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[Audio clip: view full post to listen] Post: August 18, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 21 “You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.” Fmr. Wyoming Republican U.S. Senator Alan Simpson, Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission Investors Political Daily: Obama’s Probability of Carrying NC in 2012 is 44% This
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Post: August 18, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 21
“You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.”
Fmr. Wyoming Republican U.S. Senator Alan Simpson,
Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission
Investors Political Daily: Obama’s Probability of Carrying NC in 2012 is 44%
This is the first look at President Obama’s probability of carrying North Carolina next year using a dozen key political and economic variables.
Click here to view PDF of Key Variables for Obama’s Probability of carrying NC.
If the election for president were held today, Obama would only receive about 44% support in North Carolina.
As you will see when you open the chart, although Obama’s numbers are lousy the Republicans are not much better.
- 56% of “independent voters” in NC disapprove of the job Pres. Obama is doing; 38% approve
- 38% of NC voters tend to favor Democrats; 40% tend to favor Republicans
- 39% of NC voters supported raising the debt limit with deep cuts (Obama’s position)
- Unlike the US as a whole, more North Carolinians support the Tea Party (42%) than oppose it (37%). Nationally, 51% of voters see Tea Party unfavorably; 31% favorably
Obama Lost Favor with Voters Immediately After Taking Office
Last June 10, 2010, I wrote a report titled, Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointments. It was about why Obama’s “Job Approval” had plummeted to quickly. The list is still relevant:
POST JUNE 10, 2010
Obama Disappoints: Average Weekly Job Approval Reaches All-Time Low in June
The great hope for change in Washington has been reduced to great disappointments following political disaster after political disaster. It’s little wonder that President Obama’s job approval rating is only 44%, a 52-week low. According to Gallup, Obama’s weekly average job approval has reached a new low as well, 46%, from a weekly average of 65% this time a year ago.[i]
- He ran as a man of great courage but has become a defensive scapegoater
- He ran as a friend of the environmentalists but authorized more offshore drilling
- He ran as a dove but has morphed into a hawk on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
- He ran as a uniter but has become a partisan wrecking ball with his legislative agenda
- He ran as a centrist but is governing as a liberal surrounded by liberals
- He ran as a man of the people but put his priority, healthcare, ahead of their priority, jobs
- He ran as a man who would close Gitmo and would not hire lobbyists … ha!
- He ran as a leader committed to fiscal responsibility but is overseeing a doubling of the national debt (projected at $19 trillion by 2015); “unsustainable” said Bernanke 6/10
- He ran against Wall Street but recapitalized their bonuses with taxpayer money
- He ran as an economic and jobs stimulator but unemployment/underemployment is still at 20%,[ii] with almost all of the new jobs in May being temporary with the Census Bureau
- He said his would be the most transparent administration in history yet he manages the news media with connivances, stonewalling and defensive double-speak
Obama would be well served to closet himself for a while at the White House and ponder Ralph Waldo Emerson’s sage caution, “What you are speaks so loudly, I cannot hear what you say.”
Obama’s potential for reelection is still within striking range, although more and more — in order to stay in the running — he has to rely on voter dissatisfaction with all parties and all elected officials … especially those in Washington D.C. associated with the nation’s debt and jobs crisis.
Our national financial position is so weak that it prompted Alan Simpson, fmr. Wyoming GOP U.S. Senator and Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission to retort, “You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.”
Next week Investors Political Daily will look at Gov. Perdue’s probability of a 2012 win.
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[i] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx
[ii] http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx June 10, 2010
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[Audio clip: view full post to listen] Post: August 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 20 “I’m going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one.” President Barack Obama, Johnson Controls, Holland, Michigan, 8/11/2011 Nothing wrong with our country. Something wrong with our politics. Yesterday, in Holland, Michigan, while
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Post: August 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 20
“I’m going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one.”
President Barack Obama, Johnson Controls, Holland, Michigan, 8/11/2011
Nothing wrong with our country. Something wrong with our politics.
Yesterday, in Holland, Michigan, while touring a battery facility, President Obama announced that he would release new proposals for job creation “week by week” to stimulate hiring. “I’m going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one,” Obama said.
Obama also seized the bully pulpit yesterday to chide political leaders for partisan gridlock. “There is nothing wrong with our country. There is something wrong with the politics,” he said.
Whether Americans will be encouraged by Obama’s “job for every American” pledge, most Americans probably agree with his statement, “There is something wrong with the politics.”
In the aftermath of the debt debate, the President and the Congress are seeing their lowest approval ratings. However, August polling shows that the Tea Party and Republicans in Congress are hurting the GOP’s chances at defeating Obama in his race for a second term.
- Pres. Obama’s job approval is an anemic 43.3%, with 50.4% disapproving (a new low)
- Congressional job approval is only 16.8%, with 77% disapproving (a new low)
- A record 20-year low 21% say most in Congress deserve re-election (a new low)
- Overall support for the Tea Party has dipped to 25% (a new low)
- Despite Obama’s low numbers, 41% approve of his jobs policy when compared to the 26% who approve of the jobs policy of the Republicans in Congress.
Investors Political Daily Shows Obama’s Probability of 2012 Win is 48%
Last August, the John Davis Political Report unveiled a new feature Investors Political Daily. A dozen key political and economic trends 
were tracked daily to give readers a sense of how the elections were likely to unfold.
Thanks to tracking by Investors Political Daily, the John Davis Political Report projected the winner in 47 of 47 North Carolina Senate races (3 races were toss ups), and correctly projected the winner in 111 of 115 North Carolina House races (five races were toss ups).
No one called the legislative races earlier or more accurately.
The Investors Political Daily this election cycle features 12 key economic and political variables. They will be update daily where practical (Obama Job Approval) or as soon as the updates are available (Unemployment).
Click here to view PDF of Key Variables for Obama’s Probability of Win in 2012:
- Economic conditions in US … excellent, good, fair, poor
- Obama job approval
- Presidential generic ballot
- National party favorability ratings
- Job creation index
- Generic Congressional ballot
- Independent voters
- Jobs policy approval
- Consumer spending
- National party ID
- Tea Party opinion
- Unemployment
Next Week’s Investors Political Daily:
- Obama’s Probability of Winning NC in 2012
- Perdue’s Probability of Winning NC Governor’s Race
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[Audio clip: view full post to listen] Post: August 4, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 19 “We’ve earned the threat of a downgrade. If we don’t make significant changes in the way we operate; if we don’t cut spending on entitlements, if we don’t make real cuts in defense spending, if we don’t reform the tax
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Post: August 4, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 19
“We’ve earned the threat of a downgrade. If we don’t make significant changes in the way we operate; if we don’t cut spending on entitlements, if we don’t make real cuts in defense spending, if we don’t reform the tax code, then we are definitely on our way to becoming a second rate world power.”
Erskine Bowles, Telephone Interview, 8/4/2011
Co-chairman of President Obama’s Debt & Deficit Commission;
former Chief of Staff to President Clinton and President of the UNC System
Interview with Erskine Bowles, Co-chair of President Obama’s Debt & Deficit Commission, on when we can expect to see those Now Hiring signs
I called Erskine Bowles yesterday to get his take on when we can expect businesses to dust off and hang those Now Hiring signs in light of the signing of the debt limit deal. “When we get the confidence up,” he said, “Small business can’t grow … can’t create jobs … without money. We’ve got to get banks back in the business of lending money,” adding, “A big part of it is truly this whole confidence factor.”
With ongoing concern about a downgrade of the nation’s AAA credit rating still lurking in the shadows and chilling the private sector’s “confidence factor,” I asked, “When are we going to get beyond the threat of a potential downgrade?”
“We’ve earned the threat of a downgrade,” he replied, “And if we don’t make significant changes in the way we operate; if we don’t cut spending on entitlements, if we don’t make real cuts in defense spending, if we don’t reform the tax code, then we are definitely on our way to becoming a second rate world power.”
That’s when it hit me. What Bowles was saying was that the agony and ugliness of the debate in Washington D.C. over raising the debt ceiling was merely a beginning … a first step. “You can’t finish what you don’t start,” he said, “That’s why I’m a bit optimistic; we’ve taken the first step.”
In other words, what Bowles was saying was that the beatings will continue (more uncompromising debate by liberal and conservative recalcitrant extremists) until the morale improves (consumer and investor confidence), and the morale will improve (consumer and investor confidence) only after a diet of distasteful peas and “Satan sandwiches” (more painful cuts in programs and services; tax reform that includes added revenue).
“I’m so proud of you son … but don’t mess with my Medicare.”
Erskine Bowles returned my call yesterday from a taxicab in New York City. He had been in Vancouver the night before, speaking to an audience of business leaders from around the US. “I told those folks last night in Vancouver that the problem is real, the solutions are all painful, there is no easy way out … but we have to take it.”
Then he chuckled a bit and said, “The American people are like my momma. She’s 91 years old; she lives there in Greensboro. She tells me how proud she is of the work I’m doing for the country; she reminds me that my daddy was a fiscal conservative. And then she adds, ‘but don’t mess with my Medicare.’”
We both got a good laugh, and then returned to the serious issue of the national economic crisis.
It’s time to “eat our peas” … and our “Satan Sandwiches”
Throughout the debt ceiling debate, President Obama pushed for a larger deal in the $4 trillion range that included cuts and reforms in programs and services, including the Pentagon, Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security. He also advocated an increase in revenues coupled with tax reform that targeted the wealthiest Americans and corporations.
In mid-July, at a White House press conference, Obama reminded Republicans of the need for a big deal. “I’ve been hearing from my Republican friends for some time it is a moral imperative to tackle our debt and deficits in a serious way,” Mr. Obama said. “What I’ve said to them is, let’s go.” Then he added, “We might as well do it now; pull off the band aid. Eat our peas.”
If accepting a bigger bipartisan debt ceiling deal was analogous to eating peas for some, the smaller bipartisan debt ceiling deal was much more distasteful for others. Representative Emanuel Cleaver, II, D-Missouri, chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, described the debt ceiling bill as a “Satan sandwich.” “This is a Satan sandwich. There’s no question about it,” Cleaver said, “because there’s nothing inside this sandwich that the major religions of the world will say deals with protection for the poor, the widows, the children. It’s not in here.”
Call it what you will, but there is near-universal consensus today that the nation is at risk of going into default and becoming a second-rate world power unless everyone accepts the premise that “… the solutions are all painful, there is no easy way out … but we have to take it.”
The Tea Party forced a nation in denial to accept the consequences of sovereign debt, but must now end their own denial of the necessity of new revenue as a critical part of the shared sacrifice that is to become the remedy for recovery.
You’ve got to give it to them folks. The Tea Party has forced a nation in denial to see the negative consequences of sacred cow budgeting and unchecked borrowing. It took them six years of relentless rebellion to finally get the entire nation and all of its leaders … conservatives and liberals … to agree that the economic crisis could bring down our nation.
The Great Tea Party Rebellion of the 21st Century wrecked Republicans in 2006 and 2008, emasculated members of Congress at Town Halls in 2009, demolished Democrats in 2010, and leveled the leadership in the debt ceiling debate of 2011 … but it may crumble under the weight of callous recalcitrance in 2012.
In April 2008, Barack Obama alienated tens of millions of middle-income Americans frustrated over the government’s role in economic hard times with this statement at a San Francisco fundraiser: “It’s not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
What President Obama now knows is that they were “bitter” about leaders who said one thing and did another on economic issues … such as jobs and the stifling cost of government. They were “bitter” about Republicans who disappointed them time and again with their pork barrel spending and deficit spending. They were “bitter” about out-of-control growth of national indebtedness to foreign powers and the lack of political courage by Democrats and Republicans to take on structural deficiencies with entitlements like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Obama knows that his poor judgment in dismissing the “bitter” and putting his priorities ahead of the priorities of the voters cost the Democratic Party dearly throughout the nation in 2009 and 2011, and cost him personally in the loss of respect and support for his leadership.
If the Tea Party makes the same mistake, putting their priorities on revenues ahead of the priorities of the voters … jobs and sovereign economic stability … then they will suffer the same loss of respect and support as the President and the Democratic Party have had to face.
“I’m about to enter the tunnel,” Bowles said from his taxicab in New York City yesterday, “so I’ll talk to you later.” Although the conversation ended, I was keenly aware that the debate of the past few months was just a first step … just the beginning of the conversation that we must continue as a nation; just the beginning of a diet of “peas” and “Satan sandwiches;” a diet of sacrifices that we all must make … including the Tea Party … to restore the morale and confidence of consumers to spend again and investors to lend again and business to dust off those Now Hiring signs and hire again. May God bless the United States of America.
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[Audio clip: view full post to listen] “I don’t agree with Obama on everything, but I respect him and I trust him.” “Ed from North Carolina,” featured in President Obama’s re-election kickoff video, Monday, April 4, 2011 Obama’s 2012 Campaign Strategy Disclosed in Video Released Monday Shhhhhhhhhhh. If you want to get the inside scoop
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“I don’t agree with Obama on everything, but I respect him and I trust him.”
“Ed from North Carolina,” featured in President Obama’s re-election kickoff video, Monday, April 4, 2011
Obama’s 2012 Campaign Strategy Disclosed in Video Released Monday
Shhhhhhhhhhh. If you want to get the inside scoop on Obama’s 2012 campaign strategy, watch his kickoff video with the sound turned down. The images say it all: a farm, a church, a middle-income neighborhood, an American flag, Ed from North Carolina sitting on his front porch saying, “I don’t agree with Obama on everything, but I respect him and I trust him.” And then there are the mountains out West, a Hispanic family in the kitchen of their home, Obama speaking at a 2008 rally, a TV image of Fox News projecting Obama the winner of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, lots of young people attending volunteer meetings, volunteers registering new voters, canvassing door-to-door for support, and making voter turnout calls from a phone bank.
The Obama campaign kickoff video, released Monday, ends with the theme: It begins with us.
Strategically, it looks like the 2008 massive ground game again. But there’s one thing missing: enthusiastic volunteers. Barack Obama was one of the most inspirational presidential contenders in U.S. history, especially for the 18-29 year-olds who volunteered by the millions to do the hard work of registering voters; volunteers who turned out record numbers of voters on Election Day.
However, in 2009 we discovered that those enthusiastic Obama voters were not loyal Democrats when their failure to turn out led to the defeat of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey. Again, in January 2010, a low turnout of Obama voters led to the shocking loss of Ted Kennedy’s seat to Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts, and a devastating “shellacking” of Democrats last fall throughout the country.
So, why are the Obama strategists introducing their 2012 campaign for re-election with a video that suggests another ground game? The answer is in a dollar figure: $1 billion, the fund-raising goal for the 2012 race. You can buy a whole bunch of enthusiastic workers with $1 billion.
But, Can Obama Raise $1 Billion? “Ummm, this ain’t rocket surgery folks.”
President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign for the White House was a spectacular event. Using his skills honed as an inner city community organizer in Chicago, he won the race with 7 million more popular votes than any candidate in the history of presidential politics, employing 6,000 staffers who managed an all-volunteer army of 13 million enthusiastic workers.
Obama paid for his historic 2008 campaign by raising a $745 million campaign war chest, staggering when compared to the mere $368 million raised by the McCain camp; staggering when you consider that $500 million was raised online, most in increments of $100 or less.
David Plouffe, President Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, revealed their strategic secrets in his book The Audacity to Win. He tells the story of how a startup group of rag tag recruits defeated the dream teams of both the Democrats and the Republicans with a once-in-a-lifetime-candidate, a single powerful message, “Change,” and a website used to organize and communicate with staff and volunteers. Oh, also, a website used to raise money unlike any campaign.
In September 2008 alone, the Obama campaign raised $150 million; $100 million of that had been raised online as a result of 10 fund-raising e-mails. “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,”[1]wrote Plouffe.
The reason Obama launched his campaign on Monday, April 4, is that by filing papers with the Federal Election Commission he is now allowed to raise money. A New York Times story on Monday titled, Obama Opens 2012 Campaign, With Eye on Money and Independent Voters, says Obama, “… is preparing to undertake the most ambitious fund-raising effort by a sitting president.” What will the money be used for? “The money will not be used for television ads – this year, at least – but rather to hire an army of workers to begin organizing supporters.”
There you have it, a massive ground game. Obama’s role? Run the country and raise money.
Can Obama raise $1 billion? Well, he is starting early, he is the sitting President of the United States, he raised $745 million in 2008, and he is committed to the most ambitious fund-raising effort ever. As my favorite uncle once said, “This ain’t rocket surgery folks.”
We made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina
Throughout the primary, the Obama campaign defied conventional wisdom by targeting those least likely to vote … like younger white voters, independents, newly registered African-American voters, and African-American voters who had voted sporadically in the past.
In North Carolina, they invested heavily in early turnout of non-habitual voters with radio and Internet ads pushing early voting. They also sent e-mail and text messages to tens of thousands urging early voting; they called tens of thousands more and sent volunteers door-to-door.
On May 6, 2008, Primary Election Day exit polling here in North Carolina was so conclusive that the moment the polls closed the national networks declared Obama the winner over Clinton.
Plouffe recalls the 14-point blowout in his book this way: “As the returns came in, we could see the traces of our strategy’s design: by registering over 100,000 new voters, producing strong turnout among African-Americans and young voters, and winning college-educated whites thanks to our stand against the gas tax, we made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina.”[2]
Obama’s strategy for carrying North Carolina in November of 2008 was as unconventional as that of the May Primary Election. He knew he could not defeat a Republican presidential nominee in the Old North State with TV ads, no matter how much money he spent. His only hope was a massive ground game, registering and turning out non-traditional voters.
To carry out the unconventional strategy, the Obama campaign opened 47 headquarters in North Carolina and hired over 400 paid staff. These young professionals were responsible for a record early voting total of 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004), more voters than on Election Day. Seven out of 10 of the early voters were either Democrats (51%) or Unaffiliated (19%). African Americans comprised 28% of early voters, as compared to only 19% in 2004.
When the dust settled after Election Day, Obama had won North Carolina. For the first time since 1960, North Carolina had elected Democratic sweep to the White House, the Governor’s Mansion and the U.S. Senate in the same election year. An unconventional strategy produced an equally unconventional result: the first African American president, the first woman governor, and the first Democratic woman to represent the state in the U.S. Senate.
The $1 Billion Question: Can Obama Carry NC in 2012?
All of this brings me to the $1 billion question: Can Obama carry NC in 2012?
To answer that question, I need to remind you of this: John McCain was a weak nominee, too old and too boring; associated with one of the most unpopular presidents in U.S. history, and who blundered mightily by waiting until the last month to campaign in North Carolina.
If Republicans make that same mistake again, the answer is “yes,” Obama will surely invest a competitive amount of his $1 billion war chest in winning North Carolina and can surely win again with his unconventional ground game. Slight gains in the nation’s economic condition are beginning to be reported. If the economic trajectory is consistently upward, even if ever so slight, Obama’s job approval will return to 50% and he will win another term.
However, if Republicans field a strong presidential nominee … one who inspires the generosity of Republican donors and raises a conservative army of enthusiastic volunteers who will do the hard work of winning campaigns like registering and turning out voters, then the answer is “no,” Obama will not likely carry North Carolina again … even if he wins a second term handily.
Obama won North Carolina with only 14,177 out of 4.3 million. He did everything right and his opponent did everything wrong. The odds are that will not happen again.
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[1] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, page 327.
[2] The Audacity to Win, page 229.
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [Audio clip: view full post to listen] “The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls
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“The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…” John Davis Political Report, Nov. 2, 2010
Late Breaking Trends
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
All of the Kings Horses and All of the Kings Men
The loss of confidence in President Obama and the Democratic Party started in 2009
Post: Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends partisan advantage tracking charts and you will see that the GOP has a double-digit political momentum advantage in today’s elections in NC … and that they have sustained that advantage since the chart was created on August 16, 2010.
Here are 4 of the 12 variables from today’s Late Breaking Trends charts:
- Only 13% of Americans rate the economy as “Excellent/Good” (74% said so in 2001)
- 64% of Americans say the country is on the “wrong track;” 31% say “right track”
- 74% of Americans “disapprove” of the job the U.S. Congress is doing
- 56% of NC voters “disapprove” of the job Pres. Obama is doing; 41% “approve”
Adding to the overall malaise among North Carolina Democrats today is low favorability rating or Governor Bev Perdue. According to today’s Pollster.com, only 22.7% of North Carolinians have a favorable impression of Purdue.
Here are the latest headlining studies that make the case for a big GOP win today:
Oct. 28 – Republican Party Equals the Democratic Party’s 3rd Quarter Fundraising in NC: According to a study of 3rd quarter campaign finance reports by the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, “This year, Republicans have raised $3.3 million, and the Democrats took in $3.7 million in the 3rd quarter: much closer to a 1-to-1 match. By way of comparison, in the 3rd quarter of 2008, “the Republican Party raised $1.5 million and the Democratic Party raised almost $5.9 million: a 4-to-1 Democratic advantage.” If in fact Republicans have taken away the Democrats’ last line of defense, money, then the GOP will win a majority in both the NC Senate and NC House.
Oct. 31 – Republican 15-Point Advantage on Generic Ballot Unprecedented in Gallup History: On October 31, 2010, USA Today/Gallup released the results of a national poll conducted Oct. 28-31 showing a 15-point gap in likely voters favoring Republicans in U.S. Congressional races. The report concluded, “This year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations.”
Nov. 1 – GOP Early Voting Net 11 Points Over 2008 Turnout: A net 11% swing to the favor of Republicans in early voting this fall when compared to the fall of 2008 bodes well for the GOP in North Carolina today. In 2008, North Carolina Democrats made up 51% of those who voted early during the General Election. This fall, Democrats made up only 46% of those who voted early, for a net loss of 5% of total early voters when compared to 2008.
On the other hand, Republicans made up only 30% of the early voters in the fall of the 2008. This year, the percent of early voters who are Republican is up from 30% to 36%, for a net gain of 6% when compared to total early voters in the fall of 2008. A combination of the 6% gain by Republicans and the 5% loss by Democrats in early voting creates the 11-point GOP swing.
Nov. 2 – Republican 19-Point Enthusiasm Advantage Largest Midterm Gap in Decades: According to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Oct. 28-31, “The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points (63% of Republicans, including Republican-leaning independents, say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to only 44% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents).
May/June - Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010: In May and June of this year, I wrote a 10-part series on the political liabilities faced by the NC Democratic Party in 2010. Part 10, on the role President Obama played in creating the loss of enthusiasm among Democrats, was featured in yesterday’s John Davis Political Report.
If you agree that President Bush contributed greatly to the Republican losses in 2008, and that the Congressional Republicans contributed greatly to their losses in 2006 and 2008, then you will know where I am coming from with this conclusion:
What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
The Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the “Safety” Automaker; Perdue the “Ethics” Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative
#10: Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment
The loss of confidence in how President Obama and the Democrats in Congress are leading the country should have been abundantly clear a year ago with the election of Republican governors in Virginia and New Jersey. And certainly there could have been no doubt after the election of a Republican to Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts earlier this year.
The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…”
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Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Tuesday, November 2, 2010.
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win.
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
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“Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win. And that is what is happening in this state.” John Davis Political Report, April 13, 2010, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard
Late Breaking Trends
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
GOP Early Voting Net 11 Points Over 2008 Turnout
Advantage Shifts Significantly from Democratic to Republican in 2010
Post: Monday, Nov. 1, 2010, by John Davis
In 2008, North Carolina Democrats made up 51% of those who voted early between the dates of Oct. 16 and Nov. 1. This fall, Democrats made up only 46% of those who voted early since Oct. 14, for a net loss of 5% of total early voters when compared to 2008.
Republicans made up only 30% of the early voters in the fall of the 2008. This year, the percent of early voters who are Republican is up from 30% to 36%, for a net gain of 6% when compared to total early voters in the fall of 2008.
A net 11% swing to the favor of the GOP this fall, coupled with last week’s big news about campaign funding near parity, bodes well for North Carolina Republicans tomorrow.
The 2010 numbers are from the following AP story on turnout of early voters:
http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/10/31/772524/950000-voters-have-already-cast.html
Is the NC Democratic Party the Toyota of State Politics?
Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to Loss of Voter Market Share
John N. Davis, President
In May of this year, I wrote a 10-part series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company in that they are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders.
The report lead to the following conclusion: Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win. And that is what is happening in this state.
The following paragraph is restated for emphasis: What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
The Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to Loss of Voter Market Share are:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker; Perdue the Ethics Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative
#10: Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment
What follows is report #10. All reports are available at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
Written in May, 2010
Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointments
“What’s disappointing to me,” said Stupak, “is learning that Toyota seems to have focused more on discrediting its critics than on solving the problem.” Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Michigan, May 20, 2010; U.S. House Commerce Committee Hearing on Toyota’s sudden acceleration problems[i]
Obama’s inspiring oratory and hopeful message of change during the 2008 presidential race moved tens of millions from every walk of life to believe that he would be different; that he would be far greater than his predecessor.
And certainly President Obama would be able to manage a disaster better than the way President Bush handled Katrina. But now, in the aftermath of a catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf, what we see is a vulnerable and defensive leader with approval ratings plummeting to new lows.[ii]
North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as he did in 2008. Instead, what they have is just another bumbling president betrayed by his gift for gab … a mere mortal walking on oily water in a sea of disappointments.
Obama Disappoints: Average Weekly Job Approval Reaches All-Time Low in June
The great hope for change in Washington has been reduced to great disappointments following political disaster after political disaster. It’s little wonder that President Obama’s job approval rating is only 44%, a 52-week low. According to Gallup, Obama’s weekly average job approval has reached a new low as well, 46%, from a weekly average of 65% this time a year ago.[iii]
- He ran as a man of great courage but has become a defensive scapegoater
- He ran as a friend of the environmentalists but authorized more offshore drilling
- He ran as a dove but has morphed into a hawk on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
- He ran as a uniter but has become a partisan wrecking ball with his legislative agenda
- He ran as a centrist but is governing as a liberal surrounded by liberals
- He ran as a man of the people but put his priority, healthcare, ahead of their priority, jobs
- He ran as a man who would close Gitmo and would not hire lobbyists … ha!
- He ran as a leader committed to fiscal responsibility but is overseeing a doubling of the national debt (projected at $19 trillion by 2015); “unsustainable” said Bernanke 6/10
- He ran against Wall Street but recapitalized their bonuses with taxpayer money
- He ran as an economic and jobs stimulator but unemployment/underemployment is still at 20%,[iv] with almost all of the new jobs in May being temporary with the Census Bureau
- He said his would be the most transparent administration in history yet he manages the news media with connivances, stonewalling and defensive double-speak
Obama would be well served to closet himself for a while at the White House and ponder Ralph Waldo Emerson’s sage caution, “What you are speaks so loudly, I cannot hear what you say.”
Where’s the Unlimited Money? The Paid Staff? The Enthusiastic Volunteers?
Democrats won many races in 2008 thanks to Obama’s oratorical skills and the disdain voters had for the Bush administration. Obama’s ability to inspire led to record fundraising and ultimately to the millions of dollars invested by his campaign in our state. Unlimited money brought hundreds of field staff to North Carolina who managed thousands of enthusiastic volunteers who succeeded in registering and turning out a record-breaking number of voters.
Nationally, the Obama campaign raised a staggering $782 million, employed 6,000 staffers who managed an all-volunteer army of 13 million Americans. In September 2008 alone, they raised $100 million online as a result of 10 e-mails. “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,”[v] writes David Plouffe, President Obama’s campaign manager, in his book The Audacity to Win.
Why did Obama’s national fundraising success matter here in North Carolina in 2008? “Every additional dime was being funneled into battleground states,” said Plouffe. He recalled the Primary Election Day in North Carolina when Obama defeated Clinton by 14 points. “As the returns came in, we could see the traces of our strategy’s design: by registering over 100,000 new voters, producing strong turnout among African-Americans and young voters, and winning college-educated whites …. we made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina.”[vi]
During the fall of 2008, the Obama campaign had 47 headquarters in our state, with over 400 paid staff in the twenty-something age group. These junior operatives were responsible for record early voting totaling 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004). More voters voted early than voted on Election Day!
Where is the inspired oratory in 2010? The record-breaking fundraising? The hundreds of paid staff? The thousands of volunteers working tirelessly to register and turn out Democrats?
Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Michigan, said on May 20, 2010, during the U.S. House Commerce Committee Hearing on Toyota’s sudden acceleration problems, “What’s disappointing to me is learning that Toyota seems to have focused more on discrediting its critics than on solving the problem. [vii] Likewise, what’s disappointing to so many who were inspired by candidate Obama in 2008 is that President Obama seems to have focused more on discrediting his critics than on accepting responsibility for solving the problems of the day.
North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as he did in 2008. Instead, what they have is just another bumbling president betrayed by his gift for gab … a mere mortal walking on oily water in a sea of disappointments.
END
[i] http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter
[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx
[iii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx
[iv] http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx June 10, 2010
[v] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, Pg 327.
[vi] Ibid, Pg 229
[vii] http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter
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Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Monday, November 1, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
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Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [Audio clip: view full post to listen] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: See handicap for all 50 NC Senate races and 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors
[More...]
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary
“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: See handicap for all 50 NC Senate races and 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily graphics above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64
Post: October 28, 2010 (Friday, October 29, 2010 UPDATE)
NC House GOP Caucus Likely Majority Party: NC House GOP Caucus can count on 64 Seats in the 120-member NC House of Representatives, 66 seats if the 4 toss-up races split evenly. All political indicators … money, momentum, turnout and political warfare leadership … point to a GOP majority after next Tuesday’s elections.
Investors Political Daily Chart: Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House report and you will see that Tom Murry, Morrisville Town Councilman and Republican nominee in Wake County House District 41, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Chris Heagarty, D-Wake.
Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Johnny Dawkins, Fayetteville City Councilman and Republican nominee in Cumberland County House District 44, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland.
UPDATED FRIDAY, OCT. 29: According to a new SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 25-26 for the Civitas Institute, ”Republican candidate Johnny Dawkins is maintaining his lead over Democratic Rep. Diane Parfitt in the state House District 44 race – comprised of Cumberland County.
Of the 300 voters surveyed, 49 percent said they would vote for Dawkins if the election for state representative were today. Forty-four percent said they would vote for Parfitt, and 7 percent are undecided.
However, among those who are most likely to vote in 2010, Dawkin’s lead increases to 56 percent-37 percent.”
The Civitas news release, dated today, Oct. 29, also noted that Rep. Rick Glazier, D-Cumberland, is now trailing his GOP opponent, Jackie Warner, R-Cumberland, by 10 percent (Warner 51%; Glazier 41%). Warner is the wife of former Rep. Alex Warner.
This race has been moved to “toss up” on today’s Investors Political Daily NC House report.
NOTE: All 120 NC House races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 29 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 22 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 64 wins next Tuesday, 66 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 61 seats in the 120-member House to rule.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 28 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 12 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 51 wins next Tuesday, 53 if they split the 5 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a double-digit partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was written Wednesday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
· Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
· Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
· Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
· Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [Audio clip: view full post to listen] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors
[More...]
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary
“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily report graphics above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC Senate Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 29
Post: October 29, 2010
No changes since last week’s Investors Political Daily NC Senate report, which showed the NC Senate Republican Caucus with a likely majority of 29 senators. All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 11 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 7 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 29 wins next Tuesday, with a possibility of 30 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 26 seats in the 50-member Senate to rule.
NOTE: All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have only 1 candidate with NO OPPOSITION, 16 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 1 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 18 wins next Tuesday, 20 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy an 18-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
The Big Differences between 2008 and 2010: The big differences in Senate races this year are money, momentum and leadership:
- The Senate Democratic Caucus’ national model political war machine fall apart with a half-dozen key retirements, especially the loss of the old war general Tony Rand.
- The Senate Republican Caucus has grown exponentially in strength and effectiveness in all areas of campaign fundamentals this cycle, from recruiting and fundraising to strategic planning and united leadership.
- Republicans have the political momentum advantage.
- Republicans have neutralized the one advantage that Democrats have always managed to dominate and parlay into winning the majority: money.
- Democratic scandals, involving Senators and caucus alums including Tony Rand, R.C. Soles and Gov. Beverly Perdue, have been a major distraction.
- Governor Perdue is a drag on all Democratic candidates with her dismal 21% “Favorable” rating.
- The big money corporate folks are hedging their bets and helping Republicans big time.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was written yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
- Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
- Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
- Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
- Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.
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