John Davis Consulting

November 4, 2014 Election Results a GOP Wave; Final Polls Tell North Carolina U.S. Senate Story

November 5, 2014        Vol. VII, No. 28         7:13 am

Bottom Line: Big night for Republicans in the state and nation, with the driving force in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race being the fact that more voters were concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than were concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.

• North Carolina Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis defeated North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan by 48,501 votes out of a midterm election record turnout of 2,891,363 voters. He will serve in a solid 53-seat Republican majority in the U.S Senate, likely headed by Mitch McConnell, the current Senate Minority Leader.
• Tillis won despite $35,569,285 spent by outside groups on attack ads against him, the most spent against any U.S. Senate candidate in the country in the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country, with $111 million accounted for as of Election Day.
• Hagan raised $22,945,496 to Tillis’ $9,055,347.
• North Carolina’s 13-member delegation to the US House of Representatives will have 10 Republicans and three Democrats. All incumbents won easily, as did newcomers Alma Adams, a Democrat in Democrat Mel Watt’s seat, and David Rouzer, a Republican in Democrat Mike McIntyre’s seat (the one-seat pick up for the GOP). US House 250 Republicans; 185 Democrats.
• North Carolina’s 50-member Senate will have a 34-member Republican super majority, a gain of one, with Democrat Gene McLaurin losing to challenger Tom McInnis. All incumbent Senate Republicans won reelection, and all Open GOP seats were won by Republicans. There will be a 16-member Democratic minority in the state Senate.
• North Carolina’s 120-member House will have 74 Republicans and 46 Democrats. Both chambers maintained their Republican super majorities.
• North Carolina’s 7-member Supreme Court will be led by Chief Justice Mark Martin, a Republican, who will preside over a 4-3 Republican majority. Sam Ervin, a Democrat, defeated Republican Bob Hunter. Justices Robin Hudson and Cheri Beasley, both Democrats, fended off strong Republican challenges.
• North Carolina’s 15-member Court of Appeals will have a Republican majority thanks to former Judge John Tyson’s victory in the 19-candidate race for Democrat Chief Judge John Martin’s seat. Lucy Inman, a Democrat, is the other newcomer to the court (Democrat Bob Hunter is retiring). Judge Mark Davis, a Democrat, won another term handily. Republican Judge Donna Stroud ran unopposed.

Hagan too close to Obama was worse than Tillis being too conservative

Real Clear Politics average on November 3, election eve, showed Hagan up by only 1 point (44.1% to Tillis’ 43%), with the polling average trending to Tillis’ favor. There were two new polls added to the North Carolina mix on the Real Clear Politics site before Election Day: Fox News 10/28-10/31; CNN 10/27-10/30. The Fox poll showed Hagan up by one point (Hagan 43%; Tillis 42%). The CNN poll shows Hagan up by two points (48%/46%).

The new Fox News poll showed that Tillis supporters who were “certain” about their vote had gone up 11 points since mid-September to 92% (up from 81%); Hagan’s “certain” supporters is 88%, up 7 points since mid-September. That suggests to me that conservative hardliners who backed someone else in the GOP primary had gotten over their reluctance to support Tillis.

Another significant comparison is the question, “Is Tillis too conservative” (35%), as compared to the question, “Does Hagan agree with Obama too much” (48%). More voters are concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than are concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.

Select results of the “Does Hagan agree with Obama too much” question by demographics:

• Independent voters: 50% say Too much with Obama; 29% say About right.
• Women voters: 44% say Too much with Obama; 40% say About right.
• White voters: 57% say Too much with Obama; 29% say About right.

Select results of the “Is Tillis too conservative” question by demographics:

• Independent voters are split (34% Tillis is Too conservative; 32% About right)
• Women voters (36% Tillis is Too conservative; 34% About right)
• White voters (33% Tillis is Too conservative; 45% About right)

The new CNN poll showed each candidates’ voter strongholds by gender & white voters:

• Tillis up 12 points among Men (53%/41%)
• Hagan up 16 points among Women (55%/39%)
• Tillis up 26 points among White voters (60%/34%)
• Tillis up 40 points among White men (67%/27%)
• Tillis up 9 points among White women (51%/42%)

Other findings from the CNN survey that clarify each candidates’ greatest potential:

• Hagan up 22 points among Urban voters (59%/37%)
• Tillis up 6 points among Suburban voters; 5 points among Rural voters
• Hagan up 42 points among Moderates (67%/25%)
• Tillis up 59 points among Conservatives (77%/18%)
• Tillis up 3 points among Independent voters (45%/42%)

In the final analysis, more voters were concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than those who were concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.

I am honored that you read my report.

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