John Davis Consulting

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Next President of the United States … by Process of Elimination

 Part 7: Trump the Naked Streaker. Bush vs Cruz in Cleveland (like Ford/Reagan 1976); then Bush/Clinton/3^rd Party (1992 Rematch).

This is a series of reports on the race for U.S. President. The series will unfold by process of elimination, interlocked with trends analyses, and conclude with my forecast for the next president on Labor Day.

 August 11, 2015       Vol. VIII, No. 11         2:13 pm

 On Saturday, August 1, 2015, I had the pleasure of moderating a conversation with James Carville and Mary Matalin at the Carolinas Associated General Contractors event in Greenville, South Carolina. Married for 21 years, they live in New Orleans with their two daughters.

Carville and Matalin met during the 1992 presidential campaign, a race won by his Democratic candidate, former Arkansas governor Bill Clinton, with only 43% of the vote. Her Republican candidate, incumbent President George H. W. Bush, lost with 38%. A 3^rd party spoiler named Ross Perot garnered 19% of the vote, most of which would have gone to Bush.

A Bush/Clinton/3^rd Party rematch could happen in 2016: maybe Bush/Clinton/Cruz.

Bush has a lock on mainstream, establishment Republicans. Cruz has the superior political intellect, communication skills and an anti-establishment record as a conservative hard-liner to be one of the last two standing in Cleveland at the GOP National Convention July 18-21, 2016. If so, he will inherit all of the religious right and Tea Party Republicans from early contenders.

If Bush beats Cruz in Cleveland (Ford/Reagan 1976), Cruz will be forced by his formidable and outraged supporters, fueled by billionaire-backed super PACS, to run as an independent.

Pummeling by White, Male Republicans is Key to Clinton’s Hopes

There is no doubt in my mind that Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee. She will survive all scandalous allegations for the same reason her husband survived impeachment relating to the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal: Republican overreach.

On December 19, 1998, after a year of Republican congressional investigations and testimony riddled with salacious details of White House extramarital encounters, the U.S. House voted along partisan lines to impeach President Clinton. The next day, December 20, 1998, Clinton’s approval rating jumped 10 points to 73%, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll.

Restated for emphasis: The day after the Articles of Impeachment were passed, Clinton’s approval rating soared to an all-time high, higher than President Ronald Reagan’s highest approval rating. At the same time, the favorable view of the Republican Party fell ten points.

That’s what is about to happen in 2016.

Fifteen Republican candidates for president piling on Hillary Clinton. Fifteen Republican candidates throwing red meat to the Hillary haters. Fifteen Republican candidates, 14 of whom are men, pummeling Hillary Clinton with vindictive hyperbole.

Then, add all of those white male-led Republican committees in Congress piling on with their investigative hearings on Benghazi and State Department emails.

Hillary Clinton will invite any and all opportunities to be pummeled by white male Republicans because she knows it’s her key to the Oval Office.

Trump’s Real Reason for Running

The pieces of the 2016 presidential puzzle are beginning to fit. The most important piece is dissatisfaction with government, for too long an outrage shared by most Americans, liberals, moderates and conservatives.

Political outrage with government will drive the politics of 2016 at all levels.

Outraged voters do outrageous things. Ergo, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have zero chance of becoming President of the United States. Everyone knows that. They are merely the pre-game entertainment.

Trump is like the streaker during pre-game warmups at the Super Bowl, egged on by his buddies to do what they would not dare do. Run naked out onto the field on national TV. Outraged conservatives have egged Trump on to say what they would not dare say.

Trump is only in the race to promote Trump Entertainment. He has received hundreds of millions of dollars in free advertising world-wide benefiting his casinos and resorts. Trump boasted at the Fox GOP Debate last week about exploiting bankruptcy laws for business gain. In time, he will brag about using presidential politics for business gain.

As a promoter, like P.T. Barnum, Donald Trump is brilliant. However, he has 0% chance of being president, and he knows it. Which is fine by him. That’s not why he is running.

Bush vs. Clinton and 3^rd Party Conservative in 2016

I am well aware of ballot access issues at the state level for independent candidacies, as well as issues relating to the election of electors who elect the President, not the voters. But what is different about 2016 is that billionaires can spend an unlimited amount of money to hire the best election law attorneys to set up a “Plan B” to keep their candidates for president in the running.

Religious and Tea Party economic conservatives were pushed aside in 2014. Mainstream Republicans ran over them; disrespected them. The establishment defeated the hard-liner conservatives in every significant primary battle. They were humiliated. Not again.

In 2016, hard-liner conservatives are going to push back with a vengeance. The Republican National Convention must elect a conservative who can appeal to moderates, not another moderate who can appeal to conservatives, or the hard-liners will bolt and back an independent candidate.

If hard-liners bolt, it will be 1992 all over again: A Bush, a Clinton and a well-funded independent candidate. A match made in heaven for Democrat James Carville; Perot’s votes would have gone to Bush. A nightmare for his future wife, conservative Republican Mary Matalin.

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