http://www.johndavisconsulting.com Taking the uncertainty out of North Carolina politics. Sat, 04 Feb 2012 22:08:24 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 John Davis is a political analyst, writer and consultant who has followed North Carolina politics for 25 years. He is one of the state’s leading authorities on evaluating the strengths of candidates and predicting the outcome of political races. John Davis clean John Davis johnDavis@johndavisconsulting.com johnDavis@johndavisconsulting.com (John Davis) John Davis Political Report NC Politics, NC House, NC Senate, Political Consulting, John Davis, NC Government, North Carolina, Raleigh http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/plugins/powerpress/rss_default.jpg http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/category/the-issues/campaign-finance/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2011/04/06/the-1-billion-question-can-obama-carry-nc-in-2012-the-images-in-the-campaign-kickoff-video-disclose-strategy/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2011/04/06/the-1-billion-question-can-obama-carry-nc-in-2012-the-images-in-the-campaign-kickoff-video-disclose-strategy/#comments Wed, 06 Apr 2011 19:11:26 +0000 johndavis http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2011/04/06/the-1-billion-question-can-obama-carry-nc-in-2012-the-images-in-the-campaign-kickoff-video-disclose-strategy/ [More...]]]> http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2011/04/06/the-1-billion-question-can-obama-carry-nc-in-2012-the-images-in-the-campaign-kickoff-video-disclose-strategy/feed/ 0 http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/12/08/the-fall-of-the-basnightrand-empire-and-the-rise-of-a-new-generation-of-united-savvy-republican-leaders-who-can-raise-money/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/12/08/the-fall-of-the-basnightrand-empire-and-the-rise-of-a-new-generation-of-united-savvy-republican-leaders-who-can-raise-money/#comments Wed, 08 Dec 2010 20:24:46 +0000 johndavis http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/12/08/the-fall-of-the-basnightrand-empire-and-the-rise-of-a-new-generation-of-united-savvy-republican-leaders-who-can-raise-money/ [More...]]]> http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/12/08/the-fall-of-the-basnightrand-empire-and-the-rise-of-a-new-generation-of-united-savvy-republican-leaders-who-can-raise-money/feed/ 0 http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/03/investors-political-daily-wednesday-nov-3-2010-republicans-win-historic-majorities-in-nc-senate-and-house/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/03/investors-political-daily-wednesday-nov-3-2010-republicans-win-historic-majorities-in-nc-senate-and-house/#comments Wed, 03 Nov 2010 14:28:43 +0000 johndavis http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/03/investors-political-daily-wednesday-nov-3-2010-republicans-win-historic-majorities-in-nc-senate-and-house/ [More...]]]> http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/03/investors-political-daily-wednesday-nov-3-2010-republicans-win-historic-majorities-in-nc-senate-and-house/feed/ 0 http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/03/late-breaking-trends-wednesday-nov-3-2010-republicans-win-historic-majorities-in-nc-senate-and-house/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/03/late-breaking-trends-wednesday-nov-3-2010-republicans-win-historic-majorities-in-nc-senate-and-house/#comments Wed, 03 Nov 2010 13:38:55 +0000 johndavis http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/03/late-breaking-trends-wednesday-nov-3-2010-republicans-win-historic-majorities-in-nc-senate-and-house/ [More...]]]> http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/03/late-breaking-trends-wednesday-nov-3-2010-republicans-win-historic-majorities-in-nc-senate-and-house/feed/ 0 http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/02/late-breaking-trends-tuesday-nov-2-2010-all-of-the-kings-horses-and-all-of-the-kings-men/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/02/late-breaking-trends-tuesday-nov-2-2010-all-of-the-kings-horses-and-all-of-the-kings-men/#comments Tue, 02 Nov 2010 18:30:38 +0000 johndavis http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/02/late-breaking-trends-tuesday-nov-2-2010-all-of-the-kings-horses-and-all-of-the-kings-men/ [More...]]]> http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/02/late-breaking-trends-tuesday-nov-2-2010-all-of-the-kings-horses-and-all-of-the-kings-men/feed/ 0 2010 elections,Late Breaking Trends,Liberal,Martin Nesbitt,NC Democrats,NC Republicans,North Carolina elections,President Obama,SEIU,Service Employees International Union,Underemployment,Unemployment Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina's 2010 General Election Races - Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans - Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary - (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/LBTSenate-box1.jpg) (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/LBTHouse-box1.jpg) Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina's 2010 General Election Races (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Check-mark-Democrat-e1281386007855.jpg)Advantage Democrats (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Check-mark-Republican-e1281386074285.jpg) Advantage Republicans Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary "The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898.  After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, "All of the king's horses and all of the king's men .…" John Davis Political Report, Nov. 2, 2010 Late Breaking Trends North Carolina's Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast All of the Kings Horses and All of the Kings Men The loss of confidence in President Obama and the Democratic Party started in 2009 Post: Tuesday, November 2, 2010 Take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends partisan advantage tracking charts (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/late-breaking-trends-nc-house/) and you will see that the GOP has a double-digit political momentum advantage in today’s elections in NC … and that they have sustained that advantage since the chart was created on August 16, 2010. Here are 4 of the 12 variables from today’s Late Breaking Trends (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/late-breaking-trends-nc-house/) charts: * Only 13% of Americans rate the economy as “Excellent/Good”  (74% said so in 2001) * 64% of Americans say the country is on the "wrong track;" 31% say "right track" * 74% of Americans "disapprove" of the job the U.S. Congress is doing * 56% of NC voters "disapprove" of the job Pres. Obama is doing; 41% "approve" Adding to the overall malaise among North Carolina Democrats today is low favorability rating or Governor Bev Perdue.  According to today's Pollster.com, only 22.7% of North Carolinians have a favorable impression of Purdue. Here are the latest headlining studies that make the case for a big GOP win today: Oct. 28 – Republican Party Equals the Democratic Party’s 3rd Quarter Fundraising in NC: According to a study of 3rd quarter campaign finance reports by the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, “This year, Republicans have raised $3.3 million, and the Democrats took in $3.7 million in the 3rd quarter: much closer to a 1-to-1 match.  By way of comparison, in the 3rd quarter of 2008, “the Republican Party raised $1.5 million and the Democratic Party raised almost $5.9 million: a 4-to-1 Democratic advantage.”  If in fact Republicans have taken away the Democrats’ last line of defense, money, then the GOP will win a majority in both the NC Senate and NC House. Oct. 31 - Republican 15-Point Advantage on Generic Ballot Unprecedented (http://www.gallup.com/poll/144125/Republicans-Appear-Poised-Win-Big-Tuesday.aspx) in Gallup History: On October 31, 2010, USA Today/Gallup released the results of a national poll conducted Oct. 28-31 showing a 15-point gap in likely voters favoring Republicans in U.S. Congressional races.  The report concluded, “This year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations.” Nov. 1 - GOP Early Voting Net 11 Points Over 2008 Turnout: A net 11% swing to the favor of Republicans in early voting this fall when compared to the fall of 2008 bodes well for the GOP in North Carolina today.  In 2008, North Carolina Democrats made up 51% of those who voted early during the General Election.  This fall, John Davis clean http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/01/late-breaking-trends-monday-nov-1-2010-gop-early-voting-net-11-points-over-2008-turnout/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/01/late-breaking-trends-monday-nov-1-2010-gop-early-voting-net-11-points-over-2008-turnout/#comments Mon, 01 Nov 2010 19:21:06 +0000 johndavis http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/01/late-breaking-trends-monday-nov-1-2010-gop-early-voting-net-11-points-over-2008-turnout/ [More...]]]> http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/11/01/late-breaking-trends-monday-nov-1-2010-gop-early-voting-net-11-points-over-2008-turnout/feed/ 0 http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/29/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-oct-29-update-final-nc-house-forecast-gop-majority-likely-64/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/29/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-oct-29-update-final-nc-house-forecast-gop-majority-likely-64/#comments Fri, 29 Oct 2010 20:20:14 +0000 johndavis http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/29/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-oct-29-update-final-nc-house-forecast-gop-majority-likely-64/ [More...]]]> http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/29/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-oct-29-update-final-nc-house-forecast-gop-majority-likely-64/feed/ 0 2010 elections,Investor's Political Daily,Late Breaking Trends,Liberal,Martin Nesbitt,NC Democrats,NC Republicans,North Carolina elections,President Obama,SEIU,Service Employees International Union,Underemployment Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary "Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 - (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/IPDSenate.jpg) (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/IPDHouse.jpg) Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for... John Davis clean http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/28/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-final-nc-senate-forecast-gop-majority-likely-29/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/28/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-final-nc-senate-forecast-gop-majority-likely-29/#comments Thu, 28 Oct 2010 18:57:24 +0000 johndavis http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/28/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-final-nc-senate-forecast-gop-majority-likely-29/ [More...]]]> http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/28/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-final-nc-senate-forecast-gop-majority-likely-29/feed/ 0 2010 elections,Investor's Political Daily,Late Breaking Trends,Liberal,Martin Nesbitt,NC Democrats,NC Republicans,North Carolina elections,President Obama,SEIU,Service Employees International Union,Underemployment Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary "Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/IPDSenate.jpg) (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/IPDHouse.jpg) Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary "Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE:  See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily report graphics above. Investors Political Daily North Carolina's Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast Final NC Senate Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 29 Post:  October 29, 2010 No changes since last week's Investors Political Daily NC Senate report, which showed the NC Senate Republican Caucus with a likely majority of 29 senators.  All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/IPD-NCSenate-Scoreboard.pdf). Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 11 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 7 “Favored” GOP candidates.  That brings their likely total to 29 wins next Tuesday, with a possibility of 30 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats. The majority party needs only 26 seats in the 50-member Senate to rule. NOTE:  All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/IPD-NCSenate-Scoreboard.pdf). Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have only 1 candidate with NO OPPOSITION, 16 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 1 “Favored” Democratic candidates.  That brings their likely total to 18 wins next Tuesday, 20 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans. GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today's Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy an 18-point partisan momentum advantage ... since August 16. The Big Differences between 2008 and 2010: The big differences in Senate races this year are money, momentum and leadership: * The Senate Democratic Caucus’ national model political war machine fall apart with a half-dozen key retirements, especially the loss of the old war general Tony Rand. * The Senate Republican Caucus has grown exponentially in strength and effectiveness in all areas of campaign fundamentals this cycle, from recruiting and fundraising to strategic planning and united leadership. * Republicans have the political momentum advantage. (http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/civitas-poll-16-point-flip-toward-republicans-state-legislative-generic-ballot-) * Republicans have neutralized the one advantage that Democrats have always managed to dominate and parlay into winning the majority: money. (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/10/28/1791570/nc-gop-narrows-fundraising-gap.html) * Democratic scandals, involving Senators and caucus alums including Tony Rand, R.C. Soles and Gov. Beverly Perdue, have been a major distraction. * Governor Perdue is a drag on all Democratic candidates with her dismal 21% “Favorable” rating (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/29/fav-perdue_n_725977.html). * The big money corporate folks are hedging their bets and helping Republicans big time. Biggest Political Story of the General Election:  The biggest political story of the entire general election was written yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer.  The headline read:  N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats John Davis clean http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/28/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-final-nc-house-forecast-gop-majority-likely-64/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/28/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-final-nc-house-forecast-gop-majority-likely-64/#comments Thu, 28 Oct 2010 18:29:53 +0000 johndavis http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/28/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-final-nc-house-forecast-gop-majority-likely-64/ [More...]]]> http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/28/investors-political-daily-thursday-oct-28-2010-final-nc-house-forecast-gop-majority-likely-64/feed/ 0 http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/20/late-breaking-trends-thursday-oct-21-2010-gops-focus-on-economy-forges-powerful-new-coalition-with-far-reaching-potential/ http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/20/late-breaking-trends-thursday-oct-21-2010-gops-focus-on-economy-forges-powerful-new-coalition-with-far-reaching-potential/#comments Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:00:59 +0000 johndavis http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/20/late-breaking-trends-thursday-oct-21-2010-gops-focus-on-economy-forges-powerful-new-coalition-with-far-reaching-potential/ [More...]]]> http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/2010/10/20/late-breaking-trends-thursday-oct-21-2010-gops-focus-on-economy-forges-powerful-new-coalition-with-far-reaching-potential/feed/ 0 2010 elections,Late Breaking Trends,Liberal,Martin Nesbitt,NC Democrats,NC Republicans,North Carolina elections,President Obama,SEIU,Service Employees International Union,Underemployment,Unemployment Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary - Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina's 2010 General Election Races - Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/LBTSenate-box1.jpg) (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/LBTHouse-box1.jpg) Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina's 2010 General Election Races (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Check-mark-Democrat-e1281386007855.jpg)Advantage Democrats (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Check-mark-Republican-e1281386074285.jpg) Advantage Republicans "Tea Party detractors have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down.  Those detractors have forgotten that world history is replete with local insurrections that escalated into full-scale rebellions, rebellions that forced concessions by kings and nobles or the complete overthrow of the high and the mighty.”       John Davis Political Report, April 13, 2010, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard (../wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Archbishop-Tutu-Growing-Corn-Final-4-9-2010.pdf) GOP's Focus on Economy Forges Powerful New Coalition with Far Reaching Potential Post:  Thursday, October 21, 2010, by John Davis MOMENTUM IN GOP's FAVOR SOLID IN NC FOR MONTHS:  When I created the Late Breaking Trends tracking charts in mid-August, I expected that the double-digit advantage favoring North Carolina Republicans would tighten up as Election Day neared.  It always does.  It has not. Take a look at the graphs below from today's Late Breaking Trends charts and you will see that not only has the partisan momentum advantage favored the GOP for many months, the advantage has not dropped below 18% since early September for NC Senate races, or below 12% for NC House races. Here are two new numbers from Gallup this week that are indicative of the overall dissatisfaction with the policies of the nation's political leadership ... numbers that are driving the GOP-friendly trend: Obama's Ratings at New Low (http://www.gallup.com/poll/143921/Obama-Approval-Rating-New-Low-Recent-Quarter.aspx): Today, Gallup reports that, "President Barack Obama's job approval average of 44.7% marks a new quarterly low."  Gallup also reports that Obama's "favorable rating has also reached a new low as president, at 47%," with a majority saying he does not deserve re-election. Satisfaction with Direction of U.S. Lowest in 30 Years (http://www.gallup.com/poll/143840/Satisfaction-Pace-Lowest-Midterm-Election-Year.aspx):  On Monday of this week, Gallup reported that only 21% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., and that "If that figure does not improve considerably in the next two weeks, it would be the lowest level of U.S. satisfaction Gallup has measured at the time of a midterm election in more than 30 years...." The GOP is favored by 11 out of 12 economic and political indicators tracked daily for two months in the Late Breaking Trends feature chart developed by the John Davis Political Report. For emphasis: Not once in two months have NC Senate Democrats had an advantage on any of the 12 economic and political variables used to create the Late Breaking Trends trend line.  The same is true for the NC House Democrats with one exception: the mid-year campaign finance reports filed with the State Board of Elections showed NC House Democrats with a 2-to-1 Cash on Hand advantage.  The new reports will be out next week.  Look for a major tightening of the campaign funding gap, as Republicans are likely to report their best fundraising election cycle ever. Today's NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point advantage. (http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/LBT-Senate-10-21.jpg) John Davis clean