012.
Collapsed. No power. No money. No momentum. No maps. Lost it all in 2010. Lost the state Senate. Lost the state House of Representatives. First time since 1898.
No political warfare generals. The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage of the state Democratic Party since 2008, and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage by the state Republican Party, argue for a difficult year for Democrats in North Carolina in 2012. Including President Obama.
Governor Beverly Perdue, a lame duck whose disapproval rating per Public Policy Polling was “the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling,” chose wisely not to seek a second term. Dramatic shift in political fortunes since 2008. Governor Perdue had eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898. A lame duck.
In 2008, Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue barely won the closest governor’s race in America despite outspending her GOP opponent, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, by 2-to1: $14.9 million to $6.7 million.
And, she barely won during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats. McCrory would have won in 2008 but for Barack Obama’s investment in North Carolina and a structurally deficient North Carolina GOP.
In July, 2012, Pat McCrory, the GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash on hand. Walter Dalton, the Democratic nominee for governor, reported $714,000 cash on hand. McCrory has already reserved over $6 million in TV time for the fall. Dalton: $2.6 million.
The Republican Governor’s Association has committed an additional $5.2 million.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: McCrory 46.6%; Dalton 39%.
The North Carolina Democratic Party is not better off than it was four years ago when Barack Obama won by 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
Structural Deficiencies Since 2008 Seen in Mid-Year Fundraising Reports
There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results. According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”
The AP story on the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Election included:
NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”
- NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
- When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012
Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash on hand. This July, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s a game changing structural deficiency.
Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in the July campaign finance reports. Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported only $92,404 cash on hand.
NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand after a $200,000 contribution to the state party. Four years ago, then-GOP House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported a meager $43,312 cash on hand.
North Carolina No Longer a Presidential Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
The big mistake the Obama camp made this year in investing in North Carolina was in thinking that Obama carried the state in 2008 because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Fact: Obama was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
Public opinion research released this week shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina 47% to 43% in a new Elon University/News & Observer poll, and 46% to 43% in a new High Point University/Fox 8 poll.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: Romney 47.3%; Obama 45.3%.
Greatest Structural Deficiency: Waning Democratic Enthusiasm; 38 Point Shift
According to a Gallup poll released July 25, only 39% of Democrats are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to 51% of Republicans. That’s a 12-point advantage for the Republicans. There’s more.
At the same time in the summer of 2008, 61% of Democrats were “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to only 35% for Republicans. That’s a 26-point advantage for the Democrats.
For emphasis: Democrats have not only lost their 26-point advantage, Republicans have gained a 12-point advantage, for a net gain of 38 points for Republicans since the summer of 2008.
Least enthusiastic: young unemployed/underemployed voters. Obama volunteers.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
Is the North Carolina Democratic Party better off than it was four years ago?
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
WHERE ARE THE JOBS? Economic conditions leaving young electorate unemployed, disenchanted “We’re no longer interested in Hope, Mr. President, we’re interested in having a future.” The Rocky Mountain Collegian, August 28, 2012, The Student Voice of Colorado State University Since 1891 Thursday, August 30, 2012 Vol. V, No. 26 12:13 am Colorado State Student Newspaper
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WHERE ARE THE JOBS? Economic conditions leaving young electorate unemployed, disenchanted
“We’re no longer interested in Hope, Mr. President, we’re interested in having a future.” The Rocky Mountain Collegian, August 28, 2012, The Student Voice of Colorado State University Since 1891
Thursday, August 30, 2012 Vol. V, No. 26 12:13 am
Colorado State Student Newspaper Greets Obama: WHERE ARE THE JOBS?
On Tuesday, President Obama spoke to students at Iowa State University in Ames and Colorado State University in Ft. Collins, working to rekindle the same enthusiastic commitment to his candidacy that helped him win in 2008. The challenge facing Obama with America’s youth can be seen on the front page of The Rocky Mountain Collegian, the campus newspaper at Colorado State. “Where are the jobs?,” screams the headline.
Just below the headline is a picture of a student holding a sign reading, “College grad will work 4 food.” The story notes that 51% of Colorado State grads in 2011 did not have jobs upon graduating. What they did have was an average student loan debt of $22,017.
If that curt page one headline and picture was not a clear enough statement of student reservations about Obama’s worthiness of their support in 2012, the student-written editorial on the Collegian’s OUR VIEW page puts an end to any doubt. Are you listening, Mr. President?
Are you listening, Mr. President?
The staff editorial, titled Are you listening, Mr. President?, reminds Obama that he was the first presidential candidate they were able to vote for and how he inspired them to believe that American politics would be different. “Unfortunately,” the students write, “it’s almost four years later and things look almost the same.”
Here is the stirring concluding paragraph in its entirety:
“President Obama has made great strides on some social issues and his administration did nab bin Laden, but securing the youth vote this election will take leadership and concrete legislation to balance the budget, prevent inflation and improve the economy. We’re no longer interested in Hope, Mr. President, we’re interested in having a future.”
On August 15, 2012, the John Davis Political Report titled, Voter Enthusiasm/Volunteerism favoring Republicans in 2012 as Young American Voters facing 50% Underemployment No Longer Excited about Obama, stated that the young enthusiastic Obama voters from 2008 have not abandoned the cause of hope and change, they have become disenchanted with the leader of the cause. “Without them, Obama cannot carry North Carolina in 2012,” I wrote. “Without them he cannot win a second term as President of the United States of America.”
Living in childhood bedrooms, staring at fading Obama posters
Today, President Obama wound up his two-day outreach to university students with an appearance in Charlottesville, Virginia, home to the University of Virginia. In Ames, Ft. Collins and Charlottesville, the crowds were smaller than four years ago. Although America’s youngest voters remain one of Obama’s most loyal constituencies, what’s missing is the enthusiasm.
With the loss of enthusiastic young voters, President Obama and the Democratic Party have lost their most reliable source of ground game volunteers. Unemployed. Disenchanted.
Tonight, Paul Ryan, presumptive GOP Vice Presidential nominee, brought down the house at the Republican National Convention in Tampa with the line, “College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life.”
Time reported in March that an astounding 21.6% of Americans ages 25 to 34 are living with their parents. That percentage represents 5.9 million young adults. Six in 10 parents said they provide financial assistance to “adult children who are no longer students.” Enthusiastic Obama volunteers?
No enthusiastic volunteers. No voter registration advantage. No turnout advantage. No victory.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Voter Enthusiasm/Volunteerism favoring Republicans in 2012 as Young American Voters facing 50% Underemployment No Longer Excited about Obama “The Democratic advantage in net new registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 in North Carolina has plummeted from 54% to 19.5%. The Republican share of net new registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 has increased
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Voter Enthusiasm/Volunteerism favoring Republicans in 2012 as Young American Voters facing 50% Underemployment No Longer Excited about Obama
“The Democratic advantage in net new registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 in North Carolina has plummeted from 54% to 19.5%. The Republican share of net new registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 has increased from 6% to 24.6%” John Davis Political Report, August 15, 2012
Post: Wednesday, August 15, 2012 Vol. V, No. 25 12:13 pm
No Enthusiastic Volunteers. No Victory.
This report is a continuation of the John Davis Political Report series on the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party, deficiencies that severely limit their ability to keep Republicans from dominating all branches of state government after the 2012 elections.
Thus far, I have written about the loss of political power, loss of the political fundraising advantage, loss of a majority of legislative and congressional districts, loss of strong leaders, loss of unity and the loss of the North Carolina business and agribusiness communities. I consider the latter the greatest loss. A statewide loss of influential leaders. Contributions.
Today, I am adding the loss of enthusiastic young voters. The Democratic Party has lost their most reliable source of ground game volunteers. Unemployed. Underemployed.
No enthusiastic volunteers. No voter registration advantage. No turnout advantage. No victory.
Hope and Change 2.0
According to a Gallup poll released July 25, only 39% of Democrats are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to 51% of Republicans. Gallup’s report used phrases like “Democratic voting enthusiasm down sharply” and “Democrats are significantly less” enthusiastic than in 2008. Least enthusiastic: young unemployed/underemployed voters.
Daniel Henninger, The Wall Street Journal columnist, wrote an opinion piece on August 2, 2012 titled Hope and Change 2.0 in which he concluded that President Obama has “knocked four years of earning power off a lot of people’s lives,” especially young people.
Henninger noted a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that found 18-to-34-year-old voters 19% below all voters in the country in expressing a “high interest in this year’s elections.” He linked the loss of enthusiasm to the following economic nightmare:
- Americans 18-to-24-years-old face nearly 16% unemployment; overall rate 8.3%
- Associated Press study concludes that youth underemployment is 50%
- Student debt is over $1 trillion per Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Time reported in March that an astounding 21.6% of Americans ages 25 to 34 are living with their parents. That’s 5.9 million young adults. Six in 10 parents said they provide financial assistance to “adult children who are no longer students.” Enthusiastic Obama volunteers?
Youth employment in America is at a 60-year low according to an April 19, 2012 NPR story, Educated And Jobless: What’s Next For Millennials, “Only 55 percent of people ages 16 to 29 have a job — the lowest percentage since World War II. New numbers out this week say people under 35 are worth 68 percent less than they were 25 years ago.”
The Obama campaign is counting on young enthusiastic volunteers to use a new online organizing site called Dashboard to “empower you to take on a major role in this campaign.”
I suspect that young voters will only become empowered when they get a job that allows them to move out of their parent’s home and begin paying their own way to their dreams. Meanwhile …
No enthusiastic volunteers. No voter registration advantage. No turnout advantage. No victory.
Will NC GOP’s “Victory 2012” Beat Obama’s “Dashboard” Ground Game?
Obama carried North Carolina in 2008 because of a well organized and managed voter registration and turnout operation manned by enthusiastic young volunteers. If Republicans take away that single advantage, or at least neutralize it, they will continue what they started in 2010: securing majority party status in all three branches of North Carolina state government.
The North Carolina Republican Party’s counter to the Obama camps “Dashboard” is “Victory 2012,” a joint voter registration and turnout operation backed by the state GOP, the Republican National Committee and the Mitt Romney presidential campaign.
“Victory 2012” now boasts 20 regional paid field directors and office locations. “One Team, One Goal, One Victory,” the state GOP’s winning war cry from 2010, their most successful political year since 1896, now appears on everything coming out of state headquarters.
The Obama camp has twice as many headquarters in North Carolina as the GOP. So, who is winning the battle for new voters in 2012? And, how do the results to date compare to 2008?
Four years ago, January 2008 – August 2008, there were 316,746 net new voters registered:
- 171,955 new Democrats (54%)
- 20,363 new Republicans (6%)
- 123,605 new Unaffiliated Voters (39%)
- 823 new Libertarians (.03%)
From January 2012 through August 11, 2012, there were 179,011 net new voters registered:
- 34,904 new Democrats (19.5%)
- 44,019 new Republicans (24.6%)
- 97,393 new Unaffiliated voters (55.9%)
- 2,695 new Libertarians (.015%)
The Democratic advantage in net new registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 in North Carolina has plummeted from 54% to 19.5%. The Republican share of net new registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 has increased from 6% to 24.6%.
The young enthusiastic Obama voters from 2008 have not abandoned the cause of hope and change, they have become disenchanted with the leader of the cause. Without them, Obama cannot carry North Carolina in 2012. Without them he cannot win a second term as president of the United States of America.
No enthusiastic volunteers. No voter registration advantage. No turnout advantage. No victory.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina: The Jurassic Park of Business and Agribusiness Democrats. Extinct. Caused by one of the most avoidable political disasters in state history. North Carolina business and agricultural leaders did not leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left them. John Davis Political Report, July 30, 2012 Post: Monday, July 30, 2012 Vol. V,
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North Carolina: The Jurassic Park of Business and Agribusiness Democrats. Extinct. Caused by one of the most avoidable political disasters in state history.
North Carolina business and agricultural leaders did not leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left them. John Davis Political Report, July 30, 2012
Post: Monday, July 30, 2012 Vol. V, No. 24 11:13 am
Why did business/agribusiness Democrats become extinct?
This report is a continuation of the John Davis Political Report series on the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party, deficiencies that severely limit their ability to keep Republicans from dominating all branches of state government after the 2012 elections.
Thus far, deficiencies have included a loss of political power, loss of the political fundraising advantage, loss of a majority of legislative and congressional districts, and loss of strong leaders.
Today, I am adding the loss of the North Carolina business and agribusiness communities. I consider this the greatest loss. A statewide loss of influential leaders. Contributions.
North Carolina has become the Jurassic Park of pro-business Democrats. An extinct species.
Democrats ignored the warnings. They were cautioned that the balancing influence of business Democrats in their caucuses was needed to keep business/agribusiness on their side.
Now it’s too late. They didn’t recruit business/agribusiness candidates. Today, only 8 of 71 Democrats in the North Carolina General Assembly have pro-business ratings.
Simply put, North Carolina business and agricultural leaders did not leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left North Carolina business and agricultural leaders.
It is one of the most avoidable political disasters in state history.
The proof is in the voting records; Democratic numbers just don’t add up
Of course, all Democrats will tell you that they are pro-business/agribusiness. But listening to a liberal Democrat insisting that they are pro-business is like listening to a conservative Republican insisting that they are pro-environment. Examine the voting records.
The Senate: Based on the most recent business ratings of North Carolina Senators and House members conducted by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation:
- Of 19 Senate Democrats, 2 have business ratings above 70% (highest category)
- 12 of 19 Senate Democrats have business ratings below 55% (lowest category) (Note: Remaining 5 Senate Democrats have scores between the highest and lowest categories)
Problem: When it’s time to elect the caucus leaders, which ideological group will prevail? The group of 2 senators in the highest business category or the group of 12 in the lowest?
Now you know why Senator Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, with a business rating of 39.7%, was elected leader of the Senate Democratic Caucus. And, now you know why business and agricultural interests lost confidence in Senate Democrats.
The House: Business/agribusiness began to lose confidence in House Democrats in 2007 when Rep. Joe Hackney, D-Orange, was elected Speaker. Hackney, with a life-long record of alliances with groups opposing the business position on issues, has a business rating of 16.1%.
- Of 52 House Democrats, 6 have business ratings above 70% (highest category)
- 42 of 52 House Democrats have business ratings below 55%, (lowest category)
(Note: Remaining 4 House Democrats have scores between the highest and lowest categories)
With half the House Democrats having business ratings between 29.6% and 8.2%, it’s little wonder that Hackney, with a business rating of 16.1%, was elected caucus leader.
The proof is in the voting records; Republican numbers are off the charts
The Republicans: Based on the most recent business ratings of North Carolina Senators and House members conducted by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation:
- Of 31 Senate Republicans, 100% have business ratings above 70% (highest category)
- Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, has a business rating of 96%
- Of 68 House Republicans, 67 have business ratings above 70%
- House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, has a business rating of 96%
Who will rescue North Carolina Democrats in 2012?
Gallup released a national study on Thursday, July 26, 2012 showing that business owners in the U.S. are now among the least approving (35%) of the job President Obama is doing. Only one other occupational group thinks less of Obama (34%): farmers. Business/agribusiness.
Although Obama is certainly most responsible for spoiling the relationship between Washington and the business/agriculture community with regulatory overreach and anti-business political rhetoric and gamesmanship, Democratic legislative leaders in Raleigh are most responsible for spoiling their party’s 100-year-old mutually beneficial relationship with business/agribusiness.
So, who will come to the rescue of North Carolina Democrats in 2012? President Obama is on track to becoming the first president in history to raise less money than his opponent because he alienated business/agribusiness interests. Democrats in the North Carolina General Assembly are on track to becoming the first class since the 19th Century to raise less money than Republicans because they alienated business/agribusiness interests.
By alienating business/agribusiness, the federal and state Democratic parties have lost their most reliable source of political contributions. It’s their greatest loss.
North Carolina has become the Jurassic Park of pro-business Democrats. Extinct.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
UPDATE: North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in July 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in July 2012. No power, no money. John Davis Political Report, July 16, 2012 UPDATE Post: Monday, July 16, 2012 Vol. V, No. 23 3:13
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UPDATE: North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in July 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in July 2012. No power, no money. John Davis Political Report, July 16, 2012
UPDATE Post: Monday, July 16, 2012 Vol. V, No. 23 3:13 pm
Structural Deficiencies Seen in State Party Fundraising Results
“The North Carolina Democratic Party … is well behind in the race for money” AP, 7/13/2012
Last Wednesday, July 11, the John Davis Political Report concluded that if the elections were held today, the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party are so profound that they would be incapable of stopping a Republican takeover of all three branches of North Carolina state government.
There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results. According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”
The AP story reported the following campaign fundraising results from the latest reports filed last week with the State Board of Elections:
- NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”
- NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
- When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”
Game Changing Structural Deficiencies Seen in Legislative Leaders’ Fundraising
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012
Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash. Last week, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s a game changing structural deficiency.
Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in last week’s campaign finance reports. Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported $92,404 cash on hand.
NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand. Four years ago, then Republican House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported $43,312 cash.
If you will recall, I reported last week that Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, reported $714,000 cash.
Add last week’s report to this one and you will see why I continue to believe that for the first time in the lifetime of any North Carolinian, if the elections were held today, voters would likely elect a Republican Governor, Republican majorities to the Council of State, state Senate, state House of Representatives, state Supreme Court and the Court of Appeals.
Democrats are not structurally capable of rescuing Dalton … or anyone else for that matter.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, has $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, has $714,000 cash. Game over. John Davis Political Report, July 11, 2012 Post: Wednesday, July 11, 2012 Vol. V, No. 22 7:13 pm Ladies and
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North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton
Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, has $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, has $714,000 cash. Game over. John Davis Political Report, July 11, 2012
Post: Wednesday, July 11, 2012 Vol. V, No. 22 7:13 pm
Ladies and gentlemen, the Governor of the Great State of North Carolina and Mrs. McCrory
If the elections were held today, the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party are so profound that they would be incapable of stopping a Republican takeover of all three branches of North Carolina state government. For the first time in the lifetime of any North Carolinian, if the elections were held today, voters would likely elect a Republican Governor, Republican majorities to the Council of State, state Senate, state House of Representatives, state Supreme Court and the Court of Appeals.
In 2012, for the first time since the 1800s, Republicans will be fighting from a position of partisan strength afforded by power, money, maps, message, momentum, strong leadership and candidates, and most importantly, party unity.
Conversely, for the first time since the 1800s, Democrats will be fighting from a position of partisan weakness resulting from a loss of political power, loss of the political fund raising advantage, loss of a majority of legislative and congressional districts, loss of unity, loss of strong, ideologically flexible political leaders, and the loss of a united base.
Case in point: The Governor’s Race. Today, July 11, polling and campaign fundraising results were announced that put the governor’s race solidly in the “McCrory’s to lose” category.
- July 11 report filed by Walter Dalton with the NC State Board of Elections shows that he has only $714,000 as of July 1, compared to McCrory’s $4.4 million.
- July 11 poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democrat polling firm, shows GOP nominee Pat McCrory ahead of Democrat nominee Walter Dalton by 7 points, 43% to 36%.
- McCrory leads among Independent voters by 47% to 25%.
- McCrory has the support of 79% of Republicans; only 63% of Democrats support Dalton.
McCrory’s Strength as Candidate Seen in during Historic Democrat-friendly Year
In 2008, Perdue defeated McCrory ONLY because of a structurally sound Democratic Party, a 2-to-1 spending advantage and the commitment made by the Obama campaign in North Carolina.
The Obama campaign spent millions on a statewide organization operating out of 47 headquarters. A paid staff of 400 coordinated the work of 10,000 volunteers. The Obama ground game broke all records for new registered voters and early voting turnout. They spent $1.7 million just on straight ticket voter education.
However, despite outspending McCrory $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic voter registration and turnout year for Democrats, Perdue barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America.
That is not just a sign of how weak Beverly Perdue was in 2008, it is a sign of how strong Pat McCrory was in 2008. Now, it is Pat McCrory with the spending advantage and a structurally sound Republican Party backing him up. McCrory has $4.4 million cash as of July 1, 2012. Dalton has $714,000. Game over in the governor’s race.
Furthermore, the North Carolina Democratic Party is not structurally capable of stopping a Republican stampede in 2012 from the top of the ballot down. I will develop the topic of structural deficiencies in the next report.
Meanwhile, North Carolina Governor’s race is McCrory’s to lose, and Democrats are not structurally capable of rescuing Dalton.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Why Romney Must Distance Himself from George W. Bush, the President with a Job Approval as Low as Nixon’s after Watergate “Mr. Romney should face what didn’t work the past 12 years. Republicans took some wrong turns, and they know it. Centrists and independents know it, too.” Peggy Noonan, The Long Race Has Begun, Wall
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Why Romney Must Distance Himself from George W. Bush, the President with a Job Approval as Low as Nixon’s after Watergate
“Mr. Romney should face what didn’t work the past 12 years. Republicans took some wrong turns, and they know it. Centrists and independents know it, too.” Peggy Noonan, The Long Race Has Begun, Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2012
Monday, July 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 21 2:13 pm
The Bush Family Will Understand
I do a lot of public speaking, primarily to business trade association groups. I frequently see the look of bewilderment on the faces of the “anybody but Obama” audience members when I state that President Barack Obama’s job approval is 48% and that at 50% he wins a second term.
The “anybody but Obama” audience members cannot conceive of how it could be remotely possible that Obama could have a near-50% job approval in light of his record in dealing with the nation’s economic crisis; the debt problem, the deficit spending, the unemployment.
That’s when I remind them that President George W. Bush’s job approval was 25% in October of 2008, as low as President Nixon’s job approval after Watergate in 1974 or as low as President Truman’s job approval after he fired Gen. Douglas MacArthur in 1951.
I can think of no political variable keeping President Obama within striking range of second term than the fear of a third Bush administration under Mitt Romney’s leadership.
On June 1, 2012, Peggy Noonan, President Reagan’s primary speech writer, wrote a commentary in The Wall Street Journal titled, The Long Race Has Begun. The last two paragraphs are startling in their depth of political wisdom, calling for Romney to face Republican mistakes:
Mr. Romney should face what didn’t work the past 12 years. Republicans took some wrong turns, and they know it. Centrists and independents know it, too. Candor here, delivered in a spirit of honesty, without animus, would seem not like a repudiation but a refreshment. And this would be deeply undercutting of Mr. Obama, who needs this race to be a fight between two parties, not a fight between a past that didn’t work and a future that can.
The Bush family will understand. They respect politics, and its practitioners.
It would take away a key political advantage from President Obama
Today, July 2, 2012, Molly K. Hooper, writing for The Hill, says in her commentary titled, GOP lawmakers: Romney needs to distance himself from Bush, that if Romney distanced himself from the mistakes of the Bush administration, it “would take away a key political advantage from President Obama, who has repeatedly suggested Romney would embrace Bush-like policies in the White House.”
As Gallup polling has consistently shown, more voters still blame Bush for today’s economic problems than blame Obama. Taking a stand against the irresponsible fiscal policy of the Bush and Obama eras is politically safe with independent voters and the GOP-leaning Tea Partiers. The Tea Party swarmed into the national political arena because of their frustration with big spending conservative Republicans, not just big spending liberal Democrats!
On May 30, 2012, Jonah Goldberg, writing for the National Review Online, says in his commentary titled, Memo to Mitt: Run Against Bush, that Republicans during the Bush era helped create today’s economic problems and “they should concede the point.” Goldberg writes: “Romney is under no obligation to defend the Republican performance during the Bush years. Indeed, if he’s serious about fixing what’s wrong with Washington, he has an obligation not to defend it.”
Goldberg concludes, “Voters don’t want a president to rein in runaway Democratic spending; they want one to rein in runaway Washington spending.”
Romney’s two big political rewards for facing Republican mistakes
According to Gallup today, July 2, 2012, President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 48% to 43%, among registered voters in the latest Gallup Daily tracking seven-day average, which spans June 25-July 1.
There can be no explanation for why President Obama is consistently ahead of Romney in the presidential trial heat polls, and why his job approval is still at 48%, other than most Americans still see the Bush administration and congressional Republicans of the last decade as the instigators of the nation’s economic crisis.
There are two big political rewards waiting for Romney if he begins to place equal blame on Bush and Obama for the nation’s history of irresponsible spending. One is integrity. As Peggy Noonan wrote, Candor here, delivered in a spirit of honesty, without animus, would seem not like a repudiation but a refreshment.
The other reward is independent voters. They could care less about which party solves the problems of the day. They just want leadership with integrity who they can trust to stay focused on those problems and not sell out to their party.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem Post: Monday, May 21, 2012 Vol. V, No. 17 2:13
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UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives
Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America
Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup
Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem
Post: Monday, May 21, 2012 Vol. V, No. 17 2:13 pm
Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America
Last Monday, May 14, 2012, I wrote that after decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles; that Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; and she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s.
On May 17, Public Policy Polling released the results of a new North Carolina survey showing Perdue’s disapproval rating the highest ever, with 57% of voters disapproving of the job she is doing to only 31% who approve.
Quoting PPP, a Democratic polling firm, “… that 57% disapproval is the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling.”
- Among Democrats, Perdue has 50% approval; 34% disapproval.
- Among Republicans, Perdue has a 7% approval; 87% disapproval.
- Among Independents, Perdue has a 27% approval; 64% disapproval.
It’s no wonder that many writers are beginning to report that national Democrats are having buyers’ remorse over the selection of North Carolina for their convention. A bit more vetting by the DNC and they would have seen that under Perdue’s leadership the state party has collapsed.
National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup
On Friday, May 18, 2012, National Journal, one of the nation’s oldest and most respected non-partisan political research organizations, unveiled the first installment of their Hotline’s monthly gubernatorial rankings, listing the governorships most likely to flip partisan control this fall. North Carolina is #1 on the list of the top ten states likely to see a partisan change in the governor’s mansion. “We see North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue’s seat as more likely to wind up in Republican hands,” writes National Journal.
National Journal Forecasts McCrory Win: “It has been more than 20 years since a Republican won the governorship, but former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is looking like a heavy favorite against Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton,” concludes National Journal.
CNN: Obama’s North Carolina math problem
CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby wrote a story on Friday, May 18, 2012, titled Obama’s North Carolina math problem, in which he concluded that the biggest challenge in North Carolina this year for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats can be boiled down to math.
Hamby points out what I have concluded for years: “Everything that could have gone right for Obama in 2008 did go right, and yet he still only won North Carolina by just 14,177 votes — a tiny sliver of the 4.2 million cast statewide.”
Hamby quoted a “senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity” as saying that “white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.”
“The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters,” the Democrat said. “If he doesn’t, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics.”
CNN news anchor Wolf Blitzer interviewed James Carville, President Clinton’s campaign manager, about the story, Obama’s North Carolina math problem. Carville agreed with Blitzer’s statement that the numbers do not look good.
With PPP stating that Gov. Perdue’s approval is now the worst in America, with the National Journal reporting that NC is the #1 state for a GOP governor pickup, and with CNN concluding that Obama has a math problem if he thinks he can carry North Carolina again, I repeat last weeks conclusion: Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity are what lead me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
July 4 Discount 20% … Premium Annual Subscription now only $196
John N. Davis, Editor
Take advantage of the July 4 Sale! A 20% discount on the Premium Annual Subscription … now only $196. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures. Post: Monday, May 14, 2012 Vol. V, No. 16 3:13 pm Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican
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NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
Post: Monday, May 14, 2012 Vol. V, No. 16 3:13 pm
Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican Leadership Emergence
Forecast: A historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives.
The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party during the past 10 years and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party argue for a new era of GOP dominance in the Old North State.
Strong leadership is essential for a winning political organization. Without strong leaders, party factions will turn on each other rather than stand united against the opposition.
After decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles:
- Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s; and she can’t stop the party Executive Committee from keeping the embattled state party chairman after she called for his resignation.
- Perdue’s predecessor, Gov. Easley, was so indifferent to the Democratic Party that he didn’t go to the state or national conventions … or speak to the NAACP state convention.
- Democrats have lost the decisive influence of Eastern NC because they do not have an Eastern NC candidate in the governor’s race like they’ve had for decades: Jim Hunt, D-Wilson; Mike Easley, D-Brunswick; Beverly Perdue, D-Craven.
- Eastern NC Christian social conservative Democrats, black and white, are disappointed with the party leadership’s stand against Amendment One (Obama, Perdue, Dalton).
- Eastern NC Democratic influence in the General Assembly collapsed with the end of the era of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, and with the resignation of Majority Leader Sen. Tony Rand, D-Cumberland. Contributing to the decline was the retirement of powerful insiders like Sen. R.C. Soles, D-Columbus, President of the Senate Caucus; Charlie Albertson, D-Duplin, Agriculture Committee Chairman; and with the loss of Appropriations Committee Co-Chair A.B. Swindell (D-Nash).
Furthermore, Democrats have been rocked by an era of scandal including former party leaders like Gov. Easley, Speaker Black, Agriculture Commissioner Phipps, U.S. Rep. Frank Balance, Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards, Sen. R.C. Soles, Rep. Thomas Wright, and numerous members of the staffs and campaign teams of governor’s Easley and Perdue.
North Carolina No Longer a Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
How could the Obama political organization misread North Carolina so badly?
- Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
The big mistake the Obama camp made was in thinking that Obama carried North Carolina because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Wrong. He was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
- Since 2010, Democrats have lost the majority party/majority district status in NC. And, they no longer have the leverage of political power to gain a fundraising advantage.
- Since 2010, Republicans have gained the leverage of power for a fundraising edge AND 30 Senate districts likely to elect a Republican to only 18 for the Democrats. Republicans only need 26 to keep their majority in the Senate. There are 70 GOP-friendly House districts to only 42 for the Democrats. Republicans need 61 to keep their majority.
- The Republican advantage in the 13 congressional districts has grown from 7 to 10.
The lack of strong Democratic leaders in North Carolina gives the Obama camp no other choice but to begin to discretely redirect the campaign’s North Carolina resources to greener pastures.
Republican Leaders Strengthen; GOP Base Solidifies Over Amendment One
Concurrent with the collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party has been the rise a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party. Those who led the successful battle in 2010, like Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger from Eden and Majority Leader Harry Brown from Jacksonville, along with Speaker Thom Tillis from Huntersville and Majority Leader Skip Stam from Apex on the House side, now wield the political power over the state budget.
Legislative leaders, along with party chairman Robin Hayes and an exceptionally talented team of political professionals, are the new best and brightest in North Carolina political circles.
In the past, disunity has kept Republicans in North Carolina from taking advantage of opportunities. The 61% to 39% rout on the Amendment One campaign was a galvanizing experience for state Republicans, leading to my analysis in The News & Observer May 9:
At a time of economic crisis it was politically risky for Republicans in the North Carolina General Assembly to initiate a statewide constitutional vote on a social issue like the Marriage Amendment. However, thanks to their landslide victory on May 8, the state GOP will now enjoy a win-win of the highest order. They win the loyalty and enthusiastic support of their elated social and religious conservatives, and they neutralized the issue as fodder for Democrats in the General Election. By this fall, the Marriage Amendment controversy will be old news to just about everyone except those elated social and religions conservatives. Their victory will continue to motivate them all year to do the hard work of winning campaigns for conservatives.
Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity is what leads me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
July 4 Discount 20% … Premium Annual Subscription now only $196
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND