Trump Won the “Most Watched” Convention Address Battle, but Clinton Won the “More Likely to Vote For” War

by johndavis, August 1, 2016

Trump Won the “Most Watched” Convention Address Battle, but Clinton Won the “More Likely to Vote For” War Donald Trump’s bragging rights from having a larger TV audience for his acceptance speech than Hillary Clinton had for hers was short lived. Now, polling numbers evaluating voter opinion of the Republican and Democratic national conventions are
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Trump Won the “Most Watched” Convention Address Battle, but Clinton Won the “More Likely to Vote For” War

Donald Trump’s bragging rights from having a larger TV audience for his acceptance speech than Hillary Clinton had for hers was short lived. Now, polling numbers evaluating voter opinion of the Republican and Democratic national conventions are beginning to pour in, with early indicators pointing to relatively good news for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats and mixed reviews for Donald Trump and the Republicans.

The first poll with breaking news of public opinion of the back-to-back party conventions and their nominees was North Carolina’s own Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democrat-leaning firm highly respected on the national stage for reliability. On Sunday, July 30, PPP reported:

  • View of the Democratic Party: “Favorable” 45%; “Unfavorable” 48%
  • View of Hillary Clinton: “Favorable” 45%; “Unfavorable” 51%
  • View of the Republican Party: “Favorable” 38%; “Unfavorable” 55%
  • View of Donald Trump: “Favorable” 36%; “Unfavorable” 58%

The results of the hypothetical question, “If the election were held today,” show Clinton 46%; Trump 41%; Gary Johnson 6%; Jill Stein 2%.

As to the remaining “Undecided” voters, totaling about 5%, they do not like Clinton (4% “Favorable;” 83% “Unfavorable), nor do they like Trump (2% “Favorable;” 89% “Unfavorable”).

The allegation that Trump is in cahoots with Vladimir Putin/Russia in getting WikiLeaks to release embarrassing Democratic Party emails is likely having a negative effect on voter opinion, as only 7% of Americans view Putin favorably, to 69% who see him negatively.

Trump Scores Historic First Negative “Likely to Vote For”

On Monday morning, August 1, Gallup reported that more Americans have a “More Favorable” view of the Democratic Party (44%) after the convention than of the Republican Party (35%).

  • Democratic Party: 44% “More Favorable;” 42% “Less Favorable”
  • Clinton’s speech rated “Excellent/Good” by 44%; “Poor/Terrible” by 20%
  • Republican Party: 35% “More Favorable;” 52% “Less Favorable”
  • Trump’s speech rated “Excellent/Good” by 35%; “Poor/Terrible” by 36%

American adults participating in the survey said that they are “More Likely” (45%) than “Less Likely” (41%) to vote for Hillary Clinton after the conventions. The survey showed that Americans are “Less Likely” (51%) rather than “More Likely” (36%) to vote for Donald Trump.

Gallup has measured the national conventions for over three decades. The 2016 Republican convention is the first since 1984 that the percentage of Americans have said they are "less likely" rather than "more likely" to vote for a party's presidential nominee as a result of what they saw or heard about the convention.

Today, August 1, 2016, the Real Clear Politics national average of all polls measuring the head-to-head race for the presidency shows Clinton with 44.9%; Trump with 42.7%. The latest North Carolina presidential average is very close to the national numbers, with Clinton at 44% and Trump at 42%.

IMPLICATIONS: Democrats did a far better job launching their nominee for president at the convention in Philadelphia than the GOP did at their convention in Cleveland. However, due to the hyper-volatility of the 2016 presidential election and the game-changing vulnerabilities of both nominees, the likely winner will be unpredictable until Election Day, November 8, 2016.

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JDPR TrendLines is an executive summary feature of the John Davis Political Report. The objective is to provide readers timely assessments of the political implications of the latest opinion polls and breaking news.

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