John Davis Consulting

NH Gov. Chris Sununu on Why Fellow Anti-Trump Republicans Will Support Him No Matter What

April 16, 2024       Vol. XVII, No. 3       2:13 pm

“I’m supporting not just the president, but the Republican administration.”

Many Democrats are having a difficult time understanding why so many Republicans are continuing to support Donald Trump for president despite his seemingly endless list of alleged transgressions. However, having watched politics my entire life, it’s as simple as the rhetorical question, Do you really think that Republicans should have allowed Hillary Clinton to win the White House and pick those three US Supreme Court justices who tilted the court to the right and overturned Roe v. Wade?

In other words, it’s ideological; it’s about conservative notions of right and wrong that are far more important than the elected officials carrying the flag in the front of the parade. Here is an example:

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire does not like Donald Trump. After the January 6, 2021 rioting at the US Capitol, Sununu issued a statement saying there is no doubt “that President Trump’s rhetoric and actions contributed to the insurrection.”

Last year, Gov. Sununu enthusiastically endorsed former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley against Trump in the GOP primary race. And just this past Sunday, on ABC’s “This Week,” Sununu reiterated to George Stephanopoulos his conclusion that Trump was complicit in January 6.

So, why is Sununu now enthusiastically supporting Trump? The answer is in these select responses, edited for brevity, to questions from the interview Sunday with George Stephanopoulos:

GS Question: Will your support for Donald Trump continue even if he’s convicted in Manhattan?

Gov. Sununu: “Yeah, look, this — this trial is not going to have major political ramifications; people see it more as reality TV.”

“No one should be surprised by my support.” “I’m supporting not just the president, but the Republican administration.”

“For me, it’s not about [Trump] as much as it is having a Republican administration — Republican secretaries, Republican rules, a sense of where states’ rights come first, individual rights come first, parents’ rights come first.”

“At the end of the day, [many in America] want that culture change of the Republican Party, and if we have Trump as the standard bearer — we’ll take it if we have to. That’s how badly America wants a culture change.”

In his final question, George Stephanopoulos asked Gov. Chris Sununu if he would continue to support Trump for president even if he is convicted in the classified documents case and the Manhattan hush money case, and even though Sununu believes that Trump contributed to the “insurrection” on January 6 and lied about the last election being stolen.

Gov. Sununu replied, “Yes, me and 51 percent of America.”

Trump leads Biden in the states that matter most

Forty of the 50 states are predictable. They have voted for the same party in at least the last four presidential races. We know Vermont is going to vote for the Democratic nominee and Wyoming for the Republican. Only ten states, including North Carolina, have flipped parties in their presidential choice since 2008. That was the year North Carolinians voted for Democrat Barack Obama. North Carolina has voted Republican ever since.

Nationally, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average shows Trump at 42% in a five-way race. Biden has 40.2%; third-party candidates Kennedy (9.3%), West (1.6%), and Stein (1.5%). In a two-way race, Biden and Trump are tied at about 45% each. We are truly an equally divided nation.

But national polls are irrelevant to the Electoral College, where 270 votes are needed to win the presidency. Biden has a predictable 226 votes; Trump 219. They will need to make up the difference in the seven battleground states in order to get to 270 votes.

Polling in the seven battleground states, where it matters the most, shows Trump leading Biden in all but one. Here is today’s RCP spread in each state: Arizona (Trump +4.5%), Georgia (Trump +3.8%), Michigan (Trump +2.8%), Nevada (Trump +3.2%), North Carolina (Trump +4.0%), Pennsylvania (Biden +0.1%), and Wisconsin (Trump +0.6%).

To understand why Trump is leading Biden despite his many trials and tribulations, consider Gallup’s latest poll showing that the most important problems facing the nation are immigration and the economy. Per RCP, only 32.2% “Approve” of the job Biden is doing with immigration; only 39.7% approve of how Biden is handling the economy.

Gov. Sununu summed up why fellow anti-Trump Republicans will support him no matter what when he said this past Sunday on ABC, “It’s not about just supporting Trump. It’s getting rid of what we have today. It’s about understanding that inflation is crushing families. It’s understanding that this border issue is not a Texas issue. It’s a 50-state issue, right, that has to be brought under control.”

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Check John Davis’s availability to speak at www.johndavisconsulting.com

Despite Trump’s Caustic Criticism the Nation’s Legal System May Be His Best Hope for a Second Term

February 29, 2024       Vol. XVII, No. 2       9:13 pm

Running Against “The System” is Right Out of Trump’s 2016 Playbook

Next Tuesday, March 5, 2024, former president Donald Trump will win North Carolina’s GOP presidential primary, as well as the presidential nomination contests in all other Super Tuesday states, including Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. He has already won Iowa with 51%, New Hampshire with 54%, South Carolina with 60%, and Michigan with 68% of the vote.

Trump is winning because MAGA Republicans, now the dominant GOP voting bloc, think he’s the best candidate to go to Washington and break a fixed system; a system they believe is rigged for insiders at the expense of the working class. It’s the same “rigged system” Trump railed against when he defeated insider Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Looking back to the March 15, 2016 GOP presidential primary in North Carolina, Donald Trump won with 40% in a 12-candidate field. He went on to defeat Hillary Clinton in the North Carolina General Election contest by 49.8% to 46.2%.

Great insight into Trump’s upset victory can be found in a July 2016 post by liberal activist Michael Moore titled Five Reasons Trump Will Win. Moore predicted Trump would win the presidential race, carrying the states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, because of working class anger against “the system.” Appearing on Meet the Press, October 2, 2016, Moore said, “A lot of people are angry. And they see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”

Now, eight years later, Donald Trump is still winning presidential primaries and caucuses with his pitch that “the system” is corrupted against the interests of MAGA voters. Last week, on February 24, Trump spoke at the Black Conservative Federation’s annual gala, claiming that he, like Black Americans, had been discriminated against by the “legal system.”

“I’m being indicted for you, the American people. I’m being indicted for you, the Black population. I am being indicted for a lot of different groups by sick people, these are sick, sick people,” Trump said to the Black conservatives, referring to his 91 felony charges (44 federal charges and 47 state charges).

The Legal System is Likely Why Trump Will Either Stay or Go

The fact is, barring a health crisis, the legal system is the most likely reason Donald Trump will either get out or stay in the presidential race before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, July 15-18, 2024.

For instance, Trump may drop out of the presidential race due to a financial crisis, like a business decision to file for bankruptcy, resulting from millions in penalties owed, like the $454 million from the New York civil fraud verdict in February, and Jean Carroll’s $83 million defamation judgment.

But then, the legal system may also be the reason Trump is in a position to stay in the presidential race. He may win his appeal to have the “egregious fine” (his lawyer’s words) of $454 million deemed “excessive” and therefore unconstitutional under the 8^th Amendment to the US Constitution.

The legal system could also give Trump a favorable ruling in the attempts by state officials in Colorado, Maine and yesterday Illinois to have Trump disqualified from the state’s ballot based on their determination that he participated in an insurrection on January 6, 2021.

At the US Supreme Court hearing on February 8, liberal Justice Elena Kagan signaled a likely favorable decision for Trump when she raised the question, “What’s a state doing deciding who other citizens get to vote for for president?”

The legal system may derail the Georgia election fraud case if the Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is disqualified for lying about details of when her affair with special prosecutor Nathan Wade began. The case alleging that Trump and 14 others conspired to overthrow the 2020 presidential race may be postponed until after the November elections.

And the legal system may dismiss the criminal case charging Donald Trump with the mishandling of classified documents based on his claim of presidential immunity. Trump says he cannot be prosecuted for what amounted to an “official act” while serving as president. Presidential immunity is also a reason Trump insists that he cannot be prosecuted for anything he did or didn’t do leading up to and during the January 6 rioting at the US Capitol.

The legal system is why the United States has not merely survived our 248-year experiment in self-governance, it is why we continue to surmount obstacles to equal rights and universal fairness under the law for all Americans.

The legal system is the last great hope for American ideals

The legal system is the last great hope for American ideals, especially the ideal of equal protection under the law. One of the most celebrated landmark cases in the history of the nation’s highest court began when a high school dropout named Clarence Earl Gideon, who had lived a life of homelessness and larceny, wrote a petition to the US Supreme Court on prison letterhead with a pencil arguing that he was denied a constitutional right to counsel.

The landmark case, Gideon v. Wainwright, was a 9-0 ruling in 1963 that a poor defendant is entitled to representation in state court under the Sixth Amendment and that states could not deny them that right under the 14th Amendment.

But the constitutional ideal of equal protection under the law is for very wealthy Americans too, even foul-mouthed, narcissistic Americans like Trump who can afford to spend $76 million on attorney fees in the last two years, per a February 2, 2024 Associated Press analysis of Federal Election Commission filings.

Ironically, the very system that Trump decries as unfair is the system that is now his best hope for staying in the president race. His political and personal fortunes are now in the hands of a legal system that despite his degradation has stood the test of time.

Since the first meeting of the US Supreme Court in New York City on February 2, 1790, the court has overruled only 235 of its 30,863 decisions ending with the 2023 term. For emphasis: only .0076% of the US Supreme Court’s decisions have been overruled by a subsequent decision.

The integrity of the legal system of the United States is based on the fact that a billionaire former president with an MBA from Wharton like Donald John Trump will be treated no more or no less fairly than a penniless petty thief who dropped out of high school like Clarence Earl Gideon.

Despite Trump’s caustic criticism, the nation’s legal system may be his best hope for a second term.

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Check John Davis’s availability to speak at www.johndavisconsulting.com

See Raleigh Kiwanis Speech here.

Like Lemmings to the Sea Republicans Follow Democrats Off the Cliff with Mayorkas Impeachment

January 31, 2024       Vol. XVII, No. 1       2:13 pm

Partisan Impeachments are a Fool’s Errand  

Last night, just after midnight, 18 Republicans and 0 Democrats on the US House Homeland Security Committee voted to advance two articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, accusing him of  “breach of trust” and “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law.” And just like that, a fool’s errand of another partisan impeachment began.

If there is any doubt of the foolishness of a partisan impeachment, look no further than this day four years ago, in January 2020, when the entire nation was engrossed in the first impeachment trial of President Donald Trump. Although Trump was the third president to be impeached (Andrew Johnson, 1868; Bill Clinton, 1999), he was the first to be impeached solely along partisan lines.

When Rep. Al Green, D-TX, and a growing number of House Democrats began to push for Trump’s impeachment, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, pushed back. “Unless there’s something so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan, I don’t think we should go down that path because it divides the country,” she told The Washington Post.  On a partisan impeachment Pelosi said in an interview with CNBC, “Many people would think it’s being done for political reasons.”

But angry Democrats bent on taking Trump down at any cost persisted. Rep. Al Green, D-TX, said the quiet part out loud during a July 2019 interview with NBC News, “I’m concerned if we don’t impeach this president, he will get reelected.”

In September 2019, Speaker Pelosi relented. It was a big mistake.

Zero Republican Support for Articles of Impeachment

In December 2019, there were four votes in the US House on the two articles of impeachment, Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress. Not one single Republican voted with the Democrats either in committee or on the floor.

The US House Judiciary Committee voted twice on December 13, 2019, once for each of the two articles of impeachment. The result both times was 23 Democrats and 0 Republicans.

Then, on December 18, 2019, the full House voted to approve the two articles of impeachment. The vote on Article 1, Abuse of Power, was 229 “Yea” and 197 “Nay.” The total number of Republicans voting “Yea,” was 0. The vote on Article 2, Obstruction of Congress, was 228 “Yea” and 198 “Nay.” The total number of Republicans voting “Yea,” was 0.

By way of contrast, in 1998, 31 US House Democrats voted with the US House Republican majority for the impeachment inquiry against President Bill Clinton, a Democrat. Clinton’s trial ended with ten Republican Senators joining 45 Democratic senators in voting Clinton “Not Guilty.” That’s bipartisan consensus.

In 1974, the US House voted 410-4 for an impeachment inquiry against President Richard Nixon over the Watergate Scandal. That’s 242 Democrats and 188 of 192 Republicans. Bipartisan consensus is why Nixon resigned.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi was right when she warned her caucus that unless there was something “compelling and bipartisan” that they should not go down the impeachment path.

Only One of 53 Republican Senators Voted “Guilty”

In January 2020, Democrats went to trial against President Trump in the US Senate needing 20 Republican Senators to vote with the 47 Democrats to reach the required 67 for a conviction.

The chief prosecutor was Rep. Adam Schiff, D-CA, lead impeachment manager. His pleas were impassioned. Do the right thing. For the sake of the country. When the vote was counted, only Sen. Mitt Romney, R-UT voted with the Democrats. Schiff’s vindictive anger and fatal egotistical assessment of his persuasive skills were unmasked. The fool’s errand of a partisan impeachment revealed.

Rep. Adam Schiff, as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee, is the same representative who wrongly insisted that then-President Trump was guilty of collusion with the Russians during the 2016 campaign for president. “You can see evidence in plain sight on the issue of collusion, pretty compelling evidence,” Schiff said to Dana Bash on “State of the Union.”

It’s no wonder Rep. Adam Schiff was censured by the US House on June 21, 2023 for abusing his trust by spreading false allegations, behaving dishonestly and dishonorably, lying and distorting the facts regarding the Russian Collusion debacle and President Trump’s first impeachment.

The only political consequence of the impeachment trial turned out to be good for the embattled President. Per Gallup polling conducted during the heat of the trial (January 16 to 29), Trump’s job approval had “risen to 49%, his highest in Gallup polling since he took office in 2017.” The poll also found that 52% of Americans favored acquitting Trump, to only 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office. (Trump lost reelection due to Covid and losing suburban women who were turned off by his foul-mouth and his narcissistic tantrums, not because of the partisan impeachment.)

By the time President Trump delivered his third State of the Union address on February 4, 2020, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was so infuriated that she ripped her copy of the speech as she stood behind the President. She had struck out. No Russian collusion. No obstruction. No impeachment conviction.

The next day, February 5, 2020, the Senate acquitted President Trump on both articles of impeachment. It was a partisan impeachment from the start.

Hopefully, GOP Speaker Mike Johnson will remember Democrat Speaker Pelosi’s fool’s errand of a partisan impeachment in 2020 and can stop the misguided members of the Republican caucus from making the same mistake with the Mayorkas Impeachment of 2024.

Otherwise, like lemmings to the sea, House Republicans will tumble off the same political cliff Democrats found themselves at the bottom of after their disastrous Trump impeachment of 2020.

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Check John Davis’s availability to speak at www.johndavisconsulting.com

Rare Dual Conservative Dominance on US & NC Supreme Courts Likely for Years to Come

May 31, 2023       Vol. XVI, No. 3       10:13 am

Dozens of federal and state precedents will be overruled

Conservative Through 2028: This is a unique era in which both our federal and state Supreme Courts are solidly conservative at the same time, and are likely to stay that way for years to come.

The NC Supreme Court is 5-2 conservative. Conservatives will have an advantage on the state Supreme Court for a minimum of the next five years.

Not including Republican Chief Justice Paul Newby, two Republican Justices, Berger and Barringer, do not have to stand for election until 2028; two Republican Justices, Dietz and Allen, do not have to stand for election until 2030. That guarantees the court will be a minimum of 4-3 conservative through 2028. But it’s more likely to stay 5-2 conservative through 2028.

By law, Republican Chief Justice Newby faces mandatory retirement at the age of 72 in May 2027. If there is a Democratic governor, a Democrat will be appointed Chief Justice, leaving the state’s  high court with a four-seat Republican majority: Justices Berger, Barringer, Dietz and Allen.

However, odds are that the North Carolina General Assembly will change the mandatory retirement age from 72 years to 75 years before Chief Justice Newby faces required retirement in 2027. If that happens, Republicans will be guaranteed a 5-2 majority through 2028. Maybe even more.

The only justices to stand for election in 2024 and 2026 are the two lone Democrats, Justices Morgan and Earls respectively. Morgan has announced that he is not seeking another term next year. A GOP win would mean the court would become 6-1 Republican through 2028. (Context: Democrats enjoyed a 6-1 majority on the NC Supreme Court in 2020.)

New GOP-Friendlier Maps Certain: You can count on new federal and state maps soon. That means the 14 congressional districts will shift from 7 Republican friendly, 6 Democratic friendly and 1 tossup, to possibly a 10-seat Republican-friendly delegation with 1 tossup seat and 3 safe Democratic seats. Safe Democrats: Rep. Adams, Metrolina Region; Rep. Foushee, Triad; and Rep. Ross, Triangle.

The Republican General Assembly will also likely gerrymander new legislative districts that will guarantee GOP super majorities for the remainder of the decade. And you can count on the 5-2 GOP-majority NC Supreme Court to rule that any new GOP-gerrymandered districts are constitutional.

On April 28, 2023, the 5-2 Republican NC Supreme Court overruled last year’s 4-3 Democratic NC Supreme Court’s decision against GOP-gerrymandered maps. They have also overruled the Democrat-majority court’s ruling against voter-ID law.

The governor has no veto authority over anything to do with reapportionment, and the US Supreme Court is no longer taking partisan gerrymandering cases. So, Republican-friendlier maps are inevitable.

US Supreme Court on a Conservative Tear: The US Supreme Court is 6-3 conservative, and on a precedent-altering tear. Last year, they overturned abortion rights, struck down a New York law that limited guns in public, rejected Maine’s ban on state aid to religious schools, and sided with a coach over a right to say a prayer on the 50 yard line after the football game.

Before June is over, the court is likely to overturn a 2003 ruling allowing race to be considered as a factor in college admissions in cases involving policies at UNC and Harvard. The court will also likely rule conservatively on a religious liberty issue, whether a website designer is required to design a wedding website for a same-sex couple despite religious convictions against homosexuality.

All in all, a unique conservative era on the state and federal Supreme Court, both at the same time, and likely for years to come.

If you are conservative, break out the champagne. If you are not, my only recommendation is Goody’s Extra Strength Headache Powder.

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Check John Davis’s availability to speak in 2023 at www.johndavisconsulting.com

Fifty-Year Search for First Black Cast to Compete in the Mississippi High School Drama Festival

February 16, 2023

Marion Central Dramatics Club 1969

In honor of Black History Month, I would like to depart from my political commentary and tell you a personal story about my experiences while teaching sixth grade English from 1968 to 1970 at an all-Black school prior to integration in Marion County, Mississippi. The rural county school, named Marion Central, had a high school wing and an elementary school wing separated by an enclosed walkway.

One day, the Marion Central High School Dramatics Club teacher came to my elementary school classroom and asked me to help with the school play. She had found out that in addition to English, I majored in theater at William Carey College in Hattiesburg, Mississippi.

I went to see my principal, Mr. Odell James, to ask permission to work with the high school drama group. After several days, Mr. James informed me that he had worked out a schedule that freed me up three days a week for one hour each day to work with the cast of five 15-year-old high school sophomores on a one-act play called The Clod.

After six weeks of rehearsing the 20-minute play three days a week, building set pieces like a stairway with a banister handrail, perfecting makeup for age, and collecting props like a potbelly stove, an oil lantern, and a pistol, we finally presented the play to the student body. They loved it.

I was so impressed with the quality of the acting by the cast and their commitment to getting everything right, that I decided to try to enter the play in the Mississippi High School Drama Festival. The drama festival was a statewide competition of one-act plays that began with eight regional contests. The eight regional winners competed in the finals for statewide drama awards.

Unfortunately, in 1969 Mississippi public schools were still completely segregated. Black schools did not compete in the Mississippi High School Drama Festival. Black and White sports teams did not compete against one other. Teachers at White schools were members of the Mississippi Education Association. Teachers at Black schools were members of the Mississippi Teachers Association.

Nothing to do with public schools was integrated in 1969 in Mississippi. Those were still the days of White Only and Colored Only water fountains and bathrooms in public places like the Marion County Courthouse. Nonetheless, I got permission from the high school principal, Mr. Rosevelt Otis, to send the application to the regional competition along with the $25 entry fee.

Our application was accepted. We did not know if the contest officials knew Marion Central was a Black school, or whether we would be allowed to compete when they found out. What we did know is that we had a competitive one-act play, and we were going to show up at the regional competition.

Not only did Marion Central dare to show up on the day of the regional competition, but Marion Central, the only Black school competing, defeated 14 white schools in winning First-Place Best Actress, First Place Best Actor, and First-Place Best Play.

Winning the regional competition qualified Marion Central to compete in the Mississippi High School Drama Festival Finals at Mississippi State University in Starkville, Mississippi, located 200 miles away in Northeast Mississippi. The only hotel that allowed Blacks at that time was the Holiday Inn, which is where we stayed. It was such a broadening experience for the students.

None of the kids had ever been that far away from home. None had ever stayed in a hotel or ordered dinner from a menu in a restaurant where they were served by a White waitress.

The next morning, we sat in the back of the university auditorium and watched the first four of the eight regional winners present their plays. After lunch, it was our turn. Contestants were allowed 10 minutes to set up their set pieces and 20-minutes for the play. With curtains closed, we wheeled out the cast-iron potbelly stove and the stairs with the banister rails. The lantern was lit. The curtains opened.

The other schools didn’t know what to expect. The White students had never seen a cast of Black students perform a play. I knew what to expect. We had worked nearly three months perfecting the acting, timing, makeup and staging. I held my breath for 20 minutes. The performance was flawless.

When the awards ceremony was held late that afternoon, Marion Central won First Place Best Actress, Second Place Best Actor and Third Place Best Play. We drove 200 miles back to our rural, South Mississippi county with three of the seven awards presented at the 1969 Mississippi High School Drama Festival Finals. We were so excited. So proud to be from Marion Central.

And now, for the rest of the story

In January 1970, Mississippi schools were required by court order to integrate. No more delays. It had been fifteen years since the Supreme Court ruled in Brown v. Board of Education that segregation of public schools was unconstitutional. Mississippi had spent the entire time fighting integration and no time planning for the inevitable. Now they had to integrate. Right then. No more litigation.

During the Christmas holidays, the county superintendent notified all of the teachers and administrators that we were to attend a meeting in the White school gymnasium to find out where we would be teaching now that we had to integrate.

When I arrived, all the teachers from the White school were sitting on the gym bleachers together at a distance from the Marion Central teachers. The superintendent and the four county principals were standing behind a table on the gym floor with a cardboard box on top of the table.

The superintendent began by introducing the four principals. He introduced the White principals as Mr. and Mr., and then introduced the two Black principals as Roosevelt and Odell. I was shocked that he would insult our principals in front of everyone in such a disrespectful way. But then I could tell by the way he carried on, that he had no idea that what he did was insulting to Mr. Roosevelt Otis and Mr. Odell James. His introduction of White and Black principals was customary at that time in the Old South states that had been aligned during the American Civil War of 1861-1865.

After the introduction of the principals, the superintendent began the meeting by saying that they had not made any plans for integration, and that in order to be fair, each principal would take turns drawing names of teachers out of the cardboard box until all names were drawn. He said that we would go with our principal to that school from January through May until they could sort things out in the summer and get better organized for the fall of 1970.

The principal who drew my name was Mr. Mabrey, a tall, lanky principal with a weathered face and raspy voice. Mr. Mabrey was principal of Bunker Hill, an all-White, first through eighth grade school in a white wooden building located on the White side of the county.

The first day the newly assigned Bunker Hill teachers met with Mr. Mabrey, he informed us that no plans had been made for integration, and that in order to be fair, each teacher, in order of seniority, would take turns writing their initials on the blackboard out by the names of the classes they wanted to teach. He started with teachers who had taught over 25 years, then 20 to 25 years, and so on.

As I had only been teaching since 1968, I had to take what was left on the blackboard. My teaching assignment from January 1970 through May 1970 was the following: 8th Grade American History, 7th Grade Science, 8th Grade Girls PE, 6th Grade Boys PE, and two Study Halls.

Over the next few years, students and teachers were scattered by integration and eventually many of us lost touch. I got into political work through the Marion County DA, Maurice Dantin, who ran for governor in 1975. Eventually, I developed a professional interest in political analysis, which took me to over half the states in the country and almost four decades of living in North Carolina.

I had forgotten their names

As the years went by, ten years, twenty years, forty years, I forgot the names of the five sophomore students I directed in the one-act play, The Clod; that all-Black cast of high school students to who won three of the seven awards at the Mississippi High School Drama Festival Finals in 1969.

However, as poet Maya Angelou said, you never forget how people made you feel. Those five sophomore students, along with my sixth grade English students and the rest of the faculty and administrators, have always made me feel so proud to say that I was from Marion Central.

In 2019, the year of the 50th anniversary of the Mississippi High School Drama Festival of 1969, I started thinking about those five cast members every day. I wanted to catch up with them. To see how their lives turned out. I tried to no avail to remember their names. It had simply been too long.

Then one day, I remembered that The Columbian-Progress, the newspaper in Columbia, the county seat, had written a story about the Marion Central Dramatics Club winning top honors in the state drama festival. I went online and found a website that for $5 would give me access to a list of all the newspapers that had Internet-based searchable archives. I paid the $5 with my credit card and held my breath as I scanned the list for The Columbian-Progress. I was so excited to see that it was on the list; that it had a searchable archives dating back to 1955.

I clicked on the link to The Columbian-Progress archives and typed in the search box, “Marion Central Dramatics Club state champions.” I pressed enter. I wanted so badly to read the story, to see if I remembered everything correctly. To see the names. Then, there it was. The Columbian-Progress, Thursday, March 27, 1969. The headline read, “Marion Central Dramatic Club Takes Three of Seven Awards.” There they were, the long forgotten names of the cast. “The cast includes Etta Watts, who won the coveted Best Actress Award, E.J. Youngblood, winner of the Second Best Actor Award; Odell James, Jr., Sammy Whalum, and Willie Parker.” Now I had their names!

I decided to start by tracking down Etta Watts, thinking that the guys would have been more likely to leave the county in pursuit of jobs or the military. I went to the White Pages website and typed in, “Etta Watts, Columbia, Mississippi.” When I hit enter, about a dozen names came up. Lots of names with the last name Watts, but none with the name Etta. Then I noticed that for an extra nine dollars you can get cell phone numbers. I decided that I would get the cell phone numbers and send text messages with hopes someone would reply who could help me track down Etta.

I’m not sure why I chose the name I chose for the first text message. Her name was not Etta, and her last name was not Watts. But I sent a text message to that person that read, “My name is John Davis. I directed Etta Watts in a play at Marion Central in 1969. Just wanted to catch up. Are you Etta Watts?”

I waited. Five minutes; 10 minutes. A half-hour. An hour. Just as I was about to give up and try a different name, I received a reply to my text message. The reply read, “I am her daughter. Here is her phone number. She’s anxious to talk with you.”

I called Etta right away. The last time I had talked to her she was 15 years old. Now she was 67 years old. I’m sure we talked for at least a half hour before ending with her agreeing to help me track down the four guys in the cast. That led to equally wonderful phone calls reminiscing with three of the other four cast members. Willie Parker, who had been a professional truck driver, had passed.

I sent everyone copies of the news stories about the play in The Columbian-Progress. I was able to find copies of The Clod on Amazon and sent it to everyone. Over the next two years, we stayed in touch by text. We wished each other happy holidays. Easter, Christmas, New Year’s Eve. We sent texts of concern if the national news carried a story about a storm where we lived.

The Reunion

Last fall, Etta called me and asked me if I would come to the 50th High School Class Reunion for her class; to say a few words. She wanted me to tour the old school, now called East Marion, with her and Odell James, Jr., the only other member of the cast who would be there. She said that another cast member, E.J. Youngblood, had died, and that Samuel Whalen was not well enough to attend.

And so, I packed my suitcase and drove 813 miles to Columbia, Mississippi for one reason and one reason only, to tell the Marion Central graduates how blessed they were to have Marion Central as the foundation for their lives, and how proud I have always been to say that I was from Marion Central.

On Saturday morning, the day of the banquet, Etta, Odell and I toured the school. The stage in the gymnasium was exactly as it was over 50 years ago in 1969 when I worked with them as high school sophomores on the school play.

Then, I instinctively turned and looked up to the top of the bleachers in the gym, remembering exactly where I sat with my sixth grade students when the entire community came to the school on the first anniversary of the assassination of Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., to honor Dr. King.

Some moments you never forget where you were.

I spent the rest of the day with Etta, her husband and family at their country home. The garden. The chickens. The flowers. A lifetime of memories in pictures on the walls. The Marion Central yearbook.

That night, I spoke at the banquet and reminisced with students about life at Marion Central and the early days, months and years after integration. The sons of Mr. Otis and Mr. James were there.

The next morning, a group of us went to church at Shorts Chapel Christian Methodist Episcopal Church, to worship together and hear Pastor Rev. Johnny Porter, a member of the 50^th reunion class. She did an amazing job of inspiring us all to be our better selves.

After church, we said our goodbyes and I began my two-day drive back to Raleigh.

Maya Angelou, the world-renown African American writer who taught at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem for more than 30 years, said, “I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.”

I have always felt so proud to be from Marion Central.

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

In Today’s Divided State and Nation, You Have to Start Throwing Punches Earlier and Harder to Win

 January 24, 2023       Vol. XVI, No. 1       10:13 am

“Retire or Get Fired” TV Ads Already Running for 2024 Races

“Retire or Get Fired:” It never ends. Politics. A news story in The Hill last week reported that the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee is already running attack ads against Democratic US Senators from Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, three Republican-friendly states carried by former GOP President Donald Trump in 2020.

The ad campaign, titled, “Retire or Get Fired,” is targeting Montana Democrat Sen. Jon Tester, Ohio Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, and West Virginia Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin. The attack ad issues? An army of 87,000 new IRS agents. Open borders. Higher taxes. More spending. Votes with Biden.

Alarming at first glance. November 2024 is lightyears away. On the other hand, it might be working. US Sen. Joe Manchin indicated in an interview Sunday on Meet the Press that he may run as a Republican in 2024, saying, “Everything is on the table.”

Under the U.S. Constitution, you can’t govern if you don’t win a campaign for public office. And in today’s divided America, where neither political party has a guaranteed political advantage, you have to start throwing punches earlier and harder to win.

Who Really Wields the Power in US Politics?

$1.66 billion spent on US Senate races: Political fights have gotten especially ugly since the advent of unlimited campaign spending by wealthy individuals, corporations, labor unions, and independent groups following the US Supreme Court decision Citizens United in 2010. The 2022 US Senate races saw $1.66 billion spent (Democrats $898 million; GOP $743 million), per OpenSecrets.

All that money spent, $1.66 billion, yet only one seat flipped parties, retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman’s seat in Pennsylvania. Democrat John Fetterman defeated Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz with 51% of the vote. North Carolina’s US Senate race saw Democrat Cheri Beasley and allied groups spend $57.4 million, losing to Republican Ted Budd and allies who spent $83 million to win with only 50.7%.

Who really wields the power in US politics?: But think for a minute who all that money is spent on. It’s not upper class voters. There are not enough upper class voters to win a campaign in any state or congressional district in the United States. Most ad money is spent on middle and working class voters. They are the dominant market share of the most important commodity in politics, individual votes.

Every four years, presidential contenders who dream of being the most influential political leader in the world must humble themselves for the votes of middle and working class Americans, voters who can’t afford to make a political contribution. A Bankrate national survey in 2022 revealed that only six-of-ten Americans had enough in savings to cover a $1,000 unexpected family emergency.

Yet these same voters, who live from paycheck to paycheck, have refused to allow either party to serve more than two terms in the White House since World War II, with one exception, when GOP President GHW Bush followed President Ronald Reagan in 1988, giving the GOP three terms.

In 2020, $6.5 billion was spent on the presidential race alone. Most of that money was spent by candidates who lost the argument to middle and working class voters that they were the better choice. Only $1.6 billion of the $6.5 billion in presidential campaign spending was spent either by the Joe Biden campaign ($1.04 billion) or outside groups on Biden’s behalf ($572 million).

President Donald Trump and his allies, despite wielding the power of the White House, spent $1.091 billion on a failed effort to persuade American voters that he had earned another term.

So, who really wields the power in U.S. politics? In the final analysis, power in America is in the hands of middle and working class voters. They decide who will be president, who will lead the US Senate, and who serves as Speaker of the US House.

Seven Speakers in 25 Years: Just in the last 25 years, there have been seven US House Speakerships: Republicans Newt Gingrich and Dennis Hastert, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, Republicans John Boehner and Paul Ryan, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, and Republican Kevin McCarthy. The U.S. House flipped from Democrat to Republican in 1994, then back to the Democrats in 2006, then back to the Republicans in 2010, then back to the Democrats in 2018, then back to the Republicans in 2022.

After nearly five decades of experience in the political vineyards, the most invaluable conclusion I have drawn is that average American middle and working class voters are absolutely in control of our national, state and local governments. They are the reason our democracy is not in peril!

In America, all leaders are accountable to middle and working class voters. In today’s divided state and nation, they are the reason you have to start throwing punches earlier and harder to win.

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Check John Davis’s availability to speak in 2023 at www.johndavisconsulting.com

NC GOP Gains Supreme Court Majority and NC Senate Supermajority; Likely to Flip US House

 November 9, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 11       10:13 am

Republicans Win 5-2 Majority on NC Supreme Court

NC Supreme Court: North Carolina Republicans won the two state Supreme Court races and the four North Carolina Court of Appeals races, flipping the NC Supreme Court from a 4 – 3 Democratic majority to a 5 – 2 Republican majority. The two new justices are Richard Dietz, who defeated Lucy Inman, and Trey Allen, who defeated Sam Ervin, IV.

Implications: Republicans will now be able to redraw the congressional and legislative maps as they please (governor can’t veto maps), expanding their advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates.

For background on the winners of the two Supreme Court and four Court of Appeals races, see North Carolina Board of Elections Judicial Voter Guide 2022.

GOP Wins Supermajority in NC Senate; One Seat Short in NC House

NC SENATE & HOUSE: Republicans won a 30-seat supermajority in the 50-member NC Senate but fell one seat short in the 120-member NC House, giving Gov. Cooper the power of the veto for his final two years as governor and forcing the GOP to bargain.

DEMOCRATS WIN 35-of-37 WAKE AND MECKLENBURG SEATS: North Carolina’s two largest urban counties continue to be strongholds for Democrats running for the General Assembly, favoring Democrats in 35-of-37 of the combined state Senate and House races from Wake and Mecklenburg counties.

Democrats won 6-of-6 of the NC Senate races in Wake County, and 5-of-5 NC Senate races in Mecklenburg County. (Note: Although NC Senate 37 was won by Republican Vickie Sawyer, only 4-of-33 precincts are in Mecklenburg County; Iredell County 29 precincts.)

Wake County has 13 NC House districts. Democrats won 12-of-13, with Rep. Erin Pare the only GOP winner. Mecklenburg County has 13 NC House districts. Democrats won 12-of-13, with Rep. John Bradford, III the only GOP winner.

Urban Growth Implications: Although at first glance it appears exponential urban growth is the North Carolina GOP’s greatest political threat, surrounding Republican-friendly counties are growing exponentially too, keeping the state a level playing field.

Rumor: It is rumored that several NC House Democrats are considering switching to the GOP before the 2023 session begins. If one switched, Republicans would have a 72-seat supermajority in the NC House, and the ink in Gov. Cooper’s veto pen would dry up.

Meanwhile, Republicans will enjoy a solid 71-49 advantage in the NC House. The GOP caucus will elect the Speaker, and all committee chairs will be Republican.

GOP’s Budd Wins US Senate Race; Democrat Nickel Wins US House 13

US SENATE MAJORITY YET UNDETERMINED: Republican Ted Budd defeated Democrat Cheri Beasley 50.71% to 47.08% in the race for the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring Sen. Richard Burr.

As of this hour, the U.S. Senate majority is yet undetermined, with the majority likely decided on December 6 in a Georgia runoff election between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

As of 10:13 am this morning, Sen. Warnock had 49.4% to Walker’s 48.5%. Georgia election laws require a winning margin of at least 50%.

Democrats flipped Pennsylvania and are likely to hold once-vulnerable Arizona. The GOP flipped Nevada and are likely to hold once-vulnerable Wisconsin.

NC REPUBLICANS WON FAVORABLE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS: In North Carolina’s congressional races, 7-of-14 districts so clearly favor the election of Republicans that there was never any doubt the Republican nominee would win. Republican winners: Representatives Virginia Foxx, Patrick McHenry, Richard Hudson, Dan Bishop, David Rouser and Greg Murphy, along with newcomer Republican Chuck Edwards, who defeated former Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the GOP primary.

NC DEMOCRATS WON FAVORABLE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS: Six of NC’s 14 congressional districts so clearly favor the election of Democrats that there was never any doubt the Democratic nominee would win. Democratic winners: Representatives Kathy Manning, Alma Adams and Deborah Ross, along with newcomers to the U.S. House Valerie Foushee (Rep. David Price’s district), Jeff Jackson (new district 14), and Don Davis (Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s district).

DEMOCRATS WIN NC’s ONLY TOSS UP DISTRICT: U.S. House District 13, a newly reconfigured swing district that includes southern Wake County, all of Johnston County, and portions of Harnett and Wayne Counties, was won by Democrat Wiley Nickel, 51.32% to 48.68% for Republican Bo Hines. Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hines hurt him badly in urban and suburban Wake County precincts. Plus, he simply could not overcome the fact that he was an inexperienced carpetbagger.

Messages Voters Sent With Their Votes on November 8, 2022

On November 8, 2022, there was no red wave sweeping Democrats out of power from sea to shining sea. Just as important, there was no blue wave. Nothing about the election results on Tuesday says that either party has a partisan or ideological mandate.

The economy and crime mattered a lot. So did abortion. In the suburbs, MAGA mattered; Trump hurt more than he helped. But there was no party mandate.

Where is the partisan or ideological mandate in a 50-50 US Senate, or even a Senate where one of the parties has a 51 or 52 seat majority? Where is the partisan or ideological mandate in a U.S. House where one of the parties has a single digit majority out of 435 members?

The NBC News October poll included a question asking American voters what message they would be sending with their votes to those candidates who won on November 8, 2022. Six of the top eight answers were about the importance of political leaders to focus on solving problems on the mind of most voters rather than partisan or ideological agendas.

The six messages sent to yesterday’s winners by voters are:

• Be More Effective/Productive/Do More
• More Bipartisanship/Work for the People
• Save This Country/Turn This Country Around
• Honesty/Integrity/Trust Matters
• Focus on the Problems Within the United States
• Listen to Your Constituents

These are cautionary political messages for both parties. No one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022. No one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022.

The mandate is to focus on solving the most important problems on the mind of voters.

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

To sign up for the John Davis Political Report and check John Davis’s availability to speak this fall, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com

Part 2: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime

October 28, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 10, Part 2       10:13 am

NOTE: This is Part 2 of a report titled, GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime. Part 1 focused on how Democrats lost the moral authority to lead the nation, with implications for the US Senate races. Part 2 covers races for the NC Appellate Judiciary, US House, and the NC General Assembly.

NC Supreme Court Seats Most Politically Consequential Races of 2022

WILL THE COURT FLIP? The two most politically consequential races in North Carolina this fall are for two seats on the North Carolina Supreme Court. If Republicans win one of the two, the court will flip from 4 – 3 Democratic to a 4 – 3 Republican majority.

Why is that so important? Because Republicans will then be able to redraw the congressional and legislative maps as they please, expanding their advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates for the remainder of the decade.

The US Supreme Court is now out of the partisan gerrymandering cases, leaving those issues to the states. Equally important, the governor of North Carolina has no authority to veto remapping legislation. Remove the Democratic state Supreme Court as an obstacle to Republican gerrymandering, and you will see new maps that boost GOP power.

WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN? If Democratic early voting turnout continues to trend below 2018 and 2020 levels, and if Republican early voting turnout continues to trend above 2018 and 2020, that plus a shift in independent voters towards GOP candidates signals it’s going to be a good night on November 8, 2022 for Republicans in the two state Supreme Court races and the four North Carolina Court of Appeals races.

EARLY VOTING TURNOUT OCT 28: 8th-day early voting turnout trends compared to same day 2018 and 2020, compliments of Mike Rusher, The Results Company:

• Democrats: down7% compared to 2018 early voting; 2.3% under 2020 turnout.
• Republicans: up8% over 2018; up 2.0% over 2020.
• Black voters: 18.5% of early voters, down from 20.3% in 2018 and 21.0% in 2020.
• Women: 52% of total, down5% below 2018 and 0.3% below 2020 (trending upward)
• Men: down3% from 2018 early voting share; up 3.4% over 2020 share.
• Unaffiliated voters are up over 2018 and 2020 (Note: independent voters breaking Republican nationally and in NC public opinion polls).
• The more Democrat-friendly under-45 age voters are lagging (31-44 age group is 9.1% of turnout; 18-30 age group only 5.5%). Over-45 year old voters are 85.4% of total.
• Over half (50.6%) of early voters thus far are the more GOP-friendly 65+ age group.

Democratic Justice Sam Ervin, IV may buck the Republican-friendly trends. He has unique positive statewide name identity because of his grandfather, Senator Sam Ervin. On the other hand, voters are so hyper-partisan right now that almost all Republicans/Lean Republican voters are more likely to vote a straight ticket in the six Appellate Judiciary races.

For background and contact for the two Supreme Court and four Court of Appeals races See the North Carolina Board of Elections Judicial Voter Guide 2022.

US House: Final 2022 Big Picture Forecast

US HOUSE MAJORITY: On November 8, 2022, Republicans will retake the majority in the U.S. House, thereby ending 82-year-old Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s reign as the most powerful Democrat in the United States Congress and most powerful woman in America.

The average net loss of the party in the White House in a midterm year is 26 House seats, suggesting the GOP will win a majority in the range of 239 seats (218 needed for majority).

NC CONGRESSIONAL RACES WHERE REPUBLICANS ARE FAVORED: In North Carolina’s congressional races, 7-of-14 districts so clearly favor the election of Republicans that there is no doubt the Republican nominee will win. Those likely Republican winners: Representatives Virginia Foxx, Patrick McHenry, Richard Hudson, Dan Bishop, David Rouser and Greg Murphy, along with newcomer Republican Chuck Edwards, who defeated former Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the GOP primary.

NC CONGRESSIONAL RACES WHERE DEMOCRATS ARE FAVORED: Six of NC’s 14 congressional districts so clearly favor the election of Democrats that there is no doubt the Democratic nominee will win. Those likely Democratic winners: Representatives Kathy Manning, Alma Adams and Deborah Ross, along with likely newcomers to the U.S. House Valerie Foushee (Rep. David Price’s district), Jeff Jackson (new district 14), and Don Davis (Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s district).

NC’s ONLY TOSS UP DISTRICT IS U.S. HOUSE 13: U.S. House District 13, a newly reconfigured swing district that includes southern Wake County, all of Johnston County, and portions of Harnett and Wayne Counties, is likely to be won by Republican newcomer Bo Hines. Hines’s advantages include President Biden’s low job approval on the most important problems facing the country, especially the cost of living and crime.

Note: North Carolina’s court-imposed maps are for one election only. New maps next cycle.

NC General Assembly: Supermajorities Yes or No?

The growing national Republican-friendly momentum in the final days of the 2022 midterm elections is why GOP candidates are more likely than Democrats to win the swing districts in races for the North Carolina Senate and House of Representatives.

NC SENATE: Republicans have a 28-seat majority in the 50-member Senate. They need to win two swing seats to reach the supermajority threshold of 30 seats. The GOP holds all seats in districts carried by former President Trump. Flipping two Democrat-held seats is not a tall order for seasoned NC Senate political pros. Supermajority likely.

NC HOUSE: Republicans have a 69-seat majority in the 120-member House, three short of a 72-seat supermajority. A GOP supermajority has been improbable all year. Now, a rising red wave creates a real opportunity for a Republican supermajority in the NC House.

Messages Voters Will Be Sending With Their Votes This Year

The NBC News October poll includes a question asking American voters what message they will be sending with their votes to those candidates who win. Six of the top eight answers are about the importance of political leaders to focus on solving problems on the mind of most voters rather than partisan or ideological agendas. The six messages are:

• Be More Effective/Productive/Do More
• More Bipartisanship/Work for the People
• Save This Country/Turn This Country Around
• Honesty/Integrity/Trust Matters
• Focus on the Problems Within the United States
• Listen to Your Constituents

These are cautionary political messages for both parties. Contrary to what many leaders say, no one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022.

The mandate is to focus on solving the most important problems on the mind of voters.

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

To sign up for the John Davis Political Report and check John Davis’s availability to speak this fall, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com

Part 1: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime

October 27, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 10       8:13 am

NOTE: This is Part 1 of two reports under the title, GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime. Part 1 focuses on how Democrats lost the moral authority to lead the nation, with implications for the US Senate majority and North Carolina’s US Senate race. Part 2 will cover the US House, the North Carolina General Assembly, and the North Carolina Appellate Judiciary races.

#1 Political Mistake Made by Democrats

DEMOCRATS’ #1 MISTAKE: The number one reason Democrats are now on track to lose majorities in both the US Senate and House, taking down many North Carolina Democrats with them, is that they have governed as if most voters are “very liberal,” when in fact, only 14% of Americans consider themselves “very liberal” (total “liberal” is  28%), per the new NBC News October poll, released Sunday.

Democrats will pay dearly on November 8 because they allowed their agenda to be dictated by the radical “woke” liberal extremists who say voters are racists if they raise concerns about rising violent crime rates and declining education achievement scores.

Wednesday morning on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Jim Messina, former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, acknowledged the problem with Democratic extremists when he said, “We’ve got to stop listening to a very small minority of the party.”

DEMOCRATS WERE WELL WARNED: Pollsters have reported all year that voters were more concerned about the cost of living, immigration, and rising violent crime rates than about the January 6 Committee, abortion, or climate change. All year.

In my report on January 28, 2022, North Carolina Democrats Will Suffer Politically If Biden and DC Democrats Continue to Claim Liberal Mandate, I wrote, “Many North Carolina Democrats will lose their campaigns in 2022 if President Biden and other national party leaders continue to disappoint their base and alienate independent voters by governing as if they were given a liberal mandate by voters in 2020.”

The #1 problem facing the nation then and now? Inflation. The cost of living.

The new NBC News poll, jointly conducted by Democratic and Republican firms, Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, respectively, reveals that 71% of voters surveyed still say the country is “off on the wrong track,” the same number found in the March NBC News poll, with only 20% saying the country is “headed in the right direction.”

Democrats drove the country off on the wrong track by governing as if they had a partisan or ideological mandate to govern as they pleased without regard for the most important concerns of American voters.

There never was a Democratic mandate in America. Only 4-in-10 Americans think of themselves as Democrats/Lean Democratic. And, there certainly never was a “very liberal” mandate, as only 14% of Americans claim the “very liberal” label.

The GOP is about to gain power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats pay dearly for putting the priorities of a small minority of “woke” Democrats ahead of those of most voters.

Final 2022 Big Picture Forecast: US Senate

US SENATE MAJORITY: On November 8, 2022, Republicans will retake the majority in the U.S. Senate, thereby elevating 80-year-old GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell back to the enviable position as the most powerful Member of Congress.

The average midterm election year loss of the party in the White House is four U.S. Senate seats, giving the GOP a potential majority of 54 to 46 Democrats (includes independents who caucus with Democrats, Sen. Angus King, ME, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, VT).

REPUBLICANS LIKELY TO HOLD WI, PA, OH: Republicans are now on track to hold seats once thought vulnerable, including Wisconsin (Sen. Ron Johnson), Pennsylvania, where GOP newcomer Dr. Mehmet Oz is now, after Tuesday night’s debate, likely to defeat Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who was weakened by a stroke in May, and Ohio, where polls show Republican J.D. Vance now leading with 47.3% in the Real Clear Politics average to 45.3% for Democrat Tim Ryan.

NORTH CAROLINA: Republican Ted Budd, who leads Democrat Cheri Beasley by 48.5% to 44% in the RCP average, is now likely to win North Carolina’s US Senate race.

The latest North Carolina Marist poll, conducted from October 17-20, shows inflation as the #1 “top of mind” issue facing voters and President Biden’s job approval at only 38% overall among registered voters. Even worse for Beasley, only 29% of independent voters approve of Biden’s job performance, contributing to Budd’s growing advantage in the race.

THREE GOP US SENATE PICKUPS: Three US Senate Democratic incumbents are so clearly threatened by the growing national Republican momentum that they are now more likely to lose. The three most at-risk Democrats are Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.

GEORGIA: Not enough has been said about the fact that Georgia Republican US Senate nominee Herschel Walker will benefit greatly from the fact that Georgia Republicans know that they cost the GOP the U.S. Senate majority by not turning out in the two U.S. Senate runoff elections in January 2021. They will not make that mistake again.

Biden carried Georgia by only 0.3% in the 2020 presidential election. Look for lower turnout among likely Democratic voters for three reasons: one, cost-of-living is the number one issue on the minds of voters, two, Atlanta is number two on the list of highest inflation rates among metropolitan areas at 11.7%, and three, President Biden’s job approval on inflation is 33.8%, per the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average.

Walker also benefits from a well-executed campaign by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who leads Democratic challenger Stacy Abrams 51% to 44.3%, per the RCP average.

ARIZONA: Biden also carried Arizona by a slim 0.3% in the 2020 presidential election. Biden’s job approval on inflation is 33.8%, per the RCP average, at a time when Phoenix is number one  on the list of highest inflation rates among metropolitan areas at 13%.

Arizona Republican Blake Masters is also likely to defeat incumbent US Sen. Mark Kelly because of the added factor of the crisis at the border with Mexico. Only 35.6% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of immigration, with 60.2% disapproving.

NEVADA: Nevada GOP nominee Adam Laxalt is now leading in the polls with 46.3% to 46% for Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, per Real Clear Politics. An incumbent running behind a challenger bodes ill for Cortez Masto, especially with Republicans gaining momentum nationwide as voters lose confidence in the ability of Biden and Democrats to manage the triple threats of inflation, immigration and crime.

Democrats are likely to lose the US Senate and House because they governed as if they had a partisan or ideological mandate. No one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022.

The mandate is to focus on solving the most important problems on the mind of voters.

END –

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

To sign up for the John Davis Political Report and check John Davis’s availability to speak this fall, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com

Forecasting Likely 2022 State and Federal Election Results by the Top 10 Wrong Track Reasons

Top Ten Reasons Voters Say Nation is On the Wrong Track

September 23, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 9 8:13 am

Voters say US on Wrong Track: The September 2022 NBC News national political poll shows that almost 7-of-10 registered voters (68%) think things in the nation are off on the wrong track.

Note: I trust the NBC News poll more than most because they always have a Democratic firm (Hart Research Associates) and a Republican firm (Public Opinion Strategies) collaborate on a balanced selection of participants, an unbiased questionnaire, and a fair interpretation of the results.

Top 10 Wrong Track Reasons: The top 10 reasons, in their own words, why voters think the nation is on the wrong track are, #1. Economy/Inflation, #2. Divided Nation/Political Division, #3. Border Control/Immigration, #4. Joe Biden, #5. Gas Prices, #6. Crime/Violence/Killings, #7. Government Overreach/Corruption, #8. Cost of Living, #9. Food Prices, #10. Women’s Reproductive Rights.

Other than the two issues, Divided Nation/Political Division and Women’s Reproductive Rights, eight of the ten reasons why voters say the nation is on the wrong track are advantageous to Republicans.

Cost-of-living vs. Abortion: Question 16 in the September 2022 NBC News poll just might be the most telling. The question asked voters if “cost-of-living” or “abortion” was more important in deciding their vote for Congress. Cost-of-living was more important to 59%; abortion more important to 37%.

So why is that question so significant? Because most voters disapprove (61%) of the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, only 37% approve. Yet, cost-of-living still matters more (59%) than abortion (37%) in choosing who to vote for in a congressional race.

Bottom line, most Americans are fearful of growing inflation. The poll shows that 63% said their family income was “falling behind” the cost-of-living; only 30% said their income was “about even.”

Biden Job Approval a Drag on Democrats: Although President Biden’s overall job approval in the NBC News poll is 45%, it plummets on the issues that matter most. Only 30% approve of his handling of cost-of-living; only 40% approve of his handling of the economy in general.

Even worse, only 23% think Biden’s policies have improved economic conditions, with 47% saying Biden’s policies have hurt economic conditions. By comparison, 41% of voters said former Pres. Trump’s policies helped the economy, with only 26% saying Trump’s policies hurt the economy.

Trump Support Declining Among Republicans: Unfortunately for Trump, the same poll showing voters favoring his economic policies over Biden’s policies also shows that 56% of voters think the investigations into “alleged wrongdoing” by Trump should continue; 41% said they should not.

Most significantly, when only Republicans were asked if they were more a supporter of Donald Trump or the Republican Party, only 33% said “Supporter of Donald Trump,” with a strong GOP majority of 58% saying “Supporter of the Republican Party.”

Many Republicans are tiring of the wake of chaos that follows Trump wherever he goes. Privately, many are probably hoping that enough clear evidence of Trump’s wrongdoings will surface from the ongoing civil and criminal investigations to keep him from running in the 2024 presidential race.

There are plenty of rising stars in the Republican Party who support Trump’s views on public policy but are not as likely to leave a path of destruction in their dealings with others, including other Republicans.

MAGA Turnout: Meanwhile, the MAGA crowd is furious over the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago and are likely to turn out in droves this fall. Politically, Democrats are making a big mistake thinking they can get away with indicting Republicans while running interference for their criminals.

Forecast: When voters were asked if they favored one party over the other, the answer was 40% Democrats/Leaning Democrat and 40% Republican/Leaning Republican. The same 50-50 split appeared again when voters were asked if they would prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans or Democrats. Answer? 46% preferred Republican control, 46% Democratic control.

However, per the new Cook Political Report ratings of congressional races released Wednesday, Republicans have 212 seats of the 218 needed for the majority that favor the GOP candidate. Democrats have a less favorable 192 friendly districts. That means Republicans need to win only six of the 31 remaining tossup races in order to wrest control of the U.S. House from Speaker Pelosi and company.

If economic concerns of voters like cost-of-living continue as most important when deciding how to vote, and if Biden’s job approval on economic issues remains low, and if 7-of-10 Americans continue to say the country is on the wrong track, then Republicans will win most of the toss up races, giving them majorities in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, as well as solid majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.

END –

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

To sign up for the John Davis Political Report and check John Davis’s availability to speak this fall, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com