Make No Mistake, Hagan Hampered by President; GOP Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends Favor Tillis

by johndavis, October 8, 2014

Make No Mistake, Hagan Hampered by President; GOP Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends Favor Tillis   October 8, 2014        Vol. VII, No. 25         5:13 pm   “Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot,” said President Obama last Thursday, October 2, during a speech at Northwestern University in defense of his administration, “Every single one
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Make No Mistake, Hagan Hampered by President; GOP Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends Favor Tillis

 

October 8, 2014        Vol. VII, No. 25         5:13 pm

 

"Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot,” said President Obama last Thursday, October 2, during a speech at Northwestern University in defense of his administration, “Every single one of them,” he added emphatically.

Democrats cringed all across America. Cringed because they know midterm elections trend against the party in the White House; because they know midterm elections are a referendum on the president. They know this president’s job approval is underwater. Real Clear Politics Oct 8:

North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan has spent her entire campaign staging a distraction from her association with Obama and federal problems that have festered on their watch, deflecting attention to state problems that have festered on Tillis’ watch. Then President Obama’s speech at Northwestern University last Thursday. "Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot.”

“Every single one of them.” Collective cringe among Hagan Democrats.

Here in North Carolina, President Obama’s job approval is 41.4%, with 52.6% of likely voters disapproving, according to a new Suffolk University/USA Today statewide survey. Hagan’s job approval is also under water: 42.4% approve; 46.6% disapprove.

Fortunately for Hagan, her Republican opponent, Thom Tillis, has lousy numbers when it comes to Favorable/Unfavorable voter opinions. Tillis is seen favorably by 37.8% in the Suffolk University/USA Today survey conducted Oct. 4-7; 44% see him unfavorably.

However, Hagan is seen more unfavorably than Tillis (47% unfavorable); but has a higher favorable perception: 42.2% to his 37.8%.

As for Obama, 53.4% of likely North Carolina voters see him unfavorably; 44.4% favorably. Now you know what’s behind the Tom Tillis mantra: Hagan voted with Obama 95% of the time.

Gallup: Republicans have Major Advantage on Motivation/Enthusiasm

 

Not only are midterm elections a referendum on the president, who happens to be an unpopular Democrat in 2014, midterm elections also disfavor turnout among traditional Democratic constituencies like African-Americans, single women and young voters. They simply lack presidential year fervor. They stay home in droves.

Today, October 8, 2014, Gallup came out with a new study showing Republicans with a +12-point advantage among voters who have given either “quite a lot or some” thought to the elections this fall. Other indicators friendly to Republicans in 2014, from today’s Gallup study:

  • Republicans have a +19-point advantage among voters “Extremely” motivated to vote.
  • Republicans have a +18-point advantage among voters. “More enthusiastic” about voting

Republicans on Track to Neutralize the Democrats’ Ground Game

 

If there is a game changer in the 2014 general election it is likely to be a superior GOP ground game that neutralizes the digital voter communications and turnout advantage Democrats established in 2008 and 2012. That potential is the result of an early commitment by the RNC to an in-house tech incubator called Para Bellum Labs, complete with 50 geeks and the best hardware and software money can buy, along with the allied support of organizations like Americans for Prosperity, who have committed tens of millions of dollars just to a ground game in 2014.

Of course, the Democrats are not ignoring the opportunity in 2014 to keep their digital advantage. They are operating under an umbrella called Project Ivy, scaling the highly successful Obama data-mining, contact and turnout operation to campaigns like North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race. And, there are many allied groups from unions to Planned Parenthood spending tens of millions of dollars to turn out African-Americans, single women and young voters.

Never doubt the ability of Democrats to turn out their voters in 2014.

Never doubt the ability of Republicans to match or surpass the Democrats’ turnout in 2014.

Further complicating turnout for Democrats is the fact that all of the most politically significant new Republican election laws have been upheld by state and federal courts. Limited early voting days, voter IDs and no straight-party voting are still on the books all over America.

So, with a combination of midterm election year trends more negative to Democrats, low job approval numbers for the Democratic president and Democratic Senator Hagan, an anemic interest in the election this fall among rank and file Democrats, and courts consistently upholding new Republican election law changes, you can see why Hagan’s lead has slipped to only 2 points in the Suffolk University/USA Today poll, and why Thom Tillis is on track to win the senate race.

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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report JND Signature John N. Davis

 

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