Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report; Lessons Learned in 2012: The Parable of the Lost Sheep

by johndavis, November 9, 2012

Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report; Lessons Learned in 2012: The Parable of the Lost Sheep “What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?” Jesus,
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report; Lessons Learned in 2012: The Parable of the Lost Sheep

"What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?”

Jesus, New Testament, Luke 15:4-7

Friday, November 9, 2012       Vol. V, No. 42           12:13 pm

 Parable of the Lost Sheep

I can’t tell you how much I appreciate you for reading my reports during this election cycle.

Politics is my life’s passion.  Analysis.  Writing.  Speaking.  To have people that I respect greatly read my reports is the highest form of professional fulfillment.  Thank you.

Since Tuesday night, I have been stewing over my “lost sheep,” the one race that I got wrong at the end: the U.S. Presidential race.  The lost sheep analogy is from the New Testament book of Luke, where Jesus tells the following parable:  "What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?”

Although my North Carolina forecasts were dead on, including my forecast since Labor Day 2011 that Obama would not carry the state again, I changed my forecast that Obama would win the U.S. Presidential race in early October.  Mistake.  My lost sheep.

I got all 13 congressional races right; 47 of 49 state Senate races right, 114 of 120 state House races right.  I got the Governor and Council of State right; and Supreme Court Justice Newby.

But, the lost sheep.

 We Knew the Tie Would be Broken by Turnout

I had the U.S. Presidential race right from Labor Day 2011 until October 4, 2012.  That’s the day after the first debate when I saw, for the first time, Republicans united and excited about their nominee Mitt Romney.

In my mind, excitement and unity meant momentum and volunteers and turnout.

The race had been tied since the national conventions in Tampa and Charlotte.  The tie would be broken by turnout.  Turnout was driven by unity and enthusiastic volunteers.

Wrong.

Granted, polling confirmed that Romney voters were twice as excited as McCain voters were in 2008.  But in 2012, it was not excitement that made the difference.

Polls also showed that young voters, women, Latino’s and even African Americans were less excited about Barack Obama in 2012 than they were in 2008.

In 2012, it was not excitement that made the difference.

Turnout in 2012 was driven by a strategic and tactical advantage; an early investment by the Obama campaign in the most sophisticated targeting analytical software in political history.  An investment in building the most complete and accurate list of supporters ever.  An investment in strategically placed headquarters from which to manage the turnout operation.  An investment in a field staff to coordinate volunteers as they went about the daily grind of voter turnout.

Conventional wisdom said that there was no way President Obama could get a higher number of African American voters in 2012 than his record-breaking 2008 turnout.  Yet in critical states like Ohio, African American turnout increased from 11% of all voters in 2008 to 15% Tuesday.

If African American turnout in Ohio was the same as 2008, Romney would have won the state.  What principle did the Obama campaign apply? The lost sheep.  Every Obama vote was found.

 North Carolina Republicans Neutralized Obama’s 2008 Turnout Advantage

The Republican National Committee made the strategic and tactical mistake of emphasizing advertising over a technologically advanced turnout organization.

Big mistake.

The Republican independent expenditure leaders like Karl Rove made the strategic and tactical mistake of emphasizing advertising over a technologically advanced turnout organization.

A $400 million mistake.

Fortunately for North Carolina Republicans, the leadership of the state party, led by former Congressman Robin Hayes and Executive Director Scott Laster, recognized the strategic and tactical importance of neutralizing the Democrats’ 2008 turnout advantage with a well-organized and well-funded turnout operation in 2012.  Turnout.

They started early.  They doubled the regional headquarters.  They tripled the paid staff.  They had ten times the number of volunteers doing the hard work of turning out voters.  They worked together.  They worked tirelessly.

The Romney campaign.  The Pat McCrory gubernatorial campaign.  The state Senate and House legislative caucus campaigns.  The Congressional campaigns.  The Council of State and Judicial campaigns.  All united by the state Republican Party into a turnout organization that neutralized the Obama 2008 turnout advantage in North Carolina.

The proof was in the 2012 registration and early voting turnout.  Example:  Romney got 95,000 more early votes in North Carolina than McCain in 2008.  Obama only won by 14,117 votes in 2008 out of 4.3 million.  Turnout advantage neutralized.  Swing state lost.

Thanks to solid candidates, smart political war generals, savvy and committed staff, a great team of fundraisers, fair and legal legislative and congressional maps, and a well-coordinated turnout organization with thousands of volunteers doing the hard work of winning campaigns, North Carolina Republicans will dominate all three branches of state government, executive, legislative and judicial, for the first time since 1898.

 - END -

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


North Carolina House: 77 Republicans; 43 Democrats. Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority

by johndavis, November 7, 2012

North Carolina House: 77 Republicans; 43 Democrats.  Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority Wednesday, November 7, 2012       Vol. V, No. 41           3:13 pm  NC House Races: Forecast vs Results In the new 120-member state House, Republicans will have 77 seats to 43 for Democrats.  The John Davis Political Report Forecast was 73 Republicans,
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North Carolina House: 77 Republicans; 43 Democrats.  Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority

Wednesday, November 7, 2012       Vol. V, No. 41           3:13 pm

 NC House Races: Forecast vs Results

In the new 120-member state House, Republicans will have 77 seats to 43 for Democrats.  The John Davis Political Report Forecast was 73 Republicans, 47 Democrats.

  • Republicans started with 25 candidates with no opposition
  • Republicans won 44 of the 44 races in which they were projected as "Likely Winners"
  • Republicans won 3 of the 4 races in which they were projected as "Favored"
  • Republicans won 4 of the 8 races in which the Democrat was “Favored”
  • Republicans won 1 of the 18 races in which the Democrat was the “Likely Winner”

Democrats started with 21 candidates with no opposition

  • Democrats won 17 of the 18 races in which they were projected as "Likely Winners"
  • Democrats won 4 of the 8 races in which they were projected as "Favored"
  • Democrats won 1 of the 4 races in which the Republican was “Favored”

Click here to see all 120 House races with winners v/s forecasts.

Click here to check the results of any of the North Carolina races as compiled by the North Carolina State Board of Elections.

 - END -

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


North Carolina Senate: 33 Republicans; 17 Democrats. Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority

by johndavis, November 7, 2012

North Carolina Senate: 33 Republicans; 17 Democrats.  Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority   Congratulations to all of the winners!  And, to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes.   Democrats.  Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone. We know
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North Carolina Senate: 33 Republicans; 17 Democrats.  Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority

 

Congratulations to all of the winners!  And, to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes. 

 Democrats.  Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone.

We know exactly what you are feeling right now.  It hurts.  Really bad.

Don’t quit.  This state needs good people like you.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012       Vol. V, No. 40           11:13 am

UPDATE with RUNOFF RESULTS: December 6, 2012       Vol. V, No. 40           2:13 pm

Maps + Money = Majority

Two years ago, November 2, 2010, North Carolina Republicans won majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly for the first time since 1898.

They had exclusive legislative power.  Power meant money.

One year ago, on July 27, 2011, legislative district maps, drawn by Republicans for the first time in over a hundred years, were enacted into law by the North Carolina General Assembly.

Republicans lowered themselves to the standards for fairness set by Democrats over the decades and drew themselves a big advantage in the number of legislative districts likely to elect GOP candidates.

Yesterday, November 6, 2012, legislative election results were predictable.  Maps + Money = Majority.

Maps mean you have a structural advantage; more friendly districts.  Money means you can hire the best political consultants and field organizers and provide your candidates with the resources they need to gain an advantage and win their campaigns.

NC Senate Races: Forecast v/s Results

In the new 50-member state Senate, Republicans will have 33 seats to 17 for Democrats.  The John Davis Political Report Forecast was 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats and 1 toss-up race.

  • Republicans started with 11 candidates with no opposition
  • Republicans won 17 of the 18 races in which they were projected as "Likely Winners"
  • Republicans won the 2 races in which they were projected as "Favored"
  • Republicans won the 2 races in which the Democrat was projected as "Favored"
  • Republicans won the only "Toss up" race
  • Democrats started with 7 candidates with no opposition
  • Democrats won all 9 of the races in which they were projected as "Likely Winners"
  • Democrats won 0 of the 2 races in which they were projected as "Favored."

Click here to see the UPDATED list of all 50 Senate races with winners v/s forecasts.  (The new North Carolina House is now 77 Republicans and 43 Democrats.  Details will follow.)

Congratulations to all of the winners!

And to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes.  Democrats.  Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone.

We all know exactly what you are feeling right now.  It hurts.  Really bad.

Don’t quit.  This state needs good people like you.

 - END -

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


Early Voting Stats Show 5.3% Shift to GOP in North Carolina; National Trend Favors Romney

by johndavis, November 5, 2012

Early Voting Stats Shows 5.3% Shift to GOP in North Carolina; National Trend Favors Romney According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, Obama no longer has the early voting advantage that he enjoyed in 2008.  As for North Carolina in 2012, Democrats are down 3.85% in early
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Early Voting Stats Shows 5.3% Shift to GOP in North Carolina; National Trend Favors Romney

According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, Obama no longer has the early voting advantage that he enjoyed in 2008.

 As for North Carolina in 2012, Democrats are down 3.85% in early voting turnout compared to 2008, and Republicans are up 1.46%.  That’s a net GOP gain of 5.28%.   John Davis Political Report, 11/5/2012

 Monday, November 5, 2012       Vol. V, No. 39           1:13 pm

If Mitt Romney has neutralized President Obama’s 2008 early voting advantage, he will win.

Obama’s strategic advantage has always been the ground game: voter registration and turnout.  That was how he won in 2008.  A ground game requires tens of thousands of enthusiastic volunteers.  In 2008, Obama had them and the GOP didn’t.  In 2012, the GOP has seized the enthusiastic volunteers advantage, thereby neutralizing the early voting turnout advantage.

According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, it was anticipated that Obama would not achieve his 2008 early voting advantage.

Romano cited a Pew Research Center report that says neither Obama nor Romney “has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.”

Further evidence of the shifting early voting fortunes favoring Romney can be found in a study by George Mason University of requested mail ballots in key swing states.  Example:

In Florida, 406,634 registered Democrats have not returned their mail ballots compared to 362,920 Republicans. In comparison, registered Democrats have returned 700,970 mail ballots compared to 781,043 Republicans.

As to overall early voting turnout, according to the United States Elections Project, maintained by George Mason University, a total of 31,660,358 Americans voted early in 2012, down from the 40,592,111 who voted early in 2008 (30.6% of 132,653,958 voted early in 2008).

Although North Carolina has about 120,000 more early voters than in 2008, the percent of the total vote is less (41.8% in 2008; 41.3% in 2012) due to overall registration growing from 6.3 million voters to 6.6 million during the past 4 year.

North Carolina Early Voting Shifts 5.3% in Favor of Republicans

As for North Carolina in 2012, a loss of 3.85% among Democratic early voting turnout compared to 2008, and a gain of 1.46% for Republicans compared to 2008, has yielded a net GOP gain of 5.28%.

2008 Early Voting Turnout – North Carolina Total: 2,618,419 of 6,264,733 (41.8%)

  • Democrats                  51.52%
  • Republicans                30.01%
  • Unaffiliateds               18.4%
  • Libertarians

2012 Early Voting Turnout – North Carolina Total: 2,738,947 of 6,631,904  (41.3%)

  • Democrats                  47.67%
  • Republicans                31.44
  • Unaffiliateds               20.66%
  • Libertarians                0.22%

In addition to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, a great website for seeing early voting stats is www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/, which is maintained by the Civitas Institute.

 - END -

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


The Great Chapel Hill Obama Bumper Sticker Hunt

by johndavis, October 29, 2012

The Great Chapel Hill Obama Bumper Sticker Hunt; If he has lost Chapel Hill, he has lost the race.  “Four years ago it was cool to be for Obama.  Today, it’s cool to be independent.”   Student in Hodding Carter’s Public Policy 70 Seminar at UNC-Chapel Hill Monday, October 29, 2012       Vol. V, No. 37          
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The Great Chapel Hill Obama Bumper Sticker Hunt; If he has lost Chapel Hill, he has lost the race.

 “Four years ago it was cool to be for Obama.  Today, it’s cool to be independent.”  

Student in Hodding Carter’s Public Policy 70 Seminar at UNC-Chapel Hill

Monday, October 29, 2012       Vol. V, No. 37           10:13 am

Last Thursday, October 25, I had the high honor and distinct pleasure of speaking to Hodding Carter’s Public Policy 70 seminar at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

A high honor.  Hodding Carter was U.S. State Department spokesman during the Iran Hostage Crisis from November 1979 to January 1981; one of the most recognized faces in America during the ordeal.  He briefed the nation nightly on network news broadcasts.

A distinct pleasure.  I was surrounded by 24 very intelligent, uninhibited, diverse, inquisitive and suspicious leaders of tomorrow.  Suspicious because I am from another time.  They share the here and now together; staring out with great concern at the pieces being left behind by my generation.  Justifiably uncertain.  Of our value to them.

I was early.  Hodding Carter said to meet him at 1:50 in front of Graham Memorial Hall next to Morehead Planetarium.  It was 1 o’clock.  I was at the light at South and Country Club Road.

I decided to ride around campus and look at all of the political activity.  After all, it was a presidential election year.  If 2012 was anything like 2008 in Chapel Hill, there would be Obama posters in dorm windows, signs of Obama enthusiasm everywhere; students wearing Obama tee shirts, bumper stickers on every car.  Hope. Change.

I turned right on Country Club Road.  The Department of Dramatic Art.  Battle Park.  The Forest Theatre.  Cameron Avenue.  Hummmmmmmmmmm.  No sign of political life.

On past the Old Well; student crossings.  No Obama tee shirts.  Through the intersection at South Columbia Street.  Left at The Carolina Inn onto Pittsboro Street.  No bumper stickers.

I continued straight at the light to Manning Drive; the hospital complex.  Students coming up the hill.  No sign of political life.

In 2008, my twin sons were university seniors; one at North Carolina State University in Raleigh and one at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.  Both campuses were hotbeds of Obama enthusiasm.  Over 5,000 students at NC State in Reynolds Coliseum to hear Michele Obama; 18,000 in the Dean Dome at Chapel Hill to hear Barack Obama.

I spent a lot of time on both campuses that year, witnessing first hand the excitement among young voters for Barack Obama. There were signs everywhere; folding tables and chairs around campus and on Franklin and Hillsborough Streets as young volunteers urged their fellow students to register and vote early.  For Obama.

I turned right into Hinton James Dormitory.  It was my son’s freshman dorm.  I wanted to count the Obama signs in the windows.  Hundreds of windows.  Hummmmmm.  Not one Obama sign.

I glanced around the parking lot.  No Obama bumper stickers.  Curious.  Very curious.

Back out onto Manning and right into the parking lot at Koury and Ehringhaus.  Hundreds of cars.  No Obama signs in windows.  No Obama bumper stickers.  Not one.

Right on Ridge Road and left on Stadium Drive.  Parker.  Teague.  Kenan Stadium.  No signs.  No tee shirts.  No bumper stickers.  No sign of political life.

Right on to South Road.  UNC Student Stores; Student Union.  Student crossings.  Nothing.

I began to feel like the Greek philosopher Diogenes with his lamp in search of one honest man.  Surely there was one Obama bumper sticker in Chapel Hill.  One tee shirt.  One sign.

Left onto Raleigh Street.  Winston. Conner. Alexander. Lewis. Everett. Stacy. Graham. Aycock.  Past the Coker Arboretum.  McIver. Kenan. Alderman. Spencer.  No signs.  No tee shirts.

Left onto East Franklin Street.  Surely in downtown Chapel Hill, the fulcrum of liberal activism in North Carolina, there will be plenty of Obama signs and tee shirts and bumper stickers.

I parked in the parking lot at the planetarium, right next to Graham Memorial Hall where I was to meet Hodding Carter at 1:50.  It was only 1:20.  I had plenty of time to count the Obama bumper stickers in downtown Chapel Hill.

I walked towards downtown across the street from McAlister’s Deli and the Post Office, careful to look back at the bumpers of cars parked in the other direction.  Nope.

Then I spotted one of those message boards where everyone posts flyers about upcoming concerts and study abroad programs.  Hummmmmm.  I see Delta Rae is playing at the Carolina Theatre on Friday, November 16.  Justin Townes Earle and Tift Merritt are at Cat’s Cradle on Thursday, November 15.  Not one Obama poster.

Newspaper racks. Bus stops. Trash cans.  Parking meters.  No Obama signs.  Students coming and going.  No tee shirts.  Cars in every metered spot.  No bumper stickers.

Hummmmmmmmmmmm.

I crossed Franklin Street at Spanky’s and walked back towards Graham.  A street preacher handed me a “Are you right with the Lord” tract.  Cold Stone Creamery.  Varsity Theater.  Trees.  Benches.  Bikes.  Julian’s.  No Obama signs.

Chapel Hill was a political ghost town.

Another message board.  Swing Dance lessons Wednesdays in November at the ArtsCenter in Carrboro.  Study Abroad Scholarships at www.goabroad.com.  Eat at Flaming Amy’s Burrito Barn in Wilmington.  Not one Obama sign.

I crossed Franklin Street near Graham Memorial Hall.  There among the giant oaks stood Silent Sam, the statue of a Confederate soldier erected in 1913 by the United Daughters of the Confederacy.  I waited there for Hodding Carter, a great American journalist and Civil Rights pioneer; pondering the waning political fortunes of America’s first African-American president.

Just four years earlier, Barack Obama had inspired thousands of young people on more than 100 college campuses across North Carolina to do the hard work of winning campaigns.  They registered and turned voters out in record numbers.

Exit polling in North Carolina showed that voters between 18 and 29 chose Obama over John McCain by a whopping 74%-26% margin.  Obama carried the state by only 14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast.  Without enthusiastic young people, this state’s 15 electoral votes would have gone to McCain.  But, where are the signs in the dorm windows today?  The bumper stickers?

My NC State and UNC-Chapel Hill twin sons went to President Obama’s inauguration.  Drove all night and stood in the freezing cold for hours from sunup to noon just to witness the historic occasion.  I was so proud of them.  Proud about how far we have come since my Great Grandfather, John Davis, fought along side Silent Sam.

At precisely 1:50, Hodding Carter came walking up the sidewalk.  We chatted a minute about our children and friends we have in common in Mississippi.  He told me about his class.  He said that it was the most interesting group he had taught in six years.

Soon I was surrounded by 24 very intelligent, uninhibited, diverse, inquisitive and suspicious leaders of tomorrow.  Suspicious because I am from another time.  They share the here and now together; staring out with great concern at the pieces being left behind by my generation.  Justifiably uncertain.  Of our value to them.

 Unlike my generation, there is not a racist sentiment in any of these students.  Diversity is not a goal for them.  That’s old school.  Diversity is today’s social norm.  Today’s generation does not merely tolerate differences, they celebrate differences.

If President Obama loses his race for a second term, it will be because he disappointed his base on matters of the economy.  Jobs. Unemployment. Debt.  Disappointed his base.

I suspect that most of Hodding Carter’s students will vote for President Obama.  I also suspect that they are not volunteering their time to turn out voters in record numbers this year; that they do not have Obama posters on their dorm walls.

I asked the class why there were no signs of life for Obama on campus.  One student replied, “Four years ago it was cool to be for Obama.  Today, it’s cool to be independent.”

For whatever reasons, the enthusiasm that I saw four years ago on the campuses of North Carolina State University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill for Barack Obama is gone.  The campuses look like political ghost towns.

I never found one Obama bumper sticker last Thursday in Chapel Hill.

If President Obama has lost the enthusiastic support of Chapel Hill, he has lost the race.

 - END -

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


Mitt Romney will be the Next U.S. President

by johndavis, October 26, 2012

Mitt Romney will be the Next U.S. President   Site: Grove Park Inn, Asheville; October 4, 2012. Event: North Carolina Forestry Association Annual Meeting. Scene: Audience member asks, “John, you said this morning that Romney would be the next President.  Have you changed your opinion recently? If so, when and why?” Answer: “Yes, I changed
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Mitt Romney will be the Next U.S. President

 

Site: Grove Park Inn, Asheville; October 4, 2012.
Event: North Carolina Forestry Association Annual Meeting.
Scene: Audience member asks, “John, you said this morning that Romney would be the next President.  Have you changed your opinion recently? If so, when and why?”
Answer: “Yes, I changed my opinion last night after the presidential debate in Denver … because of two words: unity and enthusiasm.  Up until then, Republicans were not united or enthusiastic about Romney.  Today they are.”

Friday, October 26, 2012       Vol. V, No. 36           1:13 pm

Dedicated to the memory of Bob Slocum, Jr., Executive Vice President of the North Carolina Forestry Association, who died October 16, 2012

On Tuesday, November 6, 2012, Mitt Romney will be elected President of the United States.

Two powerful forces at play argue for a Romney win. One, Republicans are united and enthusiastic about Romney.  For Romney not just against Obama.  Two, President Obama's 2008 base of support is not united and not enthusiastic.  Disappointed.

The turning point was the first presidential debate in Denver.  Romney won by a record 72% according to Gallup’s national survey of debate watchers.  Only 20% thought Obama won.

  • Romney’s 52-point win is the largest presidential debate win Gallup has ever measured
  • In 2008, Gallup showed Obama as the winner in all three debates over John McCain

On October 3, 2012, Mitt Romney accomplished something every conservative in American would have loved to have done: he defeated President Barack Obama, a liberal, in an ideological argument about the economy in front of 67 million people.  Enthusiasm kindled.  Unity fused.

Reluctant Republicans joined with Romney stalwarts.  Religious right Republicans.  Tea Party Republicans.  Libertarian Republicans.  Business moderate Republicans.  United.  Excited.

The results were apparent right away.  According to the Washington Post-ABC News Poll conducted October 10-13, the number of Romney voters “Very enthusiastic” about supporting him is 62%, up from 48% in late September and 26% in late May.  In other words, enthusiasm for Romney among his supporters has grown by 161% since the May survey.

An even more significant number in the poll in measuring Romney’s potential: only 31% of John McCain’s supporters were “very enthusiastic” about him in October of 2008; Romney 62%.

For emphasis: After the first debate, Mitt Romney’s “very enthusiastic” support percent doubled that of John McCain’s at the same time four years ago.

  • 31% of John McCain’s supporters were “very enthusiastic” about him in October 2008
  • 62% of Mitt Romney’s supporters are “very enthusiastic” about him in October 2012

First Signs of Disenchantment with Obama came in Fall 2009

Disenchantment in the Obama camp was evident within months of his inauguration in 2009.  According to Gallup, President Obama’s job approval after his first week in office was 69%.  By that fall, his job approval had plummeted to 50%.  Year-end, 48%.

Two states had governors races in the fall of 2009.  Despite personal visits and impassioned appeals by Obama, Republicans won in Virginia and New Jersey.  Low turnout among African-Americans.  Low turnout among young people.  Shifting loyalties of independent voters.

According to exit polling:

  • Only 8% of the 18-to-24-year-old voters turned out in New Jersey (17% in 2008)
  • Only 10% of the 18-to-24-year-olds turned out in Virginia (21% in 2008).

Virginia gubernatorial winner Bob McDonnell received 62% of the independent votes, with Democrat Creigh Deeds capturing only 37%. In New Jersey, GOP gubernatorial winner Chris Christie received 58% of the independent votes, with Democrat Corzine capturing only 31%.

Then came the special election for U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts in January 2010.  Victory denied.  Obama’s influence again ignored.  That fall, American voters flipped 65 U.S. House seats from Democrat to Republican.  Largest gain by either party since 1948.

Where were the enthusiastic Obama volunteers from 2008?  Vanished in the fog of uncertainty that accompanies unemployment and underemployment.

On October 8, a new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll concluded:  “The percentages among key Democratic constituencies who say they are extremely likely to vote should cause concern in Chicago: While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they’re “extremely likely” to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.”  Disappointed.

I did not see the enthusiasm and unity for Romney coming

Throughout this election cycle, I have hesitated to call the race for Romney because of two critical factors: Republican unity and Republican enthusiasm.  They were in doubt.  Despite growing signs of a disenchanted Obama base, there were still simply too many Republicans who doubted Romney’s conservative bona fides.

Then came Wednesday, October 3, 2012; University of Denver.  Mitt Romney accomplished something every conservative in America would have loved to have done: he defeated President Barack Obama, a liberal, in an ideological argument about the economy in front of 67 million people.  Enthusiasm kindled.  Unity fused.

I watched the debate in my room at the Grove Park Inn, the same hotel where President Obama stayed in 2008 when he prepared for his first debate against John McCain.  I was there for a speech to the Annual Meeting of the North Carolina Forestry Association.  The speech was written; the PowerPoint presentation was prepared saying Obama would win a second term.

Then came Mitt Romney’s 52-point win in the first presidential debate.  Largest presidential debate win Gallup has ever measured.  The same Barack Obama who had won all three debates against John McCain in 2008 just lost.  Lost big.

I turned my laptop on and opened my PowerPoint presentation.  For the first time in this election cycle I typed, “Romney likely winner of U.S. Presidential race.”  I had always said that he would carry North Carolina.  Now, I believed he would take it all.

After my speech to the Forestry Association the next morning, during the Q&A, a member of the audience asked, “John, you said this morning that Romney would be the next President.  Have you changed your opinion recently? If so, when and why?”

I replied, “Yes, I changed my opinion last night after the presidential debate in Denver … because of two words: unity and enthusiasm.  Up until then, Republicans were not united or enthusiastic about Romney.  Today they are.”

 - END -

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


It’s All Over for Obama in North Carolina as Romney Surges Ahead. Republicans on track to dominate Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches

by johndavis, October 23, 2012

It’s All Over for Obama in North Carolina as Romney Surges Ahead.  Republicans on track to dominate Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches Question from CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Monday, October 22, to Paul Begala, senior Democratic political consultant to pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action: “Has he [Obama] given up on North Carolina?”  Paul Begala: “Yes.”
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It’s All Over for Obama in North Carolina as Romney Surges Ahead.  Republicans on track to dominate Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches

Question from CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Monday, October 22, to Paul Begala, senior Democratic political consultant to pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action: “Has he [Obama] given up on North Carolina?”  Paul Begala: “Yes.”

Tuesday, October 23, 2012       Vol. V, No. 35           11:13 am

Paul Begala, senior Democratic political consultant to pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action, the same Paul Begala who was Chief Strategist for 1992 Clinton-Gore campaign, dropped a political bombshell yesterday when he told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that President Obama was giving up on North Carolina.

“Paul, one quick question to you,” said Wolf Blitzer during a live CNN interview, “Has he given up on North Carolina?” Begala replied, “Yes.” Watch the interview here.

Now comes the news that Begala is walking back his comment about Obama giving up on North Carolina. Walk back all you want Paul, Obama cannot carry North Carolina in 2012.

All hopes for a political comeback for North Carolina Democrats this year were already in doubt. No power. No money. No momentum. No maps. Lost it all in 2010 thanks to President Obama.

Today, Real Clear Politics has Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina by 50% to 45%. Romney has led in all North Carolina polls conducted in October. It’s all over.

This morning's news that North Carolina is among the states for a final Obama TV ad blitz is panning for fool’s gold. You can't win here with a weak, leaderless, underfunded, unenthusiastic state Democratic Party, especially against a united, well-led, well-funded and enthusiastic Republican Party.

North Carolina Democrats have no political warfare generals; Perdue “the worst job approval of any Governor in the country” according to Public Policy Polling, a Democratic poll firm.  Eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898.  A lame duck.

All of the political advantages enjoyed by North Carolina Democrats in 2008 have by seized by North Carolina Republicans, especially money, unity and enthusiasm among volunteers.

Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s the key game-changing structural deficiency for the state Democrats. The other is the loss of enthusiasm for Obama.

 Enthusiasm for Obama is Gone; Growing in GOP Ranks

On April 19, 2012, in the John Davis Political Report, Vol. V, No. 14, I wrote, “President Obama cannot win a second term without the army of enthusiastic young campaign volunteers responsible for his first victory, and thus far they are nowhere to be found. They have not abandoned the cause; they have abandoned the leader of the cause.”

Four years ago you could not have walked on any campus in North Carolina without being accosted by an enthusiastic Obama volunteer. Today, they are nowhere to be found. Too many unemployed or working somewhere part time; forced to live with their parents after college.

In 2008, Obama carried the state by only 14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast despite a dominant state Democratic Party and a year-long commitment of a full compliment of political resources; 47 headquarters staffed by 400 paid field organizers who coordinated the get-out-the-vote work of 10,000 enthusiastic volunteers. Obama never had a chance in 2012 without a strong state Democratic Party ... and those 10,000 enthusiastic volunteers.

With Romney surging ahead of Obama in North Carolina, and the state GOP enjoying the advantage of the thousands of enthusiastic volunteers, Republicans are on track to dominate the elections in all three branches of state government, executive, legislative and judicial.

 - END -

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


North Carolina Congressional Forecasts; No Change since Exclusive Scoop July 1, 2011

by johndavis, October 12, 2012

North Carolina Congressional Forecasts; No Change since Exclusive Scoop July 1, 2011 The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election. John Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report  Friday, October 12, 2012       Vol. V, No. 33           9:13 am  Exclusive Scoop in 2011 On Friday morning, July 1, 2011,
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North Carolina Congressional Forecasts; No Change since Exclusive Scoop July 1, 2011

The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election.

John Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report

 Friday, October 12, 2012       Vol. V, No. 33           9:13 am

 Exclusive Scoop in 2011

On Friday morning, July 1, 2011, subscribers to the John Davis Political Report were the first to see the new congressional districts proposed by the legislative remappers.  The headline read, North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre Fighting Chance.

A historic Republican advantage was in the making.  When the final maps were enacted into law on July 28, 2011, only 3 districts of 13 were safe for Democrats.  By the time the filing deadline rolled around on February 29, 2012, Congressmen Brad Miller (Wake County) and Heath Shuler (Haywood) conceded to the Republican advantages in their districts and announced that they would not seek reelection.

Two Democratic Congressmen, Mike McIntyre (Robeson) and Larry Kissell (Montgomery), decided to fight against the odds for reelection.  As last year's headline read, McIntyre has a fighting chance.  Kissell does not.

Congressman McIntyre is a seasoned campaigner who can count his war chest by the millions of dollars; a classic Eastern North Carolina Blue Dog Democrat who has the endorsement of the National Rifle Association and over 50 Southeastern North Carolina mayors.  Former state Senator David Rouzer is a newcomer to big league politics, and may be out-muscled despite the favorable leaning of the district.

Larry Kissell's chances for reelection are slim-to-none.  The most loyal Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County were carved out of this one-time Swing district held by Republican Robin Hayes (Cabarrus) for five terms.  It is now safe territory for GOP challenger Richard Hudson (Cabarrus).

Check out the complete list of North Carolina Congressional Districts here with a forecast of the likely winners.

Bottom line: The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election.

 - END -

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


 

Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


Romney’s Debate Win Closes the Deal with Reluctant Republicans and the 5-point Gap with Obama

by johndavis, October 8, 2012

Romney’s Debate Win Closes the Deal with Reluctant Republicans and the 5-point Gap with Obama “Registered voters’ preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday’s presidential debate. In the three days prior to the debate, Barack Obama had a five-percentage-point edge among registered voters.”     Gallup, October
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Romney’s Debate Win Closes the Deal with Reluctant Republicans and the 5-point Gap with Obama

“Registered voters' preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday's presidential debate. In the three days prior to the debate, Barack Obama had a five-percentage-point edge among registered voters."     Gallup, October 8, 2012

 October 8: A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 52% to 46% among voters "extremely likely to vote."

 Monday, October 8, 2012       Vol. V, No. 32           3:13 pm

 An ideological rout in front of 67 million people; a record 52-point win

Here is what conservative Republican presidential holdouts witnessed last Wednesday night during the first debate in Denver:  1. Mitt Romney; 2. overwhelmingly defeated liberal President Barack Obama; 3. in an ideological argument; 4. in front of 67 million people.

For emphasis:  Mitt Romney overwhelmingly defeated liberal President Barack Obama in an ideological argument in front of 67 million people.  If you are a conservative Republican, it doesn’t get much better than that.

It was a rout; an ideological rout.  Gallup says 72% of those who watched the debate thought Romney did the better job; 10% said Obama did the better job.  More Democrats thought Romney won (49%) than thought Obama won (39%).  Gallup says a 52-point win is a record.

But get this:  97% of all Republicans said Romney did the better job in the debate; 2% Obama.  I could hear the roar of the right all across the land.  Mitt’s in.  He’s now one of them.

The first presidential debate at the University of Denver eliminated two major stumbling blocks Romney faced with the Republican base: unity and enthusiasm.  Now, thanks to the rout, the ideological rout, Romney has endeared himself to conservative Republican holdouts.

 NC GOP ground game claims 500,000 voter contacts last week alone

 Unity and enthusiasm fuel political momentum.  Momentum means money, volunteers, a greater willingness to display support and higher turnout of voters.  Did Romney’s debate win in Denver spark GOP unity and enthusiasm in North Carolina?

Today’s News & Observer’s Under the Dome carried a story titled, NC GOP says it contacted 200,000 voters on Saturday, in which the North Carolina Republican Party claims that “nearly 3,000 volunteers made 110,000 calls and knocked on more than 90,000 doors” as a part of it’s “Tarheel Turnout” Saturday this past weekend.  They also claim that their ground game organization made 500,000 voter contacts last week alone.

Granted, those numbers are impressive.  However, the most politically significant note in the story was the claim that last week’s presidential debate sparked a “spike in volunteers.”

Obama would not have carried North Carolina in 2008, and Beverly Perdue would not have been elected governor, had it not been for their record-setting voter registration and turnout machine.  Take away the ground game advantage and Democrats are in for a long night in November.

The debate closed the deal with reluctant Republicans, sparked GOP unity and enthusiasm, and closed the 5-point gap with Obama.

 Romney leads among “extremely likely to vote” by 52% to 46%

 According to Gallup, President Obama led Mitt Romney by 5 points prior to the debate (Pre-debate Sept 30 – Oct 2 Obama 50% to Romney’s 45%).  Looking only at the three days immediately after the debate, Obama has 47%; Romney 47%.  From a 5-point lead to a tie.

Today’s Real Clear Politics polling average for the time period September 26 – October 7 shows Obama at 48.3% and Romney at 47.2%.

MOST INTERESTING POLL OF THE DAY:  A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney nationally by only 1 point, a statistical tie.  However, if you look at voters extremely likely to vote, Romney leads by 52% to 46%.

The most telling result of the poll is that only 73% of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote.  Romney supporters?  86% say they are “extremely likely to vote.”

For emphasis: among voters extremely likely to vote, Romney leads Obama by 52% to 46%.  Key paragraph in the poll report:

The percentages among key Democratic constituencies who say they are extremely likely to vote should cause concern in Chicago: While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they’re “extremely likely” to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.

The first presidential debate at the University of Denver eliminated two major stumbling blocks Romney faced with the Republican base: unity and enthusiasm.  Now, thanks to the rout, the ideological rout, Romney has endeared himself to conservative holdouts and is leading in the most important category of polling in a virtually tied race: enthusiasm.

 - END -

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


 

Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


North Carolina House Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections

by johndavis, September 26, 2012

North Carolina House Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections “Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections
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North Carolina House Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections

“Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections to come."  John N. Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report

 Wednesday, September 26, 2012       Vol. V, No. 31      11:13 am

Click Here for John Davis Political Report 2012 NC House Forecasts

 In 2012, Republicans will win the House majority because they have seized the decided advantage jealously guarded by Democrats since the 19th Century.  Click here to see the complete list of NC House races with forecasts of the likely winners and favored candidates.

Key Conclusions:  First, the state GOP is united behind savvy political warfare leaders at a time when the Democratic Party is divided by scandal and weak leadership.  Second, Republicans have the favorable district maps and fundraising advantages historically reserved for Democrats.

These political advantages ... money, maps, unity and savvy leaders ... have allowed Democrats to maintain their iron-fisted grip on the state budget for a hundred years.  Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections to come.

  • Winner: Has no further opposition.  Democrats 22; Republicans 25.
  • Likely Winner: Has a decided advantage (highly partisan district and major financial edge).  Democrats 16; Republicans 45.
  • Favored: Has an advantage but also has a competitive opponent and/or district.  Democrats 7; Republicans 5.
  • Toss Up: Competitive district with two equally competitive contenders.  Democrats 0; Republicans 0.

 - END -

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


 

Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND