John Davis Consulting

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Next President of the United States … John Kasich, Republican of Ohio

Since January, this series of reports on the likely next U.S. President has unfolded by process of elimination. It concludes today, Labor Day, September 7, 2015, with my forecast.

September 7, 2015       Vol. VIII, No. 13         10:13 am

The United States needs a President who is experienced in both the creation of private wealth and the distribution of public wealth through government. One who is temperamentally suited for principled compromise as the best hope of solving the two most important problems of the day, according to Gallup, not enough income and too much government.

The nation does not need a belittler-in-chief, nor does it need a soft-spoken neurosurgeon with an inspiring personal story but lacking in experience in important problems of the day.

The nation does not need a leader elected just because of their race, ethnicity or gender. It does not need a leader who thinks that sticking to your beliefs even if it means shutting down the government is more important than principled compromise.

The United States needs a wise government leader. One who knows that private sector prosperity is the financial wherewithal for public sector progress. Nothing grows out of an estrangement and distrust between business and the White House but hundreds of billions of dollars in un-invested surplus private funds, stagnant wages and an $18 trillion sovereign debt.

The nation does not need a leader from a political dynasty. There are simply too many incestuous relationships with family insiders who aided and abetted in the creation of today’s major problems. Income. Government. Insiders with failed ideas and self-serving agendas.

The United States needs a great government leader. One who knows government at all levels well enough to identify the thousands of opportunities to fix the problems with the effective distribution of public wealth without making things worse. One who understands the dynamics of private sector wealth formulation from small retailers to globally competitive manufacturers.

One who has the know-how to stimulate real personal income growth for all Americans.

Finally, the nation needs a leader who inspires the best in each of us. An optimistic sense of unlimited potential. Personal and national. Compassion for the less fortunate.

Republicans begin the 2016 presidential race with a major structural advantage, the fact that American voters do not give the party in the White House a third term. The only exception to that since the post WWII Truman administration was the 1988 election of Republican President George Herbert Walker Bush following the Reagan administration.

Democrats also have structural advantages, including the number of loyal Democratic states and national demographic trends favoring minorities and younger generations of voters. According to an analysis in Politico, Democrats have a lock on 247 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. Republicans can count on 206 Electoral College votes from GOP-friendly states.

After carefully weighing all structural advantages and the nation’s most important problems against the backgrounds, temperaments, political strengths and weaknesses of all current Democrats and Republicans running for president, I have concluded that John Kasich, Republican Governor of Ohio, is most likely to be the next President of the United States.

John Kasich, from McKees Rocks, Pennsylvania

John Kasich was born and raised in McKees Rocks, Pennsylvania.

He is a small-town Republican who won a second term in 2014 as Governor of Ohio, the 7^th largest state in the country, with 64% of the vote, including blue-collar Democrats.

He is experienced in both the creation of private wealth (Lehman Brothers) and the distribution of public wealth through government (Member of Congress 18 years; two-term Governor of Ohio).

His many bipartisan legislative successes in Washington and Columbus make him temperamentally suited for principled compromise, the best hope of solving the problems of income and government.

He chaired the U.S. House Budget Committee in 1997 that balanced the federal budget. As Governor of Ohio, he erased the state’s $8 billion shortfall, reformed education and created a $2 billion rainy day fund.

Yes, I am aware of his “prickliness.” But his record of bipartisan support in a swing state that voted for Obama twice speaks well to my point that he is temperamentally suited for principled compromise.

There is no greater personal leadership quality desired by voters today than authenticity. Someone who speaks their mind. Someone who can be trusted, even if they are a bit prickly.

Here are some highlights of his story from Wikipedia:

• John Kasich was born May 13, 1952, and raised in McKees Rocks, Pennsylvania, a working-class suburb of Pittsburgh
• Father delivered mail; Mother worked at the post office
• Both parents were killed in an automobile accident by a drunk driver
• Ohio State University, BA in Political Science, 1974
• Elected to the Ohio Senate in 1978 at the age of 26; youngest ever
• Only Republican in the U.S. in 1982 to defeat an incumbent Democrat for Congress
• Served 18 years in the U.S. House from 1983-2001
• In 1996, he introduced the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act, which reformed the nation’s welfare system
• As chair of the U.S. House Budget Committee in 1997, Kasich was the architect of the first balanced federal budget since 1969
• Lehman Brothers Investment Banking Division Managing Director 2001-2008
• Hosted Fox News’ Heartland with John Kasich; guest-hosted for Bill O’Reilly
• Elected Governor of Ohio, November 2, 2010
• Reelected in 2014 with a 30-point margin (64% landslide)
• Won 86 of 88 counties in a swing state carried twice by President Obama
• Eliminated Ohio’s $8 billion budget shortfall; increased rainy day fund to $2 billion
• Has big name endorsements like New Hampshire’s John Sununu, Mississippi’s Trent Lott; Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley; NBA great Charles Barkley

Also-Rans include Good People with Inspiring Personal Stories

It is regrettable that someone as good and inspiring as Ben Carson must be included on the list of Republicans likely to be among the “also-rans” in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. However, a neurosurgeon’s skill is not what is needed in the Oval Office at a time when personal income and the federal government are the nation’s biggest problems.

Carson, among the early frontrunners in the polls, has no experience with managing the complexities of large governmental agencies, no experience with building principled compromise among feuding legislative factions, no experience with the creation of private wealth on the national and international levels, no experience in working with foreign governments to manage delicate differences without resorting to war, and no experience with managing a necessary war.

Carson would certainly agree that it took an extraordinary level of competence gained from decades of experience for him to successfully separate conjoined twins without creating a problem greater than the original challenge. Fixing a complex and deeply flawed government successfully also requires a steady hand and surgical precision that can only come from decades of experience in government at all levels.

Carson is a good man, a brilliant neurosurgeon with an inspiring personal story. That’s not enough. The problem with government today was created by good men and women who were very intelligent and gifted orators, most with inspiring personal stories.

Also-Rans likely to include the U.S. Senators, the Perennials, the Scandal-Plagued and the Belittler-in-Chief

With all due respect, any candidate whose legislative and executive governmental experience is as limited as that of President Obama’s will not likely to be president. Fitting that profile are those serving their first term in the U.S. Senate with no other executive or legislative governmental experience like Ted Cruz from Texas and Rand Paul from Kentucky.

Like Obama, both are passionate orators and very smart. Cruz is a Harvard lawyer. Paul is a Duke ophthalmologist. They have great ideas. But American voters have concluded that every politician has great ideas. That great ideas are a dime a dozen.

Cruz and Paul have little to show for their service in the Senate, at a time when America needs an accomplished legislative and executive leader. The reason they have so little to show is because they do not believe in principled compromise.

Anyone who devalues principled compromise will not even make the VP short list.

Also-rans will likely include perennial candidates like former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, along with Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who would have been on the short list of the most promising contenders, will be tripped up politically for years due to the fallout of the Bridgegate scandal. Although he has not been implicated in criminal wrongdoing, the investigations opened up a can of worms of other allegations of misuse of power.

Donald Trump, the current frontrunner for the GOP presidential nod in most polls, will likely make the “also-rans” list. Trump certainly has the experience with the creation of wealth and income growth at the national and international levels. But the biggest problem is government.

Trump is not temperamentally suited to building principled compromise among those charged by the voters to solve the problem of big government responsibly. Our problems are too great to be entrusted to a Belittler-in-Chief.

Carly Fiorina definitely makes the potential VP short list. She is a confident, scrappy combatant, and has thoughtful answers to policy questions. However, her lack of government experience is a major problem. A brilliant government leader with no business management experience could not run a Fortune 500 company. Likewise, a brilliant Fortune 500 executive with no experience in the intricacies of government is incapable of managing Washington DC.

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio is Kasich’s Ideal Vice Presidential Pick

First-term U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, who won in 2010 with a 19-point advantage, does have legislative experience. He served in the Florida House from 2000 – 2008; Speaker 2006-2008.

That legislative experience, in a major swing state, the 3^rd largest state in the U.S. with a $77 billion budget, along with his Hispanic heritage, his youthful enthusiasm and intelligent answers to policy questions (J.D. degree cum laude U. of Miami), puts him high on the potential VP list.

A Kasich-Rubio ticket would be very powerful, bringing two large swing states into the GOP Electoral College fold.

In my next report, I will write about how a Kasich-Rubio ticket would solve the biggest problem faced by Republican nominees for president in the past twenty years, namely, the inability to persuade voters who were struggling financially that they cared about them.

I will also write about how a Kasich-Rubio ticket would break through the Democrats blue wall of defense, those predictably friendly states and the nation’s demographic trends.

Meanwhile, I would like to conclude today with this thought: If government is the problem, as Gallup’s research has shown all year, and 535 principled Members of Congress plus one principled president have failed to solve the problem, then just another cohort of principled leaders in Washington will not change anything.

A lack of principle is not the problem with government, a lack of principled compromise is the problem. Who is temperamentally suited to principled compromise? Kasich-Rubio.

– End –

Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report

John Davis