John Davis Political Report Primary Forecasts Spot On; General Election Races Equally Predictable

by johndavis, May 7, 2014

May 7, 2014        Vol. VII, No. 12          9:13 am FORECAST: GOP-Friendly Midterm Election Year January 3: On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court,
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May 7, 2014        Vol. VII, No. 12          9:13 am

FORECAST: GOP-Friendly Midterm Election Year

January 3: On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC.”

That “possibility” is now a probability. The difference? GOP unity and enthusiasm during a midterm election year when the party in the White House always loses most of the close races.

FORECAST: Rouzer will win congressional race; will join U.S. House majority

Other key notes from the January 3, 2014 John Davis Political Report:

What is probable is that David Rouzer, a former state Senator from Johnston County who almost defeated incumbent Robeson County Democrat Congressman Mike McIntyre in 2012, will achieve his goal of representing the 7th Congressional District with a 2014 win. The other 9 Republican held districts will stay in the hands of Republicans, giving the GOP a total of 10 of the 13 North Carolina congressional districts.

Rouzer will almost certainly join a Republican majority U.S. House of Representatives, as the 233-201 GOP advantage will be too great a challenge for Democrats during a mid-term election year. The party in the White House has lost an average of 30 seats in the U.S. House over the past 21 midterm elections, and an average of 4 seats in the U.S. Senate.

PRIMARY RESULTS: David Rouzer defeated Woody White 53% to 41%.

FORECAST: Tillis will win primary outright; likely to upset Hagan in November

January 10: On January 10, 2014, in the John Davis Political Report titled, North Carolina's U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan, I began making the case that Thom Tillis, Speaker of the NC House, would likely win the nomination outright and would be one of the six net gains for U.S. Senate Republicans needed for a majority. Several of the points for a Tillis upset over incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan:

 But the most important argument was under the subheading, Hagan cannot count on a divided Republican Party. Key quotes from the January 10, 2014 John Davis Political Report:

Of course, the great hope of Brannon/Harris/Flynn/Grant is to force a primary runoff by ganging up on Tillis with enough outside super PAC attack ads that keep his vote below 40%. However, the odds are greater that they will splinter the hard right conservatives and Tillis will parlay a sizable cash and organizational advantage into a primary victory on May 6, 2014.

Tillis’ legislative accomplishments are such that it will simply be too difficult for any Republican to get very far with an attempt to discredit his commitment to the conservative cause. In other words, even his on primary detractors will not likely stay divided against him for long. They want to defeat Hagan.

The Shutdown last December taught most Republicans two important lessons: one, bitter ideological divisions hurt them more than the Democrats; two, just saying no without an alternative proposal is not acceptable to most Americans as leadership.

PRIMARY RESULTS: Thom Tillis won the nomination outright with 46%, defeating Tea Party favorite Greg Brannon (27%) and social conservative favorite Mark Harris (18%).

FORECAST: GOP-led government shutdown galvanized Republicans against hard right

January 16: On January 16, 2014, in the John Davis Political Report titled, How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover, I began making the case that the October 2013 federal government shutdown was the straw that broke the camel’s back among Republicans; a pivotal event that galvanized the GOP against ideological extremism and set them on a course for a 2014 takeover of the U.S. Senate.

Key quotes from the January 16, 2014 John Davis Political Report:

 The GOP’s failure to take back the White House and U.S. Senate in 2012 sparked a year of bitter feuding.  Establishment conservatives and Tea Party insurgents blamed each other for destroying yet another opportunity to right the nation’s ship. But, then came October 1, 2013; the day of the government shutdown. A fiasco that damaged Republicans so badly that it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate in 2014.

 Voters blamed the Republican Party. Ten times more than the Democrats.

 Question 5: Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and groups. I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.

Public Figures/Groups                                  Gallup October 25-28, 2013

Total Positive

Total Negative

The Democratic Party

37%

40%

Barack Obama

41%

45%

Ted Cruz

19%

30%

Mitch McConnell

11%

28%

Harry Reid

17%

34%

The Tea Party Movement

23%

47%

John Boehner

17%

43%

The Republican Party

22%

53%

There you have it.  The Democratic Party’s net positive (37%) over negative (40%) is a negative 3%. The Republican Party’s net positive (22%) over negative (53%) is a negative 31%.

 The 2013 shutdown fiasco could have been the death knell for Republican political dreams. Instead, it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP U.S. Senate takeover in 2014.

PRIMARY RESULTS: Thom Tillis won the nomination out right with 46%, defeating Tea Party favorite Greg Brannon (27%) and social conservative favorite Mark Harris (18%).

No Tea Party primary challenger defeated an incumbent member of congress on May 6.

FORECAST: An incumbent-friendly election year

January 31: On January 31, 2014, in the John Davis Political Report titled, January Surprise: National and State GOP Leaders Shifting from Stonewalling to Winning Elections, I noted that political trends from the Virginia and New Jersey elections in 2013 were reliable predictors for North Carolina in 2014.

Key quotes from the January 31, 2014 John Davis Political Report:

Here are the predictive trends from those states for North Carolina in 2014:

 (1) Partisan power in the state legislature will stay as is; (2) Almost all incumbents will win their races; (3) Outside independent expenditures will favor the party in power; (4) Non-presidential year low turnout can be expected; (5) Conservative hard-liners out of favor in state-wide races.

 Based on trends from 2013 and early indicators of likely advantages, like incumbency, fundraising and non-presidential election year turnout, here are a few forecasts for North Carolina:

  • Because legislative and congressional districts are drawn so clearly in the favor of one party, almost all of those races will be over in May … and will not be close
  • All congressional incumbents seeking another term will win their primary races and the general election by 10% or more
  • David Rouzer, R-Johnston County, will win the GOP primary in the 7th Congressional District by around 10% over Woody White, R-New Hanover
  • Republicans will maintain their super majorities in the NC Senate and House

PRIMARY RESULTS:

  • All incumbent members of the North Carolina congressional delegation won
  • The races were not close, with supposedly competitive races like the challenge to Congresswoman Renee Ellmers ending in a 59%/42% win for Ellmers.
  • David Rouzer v. Woody White, another supposedly competitive race (for Mike McIntyre’s seat), was a slam dunk victory (53%/41%).
  • No surprise that Rep. Alma Adams, a Guilford County Democrat, won the U.S. House 12 race outright for the seat held since 1992 by former Congressman Mel Watt. I told every audience this year that she would get all of the female voters in the district and that the four Mecklenburg County male candidates would split that county’s votes.
  • Only four incumbents in the 170-member NC General Assembly lost: 2 Democrats (Sen. Clark Jenkins, Edgecombe; Rep. Annie Mobley) and two Republicans (Rep. Robert Brawley, Iredell; Rep. Roger Younts, Davidson)
  • No one is surprised that the open U.S. House 6 race, held since 1985 by Guilford County Republican Howard Coble, ended with no one getting the 40% required to avoid a runoff.

Well, there you have it.

On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC.”

That “possibility” is now a probability. The difference? GOP unity and enthusiasm during a midterm election year when the party in the White House always loses most of the close races.

- End –

Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report

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 John N. Davis, Editor

 

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