Wake County Democrats May Determine Next U.S. Senate Majority with Hagan Turnout Duties August 27, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 20 3:13 pm Last Friday, August 22, 2014, Wake County was projected to have 1 million residents. That’s good news for Democrats, as urban voters almost always favor them over the GOP. Urban voters tend
Wake County Democrats May Determine Next U.S. Senate Majority with Hagan Turnout Duties
August 27, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 20 3:13 pm
Last Friday, August 22, 2014, Wake County was projected to have 1 million residents. That’s good news for Democrats, as urban voters almost always favor them over the GOP. Urban voters tend to be more moderate than conservative, more pro-government than anti-government, more independent than partisan; they are more diverse demographically and are more tolerant socially.
By way of illustration, in 2012, although the state was carried by GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney (it was his closest win), President Obama carried most urban counties by wide margins. Wake County voted for Obama 55% to 44%; Mecklenburg County by 61% to 38%; Guilford County 58% to 41%; Durham County 76% to 23%; Forsyth County 53% to 46%; Orange County 70% to 28%; Pitt County 53% to 46%; Buncombe County 56% to 43%; Cumberland County 60% to 40%.
So strong are the urban counties for Democrats in North Carolina, a full half of Pres. Obama’s vote came from only 8 of the state’s 100 counties.
As to the future, Demographic forecasters have concluded that urban growth will continue well into the century, and that most of the growth will be driven by newcomers moving to urban areas. That growth has shifted North Carolina to the center of the partisan advantage scale.
Turnout in urban counties is critical to Kay Hagan and other statewide Democrats in 2014.
Gallup Says Democrats have Lost 10-Point Party Advantage Since 2008
Gallup revealed today, August 27, 2014, in a new report, North Carolina’s Political and Economic Environment in 2014, that “… about as many North Carolinians lean or identify Democratic (42%) as they do Republican (41%).
The good news for Republicans in today’s Gallup study is that Democrats have lost their 10 percentage point advantage over Republicans in 2008 (49% t0 39%), the year Kay Hagan won her U.S. Senate seat. Now you know why the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is investing tens of millions of dollars on TV and turnout in North Carolina.
On Wednesday, August 13, 2013, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched a $9 million TV ad buy attacking Thom Tillis. That investment is their largest of the election cycle. The Senate Majority PAC, directed by Majority Leader Harry Reid, has already invested $7 million on Hagan’s behalf.
The best thing going for Hagan is that women make up well over half of the electorate and women tend to prefer Democrats over Republicans … especially women who are unmarried. The only problem is, unmarried women do not vote in midterm election years. Neither do young people or African-Americans. Midterm election years are historically dominated by older voters who are more conservative, more married and more likely to vote Republican.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s turnout model in 2014 is called the Bannock Street Project. They are spending $60 million in 10 states (including North Carolina) to hire 4000 paid staff to try to solve the turnout problem among women, Latino and African-American voters in midterm election years.
- Democrats are trying to engage single women by running ads that focus on abortion and contraception coverage
- In North Carolina, Democrats are micro-targeting African-Americans, “using the same Voter Activation Network database as Pres. Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign”
According to the Washington Times story, July 6, 2014, Democrats microtarget blacks in South in effort to keep Senate, “the North Carolina NAACP is deploying about 50 organizers across the state for the next 10 weeks.”
The story quotes Hagan campaign spokesman Chris Hayden as saying, “we are building the biggest and most effective turnout organization North Carolina has ever seen in a Senate race.”
But the Democratic Party of North Carolina is in shambles. Who can assume the responsibility of turning out Democrats in 2014, knowing that their success or failure will determine the majority in the U.S. Senate? Ladies and gentlemen, may I introduce the Wake County Democratic Party.
Wake County Democratic Party has Spent $1.56 Million for Hagan Turnout
The best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1. They are clearly on that track, and it’s all being run out of the Wake County Democratic Party.
Since March 2014, the Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee has received $1,631,025, and has spent $1,563,534, almost all on “Office Rent” at 24 county headquarters around the state and “Salary” expenses for over 100 employees.
- Just in the month of July, the Wake County Democrats received $585,487
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee contributed $523,067of the July total
- DSCC has contributed $1,345,559 to Wake County Democrats since March
So what are Wake County Democrats doing with $1,631,025? You can get a good idea by taking a look at the July Disbursements, Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee, which shows what was spent from July 1, 2014 through July 31, 2014.
- “Office Rent” was paid for space in Charlotte, Asheville, Santa Anna California, Cary, Zebulon, Fayetteville, High Point, Greensboro, Sanford, Chapel Hill, Salisbury, Wilmington, Greenville, Gastonia, Conover, Durham, Statesville, Selma, Rocky Mount, Jacksonville, Concord, Southmont, Rutherfordton, Carrboro, Hendersonville
- “Salary” was paid to over 100 employees in July throughout the state
Democratic Party of NC Received only $19,061 from Individuals in 2nd Q
While the Wake County Democratic Party was reporting $585,487 income for July only, the Democratic Party of North Carolina reported $417,848 for the entire 2nd Quarter. Individuals contributed only $19,061 during the 2nd Quarter. All of the top 10 contributors to the state party in the 2nd Quarter are members of the General Assembly:
|Sen. Josh Stein||$57,500||Year to Date $157,000|
|Rep. Larry Hall||$50,000||Year to Date $435,120|
|Sen. Dan Blue||$50,000||Year to Date $65,000|
|Sen. Floyd McKissick||$30,000||Year to Date $38,000|
|Rep. Grier Martin||$20,000||Year to Date $31,750|
|Rep. Verla Insko||$15,000||Year to Date $64,650|
|Rep. Darren Jackson||$15,000||Year to Date $36,000|
|Rep. Michael Wray||$10,000||Year to Date $19,778|
|Sen. Ben Clark||$7500||Year to Date $15,000|
|Rep. Joel Ford||$7500||Year to Date $12,500|
Take a look at the complete list of contributors to the Democratic Party of North Carolina and you will see the scant number of Individuals contributing the $19,061 during the 2nd Quarter. Only $225,117 has been contributed by Individuals to the state party the entire election cycle.
In a state like North Carolina, a battleground state where both parties are tied in the number of loyalists, the candidate who wins the ground game wins the election.
On the turnout front, more good news for Republicans from Gallup today … and problematic news for Democrats … in that “Republicans (42%) are much more engaged than Democrats (27%) in the election at this point.”
The best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1 focused primarily on urban voters. They are clearly on that track, and it’s all being run out of the Wake County Democratic Party.
- End -
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor