John Davis Consulting

Voter Enthusiasm/Volunteerism favoring Republicans in 2012 as Young American Voters facing 50% Underemployment No Longer Excited about Obama

“The Democratic advantage in net new registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 in North Carolina has plummeted from 54% to 19.5%.  The Republican share of net new registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 has increased from 6% to 24.6%”  John Davis Political Report, August 15, 2012

 Post: Wednesday, August 15, 2012       Vol. V, No. 25      12:13 pm

No Enthusiastic Volunteers.  No Victory.

This report is a continuation of the John Davis Political Report series on the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party, deficiencies that severely limit their ability to keep Republicans from dominating all branches of state government after the 2012 elections.

Thus far, I have written about the loss of political power, loss of the political fundraising advantage, loss of a majority of legislative and congressional districts, loss of strong leaders, loss of unity and the loss of the North Carolina business and agribusiness communities.  I consider the latter the greatest loss.  A statewide loss of influential leaders.  Contributions.

Today, I am adding the loss of enthusiastic young voters.  The Democratic Party has lost their most reliable source of ground game volunteers.  Unemployed.  Underemployed.

No enthusiastic volunteers.  No voter registration advantage.  No turnout advantage.  No victory.

 Hope and Change 2.0

According to a Gallup poll released July 25, only 39% of Democrats are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to 51% of Republicans.  Gallup’s report used phrases like “Democratic voting enthusiasm down sharply” and “Democrats are significantly less” enthusiastic than in 2008.  Least enthusiastic: young unemployed/underemployed voters.

Daniel Henninger, The Wall Street Journal columnist, wrote an opinion piece on August 2, 2012 titled Hope and Change 2.0 in which he concluded that President Obama has “knocked four years of earning power off a lot of people’s lives,” especially young people.

Henninger noted a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that found 18-to-34-year-old voters 19% below all voters in the country in expressing a “high interest in this year’s elections.”  He linked the loss of enthusiasm to the following economic nightmare:

• Americans 18-to-24-years-old face nearly 16% unemployment; overall rate 8.3%
• Associated Press study concludes that youth underemployment is 50%
• Student debt is over $1 trillion per Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Time reported in March that an astounding 21.6% of Americans ages 25 to 34 are living with their parents.  That’s 5.9 million young adults.  Six in 10 parents said they provide financial assistance to “adult children who are no longer students.”  Enthusiastic Obama volunteers?

Youth employment in America is at a 60-year low according to an April 19, 2012 NPR story, Educated And Jobless: What’s Next For Millennials, “Only 55 percent of people ages 16 to 29 have a job — the lowest percentage since World War II.  New numbers out this week say people under 35 are worth 68 percent less than they were 25 years ago.”

The Obama campaign is counting on young enthusiastic volunteers to use a new online organizing site called Dashboard to “empower you to take on a major role in this campaign.”

I suspect that young voters will only become empowered when they get a job that allows them to move out of their parent’s home and begin paying their own way to their dreams.  Meanwhile …

No enthusiastic volunteers.  No voter registration advantage.  No turnout advantage.  No victory.

 Will NC GOP’s “Victory 2012” Beat Obama’s “Dashboard” Ground Game?

Obama carried North Carolina in 2008 because of a well organized and managed voter registration and turnout operation manned by enthusiastic young volunteers.  If Republicans take away that single advantage, or at least neutralize it, they will continue what they started in 2010: securing majority party status in all three branches of North Carolina state government.

The North Carolina Republican Party’s counter to the Obama camps “Dashboard” is “Victory 2012,” a joint voter registration and turnout operation backed by the state GOP, the Republican National Committee and the Mitt Romney presidential campaign.

“Victory 2012” now boasts 20 regional paid field directors and office locations.  “One Team, One Goal, One Victory,” the state GOP’s winning war cry from 2010, their most successful political year since 1896, now appears on everything coming out of state headquarters.

The Obama camp has twice as many headquarters in North Carolina as the GOP.  So, who is winning the battle for new voters in 2012?  And, how do the results to date compare to 2008?

Four years ago, January 2008 – August 2008, there were 316,746 net new voters registered:

• 171,955 new Democrats (54%)
• 20,363 new Republicans (6%)
• 123,605 new Unaffiliated Voters (39%)
• 823 new Libertarians (.03%)

From January 2012 through August 11, 2012, there were 179,011 net new voters registered:

• 34,904 new Democrats (19.5%)
• 44,019 new Republicans (24.6%)
• 97,393 new Unaffiliated voters (55.9%)
• 2,695 new Libertarians (.015%)

The Democratic advantage in net new registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 in North Carolina has plummeted from 54% to 19.5%.  The Republican share of net new registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 has increased from 6% to 24.6%.

The young enthusiastic Obama voters from 2008 have not abandoned the cause of hope and change, they have become disenchanted with the leader of the cause.  Without them, Obama cannot carry North Carolina in 2012.  Without them he cannot win a second term as president of the United States of America.

No enthusiastic volunteers.  No voter registration advantage.  No turnout advantage.  No victory.

 – END –