John Davis Consulting

Political Feats, Economic Optimism and Offsetting Scandals Mean Likely High Midterm Marks for Trump

January 25, 2018        Vol. XI, No. 2        11:13 pm

Trump’s #1 POLITICAL Feat is Discrediting Detractors with Tweets

The first midterm exam on President Trump will be held on November 6. His job evaluation will greatly influence voter turnout and the degree of partisan advantage in Washington, DC and Raleigh.

As to likely outcome, Trump’s incomparable skill at defining himself a winner and his detractors as losers combines well with economic optimism and offsetting scandals to suggest high marks this fall.

This conclusion runs counter to history. In midterm elections, the party of the president almost always loses seats in congress. Usually, because the president’s base voters stay home in protest.

Democrats took back the Congress after President Bush’s 2006 midterm elections because Republicans stayed home in protest over how fellow Republicans were spending money.

Republicans took back the US House and won the North Carolina House and Senate majorities after President Obama’s 2010 midterm elections because Democrats stayed home in protest over Democrats putting healthcare reform ahead of jobs and the economy during the recession.

However, the unique political feats noted below will likely spur a solid turnout of Trump’s base.

First and foremost, President Trump’s #1 most important political feat during his first year in office is using his Twitter account to discredit his detractors, particularly liberal news journalists.

• President Trump has 46.9 million followers of his Donald J. Trump Twitter account
• President Trump sent over 2,500 tweets during his first year in office

Using daily Tweets and friendly cable news sources like Fox News, President Trump has completely disrupted the “Golden Age” of White House news coverage, historically dominated by a small number of liberal-leaning TV networks and big city daily newspapers.

In recognizing President Trump as #1 Media Power Player of the year in 2017, Broadcasting & Cable magazine cautioned readers against assuming that Trump “governs solely by whim,” concluding that he is “the most compelling change agent this business has seen.”

Nothing sends Trump voters into a frenzy of roaring approval more than his calling out the “Fake News” media. That’s why his #1 most important POLITICAL feat likely to drive up turnout of the GOP base this fall is using Twitter to define himself a winner and his detractors as losers.

In a close second, reversing President Barack Obama’s executive orders.

Trump’s #2 POLITICAL Feat is Reversing Obama’s Executive Orders

President Trump’s #2 most important political feat is reversing President Obama’s executive orders. Trump signed 30 executive orders in his first 100 days. An above-average 58 in his first year.

Think Keystone XL pipeline, the Dakota Access pipeline, and allowing mining and drilling on public lands. Trump’s EPA regulatory rollbacks are the largest in the agency’s 47-year history.

President Trump boasts eliminating 22 regulations for every one new regulation. He overturned the Affordable Care Act’s contraception coverage mandates by signing a Religious Liberty order.

All federal government policies, from immigration laws and infrastructure projects, to education, the regulatory environment and our relationships with foreign countries, are being reoriented from liberal to conservative ideas for progress by President Trump’s executive orders.

Executive orders have given Trump bragging rights to the lowest number of illegal border crossings in 17 years, and a 42% increase in arrests of illegal immigrants in the US.

Likely coming soon is a bipartisan immigration bill that will include spending on “The Wall” and resolving the DACA issue (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals). Other immigration issues likely to get the conservative stamp of approval this year are the visa lottery and chain migration.

President Trump has shifted the nation’s military strategy to the “Peace through strength” policy advocated by conservatives for centuries. Trump unleashed the nation’s military might against ISIS, taking back over 90% of their territory. He has backed down rogue nations like North Korea with the caution to never test his willingness to protect the homeland by any means.

Other than discrediting the “Fake News” media, nothing is making the Trump base voter happier that seeing him replace President Obama’s liberal executive orders with conservative orders.

Trump’s #3 POLITICAL Feat is Optimism

Finally, there is reason for optimism for peace and prosperity here at home and around the world.

Two recent events signal the potential for diffusing the threat of North Korean nuclear missiles aimed at the United States and its allies like South Korea.

First, on New Year’s Day, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced his interest in reunification talks with South Korea. Second, North and South Korean athletes have announced that they are marching together under one flag during the opening ceremonies at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, to be held February 9-25, 2018.

Perhaps the Trump Administration’s economic sanctions on North Korea are working as intended. Perhaps it is China’s calming hand keeping Kim Jong Un from destroying trading relationships with wealthy markets like the US. Whatever the reason, President Trump will get much of the credit if the threat of nuclear missiles is defused. And, optimism will grow.

President Trump has created a surge in US economic activity by embracing all things conducive to private-sector growth. From ending regulatory overreach to major tax reform, Trump’s economic agenda has created what the New York Times calls, “a wave of optimism” that will spark investment in 2018 in new projects throughout business and industry.

During President Trump’s first year, we have already seen the Dow exceed 26,000 for the first time, and US unemployment fall to 4.1%, a 17-year low. We have seen the President take the lead in the passage of a major tax reform bill that cut corporate rates from 35% to 21%.

Thanks to tax reform, millions of employees are receiving bonuses and raises. Plus, much of $2.8 trillion parked abroad by S&P 500 companies due high tax rates, will be repatriated and invested here in the United States. New jobs with decent benefits. Jobs that pay well.

Apple announced that they are repatriating $252 billion ($55 billion in 2018), planning 20,000 new US jobs, and investing $10 billion in their data centers in 7 states, including North Carolina.

Look for a bipartisan infrastructure bill this year, adding to investments in job opportunities, along with new foreign trade deals, all of which will likely drive up optimism for global peace and prosperity.

With optimism for peace and prosperity comes rising job approval numbers for President Trump.

Of course, all these feats and optimism for peace and prosperity may be dashed by Special Counsel Robert Mueller in his investigation of whether Trump campaign officials colluded with Russians to influence 2016 elections. On the other hand, Obama Justice Department officials are under suspicion for possible collusion with the Hillary Clinton campaign to get FISA warrants authorized so they could snoop on the Trump camp. Offsetting scandals.

Last week, Republican US Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley referred the author of the Trump-Russia dossier to the Justice Department to investigate for possible criminal charges because of “potentially false statements about the distribution of claims from the dossier.”

And, on the criminal scandal front, we also discovered last week that the FBI has been discreetly investigating the Clinton Foundation for months to see if any pay-to-play deals were made on behalf of foundation donors by the State Department while Hillary Clinton served as Secretary of State.

What we are seeing today in Washington, DC is the politics of mutually assured destruction. Both sides battling with offsetting scandals. Indictments are just as likely for associates of the Clintons or officials with the Obama Administration as for anyone associated with President Trump.

The first midterm exam on President Trump will be held in November. Trump’s incomparable skill at defining himself a winner and his detractors as losers combines well with economic optimism and offsetting scandals to suggest high marks and a favorable result for Trump and the GOP this fall.

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